Folks -- throw this map out and 'unremember' from your memory. It was a WSI 12z RPM model run that is used by WCCO and most other stations using the TruVu Max wx graphics system. It was WAY out to lunch on these values. Don't like to criticize anyone on-air as I know the workflow they go through with tv, etc., but this one should not have been posted online or on-air as it was clearly very inaccurate rather than just a 'potential' forecast. It happens -- a crazy forecast w/no time or whatever to QC before posting or showing in a Max Hit on-air. Don't be too hard on them. Based on the feedback per Twitter, Matt B. will probably make sure things are in check. Stuff happens.
Per the correct NWS wind chill chart (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/windchill/index.shtml) it would have to be -10F and 60 mph winds at 8am here in the Twin Cities for example. The -70F value in Brainerd and other numbers -- out to lunch as well.
I know it will be cold, but not quite this cold. :)
How the hell is it 44 right now? ......no one forecasted it to get this warm! Also how is it that we warmed to 40 yesterday and now mid 40's today with all this snowcover......I always hear that temperatures struggle to warm when there is a deep snowcover.....yet look at the past two days.....I could only image what would have happened if there was no snowcover.....60's?
@Bigdaddy, I was thinking the same thing. Who predicted the record temps today? Answer: Nobody!! It would have easily been 60 degrees if we did not have snowcover. Everybody was predicting a high today between 33-37 degrees. Mom Nature threw us a surprise for sure.
Everyone was so focused about the arctic air coming, no one even mentioned anything about record temperatures today and I mean nobody, not even Novak, Randyinchamplin, Duane, and DDwx all of our in-house "experts" missed it, I wont even go there with the NWS missing it, the so-called experts. To me missing a record high temperature anytime of year is a big deal, let alone not even mentioning its potential. As famous actress once said in the movie Pretty Woman: "big mistake,huge".
Yeah I missed it, but honestly I wasn't really looking at how warm temps would get either. I suppose if I post about the frigid cold and snow, I should talk about the warmth when we get it. Something I'll watch for in the future.
I don't think you will hear anyone complaining if the forecast is in the mid/upper 30's and it gets into the 40's. I sure was ok with it. Don't worry, we are only at the end of December. More snow will come and will replenish what we lost. It is incredibly difficult to forecast temps that warm with a snow pack like this, and a less than favorable sun angle. It does go to show how impressive the warmth was ahead of that cold front, and now we are seeing how impressive the chill is behind it.
As far as snow goes, there's a couple systems working their way through this week. The first will be Monday afternoon and will cover a good chunk of MN and WI. Not looking like a lot as far as accumulations go, but enough to cause issues since it's coming in the afternoon. The second will be on Wednesday and that one should have just a little more punch to it. Right now it looks like areas south of the metro will see the best chance at accumulating snow with heaviest amounts south of the I-90 corridor into Iowa, southern WI, and northern IL. Too early to throw exact snow amounts on that one since it's still shifting around but trends north could end up dropping a decent snow event into southern MN come Wednesday. I'll make sure to watch next Friday as well, just in case more record warmth is in store :)
Yep, record high was missed. No time to look, but like many times in the past a likely combination of factors contributed -- warm air advection, pre-frontal compressional warming, etc. In the situ of today, the record high is meaningless in overall impact in comparison to the Arctic front and wind/blowing snow/dense fog/plummeting temps thus I suppose the main focus given. Hope the 47F was enjoyed as I know I didn't mind it and got some things done between entertaining family from out of town for the holidays and so forth.
For the record, I never gave a forecast temperature for today or even the weather, but clearly stated the incorrect map shown and a guide to how to correctly calculate wind chills and giving heads up to the impending situation. I didn't look at the details for the event thus didn't nor will ever give a forecast as winging it or using another person/outlet/etc forecast as mine isn't my style. My time the last several weeks has been on the new job and totally different mindset, thus little clock hours to any weather forecasting other than the fun video talk last week where I asked to just chat rather than forecast given my commitments elsewhere. However, if I make a forecast and bust, unlike too many in the field, I will admit to missing it and try to learn from it. You have to leave the ego at the door when sitting down to the forecast desk as Mother Nature will always humble you at some point.
Enjoy the cold --- I guess the forecasters are saying temps below zero possible Monday through Wednesday. Lets watch and see.
@DDwx, I wouldn't call a record high "meaningless", after all it will go down in the record books forever for everyone to see, on the other hand the wind/fog/blowing snow/drop in temperature will not and be an afterthought and forgotten by most everyone. I wasn't accusing you of a bad forecast(because I know you never gave one). I was merely stating that everyone on this blog who follows the weather religiously and gives forecasts and "heads up" and opinions of what will happen next totally missed a record high temperature, which in my opinion is bad since temperature and precip are the two main ingredients that make up a daily forecast and 50% of that forecast was missed/blown.
I see your point, anonymous, but if there were any serious issues/fatalities, then societal impacts of situ will be long-remembered far more than a 47F record temp preceding it despite being a busted forecast. The event in Feb. '83 of a ground blizzard in wrn/swrn Minn with several fatalities is still recalled and that was not well forecast and changes in forecast procedures/etc resulted. We can agree to disagree on the matter. I'm good with that. Thanks for the comments. Plenty more of winter left to talk about that is for sure ..... now on that next Arctic plunge. :)
It may be that some of us weather enthusiasts look merely at numbers (and what was forecast) vs. thinking in the larger perspective about public safety and related issues. Meteorologists obviously want to warn the public about major concerns where some of us focus (more narrowly) on the accuracy for forecasts. Hope that makes some sense.
What do you want.....its been nothing but arctic air and minor clippers with dustings to 3"......same ole same ole boring weather pattern were stuck in. Hopefully this breaks cuz I need some decent snowfall to accumulate to win my competition with my brother. Speaking of my brother looks like a potential east coast winter storm brewing.
With the potential of a historic arctic outbreak on the horizon next week, with the polar vortex spinning over Lake Michigan....I would think there would be a bit of chatter too.
I believe most people are tired of the cold already, whats there to talk about....bundle up, dress in layers and avoid frostbite. I for one would like to see the cold ease so we can get better moisture in here. ,
Sure we can talk about the cold. Don't be surprised if Monday's high temperature is eventually forecast to be in the teens below zero. Yeah, this is something that is potentially record breaking and is something that I don't think we've seen since probably the mid to late 90's. Here's hoping there is absolutely zero wind to avoid much wind chill. Operational models may still be too cold this far out, but so far majority have them in the -20 range for highs. Gross if you ask me.
Before then, we'll see another gusty cold front come through the state and blow around any fresh snow that we got. At this point it doesn't look like we will warm nearly as much as last weekend but 20's and maybe a few 30's are possible depending on the timing of the cold front. Don't be shocked to see blizzard and winter weather advisory headlines over the weekend since a ground blizzard in the open areas of the state is certainly possible.
Still nothing major in regards to storms looking out over the next 10 days. The headline will be the potential record breaking cold. Models still have a few days to adjust temps for Monday so lets just really hope they moderate some and we aren't so far in the tank. I believe (or am just really hopeful) that while the first 10 days of January will be frigid, that things will begin to moderate for a longer period of time as we get towards the middle of the month. We better get an early spring and nice long summer after this complete crap hole of a winter we are having. I appreciate records being broken and abnormal things happening in the weather world. It's one of the reasons why I enjoy it so much. I could, however, do without records like this. It wouldn't make me sad at all if we didn't even come close to them. Stay warm and Happy New Year everyone.
No doubt that crappy temps are forecast, but I think they're having a hard time predicting these temps even the day OF. Last night's low was forecast to be -15 at MSP. I looked at my digital thermometer at 8pm and it said -8, so I figured -15 wasn't out of the question. But just after midnight, it had "warmed" to -5.
It's brutal weather. Can't be outside for any length of time. But I'll still take the cold over snow. It snowed almost every day during December, which is far more miserable in my opinion.
The record low daily max for Monday is -14, set in 1909.
I think the clouds are playing havoc with the temperature forecasts. In this type of arctic air mass even a little opening in the clouds can cause a quick drop in temperature while a cloudy sky can cause a rise in temperature. Last night is a perfect example. It was -8 here in Apple Valley while at the same time it was -15 in St. Paul. I don't know what the sky conditions were in St. Paul, but it was cloudy here. Half an hour later the temperature had dropped to -13 in AV. I looked outside and saw that the stars were visible. By midnight the temperature had risen to -9. Again, I looked outside, but I could no longer see any stars. It was cloudy and -8 at 7 a.m. today.
Hope all had a decent ring into the new year of 2014. Definitely aware of the impending Arctic push for this weekend, but no time to respond until finally relaxing and watching some football this afternoon with some hot cocoa in hand. PLENTY of high-level chatter on Twitter with a variety of well-known meteorologists/etc regarding the long-range 5-8 day forecasts of the ECWMF and its 2m temp cold bias. Cold temps to plunge into the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys with model forecast values into the -20F realm. ECMWF had overdone values for the last several Arctic intrusions including here in Minnesota so it was interesting debate on the model. Enter the GFS as a few tweets began to emerge on how it was starting to latch onto similar temperature forecasts.
Point being --- this latest Arctic push coming this weekend for the Upper Midwest then Great Lakes, OH/TN valley and even into the Deep South and then Eastern Seaboard to some extent will be a doozy. So far very few record lows in the Upper Midwest but do expect some records to be broken if not here then in areas to the south of us. Its been a very persistent cold for basically the past month as even Thanksgiving week was chilly if you recall. Just take a look at your latest heating bill and the impact is being felt in many folks wallet/check book/online acct or however you pay the bill!
I did actually take a glance at some model guidance and are fairly consistent on a Friday evening FROPA with a warmup on during the day with southerly flow. Will there be a record high into the 40s on Friday? Doubt ait s timing of the front to enhance pre-frontal warming along with degree of cloud cover and precip to develop will be record-temp killers. *Last Sat night, there was not much precip if any (a few flurries and isolated freez drzl). Wind obviously an issue as cold air advection and pressure gradient are evident making those wind chill values plummet and with a better chance of light snow/etc with this frontal passage visibilities due to blowing snow to be a factor Fri night into Saturday.
Sunday through Wednesday = cold, butt-cold to be exact! Morning readings where folks including me will be snapping pics of our car or outdoor thermometers to share with our southern friends will be likely. :) I think last time MSP airport has been colder than -25F was in Dec. 1996. Will it happen? Very possible. Obviously, as we know those extreme morning lows are highly dependent on the air mass, surface ridge location, clouds, timing, and/or Ma Nature's mood, these precise forecast values will be tough to nail down even the day before.
Will be interesting to watch the weather, the news coverage and how busy AAA will be with all the calls for jump starts to cars.
Great stuff, DDwx! Thanks, as always, for your input. I'll be closely watching the cold's progress into Florida (I'm leaving for Tampa Friday morning for 10 days). I "brought" Tampa one of it's coldest winters on record (2010), which included record fish kill, when I lived there for the winter. My friend jokes that I should consult with the FL Chamber of Commerce before visiting. I'll be OK with a day or two of "cold" but hope it's not long-duration cold. So far, they've escaped all the cold.
Folks -- throw this map out and 'unremember' from your memory. It was a WSI 12z RPM model run that is used by WCCO and most other stations using the TruVu Max wx graphics system. It was WAY out to lunch on these values. Don't like to criticize anyone on-air as I know the workflow they go through with tv, etc., but this one should not have been posted online or on-air as it was clearly very inaccurate rather than just a 'potential' forecast. It happens -- a crazy forecast w/no time or whatever to QC before posting or showing in a Max Hit on-air. Don't be too hard on them. Based on the feedback per Twitter, Matt B. will probably make sure things are in check. Stuff happens.
ReplyDeletePer the correct NWS wind chill chart (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/windchill/index.shtml) it would have to be -10F and 60 mph winds at 8am here in the Twin Cities for example. The -70F value in Brainerd and other numbers -- out to lunch as well.
I know it will be cold, but not quite this cold. :)
Hope this helps.
DD..
Bill are you back from the Bay area to join in on all this cold fun with us?
ReplyDeleteNot yet. I'll get to join in on Monday evening. Can't wait. Not.
DeleteI love how the facebook post for that map started with: "No, this is not a joke."
ReplyDeleteDisappointed to see that WCCO yet again shows a graphic and then talks it down. Bad.
ReplyDelete47 for a high today! New Record!! Hope everyone got out and enjoyed it!
ReplyDeleteHow the hell is it 44 right now? ......no one forecasted it to get this warm! Also how is it that we warmed to 40 yesterday and now mid 40's today with all this snowcover......I always hear that temperatures struggle to warm when there is a deep snowcover.....yet look at the past two days.....I could only image what would have happened if there was no snowcover.....60's?
ReplyDelete@Bigdaddy, I was thinking the same thing. Who predicted the record temps today? Answer: Nobody!! It would have easily been 60 degrees if we did not have snowcover. Everybody was predicting a high today between 33-37 degrees. Mom Nature threw us a surprise for sure.
DeleteEveryone was so focused about the arctic air coming, no one even mentioned anything about record temperatures today and I mean nobody, not even Novak, Randyinchamplin, Duane, and DDwx all of our in-house "experts" missed it, I wont even go there with the NWS missing it, the so-called experts. To me missing a record high temperature anytime of year is a big deal, let alone not even mentioning its potential. As famous actress once said in the movie Pretty Woman: "big mistake,huge".
DeleteYeah I missed it, but honestly I wasn't really looking at how warm temps would get either. I suppose if I post about the frigid cold and snow, I should talk about the warmth when we get it. Something I'll watch for in the future.
DeleteI don't think you will hear anyone complaining if the forecast is in the mid/upper 30's and it gets into the 40's. I sure was ok with it. Don't worry, we are only at the end of December. More snow will come and will replenish what we lost. It is incredibly difficult to forecast temps that warm with a snow pack like this, and a less than favorable sun angle. It does go to show how impressive the warmth was ahead of that cold front, and now we are seeing how impressive the chill is behind it.
As far as snow goes, there's a couple systems working their way through this week. The first will be Monday afternoon and will cover a good chunk of MN and WI. Not looking like a lot as far as accumulations go, but enough to cause issues since it's coming in the afternoon. The second will be on Wednesday and that one should have just a little more punch to it. Right now it looks like areas south of the metro will see the best chance at accumulating snow with heaviest amounts south of the I-90 corridor into Iowa, southern WI, and northern IL. Too early to throw exact snow amounts on that one since it's still shifting around but trends north could end up dropping a decent snow event into southern MN come Wednesday. I'll make sure to watch next Friday as well, just in case more record warmth is in store :)
So why did today's temps eclipse forecasts by such an amazing margin??
ReplyDeleteYep, record high was missed. No time to look, but like many times in the past a likely combination of factors contributed -- warm air advection, pre-frontal compressional warming, etc. In the situ of today, the record high is meaningless in overall impact in comparison to the Arctic front and wind/blowing snow/dense fog/plummeting temps thus I suppose the main focus given. Hope the 47F was enjoyed as I know I didn't mind it and got some things done between entertaining family from out of town for the holidays and so forth.
ReplyDeleteFor the record, I never gave a forecast temperature for today or even the weather, but clearly stated the incorrect map shown and a guide to how to correctly calculate wind chills and giving heads up to the impending situation. I didn't look at the details for the event thus didn't nor will ever give a forecast as winging it or using another person/outlet/etc forecast as mine isn't my style. My time the last several weeks has been on the new job and totally different mindset, thus little clock hours to any weather forecasting other than the fun video talk last week where I asked to just chat rather than forecast given my commitments elsewhere. However, if I make a forecast and bust, unlike too many in the field, I will admit to missing it and try to learn from it. You have to leave the ego at the door when sitting down to the forecast desk as Mother Nature will always humble you at some point.
Enjoy the cold --- I guess the forecasters are saying temps below zero possible Monday through Wednesday. Lets watch and see.
DD..
@DDwx, I wouldn't call a record high "meaningless", after all it will go down in the record books forever for everyone to see, on the other hand the wind/fog/blowing snow/drop in temperature will not and be an afterthought and forgotten by most everyone. I wasn't accusing you of a bad forecast(because I know you never gave one). I was merely stating that everyone on this blog who follows the weather religiously and gives forecasts and "heads up" and opinions of what will happen next totally missed a record high temperature, which in my opinion is bad since temperature and precip are the two main ingredients that make up a daily forecast and 50% of that forecast was missed/blown.
DeleteI see your point, anonymous, but if there were any serious issues/fatalities, then societal impacts of situ will be long-remembered far more than a 47F record temp preceding it despite being a busted forecast. The event in Feb. '83 of a ground blizzard in wrn/swrn Minn with several fatalities is still recalled and that was not well forecast and changes in forecast procedures/etc resulted. We can agree to disagree on the matter. I'm good with that. Thanks for the comments. Plenty more of winter left to talk about that is for sure ..... now on that next Arctic plunge. :)
DeleteIt may be that some of us weather enthusiasts look merely at numbers (and what was forecast) vs. thinking in the larger perspective about public safety and related issues. Meteorologists obviously want to warn the public about major concerns where some of us focus (more narrowly) on the accuracy for forecasts. Hope that makes some sense.
Deletewow take a look at this....
ReplyDeletethe Ruc back up model.
http://ruc.noaa.gov/RUC/for_web/ruc_jet/2013122904/full/temp_2m_f24.png
If the Euro is right, the next few mornings are a warm up round. -30 in Minneapolis for January 7th...Nasty.
ReplyDeleteWow, the sound of crickets on here.....
ReplyDeleteWhat do you want.....its been nothing but arctic air and minor clippers with dustings to 3"......same ole same ole boring weather pattern were stuck in. Hopefully this breaks cuz I need some decent snowfall to accumulate to win my competition with my brother. Speaking of my brother looks like a potential east coast winter storm brewing.
DeleteWith the potential of a historic arctic outbreak on the horizon next week, with the polar vortex spinning over Lake Michigan....I would think there would be a bit of chatter too.
ReplyDeleteI believe most people are tired of the cold already, whats there to talk about....bundle up, dress in layers and avoid frostbite. I for one would like to see the cold ease so we can get better moisture in here.
Delete,
Well, that is the title of the post.....it isn't about moisture or snow this time.
DeleteSure we can talk about the cold. Don't be surprised if Monday's high temperature is eventually forecast to be in the teens below zero. Yeah, this is something that is potentially record breaking and is something that I don't think we've seen since probably the mid to late 90's. Here's hoping there is absolutely zero wind to avoid much wind chill. Operational models may still be too cold this far out, but so far majority have them in the -20 range for highs. Gross if you ask me.
ReplyDeleteBefore then, we'll see another gusty cold front come through the state and blow around any fresh snow that we got. At this point it doesn't look like we will warm nearly as much as last weekend but 20's and maybe a few 30's are possible depending on the timing of the cold front. Don't be shocked to see blizzard and winter weather advisory headlines over the weekend since a ground blizzard in the open areas of the state is certainly possible.
Still nothing major in regards to storms looking out over the next 10 days. The headline will be the potential record breaking cold. Models still have a few days to adjust temps for Monday so lets just really hope they moderate some and we aren't so far in the tank. I believe (or am just really hopeful) that while the first 10 days of January will be frigid, that things will begin to moderate for a longer period of time as we get towards the middle of the month. We better get an early spring and nice long summer after this complete crap hole of a winter we are having. I appreciate records being broken and abnormal things happening in the weather world. It's one of the reasons why I enjoy it so much. I could, however, do without records like this. It wouldn't make me sad at all if we didn't even come close to them. Stay warm and Happy New Year everyone.
No doubt that crappy temps are forecast, but I think they're having a hard time predicting these temps even the day OF. Last night's low was forecast to be -15 at MSP. I looked at my digital thermometer at 8pm and it said -8, so I figured -15 wasn't out of the question. But just after midnight, it had "warmed" to -5.
ReplyDeleteIt's brutal weather. Can't be outside for any length of time. But I'll still take the cold over snow. It snowed almost every day during December, which is far more miserable in my opinion.
The record low daily max for Monday is -14, set in 1909.
I think the clouds are playing havoc with the temperature forecasts. In this type of arctic air mass even a little opening in the clouds can cause a quick drop in temperature while a cloudy sky can cause a rise in temperature. Last night is a perfect example. It was -8 here in Apple Valley while at the same time it was -15 in St. Paul. I don't know what the sky conditions were in St. Paul, but it was cloudy here. Half an hour later the temperature had dropped to -13 in AV. I looked outside and saw that the stars were visible. By midnight the temperature had risen to -9. Again, I looked outside, but I could no longer see any stars. It was cloudy and -8 at 7 a.m. today.
DeleteSome good comic relief from Lewis Black re: Minnesota winter. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bvx9w16r2Ak&feature=youtu.be
ReplyDeleteNWS is predicting a "high" of -17 for next Monday!!
ReplyDeleteHope all had a decent ring into the new year of 2014. Definitely aware of the impending Arctic push for this weekend, but no time to respond until finally relaxing and watching some football this afternoon with some hot cocoa in hand. PLENTY of high-level chatter on Twitter with a variety of well-known meteorologists/etc regarding the long-range 5-8 day forecasts of the ECWMF and its 2m temp cold bias. Cold temps to plunge into the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys with model forecast values into the -20F realm. ECMWF had overdone values for the last several Arctic intrusions including here in Minnesota so it was interesting debate on the model. Enter the GFS as a few tweets began to emerge on how it was starting to latch onto similar temperature forecasts.
ReplyDeletePoint being --- this latest Arctic push coming this weekend for the Upper Midwest then Great Lakes, OH/TN valley and even into the Deep South and then Eastern Seaboard to some extent will be a doozy. So far very few record lows in the Upper Midwest but do expect some records to be broken if not here then in areas to the south of us. Its been a very persistent cold for basically the past month as even Thanksgiving week was chilly if you recall. Just take a look at your latest heating bill and the impact is being felt in many folks wallet/check book/online acct or however you pay the bill!
I did actually take a glance at some model guidance and are fairly consistent on a Friday evening FROPA with a warmup on during the day with southerly flow. Will there be a record high into the 40s on Friday? Doubt ait s timing of the front to enhance pre-frontal warming along with degree of cloud cover and precip to develop will be record-temp killers. *Last Sat night, there was not much precip if any (a few flurries and isolated freez drzl). Wind obviously an issue as cold air advection and pressure gradient are evident making those wind chill values plummet and with a better chance of light snow/etc with this frontal passage visibilities due to blowing snow to be a factor Fri night into Saturday.
Sunday through Wednesday = cold, butt-cold to be exact! Morning readings where folks including me will be snapping pics of our car or outdoor thermometers to share with our southern friends will be likely. :) I think last time MSP airport has been colder than -25F was in Dec. 1996. Will it happen? Very possible. Obviously, as we know those extreme morning lows are highly dependent on the air mass, surface ridge location, clouds, timing, and/or Ma Nature's mood, these precise forecast values will be tough to nail down even the day before.
Will be interesting to watch the weather, the news coverage and how busy AAA will be with all the calls for jump starts to cars.
Great stuff, DDwx! Thanks, as always, for your input. I'll be closely watching the cold's progress into Florida (I'm leaving for Tampa Friday morning for 10 days). I "brought" Tampa one of it's coldest winters on record (2010), which included record fish kill, when I lived there for the winter. My friend jokes that I should consult with the FL Chamber of Commerce before visiting. I'll be OK with a day or two of "cold" but hope it's not long-duration cold. So far, they've escaped all the cold.
DeleteNew thread created to focus on next week's cold.
ReplyDelete