Not that you needed us to tell you, but yes, it was a busted
forecast this weekend. In fact, it could be argued that the inverse of what was
forecast occurred for much of the weekend.
As of Friday night, the consensus of forecasters was that
Saturday would likely bring rain by evening, possibly heavy, and that
Sunday would be a delightful day for dads desiring good weather. This is a tweet that's representative of many others with a similar message.
In general, the complete opposite happened. Saturday morning
provided an unexpected washout (approximately .5 inch of rain fell in St. Paul)
and the afternoon (for the central Twin Cities) provided only fleeting light showers
that were hardly worth noting. By 1 p.m. Sunday, rain had begun to fall in St. Paul,
and the radar suggested that rain would threaten for the rest of the day.
Think the anger over a missed summer forecast isn’t real?
Think again. Here’s what one tweeter had to say:
We applaud Jerrid Sebesta for invoking a little humor into
the situation:
Well said Bill,I was out and about around 1pm shopping and the rains came,right away I thought about this website and how everyone was going to speak of busted forecasts,I believe its rightfully so to complain/bitch/be upset,especially on a day like today(Fathers Day)most people plan outdoor activities,like parties,bbq's,boating and when every local forecast calls for a 'beautiful,dry day' they need to take the criticism when they are way off.I understand and know weather is not a exact science and tough to predict,but come on beautiful and dry to rain falling........I could understand maybe more clouds then expected,but rain is a whole lot different,even the NWS said no rain till after midnight.........thanks for the ruined day forecasters!,its not your fault it rained,but take the responsibility when you can't see it coming.
ReplyDeleteI got a million bucks that says @BGross1996 complains about government spending (i.e., National Weather Service) and will vote for Mittens. Besides, anybody who plans his life around what a TV weatherguy says deserves to be swamped in his boat. That's just my opinion though.
ReplyDeleteDouche.
Nevermind, he's not old enough to vote. Thank god. Check out his other tweets though. WOW.
ReplyDeleteI can understand a person being frustrated because they try to make plans, but seriously people react way too strongly if a forecast busts. Remember, this is someone attempting to predict the future. I didn't pay a ton of attention to Sunday, but I guess I should have. I looked at the HRRR model early Sunday before I hit the road and saw it forming rain and moving it through, but didn't believe it since I saw a dry forecast. I guess it was right after all. These active patterns are so difficult to forecast. I'm sure every forecaster was upset too when the rain moved in. Oh well, we move on now. Keep a close eye on Tues. Could be another active evening.
ReplyDeleteDuane looking at some of the model fields from the HRRR, which I agree has had the hot hand, although timing could be a bit off, I believe that the metro could go into a slight risk area for tonight, with 8pm day 1 update.
Deletewell, wrong this time, but still strong storms seem possible to me
DeleteAfter the rains of tonight,Tuesday and Wednesday and again late Friday/Saturday.........watch out.....heat building out west looks like can be impacting us next week........100's are possible.....yuck!.......make sure the AC is in good shape.
ReplyDeleteHow are you guys feeling about the TC's chances of getting the brunt of tonight's active weather? Or do you agree with the SPC that west/north of here will get hit the hardest, and the TC could get knicked?
ReplyDeleteIt all depends on where the warm front sets up. If the warm front stalls where it is instead of moving north, the metro will take a pretty good hit tonight. Otherwise, the wait will be for the cold front, which is going to take its sweet time moving towards the area. Just waiting on the cap to break, and 700mb temps are cooling to the point where storms should get going in west central MN. The general rule with temps at 700mb is anything 12C or higher is pretty much capped. Those temps are falling to near 10 now out west and that should be the trend. Once storms get going, they will blow up quickly.
ReplyDeletecould you provide a link for that?
DeleteIt looks like the 1958Z Convective Outlook expanded the SLGT risk area to the south a bit.
ReplyDeletethis set up at 10:15pm Tuesday night was well forecast by the UKMET ECMWF, and the Canadian models, as all three kept the Metro at 12°c through the evening. When I woke up this morning and looked at the Rap model, it confirmed that. I left work in the north metro at 7pm. Earlier in the day, people where saying we could see strong storms when the closing crew left at 930pm, I said to them, don't worry, no storms when you are going home.
ReplyDeleteAs I said before, I get all of my "real time" data from the SPC's meso analysis page. I encourage people to look at it, and explore some of the options they have there. It might take a little getting used to, but it comes in handy. Here is the main page...just click on which sector you want to zoom in to. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/ Cap ended up holding strong today, but a heavy rain threat will still exist along the cold front once it finally gets going. After that goes through, say bye bye to the muggies...for now.
ReplyDeleteOvernight low of 79. That is a powerful south wind.
ReplyDeleteAnother busted forecast.........heard anywhere from 2 to as much as 5 inches of rain between Tuesday and Wednesday.......not one drop as of yet and radar trends look like most of action moving north of the cities,I guess mets are like baseball players if you get 3 out of 10 forecasts correct,that means your averaging about .300,not bad,if it was baseball!
ReplyDeleteYea, it does look to be shaping up that way. Perhaps it will change later.
DeleteSome incredible flooding in Duluth. I never thought about it, but when they get nine inches of rain, the whole city pretty much turns into a waterfall because of the hills.
ReplyDeletealmost a perfect set up for flooding up north. strong warm front, and great moisture transport. it did not help that storms failed to form further south last night. allowing the storms north of the warm front to flourish and train over the same areas for hours at a time. looks like a great break as a ridge of high pressure settles in thru the weekend. much cooler, much less humid.
ReplyDeleteVery interesting last 4 or 5 days, the ring of fire has been distinguished. While there are many area's of MN that have seen destructive damage due to flood waters and high winds,
ReplyDeleteand peoples lives have been drastically interrupted, at least to my knowledge no one has lost their life due to this event. It could have so much worse if the cap would have broken late Tuesday afternoon or early evening. Like I said in a earlier post, the system was trying to break through the cap big time in the Blaine area Tuesday night, if just one updraft would have found a weakness in the cap, the whole region would have exploded, and a tornado outbreak would have been possible over a highly populated area. I will leave it with this, the tornado watch that was posted for Tuesday evening was well warranted, glad the cap held in place.
The heat is coming!.........in regards to a post I made earlier,the heat will be building in mid-week,looks like Wednesday and Thursday will be the hottest days with the ridge in full swing,will we hit 100?not sure but mid 90's look plausible at the moment,let's hope this is a short lived heat wave,I for one hate the heat.Bill looks like a new post is warranted,something to the effect of 'hot times in the cities'.
ReplyDelete