WCCO: Shows a high of 31 and a chance of mixed precipitation. No comments actually made on the air.
KSTP: From the KSTP weather blog: “Late week storm? It's far out and not high confidence, but there could be a system that pushes into Minnesota Thursday through Saturday. At this point, looks pretty light for the Metro - with light rain/maybe ending as light snow (only going 20% chance)....but Northern MN could get some decent snow out of it in the Friday-Saturday timeframe. Bears watching at the very least.”
Fox: Website shows a chance of mixed precipitation.
KARE: Next Thursday/Friday not covered in their extended outlook
Strib: Light rain/snow mix possible late on Thursday. Friday: Mostly cloudy with light snow, maybe light accumulations.
NWS: Thursday night: A 20 percent chance of light freezing rain and snow. Friday: Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain.
MPR: The GFS model is tracking a low pressure system through Iowa by next Thursday/Friday. Right now it looks warm enough for the system to begin as rain in southern Minnesota and the metro, but maybe snow in central and northern MN. There may be a transition to all snow Friday, but it's way too early to tell.
The medium range forecast models are not nearly good enough temporality or spatially to pinpoint rain/snow areas a week out, and sometimes even 24 hours out! The state of the science of meteorology only allows us to say there might be rain and or snow in a week...and anyone who tells you otherwise is selling you a bill of goods.
Bill,nice job with the post.Good to see theres some weather to talk about and follow,nice to see you started 7 days out it will be interesting to see what everyone has to say,too bad Dahl takes the weekend off would have liked to see what he had to say(for 3 days hes talking heavy snow for us and then Chikage drops the I'm not confident line,say same station two different outcome projected)
ReplyDeleteThe Euro model is also hinting at something at the end of next week.
ReplyDeleteAlso, do you ever read the NWS Area Forecast Discussion? Its technical, but gives you a better idea of what they are seeing then automated zone forecasts. You can also click the blue links to open up a glossary.
ReplyDeletehttp://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MPX&issuedby=MPX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
You know what's disappointing is we had all this cold air for a month and half with no decent storm(10+ inches)and everyone was saying the cold air to blame cuz the storm track is pushed south now the cold air is gone and the storm track is back in our neck of the woods and we get rain(NWS is full bore on the rain,even mentioning highs in the 50s in their area forecast discussion page)would like for winter to go out with an big bang snowstorm,randyinchamplain those models staying warm or any chance Dahls claims of heavy snow has a shot
ReplyDeleteBig Daddy
ReplyDeleteI have looked at 5 different models from today's 12z run (6am) and they are all over the board with this thing, one want's to bring the surface low over the Dakota's,which would keep us on the warm side, 3 want to bring it from sw MN to ne MN which would keep us mostly on the warm side, maybe even the dry side, and one, the (gfs) wants to move it through Wisconsin which would give us our best shot at snow....so for now it's just a mix of everything
Randyinchamplin
ReplyDeletethanks for the update,I'm rooting for the wisconsin track for snow and for dahl's sake for going out on a limb so far out,keep the updates coming
Big Daddy
ReplyDeleteI will have a update about 1am or so
most of the models show the snow area to our north, the GFS still is insisting that it could effect the metro...and it has shown for days, it has been pretty consistent in this, wait till Tues or Wednesday when the system comes on shore and we will know more
ReplyDeleteDave Dahl is back with no claims of his heavy snows or significant snow he was all over a couple days ago,now its north and west,I understand tracks change and storms fizzle,thats why you dont say the things he says 10+ days out cuz so much can change between then and now(just like they did)and I know hes only saying what he sees but come on why go out on such a big limb so far away,bill Dahl needs to be graded on his comments snow or no snow.
ReplyDeleteHe mentioned that after next weekend there will be several possibilities for big snows next week.
ReplyDeleteI would rather have Dave bring the fact up that a system is heading this way, when I first saw his post it was warning people that it may impact their travel plans and that it could effect the metro, if I had travel plans I sure would like to know as far in advance as possible.
ReplyDeleteThe other side of the coin is WCCO from tonight's forecast, all they said was a storm on Friday, how lame is that? It appears now that the GFS has MSP at about 4", St Cloud at about 5.5 and Alexander around 7", that info I got off a program called bufkit, I also did a manual guess for cambridge and it looks like 5- 6 for them....so it's close
Time to hop on the north bound bus
ReplyDeleteStorms are quite horrible. it may take life and sometimes can stop moving. I think it's quite safe and wise to use instrument to measure wind speed & meters especially if one's living in cold ares and in town where snow falls.
ReplyDelete