Wednesday night update: Most forecasters saw a northward move in the Sunday storm, resulting in a general lowering of storm expectations.
As they're all quick to say, the storm is still still in the Pacific, tracks could change, it's not set in stone, etc..... BUT it's clear that virtually all weather outlets (traditional and less traditional) are closely watching a big storm for Sunday. Here were a few of the headlines we came across on Tuesday night.
 |
| Fox |
BRING IT!!!
ReplyDeleteCrossing fingers .. Besides it can help the drought so its all good. :-)
ReplyDeleteIt wil be fun to watch the system take shape the next few days before moving into the Plains on Saturday. The snow likely is to be impressive, but the WIND! That will be the clincher wherever they are maximized.
This storm has all the potential to be a BlockBuster. However, here is one red flag: Low level moisture may be lacking, especially on Sunday. If this is indeed the case, then areas near and south of the warm front would get skunked. The good news is that mid-level moisture will be plentiful so this storm should have no problem generating significant snows well north of the warm front where mid-level frontogenesis occurs. In other words, much of IA may get skunked while MN gets hammered. There will be a sharp cut-off to the precip. as you head south.
ReplyDeleteWith that being said, the track will be the key (isn't it always?). To receive the heavy snows, it will be crucial that your area be located a good 100 mi.+ north of the surface low track. Best of all, the snow shield will likely be rather wide and expansive, perhaps a 200 to 300 mile swath. I wouldn't be surprised if much of MN/WI receive a 6"+ dumping when all is said and done. Of course, this storm has the potential to produce 12"+ and this could be a fairly wide heavy snow swath.
BTW, has anybody noticed that the NAM continues to dump a significant snow over portions of so. MN Thursday AM? It has been consistent with this for 3 runs now and deposits 7" in RST. Could this be correct?
I really hope this airplane going to the system in the Pacific helps these model runs out. GFS is concerning because of the amount of cold air it shows wrapping into it. It almost looks too cold given the track. The foreign models continue to be a pain. The 12z Euro looked great, and now the 00z made another shift in things. Something else I'm not seeing yet, but am fully expecting to eventually see is the dry slot. This would certainly put a damper on things too. I need to see some similarities between the models before knowing which areas would have the best shot at seeing a big storm. I found the NAM interesting too Novak, and that is another point I wanted to make. That is only about 48 hours away and the models still differ on those details. If they can't quite get a great handle on things in that short of time, then I wonder how they handle things that haven't even formed yet. I remain confident that someone close to home will see a big storm (with blizzard conditions in the more wind prone areas), but that exact location is TBD. If this one skunks me here in WI I just may hang up the model computer until summer when severe weather season starts up.
ReplyDeleteHype, huh? When forecast guidance all points to something big it's now called "hype". Always get a kick out of this website.
ReplyDelete--Kevin.
Just for good measure the 06z NAM, although not as reliable due to the time of its run, has shifted the narrow snow band to the north, and pivots it pretty much over the metro area. Just another shift in another model that will lead to all sorts of confusion right through the weekend.
ReplyDeleteall along everyone keeps saying the GFS is junk and unreliable,inconsistent,never going to look at again,even nicknamed good for speculation,all winter long.Now whenever I turn around everyone who is talking about this weekends storm is always referencing how the GFS blows this thing up,how the GFS has been so consistent,if the GFS verifys watch out,"wow just took a look at the GFS"(FILL IN THE BLANK)....Why all of the sudden so much stock put into the GFS?
ReplyDelete@big daddy Good question. I was thinking the same thing.
ReplyDeleteThe reason for putting so much stock into the GFS was the fact that it was the most consistent model for this particular system. The euro which is usually more reliable has been making wild swings in the track of the system. I have seen models change a bit that far out but this was rediculous. GFS isn't always wrong...but history has shown the Euro to perform better in the winter around here than the GFS.
ReplyDeleteWell that good ol' GFS is now siding with the EURO,which places central MN in the line of heaviest snows,basically anywhere north of ST. Cloud,and the metro?,well the metro will see SOME snow,but as Novak alluded to earlier if your south of the warm front your not a happy snow lover,its only Wednesday morning and this too can and will change,heck looking at current models we may see more snow tommorrow then we saw Monday,so lets focus on that first,if you beleive the NAM then the metro gets a good 3-5 smack of snow late tonight and Thursday morning,then again just a coating.....'this is the days of our lives'...the drama of it all!
ReplyDeleteHere's an interesting cluster**** of a hazards map.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png
LOL. That's great.
DeleteSevere drought overlapping with heavy snow in Minnesota! High winds for the entire western third of the US! Where are the locusts?
Also the 0z runs did have recon data in them.
ReplyDeleteTHE 00Z GFS MODEL STARTED ON TIME. IN ADDITION TO GOOD NORTH
AMERICAN UPPER AIR COVERAGE...16 DROPSONDES WERE AVAILABLE
COURTESY OF A USAF C-130 WINTER STORM RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN.
This was an Air Force flight. The one I posted about yesterday was a NOAA flight that will be going in over the next couple days.
It seems that forecasters have finally come around to dealing with tonight first, which like big daddy said, could be more significant in some areas than Monday's storm. I don't think that will be over the Twin Cities though. The 6z run this morning has been the anomaly over the last couple of days. Southern MN from Marshall - Mankato - Rochester looks to be the most likely areas to see accumulating snows. This is a pretty strong clipper, so I think 2-4" is the most likely, but 3-5" in some spots is easily doable. I'd be surprised to see the Twin Cities get more than an inch, unless you're in the extreme southern suburbs.
ReplyDeleteLast night at midnight when I checked http://wunderground.com for my area in East Bethel for next weekend, it said Sunday - Day - 6 inches possible | Sunday Night - 6 inches possible | and now this morning, about 7 hours later...it's been changed to 1 inch possible. What happened overnight to change the weekend outlook?
ReplyDeleteEl Nino coming fast?
ReplyDeleteAll the ENSO regions warmed sustancially with Nino 3.4 up to -0.6C,warmer than the -1.0C that last week's update brought. In fact,Nino 1-2 close to South America is now in positive territory (+0.9C) This shows how La Nina is fading fast and Neutral ENSO will come in short order. The big question is if is going to warm even more and more to jump towards El Nino in a hurry.
@jMigz models moved north,track moving over the metro,snowfall is lower at this time,but stay tuned nothing is set in stone yet
ReplyDeleteFor tonight, Patrick Hammer tweeted, "Some snow tonight and tomorrow...around 1" for the metro, more south." An hour later, Dave Dahl tweeted, "Our light snow late tonight might turn out to be more than light! 2 to 4 inches or more could fall even in the #TwinCities by Thursday morn."
ReplyDeleteSurprise, surprise, this could be a big win for the Nam as far as Thursday goes, now the GFS is putting decent snows along the I-90 corridor, looks like somewhere from the metro south could see a plowabe snow event.
ReplyDeleteThe 12z run of the GEM Reg is hot off the press, this morning's run of the Nam is very similar, can't wait for the GFS.
ReplyDeletehttp://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_12/gemregPR12.14.gif?t=1329925394
12z nam with an strip of 0.5" QPF. Interesting.
ReplyDeleteGFS is further south with the low, keeping snow south along the I-90, with is nicely married with the 09z SREF ensemble mean.
ReplyDeleteFor the mega storm, the GFS is considerably weaker, the reason is, it misses the gulf moisture with the 850mb jet. The 850 map from 22/0z, notice the nice relative humidity coming up from the gulf.
ReplyDeletehttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20120222/00/gfs_namer_111_850_rh_ht.gif
now the 12z
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20120222/12/gfs_namer_093_850_rh_ht.gif
Winter storm watches for the MN counties of NWS La Crosse and Sioux Falls but nothing from MPX...yet.
ReplyDeleteCWY, my guess is that MPX will wait until the Euro comes out, to see if it supports the NAM/GEM Reg. If it doesn't they will probably throw one up to cover the HWO area of the CWA.
DeleteSo much of our focus was on the weekend, and now this little curve ball. Personally I think the NWS is jumping the gun a bit with the watch, but hey who am I to judge. 12z NAM still further north than the GFS or GEM...and even the GFS only puts down about 2 or 3 inches across southern MN. That, along with general melting since this will fall during the daytime hours and temps will be well above freezing, leads me to believe that unless there is a big shift in what the models are currently showing, the watch will either just be cancelled tomorrow or shifted to an advisory. The only places that may see close to warning criteria would be right on the MN/IA border. To top that off, the GFS was a bit of a buzz kill with the weekend system, only to spin up something for Tuesday night. This could be the shift we were waiting for with the data from the aircraft data. It is frustrating watching a system for days look so promising, and then just have it shift. I think it is time to hang up the good old computer till summer.
ReplyDeleteHang on everyone.....stay positive! With this much consistency, it has to happen--the big one. I was concerned last night when Chris Shaffer said that the latest model run shaved off 5 inches from the earlier model runs. However, I agree with randyinchamplin, the GFS may not be considering the Gulf moisture as much as it should. All I know is that storms have been trending south this entire winter. With the focus on central minneosota for the weekend storm, there could easily be a shift south and put us in the whopper part of the storm. I also believe that the storms that come through prior to future storms have an impact on the next storm. So....we will see where this next system goes through and how it affects the weekend. Bring it tonight and bring it this weekend.
ReplyDeleteWOWZER!
ReplyDelete...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* MAIN IMPACT...A BAND OF 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM CANBY...TO REDWOOD FALLS...TO OWATONNA. EMBEDDED IN
THIS...THERE COULD BE A VERY NARROW BAND WITH 7 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW.
From my (layman's) experience, the big storms that are seen 7-8 days ahead of time never really pan out (fully, at least). It's the ones that seem to blossom (modelwise) about 3 days before the actual event that seem most promising. I know this was the case before the domebuster in Dec. 2010. That wasn't considered a big threat until just a few days before it happened. It's sort of like how you want your favorite football to start peaking late in the season just before the playoffs as opposed to in the early part of the season. :-)
ReplyDeleteBIG ISSUE THIS TAF PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM LATE
ReplyDeleteTONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THESE TAFS...DISCARDED THE NAM /TOO
FAR NORTH/ AND BASICALLY TRENDED EVERYTHING AFTER THIS AFTERNOON
HEAVILY TOWARD THE GFS.
From the MPX 12z Aviation discussion
The 12z Euro is a total buzz kill. The next few days are going to have some pretty large bust potential due to the differences the models are showing. I agree with you Bill, and usually I don't put much thought into systems that far away. I just wanted to see one decent storm this winter and got a bit excited. I've been watching for this pattern shift for several weeks now, thinking it would happen around this time and just figured a storm would come with it. However, with the dome buster last year the Euro showed that storm for about 7 or 8 days straight (strayed for one run), when the GFS and GEM took it way south. GFS didn't catch onto that one until about 3 days before the storm. Tonight's 00z run should finally lock in on tomorrow stuff, but I have a feeling like this weekends forecast will have similar issues. Good luck forecasters...glad I don't have to deal with this for my job. For now...NAM is across southern MN and western WI with the heaviest for tomorrow...GFS is further south, and Euro is Iowa. GEM seems to be leaning towards Euro. For the weekend, Euro is a miss for pretty much all of central and southern MN...mostly affecting northern MN and North Dakota.
ReplyDeleteWell all I know for the domebuster is that, regardless of the models, forecast snow totals were essentially minimal three days before the event. See also: http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2010/12/snow-forecast-for-saturday-december-11_09.html.
DeleteThis storm is going to happen. Why do I know this? Because I've been waiting all dang winter for a decent snow, but will be in the Caribbean next week on a cruise... so I'll miss it.
ReplyDeleteThat guarantees you all some sweet snowfall.
I agree with you, Bill. It is also true that when stroms "line up," the model information regarding the "end of the train" storms is often inaccurate. That is why I don't believe the latest trends with the Sunday/Monday system (I don't like it, though!). We will see what this "weird" system for tonight and Thursday ends up to be. It is so strange that they are issuing this type of watch when the forecast for some of the areas within the watch area is only an inch or so. You can clearly see how gun shy they are to make a solid predication and we are only a few hours away from this event. Weird.
ReplyDeleteI gotta believe the NWS is a little gunshy after what happened here on Monday. While I never wrote a "forecast recap" for Monday's storm, I do think it was worse than many generally expected, at least when it came to accumulation on the roads. Still, a watch does seem to be overkill... then again who knows!
DeleteIf they think someone in the watch area could get 7 to 10 inches then how is it overkill? Sure most people in the watch area probably wont get more then 3 or 4" but its too tough of a forecast now to limit the watch down further.
Delete@CWY2190 On second thought, you're right.
ReplyDelete@CWY could you please share the link that you have for the AF reconnaissance mission...ie what discussion did you get that from
ReplyDeleteIts on the National Hurricane Center site.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml
Click under plan of the day.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA49 --
A. P55/ DROP 9 (45.0N 157.0W)/ 23/0000Z
B. NOAA9 23WSC TRACK55
C. 22/1930Z
D. 17 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 23/0600Z
Translated it says that its a NOAA flight with (I believe) the 9th dropsonde being at 45N 157W and the mission starting at 0z on the 23rd (6pm tonight for us).
Line C is take off time (1930z = 1:30pm) or about an hour ago.
Line D is the mission is to do 17 dropsondes
Line E is that the plane will fly at 41,000 to 45,000 feet and the mission will end at 6z (midnight central)
Of course I just realized you're probably talking about the one I posted in this thread not the previous one.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=adm&node=kwno
One more you might like. Model Diagnostic Discussion from NCEP.
ReplyDelete..CYCLONE CRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE DAY 2
PREFERENCE: NAM OR ECMWF
THE NAM...ECMWF...AND UKMET ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONSIDER THE GFS A LOWER PROBABILITY OUTLIER.
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNH/fxus10.chunk.html
Typical 2 storms,one will miss the metro to the south and another will miss it to the north,how freakin disappointing,I guess we should come to expect this this winter,we should just take our 2-5inch storm on Monday and call it a blessing,stare at,play with it,do all you need to do with it before it melts away and then enjoy the early spring,how pathetic not one decent storm the entire winter,that's a first for me living here
ReplyDeleteThe differences between WCCO's & KSTP's forecast for Thursdays snow event is amazing. WCCO says that the storm will stay in far southwest MN, while KSTP says the storm will move through Rochester to Winona and then south...
ReplyDeleteQuite the difference...
@Anonymous I thought the same thing. Hoping to grab screen captures to illustrate the difference. Also noted that Ken Barlow tried hard to minimize the graphics/accumulations that were presumably created by Dave Dahl.
ReplyDeleteQuick glance at the 00z NAM, and it's catching the Euro's solution for tomorrow. We'll see what the rest of the 00z runs do, but if the GFS drops into Iowa as well, then MPX and ARX will pull most or all of their watches.
ReplyDeleteSunday was jinxed as soon as Paul Huttner(Mr. Conservative)puts out a headline of 1-2 feet of snow could fall next two weeks.
ReplyDeleteYep. 0z NAM shows basically nothing north of the southern layer of MN counties.
ReplyDeleteDave Dahl went on twitter and said that the storm will now miss the Metro only Flurries.
ReplyDeleteI know you all want to say this. Can I say it? O.K., Here it goes....The GFS & NAM suck ass! Time for all of us to become more European. Wine & beer at lunch, 30 hour work weeks and weather computer models that actually can be trusted.
ReplyDeleteI may be the only one but I am holding out hope for Sunday. This one goes further south than expected and Sunday's could move south as well and nail us. Let's not get all negative now. It is only Wednesday!
ReplyDeleteThe GFS has been blue balling us all winter getting us all worked up just to get up and leave in the end. It looks like it will do it to us again early next week. 00z would be nice but I'm discounting it for now. Thanks nature.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteAnd don't forget about the potential storm for next Wednesday. That has huge potential.
ReplyDelete@Duane--What are you referring to with the "00z would be nice"? For which storm? What is it showing?
Paul Huttner asked that I post these comments; for some reason Blogger was not allowing his comments to come through. Thanks to Paul for contributing. (And as many of you may know, his blog can be found here: http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/updraft/)
ReplyDeleteHi Bill:
Congrats on a very interesting discussion on the site. It's nice to know there are so many fellow weather geeks around!
Technical point on the 1-2 feet forecast....that's for some locations in Minnesota and not metro specific.
From Tuesday's Updraft blog:
"If the forecasts verify, some parts of Minnesota could pick up 1 to 2 FEET of snow in the next 2 weeks including Monday's snowfall."
With 4"-5" down already and 2-3 systems in the next couple of weeks that still looks quite possible/likely. That's saying a lot....possibly matching snowfall for the entire winter in much of Minnesota in the next two weeks.
Don’t give up on Sunday snow for the metro yet…but if the track goes any further north we’ll see.
It's great to see all of you tossing around forecast variables...now you know what my life is like!
I'll make sure and pop in here when I can find the time.
Happy forecasting everyone…
Paul Huttner - MPR
@Plymouth, there is an even larger whopper of a system showing up on the GFS starting Tuesday morning. I won't let it fool me again though. The clipper headed for Iowa tomorrow looks great for them. The dynamics look great for heavy snow rates (probably in the 1-2 inch/hour range). Negative EPV directly located in the dendritic growth zone is just what is needed for high snow rates. Sioux Falls right on through central Iowa should see the most from that one.
ReplyDelete@Plymouth see what happens when you BRING IT one too many times,it got brought by your brothers in Iowa and then by your sisters in Duluth,why even look at next week,arent you all brought out by now,the GFS is sure buying you out and yet you keep asking him for more,be like Novak and trust the Europeans!
ReplyDeleteIf we are going to trust the Europeans...I guess they are actually agreeing with the Americans with that Tues system...just something else to watch, and probably get upset with. One of these has to be correct...right? hahaha!
ReplyDeleteSo are we all in agreement that the GFS is back to being the Good For Speculation model,I just knew it was too good to be true when everyone was saying the GFS this and the GFS that, for the past week it seems everyone wanted to believe what the GFS was selling(including me)cuz we just wanted a good ol' snowstorm at least once this year,thanks for the tease.
ReplyDelete@Bill did you get to ask Paul Huttner why the change to wunderground forecast vs. NWS forecast on their MPR weather page,it is so misleading and hiliarious everytime I check it out,earlier today it had up to 13 inches of snow for TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY of next week,looked at it right now,still calling for 12 inches(10 inches Tuesday night),these are some outragous numbers, coming from MPR/PaulHuttner who are so conservative and play it close to the hip,their viewers must be confused,maybe you wont have to ask if Mr. Huttner sees this post.
ReplyDeleteI'll be connecting with him again soon and will ask him.
Delete@Novak why so down on the American weather models,big snows in 'upper midwest' today and Sunday and next Wednesday,dude you nailed it,see that wasnt so hard expand the real estate and your predictions are golden,who cares if it snows where you live or the metro,except for maybe the 90% of those on here live within a hour of the loop.
ReplyDeleteSorry but this GFS bashing is complete bull. If the storm Monday still happens and it appears it will then the GFS will have nailed it 8 days out with a track accuracy of within 300 miles. Thats an amazing forecast.
ReplyDeleteIs that the standard CWY2190,300 miles?that's a difference of a blizzard or sunshine across one state
ReplyDeleteIf you asked for my opinion (what, you didn't?) I would say the GFS / NAM bashing is warranted. If you can't depend on them for an upcoming event that is within 24 hours then what can you depend on it for? If it somehow nails this upcoming storm from 8 days out then I only can think of the old saying - even a broken clock is right twice day.
ReplyDelete@Novak and @DysonGuy are right, the NAM and GFS are terrible a lot of the time. The ECMWF has had this mornings snowfall pinned down pretty well for the last couple of days. The NAM had a 200 mile swing between yesterday's 12z and last nights 00z runs. Less than 24 hours out, that's terrible. One thing I will give the GFS credit for, is that it will pick up changes in the jet stream pretty well, even 200-300 hours out. But don't pay attention to placement of surface features that far out.
ReplyDeleteWhat is the latest on the storms advertised for Sunday and Wednesday? Just reading some of the media outlets this morning and they seem to already be looking toward the Wednesday potential, seemingly putting aside the Sunday event. Did it shift that much in the models? Or are they down playing the unknowns/variables.
ReplyDelete12z gfs tracks even further north keeping Msp area almost dry.
ReplyDelete60 degrees high for march 10.
this is it guys.
lucky if we end up with 20 inches total for winter.
Weather.com has bumped up Sunday's highs by 5-10 degrees and is now calling for rain/snow (more rain than snow it looks like). I assume this has to do with the northerly shift the models have taken.
ReplyDeleteGood. I'm traveling this weekend and need clear roads.
ReplyDeleteYes, I am a snow lover and that was one of the reasons I moved to Minnesota 10 years ago from native Australia when my then employer offered me the opportunity.
ReplyDeleteBut you know what?
who cares if this winter has been a disappointment! We'll get more snow next winter,and if not, we will the one after that.
A funny thing though I should mention: during last winter snowy paradise, I once half jokingly told my ( minnesotan) wife that we snow lovers were going to pay back such a nice winter for a long time.
I am now starting to entertaint and dread the notion, that I may have been right.
I see this winter as payback for LAST winter's insanity. That was more snow than I need for an entire lifetime, let alone one winter.
DeleteThis has been the best winter of my 34 years.
Brief update...Sun continues to look like metro and north, and Euro took a little bump south but not enough to make much of a difference. Tuesday Euro sped up its timing and deepened the low even more, continuing to show the system it did yesterday but stronger. GFS is weaker with it, but still has it. GEM in the Euro camp for Tues. This will be a test of our European friends to see how well their models do. Worth watching for sure, but way to early to be excited about.
ReplyDeleteBiggest difference with Sunday's storm is that it's a Pacific storm with relying on pacific moisture. The gulf will be closed off. Still central/northern MN could easily see 4-8" which is nothing to sneeze at, especially this winter. Tuesday's storm is different as the Gulf of Mexico will be wide open, which will allow for heavy snows and a severe outbreak through the south. Will it move far enough north to hit MN? Right now the Euro says yes. We'll see though.
ReplyDeleteAnyone take a look at the 12Z euro run? Shows a huge storm 120 hours out. will be intereresting
ReplyDeletehttp://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0
you may have to cli8ck onto it. Look at snowfall...
Anyone want to see some impressive snowfall totals for next week off the individual ensemble of the GFS?? To view them choose GFS Individual Ensemble Images, Once that page opens chose snowfall total 12z at the bottom of the page. When that page opens the operational will be on the upper left, the rest of the maps are the individual members. To view each one place your courser on the map and right click. There are 6 of them that take the track of the Tues Wednesday storm way north. Because of speed differences of the ensembles it is best viewed at 180 hours.
ReplyDeletehttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html
enjoy!!!
As far as I'm concerned, massive precip totals for 120 hours are a BAD thing when you consider that things always change. Then again what I do know....
ReplyDeleteBill, chances of that verifying are low...but it is entertaining as H*** to watch
DeleteWOW!!!! please don't tease me like this Mr Euro WOW, OH MY!!! I cant show this because of propitiatory reasons but the Euro lays down 18+" over southern MN south of St Cloud. With TWO FEET or better in the far SW metro, to the sw corner of the state. Including today's snowfall there is a pocket in far south west corner of the state with 30-36"...OH MY!!! if only that would verify!!
ReplyDeleteIf anyone wants to see it go to ACCU Weather home page, choose premium services, select ACCU Professional, and sign up for the free 30 day trail. Once your registered go to Forecast Models. I like to use the animator then choose ECMWF, in the drop down window select total snowfall to forecast hour 10:1 ratio. But remember because of a agreement between ACCU and the EC you can not post these images on line.
@Randyinchamplin It's like you've just met a drop-dead gorgeous model and you can only describe what she looks like! (Apologies to any women following on this blog. :-))
ReplyDeleteLM*O
DeleteInteresting how we already drop ship on Sunday and moved onto Tuesday night/Wednesday Euro storm............its like you couldn't wait to go on this date for 8 days and when your finaly on it you meet someone else and make a date for Tuesday night.MPR/wunderground weather page still has up to 13 inches forecasted for Randys new date,Randy don't pick her up,if you do you will ruin your Feburary snow prediction of 3-4inches.
ReplyDeleteOn a side note,what a total buzz kill for Sunday,I was hoping to watch the Daytona 500 while in the middle of a snowstorm(I could see me now fliping back and forth between the race and the local radar,yes I'm a weather geek)now the NWS has rain mentioned with the snow and the high has climbed all the way to 38,good grief what a difference from 36 hours ago,that's why I warn all of you don't put all your eggs in one basket for next Tuesday because that too can change,but nice to see its the Euro and not the GFS
Wunderground and weather.com has pulled the plug for next Tuesday/Wednesday storm no mention of any snow what so ever,early spring anyone?
ReplyDelete@Anonymous I saw that on the mpr weather page that it doesnt mention 13 inches of snow for Tuesday night,dont know what to trust or look forward to anymore!.....but check out the energy blossoming just west of the metro and moving east right now,little bit of a surprise snow for tonight?
ReplyDeleteWith the models being so erratic lately, it makes it difficult to buy into the large totals of the Tuesday system. The 23.00Z GFS just cut the total by about half. Feels like Deja vu of Sunday's weather maker.
ReplyDelete00z cut totals in half due to the change in track...making things warmer. At this point it is too early to speculate on exactly what would happen for Tues. Hell we could wake up in the morning and watch the models take it up the east coast...or they could turn it right back into an all out snowstorm for us...or they could track it up by us and have it weaken to the point where we get flurries. We just don't know just what will happen yet. At this point in time, however, models are showing Tuesday/Wednesday to be a mess of everything. Rain, sleet, frz rain, snow, the whole gambit. All we can do is watch the models and see if they all start agreeing on something.
ReplyDeleteAnother thing to do for each system (sunday and tue/wed) is track the tendancy of the models as we approach each even. Its obvious that this weekends storm, which looked onimous a week out for someone will probably just be an average snow event for northern MN. Lets see if that same tendancy occurs with the mid-week storm, or will it actually get more impressive as time goes on. i am surprised more meteorologists don't end up on ledges with how crazy and erratic the models can be. Which i guess would explain why you shouldnt 100 percent rely on models. But hey at least there are storms out there to talk about unlike 98 percent of what this winter has been; zzzzzz.
ReplyDeleteSome early morning developments/discussion:
ReplyDeleteSunday system still on track to go thru central MN at this time,NWS says less then 4in amounts south of St. Cloud to 0 towards Iowa border,which means we could still end up with a couple of inches,any shift southward obviously would increase our snowfall here in the metro(which is still possible,cuz models are known for being wrong and dancing around even 24hrs out)*winter storm watch is up as far south as Fergus Falls,180 miles from Minneapolis,so its close we just need the storm to wobble south now.As for the Tuesday/Wednesday system NWS has 'snow likely' wording already which for 4 1/2 days out shows some pretty good confidence,rarely do you see likely this far out,also the track of the storm currently goes across the Iowa/Mn border which places the heavy snow across central mn thru east central mn into north east Wisconsin(metro lays within that path)also favorable for a heavy snowfall is this statement from the NWS 'this system has the potential of being a heavy snow producer with much better gulf fetch',so in closing there is still hope for moderate to heavy snowfall over the next 5-6 days,yes it can change hopefully for us snow lovers a change that is favorable for more snow,I misspoke on one of my earlier posts wunderground on the MPR site has up to 15inches from Mon. night till Wed night,Plymouth Weather Lover do your bring it dance! alongside Novak's snow dance.
They had "snow likely" for Sunday 4-5 days out too. Now it's, what, a 40% chance of rain/snow mix? They also originally expected the Sunday storm to be able to tap gulf moisture. Now, it will be a mostly west-to-east track. Nothing is likely 4-5 days out, despite what a forecast says.
ReplyDeleteCome on AB if you want the snow keep the faith,positive mental thinking! I see a few mets are throwing the boring,lame,traditional 1-3 blanket out already for Sunday..............Tuesday is stil looking promising for big snow in and around the metro.
ReplyDeleteSunday's event still there with northern part of the state being impacted -- given uncertainty of models is why I said MN with no reference to Twin Cities, Rochester, Mankato, Duluth, etc. Just too difficult to nail down specifics 4 or 5 days out. Overall, the models have done so-so at best this winter not only in the Midwest but also the Eastern Seaboard/Northeast! So Sunday a quick blast "up North" and then Tue-Wed another one with Euro picking up first with GFS and others now aboard. NAM now showing signals of this in latter periods. Pattern looks to be busy into March as well. A colleague mentioned winter of 2002-2003 with a similar pattern. We shall see! Meanwhile the severe weather here in the Southeast has gotten an early start this year.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the 12Z GFS Run the Tue/Wed storm looks to take almost the same track as the Sunday storm! Uggg (patience I know)
ReplyDelete"Come on AB if you want the snow keep the faith"
ReplyDeleteI couldn't care less if it snows. I'm skiing on Sunday, probably for the last time, and my softball team is starting organize for the summer. I'll take a dumping if it comes, but for the most part, I'm thinking spring.
Softball sounds fun!
Delete@DDwx this is actually very similar to the winter of 2006/2007, the last year we had a brown Christmas. It was dry and warm most of the winter, until two big snow storms came through the last week of February - 1st of March.
ReplyDeleteWe may see some changes in the modeling tonight as the hurricane hunters will be out this afternoon. I think there is a 3 in 10 chance that this system will eventually take a track more similar to the JMA model. The reason I say this is because of the strong surface ridge that will be present over Hudson Bay. This storm may take the path of least resistance and not cut up as quickly as the GFS and Euro are suggesting. The key phrase here is "3 in 10 chance."
ReplyDeletehttp://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif
Bill, regarding your comment about the grading the models vs the weather-casters: Yes the models have been horrible, however the upper level jet is way south of us and we have some of the coldest air aloft of the season over the upper midwest. There was no way the L that dropped snow over the Dakotas and Iowa was going to work its way north. So many forecasters look at the models and not at what is happening currently and extrapolating for themselves.
ReplyDeleteAlso there seems to be a handful of weather forecasters trying to predict the big snowfall of the season 10 days or more out. Way to much of crying wolf.
@AmerWx Please send us an email: mnforecaster@gmail.com
ReplyDeleteRandy it looks like the Hurricane Hunters aren't starting until 0z so the dropsondes wont be in until the 6z models.
ReplyDeleteok thanks
DeleteUgh! Model verification is not as subjective as everyone here makes it out to be.
ReplyDeleteWeather.com must be feeling bullish. I never see them forecast more than a snow shower for a storm that's a few days out, yet they have "snow" plain and simple written for Tuesday/Wednesday in my area. Seems crazy to me, considering the consistently inconsistent storm tracks we've seen.
ReplyDeleteA sign of the threat imposed by the Tue/Wed storm, or just another weather outlet going out on a limb???
They are also putting out potential accumulations for the Sun/Mon storm. An inch Sat night and an inch on Sunday. I anticipate that will change to the lesser as the storm approaches.
Big change in the GFS, not so much on the track, but it now looks to be all snow from MSP and points north, just doing a quick preview, when bufkit info gets in I will now more about snowfall ratio's but it appears to anywhere from may 9:1 to as much as 15+:1 on the back side, QPF at MSP is 1.40", about the same at ST Cloud but with a colder profile.
ReplyDelete@AB where are you again??? I have a hole over the NE Metro due to lack of a reporting airport.
I'm in the heart of Carver County. The forecast threw me off because weather.com has probably been the least bullish (and because of that, likely the most right) all winter. For them to call for significant snow 4-5 days out? Wow.
DeletePaul Douglas just tweeted: "OK. I don't believe it (yet). GFS hinting at 3-6" MSP metro Monday night - Wed, over 1 foot up north? 2 early to panic." Graphic he cited can be found here: https://twitter.com/#!/pdouglasweather/status/173265859886854144/photo/1
ReplyDeleteI believe that was the 18z run of the GFS, the 0z will go up.
Deletehere is the 18z.
Is that the same map?
http://wxcaster4.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=18Z&STATIONID=MPX
allow it to load in
opps forgot move the courser over the map to read the totals
DeleteAnyone know if can view previous forecasts from the NWS? (vs. just the current one)
ReplyDeletesorry I don't
Delete@randyinchamplin are you refering about the Tuesday/Wednesday storm in your last post.
ReplyDelete@Bill i assume you read PD blogs daily,if so you would know he always mentions how the Euro is the more reliable model and consistent one,not the GFS,but it kills me when he talks about anything up coming he references the GFS,doesnt make any sense.
Tues-Wednesday
Delete72 hour Nam snowfall from the 0z run, GFS isn't up yet
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_72HR.gif
Bummed about Sunday storm going so far north. Weird how one goes south and the next goes north. Now, let the big one on tuesday split the difference. Bring It!! Are you guys worried about the recent northern shift in the recent model runs for Tuesday?
ReplyDeletePWL....with the surface ridge setting up over the Hudson Bay area, I don't see the track going much further north than what it is now. As a matter of fact I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop south a bit.
DeleteHot off the press, I deleted the snowfall ratio, b/c I don't know what it will be, this is just using the Cobb method, and max temp in profile. YIKES
ReplyDeletehttp://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/images/plotter.php?site=kmsp&var=snow_accum&nam=0&namm=0&gfs=1&gfsm=1&ruc=1&nam_mos=0&gfs_mos=0&gfsm_mos=0&nws=1&obs=1&con=1&max_t=1&cobb=1&compaction=1&ratio=0
I expected this out of the GFS, it was way to warm at 12 and 18z for a nearly stacked system. When you close a low off from 500mb down to the surface and each layer is stacked above the lower layer, the system creates is own cold air. Mets often call it manufactured cold, instead of cold working into it from the north.
DeleteHaving said all of this, of course the track could change and make a huge difference. However if the track stays true, it smells like a big time dry slot setting up somewhere, and it could be over the metro, if that would happen, cut those totals in half. At this time the GFS is hinting at that. Even so if the track hold true, it could mean a break in our drought. Normally to break a drought, it takes one major event. Drought begets drought precip begets precip. Not always but most of the time it's true.
DeleteWOW!!!
ReplyDeletehttp://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=MPX
having shown this the ECMWF has now dropped slightly south, not by much, say maybe 75 miles but I think it's feeling the affects of the Hudson Bay surface ridge. The question is this mornings run of the NOGAPS was way south. So how far south will it go???
stay tuned this will be interesting to say the least, if not entertaining. LOL
I see it a lot with tropical cyclones. Once the models start trending one direction it usually keeps going in that direction. Very rarely will it go north then south then north then south. It will go south then south then south until it finally locks into the true track.
ReplyDelete@Bill yes you can view previous NWS forecasts,click into the forecast discussion page when in the discussion page near the top it says 'versions" then a list of numbers(usually 1 to 40+)number 1 is the current page your looking at and the rest of them is all the successive forecasts going back till you reach the last one,I just took a look at it goes back the last 43 discussions(this also includes discussions for aviation stuff as well),hope this helps,can I ask what your looking for.
ReplyDelete@AB,so you put more stock in a event occuring when the weather channel writes snow for a particular day as opposed to the NWS using the wording snow likely,to me they seem the same and I would trust the NWS far more with a local forecast then I would with a national outlet.
After reading the the discussion page I have one word for Tuesday/Wednesday storm: UNCERTAINITY. but at least theres something to watch,hell theres even word of another system friday
@Big Daddy. Thanks. Was just curious to see what one could find going back. Not sure how I missed such an obvious thing!
DeleteFantastic AFD from the guys in Chanhassen.
ReplyDelete@Bill forgot to mention probably time for a new headline,considering tommorrow's storm will be wimpy for our area,but Tuesday/Wednesday is looking promising(fingers are crossed and toes for a dumping)
ReplyDelete@Novak your eerily quiet for so much going on around us,like to hear whats on your mind.
@big daddy, usually I would trust the local guys too, but there have been too many times this winter when the NWS (located 7 miles from my house) has had to adjust the forecast down significantly within 24 hours of a storm, while weather.com had it right all along. Just like models trend, so do forecasters because they typically use the same techniques over and over again.
ReplyDelete@AB I'm totally tracking with your comments on weather.com.
ReplyDeleteI love Hudson Bay!!
ReplyDeleteAlas, a new thread set up for Tuesday/Wednesday storm.
ReplyDelete