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Seven months after the fire was officially contained on Oct. 24, 2013, the scars from the disaster are still fresh. Stacks of cut wood remain along Highway 120, which itself was saved from damage by backfires set by firefighters.
To a former Minnesotan, the vast brown, burnt and bare landscape is an alarming sight. To a native Californian, it’s a reminder that fires are an integral part of the forest’s cycle of life.
Still, this fire was noteworthy. It burned 400 square miles and cost more than $127 million to suppress. Sadly, it was started a by hunter’s illegal fire that went out of control.
The following pictures were taken on May 31, 2014 at the Stanislaus National Forest’s Rim of the World vista point:
Great pictures Bill! So sad to see such beautiful places damaged by fire and drought. So many areas in the southwest are in such bad need of rain. The bad news is, they probably won't see much anytime soon. The good news is, they will likely start seeing an uptick as we get into fall and winter. El Nino times are usually good rain producers but it's moreso in the fall and winter seasons. Closer to home, we do probably dry out for a while. Far southern MN may see some storms Tuesday night on the far northern fringes of what looks to be quite the powerful system that will race across Nebraska and Iowa Tuesday evening. The way the model data looks now, I fully expect a high risk to be issued for severe storms near where the current moderate risk is. Parameters are pretty high for a fairly significant severe weather event for our neighbors to the south and southwest. Also, precipitable water values are pretty high for those areas, so I would expect flooding to be a pretty big concern as well as this system rolls through. Again, while the southern tier or two of counties may see some storms, the bulk of the action will remain to our south.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Duane.
Delete@Bill, thanks for sharing those photos..... as for MN weather the streak continues....barely...but the consecutive cooler then average months has now hit 7 months with May coming in -0.6°. So will the streak continue?......June so far is running above average, but yesterdays real cool day knocked that down some and this week looks to be slightly below as well.....so as we get to mid-month we could be running near average....what happens afterwards is anyones guess.....but any day that runs below average this time of year is a beautiful day without the muggies. You cant ask for a much better day then today with perfect overnight 'open ur window' sleep temperatures near 50° this morning with afternoon highs in the low 70's and low humidity and a NW breeze......picture perfect Sunday.....enjoy it everyone!!!!! I need a day like this after another heartbreaking loss for NY in hockey last night(Bill I hope ur not rooting for the Kings now, because your a Californian)
ReplyDeleteWell, it's been a long time since I posted anything here, but we may want to be attuned to the weather on Wednesday, again during the weekend, and then following, during the 8-10 day period. We have had a wet spring, but we have not had good instability (ie cape) coupled with wind shear, but that may be about to change. It could be a very active mid to late June.
ReplyDeleteI will try and take a look at things for Wednesday during the day on Tuesday, and post what I think. I may not get a chance to do so however.
Good luck everyone!!!
It seems like the NAM model has finally given up the ghost with bringing stronger surface based energy to just west and north of the metro, and has fallen in line with most of the other models for Wednesday. It appears that the most likely area for severe storms will exist over far western MN from say, Travese, and Big Stone counties and points south along the SD/MN border to say the Sioux Falls area.
ReplyDeleteWhile I can't rule out the Detroit Lakes, Wadena, Alexandria and Morris areas, the best threat seems to be just west of there, so if you live in those areas, you may want to pay attention around the 5pm to 9pm time frame.
I would expect the SPC will expand their slight risk area to the north to cover those counties that I mentioned in paragraph one with the day one outlook as opposed to the day two outlook from earlier on Tuesday. This covers the far western and northern counties of the MPX's area of responsibilities, once you get north and west of there please be aware of flash flooding as rainfall amount's look to be quite heavy once you get into the flat areas of the northern Red River valley.
Randy
ReplyDeleteAny idea when we see the first 90s of the year?
Sorry it took so long to respond, but looking out the next 10 days on the euro model, (that's as far out as it goes), Im seeing zero chances of seeing 90°. As a matter of fact the set up at day 10 doesn't look good for that to happen any time soon after that either. We may not see 90 until July. We seem to be locked in with the southern upper level jet staying to our south, which would mean we could continue the wet and cool pattern. However, that would not be a bad thing at all, as aquifers could get recharged before a El Nino pattern sets in this fall, which may lead us into warmer and dryer winter. Remember, the last two warm season periods started off wet, and than we went into a flash drought.
DeleteWoo-hoo.....keep preaching the good word Randy.....love it when the 90's stay away. Just thought of a trivia question.....whats the latest we have gone into the spring/summer season without an 90° recorded?
DeleteSeems to me there's been a summer when it never hit 90... but I could be wrong.
DeleteMr. Bill......you are correct sir.....1902,1915, and 1993 MSP did not hit a 90° high for the spring/summer, like I said my kind of summers without the heat.
DeleteThank you very much!!! I always enjoy reading your posts.
ReplyDeleteThe outlook for interesting weather is bleak. This has been a snoozer of a year.
ReplyDeleteI never said the outlook looked bleak, just not 90° temps
DeleteI'm getting somewhat concerned about Monday evening 06/16. If the NAM and GFS latest runs are correct, it could get interesting around here. Dews are likely to get to the upper 60's with temps around 85° With cape values around 2000-2500. Now further south the cape values will be higher, but that may very well lead to capping issues. Looks to me like convection will likely break the cap up here as opposed to the south.
ReplyDeleteSomething to watch for. Stay tuned to SPC site for further convective outlooks.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
With 7 out of the last 8 days having below average temperatures from departure we are exactly even for the month of June now with half a month to go.....average highs by months end will be in the low 80's.....the forecast for the first half of the upcoming week calls for highs in the mid 80's then cooling into the mid 70's for the end of the week......but with alot of clouds around this week and rain chances it will play havoc with temperatures, so in closing I think it will come down to the last week of June to see if we continue our consecutive cooler then average month streak or it ends at 7......time will tell.
ReplyDeleteAccording to my records (which go back to 1891), May was +0.45, so the streak was either 5 or 6 depending how you interpret November 2013. That was -0.02, which I think is close enough to be average. So to me, the streak was 5 months.
Delete@Disco, not sure where you get your records from but according to the NWS Twin Cities May was 0.6 below average effectively keeping our consecutive streak of cooler then average temps going on 7 months dating back to November 2013!
DeleteThere have been several years where the Temp has not reached 90. The last one was 1993. If I remember correctly the Mt. St. Helens eruption affected the weather that year. In 1901, 1902,1903 there was only two days at 90 or above all three years. 0, 1, 1, respectively. That was most likely a good thing back before air conditioning. Looks like we might hit our first 90 this week. It also looks like the front is finally moving north so the bubble of hot air should settle over us and give us many more opportunities this summer. I will not be surprised if we exceed our normal 14 days with a few coming in September. We seem to be lagging our typical weather changeovers.
ReplyDeleteMt St Helens erupted in 1980; there were 18 days that year with a high of 90 or warmer.
DeleteYou're right about 1993. No 90s that year. We hit 89 on four days in August, three of them consecutive. The warmest July temp was only 85.
1993 May have been Mt. Pinatubo.
DeleteYes of course. 1993 was the great floods on the Mississippi. Cant reley on memory any more.
ReplyDelete@Bill, so who can help with this, are you a researcher??, is bigdaddy or disco correct on our consecutive cooler then average month streak. Just curious is all, I find it interesting that there are two sets of numbers being thrown around, which I don't think is possible, it either is or isnt, temperature averages seem pretty cut and dry to me.
ReplyDeleteHi Jason. I am not a researcher. But it sounds like people with some knowledge have come forth.
DeleteIt depends how you're measuring it and what historical range you're using. I keep records of high and low temps, and I have a script that averages each of them, and compares them to the long-term average. So for May 2014, for example, the combined hi/lo average was +0.45. The average high was -0.70 compared to the 1891-current average. The average low was +1.15.
ReplyDeleteAccording to my data, November 2013 was almost dead-on average.
I think the NWS might be using 1980-2010 for averages, or a similar, more current range than what I use. The climate has changed since 1891, but I like to look at all the data together.
The other question is, are you looking at just daily highs and lows, or hourly readings, or some other frequency?
It's really not cut and dried.
The cap was broken about 10:20 pm just sw of Hutchinson, a Meso disco is now out for MSP, not sure what to expect but things could get interesting.
ReplyDeleteBy the way nice job by all four members of the HOPWRF model in showing that, the timing was about right, the location not bad.
DeleteFrom the SPC meso disco that I mentioned earlier......"DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INTENSIFYING STORMS OVER NRN WI AND
ReplyDeleteTHE PRICE COUNTY WISCONSIN STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL PER
WDSS-II MESH IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND INTENSIFYING
CONVECTION ARE EVIDENT FARTHER WEST IN S-CNTRL MN AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT LIFTS PARCELS TO THEIR LFC. THE WIND PROFILE IS
SUPERCELL-SUPPORTIVE AND THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY ACQUIRE
STORM-SCALE ROTATION. STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY /2500 J PER KG
MUCAPE/ ACCORDING TO THE 00Z MPX RAOB WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
A LARGE HAIL THREAT AS A WARM FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY ADVANCES NWD
TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECTING ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
HAIL-PRODUCING STORMS TO DEVELOP.'
sorry they use all caps.
Mankato received almost 4 inches of rain from the storm last night. ground is very saturated and with more storms today and tomorrow flooding will be a major concern down here.
ReplyDeleteQuick question for the mets. What is the final factor in kicking off the storms last night, and the ones slated today? Last night, the storms started popping around 10PM over southern MN. Why 10PM, vs. 2:00 or 4:00 or 6:00 when the sun was baking the atmosphere? I guess I just don't understand what the last factor that causes these storms to pop. The NWS says that storms will pop between 7PM-12AM tonight. Why so late? I would have imagined the storms to start popping while the sun was still up. I was under the impression that storms tended to lose their severity and punch as the sun sets. The storms last night and tonight appear as they are setting off and strengthening without the help of the sun. Thoughts?
ReplyDeletethe CAP broke last night. The are several triggers that can "get things going" however, if the upper layers of the atmosphere are capped (warm air at all levels) T-Storm development is limited until the cap "breaks" and several factors can do this. The last night storm, tonights, and probably tomorrows will be due to the upper layer cooling as the sun sets although tomorrows activity will be due to a cold front.
DeleteThe storms you speak of - the afternoon variety, usually happens when there is no cap present or there are other factors that can erode at the cap quite quickly. The most common factor is the cold front running into the warm moist airmasses.
There is a lot of science to this and more than I know or want to get into however, it is fascinating stuff.
if there was a hall of fame for unwarranted weather watches, tonight would be exhibit 'A.'
ReplyDeleteI was looking at visible satellite this evening and the cap came close to breaking just west of the metro, I think the outlook was warranted, although this was a tough forecast.
DeleteIt's way to early to get into specs, but next weekend, say from Friday evening into Saturday evening, depending on what model you chose, things could get very interesting around here.
ReplyDeleteOne record that sure will be broken today or before June ends is most rainfall for the month of June.....the record is 11.67"(set back in 1874), we are sitting on 10.76".......a mere .91" away and with rain in the forecast practically everday for the rest of the month that record for sure should fall.
ReplyDeleteStill no 90° high yet........woo-hoo!!!..........but June is now running above average for the month, our consecutive streak may come to an end.
As this site is dedicated to good and accurate weather forecasting does anyone else think that Accuweather's month forcast is a joke. This morning they were forecasting 94 for July fourth and this afternoon it is down to 80. Why even do it? It should be embarrasing to them. They bounce tempatures all around with wild swings Is that really forecasting? Please tell me if I am missing something.
ReplyDeleteI never rely on Accuweather; I refer to them as 'innaccuweather' after learning a few years back how unreliable they are. That is why I cherish this website, and people like Novak, randyinchamplin and others who put forth far more accurate predictions and discussions. I know this site isn't as 'busy' spring/summer, but I appreciate the chance to check it for updates, discussions, and its lively winter information. I continue to thank Bill for keeping it alive after his move out west.
ReplyDeleteThanks!
DeleteI'm very concerned that a widespread severe weather outbreak will occur over much of MN this weekend, esp. Sunday. The Jet is unusually strong for this time of the year & it is slamming into the Upper Midwest as winds near the surface are coming straight from the Gulf of Mexico. This is a classic recipe for severe storms as dry air off the Rockies slams into moist air from the Gulf.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous,
ReplyDeleteI couldn't agree more with you when it comes to AccuWeather & long range forecasts in general. Once you go past the 10-14 day period, it is a crap shoot & any decent weather forecaster knows this. I believe organizations attempt to forecast months in advance to get the ratings without giving a rat's ass about their reputation.
Oh, & don't get me going about the 'Farmer's Almanac', Hurricane season forecasting & Dave Dahl's snow annual snow prediction forecasts.
Thanks for the reply, NovakWeather. I hear you. That's why I check your twitter on a regular basis and this website. You know more than a bunch of them put together, not that I don't also follow noaa. Keep keeping us up to date/informed/educated. I will definitely keep my eye on the skies in the coming days based on your worries re: severe weather.
DeleteI agree with NovakWeather about this weekend (see my post in this thread dated 6/20), but there are still many things undecided at this time. For instance will the cap break Friday or Saturday afternoon, if it does all bets are off. The cap that I'm referring to will be found around 700mb as temps at that level could be between 13-15° C, that's warm enough that any updrafts that start to develop will have a hard time breaking through that layer, but it only takes one updraft to break it, than others will follow suit.
ReplyDelete#2 There will be plenty of convection occurring around the area, say within 200 miles of any one point, will convective debris (ie blow off from those storms) keep us from seeing strong sunshine during the peak heating hours of 12 and 4pm?, if so the area will fail to see the destabilization that most models are showing.
Now my attention turns to Sunday evening, and the 06/25 12z model suite is fairly consistent with a cold front slamming into very unstable air over the MN/Dakota's border area during the late afternoon time frame. If that should happen and the models are right in their depiction of things, a severe wind threat is highly possible over much of Central and SE MN. With the soil as saturated as it is, plus with more heavy rain possible before Sunday night, I cringe at the amount of trees that could come down on homes and power lines.
One more thing about Friday and Saturday night, while we may be caped during the afternoon and early evening, a nocturnal lower level jet may develop during the overnight hours providing enough lift for heavy to severe storms during the overnight hours.
Model output will change considerably during the next two days, and this event will be a moving target, but right now if things hold, Sunday evening looks nasty.
Good stuff Randy. I agree with all of your comments.
ReplyDeleteFRI night into SAT appears to be a significant rain period as the Gulf is wide open for business. SUN looks to be the better opportunity for severe as better mid-upper air dynamics come into play.
Timing is everything & that will be the case on SUN. Need to watch closely.
New thread set up for potential significant weather this weekend.
ReplyDelete