Forecastwatch.com is a fellow "forecast grader" that evaluates national forecasting services. It's far more sophisticated than TMF and the grading system is much more exact than the simple letter grades we assign. It's clearly geared for a different audience than ours, but it's an interesting site and one that's probably worthy of your review nonetheless.
Another interesting site, thought it's not a forecast "evaluator," is weatherspark.com. It provides one heck of an amount of information in an interesting graphic format. What's particularly interesting about it is that you can choose weather information from a variety of models, including NOAA, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (seriously, this is not a Minnesota joke) and World Weather Online, (See the upper right portion of the page to select a different weather model). Perhaps some of you have an idea which underlying models form the consensus for each of the weather sources.
 |
| One model from WeatherSpark reflects a rain/snow/sleet mix for next week. |
Finally, if the long wait for the snow to melt is leaving you in need of a little comic relief, we offer up this television weather meteorologist.
Enjoy the dribbling sounds of spring.
Bill thanks for the info pretty cool stuff. So can the hypeometer begin,were inside of six days from possible storm,crap the last storm started about ten days,but it seems everyone to shy to even pull the discussion trigger on the next storm since the last one busted in everyone's face,well I can get it started pick your poison gas warm with heavy rain or euro on the cold side with heavy snow,let the model flip flopping begin,do we crack the top three for snowfall or does the flooding ax era ate quicker,either way looks grim.to bad PD isn't blogging or the hype would have started already.
ReplyDeleteSorry spelling why out of line,should be gas and acceralate
ReplyDeleteCrap my fingers are too big for an iPad should read GFS
ReplyDeleteJust curious...Who here wants the snow to stop and who here wants to break the record?
ReplyDeleteI've got to believe that most, if not all, of the people here want to see a record. It'd be memorable...
ReplyDeleteWow! Talk about latching onto a solution and starting the hype the NWS went fro slight chance of snow for Tuesday to now snow likely wording in 12 hours,so you all forecasters still keeping reserved,Duane,weatherman,randyinchamplin,novakweather still mum about the storm 5 days away bill you may want to start a post since other stations will start to follow nws lead
ReplyDeleteNot all... I don't have even the slightest desire to break any snow records... not desirable in my book at all. Yuck. Just the mention of the word snow is enough to cause instant nausea.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I haven't said much about next week, but it's being watched. Precip is looking pretty likely. How much, and what kind is still a toss up. Looking more and more like a rain changing to snow type deal, with some snow accumulations possible, but it is still too far away to speculate anything about totals. Does appear to be a nice looking set up though for some slop. lol
ReplyDeleteBill sound the hypeometer! Smells like a new post starting today, maybe titled Spring Snowstorm?,GFS and Euro in pretty good agreement for 4+ days out,but precip amounts look heavy IF all snow and favorable track of southeast of here I could see 8+ at this time,NWS is pretty bullish in their discussion page and most outlets have mentioned snow potential(heard kstp and strib to name a few)mpr as usual yesterday only discussed flooding,not a mention of any weather(you would think a possible heavy precip event would warrant some kind of mention)especially when it will effect the flooding they talk about.Traveling to fargo today for sandbagging weekend,ill check in from there.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone know with this pending storm does it have a chance of dropping enough snow for the record and exactly how much more do we need for the record.
ReplyDeleteYou can see the data on historical record snow years here: http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/top_ten_snowiest_winters_msp.htm
ReplyDeleteWe are currently at the 7th place on the all-time list. We would need more than 18.4 inches to go into #1. We would need 3.9 to move into the top 5.
I think it is just too early to be forming opinions about next week - comparing all the local forecasts, to Accuweather, to NWS, to weather.com, to Wunderground, etc. it is clear there is a big variation in temperatures and precipitation potentials. Also, comparing the Brainerd and St. Cloud, MSP, and Rochester outlooks on NWS, it looks like a very inconsistent model set-up about a possible storm track that the NWS is using. I think, after all this hype, including that which was generated by this site by those desiring to set the snowfall record, with that storm that went SE a week ago where we didn't even get a 1/4 inch here in the Metro, is an example of why people are holding off and sitting back on making much of a statement about this. It is just plain unnecessary and while there are a number of weather nuts on here who like snow (I think perhaps the only ones in the state who actually want more snow this year are on this site) the vast majority of the populace has simply had it with this winter and wouldn't care if they ever saw another snowflake. On Highway 5 in Chanhassen, not far from NWS headquarters, there is a sign up that says, "Dear Winter, Surrender. - Spring" That is how 98% of people are feeling. Having said that, the 15 days models show moving back into the 50's and even a few 60's after next weeks brief cool down to the upper 30's and low 40's, so if we get a few inches, it will not stick. Amen.
Prediction - we will not be breaking the record this year.
ReplyDelete18.4 is a long shot,but crazier things have happened,I remember having a high of 91 in mid April followed by 6 inches of snow 6 days later some 7-8 years ago,so it's possible( but if this storm pans out in favor of snow we could land at no. 3. Anonymous above why you hating on snow and for all those who bitch about the snow,if your an adult you have a choice MOVE leave the state,last I checked this is Minnesota it has snowed every month except July so either enjoy your city and all it's weather or move to boring everyday sunny and 70 San Diego
ReplyDeleteDifferent Anonymous here, but the GFS has been trending north lately now giving much of North Dakota and Northern MN heavy precip tuesday-wednesday. Of course the euro may have another say on the track when it comes out later this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteHere is what I see coming up:
ReplyDeleteSunday: a rain event with some convection possible:
Nam = .31 precipitation
GFS: = .85 precipitation
ECMWF = approx. .60-.70 precipitation
UKMET is on the side of the GFS and Euro, therefore at this time I see the Nam as a outlier.
Tues/Wed...rain changing to snow
GFS .56 precipitation
ECMWF over a inch
Nam and UKMET haven't picked it up yet
Next weekend: more snow is possible as both the GFS and ECMWF have had it for the last two sounding runs
Seems to me two question's need to be asked, 1965 flood record's and seasonal snowfall record, if these three events verify...Thoughts any one???
Good info, Randy. Care to make a call on precip totals for Sunday? Given the flood potential, I sometimes wonder if forecasters may play up the rain potential in the same way they tend to hype snow.
ReplyDeleteSounds like I may need to create a post soon for a possible snow event for Tues/Wed.
Interesting...Some forecasters are saying that there will be thunderstorms on sunday! A few models are hinting at it, too.
ReplyDeleteRandyinchamplin,good info my thoughts are go large or go home in regards to snowfall record since we close(2 ten inch dumps would seal the deal),seems like alot of forecasts are mum about it,since they got snakebite from last storm,all you hear is snow mentioned and nothing else(expect for the nws seems more bullish even has called for 4+ inches)case in point chikage at kstp usually in her website blog goes in detail on what's ahead and all she has is the weekend mentioned,I know Dahl and PD could be wild with their predictions but it sucks that they are not around right now cuz we would be getting more info out of them and naturally mpr is still on a weather break three straight days now and all they have is flooding and radiation and snow melt no weather
ReplyDeleteSure Bill here we go
ReplyDeleteSunday, the heaviest rain falls should be east of the I-35 corridor, but expect .25 to .50 to be widespread, again heaviest east, with this caveat: areas that see some weak convection could see more, where will that be? Sunday afternoon the NAM shows it in NE IA, the GFS over the metro, hopefully the models will come into better agreement with the 19/0z runs. But don't bet on it....lol (insert smiley face with the forecasters pulling their hair out lol)
Just in case anyone wanted to see this, here is what the very latest NAM model is showing for POTENTIAL precip amounts through Tuesday morning. Just copy and paste this image, and you'll be able to see it. http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/NAM.gif The bottom right box is how much LIQUID could potentially fall, according to this one model. Not saying this is what is going to happen, just showing one models take on it. You can see a heavier band of precip in north central WI, extending into a small part of MN. I'm thinking this is because the model is picking up the possibility of convection (thunderstorms), and is overdoing it a bit...but it is something to watch over the coming days. Again, THIS IS NOT SET IN STONE YET, just the very latest for this one model in particular.
ReplyDeletePlease note that we've added a new post to recognize the possible snow event for next week.
ReplyDelete