Friday, February 18, 2011

Confidence on the Increase for Major Sunday Snowstorm

Approximately 24 hours before the anticipated arrival of a major snowstorm,  forecaster consensus was growing that the Twin Cities is in for a big hit.


More snow? (photo courtesy Fuzzy Mutt Photos)
Virtually all weathercasters predicted at least five inches of snow. Any threat of mixed precipitation now appears relegated to well south of the Twin Cities. On the conservative end, KARE has acknowledged that "a half foot is not looking all that improbable." Others think accumulations will be closer to 10 inches, and in some cases, closer to a foot. Most forecasters anticipated the biggest snow amounts to fall south of the metro, though the Strib's blog suggests the heaviest amounts will be north of the metro.

Here's the latest summary of what the weather outlets were thinking (a complete, historical record of predictions for this storm can be found here).

WCCO: 5-10+
KSTP: 6+ inches very likely (and probably conservative) for MSP
Fox: 6 to 10 inches. Thinks it may be closer to 10.
KARE: "A half foot not looking all that improbable."
Strib: 7 to 12 inches; highest amounts in north metro
NWS: 5 to 10 inches
MPR: 6 to 12 inches

Check back for updates or follow us on Twitter and Facebook to get the latest on how the forecasters see this evolving "snow event."
Posted by at

12 comments:

  1. randyinchamplinFebruary 19, 2011 at 12:56 AM

    OK here is what the various models are hinting at:
    From a program call bufkit the GFS has 17.6 but with compaction 11.3, the name has 15.9 but with compaction 10.8. From the Short Range Ensemble Forecast ( SREF) off of it's plume site 16.7, but no compaction is noted.

    The European is a educated guess, that I had to hand calculated based on precipitation and temperature profiles, but it appears to be in 15-17 range.

    Good luck forecasters!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. BillFebruary 19, 2011 at 1:00 AM

    That brings up a good question. Are the forecasters predicting total amounts or amounts after compaction?

    ReplyDelete
  3. randyinchamplinFebruary 19, 2011 at 1:37 AM

    That I'm not sure of, no idea sorry

    ReplyDelete
  4. big daddyFebruary 19, 2011 at 2:04 AM

    First Yeah!(winter is making a come back).Second it is hiliarious what Paul Douglas said monday I do 'NOT' think we see a foot of snow just a couple of slushy inches(whos eating crow now)not only does he have a foot on the top end he is mentioning 20" totals as close as St.Cloud,bill for this fact alone he doesnt get a grade higher then a B. Also randyinchamplin you are on to something I believe numbers are climbing as well and you will see that everyone will have 10" as the lowest number and 18" as the highest.Is it me or does Kare11 just pussy-foot around with totals,never a concrete number(that should effect their grade)

    ReplyDelete
  5. randyinchamplinFebruary 19, 2011 at 4:15 AM

    Ok Bill game on!!!! I extracted this out of the MWS AFD issued at 4am this morning....THIS LEAVE A LARGE
    AREA OVER OVER 10 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST
    CENTRAL WI...WITH 13-15 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVY SNOW
    BAND. THIS BAND DEVELOPS OVER OVER THE METRO SUNDAY MORNING PER
    GFS FRONTOGENESIS BAND AND MINUS 15C OMEGA FIELD.

    So when you update spread sheet I would say use 10-15 for them

    ReplyDelete
  6. BIG DADDYFebruary 19, 2011 at 4:46 AM

    WINTER STORM WARNING!!!!!!!!!! LET THE SNOW FLY

    I HAVE A GOOD HUNCH SOMEWHERE NEAR THE METRO WILL HAVE A 20"+ total. TIME FOR MINNEAPOLIS TO JOIN IN ON THE BLIZZARD BANDWAGON THIS YEAR.

    RANDYINCHAMPLIN YOU THINK WE EXCEED THE 17" THAT TOOK DOWN THE METRODOME ROOF!

    ReplyDelete
  7. AnonymousFebruary 19, 2011 at 6:53 AM

    I believe Paul Douglas used the word "fizzile" in describing the weekend storm.

    Seems to me the various outlets are just in a bidding war right now to see who can predict the biggest doom. I'll be laughing when we end up with half of what they're predicting. I'm sensing a lot of poor grades this weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  8. AnonymousFebruary 19, 2011 at 6:55 AM

    I meant FIZZLE.

    ReplyDelete
  9. AnonymousFebruary 19, 2011 at 7:35 AM

    Paul Douglas had a headline the other day saying the chances for snow Sunday/Monday for the metro had FIZZLED! I can't seem to find that headline on his blog now. Hmmm, seems to me he conveniently decided to delete it now that a big storm is coming...

    ReplyDelete
  10. AnonymousFebruary 19, 2011 at 8:43 AM

    Bill you should post or keep a record of the Mets "clown maps" (accumulation estimates). Just watched and then looked at Belinda's. She has 2-4 inch line through Dakota county and west....way way off base.

    ReplyDelete
  11. AnonymousFebruary 19, 2011 at 8:48 AM

    bigdaddy...this is going to be a cement type, heart attack type snow not the powder December stuff. No way (well never say never)..so I doubt we'll approach over 20+ anywhere

    ReplyDelete
  12. AnonymousFebruary 19, 2011 at 9:11 AM

    Should be some good winds with this system. I expect Blizzard Warnings in out-state Minnesota. You don't want to be traveling this Sunday.

    ReplyDelete

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)