Monday, November 14, 2011
The Boring November Continues ... Storms, Cold in Sight?
Minnesota's weather enthusiasts haven't had much to cheer about in several months. Through mid-November, it's been dry and mild. Some think the weather may get interesting the weekend of Nov. 19-20; others think the boring weather will continue through at least Thanksgiving. What says you?
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Well...
ReplyDeleteI think it is almost safe to say that Dave Dahl's prediction of 12" of snow in November looks ridiculously wrong.
Almost is the key word there...
ReplyDeleteModels are still coming around on this next system. If it happens to play out right, this one system could very well put down a good chunk of that 12" amount. The 12z GFS took another hop to the south and east and is closer to the Euro...however GFS is still a bit further west. This movement makes things even more favorable for some good snow across parts of central and northern MN, and north/northwest WI. The 12z GEM took a big jump west (was near Green Bay with the low last night, now goes over the metro)...still waiting on the European model to come in. There is still a lot of time to figure out this system, but signs are pointing towards the first big snowstorm of the season for parts of MN and WI.
ReplyDeleteCould be some forecasters eating crow if a weekend storm develops. Ian Leonard stated last night that there would be nothing of any significance between now and Thanksgiving and Paul Douglas said pretty much the same.
ReplyDeletePerhaps Bill, but this system did just recently show up. While the metro may or may not be spared from the brunt of this, everything, at this point, is pointing at somewhere in Minnesota seeing a lot of snow. But, as usual, things can still shift, weaken, etc. We'll see if any forecasts change tonight. The Canadian model is ridiculous with the amount of snow possible in northern MN, which isn't shocking with that model. It does have a tendency of overdoing things.
ReplyDeleteYea, but I would argue/suggest that it's not smart to make definitive statements regarding "no significant precip" for the next 11-12 days. Things DO suddenly show up, and to my amateur eyes it seems things pop up more during the changeable time of the year.
ReplyDeleteDuane and Bill
ReplyDeleteActually both of you are correct, changes can come about quickly this time of year. Right now things look pretty impressive north and west of a line from Montivideo thru St Cloud to Duluth.
I posted this back on Oct 13th "So hear goes my winter forecast, a heavy snowstorm around Nov 20th, but some of it will melt. Temps around average to slightly above average through the end of Jan. Total seasonal snowfall of 71". 99% pure luck 1% guess since that is the day that the ave mean 24 hr temp drops below freezing. LMAO!!!
What do the latest model runs say? Good news or bad? I see the Euro now has the low north of Michigan on Sunday morning. Doesn't seem to be the La Crosse track we always hope for!
ReplyDelete12z GFS seems a bit further to the West now.
ReplyDeleteCome on, all snow lovers out there, let's push this storm those 75-100 miles to the east so that we get a dumping in the metro as well.
:) :) :)
GFS looks to dry slot us, not good for snow lovers. On the other hand the GEM and the Euro are now feeling the cold air from the NW and the snow track has dropped further south. The question is how far south and east will it go? I think there is a 4 in 10 chance that it could pass over Chicago again. Time will tell
ReplyDeletetime to amp the HYPE machine!
ReplyDeleteCURRENT track in the models puts metro in cold sector with snowfall,any rain in onset will quickly change to snow,like the mets like to say "at this time",the path will likely change between now and Saturday,but look at the positive side snowlovers right now the heaviest snow includes the st.cloud area,so a small shift to the south and east would put metro in the heaviest snow band,let's just hope it doesn't go too far east,which I could see happening
ReplyDeleteI really dont know. I remember a time where a similar scnario was shaping up, then there was a sudden jump 150 miles to the southeast. They originally thought 12 inches, the most that wnt out of it was 4 inches.
ReplyDeleteWith the current model tending, the low could shift east a little more and get stronger. A big snowstorm could be shaping up.
I hope so.
Knock on wood...
I should add...
ReplyDeleteThe weather channel is consistantly dropping thier forecast high by one degree every time I look...
Big Daddy:
ReplyDeleteAt this time the Euro has the heavier snow bands over the metro, but I'm afraid with continued runs it will keep dropping south...again a 4 in 10 chance
Just curious, what websites do you guys use to get this info? (@randyinchamplin, bigdaddy, anybody else) I use http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm as my main one, but you guys often have info that I cant find on there.
ReplyDeleteAlso, is there anywhere online where I can find the Euro snowfall forecast model, unless I'm missing something (which I could) it's not on the weathercaster site.
Thanks
"The weather channel is consistantly dropping thier forecast high by one degree every time I look... "
ReplyDeleteI noticed that too.
I also expect the track to continue trending south and east, simply because that has been typical as of late. The question is...how much?
I also think that's why the outlets are being SO careful with this storm. The last two (in ND and WI) were such a mess right up to development. They don't know what to say because the models can't be trusted, we've been in a drought, and our weather's been unseasonably warm.
I use this to get my model data:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0
It is pretty cool... it has skew t's and cross sections as well...
Yeah, Wunderground is a good site to go to (the wundermap has the option to view model data, including the European model aka ECMWF). If you google search ewall, Penn State's e-wall site has a lot of model stuff too. Once you learn how to navigate the site it's really nice. It's just a lot options on one site. I'm lucky enough to work in television, so I get access to some of the password protected sites too.
ReplyDeleteJust be real careful when using the Penn State site and if you encounter any problems, report them immediately. :-) Sorry, cheap shot.. couldn't resist. I actually come from a family of Penn State graduates so I felt justified.
ReplyDeleteGood information, Duane. Thanks for sharing!
Page full of links- http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm
ReplyDeleteLooks like the Paul's(Paul Huttner/MPR and Paul Douglas/Star Tribune)are weighing in on their blogs on our Saturday storm and they are mostly going for a non-snow event for the metro,with just wrap-around wet snow at the end,even Ian Leonard at fox9news said during his evening broadcast an non-issue for the metro,all 3 of them are saying this cuz they are siding with the GFS model which took a jog to the north and west,its still way too early to latch onto to a solution,cuz other models are further east and south,Thursday 12z runs for me at least would give me a sense of what will happen,till then just watch the flip-flopping.
ReplyDeleteAnd Marc to answer your question,Penn State site is pretty good,I also get info from weatherbell,but that is a premium site!
Hahaha Bill. Too soon? Maybe... Anyway, the way a lot of the local mets lock onto the GFS model is a little surprising...but maybe I'm not the guy who should be saying anything since I'm not a meteorologist. While this doesn't always work, when I look at the models (using the very limited knowledge that I have), I look for which models have similar solutions. This particular system is still a little too far away for the NAM and SREF models, so these can't be factored in yet. In this case, the Canadian and European models are very similar in their path, while the GFS is further west. To me, it would seem like they would go with the two foreign models since they are similar, but then again maybe they see other features that make them think the GFS is correct. Once we do fully get into the winter season, the European model typically has a better track record (not 100% obviously, but still pretty good). I guess we'll see how this plays out, especially once the trough makes it onshore and the US data networks gather data for the model runs. At this point, it is still way too soon to say anything with a large amount of certainty.
ReplyDeleteWell the NWS in their morning discussion is taking their first stab at snowfall for Saturday's event and currently their calling for 2-3inches through the metro,greater amounts further north and west you travel(upwards of 6"),being a snowlover I would take anything to kick start our winter,2-3" is not an non-issue(like some local mets called Paul are saying) for your first snowfall of the season especially with highs on Sunday predicted to be below freezing,I could some pretty icy roads shaping up,and I'm still not convinced with the track so close to us that a jog south and east is still possible.
ReplyDeletePatrick Hammer(kstp) has also chimed in calling for 1-3" in metro,3-5" north and west.
ReplyDeleteAccuweather says coating to an inch......their never right!
ReplyDeleteThis is Hammer...track really showing a Westward shift...metro accumualtions may be minimal if at all. The Euro holds out hope but I like the Montevideo, Brainer to Duluth line for 3 - 5"
ReplyDeleteDuane: to your point....the gfs is now on board
ReplyDeleteDD on the evening news said "maybe 3-5 inches " for the metro
ReplyDeleteThanks for the report, Big Daddy. KB just said "accumulating snow for the metro is not out of the question."
ReplyDeleteShaffer said, "To try and give amounts at this point would be ridiculous." Wow, a surprisingly non-vanilla comment from him.
KARE was most ho hum on snow. "Rain moving in midday turning over to snow BRIEFLY. Accumulating snow across north central MN. Models continue to put snow in No. MN, not metro."
Anyone like Paul Huttner? I just checked out his site. He says there is a shift to the south. He says heaviest could be right over metro. However, since it is an open low, this won't be a huge storm. I like the shift though!
ReplyDeleteI think Paul Huttner is pretty good and I appreciate his straight forward approach. The only problem is that he's mainly a one-man show and so you don't often get forecast updates when things are evolving over a weekend... unless it's a really huge storm.
ReplyDeleteI have to say... at this point the headline seems out of date. The forcasters are constantly ramping up thier forecast... Weather.com is calling for up to half a foot...
ReplyDeleteNot to be pushy or anything...
but...
Time for a new post?
I'm really thinking, at this point in time, this will be nothing more than an advisory snowfall, somewhere in the range of 3-5 inches, perhaps some isolated higher amounts near the lakes if they can get some lake enhancement. The low's track is actually pretty good, but the problem now is that it's moving fairly quickly, and with as dry as it has been it will take a while for the air to saturate enough for the snow to make it to the surface. The ground is still fairly warm, but not as warm as a few weeks ago...and this looks to mostly fall after dark, so that will actually help accumulation potential. The exact areas of higher snow totals is yet TBD, but my first initial guess would be from a line NE from Mankato up to Wilmar. I still think due to the lakes that areas in far northern WI near the lake shore will see the most, but this is all preliminary, and mostly a guess from a guy who has a very limited amount of knowledge in forecasting.
ReplyDeleteThis storm is expected to move too quickly to be anything more than blip in the grand scheme of winter. Even a dusting would be a storyline compared to the past 3 months, but at this point, it certainly isn't comparable to the larger storms we're accustomed to getting 2-3 times every winter.
ReplyDeleteJust for you Bemaki... a new post.
ReplyDelete