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| Two of our favorite meteorologists look ahead at possible snow. |
Thursday, February 13, 2014
As Sub-Zero Subsides, Will "Warmth" Herald More Snow?
The god-awful stretch of 500-degree below weather seems nearly gone. But several local meteorologists are seeing hints of a more active, snowier pattern ahead. While your proud website host is off to California in search of greener pastures, use this space to discuss upcoming snow possibilities.
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Bill I hope you don't mind me coping my last post from the previous thread to help spark some disco.
ReplyDeleteThoughts about the 10 day period and beyond.
As Duane noted in his post from 02/11, we are going to get into a interesting period, sure there will be some warmth coming in. But there are several things to look at as we go forward.
#1 Monday evening into Tuesday, if the system along the ND and Canada border strengthens 6 hours earlier than currently progged we could get a surprise.
#2 The time frame for this one is around the 20th to 21st, this could be a major system but will most likely start as rain and end as a cement type of snow.
#3 The second system may lay the ground work for what will follow, after the cement snow, cold air will fall into to MN just like the snowboarders fall into the half pike. There are hints that a second major system may show up around the 22-23rd and this looks to have no precip type issues, all snow.
Time will tell, but this is setting up like the most active period of this winter season.
I also put this caveat in the replay section
DeleteOpps I forgot something. Of course at this range confidence is very low that that systems 2 and 3 wiill effect the metro area, but as far of it being close the metro, I would give them about a 30% chance. I would define close to the metro as being within about 150 miles or so.
@Bill are you leaving us already?.....thought u were moving March/April.....as far as snow goes I say bring everything and the kitchen sink, I'm taking a beating from my brother....I have been following closely our snow chances increasing since our bitter air has subsided, keep hearing Novak talking about the warmer weather and was hopeful to hear about some snow chances.
ReplyDeleteNot yet, just a little advance apartment hunting. Looking at around April 1. But I'll figure out a way to keep things going on here.
DeleteBill, why are you heading out west? Job opportunity? Tired of the MN winters? Etc. We wish you well! You have put together a great site here!
DeleteThanks for the kind words. We'll figure out a way to keep the connection on here going. Why? Various things... weather, significant other's job transfer, love of hiking.
DeleteThose of you who have a serious mancrush on Novak need to relax(and you know who you are, look at last thread), there is no serious warm-up coming or a major thaw, yes it will be warmer then what we have been experiencing and yes it will get above the thawing point during the Mon-Thru timeframe but not by much we still will have highs in the 30's, maybe touch 40 on one day but with two new fresh snow events in between and more chill coming down by next Friday winter isn't going away anytime soon. As a side note Novak has been advertising the warmth and thaw for So. MN he never has included the metro in that, widespread 40's and 50's will not be seen in the metro, maybe on a bank thermometer and we all know how accurate those are.
ReplyDeleteMan, so much to talk about for next week. A thaw/temps above freezing still look to be in the cards several days next week. This time of year it is so incredibly difficult (at least I think it is) to forecast temps especially with a decent snow pack still in place, potential for fresh snow, increased sun angle, etc. Plus, if we do melt it tends to lead to fog and low clouds if conditions are right, which can inhibit heating as well. More reason why I don't envy the NWS and their daily job. Model disagreement certainly doesn't help things either, which is exactly what we're seeing for next week. First things first though...
ReplyDeleteSaturday's system looks to be a quick hitting deal, with mostly 1-3 inch totals across the area (maybe an isolated 4 inch amount somewhere). Enough to create a few issues on the roads if people aren't careful.
Attention then turns to Monday. Most models are developing a nice area of snow and move it across the area, slowly strengthening it as it moves further east. That one has the potential to drop advisory level snows across most of central/southern MN and into western WI. In fact if the foreign models are correct it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see the NWS start putting up watches either overnight or during the day on Saturday. They may wait to see if the GFS catches up with the others before they do. Euro model does show a bit of a coupled jet with a nice negatively tilted trough coming through the area. That would help to enhance lift and blossom up some snow in time for the Monday morning rush hour. Still a couple days for things to change but needs to be watched.
Finally, attention turns to the end of the week, particularly Thursday. The last 4 or 5 runs of the European model have shown a large cyclone developing and moving across Wisconsin during the day on Thursday. A better looking set up overall for those who want snow. This one would be quite the beast if the Euro model is correct. It has been very consistent on developing it and moving it somewhere close to home. Nice jet streak coming up through Missouri, Illinois and towards Lake Michigan. That, plus another jet to the north, and a negatively tilted trough coming across all lead to about as perfect as a set up as you can get. Of course, if this thing does develop and ends up moving further west we would end up in the warm sector and see mostly rain (maybe some thunder?). Looks like a pretty classic spring system. The downside (for snow lovers) and upside (for snow haters) is that there is pretty much zero model agreement on this system. All the models develop something, but they vary a lot in the overall set up. Given it's 6 days away, it really isn't a shock. Euro, however, has been adamant on developing that storm on Thursday. Which way will it go? Will it develop? Way too soon to say, but we will have plenty to watch next week. Euro then develops more next weekend so needless to say, the European model is very snowy. It did a great job with the east coast storm a couple days ago, so we'll see I guess.
So, I'm done rambling now. In summary we will be melting snow, but at the same time, will possibly be adding to it. If I misread something in the models, or am missing something, please feel free to let me know. I'm still learning about jet dynamics so I'm trying to use these systems as learning opportunities. Buckle up folks...I think Old Man Winter still has a few gasps of breath left in him.
Its a good 6 days out there but he Euro puts a 976mb surface low over La Crosse on Thursday. Gonna be fun to track that one over the next few days.
ReplyDeleteAlso I agree with Duane that Monday is looking a bit more interesting then it did a day or two ago.
I hope Dr. Novak is right about today's snow prediction. He's still calling for 2-4 inches (mostly southern and southwestern metro). The NWS is saying perhaps a dusting to half and inch. Even KARE is saying 1-2 inches! I'm rooting for the Monday storm and the storm late next week too! I love my snow!! I'm surprised PWL hasn't chimed in yet....
ReplyDeleteA beautiful snowy Saturday here in the Farmington area with a solid fresh 2 inches. It's still snowing moderately with mid-sized flakes!
ReplyDeleteA good 4 inches in Rochester this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteOnly 1.5 here in Golden Valley.....hoping more gets dished out for Sunday night......not looking very promising for continued additional snowfall later this week after reading the area discussion from the NWS.....too much uncertainty and model flip-flopping.
ReplyDeleteWinter storm watch issued. Wouldn't be surprised if the metro gets a warning due to heavy snow during rush hour.
ReplyDeleteAll this snow is going to temper our warm-up this week. Still thinking a nice thaw with 30s/40s likely, but we will be hard pressed to make it past 45 degrees. I have to admit that I'm a bit surprised that portions of so. MN & western WI will receive 6"+ between SAT-MON. Hell, RST may record 8"+ when all is said and done.
ReplyDeleteThere is no need for 45 degree temperatures in February. Who wants slop? That's what April is for.
DeleteNow you know I like snow as much as the next person...but it looks the NWS jumped the gun on this one.....this event tommorrow morning screams advisory not winter storm warning, it was a stretch last night/this morning when 4-7 inches was forecasted and they said western WI will have the higher total....now the wording is 4-5 inches with locally 6" east of I-35.....I know it will fall during rush hour but were hardy Minnesotans its not our first go around nor is it the first snow of the season and in my opinion we have a pretty good DOT department.....now I do hope the snow area stalls or the heaviest falls on eastern MN with over 6" but it looks like the warning is a stretch according to the very latest guidance.
ReplyDeleteYou think we can get a major/blockbuster storm around our neck of woods at least once this winter.....Randyinchamplin is the storm you talked about around the 22nd still have potential.
The Warning is because the storm happens to be the worsr during Morning rush hour not for totals.
ReplyDeleteI'm fine with the warning for the metro. NWS's top priority is to protect lives and property. People die in car crashes during bad weather at much higher rates. A metro area of 3 million getting 5 inches of snow in the 4am to 9am period seems to justify a warning...especially after what we've seen down south this year. Most people don't pay attention to a "winter weather advisory" but "winter storm warning" is a little different.
ReplyDeleteWSW is weak, tommorrow is also an holiday which means less traffic, lets just call it for what it is the "Atlanta winter storm warning".
ReplyDeleteI realize that we're partly getting the warning because we're a large metro area and it's right during rush hour, but the warning maps look strange when there's a clear west/east gradient of snow amounts, yet with the WSW, there's this little appendage reaching west right over the metro. Unless you read their reports (which clarify that the metro will see probably as much snow as the advisory areas just to the north and south), you'd stay fairly confused.
ReplyDeleteThat's why it is up to the TV forecasters to emphasize on the fact that the system will probably end up bringing 3-5 inches of snow, but the NWS felt that due to the high snow rates and rush hour (even with a holiday), a warning was justified. I'm ok with the warning too. Like CWY said...people tend to hear warning, and adjust more so than they would for an advisory. People can gripe all they want, but, again, like CWY said, it's the NWS's responsibility to get the word out to protect life and property. They are doing their job. Will people still crash, or slide off the road, or whatever? You bet. Happens all the time. There is no preventing it unless every road is shut down but we all know that wouldn't ever happen. Take it easy on the roads folks :)
DeleteI told someone at work yesterday that tonight we could expect 5-8" and the system may well be slower than forecasts would indicate. Nothing has changed my mind in that regard. The Euro has been very consistent with this solution along with the Global GEM and UKMET, now the GFS is on board with its 12/16 18z and 12/17 0z runs.
ReplyDeleteHere is the last paragraph from MPX with their 925pm update. You may want to read the entire update for the reasons behind this.
"THE HEART OF THE STORM WILL ARRIVE DURING RUSH HOUR WITH RATES OF
1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...SO TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION NUMBERS ARE KIND
OF A MOOT POINT. GIVEN THE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER...THE ODDS
OF THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER-FORECASTED ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN BEING
OVER-FORECASTED."
Link:
Deletehttp://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MPX&issuedby=MPX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Yeah I read that too. Sounds like they're getting a bit more bullish. Also SREF has been increasing precip totals over the past few runs. Think the average for 21z models was up to 0.7" for the Twin Cities. To take a phrase from Capital Weather Gang...might be a boom and not a bust in store.
ReplyDeleteCarver County is under a winter storm warning with 5" in the forecast and Kandiyohi County is not even under a winter weather advisory with 2-3" in the forecast. If the bar is going to be lowered for warning criteria, shouldn't it be lowered for advisory as well? Ever drive on a snow cover 12 or 212 heading out west with on coming traffic going 55 mph. I'll take my chances on the Metro highways any day of the week. (Forecast totals I gathered were from NWS zone area forecasts as of 1:00 am on 2/17/14).
ReplyDeleteWe couldn't have asked this storm to evolve any better than it has. I take my hat off to all of the models, esp. the NAM & hi-Res WRF. Their timing (4am-10am) & totals (3"-6") will likely be dead on when all is said and done. I hope the public appreciates how well this event was forecasted.
ReplyDeleteUhm.. we shall see, Your latest 24hr snow forecast had the entire core metro area in the 4-6 inch zone. The MSP NWS had it shaded in the 5" band.
DeleteI think we will come up a bit short of these total, as the snow intensity -- although moderate -- has not been consistently 1" p/hour as most people were expecting. So,we'll wait the official measurements at noon for the airport to get a clearer picture, but so far it looks slightly overforecast
Anonymous,
DeleteI bet you will be quiet after that foolish comment. 6.3" (NWS Chanhassen), 5.2" (Maple Grove), 4.6" (MSP Int'l), etc. Looks like a solid 4"-6" to everyone else but you. What in the hell are you smoking? Take another hit my friend.
Best thing for you to do is give credit where credit is due. You just bashed the NWS with your post above yet they were right on when all was said and done.
Mr Novak,
DeleteI suggest you calm down, drink a glass of water, and then reread what I wrote and you will realize I did not bash anyone.
I simply said that the noon report would give us a clearer picture (as it did) and that at the time of writing the forecast looked over-predicted (as it also did comparing the morning reports with the NWS grids).
The nice burst of snow between 10.45am and 11.30am aligned the totals,which as a snow lover, I cannot be happier about.
As a met forecaster you should appreciate when people are data driven and wait for actual reports to validate forecasts, instead of pandering to the media hype and spins.
So with all due respect, it is not mine, but your comment that looks foolish and disrespectful.
I hear you and I'm cool with it. Normally I don't respond to comments like yours, but I just get frustrated when people jump on the NWS & others when it comes to predictions. It is not a perfect science. When the NWS says 3"-5"+ & people are upset that we only got 3", that irks me.
DeleteThe truth is that many forecasters & the model data did a fine job with this storm & they should be applauded for their efforts, not criticized.
2+ inches in south mpls so far at 9:10am
ReplyDeleteWe got a solid 5.5 to 6 inches in the Farmington/Rosemount area.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous jumping on Novak, you got boomed, give it up...........
ReplyDeleteOnly a little over 3 in Minny. Definitely on the low side of most forecasts, but I mostly heard 3-6, so technically it was in range. I expected A LOT worse than what we got today though.
ReplyDeleteLooks like 1-2" here in Hudson. Forecasters were saying that western Wisconsin would have the most yesterday...6" plus.
DeleteDid some of the heavier snow bands set up over the west metro? It appears that some western burbs got quite a bit more than I did in St. Paul. ??? Strange. When all is said and done, I'm curious to see who wins the award for most snow! I wonder if it won't even be in WI.
ReplyDeleteLooks like this storm pulsated, kinda like a T'Storm. Also, a bit of dry air infiltrated on the eastern end of the heavy snow band that set-up over the western metro. This is a perfect reason why forecasters like to give a range like 3"-6".
ReplyDeleteAlso, sometimes I just don't trust some of the reports that come into the NWS. For instance, one report from Richfield measured 2.6" total. How could that be when MSP Int'l came in close to 5"? Frustrating.
4.5" to 5"....here in Golden Valley......good work on most forecasts. Novak what does your crystal ball say for Thursday.
ReplyDeleteThe LAX AFD talks about a high imapct storm later this week with possible mixed precip issues. The MSP AFD doesn't seem to 'excited'.
ReplyDelete@ bigdaddy....in response to your question on Feb 16 which was in response to my post at the top of this thread. Storm #2 is very close to impacting this area, as a matter of fact the latest Nam does so, as well as the 17/0z run of the UKMET. If you look back I said storms 2 and 3 would have 3 in 10 chance of impacting this area. I would now give storm 2 about a 6 in 10 chance. Storm 3 if it should develop again will be suppressed to the south as colder air dumps in after storm 2.
ReplyDeleteAnd my bad. 5-8" didn't really happen, those that called for 4-6" did very well.
Thanks a bunch Randy......crossing my fingers that Storm#2 gives us some snow, yeah I see us going well below normal in the temperature department by the weekend and next week which doesn't bode well for the storm track to be near us.
DeleteAs far as your 5-8 prediction don't beat yourself up over an half an inch shortfall at MSP.....but several others were in your range like the NWS office and Maple Grove and my backyard to name a few.
Continue to look for my Domebuster type of storm...as I type my brother is up 54-51!
Normally the track from ARX to Green Bay is golden for us as at this time of the year. Convective precip will often times be located on the near east side of the surface low and as that raises through the column it can throw precip into the cold sector. However with the heavy snow pack to our south east I wonder how much convective precip will be seen on the east side. The slower the system is the better chance we have.
DeleteThis is a hot link, I didn't save it so it may change if you look at it later. This is the Feb 18/0z run from the UKMET A 981 mb surface low over ARX. yikes..
ReplyDeletehttp://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif
yeah I saw that. And The ECMWF is leaning that way as well...
DeleteThursdays system is getting VERY interesting and VERY close....blizzard watches only about 40 miles south of metro and winter storm watches as close as South St. Paul. For sure the entire metro loop will see snow from this, question is how much. Whats the saying I always hear on here...its not good to be in the sweet spot for the heavy snow days out from the storm,but as the storm approaches theres always a shift.....lets hope it takes about an 75 mile jog NW.
ReplyDelete@bigdaddy, absolutely very interesting, this was a surprise waking up to. Lacrosse NWS graphic includes the MSP metro core in their 3-8" snowfall.
DeleteAlso Accuweather going with 4-8" in my area(Richfield).
NWS is calling for 2-4" Thurs and 1" Thurs night (so 3-5"). That's enough to snarl things up in the Metro!
Delete47.1 inches current total for MSP.
ReplyDelete#54 in the list.
Next up 47.4 (1912-13; 1928-29; 1992-93). Should not be a problem.
To break into the top 20 we would need 66.3. Top 10 is 75.8.
Tough but possible....
Continue the snow dance folks..
...POWERFUL WINTER STORM TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
ReplyDeleteSOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...
.A BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE CITIES OF
LE CENTER...MANKATO AND FAIRMONT. THE BLIZZARD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND ALL OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE TWIN CITIES METRO...RED
WIND... RICE LAKE...MENOMONIE AND EAU CLAIRE.
Looking at all the dynamics coming into play here, the Thursday /Friday storm looks very impressive. I seem to rarely be on the right side of the fence when it comes to storm paths, and as of right now, I would say this storm will nudge to the NW quite a bit due to an increasing favorable ridge in the SE. With the moisture that will be available, and the slower progression, this is shaping up to be a monster for somebody to deal with. A foot to foot and a half is not out of the question in the main swath of this storm. i wish it was here, but i will leave the path forecast to the real mets. You guys do some really nice work communicating your forecasts on this site. Keep it up.
ReplyDeleteREALLY??? No comments since late morning yesterday with potentially the largest winter storm of the season about to unleash it fury on us?
ReplyDeleteBill is in California, missing this storm(I'm sure hes smiling ear to ear) so Novak is flying solo this time around in regards to videos, he has one up currently on his facebook and twitter pages...he has the entire metro in a 5-8" band with 8-12" on the other side of the border in WI.
DeleteAs a side note Winter Storm Warnings and Blizzard Warnings have been hoisted...looks like most of us will get a solid dumping if you live near or in the metro....the heaviest of the snows looks like it sets up from Rochester to Red Wing on north into northern WI, but we are still 24hrs from the storms arrival that axis can still shift west or east.....just look at Mondays snow for example...the heaviest was to be over Western WI but the west side of the metro had the higher snowfall totals....hold on this should be a wild storm with zero visibilities and thundersnow within our CWA.
Strib/WN showing only a couple inches for MSP this morning? Also Sven's tweet showed two models, one of which showed heaviest in west metro? So confusing. Why such divergence so late in the game?
ReplyDeleteBecause the storm hasn't even entered the west coast yet (well it has now, but the first balloons won't be sampling it until the next set of model runs).
DeleteThe 12Z NAM has shifted the storm way into Eastern Wisconsin! Really?
ReplyDeleteFunny, storms busting before one flake even falls. Hilarious, I can just hear all the pissed off snowlovers.
DeleteBut the 12z GFS still holds a more favorable western track.
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see which is right.
Anyone has any read on the 12z Euro?
12z Euro data won't be available until around noon. Right now, NAM is the odd ball out here. So far the GFS and the GEM (Canadian) model are showing solutions they've been showing for several runs now. The short range ensembles which were further east are bumping west and increasing as well. I'll admit the 12z NAM run concerned me, but seeing the others hold their solution is really leading me to believe the NAM is the odd ball here, and will more than likely come back around with this afternoon's and evening's run. It's something to monitor, but don't jump ship after one drastic shift in one model (especially when so far the others are holding). Waiting on the UKMET and European model now to see if they are also holding their solutions.
ReplyDeleteWTF!....tell me thats not true about a possible bust....just read Paul Huttner's blog over at MPR and he said the NAM shifting east and could be just sunshine in the metro, is the NWS just disregarding the NAM? otherwise why upgrade the wat hes to warnongs if the overnight NAM shifted east as well. Huttner was comparing the NAM with the still westerly GFS....but not one word about the EURO, whats the EURO saying?
ReplyDeleteIf the forecast goes the NAM way there will be a whole lot of crow needed for the NWS offices of Duluth, MSP, LaCrosse for winter/blizzard warnings to sun.
ReplyDeleteThe 10:37 a.m. update from the LaCrosse NWS was holding the course for the storm to strike as advertised.
ReplyDeleteAlso the 11:41 Hazardous weather outlook from MSP still holding course for heavy snow in the metro.
ReplyDeleteNWS in La Crosse and Chanhassen are discounting the NAM's forecast. The 12z Euro is in, and it's increased its strength from last night. It's pretty similar to the GFS, if anything maybe just a bit west of the GFS track of the surface low. So, we have GFS, GEM, UKMET, and ECMWF all agreeing with the track generally from near Madison, WI up to the west of Green Bay. Looking at some of the high resolution models (NMM and ARW) they are siding moreso with the NAM, however I do believe that those short range models all influence each other so if one is off, the others will be too. 00z data should clear things up tonight, but if we see the NAM come back around with the 18z run, I would expect it to mostly lock in tonight.
ReplyDeleteThe 18z NAM is back in line with everything else, so confidence should really be increased now. Personally the only thing that could turn this thing into a significant bust is if the storms to our south cut off the moisture flow up into our area. I don't really see that happening, but it certainly has happened before. If this thing really cranks up the way it's forecast to, thunder is a possibility in some of the heaviest bands. This would be more likely in WI as opposed to MN. The weather service, and some media outlets are stressing the sharp cut off on the western edge of things and it is good that they are. Any deviation west or east in the track will have a huge difference in snow totals especially in eastern MN. Stay tuned!
ReplyDeleteI consider myself fairly tech savvy, but for the life of me I can't find an online resource that allows me to find the model runs I'd like to see. Can you tell me where you went to read the 18z NAM?
DeleteThanks for your analysis as well.
Anytime! This is a site that I like to use, and it's one Novak uses as well. It has pretty much all the models, but the Euro isn't all that detailed. Wunderground has a more detailed version of the Euro.
Deletehttp://www.weather.cod.edu/forecast/
I would try http://www.wunderground.com/ then under Maps and Radar choose Weather Models
ReplyDeleteThank you. I'm just not meteorologically qualified enough to use wxcaster.com I guess!
DeleteThe 18Z NAM is still showing most of this crap going east of the Twin Cities.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2014/02/19/18/NAM_221_2014021918_F39_PCPIN_24_HR.png
I should clarify. By "most" I mean the core of the Twin Cities looks like around four inches:
Deletehttp://grib2.com/gis-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=18Z&STATIONID=MPX
Seems to me it's still showing almost a half inch of precip for most of the metro. That sounds about right for 4-8 inches of snow.
DeleteThe NWS just extended the Winter Storm Warnings to the west to now include the west metro as well. The Winter Weather Advisory area was also pushed farther west.
ReplyDeleteWith the amount of wind they are forecasting, even with 3-5 inches of snow, the warning is warranted considering the flat, open areas in the far west metro. The ground blizzard at the end of January caused 2-3 foot drifts in my area after 2-3 inches of snow.
DeleteDr. Novak has raised his snowfall prediction to 8-12 inches for at least the central and eastern areas of the metro tomorrow. Storm shifting west??
ReplyDeleteDr.Novak has the highest prediction going for this storm, some like to call the models outliers in this case Novak is the outliner, he is the only one to have a prediction of 8-12" for MSP, meaning he has the highest low number range of 8". Either he is on to something or on something. We will all know over the next 24 hours.
DeleteDid you take a look at the latest (00z) NAM?
DeleteDr Novak is absolutely right to push amounts higher.
If the 00z Euro and GFS back it up (and let us remember that earlier today the NAM was the outlier to the east), everybody else will jump on the same wagon pretty soon.
As usual Dr Novak is bold and back is boldness with data, instead of waiting what happens to issue amounts like Paul Huttner and others.
So give credit to Dr Novak, as by the way he has been right about 80% of the time this winter, even more than the NWS.
...sorry for spelling btw. was typing from a small cellphone keyboard..
DeleteNAM.....worst. Model. ever.
ReplyDeleteBased off the very consistent Reg GEM, UKMET, coupled with tonight's run of the NAM ( which had ingested some wacky tabacy data earlier today) and the GFS. My snow fall totals are these. The far western metro 6-8 inches, the 169 corridor 7-10, and east of I35 10-12" . This is well supported by the RUC back up model which is a high resolution 24 hour model. By tomorrow night at 7pm it shows a wide area of 6-8" over the metro with simulated radar at the same time showing 30-37 dbz returns wide spread over the metro, which simply means the snowfall will still be ripping.
ReplyDeleteI just wished I had the Euro on board, but it really hasn't preformed that well for us this year.
And I agree with DR Novak's comments in his latest video, I didn't include it in the above post, but it appears like near blizzard conditions could also occur just north of the metro....Stay tuned to the NWS MPX for further updates as conditions may warrant a change.
Deletehttp://origin-www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/
QPF Totals at MSP
ReplyDelete12z Euro Deterministic - 0.58"
12z Euro Ensemble Mean - 0.44"
18z GFS - 0.9"
0z CMC - 0.65"
0z NAM 4km WRF - 1.0"
0z NAM 12km - about 0.7"
This storm looks absolutely beautiful from a model data standpoint. I can't imagine not experiencing a paralyzing blizzard. However, I've been fooled before.
ReplyDeleteHave a good night everyone!
Since nobody else did it.....the TV and NWS predictions by my area, Red Wing.
ReplyDelete4 - big range 10" - 16"....play it safe Chris
5 - 9" - 12"....I always l;liked Ken
9 - very specific 8.5" Marler had the big bands N and NW of Red Wing
11 - 4" - 8" good ol' Sven
NWS - 12" - 15" weather story graphic 4:55am
Dave Dahl on his 8am radio spot on KS95... just updated to 8-12 for the twin cities metro and 12-15 for western WI......he also said 2-3 inch hourly snowfall rates with thundersnow!......since it hasn't been said yet........Bring It!
DeleteSven upped his total this morning around 6AM to 6"-10". Question to the mets on this page. Barlow said temps in the metro would hover in the low to mid 30s all day. How does that not translate into a rain event?
DeleteFor example, here is the forecast for Red Wing at 5pm.
DeleteSurface - 33 to 34
295 meters up 32
Above that all below freezing.
So while there will be a window of a few hundred feet above freezing, snow can't melt in that short of a period, especially when we are talking about 33 degrees, not 40 degrees like you see with a freezing rain event.
Plus there is a good chance the snow fall will cool even the lower atmosphere enough to bring it below freezing.
All but the lowest few hundred feet will be below freezing. Thats not enough time for falling snow to melt before it hits the clearly cold enough ground.
ReplyDeleteThat makes sense. Thank you for your insight.
DeleteThe bulk of the precipitation and associated low seems to be moving more easterly than north (as recently predicted). I don't doubt that moisture continues to flow into the system and it will strengthen, but I think the heaviest impact shifts back to the east a bit more as forecasted earlier in the week.
ReplyDeleteDude, are you wat hing the radar returns bloosoming to the west of the metro and all the moisture coming up from Iowa, if anything its moving further west.
DeleteLike I said Sam......
DeleteIn lowa there is a severe thunderstorm warning but the temperatures in the vicinity of that storm only measure in the mid thirties... If that does not indicate the power of this system I do not know what does.
ReplyDeleteIt is going to be a wild ride this afternoon & evening as severe T'Storms head north through IA & into so. MN/WI. ThunderSNOW is a lock esp. from the I-35 corridor on east. 974mb low in WI by late tonight? Wow!
ReplyDeleteThis is going to be a paralyzing blizzard for MKT, STC, DLH, MSP, RST, EAU, HYR, etc.
Snow in Plymouth at the Carlson Towers complex. 10:35am
ReplyDeleteLight rain in Rosemount at 11AM.
ReplyDeletethe latest NAM did shift the heaviest bands slightly eastward...
ReplyDeletehttp://grib2.com/gis-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=12Z&STATIONID=MPX
Light rain in Burnsville at 11:10 AM. I hope it turns to snow soon!!
ReplyDeleteWinter Storm Warnings have been extended farther west to include St. Cloud and Willmar. A day ago they were looking at only an inch or so in those areas.
ReplyDeleteHmmmm, it's been 45 minutes of steady light rain (no mix) in Eagan. Raindrops keep falling on my head....when I was expecting snowflakes. I'm not pushing any panic buttons, but....
ReplyDeleteLet's not panic. It's just light rain so it won't affect snowfall totals. They are still calling for a change to snow to occur soon in the metro.
Deleteyes temperatures higher than expected...
ReplyDeletetoo early to say, but a potential bust feeling starting to emerge...
Is it currently snowing anywhere in the metro or is it just rain?
ReplyDeleteYou guys do realize that the system has been a little slower to get here than originally predicted, right? As of at least yesterday, there was a good chance of mixed precip at the onset (which was going to be around the morning commute as of yesterday). Since the "start time" got pushed out a little, here's that mixed precip at the onset.
ReplyDeleteI'm still thinking 8-12" is a solid bet.
Excellent point, Neil. I was just about to chime in with that same comment. As you said, what is occurring now is what we were originally expecting during this morning's drive time. This storm still looks like it's going to be fairly impressive for the metro.
Deleteeveryone needs to relax...this system is still organizing. Storm Prediction Center has issue a MD for our area...2+" per hour snowfall rate expected. As Neil stated, the system has slowed but still on track.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0121.html
this!
Deletevia twitter, NWS just upped it snowfall totals to 12"+ for the entire metro area
ReplyDeletehere's the link
Deletehttps://twitter.com/NWSTwinCities/status/436561987556761600/photo/1
We now have snow in Burnsville!!
ReplyDeleteSlow change over in the Como Park area. Still mostly rain but flakes are coming quicker.
ReplyDeleteFull on snow and it is coming down hard.
DeleteTwin Cities in the bullseye now. Could easily see a foot over some parts of the metro.
ReplyDeletePoint forecast for my area (Just southeast of Red Wing) says 3-7 today, with 10-16 (!!) tonight, guess I can infer that means 13-23 inches, temps look like they'll be around 30 degrees for most of the snow, raises the question could this storm rival the 2010 domebuster for the biggest blockbuster storm of the decade or since 2000 at least? 20 inches of heavy wet snow plus a blizzard....if this happens things would be shut down through friday at least...
ReplyDeleteThe point forecast for St. Louis Park is a total of 10-18 inches.
DeleteWhat is the point forecast and is there a link where I can look at it?
Deletetry going to this site and clicking your city on the map
Deletehttp://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=MNZ060
At the NWS site, just click on where you live and total up the range of amounts in the forecast.
DeleteThis better be the longest, hottest summer on record. I want 90s from May Day until Thanksgiving. Payback's a bitch, and it's coming. Mark my words.
ReplyDeleteIs it supposed to get colder? I'd feel much more confident about this storm if the temperatures were in the 20's instead of the low/mid 30's.
ReplyDeleteThis storm is going to have to be based on a curve. Just based on timing and transition no one gets an "A". At 1:45 pm still a rain/snow/sleet mix in St Paul near the Xcel Center. There is a trace to 0.1" accumulation so far.
ReplyDeleteIt's been snowing heavily in Burnsville for the past 10-15 minutes!
ReplyDeleteNow snowing heavily in Saint Paul Mac-Groveland area.
ReplyDeletesnowing like crazy in Somerset. Says totals of 10-18" incoming...
ReplyDeletehttp://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=45.166547157856016&lon=-92.65045166015625#.UwZiHYWGd8E
Snow has started falling in Red Wing after drizzle and rain most of the morning. Coming down steady but not really heavy or at least not 2-3 inch/hour rate. Dusting so far.
ReplyDeleteIf you want to keep track of the thundersnow, take a look at the lightening tracker at this site: thunderstorm.vaisala.com?explorer.html. Lightening entering southern MN.
ReplyDeleteHeavy snow in Rochester!
ReplyDeleteCan not see out office window in Eagan. Easily 1.5 inch hour.
ReplyDeleteThunder in Roch! So Cool!
ReplyDeleteThe accumulation is not happening as quickly as the chicken littles would have us believe. I'm in St Paul at my office. There's a hill across the street that's angled just perfectly so the snow melts quickly when the sun comes out. A big patch of grass was visible this morning. I can still see some of of the grass.
ReplyDeleteHuttner's pissing his pants as usual though.
Bring it!! This rocks!! Bring the whole dang pile of white bliss!! Dancing......
ReplyDeleteLooks like the shield of precip over the metro is finally starting to twist/tilt westward. I imagine that's a good sign for heavy snow?
ReplyDeleteThis storm is WEAK, snow has been falling at varying intentisy with only slushy roads, what happen to the heavy snow with 1-2 inches per hour. Only 1.5" here in Robinnsdale.
ReplyDeleteyeah, snow has been light here (St Louis Park) for the past few hours.
ReplyDeleteLooks like convection to our south robbed most of the energy for us.
Looks like we will struggle to get even 4 inches if it stays like this.
sigh...what a bust!
ReplyDeleteI'm going to predict 4-6 for St. Louis Park. This storm needs to get its act together.
ReplyDeleteWhat am I missing here? I have 2 inches on the driveway in Rosemount and the snow has tapered to lighter small flakes. Two news outlets at 5:00 just said 8-12" would not be uncommon by midnight. What are these guys smoking? Rosemount will be lucky to have 4" by morning. I assumed the mets would start walking back their predictions or deflecting somewhat...not the case so far. The spin they put on after a bust is always entertaining!
ReplyDeleteI should note that 8-12 claim was for the metro.
DeleteI still have a hard time understanding why people are calling this a bust.. Here in Farmington, we have received 3-4 inches since 2pm with the initial 1 inch melting. We still have 6-8 hours of moderate to heavy snow fall tapering to light snow Friday morning. If we average 1"/hr for the next 6-8 I would say this was forecasted well. Be patient people.
ReplyDeleteHappens every storm. Don't get me wrong, storms bust, but its too soon to bring out that word when it looks like 6 to 8 more hours of moderate to heavy snow.
DeleteWe're already at 5-6 inches in Carver County, not to mention all the snow that melted as it fell this morning/afternoon. It's going to wrap up here sooner, yes, but if it snows through 10:00, we'll have 7-10 inches. It's coming down about 1"/hr.
DeleteUnless the NWS is right in predicting 1-2"/hr snow for the next few hours, it certainly looks -- if not a bust -- an overpredicted storm.
DeleteAs of 6pm the total at MSP is 2.4"!
Patience is always good to have, but again you cannot help but comparing what they were saying this morning with what has happened so far.
For example the NWS had tweeted earlier today to expect about 5 inches on the ground by the evening commute.
It is true that people do get impatient and frustrated too soon sometimes, but who contributes to that?
If (again NWS) you put put a prediction that says 10-18 for the core metro area (as they had earlier this morning) and then by 6pm the official amount is 2.4" I guess you can be as patient as you want, but it is hard not to feel like it was a little busted.
Or not?
There is no doubt the storm moved in slower than forecasted last night/this morning. Still think there is a good chance most of the metro ends up with 8 to 12".
Deletehot off the presses...NWS just updated their snowfall map and still have eastern metro in 12-15, core metro 10-12, and west metro 8-10
DeleteOnly about 5 inches as far as I can tell here in Red Wing, however, still coming down heavy, crashes all around town, some of the roads are being blocked and now the power is out for part of the town. Only took 5 inches. If we got (or get) the 12+ they were talking about it could get ugly here
ReplyDeleteAs with all snowstorms, I'll believe it when I see it. I really hate being a weather and snow lover sometimes.
ReplyDeleteit appears the defamation zone has set up right over the metro and will be there for a few hours. Radar looks good and confirms this. Per Randy Hill tweet...1-2" per hour for a while
ReplyDeleteLooks to me like this storm has slowed down over the past hour, with the snow cutoff hardly making any movement eastward as it continues to spin.
ReplyDeleteAlso worth noting just how strong the low is, which of course is the reason behind the blizzard warnings. Currently 981mb forecasted to be 976 in a few hours. Thats pretty much a category 1 hurricane over Central Wisconsin.
ReplyDeleteSnow is beautiful...caked on everything and snowing hard in Golden Valley!
ReplyDelete7.5" so far here in Somerset give or take...it's starting to blow so hard the trees are bent sideways The drifts out here in the country are going to unbelievable....
ReplyDeleteRoughly about 18 hours since the first flakes flew, its still snowing...albeit a light snow. 9" here in Eden Prairie.
ReplyDeleteDr. Novak kudos to you, I tip my hat you were the FIRST to see the higher potential of this storm for the metro(MSP) and the FIRST to predict the higher totals(yes others followed suit), your 8-12 band seems spot on with all the snowfall numbers coming in....including MSP International which at 12am reported 8.4(which will not be the final tally since its still snowing).
I guess now onto the cold....there are some impressively cold numbers being forecasted for next week, NWS says records could be threatened. Some are dubbing it Polar Vortex lll .
I'm calling it 10" for MSP International(officially 9.9").....impressive storm...it had everything from 1/4 mile visibility in heavy snow to 40+ mph winds to thunder and lightning.
ReplyDeleteI do have one negative comment......for all of you who were calling bust on this storm SO EARLY in the game....WTF!....yes storms do bust but my advice is let the storm play out before you open your mouth....now you just look like fools....this storm delivered pretty much on all fronts...except maybe when the numbers were starting to get out of hand(I believe I saw/heard 18" on the top end for parts of the metro).
exactly what I was saying all day yesterday. I have a good recipe for Crow if anyone wants it....
DeleteActually I think the 18" numbers are more an error in the display/understanding of the point forecast. When it stated 4-8 during the day and 6-10 during the evening, normally the higher end during the day would lead towards the lower end during the evening.
DeleteLooking at the archived zone forecasts, the forecast for Minneapolis was 10-12", which is what occurred:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=ZFP&node=KMPX
And looking at the archive of Winter Storm Warnings, they consistently stated 6-12" all day yesterday.
This storm appeared to track just a bit further west than expected; hence the impressive snow totals in the western metro & points further west like STC, MKT, BRD, etc. People in western WI are likely upset since they did not receive the jackpot like we all had predicted. However, areas near DLH & Ashland, WI really got hammered. So, the storm behaved about as well as we could've expected given the circumstances.
ReplyDeleteWhat is frustrating is when a storm pulses. Bands of heavy snow develop & dissipate, just like lines of T'Storms. This occurred right over the MSP metro late in the afternoon & fooled quite a few people. This is nearly impossible to predict.
Down here in Rochester I believe we got 9-10 inches. Hard to tell With the heavy wet snow followed by the high winds we lost power in many parts of the city. We lost power twice here and the power has flickered on/off a few times this morning and the winds continue to howl. You throw in the snow from last Saturday's and Monday's events and we got well over a foot of snow just these last 6 days! Now here comes another batch of arctic air! Thunder snow, blizzard conditions, huge drifts,and on and on. What a winter!
ReplyDeleteI completely agree with Novak's comment above. However, while the snowfall totals did end up validating many of the forecasted projections, I think many of the mets actaully got lucky with their forecasted totals, and here's why. This system did not produce these totals in the way that many of the meteorologists initially suggested. The system was VERY slow to get organized, and the initial surge of moisture streaked across western & centeral MN. If you watch the radar loop from the afternoon, that moisture streaking across MN just continued to intensify as it began to slowly fill in to the east. As it began to fill in to the East over the Twin Cities, we had 2+ hours of a rain/sleet mix before completely changing over to snow by 3:00. This also was not in the forecast, and likely robbed the twin cities of a couple of inches of snow. By 6:00, the western edge of the snow shield was within 100 miles of the twin cities and most locations had 2-5 inches. Then came the part that was simply unbelievable. As the low deepened over Wisconsin, the snow shield just sat, and sat, and sat. There was rotation, but it was moving so little that the snow really began to pile up from 6:00-12:00. I did not see one meteorlogical forecast that showed the system just squat down on top of the metro and not move - as heavy bands just kept developing and dissipating. Because of this system stalling on top of us, we received the snow totals that were in line with the initial forecasts. Had this system not slowed down an acted like the models suggested, I think we would have seen a lot of 3-6 inch totals.
ReplyDeleteI am a snow lover, and I LOVED that the dry slot moved in over Wisconsin and not over us!
The storm had always been predicted to strengthen over Wisconsin.
ReplyDeleteTo me it looked like a matter of the slow down and the further west displacement of the heavier bands with the initial surge of moisture.
Originally 3pm-9pm was supposed to be the height of the storm with 1+"/h rates.
MSP at 6 pm had 2.4". 6 hours later at midnight it had 8.4. So exactly 6 inches in 6 hours for a perfect average of 1"/h.
One can say that the height of the storm simply moved 3 hrs later: 6pm-midnight instead of 3pm-9pm.
So I am not sure I agree with you 100% that the system delivered the totals in a different way than originally forecast, but I certainly agree with you that it slowed down, and as a snow lover myself, I totally agree with you and loved that the dry slot moved over Wisconsin!
Awesome storm.....10 inches in Golden Valley.....Im beat and tired after the graveyard shift and sitting in traffic and then shovel/blow for two hours....Im hitting the sack with earplugs because the kiddos are home due to the damn schools cancelling.
ReplyDeleteThough I would like to have abit of fun with numbers...I too tired to find out....but Im sure one of u fellow snowlovers can find out, since the snow has been around since early December....what is the longest stretch of snowcover at MSP and what is the record for snow depth at MSP, since it seems like were approaching 30", its been so cold the snow hasnt melted much nor will according to all long range models.
Also btw @Bill and @Duane.......Minnesota 61....Jersey......57......its a back and forth barn burner.....but the spread isnt covered, so keep the white coming!
Novak is the only one who got this right, who actually put out a forecast showing these snowfall totals and not just showing us what the models were predicting.
ReplyDeleteThis shows what a heat island the Twin Cities are, at least at the official recording station at the airport. The TC average temperature for this winter is more than 2 degrees warmer than Eau Claire and 4 degrees warmer than St. Cloud. I live down near Lakeville and it's definitely been colder down here most days/nights this winter when compared to the official temperatures at the airport.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mpx&storyid=100665&source=0
You make a good point. I have often thought that the official temperature data were misleading as compared to many of the suburbs. I just checked current temps in your area. Lakeville is 10 degrees and the official temperature in Minneapolis is 14 degrees.
DeleteDoes anyone know why the official reading doesn't come out of the NWS office, it used to for many years.......why the change back?.......I would think Chanhassen is a more accurate reading of what is going on around the TC then the airport.
DeleteOn the weather front I'm hearing rumblings of a potential storm for next weekend....Novak, Duane, or Randyinchamplin whats your take?
Aviation safety is why most ASOS stations are at airports. Sure they report temperature, but more importantly the observations include things like visibility, precip (eg freezing rain at airport but snow at Chanhassen), and cloud coverage/height.
DeleteThe reporting station was never at Chanhassen. It moved from downtown Minneapolis to the airport.
Deleteabsolutely wrong.
DeleteThe official reporting station for temps and precip has been at Chanassen from 2000 to 2004.
@ bigdaddy to answer your question about next weekend. I have been watching the GFS and GEM operational models vs their ensemble means at the 500mb level. The ensemble means have been showing a stronger southeastern ridge than the operational runs. I was thinking that the GFS operational was holding the ridge in place a bit longer that would happen thus giving us a winter storm, while the GEM operational was breaking the ridge down to fast and taking the storm track way to far south. While I was typing this the GFS model came in and has a major hit over IA. I think this is more likely to be closer to reality. After all, that has been the pattern this winter when we get a cold dome of air over us. However as we get into the 2nd and 3rd weeks of March all bets are off.
ReplyDeleteI Hope that all makes sense.
Thanks Randy, so in other words cold and dry for the foreseeable future, not what I wanted to hear......was hoping for some more white gold. I know some of you have had enough winter already but our summers are hot enough another month of winter won't kill anyone.
Delete@bigdaddy, to answer one of your questions January 23, 1982 holds the record for snow depth at MSP with 38". As of today we are at 23" with no real melting in sight, so if we happen to receive another major winter storm before any warm-up we could threaten that record or at least make a run at it.
ReplyDeleteAll: I had to change requirements for posting comments because of spam. I changed it to "registered" so those commenting as "Anonymous" may not longer be able to do so. If you're have any problems, email me at mnforecaster@gmail.com
ReplyDelete