We average 8 inches of snow between now and the end of April. So...there has to be a turn and we will see snowflakes at some point. Any future forecast that looks like a nasty spring snowstorm? Bring it. Just one more time!
Here is what I posted on americanwx.com I feel this is correct for us. I do not believe we will be in a slight risk for Monday, I think that the SPC will pull that down to a 5% chance and possibly a see text when push comes to shove, I think we will have to much cloud cover Monday to increase cape values much more than about 200-250.
"My thoughts for day three, (Monday.) Here in Minnesota according to the nam we could have a low cape high sheer event, ie cape around 750 or so, with 0-1 km sheer around 20 knts, and 0-6 around 40, soundings show this to be all unidirectional. The Euro however has been very consistant with almost no cape at all, at best 200, as the 850-700mb layer shows high RH values around 70-80., By Monday morning we should be trapped under a pretty good cloud deck. The Nam shows some sun, but I don't trust it. Therefore I don't think the SPC's current day 3 (monday) forecast of a 15% chance of severe will verify, more like a 5% chance.
Moving on to TX and OK, here is where I think the Nam does the best job, ie closest to where severe will be. I too agree that a big threat is working towards central to north central Tx Monday evening, cape values are high and the sheer profiles are quite impressive just ahead of the dry line at 21z Mon thru 03z Tues. Precip values are rather low at around .25 to .50 suggesting that any super cells would be LP in nature (a storm chasher's dream). I think chances for EF2 to a EF4 are quite high at this time. I think we have all have seen the crossover winds.
The overnight hours have me really concerned for TX.. as the storms become more linear , the sheer values seem to increase, so using Minnesota lingo, look out for top side Lena and tail end Ole, as well as midsection Lena/Ole, any cells that can seperate themselves from the line could produce a night time tornado.
Stay safe everyone!!
BTW the Nam is just lousy during the cold season, I very seldom look at it, and when I do, I get a good laugh!!! LOL
PS: I still think the SE OK is under the gun as well"
So....here is my question for those of you who are weather experts--much more than I am. Since our weather right now is about 40 degrees above average for a week now, is it the same "probability" that it can be 40 degrees below average for a week or so? (I am not talking about this year, but in general.) So, then there could, in theory, there could be a week of highs in the single digits?? That seems crazy to me. But I would love to hear your opinions!
I think it would be more probable that there would be a week of highs in the single digits than what it is now. The reason I think this is because the majority of the time we'd have snow on the ground at this time of the year and that would keep temps low. Very rarely do we have this lack of snow cover over the upper Midwest and I believe that contributed to this "heat wave".
Give it up Plymouth,u need to wait till November again,from the NWS discussion page............."temps likely above normal thru the end of the month with no canadian air mass or modified artic airmass in sight",normal high now is 47,so we will be warmer then that,just something to chew on!
Here's a frightening thought that just occurred to me. Our recent highs have been a good 35-40F above average. Just think if that were to happen in July -- we'd have highs around 120. I'm guessing the likelihood of that is lower than what we're seeing now. But who could have predicted this heat wave? This is by far the strangest March weather I've ever seen, coming off the strangest winter I've ever seen.
I don't think we can definitively say that July won't also be very weird. I have to believe that insurance companies are sweating right now, and not from the heat.
Most all of western MN is now in a slight risk area, the biggest threat is wind and hail. However looking at the short range modeling I'm mildly surprised they didn't include eastern MN as well. Best time frame seems to be around 3pm far sw MN to around 8pm eastern MN.
If the weather wasnt crazy enough this winter,and yes it is still winter till tommorrow afternoon now we might have possible severe weather to deal with,simply amazing!but please anything to break this heat its March for heavens sake,I understand this warmth in May/June but not in March,disappear warmth and don't come back anytime soon
We'll have to keep an eye on things for early next week as more severe potential could work into the area, although at this time probably focused more towards western MN, South Dakota, and Nebraska. HPC surface maps show a nice warm front/cold front set up with a decent low pressure system with it. It's just something to monitor over the next week or so.
New GFS runs bring better instability across a larger part of southern MN and western WI early next week (Tues to be exact), and that low continues to look impressive, with the GFS taking it down to 996mb. Warm front draped just north of the metro into WI with quite the cold front coming down behind it. Heck, it even has dewpoints into the low 60's. The set up certainly is worth watching, but it is still much to soon to narrow down the exact details. If it did pan out though, the warnings would be a bit more widespread than they were on Monday.
@big daddy...yeah there is a cold shot in about a week for now. I'm not sure on the snow aspect, since the snow cover around us is all gone, and I can't believe that temps will be cold enough to support snow from falling, but I guess we'll see. I'll let that time frame get closer before putting much thought into that. I do think that temps take a pretty good dip for a short time, before rebounding back up.
With severe weather season upon us, I'm curious as to what others in here think of as an "outbreak" of severe storms. Would you classify 5 confirmed tornadoes as an outbreak, or have the systems of this year and last spring put a new definition to the word?
The models continue to frustrate me, as it doesn't seem right that given how warm it has been, along with the path of the low and strength of it, that it isn't pulling up warmer air than what is currently being shown. The only thing I can think of is the models generating precip through the day and keeping our temps down. Given the norm with warm/cold front systems, it would seem like we should see some sun after the low lifts through. The suns effects aren't quite what they will be come June or July, but if some areas can break out into some sunshine on Tues before that cold front sweeps through, it could be a pretty big day. Shear values are more than supportive for supercells, and the triple point passes pretty much over the southern half of the state, according to the HPC maps. If we want widespread thunderstorms on Tues, the sun will be needed for the cold front to trigger them. The warm front, however, could fire up activity without the use of daytime heating, but any surface heating will just make things even more unstable.
If the weather wasnt crazy enough this winter,and yes it is still winter till tommorrow afternoon now we might have possible severe weather to deal with,simply amazing!but please anything to break this heat its March for heavens sake,I understand this warmth in May/June but not in March,disappear warmth and don't come back anytime soon
We average 8 inches of snow between now and the end of April. So...there has to be a turn and we will see snowflakes at some point. Any future forecast that looks like a nasty spring snowstorm? Bring it. Just one more time!
ReplyDeleteHere is what I posted on americanwx.com I feel this is correct for us. I do not believe we will be in a slight risk for Monday, I think that the SPC will pull that down to a 5% chance and possibly a see text when push comes to shove, I think we will have to much cloud cover Monday to increase cape values much more than about 200-250.
ReplyDelete"My thoughts for day three, (Monday.) Here in Minnesota according to the nam we could have a low cape high sheer event, ie cape around 750 or so, with 0-1 km sheer around 20 knts, and 0-6 around 40, soundings show this to be all unidirectional. The Euro however has been very consistant with almost no cape at all, at best 200, as the 850-700mb layer shows high RH values around 70-80., By Monday morning we should be trapped under a pretty good cloud deck. The Nam shows some sun, but I don't trust it. Therefore I don't think the SPC's current day 3 (monday) forecast of a 15% chance of severe will verify, more like a 5% chance.
Moving on to TX and OK, here is where I think the Nam does the best job, ie closest to where severe will be. I too agree that a big threat is working towards central to north central Tx Monday evening, cape values are high and the sheer profiles are quite impressive just ahead of the dry line at 21z Mon thru 03z Tues. Precip values are rather low at around .25 to .50 suggesting that any super cells would be LP in nature (a storm chasher's dream). I think chances for EF2 to a EF4 are quite high at this time. I think we have all have seen the crossover winds.
The overnight hours have me really concerned for TX.. as the storms become more linear , the sheer values seem to increase, so using Minnesota lingo, look out for top side Lena and tail end Ole, as well as midsection Lena/Ole, any cells that can seperate themselves from the line could produce a night time tornado.
Stay safe everyone!!
BTW the Nam is just lousy during the cold season, I very seldom look at it, and when I do, I get a good laugh!!! LOL
PS: I still think the SE OK is under the gun as well"
So....here is my question for those of you who are weather experts--much more than I am. Since our weather right now is about 40 degrees above average for a week now, is it the same "probability" that it can be 40 degrees below average for a week or so? (I am not talking about this year, but in general.) So, then there could, in theory, there could be a week of highs in the single digits?? That seems crazy to me. But I would love to hear your opinions!
ReplyDeleteI think it would be more probable that there would be a week of highs in the single digits than what it is now. The reason I think this is because the majority of the time we'd have snow on the ground at this time of the year and that would keep temps low. Very rarely do we have this lack of snow cover over the upper Midwest and I believe that contributed to this "heat wave".
DeleteGive it up Plymouth,u need to wait till November again,from the NWS discussion page............."temps likely above normal thru the end of the month with no canadian air mass or modified artic airmass in sight",normal high now is 47,so we will be warmer then that,just something to chew on!
ReplyDeleteHere's a frightening thought that just occurred to me. Our recent highs have been a good 35-40F above average. Just think if that were to happen in July -- we'd have highs around 120. I'm guessing the likelihood of that is lower than what we're seeing now. But who could have predicted this heat wave? This is by far the strangest March weather I've ever seen, coming off the strangest winter I've ever seen.
ReplyDeleteI don't think we can definitively say that July won't also be very weird. I have to believe that insurance companies are sweating right now, and not from the heat.
Most all of western MN is now in a slight risk area, the biggest threat is wind and hail. However looking at the short range modeling I'm mildly surprised they didn't include eastern MN as well. Best time frame seems to be around 3pm far sw MN to around 8pm eastern MN.
ReplyDeletehttp://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/slightriskarea.png
If the weather wasnt crazy enough this winter,and yes it is still winter till tommorrow afternoon now we might have possible severe weather to deal with,simply amazing!but please anything to break this heat its March for heavens sake,I understand this warmth in May/June but not in March,disappear warmth and don't come back anytime soon
ReplyDeleteWatching a severe T-storm down in Iowa work its way north...
ReplyDeleteWe'll have to keep an eye on things for early next week as more severe potential could work into the area, although at this time probably focused more towards western MN, South Dakota, and Nebraska. HPC surface maps show a nice warm front/cold front set up with a decent low pressure system with it. It's just something to monitor over the next week or so.
ReplyDeleteNew GFS runs bring better instability across a larger part of southern MN and western WI early next week (Tues to be exact), and that low continues to look impressive, with the GFS taking it down to 996mb. Warm front draped just north of the metro into WI with quite the cold front coming down behind it. Heck, it even has dewpoints into the low 60's. The set up certainly is worth watching, but it is still much to soon to narrow down the exact details. If it did pan out though, the warnings would be a bit more widespread than they were on Monday.
ReplyDelete@Duane isn't there a shot of cold and snow at the tail end of Tuesdays storm,or was I reading the GFS model wrong.
ReplyDelete@big daddy...yeah there is a cold shot in about a week for now. I'm not sure on the snow aspect, since the snow cover around us is all gone, and I can't believe that temps will be cold enough to support snow from falling, but I guess we'll see. I'll let that time frame get closer before putting much thought into that. I do think that temps take a pretty good dip for a short time, before rebounding back up.
ReplyDeleteWith severe weather season upon us, I'm curious as to what others in here think of as an "outbreak" of severe storms. Would you classify 5 confirmed tornadoes as an outbreak, or have the systems of this year and last spring put a new definition to the word?
ReplyDeletewatching carefully how this upcoming low evolves, my predicition could become truthful yet...
ReplyDeleteThere has been one tornado so far within the viewing area.
The models continue to frustrate me, as it doesn't seem right that given how warm it has been, along with the path of the low and strength of it, that it isn't pulling up warmer air than what is currently being shown. The only thing I can think of is the models generating precip through the day and keeping our temps down. Given the norm with warm/cold front systems, it would seem like we should see some sun after the low lifts through. The suns effects aren't quite what they will be come June or July, but if some areas can break out into some sunshine on Tues before that cold front sweeps through, it could be a pretty big day. Shear values are more than supportive for supercells, and the triple point passes pretty much over the southern half of the state, according to the HPC maps. If we want widespread thunderstorms on Tues, the sun will be needed for the cold front to trigger them. The warm front, however, could fire up activity without the use of daytime heating, but any surface heating will just make things even more unstable.
ReplyDeletehere in Boston is pretty cold (for me)
ReplyDelete50'F (Boston) looking forward to summer.. can't wait
even though past winter wasn't cold
If the weather wasnt crazy enough this winter,and yes it is still winter till tommorrow afternoon now we might have possible severe weather to deal with,simply amazing!but please anything to break this heat its March for heavens sake,I understand this warmth in May/June but not in March,disappear warmth and don't come back anytime soon
ReplyDelete