KSTP's Dave Dahl released his forecast on October 27 and predicts 75 inches of snow for the Twin Cities. Even better, Dave laid out his snowfall projection by month. We're inclined to think he nailed the October snowfall forecast.
MPR's Paul Huttner weighed in with his forecast on October 26. He forecasts average temperatures for the December through February period and a seasonal snowfall total between 50 and 60 inches.
The Star Tribune's Paul Douglas calls for winter temperatures to average 3 degrees cooler than normal and snowfall to total between 50 and 55 inches.
As a group, the average snowfall prediction of those taking the Minnesota Forecaster poll was
61.9 inches. Please take the poll at right to tally your guess as to how winter's temperatures will fare.
Minnesota Forecaster, whose predictions are based on the amount of shedding experienced by the family dog, predicts temperatures averaging .6 degrees above normal with seasonal snowfall of 43.1 inches breaking down as follows: October: 0, November: 4.1, December: 10.7, January: 9.2, February: 4.1, March: 11.2 inches, April: 3.8.
Readers, are there any other forecasts out there that we may have missed?
Does anyone see any winter weather coming our way,looking at various outlets and models it looks boring and ho-hum temps in the 40s to 50s thru at least nov 10th,Im getting trigger happy I know winter doesnt officially start till 12/21 but it sucks that my family is going to be buried under a foot of snow out east BEFORE halloween and we havent even seen a flake here in the metro,and on a side note Bill I'm hoping your prediction falls short(43 inches seems like a not so thrilling winter)I'm hoping Dahl is onto something since hes 2 inches shy of my prediction of 77.I guess we'll see what happens
ReplyDeleteThe skier in me is envious of the northeast right now. The rest of me remembers how it felt waking up to snow on May 2nd last year. I'll start getting anxious the week before Thanksgiving. I think the best winter would be one with temps 5 degrees above normal and snowfall around 80 inches. Perhaps I should move to Denver.
ReplyDeleteAccuweather has us forecasted with intermittent snow on the night of November 4th. Accuweather's long term prediction for this winter is 57". Based on the strenthening la nina and the unusual forcasts by the cfs.v1 and cfs.v2 (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf) which are on pages 28 and 29, I think I would post a guess of around 81".
ReplyDeleteI posted 71" about 10 days ago
ReplyDeleteNE today, but deer hunters beware!!! next week MN???, both the GFS and ECMWF are spinning up something nasty for NW MN next week!!! I wanted to wait for another run of the ECMWF today, but now that the GFS has it as well, I thought I would put it out.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f180.gif
12 hours later
ReplyDeletehttp://wxweb.meteostar.com/leads_images/Models/GFS/CON/CP/large/surface/2011102912_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_192.gif
Accuweather never ceases to be amazing. This is thier forcast for the night of November 5th:
ReplyDeletePeriods of sleet and freezing rain late; otherwise, evening thunderstorms; cloudy and colder
Hmmmmmmmm...
John Dee has had his seasonal forecast up for a few weeks now- http://www.johndee.com/seasonalfcst/seasonalforecast.htm
ReplyDeleteForecasters seem to be merging with AccuWeather's earlier mention of a potential rain/snow storm for next weekend (with the snow staying well north). Definitely something to watch in the coming days!
ReplyDeleteThey are mostly rain here now!
ReplyDeleteCPC outlooks show a warm November. Might be a while until the white stuff starts falling in the Metro.
ReplyDeleteAverage to above-average temps are forecasted through the middle of the month. Slow start, indeed!
ReplyDeleteLooks like the fall severe weather season will get going by this weekend.
ReplyDeleteCould be a sign that the jet stream is starting to work its way south.
Or maybe not. GFS/Euros showing a low going near La Crosse/Northern Illinois around next Friday.
ReplyDeleteGFS showing cold enough for snow. Probably the same system I mentioned above. Will have to watch.
I saw it, too...
ReplyDeleteWas about to mention it, but you already did. Could be our first snow storm...
At first it looked too far south, but it has shifted northward somwhat...
A week out it could go anywhere. Should have a good idea by Sunday or Monday.
ReplyDeleteI'm really excited about the Monday-Wednesday system. It's looking really interesting and i'm looking forward to some snow! It's also nice to get back to this blog, I see it's been going all summer, but love it in the winter and love hearing everyone else's take on the storms.
ReplyDeleteAnyways, I find it interesting how much this storm seems to be catching everybody off gaurd. Or maybe they are just ignoring it? It looks to me like we could get a few inches of the white stuff if things work out, which seems like a reasonable possibility. But several meteorologests aren't even mentioning it. It took NWS until this afternoon to get the idea of even precipitation, Paul Douglas's blog hasn't been updated in a while but he hasn't said a word, and the TV stations are all mum on things as well. Updraft seems to be the only station jumping on it, and NWS is picking up on it now.
What's others take on the system?
Yea, I think it's fair to say this blog is much more interesting (and active) when it comes to winter forecasts. Will try to keep things up to date with pending winter storms.
ReplyDeletegot home from work at 8pm looked at the models...very interesting indeed. This is what I see after looking at 5 of them, the GFS,ECMWF,(euro), JMA (Japan), Nogaps (US Navy), and The GEM (Canadian). All but the GFS are cold enough for snow, the GFS for some reason has the rain snow line (the 540 line) retreating all the way to Canada, all rest drop it way to our south. Some keep the moisture just far enough to our south and east. However the GFS 18z run is what I looked at, the 12z run showed what all the rest are showing, so I tend to believe the 12z run as opposed to the 18z.
ReplyDeleteHowever the Euro brings in significant moisture and some looks to be the white kind. This solution seems to be backed up by the ECMWF ensemble and JMA operational run.
So I guess what I'm saying is that this thing needs to be watched closely, the euro was correct with the storm out east last week, and the 1st to show the westward solution for this weekend. Stay tuned we could have some fun around here. Bill do you have the spread sheet ready to go??? lol
Just added a new post to capture any thoughts on a snowstorm for next week.
ReplyDeleteThe skier in me is envious of the northeast right now. The rest of me remembers how it felt waking up to snow on May 2nd last year. I'll start getting anxious the week before Thanksgiving. I think the best winter would be one with temps 5 degrees above normal and snowfall around 80 inches. Perhaps I should move to Denver.
ReplyDelete