Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
Monday, February 11, 2013
You Be The Grader
The Minnesota Forecaster is out of town and missed most of yesterday's storm. If you'd like to suggest a grade for various forecasters, feel free. In the meantime, have an enjoyable week.
Winter storm warning was warranted just for the freezing rain/sleet component. Remember the retionale for the Dec 31, 2011 warning was at the discretion of the office, regardless of snow amounts. If anyone was driving this past Sunday hard to argue with the advisories and warnings.
Hmmm....I think totals worked out pretty well. Maybe an inch or two less than original prediction. That makes for an "F"?? Most of us called for heaviest snows North and West of the Cities with over a foot possible. That's what happened....12 - 18" within 100 miles of Alex. Yes the sleet brough amounts a bit down here in the metro but forecasters here do not just focus on MSP. Range here was 3 - 6" ...pretty close if you ask me...but not perfect
Mr. Hammer I beg to differ,Johnathan Yuhas at your station had 5-12 inches for Friday night when you add up his totals on the blog and then Saturday night he had 6-10 inches and these were ALL numbers for the metro,not out state.Hey I appreciate all you mets do to figure out our weather,it is a moving target and not an exact science.....you win some and you lose some,just keep searching for our dumping here in the metro,cuz I need it bad to move some product. Thank You
I have to say that the predictions were pretty much on target for us in the southern metro. Generally, the original call was for us to pick up 1-3 inches. It was then increased to 3 to 6 and 4 to 6, depending on the outlet. We ended up with 3.5 inches. I think the forecasts for the rest of the metro were really lacking. For instance, most forecasts were calling for a range of 5-10+ inches in the northern metro. I have friends in Andover that were excited about getting a nice dumping. They were teasing me a little bit on Saturday night because they were supposed to get a lot more snow than the southern metro. I believe Andover ended up with around 3 inches. Other friends of mine in Forest Lake received only 4 inches. The predictions for western and central MN (South Dakota border northeast through the St. Cloud area) were pretty spot on. Several days prior to the storm the consensus was overwhelming that those areas would get the biggest snows. That is exactly what happened. The issue with the metro area is that the thermal profile was on the razor's edge between mix, rain and all snow. If the storms would travel through southern and central Iowa like they used to, the metro would get some nice heavy snows again. Unfortunately for us snow lovers the Colorado Lows have taken a much farther north trajectory this season than they typically do. There is talk of a possible good-sized storm again next week. The cynic in me immediately wonders how much of a slop mess the metro will receive again!
I give PD an A. I followed all kinds of forecasters throughout last week, including many comments on this blog, and the general sense for everyone except PD was that totals were trending higher and the storm was trending south. Totals were increasing all the way up through the beginning of the storm, people were talking "all snow for the metro," but PD stuck to his forecast of a few slushy inches for the immediate metro. Sven @ Kare also did a decent job of keeping the metro in advisory like conditions with amounts down. I'm in Mpls and only got 2.2 officially, with some of it even melting during the storm (super hard to clear off the sidewalk, by the way).
With all of this said, however, I don't think the other mets failed by any means. Just didn't get as high of grades as PD in my opinion. Overall, a fun storm to predict and watch play out!
Know one should be getting an "F". We all need to look at the bigger picture and not just snowfall totals. Believe me, I get disappointed each time a forecast is a "bust", whether it be in the spring/summer or winter.
Everyone was in agreement that a large storm was on it's way. Everyone was in agreement that it was moisture laden. Everyone was in agreement as far as timing and duration, Everyone was in agreement that it was large. The ONLY thing where there was any variablity was with snow totals. The last couple winters we have been plagued with Thermal Profiles,Dynamic Cooling, Negative or Positive Oscillations, etc...stuff we really never had to think about in years past. Think about all the "new" variables, newly discoved, that now need to be "plugged" in to modeling algorhyms (sp?).
I think we need to give these guys a break whether it's RandyinChamplin, Novak, Mr. Hammer, PD, DD etc.
I agree that in the big picture most did ok... But it was also a pretty big whiff on some of the metro totals. When double digit numbers start getting thrown around on the high end the 2-3 that the majority of the metro got is a big miss... Then all too often rather than explain how/why the metro forecast busted we either hear about the forecast not being solely about the metro or we start talking about anything within an hour of either downtown being 'metro'. People don't want to hear spin or how forecasters thought they were 'close'... I think most would rather hear what changed, why didn't it work out like you thought?
The interesting thing is that almost everybody had it initially as slop and the metro being right on the rain/snow line a week out when it first popped up.
I agree with you Ryan. I'd like to hear more about the why behind what happened that was different than forecast. I also think sometimes there's an honest disconnect between forecaster's perception of their forecasts and user's perception of their forecasts. Paul Huttner shares the same thinking as Patrick regarding the storm, and they're both stand up guys. So that tells me there's a gulf in there somewhere. If we lived in an east coast metro area where things are not nearly as regional-centric as here, I believe there'd be more simplicity in the forecast assessment. I think this "forecaster/viewer gulf" would make for an interesting topic for discussion at another time.
Regarding last weekends storm, i think the gfs did better than the euro with qpf totals and precip types...the euro basically had an all snow event for most of central/western MN, that didn't pan out...the euro was also colder & further south with storm track and that was bogus too and maybe thats why many mets were forecasting higher snow totals.
@Randyinchamplain or Duane.........does tommorrow nights clipper look a little frisky to you?more then the 1" that everyone is forecasting,more like 2or 3 inches around the metro.Thoughts?
It's a decent little clipper on the way and 1 to 3 seems reasonable for this one. Higher amounts should be north and east metro, or pretty much from the I-94 corridor and north. There shouldn't be any concerns about mixing from this one except in far southern WI. Timing wise, probably sometime after 6pm with the initial area of snow moving through the metro, then it may let up a bit before picking up again overnight. Should be light and fluffy, and pretty easy to clear. We know that it doesn't take much for people to drive like idiots so take it easy out there if you have to go out and about Wednesday night.
Thanks Duane...........question for all,do you guys read the aviation updates at the NWS website,usually 4 times a day in-between the discussions?.......to me their like a nowcast or maybe a short term forecast,anyway reading the one from this morning,they pinpoint the MSP snowfall for later today at 2" and even mention a growing chance of. more snow coming in on Thursday from a second 'wave',I have a funny suscipion these little clippers/waves will lay down more snow then the much advertised storm that passed thru this pass weekend,yet its not getting much traction here or any weather outlets(except maybe from the NWS,who are hinting at more snow then any outlet). Speaking of this weekend and grades,I think its pretty simple,the point of this blog is the weather at one location and one location only,MSP,so you call for a range of a snowfall,whatever that is(1-3,2-4,3-6,4-8,6-12)so if the snowfall falls within the range then you nailed,if its just under or just over then you get a lesser grade and if you miss by 3 or more then its a 'F'..........so to me PD gets the only 'A',most everyone else gets a 'C'.....the 'F' goes to Randy Hill and KSTP,because their low-end number was a miss by 3 inches.......but I will continue to read what KSTP has got to say because if we get snow or near misses it will always interest me,btw,Hammer and Dahl keep mentioning an active week next ,I say bring it,right PWL?
Yes I do read the aviation updates. Actually I look forward to them more than the overall discussion because I find them more accurate and specific. Very good point @big daddy.
That great NWS just updated their weather for today,and your not going to believe this,but it shouldn't come as any surprise,they call for RAIN mixing with the snow,can you say slop again!
Yep, you're right!! What the.....??!!! And to think that just last night I was reading somewhere (I don't recall which outlet it was) that at least we won't have to worry about any mix for today, that it will definitely be all snow. LOL We can't win for losing here in the metro. It reminds me of Philly, D.C., NYC in that they hardly ever get just snow. It is almost always a mix changing to rain or just plain rain. Is this now the Twin Cities winter weather we can come to expect as a result of global warming? If so, I'm heading to higher ground and higher latitudes. If I wanted to live in D.C. or NYC, I would move to D.C. or NYC.
I guess the models decided to warm the lower profile just enough to make that threat possible. If it does mix, it will be at the very start of things, and should last that long or come down that heavily. The majority should still be snow, and accumulations shouldn't be majorly influenced by it. I would even say that maybe the snow will start an hour or two later now...closer to 7 or 8pm.
For those of us who like to look at the long range, our next POTENTIAL system of interest is a little more than a week away. We'll watch it over the next week to see what it does. We're due for a good non-rain event, aren't we? :)
I have an updated blog post on what went right/wrong with my forecast for last Sunday's storm. Although, I think the majority of you have already made up your mind that I failed. Maybe this site needs to be renamed Minneapolis or Twin Cities forecaster instead of Minnesota forecaster!
Tonight's clipper should start out as a few sprinkles/light rain since it's currently near 40 outside. This will quickly cool everything and change it to snow though. 1-2" is possible across the metro, but I think the majority will stay in the 1" range, due to a lack of moisture and temps so close to freezing.
Next week will be interesting, especially the possible Thu-Fri storm that Duane mentioned above. Most of the model runs have kept everything to the south, but it definitely worth watching.
Why is it so difficult to get snow here in the metro anymore? Like a poster from earlier today said, it's as though we are living in the Mid-Atlantic where it seems that the odds are almost always in favor of precipitation that is NOT snow! Snow is something that sometimes happens there. It just seems that that is now what the situation has become for the TC metro area.
The long term average snowfall to date is slightly above 30 inches. We are sitting at 29.4. So, I do not realy see any statistical evidence to back this notion that it is not snowing as it used to be. And by the way, it is snowing outside.
@Randy Hill Great analysis on your blog! The only question I would have is why the evening event featured more rain than was expected. (It should be noted that I left town in the middle of the day and I'm just going on reports of what happened later.) That the afternoon/evening precip would be snow seemed a surety among all forecasters.
As for location for grading/evaluation, etc., I've always been unabashed about feeling "metro centric." I do this for two reasons: 1) the majority of us do live in the metro, and 2) there has to be a single location for purposes of analysis. I've gathered that most forecasters think of the metro as surprisingly side... sometimes it seems they go with a 40-mile radius from the central urban core.
Concerning the last storm. I believe I put out one of my worst forecast ever with 6" at MSP and 8-12 in the NW metro. I honestly thought that St Cloud would see close to a foot of snow, but it seems like they got the NW metro snow's of around 7-8". I did see a report from someone in Red Wing where he recorded a low pressure of 987mb, giving credence to Randy Hills idea that the low passed over them. My personal score card on this one show's a F.
For those that visit this site often, you may have read that I have been calling for a more active pattern developing from Feb 15th thru March 15th. It looks like it's on track. 1st of all there is weak storm system that should impact the the southern Ohio Valley during 18th-19th time frame, that won't of course affect us. But what it will do as it passes off to the NE is allow a SE ridge to quickly set up. I think this SE ridge could be a predominant feature during the next 30 days, although it could flatten for a 2 day period or so it should redevelop rather quickly.
Going back to the 18-19th system, that should set the stage for the next storm that is progged for around the 21st-22nd. It's way to early to tell if it will impact MSP, but in the long run I don't think it matters,(although some of the guidance suggests it will.) What I think it will do however is lay a good solid snow pack down from IA to Madison and possibly the entire OH Valley. What does that mean for us? Any southerly winds that should develop will not necessarily bring warm temps up here as those winds will cool as it passes over the snow pack. So any storms that should track towards us will not have temp issue from the surface to about 925mb. All in all, I still see us impacted by a strong storm if not two of them between now and March 15th.
21st/22nd is starting to look interesting. Looks like a classic early March type storm. Even the SPC is looking at it for what could be a really good looking setup for severe weather.
LATER IN THE WEEK A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT MAY UNFOLD FROM EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS 100KT+ MID LEVEL SPEED MAX APPROACHES WHAT SHOULD BE A MORE MOIST/BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT. IF UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS MANAGE TO ADVANCE SUBSTANTIALLY INLAND AN ORGANIZED SEVERE SCENARIO MAY UNFOLD DURING
I knew the clipper last night was going to be abit frisky.........a solid 3 inches in golden valley,exactly what I got on Sunday,go figure.....hyped storm 3 inches,no hype storm same 3 inches..........goes to show you storms work in funny ways,you think you may have it figures out and then in the last moment a curveball,heavy band setup right over western metro last night.goes to show you NWS headlines aren't always the bible,not this year anyway.
Is it me or are the big storms looking good for major snowstorms in the metro a week out and then over time drift north or drift south. Next weeks storm going south already!
Take a look at my post from above...I was strongly hinting at the fact that this could go south, I just don't believe it's our time yet, it may have to wait until March when the southern jet lifts far enough north. Keep in mind this is not anywhere near like last year, southern Canada is full of snow, I do expect some type of phasing system to effect us.. any way here is what I posted..
" It's way to early to tell if it will impact MSP, but in the long run I don't think it matters,(although some of the guidance suggests it will.) What I think it will do however is lay a good solid snow pack down from IA to Madison and possibly the entire OH Valley."
It now looks like it adds northern KS and all of NE. We just have to wait our turn. The last storm I think is a anomaly to the over all pattern that I see developing. 1st big storm hits the NE US, the 18-19th storm while not strong impacts the eastern OH valley, and the storm for the 21st-22nd affects almost all of our area to the south. That sets a good snow pack to our south. The pattern is there, I still think it will happen, the question is when???
I believe the euro & ggem are too cold & too far south with the cold air next week & thus their further south storm track. Right now, i think Nebraska into Iowa, n Illinois have the best shot of the heaviest snow.
That still has no bearing on MSP,but I'll be sure to contact some folks down there and tell them snow is coming. Big snowfalls are not a friend of MSP,I guess we just need to enjoy the now and again clippers.
Maybe not but MSP is one of the few spots that's had a big snowfall this season...Euro hasn't been anyone's friend as far as consistency and living up to it's, so called "king status"
Such a good point! I think I'll check back with this site on the 20th to see what folks are predicting!
Here's a mashup of what I'd be missing in the next week: "Bring it!" "Snow dance!" "It's shifted." "Minnesota sucks now." "Damn mets." "It's back!" "BRING IT!" "It shifted." "Damn mets." "Read my blog." "MSP is in the bullse...wait, it shifted." "1" of slop." "DAMN METS."
And EVERY forecast on every news outlet between now and next Thursday will contain the words, "the track still is uncertain so be sure to check back for updates."
Besides the 7 inch snowfall in late December down here in Rochester we haven't really had much (exception from Clipper mania a few weeks back where it totaled from 6-8 inches). From the last few storms it's been mainly rain and/or ice. Looking at a snow depth/cover map central Minnesota looks darn sweet. Yet with all that, we've already passed last years snowfall totals.
Excellent,lets hope he continues that thinking,because if he was saying something along the lines of what he usually says-"I love the setup next week" our chances of heavy snow fade,if he pays no attention to it,watch out here comes Winter Storm Novak(man the weather channel should have used Novak),if this storm develops what name are we up to.
Also beware Mr. Conservative himself,PD,is liking our chances of a storm next week. WHAT! PD LIKES A STORM AND NOVAK DOESN'T WHAT HAS OUR WORLD COME TO.
I have not left a comment in a while, so I think I would like to chip in here. In response to the post this is how I will grade the forecasters:
Paul Douglas: A ( Even I agree that he deserves it) Weather Channel: A ( Kind of an unsung hero KARE: A- (they did a good job, but did not really latch on until late.) MPR: B (never were really good at keeping consistent updates NWS: B (now, people might criticize this grade, but you need to remember, these guys have the added pressure of issuing weather produts, and the added criticism that comes with it. We had a discussion earlier about this, and since then, I have been more lenient with them. But still, they could have done a better job. KMSP: C (middle of the pack prediction, middle of the pack grade.) WCCO: D+ ( Seemed a little less than average, fell for the models.) KSTP F (Wishful thinking. Better luck next time)
As for the storm: WAY WAY far out. Will wait till it is closer. I think the comments above cover it pretty well.
Increased hopes? Euro and GFS have moved a little further north now tracking the low near the Quad Cities. GFS puts out about 6 to 7 for the Twin Cities with the Euro showing 8 to 10 inches on the 12z runs.
I think someone is starting to get a little tinkle in his pants.......if PWL read the NWS area discusion for this evening he would see their hinting at 8-12+ for Thursday/Friday with 80% chances already.......this should be interesting,let's get a good dumping were overdue!
As everyone mentions further below, I can't recall an 80% chance of snow used this far out. Or at least having it used within the forecast wording. Which is making me nervous (that it won't happen). Should be an interesting next few days.
This system is getting very interesting indeed. Looking at the ECMWF forecast sounding for Thursday evening at midnight, I"m seeing a dendritic growth zone that is a outstanding 300mb deep!!! Having said that there is a lot of wind in that zone that will act to tear up those fragile crystal formations, so accumulations should be somewhat stunted. Yet on the flip slide if I do a hand calculation based on QPF amounts and the temp profile at 850mb and at the surface for MSP I come up with 14-17". The GFS is showing around 9-12".
THIS IS NOT A FORECAST FOR SNOW AMOUNTS.....it is simply a attempt to raise the red flag if you have travel plans from Thursday through Friday, as travel could become difficult to say the least.
As many of you know I have been calling for a major snowfall for MSP between Feb 15th and March 15th. This one, if it should verify will be somewhat earlier than I thought, so one more major one could be in the cards.
I guess in some places they are expecting another foot where they have already seen two to three feet of snow from that monster earlier. Luckly they got plenty of melting between the previous storm and now. But still, they have got to be thinking "not again". Crazy.
Looking ahead: I think we may very well get a good thrashing of snow from this upcoming system. Both Paul Douglas and the NWS have been on the dot for most of this winter (exept for the 8-9 december snow for PD and the recent one for NWS) . Both of them are liking the chances of a good snowstorm. I am sure that if PD (with his thirty years of experience as a meteorologist) must have somthing up his sleeve if he really is this optomisitc. To tell you the truth, I am starting to respect the guy. I know that he is pessimistic, but being a meteorologist for that long and watching so many snowtors disappear before his eyes probably does that to anyone who has been working in that area for that long.
Anyway... Keeping my fingers crossed and hoping for the best.
Time for a new post I think Bill. This is some crazy confidence for being six days out.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...INCLUDING WITH TIMING AND INTENSITY. THEREFORE... RAISED POPS INTO THE DEFINITE CATEGORY WHICH IS QUITE RARE AT THIS RANGE BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE SUPPORTS IT NONETHELESS. MAKING SNOWFALL PREDICTIONS AT THIS RANGE IS RARE AS WELL...BUT QPF ON ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE ODDBALL 12Z CANADIAN ARE AT LEAST 0.6 INCHES AND SOME APPROACH OR EXCEED 1 INCH. WITH A 15:1 RATIO AS A ROUGH GUESS...IT IS CONCEIVABLE MUCH OR ALL OF THE CWA COULD SEE 8 TO 12+ INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN MOST CONSISTENT IN PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
I have to say I love this forum with great discussions and musings about our local weather and the forecasters that try to figure it all out. There is some great insight here despie the grade we got on the last storm. Yes we over forecasted snow amounts in the metro as the thermal profiles did not go as planned. I put too much snow stock in the Euro when nowcasting should have our tool. I really find this next storm intersting but also respect what Novak has to say as always. PD is as smart as it gets but there is a bent with his thoughts that we all know about. Cant ignore his tenure nor Dahls as well. This upper low is coming at us and with an artic high to our NE so an awesome overrunning event will get going Thursday. A block is also setting up to our North which will slow this low down prelonging the light snow with an invereted surface trough. All in all this has the potential of being a great snow maker but a shift south can not be ignored if high gets too strong. I say bring it.
This is the most sure I've seen NWS be about a storm this far out since the one that dropped well over a foot in December 2010. I can't remember the last time they gave an 80% chance of precipitation six days out, but that's what they're doing right now for next Thursday.
Not sure when your returning from your vacation Bill,but as CWY2190 alluded to a new post would be welcome for this one,if for nothing else the high confidence the NWS is exhibiting........welcome back,no rest for the weary! @Randyinchamplain keep talking the major storm angle its working.
Before really getting excited for this system forecast to come in, I'm going to give it more time and see how things hold as we really get closer to Thursday and how things react to a low that, while still a good strength, is in the process of weakening. If anyone is curious, that swirl that is NW of the Aleutian Islands (as of 2am Sun morn) is our system of interest. So, as you can tell, it has a long path to go. Overall model agreement has been outstanding (which honestly is shocking). The Canadian model is the odd ball out in this one, but is slowly catching up. Blocking is there, pattern is there, Gulf is there, and yes, even cold air is there (so far) ha ha! I am liking our chances more and more with each passing day, but know how quickly things can shift.
With so many near misses this year, I am remaining cautiously pessimistic about Thursday's potential storm. The consistency of the models is promising, and the gulf moisture train will definitely be in place. One thing keeping me from jumping on board quite yet is the large ridge developing over Manitoba, with a high of 1040+mb. This could keep the larger swath of 8+inches near the MN/IA/SD border. But the 00Z GFS is painting over .5" QPF over a large area, so a decent plowable storm is very likely, but nothing we aren't used to here. Once the storm reaches Cali. by Monday we will be able to hone more specific accumulations.
Note: These are only straight model outputs that I'm posting for comparison and to watch for track changes/consistency.
0z Euro - Twin Cities in the 0.6 to 0.7" total precip range. Surface low tracks over the Twin Cities which is much further north then the IA/MO border a few days ago.
0z GFS - Twin Cities is in the 0.8 to 0.9" total precip range. Surface low tracks near Winona.
6z GFS - Twin Cities is in the 0.8 to 0.9" total precip range. Surface low tracks from Rochester towards Lake City.
Seriously our storm of interest will be called "Q",Plato was named last night for the new Northeast storm,that's ridicilious weather channel,that's as creative as you can be with q,Qbert would have been better for all those Atari users out there,but seriously these name calling is stupid.
I'm sure this storm will find a way to go too far north and give us slop or too far south to give us flurries,remember storms always look good for the metro intially and then it goes sideways from there,you guys are getting too excited too early.
The reason why confidence is so hsig in this storm is because of the amazing model corralation and the nature of this type of storm. You see, this is a classic "conveyor belt" system. In other words, this thing is drawing moisture directly from the gulf and feeding it to us. The high pressure sticks around long enough so there is not enough time to warm things up to result in a slopfest. As for going too far south, the same high pressure that will keep things cool helps pull this system northward. So unless the high pressure is destroyed or mutilated beyond recognitition, then this storm is likley to hit us.
What's more, the nature of this style of storm results in such a wide swath of snowfall that it is not that difficult for forecasters to mention amounts this early. Even Paul Douglas is saying that this system will probably result in a plowable snow event.
One storm at a time would be nice,but Dahl,Accuweather and Weather.com are all over another snowstorm one week out(Sunday/Monday)and NWS has 30% of snow,good problem to have,fun week coming up starting with a minor clipper system tommorrow(which could surprise some with 1-3 inches)
KARE 11 Sunday night forecast by Jerrid Sebesta says the Thursday storm is 50/50 for our area for snow. For WCCO, Lauren Casey mentioned significant snowfall is appearing more likely for Southern MN from Thu evening into Friday. Both of them calling for b/w 0 and up to 1" for the metro for Monday.
Just watched Dave Dahl and he didn't sound very convincing when he started talking about snow chances when the 7-day forecast came up on the screen,he stated "the possibility of slightly heavier snows Thursday and Friday" and "a tricky forecast for the weekend",his graphic had snow from Thursday thru Sunday,which is encouraging,its just I'm abit surprised he's not so gong-ho with the late week snow,like the NWS is.Its just an observation is all.
Less QPF coming in for Thursday/ Friday system?dry tongue into MSP? PD in tonights blog backing off somewhat for a large snowstorm,saying totals will be in the lower range but still plowable(big winner will be Nebraska/Iowa),but he does dive into the Sunday/Monday(1 week out)storm saying that precip will be substanial,but also hints at the possibility of slop with warm air getting wrapped into the system. Time will tell......should be an interesting week to 10 days!
The first storm is really tricky. Thursday morning the upper level jet is still somewhat phased on both the Euro and the GFS, by noon as the snow shield approaches MN all thinks look good. However at about that time the GFS quickly decouples it, and it forces the lower level jet quickly to south and east near the southern gulf coast states. This acts to cut off most of the moisture flow. The Euro is about 6-8 hours later with this feature, so obviously the Euro has more moisture.
Storm 2 is on both maps and looks to be mixed bag, but it is very impressive. After that the GFS gets pretty quiet. However at the end of the Euro run storm number 3 looks to be locked and loaded over the TX/OK panhandle one again. For a weather enthusiast it really doesn't get much better than this.
@Randyinchamplain your major snowstorm that you have been calling looks best with Storm 2 as long as no mix/slop gets sucked into MSP,but with temps 30-32 it will be a close call!
Problem seems to be the storm is peaking in strength over Nebraska and Kansas and then weakening as it moves NE towards high pressure. Looks like some people in KS/NE/SD/IA are going to be in for a busy Thursday.
Three storms being talked about at once? That is awesome! I don't like inaccuweather with the rest of you, but they have a snowy pattern painted. Love just looking at it. Storm 1 should be fun but just light - moderate snow at times. If we get 6+ inches, it would be over a longer period. Forcing and banding will be limited due to weakening. Hope I am wrong with the weakening. Storm 2 looks the most fun. It has the most power and most moisture potential. Being on the edge of slop potential men's being on the edge of the heavy snow potential. Storm 3 is too far out but active weather = sleepless anticipating nights and days. Bring them!!!!!
I'm feeling like I should just join the "anonymous" camp in here, and just hang up this winter and move on to summer. Unless the GFS is just being dumb which is really possible, chances look less and less and less for some decent snow with this upcoming system. It weakens too quickly (which I was worried about to begin with). Maybe it is just the American models not being able to figure anything out until the last minute...or maybe the Euro is too bullish. Quite frankly I'm more interested in the system after this one at this point in time. Models are pretty spread out with the track, but I'm sure a track from Iowa into Minnesota will happen and we will be stuck in the mixing again. Finally an active pattern shows up...and the first system splits north and south and comes together off to the east. The second looks perfect until it gets into MN and fizzles. The third, probably gonna be too warm. Sorry, I realize that third one will fluctuate a lot and move around a lot and may even just go away but I'm tired of winter now and always having something dumb happen to prevent a few good storms from impacting the area.
@Duane, Amen! I could not agree with you more. Let's face it folks, this is not the Metro's winter. Northern & western MN have been cleaning up in the cold and snow department this season. For example, as of this morning western & northern MN are reporting 20-40 inches of snow on the ground. The Metro is reporting 4-8 inches. As for cold, as of February 17th Duluth has officially recorded 23 nights below zero and International Falls has officially recorded 46 nights below zero!! The Metro has officially recorded only 8 nights below zero. I know that it's always colder up north, but most of the cold fronts this season seemed to have lost a lot of umpf once they reached the Metro. The storms have favored western & northern MN, while the Metro has either missed out completely or has endured slopfests. Yesterday's chatter about a possibly big snowstorm later this week for the Metro has now been replaced with a mention of possibly a couple of inches instead. To add insult to injury, the discussion about the subsequent storm is...wait for it...you guessed it, ANOTHER slopfest! Now where have we seen that movie before?!! As much as I love winter I am ready to cut my losses and turn my attention to thoughts of warm and sunny May days. Let's try this winter thing again next season, ladies and gentlemen.
As long as I can't see grass, I'm loving this winter. And I don't see the 8" in my backyard melting any time soon. Sure we could have more, but no complaints as snow cover looks to stick around at least through the end of the month.
I agree with the comments of Duane and of Anonymous from 11:45 a.m. today. The Metro has been on the razor's edge all season of having a really good winter. As a winter fan and bonafide snow junkie I of course wish it had been colder and that we had more snow on the ground and more frequent snowfalls and snowstorms. However, at least the weather has been cold and "snowy" enough to give the Metro a continuous snow cover since early December. Heck, where I grew up they are lucky to get a snow cover for 2 consecutive days let alone 3 consecutive months! I am holding out hope that the next few systems bring the Metro at least a few inches of snow each. If they don't, then they don't. That will be rather par for the course for this season. I just hope we don't get that mix mess again. At any rate, Spring will be here before we know it.
Easy one.
ReplyDeletePaul Douglas is the big winner.
All others, including the NWS and their ridicolous WSW, busted pretty badly. An F to all of them.
Winter storm warning was warranted just for the freezing rain/sleet component. Remember the retionale for the Dec 31, 2011 warning was at the discretion of the office, regardless of snow amounts. If anyone was driving this past Sunday hard to argue with the advisories and warnings.
DeleteHmmm....I think totals worked out pretty well. Maybe an inch or two less than original prediction. That makes for an "F"?? Most of us called for heaviest snows North and West of the Cities with over a foot possible. That's what happened....12 - 18" within 100 miles of Alex. Yes the sleet brough amounts a bit down here in the metro but forecasters here do not just focus on MSP. Range here was 3 - 6" ...pretty close if you ask me...but not perfect
ReplyDeleteMr. Hammer I beg to differ,Johnathan Yuhas at your station had 5-12 inches for Friday night when you add up his totals on the blog and then Saturday night he had 6-10 inches and these were ALL numbers for the metro,not out state.Hey I appreciate all you mets do to figure out our weather,it is a moving target and not an exact science.....you win some and you lose some,just keep searching for our dumping here in the metro,cuz I need it bad to move some product. Thank You
DeleteI have to say that the predictions were pretty much on target for us in the southern metro. Generally, the original call was for us to pick up 1-3 inches. It was then increased to 3 to 6 and 4 to 6, depending on the outlet. We ended up with 3.5 inches. I think the forecasts for the rest of the metro were really lacking. For instance, most forecasts were calling for a range of 5-10+ inches in the northern metro. I have friends in Andover that were excited about getting a nice dumping. They were teasing me a little bit on Saturday night because they were supposed to get a lot more snow than the southern metro. I believe Andover ended up with around 3 inches. Other friends of mine in Forest Lake received only 4 inches. The predictions for western and central MN (South Dakota border northeast through the St. Cloud area) were pretty spot on. Several days prior to the storm the consensus was overwhelming that those areas would get the biggest snows. That is exactly what happened. The issue with the metro area is that the thermal profile was on the razor's edge between mix, rain and all snow. If the storms would travel through southern and central Iowa like they used to, the metro would get some nice heavy snows again. Unfortunately for us snow lovers the Colorado Lows have taken a much farther north trajectory this season than they typically do. There is talk of a possible good-sized storm again next week. The cynic in me immediately wonders how much of a slop mess the metro will receive again!
ReplyDeleteI give PD an A. I followed all kinds of forecasters throughout last week, including many comments on this blog, and the general sense for everyone except PD was that totals were trending higher and the storm was trending south. Totals were increasing all the way up through the beginning of the storm, people were talking "all snow for the metro," but PD stuck to his forecast of a few slushy inches for the immediate metro. Sven @ Kare also did a decent job of keeping the metro in advisory like conditions with amounts down. I'm in Mpls and only got 2.2 officially, with some of it even melting during the storm (super hard to clear off the sidewalk, by the way).
ReplyDeleteWith all of this said, however, I don't think the other mets failed by any means. Just didn't get as high of grades as PD in my opinion. Overall, a fun storm to predict and watch play out!
Know one should be getting an "F". We all need to look at the bigger picture and not just snowfall totals. Believe me, I get disappointed each time a forecast is a "bust", whether it be in the spring/summer or winter.
ReplyDeleteEveryone was in agreement that a large storm was on it's way. Everyone was in agreement that it was moisture laden. Everyone was in agreement as far as timing and duration, Everyone was in agreement that it was large. The ONLY thing where there was any variablity was with snow totals. The last couple winters we have been plagued with Thermal Profiles,Dynamic Cooling, Negative or Positive Oscillations, etc...stuff we really never had to think about in years past. Think about all the "new" variables, newly discoved, that now need to be "plugged" in to modeling algorhyms (sp?).
I think we need to give these guys a break whether it's RandyinChamplin, Novak, Mr. Hammer, PD, DD etc.
I agree that in the big picture most did ok... But it was also a pretty big whiff on some of the metro totals. When double digit numbers start getting thrown around on the high end the 2-3 that the majority of the metro got is a big miss... Then all too often rather than explain how/why the metro forecast busted we either hear about the forecast not being solely about the metro or we start talking about anything within an hour of either downtown being 'metro'. People don't want to hear spin or how forecasters thought they were 'close'... I think most would rather hear what changed, why didn't it work out like you thought?
DeleteThe interesting thing is that almost everybody had it initially as slop and the metro being right on the rain/snow line a week out when it first popped up.
Good point, Ryan. They should have stuck with their first impression a week out from the event. They would have all been right on the money then.
DeleteI agree with you Ryan. I'd like to hear more about the why behind what happened that was different than forecast. I also think sometimes there's an honest disconnect between forecaster's perception of their forecasts and user's perception of their forecasts. Paul Huttner shares the same thinking as Patrick regarding the storm, and they're both stand up guys. So that tells me there's a gulf in there somewhere. If we lived in an east coast metro area where things are not nearly as regional-centric as here, I believe there'd be more simplicity in the forecast assessment. I think this "forecaster/viewer gulf" would make for an interesting topic for discussion at another time.
DeleteRegarding last weekends storm, i think the gfs did better than the euro with qpf totals and precip types...the euro basically had an all snow event for most of central/western MN, that didn't pan out...the euro was also colder & further south with storm track and that was bogus too and maybe thats why many mets were forecasting higher snow totals.
DeleteWell, this past weekend's storm totals are already melting off my roof and driveway, so let's let PD enjoy his trophy for another minute.
ReplyDeleteOK, so is there anything excited in the Euro, NAM, GFS, ect regarging next week's storm?!
Better get out there and enjoy the nice day. Appears to be the nicest day for several weeks.
ReplyDelete@Randyinchamplain or Duane.........does tommorrow nights clipper look a little frisky to you?more then the 1" that everyone is forecasting,more like 2or 3 inches around the metro.Thoughts?
ReplyDeleteIt's a decent little clipper on the way and 1 to 3 seems reasonable for this one. Higher amounts should be north and east metro, or pretty much from the I-94 corridor and north. There shouldn't be any concerns about mixing from this one except in far southern WI. Timing wise, probably sometime after 6pm with the initial area of snow moving through the metro, then it may let up a bit before picking up again overnight. Should be light and fluffy, and pretty easy to clear. We know that it doesn't take much for people to drive like idiots so take it easy out there if you have to go out and about Wednesday night.
ReplyDeleteThanks Duane...........question for all,do you guys read the aviation updates at the NWS website,usually 4 times a day in-between the discussions?.......to me their like a nowcast or maybe a short term forecast,anyway reading the one from this morning,they pinpoint the MSP snowfall for later today at 2" and even mention a growing chance of. more snow coming in on Thursday from a second 'wave',I have a funny suscipion these little clippers/waves will lay down more snow then the much advertised storm that passed thru this pass weekend,yet its not getting much traction here or any weather outlets(except maybe from the NWS,who are hinting at more snow then any outlet).
DeleteSpeaking of this weekend and grades,I think its pretty simple,the point of this blog is the weather at one location and one location only,MSP,so you call for a range of a snowfall,whatever that is(1-3,2-4,3-6,4-8,6-12)so if the snowfall falls within the range then you nailed,if its just under or just over then you get a lesser grade and if you miss by 3 or more then its a 'F'..........so to me PD gets the only 'A',most everyone else gets a 'C'.....the 'F' goes to Randy Hill and KSTP,because their low-end number was a miss by 3 inches.......but I will continue to read what KSTP has got to say because if we get snow or near misses it will always interest me,btw,Hammer and Dahl keep mentioning an active week next ,I say bring it,right PWL?
@big daddy, I too always read the aviation discussions. I typically find them to be more accurate than the general public forecasts.
DeleteYes I do read the aviation updates. Actually I look forward to them more than the overall discussion because I find them more accurate and specific.
ReplyDeleteVery good point @big daddy.
That great NWS just updated their weather for today,and your not going to believe this,but it shouldn't come as any surprise,they call for RAIN mixing with the snow,can you say slop again!
ReplyDeleteYep, you're right!! What the.....??!!! And to think that just last night I was reading somewhere (I don't recall which outlet it was) that at least we won't have to worry about any mix for today, that it will definitely be all snow. LOL We can't win for losing here in the metro. It reminds me of Philly, D.C., NYC in that they hardly ever get just snow. It is almost always a mix changing to rain or just plain rain. Is this now the Twin Cities winter weather we can come to expect as a result of global warming? If so, I'm heading to higher ground and higher latitudes. If I wanted to live in D.C. or NYC, I would move to D.C. or NYC.
DeleteI guess the models decided to warm the lower profile just enough to make that threat possible. If it does mix, it will be at the very start of things, and should last that long or come down that heavily. The majority should still be snow, and accumulations shouldn't be majorly influenced by it. I would even say that maybe the snow will start an hour or two later now...closer to 7 or 8pm.
DeleteThere'd be some irony here if we get more snow at the airport with this clipper than we did with Sunday's storm, which looks quite possible now.
ReplyDeleteFor those of us who like to look at the long range, our next POTENTIAL system of interest is a little more than a week away. We'll watch it over the next week to see what it does. We're due for a good non-rain event, aren't we? :)
ReplyDeleteI have an updated blog post on what went right/wrong with my forecast for last Sunday's storm. Although, I think the majority of you have already made up your mind that I failed. Maybe this site needs to be renamed Minneapolis or Twin Cities forecaster instead of Minnesota forecaster!
ReplyDeleteTonight's clipper should start out as a few sprinkles/light rain since it's currently near 40 outside. This will quickly cool everything and change it to snow though. 1-2" is possible across the metro, but I think the majority will stay in the 1" range, due to a lack of moisture and temps so close to freezing.
Next week will be interesting, especially the possible Thu-Fri storm that Duane mentioned above. Most of the model runs have kept everything to the south, but it definitely worth watching.
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ReplyDeleteWhy is it so difficult to get snow here in the metro anymore? Like a poster from earlier today said, it's as though we are living in the Mid-Atlantic where it seems that the odds are almost always in favor of precipitation that is NOT snow! Snow is something that sometimes happens there. It just seems that that is now what the situation has become for the TC metro area.
ReplyDeleteThe long term average snowfall to date is slightly above 30 inches.
ReplyDeleteWe are sitting at 29.4. So, I do not realy see any statistical evidence to back this notion that it is not snowing as it used to be.
And by the way, it is snowing outside.
@Randy Hill Great analysis on your blog! The only question I would have is why the evening event featured more rain than was expected. (It should be noted that I left town in the middle of the day and I'm just going on reports of what happened later.) That the afternoon/evening precip would be snow seemed a surety among all forecasters.
ReplyDeleteAs for location for grading/evaluation, etc., I've always been unabashed about feeling "metro centric." I do this for two reasons: 1) the majority of us do live in the metro, and 2) there has to be a single location for purposes of analysis. I've gathered that most forecasters think of the metro as surprisingly side... sometimes it seems they go with a 40-mile radius from the central urban core.
Good luck next time!
Snowing pretty good here in Eden Prairie,just about an inch so far and radar looks promising,NWS miss boat on headlines again?
ReplyDeleteConcerning the last storm. I believe I put out one of my worst forecast ever with 6" at MSP and 8-12 in the NW metro. I honestly thought that St Cloud would see close to a foot of snow, but it seems like they got the NW metro snow's of around 7-8". I did see a report from someone in Red Wing where he recorded a low pressure of 987mb, giving credence to Randy Hills idea that the low passed over them. My personal score card on this one show's a F.
ReplyDeleteFor those that visit this site often, you may have read that I have been calling for a more active pattern developing from Feb 15th thru March 15th. It looks like it's on track. 1st of all there is weak storm system that should impact the the southern Ohio Valley during 18th-19th time frame, that won't of course affect us. But what it will do as it passes off to the NE is allow a SE ridge to quickly set up. I think this SE ridge could be a predominant feature during the next 30 days, although it could flatten for a 2 day period or so it should redevelop rather quickly.
ReplyDeleteGoing back to the 18-19th system, that should set the stage for the next storm that is progged for around the 21st-22nd. It's way to early to tell if it will impact MSP, but in the long run I don't think it matters,(although some of the guidance suggests it will.) What I think it will do however is lay a good solid snow pack down from IA to Madison and possibly the entire OH Valley. What does that mean for us? Any southerly winds that should develop will not necessarily bring warm temps up here as those winds will cool as it passes over the snow pack. So any storms that should track towards us will not have temp issue from the surface to about 925mb. All in all, I still see us impacted by a strong storm if not two of them between now and March 15th.
21st/22nd is starting to look interesting. Looks like a classic early March type storm. Even the SPC is looking at it for what could be a really good looking setup for severe weather.
ReplyDeleteLATER IN THE WEEK A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT MAY UNFOLD FROM EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS 100KT+ MID LEVEL SPEED MAX APPROACHES WHAT SHOULD BE A MORE MOIST/BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT. IF UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS MANAGE TO ADVANCE SUBSTANTIALLY INLAND AN ORGANIZED SEVERE SCENARIO MAY UNFOLD DURING
I knew the clipper last night was going to be abit frisky.........a solid 3 inches in golden valley,exactly what I got on Sunday,go figure.....hyped storm 3 inches,no hype storm same 3 inches..........goes to show you storms work in funny ways,you think you may have it figures out and then in the last moment a curveball,heavy band setup right over western metro last night.goes to show you NWS headlines aren't always the bible,not this year anyway.
ReplyDeleteFor those of you who complain about the lack of snow, I found today's 'On This Day' from the MPX NWS interesting.
ReplyDelete1923: Black Dust Blizzard ended after two days. Dirt from North Dakota created "dark drifts."
Things have been and could be a lot worse!
I do like this outlook - https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/302113266233131008/photo/1
ReplyDeleteThen again don't look at this one if you like snow in MSP... MSP is in a donut hole!
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/302148778859835392/photo/1
Is it me or are the big storms looking good for major snowstorms in the metro a week out and then over time drift north or drift south.
ReplyDeleteNext weeks storm going south already!
Colorado Low---translation---Minneapolis slop fest! also 2nd meaning----Lacrosse/Madison area blizzard!
ReplyDeleteNot our year gentleman!
Take a look at my post from above...I was strongly hinting at the fact that this could go south, I just don't believe it's our time yet, it may have to wait until March when the southern jet lifts far enough north. Keep in mind this is not anywhere near like last year, southern Canada is full of snow, I do expect some type of phasing system to effect us.. any way here is what I posted..
ReplyDelete" It's way to early to tell if it will impact MSP, but in the long run I don't think it matters,(although some of the guidance suggests it will.) What I think it will do however is lay a good solid snow pack down from IA to Madison and possibly the entire OH Valley."
It now looks like it adds northern KS and all of NE. We just have to wait our turn. The last storm I think is a anomaly to the over all pattern that I see developing. 1st big storm hits the NE US, the 18-19th storm while not strong impacts the eastern OH valley, and the storm for the 21st-22nd affects almost all of our area to the south. That sets a good snow pack to our south. The pattern is there, I still think it will happen, the question is when???
I believe the euro & ggem are too cold & too far south with the cold air next week & thus their further south storm track. Right now, i think Nebraska into Iowa, n Illinois have the best shot of the heaviest snow.
ReplyDeleteThat still has no bearing on MSP,but I'll be sure to contact some folks down there and tell them snow is coming.
DeleteBig snowfalls are not a friend of MSP,I guess we just need to enjoy the now and again clippers.
Maybe not but MSP is one of the few spots that's had a big snowfall this season...Euro hasn't been anyone's friend as far as consistency and living up to it's, so called "king status"
DeleteGood to know we've nailed down the track on a storm that is 7 days out.
ReplyDeleteSuch a good point! I think I'll check back with this site on the 20th to see what folks are predicting!
DeleteHere's a mashup of what I'd be missing in the next week:
"Bring it!"
"Snow dance!"
"It's shifted."
"Minnesota sucks now."
"Damn mets."
"It's back!"
"BRING IT!"
"It shifted."
"Damn mets."
"Read my blog."
"MSP is in the bullse...wait, it shifted."
"1" of slop."
"DAMN METS."
You forgot "I'm peeing my pants" 3 times in that breakdown.
DeleteAnd EVERY forecast on every news outlet between now and next Thursday will contain the words, "the track still is uncertain so be sure to check back for updates."
DeleteBesides the 7 inch snowfall in late December down here in Rochester we haven't really had much (exception from Clipper mania a few weeks back where it totaled from 6-8 inches). From the last few storms it's been mainly rain and/or ice. Looking at a snow depth/cover map central Minnesota looks darn sweet. Yet with all that, we've already passed last years snowfall totals.
ReplyDeleteNovak isn't giving much credence into the storm late next week. The last 5 GFS runs including today's 12Z run still bring snows this way!
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/NovakWeather/status/302454130587340800
Excellent,lets hope he continues that thinking,because if he was saying something along the lines of what he usually says-"I love the setup next week" our chances of heavy snow fade,if he pays no attention to it,watch out here comes Winter Storm Novak(man the weather channel should have used Novak),if this storm develops what name are we up to.
DeleteAlso beware Mr. Conservative himself,PD,is liking our chances of a storm next week.
WHAT! PD LIKES A STORM AND NOVAK DOESN'T WHAT HAS OUR WORLD COME TO.
I have not left a comment in a while, so I think I would like to chip in here. In response to the post this is how I will grade the forecasters:
ReplyDeletePaul Douglas: A ( Even I agree that he deserves it)
Weather Channel: A ( Kind of an unsung hero
KARE: A- (they did a good job, but did not really latch on until late.)
MPR: B (never were really good at keeping consistent updates
NWS: B (now, people might criticize this grade, but you need to remember, these guys have the added pressure of issuing weather produts, and the added criticism that comes with it. We had a discussion earlier about this, and since then, I have been more lenient with them. But still, they could have done a better job.
KMSP: C (middle of the pack prediction, middle of the pack grade.)
WCCO: D+ ( Seemed a little less than average, fell for the models.)
KSTP F (Wishful thinking. Better luck next time)
As for the storm: WAY WAY far out. Will wait till it is closer. I think the comments above cover it pretty well.
Increased hopes? Euro and GFS have moved a little further north now tracking the low near the Quad Cities. GFS puts out about 6 to 7 for the Twin Cities with the Euro showing 8 to 10 inches on the 12z runs.
ReplyDeleteI think someone is starting to get a little tinkle in his pants.......if PWL read the NWS area discusion for this evening he would see their hinting at 8-12+ for Thursday/Friday with 80% chances already.......this should be interesting,let's get a good dumping were overdue!
ReplyDeleteAs everyone mentions further below, I can't recall an 80% chance of snow used this far out. Or at least having it used within the forecast wording. Which is making me nervous (that it won't happen). Should be an interesting next few days.
DeleteThis system is getting very interesting indeed. Looking at the ECMWF forecast sounding for Thursday evening at midnight, I"m seeing a dendritic growth zone that is a outstanding 300mb deep!!!
ReplyDeleteHaving said that there is a lot of wind in that zone that will act to tear up those fragile crystal formations, so accumulations should be somewhat stunted. Yet on the flip slide if I do a hand calculation based on QPF amounts and the temp profile at 850mb and at the surface for MSP I come up with 14-17". The GFS is showing around 9-12".
THIS IS NOT A FORECAST FOR SNOW AMOUNTS.....it is simply a attempt to raise the red flag if you have travel plans from Thursday through Friday, as travel could become difficult to say the least.
As many of you know I have been calling for a major snowfall for MSP between Feb 15th and March 15th. This one, if it should verify will be somewhat earlier than I thought, so one more major one could be in the cards.
Anyone looking at boston again?
ReplyDeleteI guess in some places they are expecting another foot where they have already seen two to three feet of snow from that monster earlier. Luckly they got plenty of melting between the previous storm and now. But still, they have got to be thinking "not again". Crazy.
Looking ahead: I think we may very well get a good thrashing of snow from this upcoming system. Both Paul Douglas and the NWS have been on the dot for most of this winter (exept for the 8-9 december snow for PD and the recent one for NWS) . Both of them are liking the chances of a good snowstorm. I am sure that if PD (with his thirty years of experience as a meteorologist) must have somthing up his sleeve if he really is this optomisitc. To tell you the truth, I am starting to respect the guy. I know that he is pessimistic, but being a meteorologist for that long and watching so many snowtors disappear before his eyes probably does that to anyone who has been working in that area for that long.
Anyway... Keeping my fingers crossed and hoping for the best.
Wow! To be talking amounts this far out is amazing! This could be the big one. I try to not get my hopes up but I am all in! BRING IT!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteTime for a new post I think Bill. This is some crazy confidence for being six days out.
ReplyDeleteAS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...INCLUDING WITH TIMING AND INTENSITY. THEREFORE... RAISED POPS INTO THE DEFINITE CATEGORY WHICH IS QUITE RARE AT THIS RANGE BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE SUPPORTS IT NONETHELESS.
MAKING SNOWFALL PREDICTIONS AT THIS RANGE IS RARE AS WELL...BUT QPF ON ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE ODDBALL 12Z CANADIAN ARE AT LEAST 0.6 INCHES AND SOME APPROACH OR EXCEED 1 INCH. WITH A 15:1 RATIO AS A ROUGH GUESS...IT IS CONCEIVABLE MUCH OR ALL OF THE CWA COULD SEE 8 TO 12+ INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN MOST CONSISTENT IN PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
I have to say I love this forum with great discussions and musings about our local weather and the forecasters that try to figure it all out. There is some great insight here despie the grade we got on the last storm. Yes we over forecasted snow amounts in the metro as the thermal profiles did not go as planned. I put too much snow stock in the Euro when nowcasting should have our tool. I really find this next storm intersting but also respect what Novak has to say as always. PD is as smart as it gets but there is a bent with his thoughts that we all know about. Cant ignore his tenure nor Dahls as well. This upper low is coming at us and with an artic high to our NE so an awesome overrunning event will get going Thursday. A block is also setting up to our North which will slow this low down prelonging the light snow with an invereted surface trough. All in all this has the potential of being a great snow maker but a shift south can not be ignored if high gets too strong. I say bring it.
ReplyDeleteThis is the most sure I've seen NWS be about a storm this far out since the one that dropped well over a foot in December 2010. I can't remember the last time they gave an 80% chance of precipitation six days out, but that's what they're doing right now for next Thursday.
ReplyDeleteThat December 2010 storm not only dropped over a foot of snow but dropped the Metrodome as well.
DeleteI love your input Hammer,I say Bring It as well!
Not sure when your returning from your vacation Bill,but as CWY2190 alluded to a new post would be welcome for this one,if for nothing else the high confidence the NWS is exhibiting........welcome back,no rest for the weary!
ReplyDelete@Randyinchamplain keep talking the major storm angle its working.
Before really getting excited for this system forecast to come in, I'm going to give it more time and see how things hold as we really get closer to Thursday and how things react to a low that, while still a good strength, is in the process of weakening. If anyone is curious, that swirl that is NW of the Aleutian Islands (as of 2am Sun morn) is our system of interest. So, as you can tell, it has a long path to go. Overall model agreement has been outstanding (which honestly is shocking). The Canadian model is the odd ball out in this one, but is slowly catching up. Blocking is there, pattern is there, Gulf is there, and yes, even cold air is there (so far) ha ha! I am liking our chances more and more with each passing day, but know how quickly things can shift.
ReplyDeleteWith so many near misses this year, I am remaining cautiously pessimistic about Thursday's potential storm. The consistency of the models is promising, and the gulf moisture train will definitely be in place. One thing keeping me from jumping on board quite yet is the large ridge developing over Manitoba, with a high of 1040+mb. This could keep the larger swath of 8+inches near the MN/IA/SD border. But the 00Z GFS is painting over .5" QPF over a large area, so a decent plowable storm is very likely, but nothing we aren't used to here. Once the storm reaches Cali. by Monday we will be able to hone more specific accumulations.
ReplyDeleteFor what it's worth, GFS puts parts of the TC Metro in the 12-15" category by Friday night
ReplyDeletehttp://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_144HR.gif
Note: These are only straight model outputs that I'm posting for comparison and to watch for track changes/consistency.
ReplyDelete0z Euro - Twin Cities in the 0.6 to 0.7" total precip range. Surface low tracks over the Twin Cities which is much further north then the IA/MO border a few days ago.
0z GFS - Twin Cities is in the 0.8 to 0.9" total precip range. Surface low tracks near Winona.
6z GFS - Twin Cities is in the 0.8 to 0.9" total precip range. Surface low tracks from Rochester towards Lake City.
Seriously our storm of interest will be called "Q",Plato was named last night for the new Northeast storm,that's ridicilious weather channel,that's as creative as you can be with q,Qbert would have been better for all those Atari users out there,but seriously these name calling is stupid.
ReplyDeleteI don't know...
ReplyDeleteWith a blizzard setting up to the north, that name may be taken.
Accuweather already calling for 3-6 inches Thursday night
ReplyDeleteI'm sure this storm will find a way to go too far north and give us slop or too far south to give us flurries,remember storms always look good for the metro intially and then it goes sideways from there,you guys are getting too excited too early.
ReplyDeleteThe reason why confidence is so hsig in this storm is because of the amazing model corralation and the nature of this type of storm. You see, this is a classic "conveyor belt" system. In other words, this thing is drawing moisture directly from the gulf and feeding it to us. The high pressure sticks around long enough so there is not enough time to warm things up to result in a slopfest. As for going too far south, the same high pressure that will keep things cool helps pull this system northward. So unless the high pressure is destroyed or mutilated beyond recognitition, then this storm is likley to hit us.
DeleteWhat's more, the nature of this style of storm results in such a wide swath of snowfall that it is not that difficult for forecasters to mention amounts this early. Even Paul Douglas is saying that this system will probably result in a plowable snow event.
This is what makes me so exited about this storm.
One storm at a time would be nice,but Dahl,Accuweather and Weather.com are all over another snowstorm one week out(Sunday/Monday)and NWS has 30% of snow,good problem to have,fun week coming up starting with a minor clipper system tommorrow(which could surprise some with 1-3 inches)
ReplyDeleteKARE 11 Sunday night forecast by Jerrid Sebesta says the Thursday storm is 50/50 for our area for snow.
ReplyDeleteFor WCCO, Lauren Casey mentioned significant snowfall is appearing more likely for Southern MN from Thu evening into Friday.
Both of them calling for b/w 0 and up to 1" for the metro for Monday.
Just watched Dave Dahl and he didn't sound very convincing when he started talking about snow chances when the 7-day forecast came up on the screen,he stated "the possibility of slightly heavier snows Thursday and Friday" and "a tricky forecast for the weekend",his graphic had snow from Thursday thru Sunday,which is encouraging,its just I'm abit surprised he's not so gong-ho with the late week snow,like the NWS is.Its just an observation is all.
ReplyDeleteLess QPF coming in for Thursday/ Friday system?dry tongue into MSP?
ReplyDeletePD in tonights blog backing off somewhat for a large snowstorm,saying totals will be in the lower range but still plowable(big winner will be Nebraska/Iowa),but he does dive into the Sunday/Monday(1 week out)storm saying that precip will be substanial,but also hints at the possibility of slop with warm air getting wrapped into the system.
Time will tell......should be an interesting week to 10 days!
The first storm is really tricky. Thursday morning the upper level jet is still somewhat phased on both the Euro and the GFS, by noon as the snow shield approaches MN all thinks look good. However at about that time the GFS quickly decouples it, and it forces the lower level jet quickly to south and east near the southern gulf coast states. This acts to cut off most of the moisture flow. The Euro is about 6-8 hours later with this feature, so obviously the Euro has more moisture.
ReplyDeleteStorm 2 is on both maps and looks to be mixed bag, but it is very impressive. After that the GFS gets pretty quiet. However at the end of the Euro run storm number 3 looks to be locked and loaded over the TX/OK panhandle one again. For a weather enthusiast it really doesn't get much better than this.
@Randyinchamplain your major snowstorm that you have been calling looks best with Storm 2 as long as no mix/slop gets sucked into MSP,but with temps 30-32 it will be a close call!
DeleteProblem seems to be the storm is peaking in strength over Nebraska and Kansas and then weakening as it moves NE towards high pressure. Looks like some people in KS/NE/SD/IA are going to be in for a busy Thursday.
ReplyDeleteThree storms being talked about at once? That is awesome! I don't like inaccuweather with the rest of you, but they have a snowy pattern painted. Love just looking at it. Storm 1 should be fun but just light - moderate snow at times. If we get 6+ inches, it would be over a longer period. Forcing and banding will be limited due to weakening. Hope I am wrong with the weakening. Storm 2 looks the most fun. It has the most power and most moisture potential. Being on the edge of slop potential men's being on the edge of the heavy snow potential. Storm 3 is too far out but active weather = sleepless anticipating nights and days. Bring them!!!!!
ReplyDeleteI'm feeling like I should just join the "anonymous" camp in here, and just hang up this winter and move on to summer. Unless the GFS is just being dumb which is really possible, chances look less and less and less for some decent snow with this upcoming system. It weakens too quickly (which I was worried about to begin with). Maybe it is just the American models not being able to figure anything out until the last minute...or maybe the Euro is too bullish. Quite frankly I'm more interested in the system after this one at this point in time. Models are pretty spread out with the track, but I'm sure a track from Iowa into Minnesota will happen and we will be stuck in the mixing again. Finally an active pattern shows up...and the first system splits north and south and comes together off to the east. The second looks perfect until it gets into MN and fizzles. The third, probably gonna be too warm. Sorry, I realize that third one will fluctuate a lot and move around a lot and may even just go away but I'm tired of winter now and always having something dumb happen to prevent a few good storms from impacting the area.
ReplyDelete@Duane, Amen! I could not agree with you more. Let's face it folks, this is not the Metro's winter. Northern & western MN have been cleaning up in the cold and snow department this season. For example, as of this morning western & northern MN are reporting 20-40 inches of snow on the ground. The Metro is reporting 4-8 inches. As for cold, as of February 17th Duluth has officially recorded 23 nights below zero and International Falls has officially recorded 46 nights below zero!! The Metro has officially recorded only 8 nights below zero. I know that it's always colder up north, but most of the cold fronts this season seemed to have lost a lot of umpf once they reached the Metro. The storms have favored western & northern MN, while the Metro has either missed out completely or has endured slopfests. Yesterday's chatter about a possibly big snowstorm later this week for the Metro has now been replaced with a mention of possibly a couple of inches instead. To add insult to injury, the discussion about the subsequent storm is...wait for it...you guessed it, ANOTHER slopfest! Now where have we seen that movie before?!! As much as I love winter I am ready to cut my losses and turn my attention to thoughts of warm and sunny May days. Let's try this winter thing again next season, ladies and gentlemen.
DeleteAs long as I can't see grass, I'm loving this winter. And I don't see the 8" in my backyard melting any time soon. Sure we could have more, but no complaints as snow cover looks to stick around at least through the end of the month.
ReplyDeleteI agree with the comments of Duane and of Anonymous from 11:45 a.m. today. The Metro has been on the razor's edge all season of having a really good winter. As a winter fan and bonafide snow junkie I of course wish it had been colder and that we had more snow on the ground and more frequent snowfalls and snowstorms. However, at least the weather has been cold and "snowy" enough to give the Metro a continuous snow cover since early December. Heck, where I grew up they are lucky to get a snow cover for 2 consecutive days let alone 3 consecutive months! I am holding out hope that the next few systems bring the Metro at least a few inches of snow each. If they don't, then they don't. That will be rather par for the course for this season. I just hope we don't get that mix mess again. At any rate, Spring will be here before we know it.
DeleteSaw the latest NWS forecast included the following choice words for Thursday night:"The snow could be heavy at times."
ReplyDeleteGuess it's time for me to create a new thread for upcoming snow possibilities.