First Arctic Siege Nears End, Winter Storm on the Horizon?

With the season's first, most premature cold spell nearing expiration, Upper Midwest weather eyes turned to the possibility of a storm for early next week. Use this space to track your thoughts on what might be spinning up.

Here's what the NWS had to say in their 10:25 a.m. update this Wednesday morning:

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY REALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TIME PERIOD OF UTMOST CONCERN...GIVEN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CRANK NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25-35 MPH /SUSTAINED/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEFORMATION SNOW TAKING PLACE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DEEPENS FURTHER AND PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHWEST TO LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL...WITH NOTABLE SNOW ACCUMS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE LACKED RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE KEY PLAYER...THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...SO HAVE KEPT SNOW CHANCES IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT.

Snowy Monday: How Much Will It Be?

As of Sunday morning, there was virtual certainty among all forecasters that an appreciable snowfall was on the way for Monday. Exactly how much, however, remained in question.

The National Weather Service seemed among the most bullish on a heavy duty snowstorm, predicting "around 10 inches" in their morning briefing. KSTP was the most conservative, predicting "just" 2-4 inches of snow for MSP (airport).

Here's a new video we produced with Patrick Hammer and Tom Novak (@NovakWeather) detailing what they see coming. Follow us on @MNForecaster on Twitter for updates.

One last note. WCCO continues to show model depictions that they're quick to qualify. In the 10 a.m. newscast, the forecaster showed a map depicting 18-24" for the Twin Cities but hastened to add, "We don't think that much snow will fall, though." In a visual medium where people may well be watching with the sound turned down, we think it's irresponsible (and lazy) for WCCO to continue to take this approach.

NWS

Fox 9

KSTP

Weather Channel

KARE11

WCCO showing a model they don't believe in (18-24")

The Curtain is Closing (on >50 that is)

It seems a distinct possibility that the 50s have run their course in the Twin Cities and much of Minnesota. It's anyone's guess when we'll again see the likes of Tuesday's 53 degrees.

Forecasters were predicting an increasingly colder pattern with several chances of early November snow. Some speculated that accumulating snow might fall early next week; others were less bullish on the possibility.

Fox 9 Website

The Weather Channel

Star Tribune