The NWS issued a heat advisory today. A portion of the official wording from a statement issued at 10:09 a.m. read as follows:
... Heat advisory remains in effect from 1 PM this afternoon
to 8 PM CDT this evening... temperature... in the mid to upper 90s this
afternoon. The combination of hot temperatures and humidity will make it feel like
100 to 110 degrees.
Let's put the advisory to the test. The official high temperature at MSP was 93, not the middle to upper 90s. The highest heat index reported through 9 p.m. was 98. Not once did the heat index register in the predicted 100-to-110 degree range. One could even argue that the worst of the heat actually occurred from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m., but that would be splitting hairs.
A busted advisory? We think so. It's tempting to say, "Well, it was hot enough, so what's the difference?" But if that's the case, what's the point of issuing an advisory in the first place?
Do you think the concept of issuing a heat advisory has merit? Let us know your thoughts.
Ok so the metro didn't quite hit 100. However they we're at the northern edge of the advisory. Basically every part of the state south of the metro hit 100 with close to 110 in SW MN to Mankato.
ReplyDeleteIf 95% of the advisory area hit what was called for in the advisory it can't be that big of a bust.
True. But my basis for evaluation is the always the single location metro/MSP.
DeleteThe heat over much of southern MN certainly was intense for much of the afternoon and evening. This was a tough forecast for MSP metro because it appeared likely that the intense heat was going to migrate north in the metro. However, I believe the dry and relatively cool start to the day made it difficult to reach advisory criteria later in the PM.
ReplyDeleteDo I feel it was a bust for MSP? Yes, but I still think the advisory was warranted given what the model data was showing. However, MPX NWS could've canceled the advisory for the metro during the PM but neglected to do so.
On a side note, I was shocked when some TV broadcast Mets were telling us to close the windows and turn on the A/C last night. I had my windows wide open and decided to take advantage of the comfortable 60 degree temps and low dew points.
sometimes i wished the nws would wait until the morning of before issuing these heat advisories. same thing happened in ND the day before. yeah there were some higher heat index values, but it was only for one day. we are hearty midwesterners, was it hot? yes, but not oppressively long-lasting heat that folks to our south/west have been dealing with most of the summer so far.
ReplyDeleteI saw this heat building and coming.....last week,so no I'm not surprised with the heat advisory and agree with what CWY2190 and Novak are saying,the majority of the advisory area meet the criteria and as Novak said the guidance called for the same conditions at MSP,93 temp/98 heat index is stinking hot enough,that would be splitting hairs to say the metro didn't warrant an advisory,we need to understand that the reason an advisory is put out is to heighten/alert the public of the pending heat situation.I pose a question to you Bill,if a child and/or pet was forgetten in a car yesterday do you think it would matter to them if the temp hit 96 and the heat index was 101,something tells me it wouldn't matter.One other question for everyone,temps are forecasted to be near or over 90 through next week,so what temperature criteria or days in a row consistue an 'heat wave'.
ReplyDeleteI'd hope that a parent or pet owner wouldn't need to hear about a heat advisory to think about not leaving them in the car. I just think reactions to heat should be common sense.
Delete@Bill,to touch on bigdaddy's comment there have been far worst conditions then this past Wednesday when you hear about irresponsible parents and pet owners leaving their loved ones behind,I believe the point bigdaddy was making is when a heat advisory is issued more media outlets cover the story thus you hear about it most everywhere like the TV,radio,internet,hell even my phone alerted me,the more you hear about it and the more people that talk about it,the more alert and concise you are of the dangers of heat related illnesses,which in the end is a good thing because it saves lives.
DeleteI agree with what NovakWeather said.
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to next week and checking out the predictions, right now I would have to lean towards Paul Douglas and WCCO (although Paul is higher.)
It is based on the Euro forecast. The GFS is much cooler with a large area of 70-75° dew points from MN all the way into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Which is helping hold temps down a little. Ever since it's last major up grade the GFS has been way over doing it when it comes to dews. The euro on the other had shows 65-70 dews with just a few pockets of 75.
At any rate is going to be very uncomfortable for most of us, only those that like Florida heat and dews in MN will be happy.
wow looking at Nam forecast for Monday at 4pm. Nam moss guidance is at 94°, the straight model forecast is for 103°. With a warm front coming in I think the moss guidance is a bit low, but the straight output of the model may be a bit high, could we see a 100° on Monday? At this time I am going for around 98° yikes!!!
ReplyDeleteWell, at least it isn't raining. I went up to my cabin, right on the mississippi, and the water was well past the 100 year floodplain, there was multiple cabins north and south of us that were flooded, and we were within a few feet of having our basement flooded as well.
ReplyDeleteI see that KMSP (fox9) and Kare 11 have jumped on the warm bandwagon, although they may be a little low on their forecast for Wednesday and Thursday.
ReplyDeleteInteresting that the MPX weather story mentions a similar set up to the derecho from July 2005.
ReplyDeleteHeat Advisory up again........I could see it be hoisted everyday this week.
ReplyDeletebig daddy....I believe this one is the real deal, I have been seeing highs this week between 95-100 from the Euro the last 3-4 days, the real question is will we get some rain for our yard's. Those that do, good for you, but here in the metro it could be very spotty.
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ReplyDeleteLooking around the Metro, the heat advisory didn't look too bad.
DeleteArpt - Index
---- -----
KMSP - 98*
KMIC - 99*
KANE - 99*
KSTP - 100*
KFCM - 102*
K21D - 98*
KSGS - 99*
KLVN - 100*
These observations are taken over grassy areas (airports) and the conditions in the metropolitan areas would likely be even warmer than these values represent.
Why not make an attempt at being fair and putting forth some effort before complaining about the forecasts?
--Kevin.
It looks like we're totally back in drought mode. There's been no real rain in the Twin Cities in nearly two weeks. Feast or famine I guess.
ReplyDeleteAgree with Kevin's point above 100% from last weeks advisory issued. In temperature forecasts, a 2F deg variance verifies.
ReplyDeleteThis week the Heat Advisories are definitely warranted and being issued up to 48 hours is a good move -- many things planned and affected by these. The difference between temps/heat indices in the 90s vs 100s is considerable on the human body thus why these are issued. Heat IS the number one weather killer and many times is very sudden especially when HI values exceed 100 and very dramatic when 105-110F +. Add in the metro concrete jungle effect and the values are typically a big higher versus over a grassy-covered tempeature sensor.
DDwx
For what it's worth, according to this list of watch, warning and advisory thresholds, it takes a lower heat index to trigger advisories in Hennepin and Ramsey counties: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/?n=wwadef
ReplyDeleteI think it is because that there are more people in these areas and thus it means that someone will more likley feel ill effects due to the heat.
DeleteYea, but if the concrete holds the heat, that should drive the temp or heat index up alone. So the higher reading that would be expected on the urban heat island should already reflect the higher threshold... if that makes any sense.
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