It seems the trusty weather models have pulled a fast one over local weathercasters. In the darkness of night they threw a curveball and now accumulating snow seems to be on its way. The Star Tribune stands out on this forecast, calling for 3-6 inches. Most others are in the 2-3 inch range. Here's the latest projections as of Thursday morning:
WCCO: Snow beginning very late this p.m. 2-4 inches.
KSTP: 1-2 inches in metro by mid-day Friday. SW metro could see 3 inches.
FOX: 2-3 inches SW metro, about 2 inches metro, lesser amounts, NE metro
KARE: 2-4 inches. Highest amounts in SW metro
Star Tribune: "Expect about 3", but as much as 6 in the south and west metro (from front-page video)
NWS: 2-3 inches
MPR/Updraft Blog: Metro accumulations were not clearly presented. Looks like no more than 3 inches.
They don't know what is happening. It seems the models they rely on are about a trustworthy as my mother's arthritic knee.
ReplyDeleteI don't even know why they try. As my father once said, "the only profession that can get paid six figures to be wrong 100% of the time - I sure chose a bum profession in comparison."
And now tonight on WCCO the guy throws out "yeah, the models are suggesting possibly a foot or more of snow for New Year's". Why the heck do they need to throw that in? That is a week away.
Wow. Yesterday, the NWS was calling for 20% of snow at all, now it's 90% and 1-3 inches, 2-4 just southwest of the Metro? They Obviously didn't see that one coming. No One did really, except Paul Douglas, who wasn't even that confident on anything over an inch or two.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, I'm very Interested in New Years storm that they're talking about. Nearly all of them are getting excited over a week away, should be a big one
Actually, Paul Douglas didn't get back on board the snow forecast until late last night. They were all looking at the same models.
ReplyDeleteYep, they're all talking about a New Years storm now. That forecast will get graded whether or not it happens because all are starting to hype it.
Bill, I'm just wondering what credentials or atmospheric science/meteorology education and training you have? It seems very bold of you to grade and critique experienced professional meteorologists, especially in Minnesota where the weather is so unpredictable.
ReplyDeleteI have no weather credentials, nor do I try to portray that I do. This is meant to be a fun, for-amusement-only site that gives the average person a chance to see how local forcasters performed.
ReplyDeleteHats off to you Bill. As someone who works outdoors, I can tell you that I pay a lot of attention to the forecasters and they are wrong so much of the time. I think people who don't pay much attention to them actually think they do a pretty accurate job, I'm guessing because they aren't as affected by the weather directly as someone who has do deal with it all day long in their work life. I am glad you are doing this, because it makes me realize I'm not the only one who notices how inept they ALL are. I also like it because it shows how much they hype each storm like it's the end of the world when all it is is a little snow. Paul Douglas is the worst violator by the way. I really don't know why he's still hanging around the Twin Cities anymore. I thought he has family out east that he wanted to be closer to. Come on Paul. Go back home, we don't need you.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the feedback. Sometimes I wonder why I'm doing this. :-)
ReplyDelete