Capricious Models Blamed for Changing Snow Forecast

As of late Monday night, nearly all weather outlets were minimizing snow forecasts. The primary exception was KSTP, which was still calling for 4-8 inches and the NWS, which was calling for 3-6 inches. Most other outlets had followed MPR's lead from earlier in the evening and were in the general 1-2 or 1-3 inch range, with most snow expected to fall on Wednesday. The latest comparative forecasts appear here.

The much-talked about major Tuesday/Wednesday snowstorm now seems to be in doubt for the Twin Cities as many forecasters began changing their forecasts late this morning. Most weather outlets predicted an increasing likelihood that mixed precipitation would bring snow accumulation down considerably. We're trying to keep track of the various and fast-changing forecasts here.

Given that so many snow forecasts have gone south (or north) this winter, TMF conducted its own investigation into why weather models are behaving so erratically. With a little digging, we found the cause. Using a well-placed spy camera we determined how the models were being guided and captured the picture below.

We'll continue to track the models, ehrrr forecasters, as the storm -- in whatever form it takes -- arrives in the Twin Cities.