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| Big t-storms blossom to the west in the Dakotas. |
Thursday, June 20, 2013
MCS Seen Headed This Way
Most forecasters see the potential for big storms coming through Minnesota later tonight. Tom Novak weighs in on this possibility in our latest Google Hangout. What's an MCS you may ask? A mesoscale convective system -- some big words to explain big storms.
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Well, the system is still marching across Wisconsin. Can we officially call it a derecho?
ReplyDeletePower out in several communties on my way home this morning,no street lights working.......trees down in Robbinsdale,New Hope,Golden Valley,St.Louis Park area......MCS rolled in between 2-4 am with pea to marble size hail and a very windy event watched the whole thing play out under an awning in Eden Praire....NWS says next three nights should be the same thing.
ReplyDeleteLooking like another wicked night for the Twin Cities. Here's the HRRR for 1:15am our time:
ReplyDeletehttp://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRRsubh/for_web/hrrr_jet_subh/2013062118/t2/cref15min_t2sfc_f1215.png
MCS #2 just rolled through here two hours ago... looking at radar, it appears another line of storms is coming, perhaps a third one. Should be here by midnight- one am...
ReplyDeleteYep.....MCS #2 wasn't kind to us here in Golden Valley......power is out and a neighbors tree is down in my yard falling on my girls play struture(they won't be happy to see that in the morning),same tree fell on power lines,exposing them....what fun!......and were suppose to go thru this another 2 or 3 more days,can hardly wait!!
ReplyDeleteThey reported on the a.m. news that 22% of the state is without power as a result of last night’s storms. It could take until Tuesday before everyone’s power is restored. :-(
ReplyDeleteWhat's in our weather cards today?
ReplyDeleteMore of the same,Ruth.....storms will fire out west and move east.....the sun popping out this afternoon and warming the atmosphere is not good,I would be sky aware this evening and overnight.
DeleteDrove around town earlier alot of power outages still,example Costco in St.Louis Park had employees out in the parking lot holding up "temporaily closed" signs,Home Depot in the same parking lot has their back-up generators running for the cash registers but the store is in overall darkness except for the natural light but they are open to the public.......huge trees down everywhere on houses,cars and fences in the Golden Valley,New Hope,St louis Park area......quite the storm for it not being a tornado....I heard at one point Excel Energy had 505,000 customers without power(I'm one of them)when was the last time that number was that high?
For those of you whose power has been restored, are you seeing any brownouts? I've had at least three since we were restored yesterday afternoon.
ReplyDeleteWish we had brownouts,still seating in the dark since 7pm Friday.......I'm hopeful for today since I'm seeing crews in the area!.....NWS says dry weather till tommorrow afternoon so that should be helpful for the crews as well.
DeleteI haven't had any brownouts since about 6am Sunday. Actually, they were more like transient outages, where the power was completely cut for a split second, which does weird things to my central A/C.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, more hairy weather is on tap tomorrow. We're back in 30% risk. I'm not looking forward to it. We don't need any more rain, and we sure as hell don't need any more wind. I wonder if the widespread outages this weekend are partially the result of the huge storm that blew thru early Friday morning. In other words, I bet the first storm weakened a lot of trees, and then Friday evening's storm came and finished them off.
In related news, Xcel Energy's share price is off $0.25 (0.89%) this morning :)
Big spread on July 4th temps. Weather Underground at 73 to Timeanddate.com at 86. Do we wear jackets or shorts to watch the fireworks?
ReplyDeleteThoughts on the storms this PM?! Sounds like we might be in for an active night!
ReplyDeleteLooks like the most activity will be southeast of here, toward Madison and Milwaukee. There's a mesoscale discussion out for the four-state border region of MN/WI/IA/IL.
ReplyDeleteI hope everyone that reads this has power, it's going to be uncomfortable evening into the overnight. I just checked the observed soundings (real time balloon data), and MPX is not only capped at 7000mb (temps at 10.4°C) the dew point is very dry, at -6.60°C. Comparing that to Aberdeen SD real time data, it shows a stronger cap at 700mb with temps 11° but also it's more moist at that level with dew points at +1.0. That means that there is some kind of boundry between here and there, expect that the storms coming down from the Dakotas will stay west of the metro. Something has to wash the strong dew points out, I expect the day 2 outlook when it goes to Day 1 at 06/26 to include the metro in the slight risk area.
ReplyDeleteConcerning convection for 07/09. I completely agree with the SPC Day one outlook. A hail risk that is hatched, overlaid with the 30% risk of winds over 58mph could result in hail greater than 2" that is wind driven, where that enhanced risk will be is unknown at this time, but it very well may include the metro. Yuk.
ReplyDeleteDoes the severe weather risk for this upcoming weekend warrant a new post and some discussion? Or are we looking at more garden variety summer storms with very few bells and whistles (ie hail and wind)?
ReplyDeleteWhat the heck happened overnight? 4.5" in my gauge at 7 AM. Started around 3:20 AM. 42 & 18 near Prior Lake.
ReplyDeleteHoly water deluge Batman! We had 5 inches in our rain gauge here in central Bloomington... now we might have a some splash back in there from the roof but that's still a ton of rain.
ReplyDeleteWe had 5.4 inches in the gauge in Hopkins! GREAT thunder cracks too...I didn't even mind getting woken up!
ReplyDeleteConcerning Thursday 7/18. It's to early to get really specific, so take this with a large amount of salt, things will change of course but this Is my best guess at what will happen. The most likely area to see severe storms will be from the north metro and points north to Duluth. As the cool front approaches, wind fields from the surface to 850mb's will from the SW and will be close to parallel in respect to the cool front. The wind aloft will come from the west and be more perpendicular to the front. There may be some rotating updrafts aloft, but without S to SE winds in the lower levels I think the tornado threat, although not zero will be somewhat minimal. Biggest threat in the near term as the storms approach will be strong winds, and depending at where the freezing level is, large hail. Having said that because the lower level winds will be parallel to the front, I am very concerned about flash flooding, as the front may stall out.
ReplyDeleteI agree with many of your comments Randy. However, I don't believe that the front will stall. Because of this, I'm not worried about flooding rains, esp. in so. MN. In contrast, I believe that much of so. MN may be capped heading into THUR night. This may keep many areas so. of the I-94 corridor dry with little action into FRI am.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I am concerned about a significant severe weather outbreak no. of the I-94 corridor. The Lakes Country of central/northern MN & nw WI need to keep a close eye to the sky during much of the pm hours on THUR. This area will reside near a strong warm frontal boundary where boundary layer winds will turn more SE than SW. This would enhance the twist in our atmosphere and the risk for supercells. Plus, areas north of MSP will be closer to the stronger upper level winds. Certainly something to keep an eye on.
MSP will need to hope that some of those strong storms develop towards the SW overnight THUR & into early FRI am.
I see the spc has put a 30% hatched area over nw MN, that is where the nam is depicting some backing of the low level winds. I'm not buying into that much as I'm having a hard time finding many global models, at any rate time to go to work, it will be interesting to see what unfolds.
DeleteBig Daddy.....you may be in for the summer of your dreams.....
ReplyDeleteLooking at the ECMWF, GFS and the Gem at the 500mb height, it becomes obvious over the next 10-16 days that the current pattern will continue. The sub-tropical ridge will remain stubbornly in place to our south. While at the same time the northern jet will be responsible for running disturbances just to our north through southern Canada. As each of those low pressure system's pass to our east, the ridge will build into the Northern Plain states of South and North Dakota warming those areas up, but just as it appears that the ridge will try to move to the east, it will once again be beaten down by yet another disturbance passing just to our north. This should act to put us in a zonal flow (winds aloft out of the west) and at times out of the NW. Look for temps to be at our below normal, with very little chance of a period above normal temps.
So what could change this pattern before the end August? In my opinion only one thing and that's a tropical storm. While no models are showing much there is this little storm out in the Atlantic named Dorian. Many forecaster have predicated that Dorian would be dead by now, but as I type this, the Hurricane Hunters are either wheels up or close to it as the NHC has decided to investigate it. IF it should stay alive and get into the Gulf coast the subtropical ridge could be lifted north. Yet on the other hand if it survives and move up the east coast it would enhance our chances of below normal temps.
If it dies and doesn't effect the US or eastern coastal waters, the same pattern we are seeing will continue.
It seems as though we have been on the northern side of the heat all summer with only once or twice the ridge coming north of us. How common is this? If it holds does it moderate the fall or make it colder sooner?
ReplyDeleteWe have a tornado watch in effect,and the NWS on their discussion speak of golf-ball size hail and 60mph winds and we have no discussion or a new thread.
ReplyDeleteIs all we care about is winter here, is that the reason for only 2 non-winter threads this year?
Yea, our main interest is winter weather. We're more into the evaluation of longer-term developing patterns (i.e., winter storms) than more fickle/feast-or-famine storms. Sorry.
DeleteThats a shame, you missed the boat/discussion big time on this one! Golf ball to baseball size hail here in Richfield and no power with serious hail damage to cars and roofs.
DeleteYeah I'm abit disappointed there was no discussion leading up to this event, seems like in the past people on here look forward to severe weather, yet we didn't hear anything from the regulars. Yeah the boat was missed!
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