Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
Friday, March 15, 2013
Major Sunday/Monday Storm Still on the Horizon
As Tom Novak from Novak Weather explains in this exclusive Minnesota Forecaster video, a buckling jet stream will create a large storm for the Upper Midwest on Sunday night and Monday.
Photo bucket has made some changes let's hope this works as instant weather maps do not allow a direct link. Here is the snowfall forecast through next Tuesday.
Still a lot of uncertainties in regards to the storm on Monday, but tonight's model runs certainly shifted things into a better direction (if you are wanting snow). The surface low track has shifted south by a quite a bit on the GFS and eventually stretches out to meet up with the low coming in from the south before closing off again. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I really feel like this is how the December storm came about. Models showed it north before slowly shifting south...two lows that eventually became one with an inverted trough over the area, and a decent moisture feed (for now). We really need these waves of energy to come ashore so that hopefully the differences in the models can be worked out. Right now they are looking more like strength differences, and how the models handle the two lows. GFS has two definite lows, where the Euro fades the southern one away but keeps the northern one stronger. GEM I would say is somewhere in between, but with the slight edge towards the GFS. The timing of the two pieces of energy are going to be key with this. Loved the presentation by the way you guys. That was fun! I might have to get your Google Plus accounts so I can add you to my list. :) Don't count this storm out yet folks. Nature still has many tricks up her sleeves. On a final note, looking even further ahead into spring, I'm becoming concerned of the severe potential that will exist in the Southern Plains, through the Central Plains into the Ohio River Valley areas. If our snow pack takes a while to go away and our temps respond cooler because of it that will just end up increasing the temp contrast between snow and no snow areas, and that contrast can result in a faster jet stream and bigger storms. We could have that same issue here if the Canadian snows take a while to melt as well. I realize April and May are usually active months for the first areas mentioned above but I'm remembering back to the 2010 winter and how active that following spring was in the south. Don't be surprised if the severe season really cranks up in those areas come mid April. Something to watch I guess. Hopefully it doesn't happen, but there's really no stopping what nature decides to do.
Another winter weather system wasted on rain,currently 33 degrees with moderate rain,oh joy!How many times did it rain this winter?half dozen at least?
Bill/Tom, great job! I really like the idea of putting faces with the names that we always read about on TMF. I also appreciate the weather updates via video! Duane did a good job yesterday with his Youtube video as well. Bill, as a diehard Phillies fan, knowing that you also are from the mid-Atlantic, it pains me to see you wearing a Giants hat!!
I hope Novak is right about snow for the TC Sunday/Monday. The national weather service is now really focusing on central and northern MN for the heavy snow.
This morning, a few different mets have said in regards to Monday storm: "less moisture," "trending north," and "not as impressive". Are they out to lunch?
Sleet/freezing rain/rain mixture has turned over to predominately snow here in Golden Valley about 20 minutes ago........driveway/sidewalks turning white,roads just wet!
Light/steady sleet in Burnsville. The back edge of the precipitation is just west of here. Looks like we won't even see a single snowflake from round one. :(
BTW,Bill and Novak awesome job with your video,its nice to put a face to the names that we always see here,and good to hear the techical side of weather because the TV mets don't have that kind of time. And I echo an earlier post about the wasted precip being rain earlier,now that it has turned to snow its about to end with just a mere dusting,we'll wait and see how the next batch comes in later today....north,south or just over the metro....time will tell! P.S. Bill a Yankee hat would look good on you!just saying.
I don't know how the rest of you in the metro fared this morning, but I know that the southern metro is NOT the place to be if you are a snow lover. The precip has now ended here in the Burnsville area. Yesterday we eeked out half an inch of snow here, and today we topped that by not even getting a single solitary snowflake!! There was no changeover to snow here whatsoever. Instead, we got freezing rain/sleet and icy roads. Whoo hoo, a snow lover's dream come true! I don't know about this afternoon's clipper and the Sunday/Monday storm (though I am feeling less and less optimistic about both of them, especially for us in the southern burbs) but with two clippers down and one clipper and one storm to go we're currently sitting at a robust grand total of a whopping .5 inches of snow! That is just slightly more than we would receive in August! I know that Stillwater/Lake Elmo picked up 4-5 inches of snow yesterday. I noticed that it was snowing in those locations again this morning by 8 a.m. I am wondering how much snow you guys got there this morning? Did anybody in the metro pick up more than a dusting this morning?
In Champlin we had freezing rain/sleet from around 5 AM until about 7:30 AM. At around 7:30 AM it transitioned to sleet/snow. We got about 0.5". Yesterday morning we had about 0.5" of snow while about 5 to 10 miles north there was about 4-5 inches. So close...
National Weather Service has updated its WWA. That 3-5 inches they were harping about earlier today has now been reduced to 1-4 inches. The highest totals are expected to be from I-94 and north. Following up on what someone posted earlier today, it looks like a lot of Metro communities are going to end up with a grand total of maybe an inch of snow from all three clippers combined. And to think that for the past few days all we have heard from the weather service is that everybody should see at least a few inches of snow in total from the clippers. I don't care what anybody says, the national weather service's track record has been pretty poor the past couple of months. They might be able to identify a storm a week away, but their actual local forecasts are nothing but consistently moving targets.
I just noticed that this afternoon in Plymouth/MG area they reduced the snow chance this afternoon to 40% and have forecasted 1-2 for tonight. They also have indicated 1-2 overnight Sunday. Not sure what that means for the approaching storm?! Anyone know how they divide up the timing on their snowfall forecasts?
Does anybody know why there is a winter weather advisory out for an inch of snow? I can understand there being an advisory for the north metro, because that is where they are expecting a few inches.
Oh wow, NWS predicted snow ranges for the NW suburbs for Sunday night Monday. 1-2 and 1-3 respectively. This is turning into a big joke, I can't even believe it.
NWS just put out a graphical cast and their WRONG again,they circle a area of heavier snow and say it will move southeast across the metro,but if you watch the movement of it its moving mainly east across the north metro and north of there,this isnt rocket science when your nowcasting and they still get it wrong,they have been extremely less then stellar all week!
It looks like Anoka county and Washington county are the clear winners again,they have hit the mother load for the highest snowfall over the past 2 days......everybody else not so much and are probably wondering what's all the fuss about the last 2 days......sometimes weather is a fine line and mother nature definitely exhibited that by favoring the north metro the last 2 days!
Another misplaced headline by the NWS,go figure! And the fact that they have still hung onto the WWA in areas that saw just plain rain earlier and not even a flake this evening is pretty unimageable.
The snow has ended. Clipper #3 of 3 is now in the books. The grand total in the Burnsville area from the 3 clippers combined is an awe-inspiring one-half inch!! Giving the week long hype, the snowfall forecasts, the weather advisories, etc...well, the dismal end results speak for themselves.
Novak mentioned "monster",did he not for the POTENTIAL snowstorm late Sunday into Monday,I could be wrong but I thought that's what I heard,so 2-5" currently forecasted doesn't. Look like a monster to me.
Remember way back when the NWS was selling us on 5-13 inches between Thursday and Monday,oh wait that was only 4 days ago,how has that worked out for them? And I'm waiting for the first person to jump down my throat and tell me well the north metro received this and that,then I direct you to the last thread with the weather story depicting all those inches we were SUPPOSE to receive does that look accurate,does it line up with what we have received already and that Monday system is fading fast!
Whew, I had to shovel all of those imaginary inches of snow out of my driveway! I sure am glad the NWS prepared me for that fantasy onslaught. I can't wait to not do it again on Monday.
Re: Monday's "storm": Pat Hammer is calling for 1-4 inches. NWS says 2-4 if I'm reading their forecast right. Watches posted WAY north of the Metro. Quite a bit smaller than previously thought it seems.
@Randyinchamplin how's your precious GEM doing,as of yesterday it was a loner,an outliner in the weather department,because all of the other models were going north of MSP and your GEM was going south,looking at every possible forecast out there nobody cares what your GEM is saying,even the slumping NWS!
So it seems Sunday night/Monday has now become ho-hum,one telling reason is the regular culprits are not chirping,were not hearing from Duane or Randyinchamplin or Randy Hill and ever since Novak claimed a major storm was coming and was going to include MSP in his video not one post,most be still looking for that lost consensus I guess.
All this talk surrounding Monday and even a video by Bill and Novak and this is what the NWS has to say about it: Sunday night: less then one inch Monday: 1-3 inches What a riot and hype! Let me pull out some buzz words I heard over the last few days:major snowfall,high impact,significant,disruptive snowfall,let's not forget b-b-b-blizzard,several inches,3-8 inches,monster.The list goes on,I'll stop the bleeding there though.
Actually 3-8 could still be in the cards couldn't it? At least 3-6. I think more about the couple people who talked about 15-16"+ amounts. That's looking rather silly now.
TWC “Sunny on Sunday and watch out for Monday as we could have significant snow.” No total or even a guess and their site. In print, they show NO snow on Sunday with Monday showing “AM snow” with clearing on Monday night. NO accumulation totals mentioned in print. Kare11 morning Jensen says “Snow storm on Monday mostly in the north” “Snow in the metro in the a.m” Cold and windy. NO accumulations mentioned. Kare 11 Jerrid Sebesta at 1:50pm says “As much as 1" to 4" of snow is possible in the Twin Cities with heavier amounts like in central and northern “ Finally a guess at the total. MNPLOWCO
@Randyinchamplin so what's your forecast?,now that were nearing 24hrs out,going to follow your GEM(which goes south of MSP still)or fall inline with the models heading north of us?
Sam and Anon@ 11:11am, sorry for the late response, just got a look at the 12z and 18z data. Let me start by saying the Gem has had the northern wave, north of MSP for the last 2 days or so, but the difference is that it phases with the southern energy just in time, maybe bringing 5-8" close to the metro. The 12z GFS was showing about 3" for the metro, the 18z run now has 5-8" as the system phases, bring more precip into the southern part of the storm. The 17/0z runs will be fun to watch.
I know many of you have lost faith in the NWS and even said their in a slump,but the beauty of weather is it never stops and you always have a chance to redeem yourself,what's the saying...."your as good as your last forecast"....well the NWS is at it again and they have some fresh updates,2 items of interest are: -Blizzard watches up for west central MN,one row of counties away from the metro -weather story snowfall updated,now has metro core in the 3-5 band,previously we were in the 2-3 band.
I sense more changes coming after what Randyinchamplin posted!
Photo bucket has made some changes let's hope this works as instant weather maps do not allow a direct link. Here is the snowfall forecast through next Tuesday.
ReplyDeletehttp://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_108gifGFS13-15-0z_zpsbe9b6b8e.gif
Here is the surface map for Monday night showing just the isobars. This looks like 20-30 mile a hour sustained wind with gusts in 35 to 40.
ReplyDeletehttp://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/USA_PRMSL_msl_096gifsurfacepressuemap_zps26fefca0.gif
Can anyone say the B word??
Those are tightly packed isobars and represent winds, the tighter packed they are the higher the winds.
DeleteStill a lot of uncertainties in regards to the storm on Monday, but tonight's model runs certainly shifted things into a better direction (if you are wanting snow). The surface low track has shifted south by a quite a bit on the GFS and eventually stretches out to meet up with the low coming in from the south before closing off again. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I really feel like this is how the December storm came about. Models showed it north before slowly shifting south...two lows that eventually became one with an inverted trough over the area, and a decent moisture feed (for now). We really need these waves of energy to come ashore so that hopefully the differences in the models can be worked out. Right now they are looking more like strength differences, and how the models handle the two lows. GFS has two definite lows, where the Euro fades the southern one away but keeps the northern one stronger. GEM I would say is somewhere in between, but with the slight edge towards the GFS. The timing of the two pieces of energy are going to be key with this. Loved the presentation by the way you guys. That was fun! I might have to get your Google Plus accounts so I can add you to my list. :) Don't count this storm out yet folks. Nature still has many tricks up her sleeves. On a final note, looking even further ahead into spring, I'm becoming concerned of the severe potential that will exist in the Southern Plains, through the Central Plains into the Ohio River Valley areas. If our snow pack takes a while to go away and our temps respond cooler because of it that will just end up increasing the temp contrast between snow and no snow areas, and that contrast can result in a faster jet stream and bigger storms. We could have that same issue here if the Canadian snows take a while to melt as well. I realize April and May are usually active months for the first areas mentioned above but I'm remembering back to the 2010 winter and how active that following spring was in the south. Don't be surprised if the severe season really cranks up in those areas come mid April. Something to watch I guess. Hopefully it doesn't happen, but there's really no stopping what nature decides to do.
ReplyDeleteAnother winter weather system wasted on rain,currently 33 degrees with moderate rain,oh joy!How many times did it rain this winter?half dozen at least?
ReplyDeleteBill/Tom, great job! I really like the idea of putting faces with the names that we always read about on TMF. I also appreciate the weather updates via video! Duane did a good job yesterday with his Youtube video as well. Bill, as a diehard Phillies fan, knowing that you also are from the mid-Atlantic, it pains me to see you wearing a Giants hat!!
ReplyDeleteI may wear a different hat for each presentation -- at least for a while. I have Orioles and Nationals hats, but no Phillies.
DeleteIs anybody in the Metro seeing snow yet? It's 31 degrees and freezing rain in Burnsville.
ReplyDeleteI hope Novak is right about snow for the TC Sunday/Monday. The national weather service is now really focusing on central and northern MN for the heavy snow.
ReplyDeleteThe daycare parking lot at 7:15am was a SKATING RINK this morning in the Hopkins/SLP area. Temp was 32 degrees on the truck thermometer.
ReplyDeleteStill freezing drizzle (31 degrees) in Rosemount
ReplyDeleteIn maple grove, a few flakes are mixing in and the pavement in the parking lot is getting white.
ReplyDeleteThis morning, a few different mets have said in regards to Monday storm: "less moisture," "trending north," and "not as impressive". Are they out to lunch?
ReplyDeleteWhy would you assume their out to lunch,maybe Novak is out to lunch?
DeleteIts going to snow, just how much is the question? A bigger story might be the snow/wind combination and the cold nights ahead.
DeleteSleet/freezing rain/rain mixture has turned over to predominately snow here in Golden Valley about 20 minutes ago........driveway/sidewalks turning white,roads just wet!
ReplyDeleteYep, snowflakes in Minnetonka, starting to "dust"
DeleteMNPLOWCO
Steady freezing rain/sleet in Farmington
ReplyDeleteAll snow, light but steady, in St. Paul.
ReplyDeleteLight/steady sleet in Burnsville. The back edge of the precipitation is just west of here. Looks like we won't even see a single snowflake from round one. :(
ReplyDeleteBTW,Bill and Novak awesome job with your video,its nice to put a face to the names that we always see here,and good to hear the techical side of weather because the TV mets don't have that kind of time.
ReplyDeleteAnd I echo an earlier post about the wasted precip being rain earlier,now that it has turned to snow its about to end with just a mere dusting,we'll wait and see how the next batch comes in later today....north,south or just over the metro....time will tell!
P.S. Bill a Yankee hat would look good on you!just saying.
I don't know how the rest of you in the metro fared this morning, but I know that the southern metro is NOT the place to be if you are a snow lover. The precip has now ended here in the Burnsville area. Yesterday we eeked out half an inch of snow here, and today we topped that by not even getting a single solitary snowflake!! There was no changeover to snow here whatsoever. Instead, we got freezing rain/sleet and icy roads. Whoo hoo, a snow lover's dream come true! I don't know about this afternoon's clipper and the Sunday/Monday storm (though I am feeling less and less optimistic about both of them, especially for us in the southern burbs) but with two clippers down and one clipper and one storm to go we're currently sitting at a robust grand total of a whopping .5 inches of snow! That is just slightly more than we would receive in August! I know that Stillwater/Lake Elmo picked up 4-5 inches of snow yesterday. I noticed that it was snowing in those locations again this morning by 8 a.m. I am wondering how much snow you guys got there this morning? Did anybody in the metro pick up more than a dusting this morning?
ReplyDeleteFrustrated Snow Fan, don't look now but I just drove through Burnsville and it was raining!
DeleteLooks like you poor folks down Burnsville way will be pretty much left out of the snow again this evening....
DeleteIn Champlin we had freezing rain/sleet from around 5 AM until about 7:30 AM. At around 7:30 AM it transitioned to sleet/snow. We got about 0.5". Yesterday morning we had about 0.5" of snow while about 5 to 10 miles north there was about 4-5 inches. So close...
ReplyDeleteNational Weather Service has updated its WWA. That 3-5 inches they were harping about earlier today has now been reduced to 1-4 inches. The highest totals are expected to be from I-94 and north. Following up on what someone posted earlier today, it looks like a lot of Metro communities are going to end up with a grand total of maybe an inch of snow from all three clippers combined. And to think that for the past few days all we have heard from the weather service is that everybody should see at least a few inches of snow in total from the clippers. I don't care what anybody says, the national weather service's track record has been pretty poor the past couple of months. They might be able to identify a storm a week away, but their actual local forecasts are nothing but consistently moving targets.
ReplyDeleteI just noticed that this afternoon in Plymouth/MG area they reduced the snow chance this afternoon to 40% and have forecasted 1-2 for tonight. They also have indicated 1-2 overnight Sunday. Not sure what that means for the approaching storm?! Anyone know how they divide up the timing on their snowfall forecasts?
DeleteDoes anybody know why there is a winter weather advisory out for an inch of snow? I can understand there being an advisory for the north metro, because that is where they are expecting a few inches.
ReplyDeleteOh wow, NWS predicted snow ranges for the NW suburbs for Sunday night Monday. 1-2 and 1-3 respectively. This is turning into a big joke, I can't even believe it.
ReplyDeleteSnow has started up again here in Golden Valley,let's see how this plays out...cuz the look of things it may stay mostly in the north metro again!
ReplyDeleteNWS just put out a graphical cast and their WRONG again,they circle a area of heavier snow and say it will move southeast across the metro,but if you watch the movement of it its moving mainly east across the north metro and north of there,this isnt rocket science when your nowcasting and they still get it wrong,they have been extremely less then stellar all week!
ReplyDeleteIt does not look good for snow. Or at least anything that's sticking (building) on the hard.
DeleteMNPOWCO
It looks like Anoka county and Washington county are the clear winners again,they have hit the mother load for the highest snowfall over the past 2 days......everybody else not so much and are probably wondering what's all the fuss about the last 2 days......sometimes weather is a fine line and mother nature definitely exhibited that by favoring the north metro the last 2 days!
ReplyDeleteAs she will again Sunday/Monday...
DeleteAnother misplaced headline by the NWS,go figure!
ReplyDeleteAnd the fact that they have still hung onto the WWA in areas that saw just plain rain earlier and not even a flake this evening is pretty unimageable.
My thoughts exactly!!! Unbelievable...and unreliable!
DeleteAgree! The NWS is in a slump.
DeleteWell, almost done here in Minnetonka. A big 1/4 inch at best.
ReplyDelete"No plow with the snow plows"
MNPLOWCO
It kind of makes one wonder how badly the NWS is going to blow the Sunday/Monday forecast....
ReplyDeleteHalf inch max in Minneapolis.
ReplyDeleteCurrently at two inches for the day at 7 miles north of Hudson.
ReplyDeleteThe snow has ended. Clipper #3 of 3 is now in the books. The grand total in the Burnsville area from the 3 clippers combined is an awe-inspiring one-half inch!! Giving the week long hype, the snowfall forecasts, the weather advisories, etc...well, the dismal end results speak for themselves.
ReplyDeleteNovak mentioned "monster",did he not for the POTENTIAL snowstorm late Sunday into Monday,I could be wrong but I thought that's what I heard,so 2-5" currently forecasted doesn't. Look like a monster to me.
ReplyDeleteRemember way back when the NWS was selling us on 5-13 inches between Thursday and Monday,oh wait that was only 4 days ago,how has that worked out for them?
ReplyDeleteAnd I'm waiting for the first person to jump down my throat and tell me well the north metro received this and that,then I direct you to the last thread with the weather story depicting all those inches we were SUPPOSE to receive does that look accurate,does it line up with what we have received already and that Monday system is fading fast!
Whew, I had to shovel all of those imaginary inches of snow out of my driveway! I sure am glad the NWS prepared me for that fantasy onslaught. I can't wait to not do it again on Monday.
DeleteRe: Monday's "storm": Pat Hammer is calling for 1-4 inches. NWS says 2-4 if I'm reading their forecast right. Watches posted WAY north of the Metro. Quite a bit smaller than previously thought it seems.
ReplyDelete@Randyinchamplin how's your precious GEM doing,as of yesterday it was a loner,an outliner in the weather department,because all of the other models were going north of MSP and your GEM was going south,looking at every possible forecast out there nobody cares what your GEM is saying,even the slumping NWS!
ReplyDeletenice pun
DeleteSo it seems Sunday night/Monday has now become ho-hum,one telling reason is the regular culprits are not chirping,were not hearing from Duane or Randyinchamplin or Randy Hill and ever since Novak claimed a major storm was coming and was going to include MSP in his video not one post,most be still looking for that lost consensus I guess.
ReplyDeleteAll this talk surrounding Monday and even a video by Bill and Novak and this is what the NWS has to say about it:
ReplyDeleteSunday night: less then one inch
Monday: 1-3 inches
What a riot and hype! Let me pull out some buzz words I heard over the last few days:major snowfall,high impact,significant,disruptive snowfall,let's not forget b-b-b-blizzard,several inches,3-8 inches,monster.The list goes on,I'll stop the bleeding there though.
Actually 3-8 could still be in the cards couldn't it? At least 3-6. I think more about the couple people who talked about 15-16"+ amounts. That's looking rather silly now.
DeleteTWC “Sunny on Sunday and watch out for Monday as we could have significant snow.” No total or even a guess and their site. In print, they show NO snow on Sunday with Monday showing “AM snow” with clearing on Monday night. NO accumulation totals mentioned in print.
DeleteKare11 morning Jensen says “Snow storm on Monday mostly in the north” “Snow in the metro in the a.m” Cold and windy. NO accumulations mentioned. Kare 11 Jerrid Sebesta at 1:50pm says “As much as 1" to 4" of snow is possible in the Twin Cities with heavier amounts like in central and northern “ Finally a guess at the total.
MNPLOWCO
Actually TWC says "1-2 inches". Lowest I've seen so far.
DeleteYep, it now says 1"
DeleteMNPLOWCO
Looks like Monday's "storm" for the Metro is over before it even got started. Ho hum, surprise, surprise....Let's fast forward to Spring now.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it won't be a white 40th for me on April 10th after all...
ReplyDelete@Randyinchamplin so what's your forecast?,now that were nearing 24hrs out,going to follow your GEM(which goes south of MSP still)or fall inline with the models heading north of us?
ReplyDeleteSam and Anon@ 11:11am, sorry for the late response, just got a look at the 12z and 18z data. Let me start by saying the Gem has had the northern wave, north of MSP for the last 2 days or so, but the difference is that it phases with the southern energy just in time, maybe bringing 5-8" close to the metro. The 12z GFS was showing about 3" for the metro, the 18z run now has 5-8" as the system phases, bring more precip into the southern part of the storm. The 17/0z runs will be fun to watch.
DeleteI know many of you have lost faith in the NWS and even said their in a slump,but the beauty of weather is it never stops and you always have a chance to redeem yourself,what's the saying...."your as good as your last forecast"....well the NWS is at it again and they have some fresh updates,2 items of interest are:
ReplyDelete-Blizzard watches up for west central MN,one row of counties away from the metro
-weather story snowfall updated,now has metro core in the 3-5 band,previously we were in the 2-3 band.
I sense more changes coming after what Randyinchamplin posted!
Looking at the forecast for this upcoming week... I will not be looking forward to the cold.
ReplyDeleteLooks like this snap needs a name. Perhaps " Back to January ", maybe?