Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
Sunday, February 23, 2014
And Then It Was Back to the Never-Ending Cold.....
Sunset on Saturday upon landing at MSP.
After a snowy week (during which your blog host was in California), it seems it's back to the same old super cold. Use this space to discuss your weather thoughts as we approach the final week of meteorological winter (like that's gonna put an end to winter around here).
Welcome back Bill! We missed you, Novak did a good job with his videos(IMHO, he nailed the forecast) but it wasn't the seem without you hosting the video. Yes you missed the snow(even though if you look around it really didn't go anywhere, we just got more and the 10" refreshed the landacape.) Did you find a home?.....when are you moving?
Thanks Big Daddy! Must admit I missed being part of this one, though I did follow the comments closely. And of course there's plenty of snow around to shovel. Found a place to rent in Pleasanton, CA, which is about a 50-minute drive (in good traffic) to San Francisco. Will be moving around April 1. Took a hike there one day and could make out the snow-capped Sierras... so that's kind of neat. The reservoirs were very low so I'm pulling for rain there as much as I'm pulling for snow here!
Well the storms that crash the California coast at times nail Minnesota, so you'll have that connection going for you. So April 1st is your target date.....ok......that leaves plenty of time for Dr. Novak to find us a major winter storm or two as a going away present for you :).
I find it a little funny that Jonathan Yuhas is so confident in our snow chances for next Saturday that he is able to already attach accumulation amounts of 1-2 inches.....per this mornings KSTP.com website.
@Bill it was actually on the website page where the mets write the daily weather blog, it wasn't a video.....but since then theres a updated Dave Dahl entry, which shows no snow for Saturday....but Dave does speak of a "whopper" system the early part of March. I don't believe that website keeps an archive like the startribune website does, but trust me it was there.
FYI, I'm getting tons of spam comments (that you all don't see on here). It may be that I need to change things so that "Anonymous" people can no longer comment. This may affect some of you, but hopefully not many.
I heard at 630 pm that Dave Dahl is calling for a possibility of accumulating snow during next weekend. I'm having a hard time believing that. This is what I posted in the previous thread dated 02/22, and I still believe it.
"@ bigdaddy to answer your question about next weekend. I have been watching the GFS and GEM operational models vs their ensemble means at the 500mb level. The ensemble means have been showing a stronger southeastern ridge than the operational runs. I was thinking that the GFS operational was holding the ridge in place a bit longer that would happen thus giving us a winter storm, while the GEM operational was breaking the ridge down to fast and taking the storm track way to far south. While I was typing this the GFS model came in and has a major hit over IA. I think this is more likely to be closer to reality. After all, that has been the pattern this winter when we get a cold dome of air over us. However as we get into the 2nd and 3rd weeks of March all bets are off."
I hope I'm right, but DD has more experience in pattern recognition.
Randy I like you and all...but I hope your wrong this time....I need more inches to put away my east coast brother, just saying!....but looking at the cold dome I too think it would be hard to get snow this far north, but crazier things have happened...I see the NWS has added 20% chances over the weekend and into Monday whereas yesterday there was no chance, but then in their discussion it says the snow events will stay south of the area....so time will tell...but most times the cold dry dome wins out.
I am loving this winter. The crazy cold could go away, but this is a winter where we will say, "Back in my day....." to our grandkids! Love that! Question: I am wondering when some of our coldest winters have been if we also have had some of our snowiest. I am wondering because it seems like if it gets really cold, we don't always get as much snow, as long as there is some snow cover to keep the heat in the ground. Am I right? Is this highly unusual to get both record-setting cold and potentially record-setting snow?
This is a question I was wondering myself and I have been looking at my data-sets to answer it. I will comment once I am able to put together some data.
I was wondering about snow cover and frost depth myself. I remember reading a couple weeks ago that the frost is surprisingly deep. I was surprised, anyway. Haven't been able to find any more info on it, though.
Next week the pattern does appear to get a little more active at least into Iowa and maybe Southern Edge of MN but will wait for the more savvy weather gurus to chime in.
"According to the National Weather Service, we have now just edged into the 10th coldest winter on record. This meteorological winter has been the coldest since 1979, which means that if you're less than 35 years of age and have lived in Minneapolis your entire life, you have never experienced a winter as cold as the present!" per Todd Nelson on the Paul Douglas weather blog/STRIB.
Bill or anyone.....did you guys read Dave Dahl's blog tonight....he is hinting strongly above anyone else about an "snow event" this weekend....he talks about the cold dome acting as a "ramp" for the pacific moisture to follow and this is becoming more likely for Saturday and Sunday....does anyone know what hes talking about?....is he refering to an overrunning precipitation event where the warm air tries to "overrun" the cold air and snow breaks out......if so why is no one else talking of this possibility including the NWS.
@Bill.....NWS hitting the snow potential harder now in their morning discussion....they have likely chances for Friday and speak of 3 more chances after that.....kudos to DD for recognizing this the earliest. Maybe a new thread needed, but I guess this is new enough.....as PWL would say....continue to bring it!
Yep, snow is "on" now, Novak started chirping about snow late last night as well. He has his travel impact map up for Friday and MSP is in the "moderate" zone.
@bigdaddy and @bill, did you guys read DD blog tonight? He has scaled way back on his chose of words and overall prediction of snow for Friday and thru the weekend, no longer do you see the words "whopper" and "ramp" to describe our snow chances. Still want to give him kudos there bigdaddy. Cold is ok, but snow stay away!
Welcome back Bill! We missed you, Novak did a good job with his videos(IMHO, he nailed the forecast) but it wasn't the seem without you hosting the video. Yes you missed the snow(even though if you look around it really didn't go anywhere, we just got more and the 10" refreshed the landacape.)
ReplyDeleteDid you find a home?.....when are you moving?
Thanks Big Daddy! Must admit I missed being part of this one, though I did follow the comments closely. And of course there's plenty of snow around to shovel. Found a place to rent in Pleasanton, CA, which is about a 50-minute drive (in good traffic) to San Francisco. Will be moving around April 1. Took a hike there one day and could make out the snow-capped Sierras... so that's kind of neat. The reservoirs were very low so I'm pulling for rain there as much as I'm pulling for snow here!
DeleteWell the storms that crash the California coast at times nail Minnesota, so you'll have that connection going for you. So April 1st is your target date.....ok......that leaves plenty of time for Dr. Novak to find us a major winter storm or two as a going away present for you :).
ReplyDeleteI find it a little funny that Jonathan Yuhas is so confident in our snow chances for next Saturday that he is able to already attach accumulation amounts of 1-2 inches.....per this mornings KSTP.com website.
ReplyDeleteThat's kind of weird. I checked the site and during the video he seemed to only comment on Monday's possible snow? Maybe I missed it.
ReplyDelete@Bill it was actually on the website page where the mets write the daily weather blog, it wasn't a video.....but since then theres a updated Dave Dahl entry, which shows no snow for Saturday....but Dave does speak of a "whopper" system the early part of March. I don't believe that website keeps an archive like the startribune website does, but trust me it was there.
DeleteFYI, I'm getting tons of spam comments (that you all don't see on here). It may be that I need to change things so that "Anonymous" people can no longer comment. This may affect some of you, but hopefully not many.
ReplyDeleteI heard at 630 pm that Dave Dahl is calling for a possibility of accumulating snow during next weekend. I'm having a hard time believing that. This is what I posted in the previous thread dated 02/22, and I still believe it.
ReplyDelete"@ bigdaddy to answer your question about next weekend. I have been watching the GFS and GEM operational models vs their ensemble means at the 500mb level. The ensemble means have been showing a stronger southeastern ridge than the operational runs. I was thinking that the GFS operational was holding the ridge in place a bit longer that would happen thus giving us a winter storm, while the GEM operational was breaking the ridge down to fast and taking the storm track way to far south. While I was typing this the GFS model came in and has a major hit over IA. I think this is more likely to be closer to reality. After all, that has been the pattern this winter when we get a cold dome of air over us. However as we get into the 2nd and 3rd weeks of March all bets are off."
I hope I'm right, but DD has more experience in pattern recognition.
Randy I like you and all...but I hope your wrong this time....I need more inches to put away my east coast brother, just saying!....but looking at the cold dome I too think it would be hard to get snow this far north, but crazier things have happened...I see the NWS has added 20% chances over the weekend and into Monday whereas yesterday there was no chance, but then in their discussion it says the snow events will stay south of the area....so time will tell...but most times the cold dry dome wins out.
DeleteI am loving this winter. The crazy cold could go away, but this is a winter where we will say, "Back in my day....." to our grandkids! Love that! Question: I am wondering when some of our coldest winters have been if we also have had some of our snowiest. I am wondering because it seems like if it gets really cold, we don't always get as much snow, as long as there is some snow cover to keep the heat in the ground. Am I right? Is this highly unusual to get both record-setting cold and potentially record-setting snow?
ReplyDeleteThis is a question I was wondering myself and I have been looking at my data-sets to answer it.
DeleteI will comment once I am able to put together some data.
Winter Misery Index
Deletehttp://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/winter_misery_index_13_14.html
According to them, this is our worst winter since 1985-1986.
I was wondering about snow cover and frost depth myself. I remember reading a couple weeks ago that the frost is surprisingly deep. I was surprised, anyway. Haven't been able to find any more info on it, though.
ReplyDeleteNext week the pattern does appear to get a little more active at least into Iowa and maybe Southern Edge of MN but will wait for the more savvy weather gurus to chime in.
ReplyDeleteIf met.no has anything to say about it, we will not sniff 20F for at least the next ten days. Average high today is 32F.
ReplyDeleteI'll take this cold over snow any day.
ReplyDelete"According to the National Weather Service, we have now just edged into the 10th coldest winter on record. This meteorological winter has been the coldest since 1979, which means that if you're less than 35 years of age and have lived in Minneapolis your entire life, you have never experienced a winter as cold as the present!" per Todd Nelson on the Paul Douglas weather blog/STRIB.
ReplyDeleteBill or anyone.....did you guys read Dave Dahl's blog tonight....he is hinting strongly above anyone else about an "snow event" this weekend....he talks about the cold dome acting as a "ramp" for the pacific moisture to follow and this is becoming more likely for Saturday and Sunday....does anyone know what hes talking about?....is he refering to an overrunning precipitation event where the warm air tries to "overrun" the cold air and snow breaks out......if so why is no one else talking of this possibility including the NWS.
ReplyDeleteThought the same thing. DD seems to be hitting this potential harder than most (all) others.
DeleteIan just said 2-3 inches on Sunday.
Delete@Bill.....NWS hitting the snow potential harder now in their morning discussion....they have likely chances for Friday and speak of 3 more chances after that.....kudos to DD for recognizing this the earliest. Maybe a new thread needed, but I guess this is new enough.....as PWL would say....continue to bring it!
DeleteYep, snow is "on" now, Novak started chirping about snow late last night as well. He has his travel impact map up for Friday and MSP is in the "moderate" zone.
ReplyDelete@bigdaddy and @bill, did you guys read DD blog tonight? He has scaled way back on his chose of words and overall prediction of snow for Friday and thru the weekend, no longer do you see the words "whopper" and "ramp" to describe our snow chances. Still want to give him kudos there bigdaddy. Cold is ok, but snow stay away!
ReplyDeleteNew thread started for continued cold and prospects of Friday snow (and a video with Dr. Novak).
ReplyDelete