Monday, July 18, 2011

Widely Predicted Heat Wave Finally Arrives in Earnest. Eighties or 90s Next Weekend?

Heat wave update as of 4 p.m.
Until today, the heat wave that was so universally predicted for so many days didn't pack the punch we were led to believe. Today, the forecasts came true. For the first time in many days, the forecast high temperature and heat indexes were reached, and even exceeded. By late afternoon, the heat index of 112 in Minneapolis was the highest of any major city in the U.S. Take a bow, y'all.

Here's a summary of how the heat wave is "performing" against forecasts made on Friday night.



Here's a summary of the over (under) prediction of the heat wave to date for the period since Friday night. At this juncture (and assuming the 98-degree high for Monday holds), KARE has the best forecast record for the period measured; Fox, the worst.


80s or 90s for Next Weekend?
Finally, in another test of the extended outlook forecasting ability of the weather mavens in our midst, here's next weekend's forecast temperatures as of last night's (Sunday night) evening forecasts. (Note: KARE does not provide specific forecasts beyond day 5. The "90s" information was provided anecdotally.)

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20 comments:

  1. AnonymousJuly 18, 2011 at 4:45 PM

    Looks like some wind on Wed. Should provide some humidity relief right?

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  2. RKooyerJuly 18, 2011 at 5:09 PM

    I am curious if Intellicast generally reports low? I am wondering if they are routinely accurate because I'm wishing their forecast was right.

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  3. AnonymousJuly 18, 2011 at 5:19 PM

    Not sure about accuracy with lows, but Intellicast's interactive radar is extremely inaccurate. Not sure if the data is incorrect or if it is juxtaposed incorrectly onto the map.

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  4. bemakiJuly 18, 2011 at 6:53 PM

    NWS SPC issued slight risk area for tommorrow... I am really hoping for no more torrential rain.


    Speaking of all this heat humidity, and torrential rain, a blind man might mistake Minnesota as a rainforest right now, if he did not know where he is!!!

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  5. AnonymousJuly 18, 2011 at 6:56 PM

    But if he heard the Minnesota accent, the mystery would be all over.

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  6. big daddyJuly 19, 2011 at 2:16 AM

    so what is considered the end of the heat wave?,below 90 high temp?under 100 heat index?,cuz whatever it is I am praying it gets here sooner rather then later!!!!!!!this crap can stay in the jungle as PD put it.

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  7. ABJuly 19, 2011 at 7:33 AM

    So...cloudy, sprinkley morning. The weather up north is heading southeast and looks to clip the north metro. Is this going to greatly affect daytime temps?

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  8. bemakiJuly 19, 2011 at 9:07 AM

    depends on weather there is a cold pool with it, AB

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  9. CWY2190July 19, 2011 at 11:46 AM

    Looks like the rain will miss the airport. Might be a situation where MSP hits 97 or so and St. Paul stays around 91.

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  10. BillJuly 19, 2011 at 11:55 AM

    Thinking the airport IS going to get it...

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  11. ABJuly 19, 2011 at 12:48 PM

    Waconia was at 92/108 at 11:00. The clouds rolled in and our temperatures dropped to the mid-80s, but we didn't see a drop of rain. Sun's back out and we're already back up to 90.

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  12. ABJuly 19, 2011 at 3:09 PM

    94/117 now. Hottest of the heatwave so far where I live!!!

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  13. randyinchamplinJuly 19, 2011 at 3:41 PM

    I'll go out on a limb with this, but i saw this possibility last night, and it seems to be confirmed with the 12z runs. I just checked on local web sites, all are still calling for a 100 tomorrow. I have serious doubt's about that. The NAM is the only model that brings +30 850 temps into the area. Looking at the the GEM, GFS ECMWF, they all show the 850 mb height lowering during the afternoon, thus lowering the temps at that level, if we don't hit 100 by 2-3pm the chances are we wont see those kind of temps. I'm going for 96, call me nuts if you want but that's the way I see it. The Nam looks like the outlier at this time.

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  14. randyinchamplinJuly 19, 2011 at 3:42 PM

    but we should still be caped at 700mb so I don't think convection will fire off

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  15. randyinchamplinJuly 19, 2011 at 4:26 PM

    PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
    400 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

    ...UNOFFICIAL DEW POINT RECORD SET IN THE TWIN CITIES TODAY...

    THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE AT THE MINNEAPOLIS ST PAUL INTERNATIONAL
    AIRPORT WAS 82 DEGREES ON THE 3 PM AND 4 PM OBSERVATION. THIS IS THE
    HIGHEST DEW POINT TEMPERATURE REPORTED ON AN HOURLY OBSERVATION AT
    THE MINNEAPOLIS ST PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SINCE HOURLY DEW POINT
    RECORDS BEGAN IN 1945.

    THE PREVIOUS HOURLY DEW POINT RECORD WAS 81 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET
    ON JULY 30TH 1999. A DEW POINT OF 81 DEGREES WAS ALSO REPORTED AT
    THE AIRPORT ON SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND EARLIER TODAY /JULY 17-19/.

    THE MINNESOTA STATE CLIMATOLOGY OFFICE IS THE OFFICIAL SOURCE OF
    DEW POINT RECORDS ACROSS THE STATE. THIS NEW RECORD WILL BE
    CONSIDERED UNOFFICIAL UNTIL IT IS CONFIRMED BY THE STAFF AT THE
    STATE CLIMATE OFFICE.

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  16. randyinchamplinJuly 19, 2011 at 4:47 PM

    YIKES!!!! at MSP at 353pm 95/82= heat index of 119°

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  17. CWY2190July 19, 2011 at 4:59 PM

    Its somehow actually worse today.

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  18. CWY2190July 19, 2011 at 5:27 PM

    Holman Field, St. Paul with a DP of 83.

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  19. Big daddyJuly 19, 2011 at 7:50 PM

    Bill what ends a heat wave,do you or anybody know

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  20. PJuly 20, 2011 at 12:27 AM

    There is no "official" definition of what constitutes a heat wave. Subjectively and colloquially I think people consider a string of 90+ temp days a heat wave.

    ReplyDelete

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