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| Obliterated (from chasetheplains.com) |
Thursday, January 5, 2012
Exactly WHAT Happened to Those Records?
On January 5, you’d have thought the most common word in the English language was “record.” It seemed you couldn’t read a weather-related tweet without seeing the word “record” surrounded by all kinds of action verbs. Here is a sampling of the verbs (and tweets) we found associated with records (though, strangely, we couldn’t find any that indicated records were in “jeopardy” and, truth be told, we'd like to see them simply "played over.")
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It doesnt seem as though the next shot of cold air will be around as long as it looked a couple of days ago. It could easily be as cold as the last shot last sunday, monday. It still looks like the Westerlies still have a quite the influence on our sensible weather looking at a few of the various models. Not to mention the fact that much if not all of the snow will be gone, the sun can still warm up the ground a bit even on a cold day as the sun angle is beginning to get a little higher in the sky every day.
ReplyDeleteok I have kept my mouth shut when it comes to politics and weather but with the rise of Rick Santorum over the last 14 days something is really concerning me. And that is his attitude that he expressed back in 2005 that the National Weather Service should provide their data to private companies like ACCU and others, while limiting the amount of data that is provided over the internet to the general public. The result of that would be a national forecast that is controlled by forecasters with a east coast bias and sell the data to the highest bidder...much like the ECMWF. The reason that data is so hard to find for the ECWF is that they consider it a profit center. Is that what we want our MWS info to come to?? or do we want our NWS to continue providing us with info???
ReplyDeleteCheck it out.......http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71129.html
@randyinchamplin
ReplyDeleteThat little episode with Santorum in 2005 is what made him a household name for me. But he didn't do it out of the goodness (or badness) of his heart. Accuweather made a big contribution to his 2006 re-election campaign. To this day I've boycotted Accuweather.
His "plan" was that the NWS could continue to issue alerts/advisories/warnings, but day-to-day forecasting and conditions would be privatized. Naturally, Accuweather was ready to step into that role.
Yeah. Privatize the weather. Santorum is a contemptible man for many reasons including this.
Well next weeks cold push still appears to be on track. Both weather service offices have a good discussion in relation to the MJO and how it is controlling our pattern. A couple things to note from the 00z runs in regards to this cold push. The GEM is, yet again, being aggressive with QPF associated with the low that will help usher in that cold push. The new run of the Euro doesn't show as much moisture, but has increased the amount from its earlier run. While it still isn't all that much for some, the temp profiles are quite cold so ratios could be higher. Even a tenth of an inch of liquid could equate to a couple inches of snow. The model actually puts out between .4 and .5 for where I am at, and that would be a good amount with even a lower ratio. Here's hoping we get some snow with that cold push, because cold and no snow is just cruel.
ReplyDeleteThe winds of change are around the corner..........Wednesday/Thursday time frame looking more interesting for some snowfall(couple inches at best)but with the cold sinking southward out of Canada it should stick around longer and hopefully we can add to it with other storms as we head into the latter half of January,@randyinchamplin thanks for answering my question as best as possible but I'm hoping that track meanders abit further north,lets say southern Iowa instead of south Missouri,so that southern MN can get a piece of that active storm track,hopefully the murky/foggy picture becomes more clear with some fresh air coming south of the border next week.
ReplyDelete2011 was divided in 2: roughly first half below average, and second half considerably above.
ReplyDeleteWe flipped around exactly on July 28th. On that date we were at average for the year. Before below, and then it's been above average ever since.
Dramatic effects of new daily averages.
ReplyDeleteUntil last year NWS was using 1971-2000 series.
We have now switched to the 1981-2010.
MSP January 5th averages changed from 4/22 to 8/24!!! Min temp doubled!!!!!!
Something is certainly going on, whether you call it global warming or whatever else.
Ok, I'm sick and tired of this crap! I refuse to deal with this **** anymore. It is time to put this October weather to bed and focus on some serious winter weather. If I have to, I will conduct a snow dance AND an exorcism until the flakes finally start piling-up and the Arctic express settles-in.
ReplyDeleteWith that being said, I really, REALLY like how the weather maps are looking for next weekend. Bone chilling Arctic air hugging our northern border, warm air still hanging around in the Plains, and a nice disturbance riding the Polar Front.
Just what the Dr. ordered. Nice!
12z ECMWF is bullish.
ReplyDeletes beautiful outside today. Windier, but still nicer than yesterday. Feels like early April out there!
ReplyDeleteIt really got me wondering, though. How big of an impact does snowpack have on temperature? What is the coldest temp in Minneapolis with a lack of snow cover around the state? In other words, how cold could it really get here if there wasn't any snow?
It may not be an easy question to answer.
@big daddy
ReplyDeleteThat murky crystal ball is now coming into sharper focus, but still somewhat fuzzy looking. Last night run of the Gem (it goes out to 240 hours, the 12z run only goes out to 180 hrs) shows a surface low dropping south from the Dakotas to se Ohio bringing us some snow. This morning's run of the Euro shows a surface low 24hrs later in SD. that moves up into the UP of MI. Both models show temps in the mid to lower teens, snow could pile up quickly as the ratio looks like around 15:1. The GFS keeps the storm north of the border, this is around the 15th. Finally something on the maps to look forward to, but will it stay or go bye bye??
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html
I'm even seeing people who don't like cold or snow getting tired of this... finally admitting that you live in Minnesota to see those seasons change. It seems like only the most selfish still revel in this... but even they know its also putting the hurt on many people financially as well. I know many who's moods are terrible right now and that reflects on everyone else. Facebook is a great place to see how this weather is affecting people and by now its looking like the majority want some real winter before we have to deal with summer again.
ReplyDeleteBring it on.
@My Blog
ReplyDeleteI've yet to speak with anyone outside this blog who isn't enjoying our weather. And the financial "hurt" you talk about works in both ways. Lots of money is LOST when there are massive snowstorms.
Bring on summer.
I agree with you Disco80.
ReplyDeleteI've heard from people pretty evenly both ways, but complaints have lessened since the new year. I think manye, like myself, envision the "White Christmas" scene, but once the holidays are over, they would just as soon it be 40 degrees and not have the hassle. Thanks to snow-making, I can still enjoy my winter activity of skiing. If I'm not on the slopes, I don't need the snow.
ReplyDeleteScrew summer disco80,you can have summer when its summer,I say let it snow let it snow let it snow,come on @randyinchamplain and @novak do that snow dance baby,bring me winters fury and all that glourious white powder you are long over due and we miss you!
ReplyDeleteDisco80, you must hang out with a strange crowd. Glad I don't know you.
ReplyDelete@Anonymous at 7:06. No personal attacks on this blog.
ReplyDeleteI know there are people who love summer and thats their right. I do think many are being inconsiderate of those who enjoy snow and even cold, but thats just my opinion. But hey, when we get the next cold and rainy summer I'll do my best to share my excitement ;-)
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, and back to the weather, seems like the forecasts continue to show colder in the coming days. I do hope things are shifting...
How about this Bill: give me a freakin snowstorm that will shatter,destroy, obliterate,engulf,consume,smash,and excite us all!I miss looking at the radar and seeing the the green and dark green blobs(indicating snow)tracking over the metro(kinda like on New Years Eve,but longer then 3 hours).
ReplyDeleteLooks like more of the same. The outlets have been advertising a "big arctic cold front" for mid next week with staying power. However, my gut told me that it will get cold for 1-2 days and then warm up again. I then noticed that over the past couple of days the NWS has been slowly raising temperatures for late next week. Sure enough this morning the NWS discussion is speaking about another warm up by next weekend. I guess it shouldn't really matter because other than possibly a token dusting there is no snow in sight anyway. Let's recap...a very long stretch of ridiculously warm/dry weather occasionally followed by a dusting of snow and a brief two day cool down which is then followed by another very long stretch of ridiculously warm/dry weather. Our Ground Hog Day replay just keeps rolling on and on. Please fast forward to May. I can't take the disappointment any longer.
ReplyDeleteWhether a snow or cold weather lover or not, can we agree that it would "cool" to bag the record for latest sub-zero temp? That would provide a punctuation point to this season that seems dead set on being among the most memorable -- good or bad.
ReplyDeleteI'm willing to bet on no sub-zero this year.. at all.
ReplyDeleteI'd bet pretty big money that will still get to zero. I still think it's relatively early in the season to come to cold-less/snow-less conclusions.
ReplyDeleteMy Blog, that is one of the most absurd overreactions I've even seen on a weather site and I've seen quite a few.
ReplyDelete@CWY2190.. why? Sure seems like we're headed that way doesn't it? I see it flirting in the singles but no sign of sub-zero to be found... and the way things are going, before you know it, we'll be through Feb.
ReplyDeleteNormally I wouldn't even think this, but hasn't it been a crazy year so far? If I were ever to go out on a limb this year would be it. Long shot? Sure...
Hope I'm wrong.
BTW: this is off topic I'm sure, but for those cold and snow lovers... have you ever thought about moving to a climate more suited to this weather?
ReplyDeleteWas looking for fun the other day... Anchorage sure looks like it could be a great place for someone that doesn't care for above 80s. Am I right in seeing they have never had a record high in the 90s?
@My Blog
ReplyDeleteDid you take a look at what I found?
I have to agree with my blog, I think it is possible to run the winter without going below zero, especially if we have no snow on the ground. With the sun angle getting higher everyday the sun can warm the ground more and more, even when there is a cold airmass around. This cold snap that is coming doesn't look as big of a deal as it was a few days ago. I'm not sure but I dont think the models consider whether or not snow is on the ground, since this appreciably can affect how warm or cold it is. Overall, the pattern still seems to be the same story looking at the long range stuff, the westelies are still strong and the gulf is cut off, still may get a couple of cold days here or there but it wont last long, simular to what it has been. The extremes for warmth will get higher as feb comes in. If there is no appreciable snow on the ground and we have an air mass simular to what we just had, lookout the temps will be very warm.
ReplyDeleteCheck this out. It is an interesting read:
ReplyDeletehttp://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/wint77_78.html
@bemaki - thanks, very interesting!
ReplyDeleteI think it is a no-brainer that we won't have any subzero temperature this winter. As it is a now brainer that we have to consider ourselves lucky if we get to 20 inches of snow.
ReplyDeleteAs a snow and winter weather lover, I have already started counting down to next winter.
I gave up on this one.
I swear... There must be some cycle that repeats itself here... Looking back, there are only some minor differences between the 1877-1878 and this year. It makes me wonder weather the 1878-1879 will compare to next winter...
ReplyDeleteYea, but in 1878-79 the urban heat island effect was less of a factor. :-)
ReplyDeleteI've given up on this year too. Question is, will this pattern create changes in our spring And summer? If so, how? I'd think the pattern would bring more dry but not warmer than normal. (kinda like Portland without the rain?)
ReplyDeleteIt's going to be a long year regardless. Hope el niño doesn't arrive for next year and screw us out of another winter in a row.
Here's a pretty cool article in regards to what a difference snow vs no snow makes, done by the NWS in La Crosse.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=arx&storyid=77423&source=0
NWS has article pretaining to this:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mpx&storyid=77412&source=0#St_Cloud
@Duane
ReplyDeleteFascinating article, thanks! Interesting that the average highs without snow are 30F or higher (with one weird exception).
I did a little number crunching. The average (1891-2012) high temp for January 1st-8th is 22; average low is 6. This year, our averages have been 36 & 21 -- highs have been 14 above average whilst the lows have been +16! I think this speaks directly to the article you posted. I find it remarkable that we're almost nine days into January and the lowest temp so far was 10.
One of the things Paul Douglas talks about a lot with respect to climate change is the higher overnight temps he predicts. We set a record high minimum for January 6th at 37. We set five such records in 2011!
Regarding that La Crosse article, I should add this. The coldest night there without snow is only +13.3F (Jan 12th). So this is sort of an answer to my question a couple days ago when I wondered if below zero was at all likely without snow. It certainly seems that it would be difficult to get below zero in LAX without snow.
ReplyDeleteNow I really want to know: what is the record low temp in Minneapolis when there was no snow?
So the odds of staying above zero, which has never been done before, would be one divided by the number of years of records, which I assume to be, what, 140-something years? So the probability would be something like .7%.
ReplyDelete@Bill
ReplyDeleteNot sure I'm following your logic there. I think it would be difficult to calculate the probability of that event.
Either way, I finally started a weather blog to use for my own geeky pursuits of weather records and other such minutiae.
http://discoweather.blogspot.com/
Bring it on!!! I love this above average warmth. Remember this guys, this is Minnesota and the hammer will slam down at some point. The later it starts, the shorter amount of time I have to put up with the cold. This is good for everyone when it comes to their heating bills too. Snow isn't so bad but I cant stand the bitter cold for days on end. Remember last January 21? it was officially -22 at the MSP airport and when I was leaving work that early morning in NW Anoka county it was -27.
ReplyDeleteThere is still a lot of winter to go so yeah, I expect at some point we will get a blizzard and have some sub zero days including for highs. Like I said, this IS Minnesota.
I think what Bill was saying at 9:02pm was that IF we didn't reach below zero this season, it would be the first time ever recorded. So 1 in 140 (years), which at a high level going forward would put the odds at 0.7% of it repeating any year after. Right now though, the odds are 0% that it will happen, because there's no recorded data of it ever happening.
ReplyDeleteThe zero will happen,as early as this Thursday night lows are forecasted to be near 0 and if there is any snowcover from wednesdays system below zero will be a lock,also anyone catch Dave Dahls blog last night at kstp.com,you'd swear that Novak wrote it with all the snow he mentioned coming,thru this week and the rest of the month,I sure hope one them is right one of these days in regards to the snow,but I could do without any bitter cold,snow and 30 is fine with me
ReplyDeleteMore records will be smashed ,destroyed,eclispsed,bulldozered,obilerated whatever you like to call it today and tommorrow before it will feel like winter again.
ReplyDeleteI know it's INACCU-Weather and all, but is anyone else seeing anything in the models that corraborates their 6+ inch snowfall for the MSP area on Wed the 18th next week?!
ReplyDeleteI agree with all of the comments about "could do without the bitter cold." I am with you. Snow and 20's/30's is just fine. On a side note, we don't need to rip on Novak and Dahl. They are great and they get us to look forward to the next storm or snow or event. I like that type of discussion. We NEED that this year as the weather is so boring. So.....tell us it could be a snowy/wintery second half of January. This is what we live for. 90% of the excitement of anything is the aniticipation and build-up of the event. That is why we get so "mad" when the event doesn't pan out.
ReplyDelete@JAW--There you go! That is what I am talking about. A small glimmer of something on the Inaccuweather website and we can start talking. Love it!!!
ReplyDelete@Jaw...Yes the ECMWF has it, but take that with a huge grain of salt, it has done this to us before in the 8-10 day period, only to quickly correct itself, if it shows up in the next 3 runs of the model, then I would take it more seriously
ReplyDelete@Jaw-I love snow as much as the next person,and hope we get 6+ every other day from now till spring,but look at Inaccuweather tommorrow for the 18th and would be lucky if it doesn't say "cloudy with a bit of snow"(totaling .9),sorry to be a downer@Plymouth Weather Lover,but that's how they operate.
ReplyDelete@Randy "but take that with a huge grain of salt"
ReplyDeleteSo you're telling me there's a chance?! YEEEAHHHH!!! Randy is calling for a snow storm!
(this is me trying to spin some positivity among all the Debbie downers around here crying into their snowblower gas tanks!)
@Anonymous 10:43,I did catch Dahls blog yesterday and Novak I luv ya for your snow talk and your perspective on storms,but that was diffinitely something you would right,lol!.........Btw @Novak any snow coming?
ReplyDeleteOn the door step of a new record tied right now at 49!!!!
ReplyDeleteAnyone else verify want Dahl is forecasting for Wednesday"strong low pressure in eastern Iowa will throw ample moisture into the cold air giving southern MN at least a couple of inches of snow,if not more if the storm digs any further"..........comments novak,randy,duane
ReplyDeleteOfficially it looks like we "only" reached 48 today. But it also appears that we WILL set another record high minimum of 35. Previous was 34 in 2002.
ReplyDeleteThe record high maximums are fun to break, but I think the record minimums have possibly even more implications for climate and environment.
Stay tuned. Tomorrow looks like record territory!
Thursday is finally looking a bit more normal... will be nice to be back there for even just a short while. On the sports front it allows us to re-open our bike trails so people can get back out and enjoy. (these freeze/thaw temps destroy the trails so they have to be closed)
ReplyDeleteNext year at this time I hope we're talking about snow and cold records...
I like the snow and all, but leaving work without a coat on January 9th is nice too.
ReplyDeleteIf the cold does materialize, it darn well better be accompanied by snow; otherwise, what's the point???
Not that I care for record warmth at any point of the year,especially in winter months cuz that means rain over snow if there is a storm or snow melt if we have record warmth,but yes @disco80 a record 49 was tied today at MSP and tommorrow a few degrees warm is not at of the question,but............how does Dahl go for something substantial on Wednesday and the NWS just says passing snow showers for wednesday
ReplyDelete@big daddy-that's easy,same way Novak predicts 4-7 inches and we get 1.7,get over it!it won't snow Wednesday or any other day this pathetic winter.
ReplyDelete@JAW Regarding my post at 1:16 this afternoon, I was on my way out of the house so I posted a quick response. This morning's run of the ECMWF (euro) shows the storm on it's last frame. Last nights run of the Euro was strongly hinting that was going to happen with the last frame of this mornings run. (hope that makes sense). So there is some continuity with the last two runs. So is it possible that a storm could show??? Sure it's always possible when a model shows it this far out. But at this time the probability is very low say 5-10% at best.
ReplyDeleteIn response to your response that was posted at 1:52 pm....I know it was your intention to put levity into the conversation, but please don't extrapolate that because one model shows it that I am calling for a snowstorm, I appreciate the humor, but please be careful in future post's.
@ Big Daddy...I don't see DD's thinking with the low in IA, but I do see another possibility, I will have to look at it more closely, it involves several maps, and at the end it's more wish casting than anything else.
Interesting spread of temps for predicted high temp on Tuesday:
ReplyDeleteWCCO: 47
KSTP: 51
Fox: 49
KARE: 48
Weather.com: 48
Accuweather: 41
NWS: 48
Between snow total on Wednesday and high temp tomorrow, Dave Dahl is really living on the edge.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Dave Dahl the climate change denier? I sort of put him in the same league as Accuweather.
ReplyDeleteThe truth lies between DD and PD, who is a global warming freak.
ReplyDeleteok this is my take on Wednesday based 100% on the 0/9 12z ECMWF ( I haven't had time to look close at the other models, but the Nam I don't trust at all during the winter months.) First off all the model shows 1/2"- 1" of snow fall based on a 10:1 ratio.
ReplyDeleteAs the cold front is on our doorstep Wed. morning at 6am the model shows around .50" of Precipitable water available. At the same time at 700mb (roughly 11k feet) it shows the relative humidity at around 80-90% (fairly well saturated)
At 850 mb it shows the relative humidity at around 60-70%. Dropping down to the 925mb level just above the surface it only shows about 55-60% relative humidity. (not very saturated)
So some snow is possible. The only way we could get any accumulations to speak of is if the storm system that is forecast to move out of TX into the Tennessee Valley should sift its track north about 150 miles, which I believe is highly unlikely.
Bill,
ReplyDeleteYour odds of 1/140 (or 1/127 depending how far back one defines the records as official) would technically be the probability of having a full winter season with no subzero temps, starting from the next one, assuming we do indeed end up with no subzero temps this winter.
Right now the probability is 0% because up until last season, all seasons on record had at least one subzero.
Well, it can't be zero either because it is possible. Zero implies that it can't happen.
ReplyDeleteBTW I think for tomorrow a 48-51° spread is about right
ReplyDelete@Rigil Thanks, makes sense. @CWY2190 If it's never happened before, the probability would indeed by zero. How can it be anything else? Probabilities, I assume, are developed from recorded history.
ReplyDeleteAs my brother once reminded me, there's a 100% of weather tomorrow.
@cwy2190
ReplyDeletegood point. this not being a probebility theory blog, i tried to keep things simple.
we statisticians use an approximation for these kind of situations which has been dubbed "the rule of 3" (i'll save the technicalities as to why 3): a good estimate of the chance of something happening that has not happened yet is 3/n where nis the number of observations for which the phenomenon has not happened. so up to now, assuming 140 years the 'potential' probability of a nonzero winter is 3/140.
in 10 years, assuming it did not happen still, it would be 3/150, etc...
as you can see that probability would decrease with any new observation not happening, but to your point, it will never reach zero.
Ah, I stand corrected by someone who knows what they're talking about.
ReplyDeleteHey all, great conversations.
ReplyDeleteYep, I'm over here doing that snow dance that I promised earlier and I'm confident that it will pay off during the next couple of weeks. The shift in the weather pattern that we've been bracing for is finally on our doorstep. The NAO is quickly going to turn negative and that should allow for bitter Arctic air to seep into the northern US over the next several days.
As far as DD's forecast for snow later tomorrow into Thursday? Well, it sure is a gutsy call given the fact that the NAM totally disregards any accumulating snow, but the GFS continues to trend towards snow. It appears that the cold air core along with the 500mb low will have a trajectory that flows just west and south of MN. In theory, this would place much of MN & WI in a favorable position for snow. However, I think everyone will be trigger shy to buy into an accumulating snow until it finally shows up on radar. If I were DD, I would play this cautiously, but he may be onto something.
By the way, has everyone been paying attention to the 6-10 day model forecasts? Look at the massive build-up of brutally cold Arctic air that pools all over the Canadian provinces. It first builds with a vengeance in the Klondike/Yukon that spills south and east throughout much of Canada. Eventually, this stuff will sag south into much of the U.S. I could see much of MN not making it above zero for highs later next week. With this kind of cold, we have to get some snow, right?
Wow!
Ken Barlow says "we could see an inch," Wed. night. Interesting to see whether there's pressure to conform to the station's (i.e., DD's) forecast.
ReplyDeleteJust taking a peak at the 00z forecast runs, the GEM, GFS, and European all show potential for accumulating snow, but mostly over Wisconsin. Temps aloft do become quite favorable for snow formation, and a decent depth of the dendritic growth zone should work in our favor too. Again, the QPF amounts aren't all that high (maybe around a quarter inch in some spots), but with the cold temps the ratios could be high (in the 13-15:1 ratios). MSP could still maybe get an inch or two of snow, but the way the models look, it could be a very slow accumulation type deal. It could snow lightly for a good chunk of Thursday, but accumulations will probably take time, if they do happen. This system could potentially be a lot different if that other low pressure that is flooding parts of Texas wasn't there. That system has effectively cut off any Gulf moisture from reaching up here. However, if anyone needed that moisture, it would be them. The flooding sucks, but hopefully they can start playing catch up with their rainfall amounts. Getting back to us...again, I am wondering about the potential for advisories. Any snow that falls will be very light and fluffy, and if winds start kicking up, it could reduce visibilities in some areas. I'm not as sold as this as I was on New Years Eve, but if models trend higher with the moisture output, and the wind forecasts hold, don't be surprised to see the NWS throw some advisories up.
ReplyDelete@JAW,go take a look at your inaccuweather forecast now for Jan.18,"cold with a bit of snow",how much?(0.00 inches)translation:accuweather hype,sorry!.....but maybe just maybe DD might be onto something for tommorrow night/Thursday,NWS in their discussion also alluded to it this morning,something to watch thru the course of today.
ReplyDeleteHERES TO NOT BREAKING A RECORD TODAY!!!!!!!
@Biggie I noticed the inaccu forecast this morning at 5am when I couldn't sleep...and I knew you would be proud for being right! You certainly called that one correctly!
ReplyDeleteI'll say this thought...even if it doesn't pan out, it's still kind of fun to see a "glimmer" of a storm on the horizon like that!
ok Last nights run of the Euro has made the move north with the system moving out of the south, there is now much more moisture available to the cold front as it enters WI. The Nam has caught on as well, while I generally don't like the Nam, the reason is because it almost always over cooks the snow fall forecast....but here it is, first for the ARX area and than Milwaukee area.
ReplyDeletehttp://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=ARX
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=MKX
However it may be right with the Lake effect snow near Green Bay. I could see most of WI getting 4-10" of snow.
What will the NWS sites do in WI??? I would think at the very least a Winter Storm Watch will be needed. How ever with the tight pressure gradient setting up over the entire state, I believe there is a chance of a Blizzard watch being issued.
This is a perfect set up for a huge storm for WI. Strong surface low to the SW pumping moisture into the state, a strong cold front moving in at the same time and the closed upper low over MN.
Maybe some fresh snow at Afton Alps (no matter what they say, man-made snow doesn't ski the same). Meanwhile, it looks like I'll stay high and dry at home. Same old, same old. If it's going to be cold, it might as well snow!
ReplyDeleteok..This is getting way to interesting in my book, not sure if I buy this or not, now lets see what the Euro brings
ReplyDeleteGem Regular....http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCREGCENT_12z/f48.gif
Gem Global... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCCENT_12z/f84.gif
and the Global loop....http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCCENT_12z/cmcloop.html
49 degrees out there!
ReplyDeleteRandy,
ReplyDeleteCertainly plausible. It all depends upon how far west & south the upper-level features dig over the next 48 hours. Models seem to be trending more towards a west solution, if so, then we will get some accumulating snow.
I'm anxiously waiting for the 18z & 00z model runs.
In general, I'm much more positive about snow over the next 10 days than I have been all season. MN will likely be located in strong baroclinic zone along the southern fringe of an impressive Arctic airmass. Several impulses should ride along this zone and create opportunities for snow.
I'm dancing!
The way this storm tomorrow and Thursday is wrapping-up and doing weird things? It scares me.
ReplyDeleteEach successive model run seems to pull the energy a bit further west. It is a dangerous forecast with potential bust and surprises especially when considering that the 700/500 mb lows wrap-up and intensify right over MN/WI. One thing appears for sure, a good chunk of WI will receive significant snow from this.
Should be interesting.
Well, we set a new record today of 52. Incidentally, that was also the high temperature for 6th June 2009.
ReplyDeleteThere is snow coming! Let's hear the analysis!! Bring it.
ReplyDeleteAnalysis is...if you live east of the Mississippi/St Croix River, accumulations are looking more and more likely. West of the river will still see some minor accumulations, but most of the action looks to take place in Wisconsin. After looking at the 00z runs of the NAM, GFS, GEM, and ECMWF, I really think that there will be a need for Winter Weather Advisories, again for the most part in Wisconsin. In fact, the latest run of the Euro puts down nearly half an inch of liquid for Eau Claire, WI. Given the cold and ideal temps for snow growth (or dendritic growth), ratios still look to be on average in that 15:1 frame. So, take .5 and multiply it by 15, and you get 7.5 inches of snow. This is somewhat supported by the NAM, GFS, and GEM which is really leading me to believe at least advisories will be issued at some point in time by ARX and MPX. This total would fall into that "warning" criteria, but I don't know if either weather service office will take the plunge and go with a watch or not. It just might be drawn out enough that they will hold off, but hey that is up for them to decide. So again, for those of us east of the river, don't be surprised to see advisories eventually issued (MAYYYBE even a watch, if MPX or ARX are really feelin it). I wish I had better news for those west of the river, but most of the QPF will be over WI.
ReplyDeleteI'm watching the southern storm, it better start taking its turn to the east/northeast pretty quick or there could be some surprised forecaster out there...
ReplyDeletehttp://weather.cod.edu/satrad/
sorry that didn't work
ReplyDeleterandy you agreeing with duane on his analysis,what do you have to add.
ReplyDeleteI think this surface high pressure that has developed over the east coast is a surprise.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/pmsl/pmsl.gif?1326267950989
that's the surface pressure as of 1am
I see advisories for areas east of highway 35 and warnings for most of wisconsin,thats just me,we'll see in a couple of hours,NWS discussion will be out in 2-3 hours.
ReplyDeleteEerily quiet here...........you would think with a change in weather today there would be more discussions/comments.......snow mixed with rain feeling colder and winds picking up here in golden valley,now if we can just get this band of precip to stall and blossom over the metro
ReplyDeleteUhm... busted forecast scenario?
ReplyDeleteDrizzling here in Golden Valley, temperatures have actually risen in the past 2 hours.
Got a hunch that all we get out of this is some cold drizzle/rain maybe some mix, and then cold and dry as the main push of arctic air goes through.
PM commute will be absolutely fine. The usual hype from local forecasters to get attention.
@Anonymous 9:37 AM. Yea, so far it feels bust-ish. Temps were supposed to reach highs at midnight and it's still fairly reasonable outside. But who knows what the rest of the day holds.
ReplyDelete@big daddy...I think most people have pretty much written off this season. Yes, I know it isn't even mid-January yet and things can change. Yes, maybe it will now start getting a little cooler on a steadier basis, but the snow just doesn't seem to be in the cards for us this season. Again, today we have a rare chance of snow and the best anyone is predicting is maybe a token inch. There isn't anything to get excited about this season. I think most posters on this site enjoy the snow much more than the cold. Personally, I enjoy both, but honestly without snow the cold weather can lose its appeal fairly quick. I feel bad for us winter lovers and others whose livelihoods depend on real winter weather. I for one will not give up hope...until it would be foolish to do otherwise. With each passing day we get closer to spring. If another few weeks pass without having settled into a true winter pattern the result will be the realization that winter just isn't going to happen this season. People I know want winter when winter weather typically occurs around here (mid-November through mid-March). I don't know anybody that wishes for winter weather in April or May. A cold, even snowy, spring isnt' anymore fun than a "hot" dry winter.
ReplyDeleteWell said Snow Meiser. Could not agree more.
ReplyDeleteWhat a difference a year makes though!
Last winter at some points there were hints we may break the snowiest winter record.
This year I am sure we may soon be talking about challenging the least snowy winter on record (if it goes on this way).
At least we can say that we indeed live in interesting times :)
It's snowing like crazy here! I know it's not supposed to continue very long, so accumulations will be minimal. Still, visibility is only about 1/4-1/2 mile.
ReplyDeleteIt's still quiet downtown Mpls (27 floors up)! I can see the snow wall advancing from the west though.
ReplyDeleteWait, nevermind...spoke too soon! Flakes are flying downtown now.
ReplyDelete...and in a flash, it's gone. A very slushy coating (that will likely freeze to our cars by rush hour) is all we could muster.
ReplyDeleteThe snow seems to be drying up and disappearing on radar.
ReplyDeleteBusted forecast as I anticipated at 9.37am.
ReplyDeleteI think the airport will come with a trace at best.
1-2 inches??? I mean come on.
What happened to the Arctic Air with temperature crashing?
At noon it is 35 at MSP. 35 was supposed to be the high at midnight!
this talk about a busted forecast??? I really haven't paid that much attention to the local mets, however I would draw your attention to Dunae's post above, seems like he did a pretty good job.
ReplyDeleteit's looking more and more likely that other than this afternoon we will stay dry. But I would highly recommend that anyone with travel plans to WI delay them if at all possible, or at the very least make sure you have a good winter travel kit in your car, including a shovel to dig your tailpipe out in the event one should slip into the ditch.
@Randy A number of the television forecasters predicted an inch or two, and even three inches. I think the general public is likely feeling "bust."
ReplyDeleteThe forecasts I watched said not a lot during the day today but over the next few days 1-3" but knowing they are covering areas in W. Wisconsin and that they said not a lot in the metro I didn't get too excited.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if people forget how broad many stations are covering... its not just about the metro.
@My Blog
ReplyDeleteyes.. but if you look at their maps with the predicted amounts even if you tell me 1/2 to an inch and we get a trace that is a bust.
Otherwise let's all always predict 0 to 15 inches for every storm and we will be right 99% of the time.
And what is really a bust is again the hype about the evening commute which clearly refers to immediate metro area. Roads may even be completely dry by then!
This is a classic bust, Bill is right.
Assuming this ends up being a metro bust, the cost may be in allotted resources that were probably immobilized to treat roads tonight. That may be as real an effect as any of a missed forecast (our tax dollars).
ReplyDeleteThanks everyone
ReplyDeleteThe thinking is that a general 1"-3" snow will fall between now and Thursday evening. This first really thin band of precipitation moving through the metro and southern MN is only the beginning of this storm. In theory, the storm should intensify this afternoon/evening and more light snow should redevelop over our area especially in Wisconsin.
ReplyDeleteAs far as for the commute this afternoon, most forecasters mentioned that just a touch of light snow would cause slick conditions. As we all know, even the slightest coating of snow/ice can cause a challenging commute, especially if temperatures drop below freezing.
We will have to wait until tomorrow to confirm whether this was a bust or not.
Kare 11 showed NO MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS west of the St. Croix/Mississippi through tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteWhen it comes to "allotted resources" (did you mean alloCAted resources?), I'd rather the DOT err on the side of caution and salt the living daylights out of the roads. The idea that we may have wasted tax dollars on over-peparation due to a faulty weather forecast has never occurred to me.
ReplyDeletePatrick Hammer seems to feel it's essentially done. His tweet: The main story next 48 hours is cold winds, snow not a big part of this weather change for us.
ReplyDeleteWeatherUnderground now calls for little or no new snow accumulation.
As for forecasts, here's what I documented as of last night (about 6):
KARE – potentially a couple of inches by Thursday
FOX 1-2 inches by Thursday
WCCO ½ to 3 (went with model). Called it a wildcard
KSTP Could get a couple of inches, maybe a bit more in spots
NWS: No greater than 30% chance of snow; no accumulations mentioned
Weather.com: no significant snow accumulations
Accuweather: A “bit of snow”; no mention of accumulations
Strib: coating to ½”
As with all assessments of forecasts, it depends on what point in time you want to assess. As of last night, KARE was clearly expecting some snow (more than a trace was the obvious deduction) as were most others.
@Disco80 Yes, should have said allocated and you're right on erring on the side of caution. Nonetheless, it does appear that a more accurate forecast could have saved the cost of allocated resources.
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ReplyDeleteBy the way, if someone did predict 2"+ of snow over the metro, then this has bust written all over it. that appears much more likely near and east of the Wisconsin border. Hastings & Red Wing have a much better opportunity of receiving accumulating snow when compared to Maple Grove.
ReplyDeleteIt's really nasty outside right now. I had to go out for a few minutes and the cold wind just took my breath away. Still, I have to think it would be MUCH colder if we had snow cover.
ReplyDeleteSuppose I should share the conditions down here in Red Wing.
ReplyDeleteAbout a half inch has fallen, but the roads are being covered. It's still coming down in a moderate band, but I doubt we'll see anything over an inch. Anything we get however, will probably be blowing around all over, making conditions overnight and tomorrow morning a little tricky.
@Bill "As of last night, KARE was clearly expecting some snow (more than a trace was the obvious deduction) as were most others."
ReplyDeleteI'm not trying to defend Kare 11, but they actually showed a snow accumulation map last night that gave most of the metro little to nothing. "Coating to 2" was written on the SE side into WI. "Might pick up an inch" was the phrase of the morning, followed again by the emphasis that real snows would be way north and in WI.
If anything, I'd criticize them for keeping predictions too low for central WI, where they called for only 2-4 through tomorrow.
Again, I feel the need to remind people (I feel like a broken record) that life exists outside the loop. The 11-county metro extends west/east from Wright county through St. Croix county. I was never under the impression I was supposed to get any accumulations where I live based on the forecasts I saw (Kare/Strib). I was actually surprised to get our dusting.