Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Is Summer Over?
With a fall-like storm winding up, one has to wonder: is summer essentially over? Heavy rain and summer chill is descending on the North Star state. Is this the beginning of the end?
This dry air is getting me excited for winter storms this year - when dry air takes over pretty much every storm and shuts down precip!!! Bring on the dry tongue!!!
You’re wondering what happened to Bill? He’s in California. Therefore, he’s probably been running around putting out fires and looking for a drink of water…while we’re enjoying a gentle rain… MM ;-)
I generally agree with the enhanced area that the Storm Prediction Center has identified, however I would extend it to the international border. If I were chasing today I would choose between three areas. #1 the Brainerd area, #2 just west of the metro, and #3 the Owatonna Albert Lea area. I have left the metro out only because of visibility problems. If you know anyone that is camping out for the NHRA races in Brainerd you may want to alert them.
Observed soundings (balloon release) from MPX, International Falls, Aberdeen and Bismark all show impressive lapse rates and all except International Falls show impressive Mixed Layered Cape values, that will change for International Falls as the day goes on.
Really looks interesting today Randy. Dew points and winds are both increasing as of 11. Predictions on when the fireworks begins - appears to be in the 4 PM area west.
I trust Novak at least as much as I trust the NWS. Novak said nothing about tornadoes yesterday (that I can tell, anyway, and I follow him on twitter and facebook). Obviously hindsight is 20/20 and weather prediction is difficult, but it seems this summer has been one bust after another.
The most destructive storm, the one with a few tornadoes across the Twin Cities (I can't remember the date), had no tornado watch. It was a tough summer.
Posted this forecast over at gopher hole, for the gopher football season opener against TCU. "First of all, I should say thank you schedule makers for a night time game. High temp on Thursday Sept 3rd should be between 88° and 92° based on the mid to low level flow. There is some discrepancy between models in regards to the dew point temperature, but I'm going with the European model which is the best that we have. So for kick off, look for surface temps around 80 to 83° and dew points in the 66-68° range. Rain chances at this time look minimal, but that could change. Believe it not, but how tropical storm Erika unfolds will have an impact on the forecast. Dew point temps that high should favor TCU, but thankfully a night time game should mitigate the effects of the high dew points."
Hey Randy, I thought that sounded like you over there! I post under GopherWeatherGuy on GopherHole and usually post game time weather predictions each week. Your forecast is inline with what I am thinking, it will be warm/humid with little chance of rain for the home opener. I can't wait as I will be at the game soaking up what's left of summer!
Randy, thanks for the heads up on your handle over there. How far in advance do you normally put one out?? I will deffer to you as your the pro, but will throw my two cents from time to time. Have a great time at Bank 1, enjoy the warmth and as part of the 12th man bring home a win!!!! GO GOPHS!
Were asked here, Is summer over? Summer is hanging tough through the Labor day holiday weekend with high dew points and temps near 90. But those who were bored this summer tracking severe weather in our neck of woods will continue to be bored with our winter weather ahead as a el nino influenced pattern will take hold=a milder,drier northern plains.
Well said. It appears the weather has become increasingly boring for the area. Severe weather season virtually non-existent since 2011. Winter lacking any significant snowstorms with season snowfall only determined by how many 2-3 inch clipper like storms you get. Really not much to be excited about lately.
With all due respect to WCCO and their top 10 weather days, I'm calling for a top 10 week starting Sunday. Highs should stay in the 70's with a couple of days hitting the low 80's. There will be a shot or two of rain chances during mid week to keep things moist. Enjoy!!! Sorry for those that would count a week in the upper 80's to mid 90's in the top ten., This could be the best week of the year.
I've given up on getting any decent severe weather this summer. I'm now just enjoying the warm September! Any nice days now are a bonus as we descend inexorably toward the coldest place in the known universe.
I wish I could share your optimistic view of a cold winter. I feel like we'll be in for a big disappointment this year. I expect a lot of 40s and 50s in December and January. With this Super El-Nino brewing it will be a misery for winter lovers like myself.
Hey Bill, hope all is well out there in California and you weren't affected by those nasty fires. Anyhow was thinking about a new thread.....maybe a discussion about how El Nino will affect Minnesotas winter this year because frankly whenever anything weather related pops up el nino is mentioned. Even our friend, Patrick Hammer, tweeted yesterday about how El Nino will affect western NY.
@bigdaddy, sorry but no winter this year----40's and 50's will rule the majority of the time, maybe two decent snowfalls, but season snowfall will be under 20". Sorry better luck next year!
Man, talk about overreaction of warm temperatures and a snowless winter. Looking at strictly El Nino based winter predictions, the last three winters that could be similar to this winter are 97-98, 87-88, and 82-83. It is true that we are likely to have above average temperatures this winter. Those winters averaged 2-4° above average. That's comparable to having a high temperature in January of 26-28 instead of the average of 24. Could there be a 50° temperature in December or January? Sure, but we'll still have temperatures below zero as well.
As for snow, MSP had 45" in 97-98, 42.4" in 87-88, and 74.4" in 82-83. Therefore MSP had two strong El Nino winters with snowfall near the 50 year average, and one that was well above average. It's still too early to make a good winter prediction, but this talk of a snowless winter is premature.
A winter like storm and a winter like conclusion. Far less precipitation than predicted.
ReplyDeleteThis dry air is getting me excited for winter storms this year - when dry air takes over pretty much every storm and shuts down precip!!! Bring on the dry tongue!!!
ReplyDeleteBill! You are alive! Wondered what happened to you all summer.
ReplyDeleteYou’re wondering what happened to Bill? He’s in California. Therefore, he’s probably been running around putting out fires and looking for a drink of water…while we’re enjoying a gentle rain… MM ;-)
DeleteI generally agree with the enhanced area that the Storm Prediction Center has identified, however I would extend it to the international border. If I were chasing today I would choose between three areas. #1 the Brainerd area, #2 just west of the metro, and #3 the Owatonna Albert Lea area. I have left the metro out only because of visibility problems. If you know anyone that is camping out for the NHRA races in Brainerd you may want to alert them.
ReplyDeleteObserved soundings (balloon release) from MPX, International Falls, Aberdeen and Bismark all show impressive lapse rates and all except International Falls show impressive Mixed Layered Cape values, that will change for International Falls as the day goes on.
Stay aware everyone!!!
Really looks interesting today Randy. Dew points and winds are both increasing as of 11. Predictions on when the fireworks begins - appears to be in the 4 PM area west.
ReplyDeleteI smell the watch being canceled.
ReplyDeleteJust like in winter, too much hype not enough bite on Saturday.
ReplyDeleteI agree. It was nothing but run-of-the-mill thunderstorms yesterday, nothing severe.
DeleteI trust Novak at least as much as I trust the NWS. Novak said nothing about tornadoes yesterday (that I can tell, anyway, and I follow him on twitter and facebook). Obviously hindsight is 20/20 and weather prediction is difficult, but it seems this summer has been one bust after another.
ReplyDeleteThe most destructive storm, the one with a few tornadoes across the Twin Cities (I can't remember the date), had no tornado watch. It was a tough summer.
Posted this forecast over at gopher hole, for the gopher football season opener against TCU. "First of all, I should say thank you schedule makers for a night time game. High temp on Thursday Sept 3rd should be between 88° and 92° based on the mid to low level flow. There is some discrepancy between models in regards to the dew point temperature, but I'm going with the European model which is the best that we have. So for kick off, look for surface temps around 80 to 83° and dew points in the 66-68° range. Rain chances at this time look minimal, but that could change. Believe it not, but how tropical storm Erika unfolds will have an impact on the forecast. Dew point temps that high should favor TCU, but thankfully a night time game should mitigate the effects of the high dew points."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gopherhole.com/
Deleteopps.. over there I am rpgopherfan
DeleteHey Randy, I thought that sounded like you over there! I post under GopherWeatherGuy on GopherHole and usually post game time weather predictions each week. Your forecast is inline with what I am thinking, it will be warm/humid with little chance of rain for the home opener. I can't wait as I will be at the game soaking up what's left of summer!
DeleteRandy, thanks for the heads up on your handle over there. How far in advance do you normally put one out?? I will deffer to you as your the pro, but will throw my two cents from time to time. Have a great time at Bank 1, enjoy the warmth and as part of the 12th man bring home a win!!!! GO GOPHS!
DeleteWere asked here, Is summer over? Summer is hanging tough through the Labor day holiday weekend with high dew points and temps near 90. But those who were bored this summer tracking severe weather in our neck of woods will continue to be bored with our winter weather ahead as a el nino influenced pattern will take hold=a milder,drier northern plains.
ReplyDeleteWell said.
ReplyDeleteIt appears the weather has become increasingly boring for the area.
Severe weather season virtually non-existent since 2011.
Winter lacking any significant snowstorms with season snowfall only determined by how many 2-3 inch clipper like storms you get.
Really not much to be excited about lately.
With all due respect to WCCO and their top 10 weather days, I'm calling for a top 10 week starting Sunday. Highs should stay in the 70's with a couple of days hitting the low 80's. There will be a shot or two of rain chances during mid week to keep things moist. Enjoy!!! Sorry for those that would count a week in the upper 80's to mid 90's
ReplyDeletein the top ten., This could be the best week of the year.
Randy or whomever, can you tell me when the cooler temps(50's/60`s) will stick? Friday and Saturday were AWESOME!
ReplyDeleteI've given up on getting any decent severe weather this summer. I'm now just enjoying the warm September! Any nice days now are a bonus as we descend inexorably toward the coldest place in the known universe.
ReplyDeleteI wish I could share your optimistic view of a cold winter.
DeleteI feel like we'll be in for a big disappointment this year.
I expect a lot of 40s and 50s in December and January. With this Super El-Nino brewing it will be a misery for winter lovers like myself.
Hey Bill, hope all is well out there in California and you weren't affected by those nasty fires. Anyhow was thinking about a new thread.....maybe a discussion about how El Nino will affect Minnesotas winter this year because frankly whenever anything weather related pops up el nino is mentioned. Even our friend, Patrick Hammer, tweeted yesterday about how El Nino will affect western NY.
ReplyDelete@bigdaddy, sorry but no winter this year----40's and 50's will rule the majority of the time, maybe two decent snowfalls, but season snowfall will be under 20". Sorry better luck next year!
ReplyDeleteAgreed. This could be the winter we challenge the record for least snowy winter ever, which I believe is 14.2 (1930-31).
DeleteMan, talk about overreaction of warm temperatures and a snowless winter. Looking at strictly El Nino based winter predictions, the last three winters that could be similar to this winter are 97-98, 87-88, and 82-83. It is true that we are likely to have above average temperatures this winter. Those winters averaged 2-4° above average. That's comparable to having a high temperature in January of 26-28 instead of the average of 24. Could there be a 50° temperature in December or January? Sure, but we'll still have temperatures below zero as well.
ReplyDeleteAs for snow, MSP had 45" in 97-98, 42.4" in 87-88, and 74.4" in 82-83. Therefore MSP had two strong El Nino winters with snowfall near the 50 year average, and one that was well above average. It's still too early to make a good winter prediction, but this talk of a snowless winter is premature.
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