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Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Rumors of Mid-April Snow Flakes
The possibility of a few mid-April snow flakes would hardly be noteworthy in any other year, but in this year of March summer it seems so implausible. Here were a few of the weather forecaster comments regarding the possibility of snow next week.
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I saw the GEM and the GFS converge on the idea of snow by the noon hour, but I didn't post it b/c I had to leave for work at 130pm just after the ECMWF confirmed it, timing issue are still to be determined, as well as if any snow will fall. For those of you that saw my post on the last thread, I had just about given up on severe weather for Saturday until tonight's run of the NAM came out, now I'm not so sure, but it's toward the end it's run, will have to see what the GFS and Euro show.
ReplyDeleteSNOW??!! AAAIIEEEEE!!
ReplyDelete*deep breaths*
Unbelieveable!..wouldnt it be something after such a weird lame winter and very warm start to spring we get pounded by a snowstorm on April 16th,that would be literially icing on the cake.....NWS getting more gongho about snow chances for early next week....they have snow chances for the heart of the metro from Sunday night thru Tuesday morning...in their discussion they speak of accumulating snows running from eastern South Dakota to Duluth...as PD would say "getting to close for comfort"...speaking of PD does anyone find it abit strange that were hearing of snow chances from PD and PH and NOT DD
ReplyDeleteWell I did hear from DD this morning on his KS95 radio spot,was talking snow for late Monday into Tuesday,he said snow should mix with rain and even go over to plain all snow,depending on timing a couple of slushy inches is not out of the question.......there you have it Plymouth Weather Lover you asked and you asked,you begged and you begged and you just might get what you wished for.....what's the old saying "be careful what you wish for",if this turns out to be more then a few flakes there will be some crabby people come Tuesday morning.
ReplyDeleteCan you believe this shit? The Euro is cranking-out 2 healthy and cold storms over the next 10 days. Both of them have similar characteristics. If the solutions verify, parts of MN will need to get their shovels ready, and we are not just talking about a couple of sloppy inches.
ReplyDeleteI do like the severe weather set-up for SAT/SUN across the southern 1/4 or so of MN. Divergence aloft at jet level, 850mb jet surging north into the Upper Midwest and a strong warm front draped across the MN/IA border. If we can get some sun, and if that front wobbles north, it would get rather interesting from MSP metro on south.
This will be an interesting next 10 days.
Is this so called snow a pipe dream?,was watching KARE11 at 6pm and not a word about snow with a high of 50,even Dave Dahl has 48 and rain,why all this nonsense about snow.
ReplyDeleteSnow, baby!! This is what I have been talking about and suggesting for a month or more. It will happen. I can just feel it. Put the icing on the weird winter cake and BRING IT!!!!
ReplyDeleteGFS has backed away for the most part from the snow thought on Mon, and the Euro continues to show it. The 00z runs don't look like much will fall and anything that does fall should melt away quickly. Right now areas north and west of the metro stand the best chance at seeing flakes. Continue to keep an eye on Sunday for a severe threat. SPC has a slight risk in place for southeast MN and most of central, western, and southern WI on Sun...but this threat area could easily be expanded. That will be dependent on the warm front position.
ReplyDeleteDay 2 high risk issued by SPC for only the second time.
ReplyDeleteWhat I find strange is that both the ECMWF and GFS show temps well into the 70s's Friday afternoon, but the 60 dew points and thus the greater instability stop at the MN/IA border. Yet on the other hand the NAM is much more aggressive in destabilizing much of So MN. Strange...Duane and Novak any idea why the difference???
ReplyDeleteOn Sunday, MSP could easily transition from severe T'Storms in the afternoon to a flakes in the air near or after midnight.
ReplyDeleteThis is a classic strong Spring storm that is actually quite common this time of year; we just haven't had much weather to talk about over the last 6 months. We should not be surprised with all the weird things that will happen over MN this weekend. The storm will take a perfect track and will produce a potpourri of precipitation over MN on Sunday, especially overnight. I wouldn't be surprised if temps are in the 30s over the arrowhead & near 80 degrees near LSE on Sunday.
These are the current forecasts of the warm front by the NWS:http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/94f.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/96f.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/98f.gif
ReplyDeletePlymouth Weather Lover.......snow chances dwindling by the hour brother......looks like the next chance of snow,maybe flurries 3rd week of October!...till then enjoy the humid hot sticky high dew point spring and summer(my worst time of year)my fellow snowlover!
ReplyDeleteDang it. But still holding out hope. C'mon Novak--bring the perfect track!
ReplyDeleteReading the afternoon MPX AFD from 04/13 and looking at the ECMWF charts I am getting increasingly nervous about sw MN tomorrow night after sunset...wind fields are down right nasty, with up to 1500 surface based cape setting in.
ReplyDeleteBy midday Sun 1500 cape values could be very close to the metro with dew points reaching 60° while at the same time a very strong upper level jet @90-120 knts will intersect the warm sector, winds at the same time at 500 mb will be around 50knts, the good news is, that the winds will be unidirectional which will minimize the tornado threat, but with diffluence aloft the threat is there for severe winds and large hail. AS always the models do a better job on the large scale features, small micro features a hard for them to see. I honestly think the tornado threat for Sunday, while not strong is certainly there...Please every one stay alert.
Yahoo article:
ReplyDeletehttp://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/forecasters-warn-life-threatening-storms-011855690.html
Good stuff Randy, you are right on. In fact, the 12z model runs look even more impressive for MN, WI tomorrow. MSP will go from severe storms Sunday afternoon to a few flakes in the air by Monday AM. I will be sitting at my laptop all day today and tomorrow monitoring the severe weather outbreak as I'm sure many of you will be doing the same. This weekend is a weather enthusiasts jackpot!
ReplyDeleteThis is one of the most active weather patterns that I've seen in quite some time. It is only fitting that it occurs now after all of the boring weather we've experienced over the last 6 months. Gut feeling is that Mother Nature throws one last surprise at us this coming week. Looking at the Euro, it shows accumulating snow for the MSP metro late Thursday. I believe it may be onto something...or, it could be on something?
pattern for the last half of april definitley looking much more active. probably most active since last june. the models keep on slowing the advancement of the low pressure. which is quite common with such a dynamic, deep low pressure. going to be an interesting 24-48 hours over the upper midwest. storms are already popping over central nebraska and racing north and northeast.
ReplyDelete@novak landing at msp at 8:30 pm Sunday. Should any severe weather clear msp by that time?
ReplyDeleteShould be on the tail end of the event by then with WI getting much of the evening action.
ReplyDeleteSnow later this week. Novak speaks. I speak: bring it! Randy? Duane? Big Daddy? Bemaki?
ReplyDeletePlymouth Weather Lover I say whenever snow is mentioned is a good thing because its another day without heat and humidity.....I could see snow occuring Thursday night,most outlets have rain forecasted at this point but with lows in the mid 30's it wouldn't take much to go over to snow...........but the short term should be of concern to most,severe storms tonight and tommorrow won't be too far from metro........also NWS says the potential for 2-3 inches of snow tommorrow night around Mora area....that's not too far,a shift south and you never know......Welcome to Spring in Minnesota!
ReplyDeleteshort term graphical nowcast issued by NWS:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.crh.noaa.gov/nowcast.php?site=mpx
@ Plymouth Weather Lover: snow is the least of our worries when it comes to weather. Novak is right the 12z model suite has ramped up the severe threat for the Metro from 10am through about 3pm. The 18z run of the NAM is particular worrisome. To those that say don't trust the 18z and 06z runs, I say humbug!!! Wind field data is fed into those models from hundred's of commercial airlines so that the models have some idea what winds at the various altitudes are doing, and they are very helpful when a system is 12-24 hrs out.
ReplyDeletePlease everyone that see's this, pay very close attention to your surroundings on Sunday 4/15. This does not look good.
it looks like the nam has slowed this system down. This has two effects. #1 it increases our chance for severe tomorrow, and # 2 a chance for snow Monday morning, all though the heaviest snow should stay just to the nw of the metro.
ReplyDeleteSunday afternoon looks nasty, pure and simple statement
DeleteThis is all good stuff. Lots happening out there right now and it speaks volumes for our weather tomorrow. The system is coming out of the Rockies slower than expected and that will increase our severe wx opportunities for tomorrow. In fact, the 00z NAM has an EHI index that is off the charts for this time of year in MN tomorrow afternoon.
ReplyDeleteDon't be surprised if the SPC moves the moderate risk area further west into MN for Sunday. Also, I wouldn't be shocked to see a High risk issued somewhere close to home if skies clear during the morning hours. Perhaps a PDS issued by the SPC? Only time will tell.
I whole heartily agree....stay safe everyone.
DeleteJust as we thought, the SPC has put MSP into a MOD risk for tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteThe SPC says there is a 15% chance of seeing a tornado with in 25 miles of any point inside that area. The hatched area means that there is a chance that if a tornado develops it could be a EF-2 or stronger.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif
Actually I would not be surprised if they increased that to 30% with the 1st day one update due at 8am.
This is the hail threat. A wide are of 1" or greater hail stones is possible. The hatched area means that is a 10% chance or greater (don't focus on the 10%, focus on the greater than 10%) that hail could exceed 2" in diameter.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_hail.gif
stay safe eveyone!!! I wish I could say the same for me, I will be at hands of a ill prepared mall security staff, and I can only access company approved web sites. The local NWS office is not a approved web site....trust me I will work to change that.
Less we forget about the other side of this powerful system. 6"+ of heavy wet SNOW will fall near and north of Duluth late this evening and overnight. You gotta love Spring in MN.
ReplyDeleteClouds weakening to the SW has caused SBCAPE values of around 500-1000 J/KG. Convective inhibition has now weakend to around -25 J/KG.
ReplyDeleteStorm development has begun along the cold and warm fronts. In addition, there is now a severe cell in Eastern South Dakota.
More storm development appears likley within the next several hours.
Looking at vis sat could deck breaking up quickly. This was the last question mark regarding our svr wx this afternoon. With really no cap, dew points in the mid 60's, it will be a rough afternoon. Southerly winds picking up, temps already near 70 in the so metro. Novak, Randy what's your take with the sun out and the additional warming?
ReplyDeleteDud,just like the winter that pasted. And sun what sun,has been cloudy and showery.
ReplyDeleteWhats a dud? Hope you don't mean the severe weather. Skies are clearing in S MN. Storms are popping along the cold front. Cap is weakening. Tornado watch issued.
DeleteThe fun is about to start.
Time to get out the popcorn!
ReplyDeleteBe safe:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0553.html
In Falcon Heights, a gust front blew through about 30 minutes before the rain hit. A good 40 MPH wind, I'd say. When the storm proper arrived, we had a short period of heavy rain, but no hail or high winds to speak of.
ReplyDeleteMajor bust on today's forecast. We were in the 15% tornado probability area; huge disappointment. All day long it felt too dry outside for any real weather.
ReplyDeleteAt least my lawn is happy.
Disco I don't know where you live but I was working today at a large north metro mall. We never broke out into full sunshine, but I do see the south metro did. What was interesting is that between 3:30 and 4pm during my lunch break it was obvious to me looking at the clouds that the surface winds were out of the north, but about 5000ft up they were out of the south, so the convergence zone set up over the north metro, while the south metro breaking into full sunshine. While sheer factors were large in the warm sector, the trigger that set off the storms seemed to lag behind the best sheer and instability. Modeling in my opinion missed that.
ReplyDeleteEven during the event, (I got home just before the storms)the radar was showing that storms should be progressing at a forward speed of around 50 miles a hour, that simply didn't happen as they stayed put and dropped large amounts of rain fall over the metro. If the storms IMO would have had faster forward speed they would encountered good tornado conditions around the Red Wing area. But something forced them to stall out before than. What that was I have no clue.
Suffice it to say we lucked out, but we got heavy rain to make a dent in our drought, all in all as it turned out it was a very beneficial storm.
Good analysis here!
DeleteI was driving from Edina to Roseville around 6.30 last evening. My car temp said 70 when I left Edina and it was 55 when I got to Roseville, 20 minutes later. And this was probably 20-25 minutes before it started raining. That gust front was very powerful. I don't know that I've ever seen the temp drop so quickly and so far ahead of the storm.
Only in Minnesota can you drop nearly 40 degrees in 12 hours and go from a tornado watch to snow falling...currently 35 degrees with light snow in Eden Prarire.
ReplyDeleteBTW @Disco80,though I agree with you the forecast was a bust with about 10 minutes of hail where I live in Golden Valley,what I cant put my hands around is that it sounds as if your disappointed that we didnt get any tornados,with the utmost respect and the best way I could put it,thats an idiotic statement even a EF-1 tornado like the one that went thru Golden Valley and up thru North Minneapolis last year can ruin alot of homes and lives,why would anyone be "disappointed",I'm thrilled there was no tornados and in turn no loss of lives or millions of dollars of damage.
"it sounds as if your disappointed that we didnt get any tornados,with the utmost respect and the best way I could put it,thats an idiotic statement"
Deletebig daddy, YOU said that, not me. That is YOUR idiotic statement, not mine.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete@Disco80,I was refering to your "huge disappointment" comment that YOU made,not ME.........exactly what were you disappointed about then?do you care to explain?you also go on to say "it wasn't real weather",exactly how should we take your entire post when you say that,so a temp drop of nearly 40 degrees,strong winds,heavy rain,thunder/lightning,hail and at the end snow.....I ask you is that not real weather to you?or do we need a confirmed tornado touchdown with helicoptors surveying the damage an hour after it blows thru or video from storm chasers having a grand old time?
ReplyDeleteI'm not disappointed at all that there were no tornadoes, but once again, pretty much a weather bust. What does it take for meteorologists around here to get it right????
ReplyDelete@bigdaddy: I don't think Disco80 was disappointed there wasn't a tornado, I think he was referring to the HYPE once again for something that didn't happen. Whe does it stop??
ReplyDeleteNovak: didn't I read it right a few days ago? Didn't you say something about snow for Thursday night and Friday? I haven't heard anything. What is the update? Bring it!
ReplyDeletePretty much all the ingredients were there for something big to happen on Sunday...but it ended up one or two things were more lacking than what the models showed. It wasn't just meteorologists here. Even the big boys at the SPC, NWS, and other major forecasters saw the potential for things to happen here. Hey, it happens. Remember, what a forecast model shows and what nature actually does can end up being completely different. Personally, we should all be relieved that those storms didn't blow up to what they could have. We saw what happened in Kansas and Oklahoma. I love storms as much as anyone, but hate the destruction that comes with them. If every tornado could just drop in a wide open field it would be a weather enthusiasts dream...but we all know that isn't how nature works. Bust or not, people need to listen to forecasts and take them seriously...because it just takes one storm to change the lives of many. Not sure if anyone else saw, but a lot of people in Kansas were thankful the SPC used the wording "life threatening" in their forecasts. Yes, some people still lost their lives and it is terrible when that happens, but I strongly believe many many more could have been if there wasn't such a strong warning in the days leading up to Saturday. Sorry, I'm rambling but I just get pissed off when people constantly rip on forecasters when things don't quite pan out.
ReplyDelete"Sorry, I'm rambling but I just get pissed off when people constantly rip on forecasters when things don't quite pan out."
DeleteHere, here! When all indications point to a big event it's not hype, it's a forecast. It would be nice if the "weather experts" here would realize that.
--Kevin.
Another thing...for those wondering about exactly what happened Sunday (like myself), I opted to shoot the NWS a question about it, and get their analysis on what went wrong.
ReplyDeleteI asked: "Just from a curiosity standpoint, what would you say happened yesterday that caused the storms to not really get going over the moderate risk area? Were shear values too high? Not enough instability? Front was too slow? I always like learning about this stuff, and was just curious about it. Thanks!"
Their reply: "Hi Duane, generally too much shear is not a limiting factor when it comes to the severity of storms. Instability obviously can be and in this case more instability would have helped the balance between updrafts and shear. The timing of the ...forcing was good and it drove the storms across at a great time of day. I guess the orientation of shear vectors relative to that line of convection could have been better. We also didn't even get a ton of lightning or big hail, so the updrafts were relatively small/weak. The divergence associated with the upper jet - or lack there of - was a limiting factor. It's hard to grow updrafts and therefore better utilize the shear if your upper pattern isn't quite favorable to vacate the air at upper levels of the atmosphere. Might have been a few things that lead to the severe failure."
Just thought I would share
Thanks for sharing, Duane. I'd wondered the same thing. Btw, how did you communicate with them? Email? Facebook?
DeleteI posted a message on their Facebook wall. I'm not sure that they will reply every time a message is posted, but in this case they did :)
ReplyDeleteBeware the power of Novak: http://twitpic.com/9b3o2b
ReplyDeleteDuane couldn't agree more with your 10:23am post. I looked at the special observed sounding from the balloon they launched at 1pm from the twin city office, and also from the Green Bay office at 2pm, those soundings seemed to scream moderate chances. I don't think any meteorologist looking at the data would have been acting responsibly if they would have forecast just garden variety T-storms for the metro.
ReplyDeleteAnd thanks for posting the response from MPX. Thinking about it further I think the winds being out of the N/NE over the north metro bringing cooler more stable air into the storms also played a big role.
Novak mentions the snow word in his tweet when he was talking about Thursday. That was 15 minutes ago. Here we go!!
ReplyDeleteMan PWL I never thought there was a bigger snowlover then me but you take the cake by far,yes there is a chance of snow but nothing meaningful or long lasting it will be like Monday morning a few hours of some snow if anything does occur......this should be the last mention of snow for the next 6 months.......here's hoping for an early start to winter 2012 with far more snow....while I'm at it here's to hoping we don't hit 90 at all this summer or 70+ dewpoints(I know wishful thinking,but a man can dream right)
ReplyDeleteI wonder how much snow central and northern MN will see on Saturday. Euro hinting at maybe some minor accumulations. That ridge that is supposed to build in next week and give us some warmer temps is sure taking its sweet time now...hopefully it gets here soon. I'm ready for it to just be summer.
ReplyDeleteSnow?
ReplyDeleteUpon further review, the profiles really don't support it. I spoke before really looking at a sounding...my bad. Warm layer much too deep to change over to snow. Looks more like a rainy Saturday in those areas.
ReplyDeleteaccuweather just went mad... They are now forecasting to twenty-five days out!
ReplyDelete@bemaki,yes Accuweather has gone mad...but that 25 day forecast started around the first week of April.............but can you believe it their 15 day sucked can you imagine how their going to perform on a 25 day
ReplyDeleteVery interesting...........the last paragraph in their discussion this morning talks about "precip event" for Friday and Saturday,interesting how they use the word "precip" and not rain,because in the same paragraph they go on to say highs will struggle to low 40's for those two days,I wonder is snow a potential for this weekend.......what you say Randyinchamplin,Novak,Duane....I know what Plymouth Weather Lover would say,he would say bring it......I say it would be crazy since Saturday is 4/29!
ReplyDeleteSorry I forgot to mention in my last post,info was from NWS discussion this morning.
ReplyDeleteBid Daddy: way to difficult to say at this point. All models do show the block(UKMET,NOGAPS,GFS,GEM amd ECMWF.) Approaching the weekend they all show a trough coming down for BC/AL Canada but almost all of them show the through yielding to the ridge and diving down into the vicinity of the SE US leaving the ridge over us. The exception to that is the ECMWF, it bring the trough through the northern Rockies and actually breaks down and undercuts the ridge. The gem almost gets here but not quite. If it was another model showing the block breaking down I would say the chances were zero, but because it's the Euro I would the chances are slim, say a 10 or 20% chance.
DeleteBut before that time frame, Wednesday has my attention. Thunder looks possible during the early afternoon for the Metro, later for se MN. At this time I don't think severe is probable, but some small hail could be hanging around.
@big daddy,wunderground has a low of 30 Saturday night,cold enough for snow,but there is no mention of it in their forecast or anyones for that matter that I have seen,in fact everyone has highs at 50 or above even the NWS.No Snow!!
ReplyDeletePlease please I need warmer weather on Saturday! I have 20 8 year boys coming to my house for a b-day party... I NEED them outside!!
ReplyDeleteHate to say it @ruth,but Saturday is looking down right cold for a late April day,I can see it being a good 20+ degrees below average......and looky-looky the NWS has gone with rain/snow forecast from Friday night thru Saturday night....Plymouth Weather Lover have you held the NWS hostage until you get your last snow of the season...well it could happen temps are looking chilly,weather.com has a high of only 45 and wunderground has temps below freezing both saturday and sunday nights(27/30 respectially)...as they say stay tuned...but @Bill looks like a new post could be warranted.
ReplyDeleteAs they say in the NFL...."upon further review"..now looks like dry high pressure will win out and push any precip south of us,most likely into Iowa now,so @ruth though the precip(rain/snow)will stay away the temps look chilly still and @PWL NO SNOW SORRY!
ReplyDeleteNoooooooo!!
ReplyDelete