After getting through possible late-spring frost this weekend, forecasters were noting the possibility of 90 or higher for Tuesday. Here's a new thread for those who want to discuss the possible record warmth, starting with some comments from Randy in Champlain, one of our prize contributors:
Looking at the dew point fields that both the ECMWF and GFS are portraying for Tues at or around 65°to 70°, I wonder if that can be right as relative humidity levels at 925 and 850 mb are less than 50%. Looking deeper the 850-925mb wind fields seem to originate from the Sonora region into west TX and along the lee side of the Rockies as apposed to coming up from the gulf.
This could impact the high temps in a rather dramatic way for Tuesday. If the models are right and we see 65 dews I would expect surface temps to be at or around 90°. However I suspect the Dews will be around 58° and that could allow the surface temps to reach 95°+ which would put us in record territory as the high temp for May 14 is 95°.
So to Tom,Duane and Hammer what are your thoughts?? Oh by the way Tuesday looks to be severely capped by the warm temps aloft.
Today's task: remount the window unit a/c.
ReplyDeletePatchy frost Monday morning...near 90 Tuesday. Bizarre.
ReplyDeleteI'm just as excited about a 90 degree high as I am for a trip to the dentist for a root canal, I knew this day had to get here sooner or later....thank God this heat is only for one day!.....
ReplyDeleteI enjoyed the brief SNOW bursts earlier this afternoon here in Rosemount! A run at 90+ on Tuesday. This must be Minnesota!!
ReplyDeletelooking at what the models this morning were forecasting for dews today out west of us in the 55-60° as opposed to what verified in the upper 40's to very low 50's, I think the record high for tomorrow is in jeopardy. I will go with a high temp for 05/14/2013 of 97°
ReplyDeleteBut what really gets my attention is the severe weather threat for next weekend
ReplyDeleteGo on...
ReplyDeletePretty tough to be reaching record territory today or even 90+ when clouds are increasing and a line of rain is dropping in from the north.Busted forecast?, no one mentioned rain during the morning/midday.
ReplyDeleteClouds will clear out by early afternoon ... I highly doubt the forecast will bust.
ReplyDeleteHeat go away.
ReplyDeleteGreat job Randyinchamplin with predicting the record high of 98 we incurred yesterday.....though I didn't like it and glad its over.....also looking ahead next Tuesday looks chilly for May standards....maybe 20 degrees below average!
ReplyDeleteYesterday was our earliest 98. We have never reached that temperature this early in the year. The next high early temp is 99 on 5/22/1925.
ReplyDeleteI like how the bust trolls showed up. Again. Like clockwork.
ReplyDeleteyup those clouds that showed up in the morning were progged by the models, they were just 50 miles or so further south than what was expected and all modeling showed them being kicked out by 1pm or so allowing strong heating to take place.
DeleteAt big daddy! thanks! I have my share of bust's, but this one looked kind of obvious to me.
p are you the troll patrol? Or is it that you don't like the word "bust".
DeleteAs far as severe weather is concerned for this weekend, I had planed to study the models tonight to get a idea of what may happen, but I got caught up with what was happening in TX. Radar returns were showing a large wedge tornado south of the Dallas Fort Worth area that was very wide and storm spotters reported a mile wide tornado. Radar returns were very strong.....My thoughts and prayers go out to those that lost their belongings and worse yet, I never want to see that kind of signal up here.
ReplyDeleteI will study the severe potential tomorrow night after I get off work, however just a quick peek of the upper level jet leads me to think that Sunday seems to be interesting as se MN gets into the left front quadrant. Although there seems to be some divergence on Friday and Saturday, it just depends on how the surface low reacts to it.
Likely tornado near Windom, MN right now. Closest radar site is down. Doh!!
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, most of you that visit this site know I'm amateur weather geek, for what I'm about to say you may want to consult your favorite pro forecaster, weather that be the NWS or a media outlet.
ReplyDeleteWithout boring you with meteorological details it seems like most of SE MN may be under the gun for Sunday night, that includes the Metro. All modes of severe weather will be possible IMO, most of the models show elevated Energy Helicity Index numbers for se MN, however the NAM does not. Energy = instability, Helicity = spin. I'm throwing the Nam under the bus. I hope most of local mets are not relaying on the Nam as they often do.
So here is what the mid afternoon AFD (05/18) from the NWS MPX said.
"SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN WITH CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN
WHICH WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE WHILE MOVING NE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND LITTLE CONVECTION
OCCURRING. THAT IS LIKELY TO CHANGE DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AND BY EVENING ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL WI. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
WITH NEARLY 500 J/KG BEING HAIL CAPE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS BEST
(30-40 KNOTS) ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...0-1KM SHEAR INCREASES TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS ACROSS CENTRAL MN WITH SFC-3KM CAPE OVER 150 J/KG
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT."
I completely agree with this outlook. I would strongly suggest that peeps monitor the Storm Predictions website between 1pm and 4 pm for any MD's (mesocale discussion's) you can find it here.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
stay safe
Thanks, Randy. I'm too lazy to set up a new thread. Perhaps I can do that tomorrow if the situation warrants.
ReplyDeleteHow about now?
DeleteTornado watch!
First mesoscale discussion is out for the MPX county warned area.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0695.html
Things sure escalated quickly...
ReplyDelete...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN SEDGWICK COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM CDT...
...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR WICHITA...
AT 345 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE...VIOLENT AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF WICHITA...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.
IMPACT...YOU COULD BE KILLED IF NOT UNDERGROUND OR IN A TORNADO
SHELTER. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF NEIGHBORHOODS...BUSINESSES
AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO
PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
Hi everyone, just curious if straight line winds could have caused the damage at my grandma's in cannon falls. A couple of big evergreens got uprooted, another one split in half, massive branches off of other trees, all the lawn furniture was tossed at least 50 feet.
ReplyDeleteWith each model run that comes in, I continue to become more and more concerned about the severe threat that could be coming between Wednesday and Friday this coming week. It is too early to really pinpoint things down as far as exact locations and timing, but given the pattern set up that is coming and some very impressive jet stream winds that are forecast to set up, I do believe there is going to be the potential for quite the severe weather set up as we get towards the second part of the coming week. In fact, I do believe that Minnesota will see their first real significant severe weather event, including tornadoes. If for some reason the tornadoes don't occur, the straight line winds are also concerning to me, given the fact that strong low level jet winds will be howling overhead and won't have far to mix down to the surface if we get a good microburst with any storms. There are still several model runs to go and things certainly will change, but we do need to keep a close eye on the second half of the week.
ReplyDeleteHey Duane...now that we're approaching the mid point of the week, I'd love to hear your thoughts (and others of course too!) on the impending severe weather.
DeleteAre you more/less/equally concerned about Wed-Fri as you were when you made the post last Saturday?
Thanks!
It is still a concern for me, but there are so many question marks still with how things will play out. Any time you get storms to fire along a warm front (which will be the case on Wednesday) the risk for rotating storms is there. Warm fronts are good tornado producers. The biggest question mark, and always seems to be a question mark around here, is how much sunlight we see during the day to destabilize things. If clouds get out of here early enough and we build up some heat then it could be a pretty active afternoon and evening. If we stay in the murk, then things won't be as bad. The heavy rain potential is certainly going to be there though over the next several days so now it's just a waiting game. SPC is focused on the dryline area in the central plains, but don't be surprised to see a few impressive supercells along the warm front if we see enough clearing during the day.
DeleteIt seems to me that about a week ago the weather service was calling for a very rainy week in the Twin Cities with a total of several inches of rain. Maybe it's me, but it seems that it has been more cloudy than anything. The rain seems to have been stuck in Iowa. I see this morning that the weather service appears to be backing off on the thunderstorm threat today in the Twin Cities as well. Has the warm front basically not moved as quickly as the weather service thought a few days ago? Have the low pressure areas taken a more southern route than originally expected?
ReplyDeleteThe warm front has had a very difficult time getting this far north, that should end by this afternoon. There are indications from many of the short term convection allowing models, (referred to as cams) that want to bring some convection very near the metro mid to late after noon. Just about everyone in MPX's county warned area may want to be aware of their surroundings. Wish I could watch this play out, but work calls.
ReplyDeleteI have the birds-eye view from 26 stories up downtown, and the sun has been shining brightly for at least the past couple hours. Should help touch off a few t-storms later today!
ReplyDeleteBusted forecast for the metro. Nothing much going on.
ReplyDeleteWell it was a slight risk. All it was was a 15% chance of severe hail and rain within 25 miles of any point. There was severe wind reports NW and SE of the metro. I'd argue it wasn't really that much of a bust.
ReplyDeleteIt was a bust because it was boring :)
ReplyDeleteHow many times have we been smack-dab in the middle of SLGT and gotten a pretty sunset? A lot. There wasn't even a capped inversion over MSP as of 6.00pm.
Any thoughts on Friday? We have a Carnival at our school (I'm on the PTA) and it's supposed to be outside. What's the likelihood that we will need to set up indoors instead?
ReplyDeleteI would love any thoughts on Friday's weather. Our carnival is scheduled for 5:30-8. Is it just too risky to have it outside???
Deletewith the cold front approaching tomorrow, I would lean on "plan b". Wx is setting up for strong to margially severe storms two hours either side of the dinner hour.
DeleteAre you not familiar with online weather??
Deletehttp://bit.ly/11b4X7g
Let me tell you what I love about this weather,the NWS isn't forecasting a high above 70 for the next week......how beautiful!!......every cool day is one less hot day we can experience this time of year.
ReplyDeleteT-storms in the forecast for the weekend...will it be anything entertaining or worth being concerned about (severe)? Or just garden variety?
ReplyDeleteBill: It looks like the weekend of June 21st-23rd is setting up for our first real chance at severe weather, the models are looking interesting, some are showing warm front convection followed up 24hrs later with cold front convection. If the models continue to show this say by Tues....I think a new thread may be needed, at any rate it looks like warm temps will come in with dews around 65-70. Our first real summer time pattern seems to be on our doorstep. I am not sure how you feel about doing a video forecast with Tom when it comes to severe, but you may want to consider it.
ReplyDeleteFrom the HWO from MPX dated 06/15 at 10:05 pm.
ReplyDelete"AFTER SEVERAL DRY DAYS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH FUTURE OUTLOOKS.
Thanks, Randy. It would be good if we can do a video forecast with Tom. Let's see how the week progresses.
ReplyDeleteI'm hoping more people post their thoughts as the weekend nears, I'd hate to see this site die off in the summer months when, personally, I care much more about potential severe weather than I do winter storms.
ReplyDeleteLooks like Thursday may be the start of an active weekend as the Twin Cities are in a slight risk and the SPC has been talking about the general area in the D4-D8 discussions (although none highlighted) for at least a couple days now. So I would love to hear thoughts from all the usual contributors here.
Looks like the NWS is starting to gain confidence in strong/severe storms for Thurs-Sat in MN. Would LOVE to get some additional insights from the great folks on here.
ReplyDeleteWe'll be up at the lake this weekend, so should have a great vantage point of the western sky to watch them roll through!
CAPE is looking decent on GFS for tomorrow evening:
Deletebit.ly/10xzIIO
But the question is whether CIN will prevent instability. Right now CIN for the same model run isn't looking great for thunderstorms:
bit.ly/10xA2Yb
I think this site needs a new thread or maybe we need a new blog for people who are interested in Minnesota summer weather.
Yep, time for a new thread. I always find it more challenging to present an assessment for summer weather because, with the exception of heat waves, thunderstorms are so hit and miss. Of course large severe weather outbreaks are probably a different story. I will set up a new thread. Also, I will be doing a video later tonight with Tom Novak to discuss the situation.
ReplyDelete