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| Yes, it's once again time to stare out the window at falling snow. |
Six to ten inches of snow seems to be the magic phrase. The Star Tribune blog (Paul Douglas), last updated shortly before noon, details 5-8" of snow, a bit lower than the consensus. The KMSP (Fox) forecast was a hair above the consensus at 7 to 11 inches.
WCCO: 6-10 (5 p.m. news)
KSTP: 6-10 (5:30 p.m. news)
KMSP: 7-11 (5:30 p.m. news)
KARE: 6-10 (5 p.m. news)
NWS: 6-10 (weather.gov)
Strib/Paul Douglas: 5-8
MPR: (no original entry; cited NWS info)
Accuweather: 6-10
TWC: 6-10
Novak Weather: 8-10 (but warns conservative)
Chase the Plains: 8-9
Shakopee Weather: 6-9
Note: The NWS in La Crosse has MSP in the 9-13 inch range.
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I think its worth noting that NWS La Crosse has the Twin Cities in the 9-13" band.
ReplyDeleteThanks for passing that on. I just revised the post to reflect that.
DeleteTalk of a foot of snow is awesome. Bring it, baby, bring it!!! We could get two big ones in one winter! Bring that, too. When I see the snow flying tomorrow morning and all the way through Tuesday morning, I will be dancing and peeing. Bring it!! I am just dang excited.
ReplyDeleteThe Weather Channel graphic on TV when discussing Saturn has us in the 8-12 band,as well as adding up the totals on their app on my phone.
ReplyDeleteTWC, like the Strib and even the NWS, sometimes confuses things. The video presentation I saw said 6-10. A little frustrating that outlets don't provide consistent presentations on all media.
DeleteBring every thing you got...foot plus would be nice!
ReplyDelete@Bill is that the new pup?
@Big Daddy... Nah, thought I'd pull the late dog out for one more appearance. Waiting for the warmer weather to get a new pup. Thanks for asking!
ReplyDeletegoing for 9-12" across the metro with 12-14 possible near the Lakevile to Hasitngs area. Less north, more south. Bust potential is somewhat high because of the long duration of the event. If model consensus is right with the snowfall on Tuesday temps aloft want to slide into the DGZ range and winds will be negligible. MSP 10.5 to 11.5" On a side note the 4km high resolution NAM has 10-12" over the metro based on a snow water ratio of 10:1, if that's right almost all will bust low, me included.
ReplyDeleteken barlow @kenbarlowTV
ReplyDeleteNew NAM Model shows heaviest shifting east of MSP but still keeps us 6-8" TOTAL by Tuesday afternoon.
Dave Dahl @ 9 p.m. mentioned only 1" of snow for the TC Metro before 7 a.m. He referenced a mixed precip event starting with sleet. Is this going to bust out??
ReplyDeleteDD even went as far as saying schools will likely be in session tomorrow except for maybe southwestern Minnesota. DD is usually bullish on snow, this is very strange coming from him!
DeleteC'mon. Hang in there. Bring it. Don't let me down now. Bring it!!!!!
ReplyDeleteI can already hear the snow melting later this week, and it hasn't even fallen yet! Spring is almost here!
ReplyDeleteDud! Bust! Call it what you want,first shot of snow was to be a solid 3-6 according to what the NWS was selling yesterday,this snow this morning will be lucky to get 2 inches(that's even what their aviation forecast said)and looking at radar where is our second shot of snow coming from?cuz that heavy stuff in ND is going to northern MN.Good thing I didn't alter my travel plans today,yes its slower,but no big deal,I'm getting around town quite easily!
ReplyDeleteLOL. I was wondering when that post would show up.
ReplyDeleteGood thing we have 'Weather Junkie' on this board to contradict everyone with that great science of simply looking at a radar summary. I'm sure that 'WJ' has digested all the model data over the last 48 hours to come up with that last quality post.
ReplyDeleteSeriously 'WJ', people don't mind if you play Devils Advocate, but do it with style. If you can't add any decent science to back up your rogue posts, then just keep your thoughts to yourself. Nobody wants your negative & scorned attitude on this board.
Latest NWS graphic has the Twin Cities in the 7 to 11 inch range.
ReplyDeleteKARE 11 is trending down and inch, now sven is reporting 5-9 (was 6-10). I would expect if you live in the metro expect at least 7. Provided we don't start the mass down-grade of the storm as it hits. I am having a hard time determining when the "main body" of the snow will hit, this round this morning seems to be pretty light. Any ideas?
ReplyDeletePaul Douglas is on to something once again. A good 3 inches less here in Owatonna then the weather bureau was saying was going to come in the first wave. Maybe on the low side of the 5-8" he was expecting?
ReplyDeleteI think there's a lot of people missing the fact that the totals being 'hyped' have a lot more to do with duration rather than intensity. There will be breaks, and periods of heavier snow, but few people are going to experience the real blast they associate with a snow'storm'. NWS has a series 6 hour accumulation graphics and the only one that shows more than 2 inches in a 6hr period is from midnight to 6am tomorrow with 3.3". The rest are 1.8,1.0,1.6 etc... but add it all up and the totals will still be hefty. A lighter first wave this morning may reduce the odds of a foot, but it's still going to be enough to dance or grumble about when it finally quits tomorrow afternoon.
ReplyDeleteI got up at 7:15 expecting to see the driveway and streets covered based on the hysteria and pandemonium that ensued last night on our local infotainment stations of KARE and WCCO. (Seriously, I pretty much cannot stand watching local news broadcasts anymore. The "cute" factor has gone nauseatingly overboard.)
ReplyDeleteBut there was no snow. Finally by about 7:45 it started snowing, but it's very small, fine flakes and not much accumulation. Roads aren't slick (yet).
Batten down the hatches! It's Winter Storm Saturn!
ReplyDeleteWell, for the sake of the commuters I guess it's good that the NWS missed its forecast of moderate/heavy snow for this morning's rush hour. Yesterday morning the NWS was saying that snow should be falling at the rate of 3/4 of an inch per hour throughout this morning.
ReplyDeleteWell it seems for once the NWS was expecting the criticism: never seen something like these in their discussion:
ReplyDelete"LOCAL SHORTRANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HOP-
WRF...SHOW THIS BAND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO VERY LIGHT SNOW
AND POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MAKES ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD AND ENCOUNTERS THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. THIS MAY GIVE
THE FALSE NOTION THAT THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS A BUST...BUT DO NOT BE FOOLED. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE NORTH AMERICAN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS A DRY AREA UPSTREAM FROM THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS DENOTES THE HIGH POTENTIAL VORTICITY
OF THE STRATOSPHERIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND
JET STREAK. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS HIGH PV RESERVOIR WILL
FEED INTO THE SHORTWAVE...CAUSING IT TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THIS
WAVE...EVIDENT BY THE TREMENDOUS QVECT CONVERGENCE...WILL LEAD TO
AN AREA OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION CENTERED WITHIN THE H500/600MB
LAYER ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE H500MB LOW TRACK. AS THE
MOVES/DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST...A PROLONGED AREA OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
FALL ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE FACT THAT
THE SURFACE LOW WILL FILL 10MB OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS!
SO do not be fooled. I like that!
Now it would really be funny if this thing is a bust!!
ReplyDeleteTake it easy, people. The storm is doing what was expected. We about 2-4 inches in the Plymouth area, which is what was expected. The next wave, late tonight and tomorrow morning is forecast to be heavier, etc. We will see if that gets adjusted or not. I do not see how this morning's forecast was a bust at all. The roads are horrible and the snow is still falling at 11:00. So far, right on the money. Bring it!!
ReplyDeleteSteady snow and breezy in Burnsville at this time.
DeleteIt looks like a snow globe out there! Mid-sized flakes are swirling around in the wind. It is a postcard-type scene!
Delete1 3/4" to 2" in Minnetonka at this time. TWC shows break at 1 then 4pm developing heavier snow thoughout the eve and night and morning. Hard to figure when to plow this stuff. We are heading out for 4 hours or so now, then back in for the night, hitting commercials at 3am and run through 14+ hours till done. See ya MNPLOWCO
ReplyDeleteOnly a slight trace of snow on the ground in Oakdale.
ReplyDeleteIncorrect @Plymouth Weather Lover thus far this has been a bust,NWS was calling for a "solid 3-6" with this first wave and as mentioned above 3/4" snows a hour this morning during the morning commute didn't happen,just measured 1 1/2 inches in Robbinsdale,if this second wave doesn't materialize or isn't stronger then the first this whole forecast from everyone is a bust,I'm waiting for Saturn to really show its white of its eyes!
ReplyDeleteMaybe 3/4" in St. Paul at 12:30. Less than I'd expected to see.
ReplyDeleteHalf inch or so in South Mpls. If we are going to make that 10-12 inch+ mark that many are forecasting, it better come down super heavy overnight. Maybe that's still in the cards?
ReplyDeleteWhat a joke this storm is,at least ALL the forecasters were fooled with this one,and not just some of you,what are you going to say the models let you down,I guess there's not much else you can say,except I do have one question,was there any one model depicting anywhere close to what has happened today,cuz if there was no one was brave enough to follow it and was just easier to go with the consenus. Oh well,maybe next time!
ReplyDeleteThat "solid 3-6 inches" the NWS predicted to fall in the Metro this morning instead fell in far southern MN. There are many reports of 3-4 inches from Mankato south. Hmmm, wasn't the original forecast from a few days ago that the heaviest snow would fall in far southern MN? Wave 1 was a bust in the Metro. I hope Wave 2 late today and tonight makes up for it!
ReplyDeleteMark P - check in tomorrow morning...
ReplyDeleteDo I dare venture out??? There is 1/32 of an inch on my driveway. Otsego/Albertville.
ReplyDeleteWow people need to chill the heck out. Wave one was supposed to be stronger in far southern MN and that's what happened. Last nights model runs decreased the intensity of the first wave, but increased the second wave which makes sense since the overall dynamics are going to be better with the inverted trough. It will snow heavy tonight, it will pile up quickly, and we will end up with quite a bit of snow. Forecasters have been saying for a while now that there will be a lull with the heaviest stuff overnight tonight. Stop looking at what's on radar now because it's only the start of things. It will intensify overnight as we are all sound asleep in our beds. Stay safe people.
ReplyDeleteHere's a nice web presentation from the NWS issued this afternoon. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=tCkL9Sbpp2g
ReplyDeleteNWS La Crosse has shifted the heaviest snow band(8-11 inches)for tonight and tommorrow slightly to the east to whereas most of the metro is not included,MSP according to them will receive 6-8 with 1.5 haven fallen already at MSP that makes a storm total of 7.5-9.5,which just last night was 9-13!
ReplyDeleteNWS MSP already has trimmed counties to the west off of the warning area and even admitted in their discussion they weren't aggressive enough saying another row of counties could have been trimmed,which would have been right up to the metro,sighting the heavy snow tonight will setup from Minneapolis to Menomime,Wis.
The point I'm trying to make with these two sutle but important shifts is it is the begginning of the tap dancing of lesser snow at MSP,where I remind you is what Bill uses for the purpose of this blog,maybe other viewers may get more,it will be interesting to see MSP's final number.It is also the beginning of this second wave setting up near the Wisconsin border and delivering more to that state and be lucky for MSP to reach warning level snow.We'll see how this plays,its just what I see happening is all.
Travel pretty easy on this wet pavement,also my morning commute was delayed only 10 minutes and I travel over an hour on 94 thru the heart of the metro.
ReplyDeleteThe way this second swath is setting up, it looks like it will mainly hit from 494 in the west east toward Eau Claire. Unless it fills in a lot on the back end, we in the far west metro aren't going to see much overnight.
ReplyDeleteCrazy how these storms shift. 2-3 days ago, they had the bullseye from about Alexandria to Mankato.
I'm sort of watching this weather documentary on public TV. I find it hilarious that we're complaining about miniscule details regarding the forecasting of this storm.
ReplyDeleteIn 1940 a bunch of people died in the snow because they had no idea a freaking storm was COMING. Now look at us! :)
Disco, that's hilarious. So true!
DeleteIndeed!
DeleteExcellent point!!
DeleteWe asked. They answered. A nice explanation from the NWS as to how snow ranges are communicated. https://twitter.com/MNforecaster/status/308759507566206977/photo/1
ReplyDeleteWell, that was fun, we plowed more than we thought we would.
ReplyDeleteDropping at a pretty good pace at this time (or at least it seems so through the plow head lights) Sleep til 2:30am then comes another long, long day and into the night. Cheers MNPLOWCO
Got the same amount of snow in the last half hour as we got all day in Highland Park. For a time, it was coming down pretty nicely.
ReplyDeleteNewest model data coming in with a bit lesser numbers, still in the 8-10 range for areas near the metro, but more in the 6-8 range elsewhere. It is an interesting shift in the models so we'll have to wait and see how things do pan out. Snow is blossoming really nicely across Minnesota and down into Iowa. Maybe the models are yet again struggling which would be strange since the event is ongoing. Don't be too surprised if forecasters drop their numbers a bit more with this new info. It's the joys of forecasting and nowcasting. :)
ReplyDeleteFor those of you that think weather forecasting is easy you ought to check this out.
ReplyDeletehttp://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_24HR.gif
What appears to have happened is the a weak 500mb ridge will set up over the Chicago area, this will act to slow down the progression of the 500mb low as it drops to the south and east, through tomorrow morning possibly into the afternoon, there is some nice positive vorticity pushing into far eastern MN.
Some of the shorter term models are showing this as well.
Seems recent models are lowering things down slightly.
ReplyDelete2z RAP still looking pretty impressive from about 12am-2pm with widespread 20-35dbz reflectivity.
If that does indeed come true, should definitely be seeing widespread 6+" as was forecasted from St. Cloud and South/East.
Don't forget, with amounts already from 2-4" in a majority of areas, a solid 12 hours of snow doesn't even need to be that terribly heavy. Even 1/3" rates would be enough to get everybody up to 6".
Well, regardless of what models (and in this case, even radar) is showing, one has to remember the best indicator is visual observation.
ReplyDeleteWe had 1.5" total through 5:30 pm (including last nights). I just did a 10 pm measurement (yea I know, not 6 hours apart, but its still a good indicator), and it gave me a large surprise. We're now at 4" with moderate to heavy snow falling. The most ironic thing? We're just now finally getting good returns on the radar east of St. Cloud where I live.
Belinda Jensen has upped Kare 11's totals slightly for the entire eastern 1/2 of a state.
ReplyDeleteStar Tribune in one article suggested that parts of the area could get up to 10 inches of snow in just the midnight-6:00 time frame. Of course, Paul Douglas's blog still says 5-8" two day total, with no update since around noon.
I've written to the Strib reporter about all the inconsistencies (between weather video, PD's column and the forecast feed taken from the NWS). Have not heard back from him.
DeleteThis snow reminds me of springtime with these on again off again bursts of snow,kinda like thundershowers in April/May......is this really going to add up to the 6-12 inches storm total that was forecasted?,I could see the 6 but 12 is a stretch due to the lower first band that only dropped 1.5 at MSP.Thoughts?
ReplyDeleteBig Daddy, remember that I was calling for a wide spread 9-11" for the metro. I don't think we will see 12, but it's possible, my error may have been putting 12-14 near the Hastings area. This radar returns seem to be lifting straight north. The north and the south systems are just now starting to phase based on regional radar returns. Now If I believe what will happens does in fact come to pass and the H5 to H7 upper low does stall out it should lift straight towards the metro. Look at the axis of the 700mb trough off the spc Meso analysis page as it extends into IA and how seems to be locked into the metro.
Deletehttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/700mb/700mb.gif?1362458802856
Seems to be a very "pulsing" snow. One minute it's very light; the next moment it's coming down like it means business.
ReplyDeleteBill, you and big daddy were reading my mind. I too was analogizing this to thundershowers. One minute there's nothing and the next minute there is a deluge! I see what randyinchamplin is talking about. A solid wall of moderate to heavy snow is moving due north up I-35 towards the metro. That makes me happy because I live in the southern metro right around I-35. Let it snow!! Btw, here in the Apple Valley area we are sitting at about 4 inches of new snow for today. The mid-sized flakes are starting to come down once again.
DeleteThis is a model that I have been riding hard, it's called the RGEM. It is a very high resolution 48hr model and it has been very consistent. If you can zoom in on the map, you would see a area of close to 20mm of liquid precip over the metro area from 6pm tonight thru the next 48 hrs, that equates to about .80". At a ratio of 12-13:1 you can do the math.
ReplyDeletehttp://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_00/accum/PR_000-048_0000.gif
Bufkit actually still has MSP picking up an additional 9" according to the NAM based on max temp in profile (has ~16.5:1 ratio)
ReplyDeleteThats some serious snow coming down here in Eden Prairie right now!
ReplyDeleteSnowing heavily in Lakeville with nickel to quarter size flakes!!
ReplyDeleteHeavy snow in Rosemount/Apple Valley!
DeleteThe trowel is starting to set up as the phase is beginning. If you look at the radar out of MPX you can see a very slight move of the radar returns to west of north. Now go and run a loop out of the Lacrosse office and you can see the precip shield near Rochester lifting to the NW.
ReplyDeleteYep, can definitely see that.
DeleteHey big daddy, are you going to be around for about 20 min? I have a bit of technical stuff if you want to see it. It explains what's happening
ReplyDeleteYes,sir...I work the graveyard shift I will be here all night,hit me up whenever you want,I check it ever so often. Thanks!
DeleteThe NWS, through forecasts on weather.gov, now seems to be calling for 7 to 13 (not counting whatever fell this morning).
ReplyDeleteTonight: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Tuesday: Snow, mainly before 3pm. High near 29. East northeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Keep in mind that mother nature always wants to keep a balance in a column of air, in other words it wants to keep a steady air pressure from top to bottom.
ReplyDeleteLook at the black lines as I post these maps where they are close together you have area's of equal pressure. Where the lines diverge you have have a void, mother nature can't replace that air from above, it has to come from below.
At 300mb very high aloft, notice the divergence of the black lines.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/300mb/300mb.gif?1362463641863
at 500mb, a little lower it's still there.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/500mb/500mb.gif?1362463756637
at 700mb it's starting to tighten up
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/700mb/700mb.gif?1362464523579
To make a long story short lets look at the surface, notice that you have a tighter gradient at the surface. And also look at the placement of the surface low over the Dakotas, with its counter clockwise rotation, that's why the trowel is setting up, but because you have surface air raising up to replace the void aloft, you are starting to see a great deal of lift in the atmosphere as it's fairly unstable.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/pmsl/pmsl.gif?1362464662380
Good stuff Randy.....I love reading your stuff and staring out the window....keep this snow coming,anyone need a snowblower?
Deleteok, time for bed, I have to be up to clear the driveway around 6am...CRAP, I love forecasting snow, I just hate it's aftermath!!!! LMAO
ReplyDeletePD is finally on board, from his blog posted at 12:47 am on the strib site...... "TODAY: Winter Storm Warning. Heavy snow slowly tapers by mid afternoon. 6-9" totals. Winds: N 10-20. High: 28"
ReplyDeleteBrought it!!!!
ReplyDeleteRight about 6" in Red Wing.
ReplyDeleteMan. my kids cannot get a break. Their Bloomington charter school has not called a Snow Day. ughhh what does it take? Loving all the beautiful snow though. Keep it coming!
ReplyDeleteWooHoo they finally called it SNOW DAY!!! Plus we need all 4 of them to shovel since the snowblower is kaput. Big Daddy do you want to deliver one to Bloomington?
DeleteHome Depot still has some!
Deletewith the 2-3" yesterday morning, 6-7" over night, and another 3-5" yet to fall, Farmington will end up with 12+". Left for work around 5:45am this morning...hardly a plowed road (even highways) but traffic was a steady flow at 35-45mph. I gather it WILL be worse later in the morning.
ReplyDeleteWhat does everyone have for amounts? I would say about 6 total in Maple Grove/Plymouth. How much are we thinking for the remainder of the storm?
ReplyDeleteI've received around 7.5" here in Burnsville.
ReplyDeleteWith the 1" yesterday and a maybe a little left to fall, we'll probably end up right around 9" for a storm total.
A 2-day total of a solid 9 inches so far in Rosemount!
ReplyDelete2-day total thus far of 8 inches in Golden Valley...maybe another 1-2 to fall yet today.......easily in everyones forecasted range....but the number#1 kudos goes to Novak for the call on Friday and No wavering!
ReplyDeleteKudos to Novak! I believe that Randy (chasetheplains.com) also was pretty spot on. Great job, guys!
DeleteThere was a solid 7-8" in Hopkins when I left the house at 7am. Likely will be another couple more when I get home.
ReplyDeleteHoping the city kid doesn't plow me OUT of my own driveway while I'm at work!
Don't look now but the airport will be above average for snowfall after today.
ReplyDeleteWe could probably go back to some of the comments in posts from a month or two ago and laugh pretty good.
So, are the haters out there happy now? Did you have to alter any travel plans? Would you still call this a bust? Nice job forecasters. Anyone who saw the radar loop from last night saw how rapidly the snow developed last night, just as expected. :) Those who want spring, well it isn't too far away. Plenty of melting in the days ahead.
ReplyDelete8.8" of snow in Inver Grove Heights at 7:30 am Dakota County). 3.5" through midnight and an additional 5.3" since then. Solid 15" of snow on the ground. Should get to double digits by the time I get back home.
ReplyDeleteBill - DC might finally get some snow this year. How would you like to forecast for DC today? They are at 49 degrees and under a Winter Storm Watch. Big bust potential.
Just to clarifiy - the 15" is the current snow depth. Total snow from this storm 8.8" and counting.
DeleteThis should easily keep us snow covered through the end of the month.
Yep, I'm following the DC situation with great curiosity. The Capital Weather Gang is forecasting (last I checked, anyway) 3 to 8 inches just *within* the beltway, which is a 66-mile circle with maybe a 10-mile radius.
DeleteI love the snow!! With the exception of the early December storm, where was this in December and January? February/first of March have been awesome! I have heard murmurs about a possible storm this upcoming weekend. It sounds as though the models are varying greatly on its track.
ReplyDeleteYes I know this storm is still here,but I too have heard this weekend can be "interesting" and were "watching it" as well as "has the potential" to bring us more snow.Thoughts?
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty inexperienced yet with winter weather and haven't looked at this weekend at all, but last I looked and read from various outlets was that the potential was there, but unfortunately we'll have to deal with a tricky temp profile as well as the usual battle with the storm track.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure people who know what they're talking about will chime in soon enough.
This weekend all the models are pretty much hinting at some slop. Rain/snow mix or just rain...maybe even a little freezing rain? It's a few days out so that's just an early look at this moment.
ReplyDeleteThis weekend's storm will feed off of a much warmer environment than today's storm. Since the storm will be pinwheeling out of a southwestern U.S. trough, it will have more than enough time to circulate warm Gulf air into the system. I will be shocked if we get any snow out of this thing & I would expect any accumulations would be well north of us in no. MN & no. WI near Lake Superior.
ReplyDeleteI'm more interested in the weather pattern later next week. An unusually cold Arctic air mass appears poised to ooze into the northern U.S. including the Upper Midwest. This would set the stage for a snowstorm somewhere close to home.
Euro is saying a high of 34 Saturday. More snow?
DeleteAt first blush, it appears that forecasters really nailed this one from the 24-hour advance forecast. To be ticky tack, one could argue that Round 1 was a little less than expected and Round 2 perhaps a bit more but that's really getting picky. However, there were considerably inconsistencies going further back, though Mr. Novak was a steady exception.
ReplyDeleteWhat I'm hearing about this weekends weather(abit of a disconnect from the two different stations):
ReplyDeleteKS95(Dave Dahl radio spot) Saturday: rain/sleet/snow changing to rain.......more snow developing Sunday night into Monday!
WCCO(Mike Lynch):calls Saturday "March Madness" in the weather department,he says rain/freezing rain changing to all snow Saturday evening/night with enough to shovel and plow.
They paint two very different pictures for our weather this weekend,you know what I'm rooting for(whatever gives us the most snow),hey at least weather is coming.What's everyone else's thinking?
I don't catch mike lynch much, but I understand he tends to be aggressive with snow.
DeleteIt looks like potentially heavy rain for the Metro this weekend. I know that it's March and that it's time to transition to spring. Winter isn't going to last forever. Don't get me wrong, I love sunny, warm spring days as much as cold, snowy winter days. It's beautiful outside this morning with all of the fresh snow. I love it!! It's always been very hard for me to see heavy rain fall on top of a beautiful snow covered landscape. It just seems wrong, as silly as that might sound. That might come from the fact that I grew up down South. Whenever it snowed, it melted soon thereafter. Usually, it would snow and then turn to rain. Bad memories! lol I would much prefer a slow moderation in temperatures and a slow steady snow melt instead. Also, a slow melt would substantially eliminate ice jams and flooding. Does anybody else feel the same way or is it just me?
ReplyDeleteNo, it's not just you. I hate seeing it rain on top of snow too. Oh well, such is the way of the seasons.
DeleteI agree with the kudos to Novak and Randy Hill regarding yesterday's storm. I think randyinchamplin should also be included on that list. I think that overall the pro and amateur mets did a pretty good job with the storm.
ReplyDeleteHuttner said 40s for Friday and Saturday. I'm not seeing that anywhere else. Euro is still saying 34 for both days. Wunderground says 36/37.
ReplyDelete40's????,that doesn't sound right,the highest I've seen is 38(TWC),most other outlets are 35-37 for both days,cooling to around 30 for Sunday and Monday,depending on what kind of precip falls this weekend I don't see a major melting going on,yes there will be some with the above freezing temps(but
ReplyDeletenot much above)and the higher sun angle,next week will be mostly all 30's as well,so this snow will be here for awhile,especially if we add to it.Why is everyone thinking rain when some forecasts are saying snow as well?
BTW,weather channel has plain rain and 38 for us Saturday!
TITAN(next named storm) will affect us with both rain and snow,rain to start and snow to finish,amounts?unknown at this time!
ReplyDeleteughhhh... enough with naming every weather pattern already! are we going to start to name sunshine outbreaks as well? the media dives me nuts!
ReplyDeletePlenty of blame for the media, but you can put the naming stuff directly on TWC.
Delete@Disco80,don't get me started about Paul Huttner,he is a model hugger,what I mean about that is he will pick a perticular model and use that heavily to sell his headline,for example when you read his blog today it felt like I will be cutting my grass next weekend with all the mild/warm/spring talk he was throwing out there and then he referenced the GFS and all the 40's it was showing and he highlighted the 52(and even used that in his headline,to draw the reader into his blog) and what I find totally interesting towards the other spectrum is not more then 10 days ago he was trying to sell you on a "Chilly March"(exact headline from 2/25) when he again referenced the so trustworthy GFS and highlighted 3/9 thru 3/15 with temperatures for "highs" in the single digits and teens........funny how he uses the GFS to drive home a point when the dates overlap for both the cold weather coming and the warm weather coming,I ask you fellow readers and readers of his blog daily how can that be trusted when he uses the same model to drive home to different headlines.Didn't Novak mention something about artic air moving down next week?At this point I would trust Novak over Huttner after what I typed above and how Novak nailed the last storm!
ReplyDeleteWell, NWS is saying 37/37 for Fri/Sat.
ReplyDeleteNewest model data still showing a mainly rain event for most of southern and eastern MN and western WI. The best chance for all snow will be after the low passes by and weakens before strengthening again off to the east. Models are handling the deformation zone differently so those details still have to be worked out, but with the rain on top of the snow expect a bunch of slush and slop this weekend. There are some flooding concerns with the rapid melting of the snow combined with the rainfall, frozen ground, and covered storm drains. More details will get worked out as we get closer, but those hoping for this to be all snow will need to be hoping for a pretty significant shift in the track. We'll see if maybe a clap or two of thunder could come along with this storm too.
ReplyDeleteConcerning this weekend. It looks like a mixed bag for sure, just about all types of precip looks likely.
ReplyDeleteTwo concerns that I have. #1 is that the models may be to warm at the surface considering our nice snow pack. While the temps aloft look to be warm enough for rain at times, the models are just above the freezing level at the surface. If they are to warm at the surface we could see more freezing rain.
#2 has to do with the snow fall potential. Currently it looks like the northern trough will drop a bit south just as the the southern trough starts to lift north into a favorable path for heavy snows on the back end for MSP. If that verifies, snowfall should be confined to the SE of the Metro. However if the northern trough slows by six hours or the southern trough ejects out 6 hrs faster, all bets our off.
Difficult forecast for sure.
What I find interesting about this weekend is how the Global Gem handles this. 03/06/0z showed mega snows for MSP on the back side. The 03/06/12z run not so much. But the 03/07/0z run has back end snows being heavy again. At this time I would like to say that it's a outlier as most models take the snow into se MN with advisory snows at best. But the waffling back and forth concerns me.
ReplyDeleteThis weekends forecast is not so cut and dry,there is some definite doubt floating around on what exactly will happen.............with what randyinchamplin mentions above,Huttner says some models forecasting more snow then what was forecasted yesterday and the ultimate uncertainity is the first line of the morning discussion at NWS,they state "very complicated forecast this weekend",I read that as we don't have a grasp of what will happen.Time will tell,thoughts anybody!
ReplyDeleteNovak what you say?will it snow this weekend?will it snow 6+ again before winter is done?
I must say that I'm intrigued with the latest short range model runs, especially the NAM solution. However, I'm anxiously waiting for the 12z Euro's to come in.
ReplyDeleteOne thing appears certain, portions of MN & WI will receive a healthy snowfall this weekend. However, the jury is still out on exactly where. Best bet is a STC to DLH line.
Models are still fluctuating on how the deformation zone will end up playing out. It would be nice to see a consistent signal from the models but that probably won't happen for a couple more days yet. GEM and NAM continue their aggressive looks, the GFS has flip flopped between a fairly narrow band of heavy snow on the back side of the low, to not too much at all. Last nights Euro run showed the low shifting to an open wave and not really having that deformation zone. It does put down some potentially decent snows further north in north central MN. Still a lot in the air on this one as is usually the case with the weather.
ReplyDeleteukmet is also aggressive
DeleteJust posted a new thread for weekend event.
ReplyDelete