Thursday, March 6, 2014
Sub-Zero Cold Wanes, What's Next on the Weather Horizon?
After a barrage of brutal cold fronts bludgeoned the fine state of Minnesota, it now appears the sub-zero weather is done and a warm up of some magnitude is on the way. Use this space to share thoughts on upcoming warmth and any possible snow (or rain) storms that may be on the horizon.
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Possible El Nino in 2014
ReplyDeletehttp://www.wunderground.com/news/el-nino-enso-warming-ocean-pacific-drought-hurricane-20140306
For those of you that think winter is over for us, think again. A major system is set to impact the areas south and east of us next Tuesday and Wednesday. The Euro is the strongest solution , but looking at the GEM and GFS ensemble means, they seem to support it. That could dump major snows over the area just south and east of Chicago. Best guess at this time as we get closer to the 3rd or 4th week of March it will be our turn.
ReplyDeleteIts done Randy, give it up! Who cares if it snows south and east of Chicago. With all do respect we don't live south and east Chicago and believing what MAY happen tje 3rd or 4th week of March is like believing what a 15-day GFS has to say.(a la Paul Huttner)
DeleteWhy the hate for Randy? That's what makes this blog so much fun. I love the guessing and predicting from the regulars. Personally I am hoping that it does warm up. Many businesses need a better Spring than last year.
DeleteStill plenty of cold air to come. The ridge west/trough east pattern isn't done yet. Should set back up after the Great Lakes/NE storm next week.
ReplyDeleteCWY, tommorrow will be the only day over the next 7-10 days with a temperature not close to freezing, the rest of the days will be near or in some cases much higher then 32, with several days featuring 40+, couple that with a storm track nowhere near the upper midwest, and what your left with is a slow but steady climb into spring with no major speed bumps along the way. There will not be a repeat of last spring with snowstorms till April and May.
DeleteThose of you who claim winter is over, and those of you claim winter is not done.
ReplyDeleteBy definition one group will be right and the other wrong, but it would be like flipping a coin.
I think we can both agree that we have had plenty of evidence this winter that anything more than 2-3 days out is just pure speculation.
And we know for sure that weather conditions can change really quickly here.
If I remember correctly (I think it was March 2008) we had a big snow-storm (9+ inches) around the 29th or 30th, when the high the day before was 52-56 degrees depending on the location.
So even having days in the 50s and 60s would not mean anything.
As a snow lover I would certainly hope @CWY2190 is right, but I also think that we all have to respect Mother Nature and see what happens, without pretending to be smarter than her.
We just do not know what is going to happen within the next 3-6 weeks. Period.
Almost every long range guidance shows warmth, be it the GFS,CFS or EURO more highs in the 40's and 50's then 20's and 30's. Winter is dead, wake-up and smell spring you winter/snow lovers, you had your ride and what a ride it was, but now its time for Old Man Winter to go hibernate.
ReplyDeleteAgain, you may very well be right. But you are missing the point, I was trying to make,
ReplyDeleteIt does NOT matter what the models show 10-15 days out because that is most certainly wrong, as they have been wrong all winter, all summer etc etc.
You can go to the very interesting model verification page of the Environmental Modeling Center of the NWS and see for yourself.
I am simply saying that accurately predicting the weather beyond 4-5 days is pure speculation. We just do not currently have the technology, the knowledge. and the computing power for that. Like we cannot predict earthquakes.
So to me your statement that winter is dead (although may turn out to be correct) is just pure speculation. Like saying next winter will be milder than average. Possibly, but there is no conclusive evidence for or against it.
Case in point. All I have been hearing over the past month or so is how March temperatures are going to be below to well below average. However, the forecast after today pretty much states average to well above average temperatures for at least the next week. This morning's NWS discussion also talks about the possibility of a couple inches or snow or a whole lot of snow south of the Twin Cities next Tuesday/Wednesday. Forecasting is basically the same as estimated guessing, especially two days or more in the future.
DeleteCorrection. I meant to say above average, not well above average temperatures.
DeleteExactly dude, SOUTH of the Twin Cities, did you hear yourself, let me repeat it, snow south of the Twin Cities. The weather is warming and the storm track is not favoring the Twin Cities, or are you another individual that cares that it snows south and east of TC, they referenced I-90 and North Iowa.
Delete@9:53 AM, in the future please fully read and comprehend posts before responding. It is very clear that the poster at @6:46 AM was referencing the issues of warmer than previously advertised temperatures and how weather forecasting is akin to guessing. Your response is baffling in that it in no way is germane to what the poster wrote.
DeleteI'd say there's a 50/50 chance of spring being here for good. And a 50/50 chance of winter returning. And a 50/50 chance of people speculating about weather in the next two weeks being right.
ReplyDeleteKeep it civil guys. Some of these comments are getting borderline nasty.
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, for those of you that saw my idea of a winter storm impacting area's south and east of here, and wonder why I would mention that, I would like to point out that it means the battle between cold air and warm air is still taking the storm track to the south, eventually that should move north.
ReplyDeleteMost of what I going to talk about I get from a password protected site, so I cant post links. But when talking about forecasting out about 2-3 weeks you can't get caught up in minor details, one has to look at the ensemble forecast and other telleconection indices to see where troughs and ridges will be likely to set up.
So what is a ensemble forecast? Its different than the operational forecast runs that most people talk about. The GEM and GFS have 21 members and the Euro has 51. Each of the ensemble members are fed slightly different data when they initialize to see how it will affect the forecast down the road, an error at the beginning should make large differences as time goes on. Each one of the models than produces a ensemble mean forecast, most of what I touch on is based on 500mb heights.
Telleconnections are some indices that are also looked at, and for the last few days the GFS ensemble means has been showing a negative Pacific North American Oscillation, which would mean a trough should set up over the western part of the CONUS, a pattern that we have seen precious little of so far this year, (see the drought in CA.)
At any rate all three of the major ensemble forecast models are now showing a rather strong trough forming over the western CONUS at the 500mb level which should produce a ridge over the eastern CONUS. While the signal isn't strong for the se ridge it is hinting at it, as a matter of fact there is a hint that a strong surface ridge will set in and I expect the signal for the se ridge at 500mb will get stronger as time goes on. The time frame I'm talking about is March 18-24th. During this time all three models have 850mb temps cold enough for snow on their ensemble means forecast.
Now to be perfectly honest with you, no one can say for certain this far out where a storm will track, but the idea of a western lakes cutter is not out of the question.
One other thing that I quickly checked is the MJO forecast, which looks at convection over the worlds oceans, at this time it looks to go to a very neutral sate so that shouldn't have a major impact. Some of you may remember a couple years ago that ACCU weather and several other long range forecaster's where predicting a winter from hell for Chicago, well they all wrong as the major driver that winter was the MJO.
Sorry for any bad grammer or spelling errors.
Very solid post. It needs to be clear when meteorologists/weather enthusiasts talk about two weeks out, we aren't talking about "Minneapolis will get 12 inches of snow on March 27th", but you can say "the pattern appears to support a scenarios that often produces large spring storms for the Plains/Midwest."
DeleteThose were examples. I haven't looked to see what the ECMWF ensembles have been showing. I know they are still trying to keep some through over/near Hudson Bay for the next 10 days or so.
Just for S#$%@ and giggles, I listed the local TV mets high temp predictions during the Friday morning show, at 6:00am. Granted, by 6:00pm Friday they had already changed their predictions. Three days out, they should have it nailed down, you would think.
ReplyDeleteChannel Saturday Sunday Monday
4 25 45 44
5 23 40 43
9 25 41 42
11 25 40 42
One thing that I left out of the previous post is the EPO which has been our driver of cold air this year, is also forecast to once again go strongly negative. The 09/12z model runs now are in a 10 day window which includes the 18th of March.
ReplyDeleteThe GFS,GGEM and Euro ensemble means are all quite similar in depicting a trough setting up over the northern part of the central USA due mostly to the -EPO. The operational runs of the GGEM and Euro closely follow their ensemble mean, while the GFS operational digs the trough south, all the way into TX, this I feel is wrong (the operational GFS.)
All three operational runs throw up a ridge to the South and East of us extending as far north as MI. While at the same time drop a clipper system in from the NW. Because the operational GFS digs the trough way to far south it keeps this clipper less amped and more progressive. However the GGEM and the Euro operational slam this clipper into the ridge causing it to strengthen. At this time, and of course its way to early to tell for certain if this will develop as currently modeled, the Euro drops wagons full of snow for Duluth, while the GGEM drops it here over the metro.
While I normally don't get this specific in the 10 day to 2 week forecast, I thought it may worth while to do so, especially since so many posters here have proclaimed winter to be dead. Looks like old man winter may have a good blow or two left in his lungs.
Keep preaching Randy, I'm listening and hopeful. Also did anyone catch Dave Dahls blog entry tonight....I know I know looks familiar to some past ones where theres always some storm to affect Minnesota with significant snow,anyway he was pretty adamant about a storm affecting us around St. Pats day....crossing fingers!
ReplyDeleteI will keep an eye on things, for instance the GFS (10/0z run) is now hinting at a major hit for us, but it's right at the truncation point, where it goes into a much lower resolution from 192 hrs on.
DeleteAgain the reason I have posted extensively is to counteract the (and I may butcher this word) the warministas that were sure that winter was over with, I have yet to see any of those post a solid reason why it should be so.
@Randyinchamplin, Accuweather not following your logic, they must see it differently, the timefrme that you see wintwr returning, March 18-24, they have highs well into the 50's almost 60, in their eyes winter is over. Aren't they the professionals on weather?
Deletebwahaaaaaaaa /\ /\ /\ /\ /\
DeleteLaugh all you want but PD at Startrib posted the latest GFS and it had highs well into the 50's as well and was advertising an significant rainstorm March 22-24, funny thats within the same period in which Randyinchamplin says winter will be back. Not if the GFS has anything to do with it!
DeleteAs I've discussed many times on this site, anything beyond ten days is a crapshoot. You're better off looking at climatology than a forecast model.
DeleteI wouldn't say you're better off looking at climatology (that assumes "negative skill" in the forecast) but it's fair to say that climatology *might* be a strong competitor!
DeleteBill, this was analyzed by Nate Silver in his book. Climatology becomes more accurate after ten days.
DeleteHmm... I'll have to check that out. I'm a fan of Nate Silver but haven't read the book. In general, I do agree that mid-range/long-range is essentially worthless. Thanks!
DeleteDisco, I checked with a buddy who actually supplied some of the information used in Silver's book. And yes, you were right. Here's an interesting link that summarizes your thoughts: http://forecastadvisor.com/blog/2009/03/06/week-out-weather-forecasts/
DeleteGreat link, Bill. Thanks. This is why I shake my head and laugh when Paul Huttner posts the latest 384-hour GFS :)
DeleteNate's book is good. Certain chapters (like the ones about chess, weather, and earthquakes) are great. Others are a bit less entertaining.
I actually sent that link to Paul Huttner. I thought it might be something that would interest him.
DeleteCome on guys. You do not need Nate Silver or other books.
DeleteThe fact that climatology is a better predictor after 10 days has been known and documented for at least 20 years.
And in general the idea that highly volatile variables are better described by their long term expected values than predictive models is also well know and understood.
That is why weather services around the world utilize statistical models, (analogues match scoring etc.) alongside their standard numerical models.
And I am sure Paul Huttner and Paul Douglas know this.
But nobody would read their blogs if did not show something interesting to hype about.
The reason I brought up Nate's book is that it was the first time I've read a very good analysis of weather forecast quality.
DeleteThe issue to me is that Huttner regularly flogs the 384-hr GFS. It's laughably wrong much of the time. And the times it's right, it's probably purely coincidental.
I think the internet in general has turned everything into hype, and weather is no exception. You have people on this blog salivating at the thought of three snowflakes falling, and looking at every conceivable model and map that could possibly reinforce that forecast. Then you walk outside and realize that weather happens regardless of the detail to which we scrutinize it.
Forecasting has obviously improved over the years, but we still regularly blow forecasts very badly, even basic forecasts like temperature. Novak has spoken many times about the difficulty in predicting precipitation and storms. Is there a limit to how good our forecasts can get, even with unlimited computational resources?
I think that's a great question. And I assume it's fair to say that future improvements would be made at small increments rather than a big breakthrough that suddenly brings a 10-day forecast into near-perfect accuracy. For one day, wouldn't it be fun to have no idea what the forecast was and just live the day like our ancestors and truly live in the moment? :-)
Delete@Disco @ Bill yes I believe there is a limit. But does it really matter to know what the weather will be like 10-15 days from now as compared to 2-3?
DeleteMost people don't even know what they are going to do tomorrow.
You could argue that it is good that large scale events like hurricanes are now predicted fairly accurately with at least a few days in advance as that does save lives. A tragedy of Galveston's magnitude would probably not happen today (luckily so), but knowing with 100% accuracy whether tomorrow will 45 vs 51 degrees is probably not of great practical use, that is does not affect people's lives that dramatically.
So, to that extent I agree that not knowing tomorrow's weather would probably be equally fine, and fun to.
So here's the challenge: let us not to follow any weather forecast, in any form, for a month and then report of how much that really made a change in our lives.
Which brings me to the last point: how many people really pay attention to the weather forecast anyway?
Really!....I think alot more people pay attention to weather then you think, maybe not the conventional way like watching the news or radio reports, but with social media, internet and most likely a weather app, most cellphones have weather on it with temps and precip chances. Your telling me your just going to walk out everday say just dressed with a short sleeve shirt and no jacket and temps lets say was running 20 degrees below average for lets say the last week of February.
DeleteWow!....Novak calling for 2-4 in the metro for tommorrow....I take that!
ReplyDeleteFoiled by the damn dry air again Novak....dude explain this to me, first it was the arctic air driving the snow south of us, now no arctic air and still the same result. A few inches here and there over the last 2-3 weeks I would have had a shot at the Snow Bowl!
DeleteWell, predicting changeover from rain to snow is a nightmare for me & many other forecasters. That is why it is more challenging to predict accumulating snow in the Spring season than in the Winter season.
ReplyDeleteAs I was viewing temps last night, I was worried because values in Northern MN were still in the upper 30s. In other words, no obvious reservoir of Arctic air to pull from. Model data continued to show cold air quickly funneling into this storm during the AM hours, but obviously a few hours too early. Quite frankly, I should've known better & taken snow out of the forecast entirely for the MSP metro. Hell, I'm even considering pulling accumulating snow out of the forecast for ALL of so. MN. However, it appears that the changeover is starting to occur now. It is truly a timing thing & an hour or two can make a huge difference.
In my mind, this is a true BUST forecast on my end since the southern MSP metro will likely experience all rain and NO snow.
Decided to put this here as opposed to a reply in the above dicso.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure some of you have seen the 03/11 12z run of the operational GFS as yet once again it has a major rain event for us. This is what it looks like at 240 hrs out, notice the location of the surface low over the northern plains, ie: the Dakotas.
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/US/gfsUS_sfc_prec_240.gif
Now take a look at what the ensemble means show for the same run at the same time.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014031112/gfs-ens_mslp_wind_namer_41.png
Given that its telleconections show a very strong negative PNA (Pacific North American Oscillation) and a very strong negative EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) I would expect that the ensemble means will be closer to reality than its operational. Where that low will kick out, if it should verify is very much up in the air.
Just peeked at the Euro ensemble forecast for 850 mb temps and 500mb heights, it's completely on board for a strong -EPO ridge up in the Alaska Gulf, according to that guidance the last time we will see 850 mb temps above freezing will be this coming Thursday.
Winter might be waning here in Minnesota, but it's still going strong in many parts of the northeast. A friend of mine lives in Caribou, Maine. They are getting hammered again with a huge snowstorm. Even more interesting is the fact that their high temperatures through next Tuesday, with one exception, are predicted to be in the teens to low 20's with lows in the single digits to around zero. Our snowpack is rapidly melting while theirs continues to grow.
ReplyDeleteWinter IS waning here, not might. Arctic air is gone, snow hasn't fallen in the metro in over 3 weeks and is not forecasted to 10 days out. After today temperatures will be +/- 5 degrees of average for the forseeable future with no major snow systems.March is as quiet and tame as can be with a gentle slid into spring.
ReplyDeleteRandyinchamplin since your declaring winter will come back, what do you have to say about Paul Huttner declaring the weather pattern is inhospitable for any major (snow)storms the next two weeks with several 40+ temps.
ReplyDeleteThe same Paul Huttner that had been declaring the last 80s, then the last 70s, etc, at last 5 times for all last summer and fall, only to be proven wrong a week after.
ReplyDeletePersonally I think he inserts too much wishful thinking in his forecast blog, which is a dangerous thing for a met.
It certainly took awhile, but the 13/0z model run of the operational GFS has come into my line of thinking, and is finally buying into it's own teleconnections. Now lets see if it holds. Keep in mind that by 3/15 the average high temp here reaches 41°.
ReplyDeletehttp://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmsp
March has been pretty wimpy. What a sudden switch from the pattern that we were in since the first of December. March is our second snowiest month and the way things are going we won't have any accumulating snow at all this month. The weather in Minnesota sure is interesting....and unpredictable. I believe that the national weather service was calling for a cold March. It's supposed to be near 50 degrees again today, which is several degrees above normal. So much for long range forecasts.
ReplyDeleteCurrently 4 degrees below average for March. The next week looks to be near normal with the end of March looking cold. Think its going to verify.
DeleteNovak says next week will be "active", whatever that means! I would have to say Novak had a good winter predicting snowfalls until March hit, but March has been a struggle for him. At times saying it will be quiet and then putting up snow maps, then saying it will be south of MSP then include MSP and eventually it missed MSP, has happened 2-3 times this March also that 3-12 inch snowfall for southern MN last week he didnt have a map up till it was snowing. In his own words he has said March is tough to forecast so we'll wait and see what happens. One advice Novak don't rely on the NAM sooooo much.
ReplyDeleteSome encouraging news reading the NWS discussion this evening if your still looking for snowfall like I am. First off NWS has snow chances from Sunday night thru Wednesday night and they speak of an significant snow event Tuesday/Wednesday somewhere in the Upper Mississippi Valley. We'll see how this all plays out.....but Randyinchamplin I applaud you for seeing this potential first.
ReplyDeleteHot off the press: a new video with Dr. Novak. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DE0qyKSCSWo
ReplyDelete