Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
Wednesday, January 27, 2016
Eyeing a Possible Storm for Next Week
Although it's days off, model data suggests there's a system to watch for next week that could result in significant snow for Minnesota. We asked Tom Novak from @novakweather for his thoughts at this early juncture. And thanks to viewer questions!
Great video guys! Really looking forward to seeing how this pans out. A few other things to keep in mind as we move forward.
The temperature profile, at this point, looks great for snow growth. The colder temperatures aloft will be great for dendrite (snowflake) growth. So, even a quarter inch of liquid could put down 3-6 inches of snow.
The wind still looks to be a factor, pretty much regardless of the track. While this may not be as big of a deal for the protected areas, the open areas of southern Minnesota would be dealing with bad driving conditions with a minimal amount of snow. It looks to be light and fluffy, so easy for the wind to move it. I feel like every year we try to drive that point home. It doesn't take much snow to cause headaches.
I'm not sure how many folks look at pretty much everything out there, but I certainly try to look at everything. There are ensemble runs of the Euro and GFS that show even more solutions. Looking at how they are clustered and comparing them to the operational version of their model is definitely helpful. If people don't look at them, I would encourage it.
The 00z GFS data is just about to start rolling in, and will take a solid 30-45 minutes to get to that time frame. It is good to watch for general trends now, but the real key time to hone in on what the models are showing will be on Monday.
Great video, thanks for asking my question. I always enjoy Dr. Novak and his passion. His answer on the misses this year was good. It has been around 50 mile misses. I'm riding with the GFS on this storm and am looking forward to runs in a couple of days. I think it's a little easier to predict east coast storms since there is a little more data available if the storm crosses the US. Should be a fun weekend on the blog here.
It should also be noted that there were 4 balloon launches a day as that system was coming across, as opposed to the 2 a day that are normally done. More information = better forecast model output.
Bill and Tom. There is a new weather model site out there that is free. It actually shows the GFS thought based on the Kuchera method which is more accurate. If you chose the regional view it gives you what the GFS model thinks for selected areas in a numerical value. User be ware the GEM model on this site is still uses a 10:1 ratio, which is what I think the map represents in the title of this thread.
I really want to take a stab as to why the Euro crashes this system into what appears to be a strong surface high. The answer lies in the 300mb charts down through 700mb, in other words the steering winds. The ridge aloft is not nearly as strong as what the surface shows. As the storm matures and takes on a negative tilt, it will pull the surface low into that surface ridge to our north. I really think that at least some of the metro will get heavy snow with strong winds. My worry based on the Euro solutions is that this system may move to fast aloft in relation to the surface low, which would mean the surface would lose it's upper level support thus cutting down on the QPF.
Of course the other problem with weaker ridgeing aloft is that the trough may not take on a negative tilt. This seems to be what the 01/28 0z run showed.
Great video, and thanks for asking my question Bill. Much appreciated. 06z GFS held serve and seems to really tie in the northern stream, giving the MSP metro a nice swath of snow. The 0z Euro in the other hand made its biggest move yet to the SE which would shift the heavy snow away from the metro. As mentioned numerous times, the models are going to bounce around until the energy crashes into CA. We should get a little better idea on model consensus over the Pacific as the energy gets picked up by the network.
Writing is already on the wall for this one, everybody wants to take a wait and see approach and that's fine but many of you who are the experts here can see the trends. Dave Dahl saw it and mentioned as well as the NWS, Euro taking this south and east and sparing the metro of heavy snow. Sorry metro snow lovers foiled again, but you have been disappointed many times already this year so I guess your used to it. There's always March, March typically has a large snowstorm or two. But were about to end a atypical January with below average snowfall and above average temperatures so I guess I doesn't really know what March will bring. And lost in all of this "storm" chatter, hey what do you think about that six day thaw were in, pretty nice huh.
One 'bad' model run isn't a trend. And I'm sure you're aware that the Euro is 0-for-3 this winter on big storms. So yes, let's wait and see. The 06z GFS moved the snow NW. I guess that's a trend too. But you failed to mention that.
Because we all know the Euro is King and the GFS is good for speculation! And the Euro in fact did have the east coast snowstorm first and was consistent throughout, it failed in its qpf for southern NY but nailed Philadelphia on south.
I'm sorry but that isn't true. The Euro caved to the GFS and NAM regarding the latest east coast storm. The Euro was obviously in on it early (the general consensus a week out was amazing) but the GFS and NAM (lol) won that battle.
And as MNwx mentioned the Euro is 0 for 3 on Midwest storms this year and in general has not performed very well at all this winter. Many people on AmWx have said this.
Anyway, I fail to see how the writing is on the wall for this one considering the system is still hanging out near the Aleutian Islands, so again, wait until this big guy is fully sampled before you throw in the proverbial towel.
It's pretty funny how a lot of people will crucify a meteorologist for hugging one model and/or run but then the moment a single run shows a southern solution people hug it and claim "the writing is on the wall."
Throwing in the towel beyond 120 hours is just as foolish as making snowfall predictions at this point.
I asked that same question yesterday and Dr. Novak reminded me in his video that the storms were around 50 miles misses. But I agree with Neil that the GFS has been more accurate which has been surprising. I met Paul Douglas last year and he was talking about how the Euro had taken over as the most accurate model. That played out last year but I can't help but wonder if El Niño has swung things back to the GFS. This is what I love about this blog is watching and learning.
National Weather Service siding with the European model. Their graphic has snow skiming the southeast corner of Minnesota with nothing from the Twin Cities on north. False hope again!
Other WFOs aren't as convinced. DVN, MKX, and I think OAX too seem to believe the northern solution and are believing in the GFS phasing that northern stream in whereas the Euro does not.
Interesting to see which WFOs pick which models/runs.
I just saw on TWC that they are calling for the storm to hit Iowa and Wisconsin pretty hard, and to just skim extreme southeast MN. Right now that seems to be the way the majority of forecasts that I have seen are leaning. However, there is plenty of time for that forecast to change. If I was a betting man I would definitely not bet on a big storm for the metro. Let's face it, the metro isn't exactly a big snowstorm magnet. I will hold out hope though! We'll just have to wait and see what ultimately happens.
Gotta Love the latest 12z GFS. It shows a direct hit on southern MN, including the MSP metro on TUE. Meanwhile, it has a nice & thick dendrite growth zone from 700mb down to 850mb right over the region on TUE. Again, I beautiful set-up if it indeed comes to fruition.
Nothing. Just another shitpost contributing absolutely nothing to the discussion.
The 12z Euro has shifted NW, not SE - although as mentioned below this run is real funky. The SE shifts were yesterday's runs, now it's wobbling back NW. GFS has been very consistent. As far as I can tell the only model that shifted SE with this morning's runs was the GEM and it's a very, very slight shift.
Really Bill, I'm done with this Neil guy. Somebody says the southeast shift is happening and matter of fact even more so today and he calls it a shitpost. How rude. Please go away Neil if you can't be respectful of others!
12z Euro is starting to come in, looks like an interesting run. Pronounced NW shift, track similar to the GFS's consistent SLP tracks, but the trough is now showing as positively tilted and it's closing off the low quickly and once again showing it driving towards the high in Canada, which I'm still skeptical of and appears even further south than on previous runs (yet the track is further NW?).
All in all, reeks of a funky run to me. Seems like the Euro has been all over the place while the GFS has been remarkably consistent for days. Not going to pay much credence to the Euro until it shows some run-to-run consistency. But hey, at least this run, although weird, has a favorable track for us here. :)
Sorry - may have jumped the gun calling it a "pronounced" NW shift. Sounds like it ejects further NW and gets to SW IA and then cuts E to Chicago and then goes NE? Hard to tell with these free Euro maps. :(
Neil, the Euro AKA King did take a NW jump no doubt. The track looks good through MO then gets a little chaotic, but it was a good step in the right direction if you're looking for snow. The path it takes will be ironed out later. But the overall runs today have been good no doubt.
I have to agree with Randy that there is potential for this system to lose some punch after it hammers NE, IA & heads northeast into MN/WI. Here is Randy's previous quote:
"This system may move to fast aloft in relation to the surface low, which would mean the surface would lose it's upper level support thus cutting down on the QPF"
Remember, these systems have to lose strength at some time since they do have a life cycle. It appears obvious that both the GFS & Euro believe this storm will reach a mature state right before it hits MN/WI.
Looks like NWS is more concerned with convection sapping the moisture return:
THERE WILL BE GOOD POTENTIAL OF STRONG CONVECTION OFF TO THE EAST ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS MAY LIMIT MOISTURE INFLOW INTO OUR REGION SOMEWHAT.
Bill you have deleted my comment (anonymous @ 1.01pm). Totally unacceptable. You are losing your head on this and really treating non-experts unfairly. SHAME ON YOU!
Not just one model anymore, love how when it starts trending away people say its a "bad" run just because its not showing a major storm hitting anymore you can read between the lines of snowlovers frustrations. GFS and EURO ensembles are now trending even further southeast. Like I said the writing was and is on the wall. End of last post I had said 1-3" for metro might have to consider even lower now.
I never said a "bad" run - I said a "funky" run. If you're going to quote me, quote what I actually said.
And I gave reasons as to why I thought it was a funky run. The low track didn't make sense to me, and I stated that. I didn't say "The 12z Euro doesn't smack us with a foot therefore it's a bad run." I just questioned the track, same as did regarding yesterday's 12z Euro.
If you think I'm wishcasting, then I think you're bittercasting.
@Neil a little bit touchy. Who said I was talking about you. I didn't use your name, if you follow all that's being said then you will know who did. Bill arrogance really, others can say Euro had a bad run, I happen to believe it is all.
Sorry - sure sounded like it was directed at me but if not then sorry.
Hanging your hat on a single model that's been pretty bad this winter compared to it's normal reliable self five days out is bold, I'll give ya that I guess...
NWS is going with a southern solution that takes the significant snow south of most of the MSP metro and the low through Chicago. I know there is a lot of time left, but this seems to be where the bulk of the tracks have been so far this winter.
P.S. Bill, is there a reason you don't just make this site login only? I don't have a log-in for this forum, but I would get one if required. It puts legitimacy into users' posts while letting us all stay anonymous.
I think I may have looked at it once but it seemed cumbersome. I'm not very sophisticated about these things and want to keep it simple. What do you mean by legitimacy into users' posts?
I think I may have looked at it once but it seemed cumbersome. I'm not very sophisticated about these things and want to keep it simple. What do you mean by legitimacy into users' posts?
AB beat me to it. NWS now has all clear of snow in metro in their latest graphics. So much for that active pattern that was promised. At least those living in Mankato and Albert Lea can enjoy some snow and of course Novak will be happy in Rochester!
Wow Bill just Wow! Is this how fairly new posters get treated? Here I was expecting an adult response from you and all you do is delete without any other recourse.
Your post had nothing to do with the weather. This is my blog and I do my best to keep it on point. I use my best judgement and gut. If you're not happy with my policy, I can't help you. This is the last time I will address non-weather stuff on this blog.
I'm seeing some rumblings that the GFS had eyes on this thing out near 384 hours? Or at least well into model fantasy land.
Anybody know how long it's had a decent handle on this? No matter how the exact track pans out, seems pretty impressive that a model was able to pick it up that far out, if true.
The first real glimpse of this system was seen on the 17th of January, with the night (00z) run of the model. It put the low pretty close to the track it has now, but obviously different looks in precip placement, strength, etc. I didn't look at every singe run since then to see if it kept it in every run.
Over two weeks out?! Whoever commented about technology last thread, how's that lol??? No matter what model wins in the end the GFS deserves a gold star.
for what @Neil, because it had a storm. Thats what models do. Put out weather porn like the top of this thread and the 24" joke for MSP you posted the other day that dont pan out. So what if its close its still wrong if it doesnt verify. They get a blue ribbon for participating.
Yes, I personally think it's impressive the GFS had a grip on this thing TWO WEEKS out. Even if the track is a few hundred miles off from when it first showed signals back on the 17th (!!!) I'd still say that's damn impressive. I'm not sure what to tell you if you expect a solution to verify completely that far out.
I think if I'm bored today I'll see if I can write a greasemonkey script to start blacklisting people's comments. So tired to users like this.
Here's another one Bill. The smogness of this guy, what does the last paragraph of his post have to do with weather. I've been out of town for a few days and I hear of a possible storm heading this way so I come to this site to read up on what's going on and everyone's take. I see many deleted comments and surprised to see that Neils aren't with what I'm reading from him.
You didn't answer my question. What does the last paragraph in his post have to do with weather? And you are tolerating someone on this board calling someone else's post a "shitpost" ? I don't know about you but if your going to be deleting posts I find his degrading regardless if he throws in weather knowledge.
@Jon - Fair enough, I probably do come across that way in reaction to anonymous posts. That's why I am just going to ignore them completely and not reply to them anymore.
I agree anony, the real fun thing with this storm is how it plays out considering how early it was picked up. I'm interested in how it plays out and watching how the models perform thru next Wednesday. Obviously Sunday should tell more when it hits land.
Interesting to see where Chicago's legendary forecaster Tom Skilling has the "possible blizzard" area marked: http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/unseasonable-weekend-warmth-across-nations-mid-section-to-allow-gulf-moisture-to-stream-north-creating-supportive-environment-for-next-weeks-intensifying-winter-sto
Wow... 0z GFS just UNLOADS on IA and WI, widespread 12" with some spots over 20". Showing MSP with a respectable 8" and a lovely gradient to contend with.
CMC and GGEM both took a very southern dip on their 0z runs, but neither display the first wave which seems fishy and the member spread on the GGEM is very large. (Ukie also in this camp)
If you buy the GFS, the leading wave is looking more and more like it'll shape how the main event unfolds. Looks like this forecast is only going to get tougher.
GFS Ensembles mean is siding with the Op and taking the low over LOT (Chicago) with a very small spread among members and a nice cluster of them tracking the low closer to MKE.
I'll keep siding with the GFS/GEFS for now over the Euro/G(E)EM/CMC due to the ensembles being consistent with the Op and also its depiction of the first wave. Whereas I am not as confident in other models due to the ensemble spread and/or inconsistency with its Op (CMC) or funky tracks that look fishy to me (Euro).
Nobody is commenting on the Sat/Sun potential event for the Twin Cities? I feel there's a good chance it may end up more significant than the Tue/Wed storm which will have its greatest impact south and east of the area. This is weather related I believe. Let's see if Bill deletes even this one.
Truly fascinating how the Sunday system is likely the main show for MSP, not the huge storm we've all been tracking. The 06z GFS continues to push the main storm on Tuesday more SE, thus mostly missing us. But this is because the Sunday wave has gotten much bigger than anticipated. GFS drops around 5" on MSP on Sunday.
THIS is another reason why weather cannot be accurately predicted a week in advance. So many moving pieces to figure out.
The GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, and JMA models all have the Tuesday system going southeast of us now. What a difference a few model runs make! Bill, with all the friendly competition in here, maybe it's time to start up the report card section of the site again?
Dave Dahl on morning radio report says Iowa will get buried....Twin Cities on the very northern fringe, a couple of inches at best! Damn it!!!! I was really wishing we would finally get a decent storm this winter.
I hope the storm misses us, then it gets cold so the storm track stays south for awhile, then it warms up so we get rain, then spring comes, then summer.
Well this is quite an interesting setup on Sunday-Monday... NWS Models at best showed 3 inches max and now with the 12Z out the max has been cranked all the way to almost 9 inches. Something we need to watch...
Something smells rotten with all the model solutions over the next 5 days. For instance: - Why isn't the Euro catching onto the SAT/SUN system & blowing it up like the American models? This is a definitely red flag. - The Jet structure on both the GFS/ECMWF for TUE storm would favor heavy snow band over western IA & southern MN, especially near the I-90 corridor. Why is the Euro bearish on this? Moisture gets cut-off? Storm evolves past mature stage?
These issues have me concerned. I simply don't want to commit to anything right now. Is that wrong?
then you shouldn't have done any videos with Bill. You should lead with good examples as an expert. if anything is up in the air no need to do a video 7 days before.
Settle down Anon...models showed more (than right now) consistency and alignment when the video was made, and Novak did a GREAT job spelling out the specific differences he saw at the time. Now that there's even more differences, forecasting becomes more difficult.
What I do not understand and I hope than Bill can clarify this once and for all instead of removing posts he does not like like they do in China is this: All the experts agree that exactly because weather forecasting is difficult and volatile you should not hype too much in advance, not commit too much in advance etc etc. Yet, by posting a video 7 days before seems to be in clear contrast with such an attitude. Then you expose yourself to the criticism that you hype something to gain attention and then backtrack at the last minute. Bill then sweeps any criticism by deleting the post, but in the end the issue remain. if we all agree that forecasting is difficult then you maybe wait 2 days before an event to post a video. Because to me if you are doing that and then say 'I am not ready to commit to anything right now" you lose credibility. We all have mocked Dave Dahl for some 'bold' statements well in advance but then it seems everybody goes down the same path. Where am I going wrong?
I'm pretty sure Dr Novak and Bill can do a video about an uneventful sunny week in the middle of June if they darn well feel like it. Did someone force you to watch? Come on. The video fully explained the potential storm using the data they had at that time. What's wrong with that? NOTHING.
MNwx nailed it. If there is model guidance 5 days away from a large winter event, you can bet your *** meteorologists are following it.
THIS SITE IS FOR PEOPLE WHO WANT TO KNOW WHAT THOSE METEOROLOGISTS ARE SEEING.
Novak didn't commit to anything in his video.
If you don't want to hear specifics of a looming storm until 2 days before it happens, watch the news, don't read this site, and for the love of god....don't criticize the meteorologists for providing EXACTLY what others on this site want...INFORMATION.
Anon @ 1:11, and anyone else for that matter, who thought Novak's and Bill's recent video was "hype" and "commitment", that's on you. There was nothing said or shown that would tell me and many others they are "hyping" this storm.
All they're doing is getting the word out and trying to technically explain what's going on. Novak does a very good job "writing it in crayon" for me so I can understand and I'm sure others too.
This is NOT a weather forecasting site. If you're looking for that you need to go to the National Weather Service and leave us alone.
The euro is not the best model for seeing these smaller sneakier systems. thats when i think nam and other models perform better...euro is starting to see it now this run.
"Anonymous" just stop with your fighting... Do you even relies how immature you sound with what you're saying? Models seemed quite clear at the time, and besides its their choice to make a video if they want.
@MNMOXIE: copying from the subtitle of this blog: "Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?" So it's not a weather forecasting blog? If I was Bill I would take offense.
I hope we can agree that this blog isn't about hype. It's a bunch of weather geeks talking and learning about weather forecasting. It's a hobby for some and a profession for others. Watching these models before a storm is even over the US is very interesting.
ANON @ 2:31. Bill's original vision for this blog was to Grade local forecasters on how well they did with a particular storm hence "Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?". Again, it has nothing do to with forecasting.
It almost seems as if the models right now are farther apart than they were 4-5 days ago. The op and ensemble runs of all models are a jumbled mess. All models considered, everyone from the Twin Cities to Detroit is still in the game. This is why tracking weather is fun.
Can anyone answer...1) is the storm onshore yet? 2)is the size of the storm and the dynamics associated with it throwing the models into a "tizzy"? Will this system become a "nowcast" due to the difficulty forecasting this?
MNMOXIE, here's a link to the west coast water vapor satellite imagery. Entering the far left of the picture now. Will hit the coast on Sunday. Sounds like the west coast offices are sending up a special balloon launch to try to gather atmospheric conditions sooner than normal.
Is access to the various models free or do you have to pay to see them? Would someone be able to post the links to the models?
I want to add that I love learning from everyone on this site and appreciate the discussions (following this site for over one year now). The anonymous posts lately have been obnoxious to need to sift through, but please keep up the great conversation - I can't get enough of good weather discussions :).
Liz great idea, but doing links through blogger is tedious at best, especially with mobile devices. I might suggest to Bill to move the site to Facebook to not only better moderate comments but to add links and pics for a enhanced learning.
Liz, 2 websites that contain many of the models are tropicaltidbits.com and Pivotalweather.com. The widely used models are included (GFS, NAM, CMC-Canadian). Access to the Euro (ECMWF) is not free, but Tropicaltidbits.com shows select data from that model. But it is very limited.
Weather.cod.edu is another great site one-stop site with great tools.
I think that would be a sign of defeat Bill. Not everyone would want to go through facebook to read or post. I think you should set some clear standards of usage, because I am sure you would have to admit that some of those people mostly anonym have a point when they feel that there has been some sort of arbitrary judgment in what you have allowed and what not. So I'd suggest to keep it here but set some clear standards: what's allowed, what's not tolerated and I am sure that the blog will polish itself with time. I have followed since the beginning ( although I mostly read rather than post) and I think that the Facebook platform would become more cumbersome.
NWS tracking away from snow in metro on Tuesday now. Went from likely wording now down to 40% snow. I guess I wasn't so far off just two days ago with not much snow affecting us, but I was ridiculed and deleted. Such is life as a female on this board.
I hear you. I was deleted because I suggested the cold-air south shift theorem: if it cold enough for snow the storm is usally suppressed to the south etc... which by the way was coined by Paul Douglas a few years ago. Which is btw exactly what is happening and will happen. But I guess Bill must have thought it was not weather related.
alaska gets most of its big snow producers from the west, and at that latitude the westerlies are not warm enough to create precp types, although Juneau has an unusual high number of mixed precipitation events every winter considering how north it is
A few people have already tried to explain this to you already but I'll try my hand....
The problem is in your tone. Your posts are not in the tone of "I THINK this is what will happen," you say it as "I KNOW this is what is going to happen." You say things in an arrogant, matter-of-fact fashion. It's not that hard to understand.
Another somewhat long time reader here- also second/third/whatever the motion of keeping the site here..... for now at least. Perhaps if it doesn't kinda self-regulate in time fb would be a good idea.
Excuse me excuse me excuse me. The nws latest discussion mentions at the low track favors an albert lea to Eau claire line. That to me seems in case too north , not too south. Something is missing here. I thought I heard several people mention a south shift?
Its not the storm track...they are referencing the snow track...snow will go from Albert Lea to Eau. Most snow going south of metro. At least that's how I read it.
18Z GEFS with a little wobble back northwest, with a handful of members showing a track through northwestern Illinois. Should be interesting to see the 0Z runs come in, sometimes ensemble shifts can be a signal of upcoming operational model shifts. We should start entering a better zone for models and the NAM now so hopefully the last day of model divergence turns back into convergence.
It is really going to be cool to see what happens, if anything, with the models once the energy comes on shore. We can all hope it somehow shifts itself north. Obviously that early wave shown might also mess with things.
Newest NWS graphic pretty much a no show for snow in metro for Tuesday. They have snow going only for far southeast corner. Oh well look forward to a new thread on something actually occuring in these parts.
For forecasting storms here, we rely on gathering data once the weather hits the west coast. What do forecasters on the west coast rely on for forecasting storms there?
Good question. I believe that the data into the models is sufficient for west coast systems. They are the first in line when storms come on, and systems have less upstream features that could interfere. I don't know if this is actually the case, but it is just a thought. It is certainly an interesting question though.
Gfs has come in looking pretty darn amazing..increased strength and its nw reach...gem still has a lott of catching up to do but this run it has started to. Big euro run coming tonight
Just sent this to an online friend of mine, expressing my frustration at this storm not being pulled north, than the GFS came in.
"Looking at the charts from H3 down to H85 on the euro effective Tues morning, everything looks good for a major storm effecting SE MN just south and east of metro. A bit of a negative tilt at H3 and 5, Divergence is also a check. Vorticity and vorticity advection also look good, a bit of ridging at H5 over MN. Moisture convergence strong to very strong just south of the MN border at H7 but extending into southern MN at H5. Every thing looks so good. But alas, looking at the stream lines and wind barbs at H7 and 85, winds are out of the NW to NE over MN, effectively killing the chances that the negative tilt aloft would pull the track just far enough north to dump on RST. I don't have convergence charts at Eurowx,but my guess is that we have convergence going on at H7 thru H85.
Edit: Holy smokes at the GFS, it bit on my thoughts that things could easily be pulled northward"
Thank you for being the sane model solution ECMWF. How the hell could the GFS/NAM miss so badly on their solutions for late SAT into SUN. Totally frustrating. I'm glad I didn't sell out to their 6"-10" solution just one run ago. Unbelievable!
Thanks Randy yes she is really playing well hows it been going...this thread is gonna light up cause new euro just snowballed back nw with very impressive features...gfs and euro both grew enormous this run
Not surprisingly, both the GFS & ECMWF are pulling the band of snow a touch further NW to align with the impressive jet structure over southern MN, incl. the MSP metro. I simply don't see how southern MN/WI incl. MSP escapes a significant snow TUE & WED. Model data has been amazingly consistent for the last 3 days.
I'm confused. You say that model data has been amazingly consistent but I thought the models have been steering things southeast and now back northwest? Glad we may have something to talk about.
Bill, I don't want to put words into Tom's mouth, but I believe he is referring to the upper air plots. Those have been relatively consistent, the problem has been how the models have reacted in the lower levels.
It was nice to see the models make a nice adjustment for those who want snow. However, I always remain a bit skeptical until that energy gets ingested into the data network. Rapid swings in model output can certainly happen once this happens. Upper features still look fantastic, as mentioned above, but we still await the system to come ashore. I've seen systems bomb out even more once it realizes how much energy is actually there, and I've seen them fizzle due to other things going on upstream.
With systems like this, that item is always on the table. However this storm may very well be dynamic enough to overcome that. Models generally don't do well with picking that stuff up until the day of the storm. I got a good chuckle reading La Crosse's forecast discussion. It pretty much sums up my thoughts at this point.
I thought this paragraph from MPX's forecast discussion this morning was interesting:
ITS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 30/00Z PARALLEL RUN OF THE GFS...WHICH UTILIZES A HYBRID ENKF/4DVAR DATA ASSIMILATION SCHEME AND WILL REPLACE THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS THIS YEAR...HAS A STORM TRACK MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF AXIS CLIPPING SOUTHEAST MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WESTERN WI ON SOUTHWARD. THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IS QUITE TIGHT TO THE NORTH WITH THE HUNDREDTH INCH LINE BARELY NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. WPC LIKED THIS SOLUTION AS IT MATCHED PRETTY WELL WITH THEIR EXPERIMENTAL DAY 4 WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF QPF. THE ONE COMMENT THEY HAD IS THAT THE PARALLEL RUN MAY BE A TAD PROGRESSIVE. THE 29/00Z GFSP HAD A VERY SIMILAR FORECAST AS WELL.
From this morning's forecast discussion from the NWS in LaCrosse. Remember, this is for LaCrosse, not the Twin Cities.
WINTER STORM WATCHES AND/OR BLIZZARD WATCHES ARE STILL LIKELY FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT...UNLESS THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS WINTER STORM.
I'm still perplexed with the GFS/NAM solutions from yesterday. How in the world could they miss & mislead us so badly? We need to understand this moving forward.
I wonder how many forecasters & media outlets jumped on those ominous solutions & hyped snow for later today into Sunday?
I totally agree Novak. Was there amd gone again just like that. The gem mad a huge shift n to come very close to gfs and euro now....finally some serious tightening of consensus
Well, things are looking a lot better on the models this morning if you're looking for snow in MSP. A noticeable shift NW on the 12z GFS, and a substantial shift NW on the 12z GGEM. The GGEM seems like it's finally catching onto the trends. It had been the southern solution from the start, but the 12z run may be the beginning of a serious push in this direction.
It should snow at MSP... How much isn't really worth discussing right now. Because its too far out but if you really want to know the latest snow totals that potentially could happen. I recommend you use pivotalweather.
The cip analogs highest score out of the 12z suite appears to be the 12/23 12/24 1996 which turned out to be again a pretty nasty storm just southeast of the core metro. I think the airport ws slightly over 6 inches on that storm. I feel we may somewhat closer to 4 inches...
4 inches sounds kinda low... I'm thinking southeast metro could potentially get 5-8 inches. We should know a lot more with the 0z run Monday morning when the storm hits the coast.
Tons of NW shifts today, almost every model, although two main camps remain (GFS vs. Everybody Else). 18z GFS paints a foot for MSP and 16" for Rochester. The writing is most definitely not on the wall. Excited for the 0z runs, do they shift even more? Hold? Go back SE?
Gotta love having a storm like this to track while it's in the 40s on a weekend in January. :D
Maybe time for a new video and thread since this has so many comments?
Wow, NWS has posted snow totals already. 4-6 Metro, closer to 8 for Rochester. Very tight cutoff just north of the Metro. I'm really surprised they are putting totals on this already. Bold.
NAM is crap beyond 48 hours. 12z run had a closed off low at H5, 0z its completely gone? Just shows a weak elongated mess. Not buying it. Let's see if the GFS or Euro follow suit in any way.
Some early numbers rolling in for Tuesday: WCCO....3-6" Weather.com....4-8" AccuWeather....2-4" NWS....3-6" Seems like we will get "some" snow, but the main show looks to sail south of the metro.
Well technically you can go with 1-6" from the NWS...depending on where you live in the metro...just another in an endless line of gradient storms...but yes NWS has 4-6" at the airport
Just curious...where are you seeing NWS 4-6" for MSP? I'm not doubting you, I am just not able to find it for myself. I just see 1-3" on the "detailed forecast".
I'm looking at graphical forecast on their home page and on Twitter.. under Twin Cities the 4-6" line cuts through the southern core where the airport is located...like I said earlier this again will be another tight gradient snowfall and I'm sure it will change again tomorrow.
Bad sign for all snowlovers?? A storm system is about 60 hours away and the last comment from the so called experts, Novak,Randyinchamplin,Duane was 24 hours ago. Bad omen, southeast shift back on!
I've been trying to stay quiet until the system comes ashore. I don't really want to type every single time it bumps east or west or north or south. Fluctuations, as expected, are still occurring. Don't be surprised if some areas of MN and WI are issued watches overnight, especially by the forecast office in La Crosse.
And they did. Blizzard for Iowa and far southern MN, Winter Storm for SE corner of MN and a bigger chunk of WI. Metro downgraded to a couple of inches. GFS seems to be the only real optimistic model left for the Metro to do better. So far the early predictions of the strength of the storm are still accurate, just appears to be around 100 miles further south.
Enjoy the storm Rochester south and east. Send pictures. Maybe we'll get a token inch in the metro. The metro will once again be the little kid with its sad face pressed against the window wishing he was on the inside having fun too. Some day perhaps.
Hey Bill...any way we can get a new thread. Looks like a near miss, but swifting thru almost 200 comments is pretty much. Thanks for the consideration.
first signs by some of the shorter term models are suggesting a shift north and west led my the NCAR ensemble forecast system with many members putting heavy snow down in Central NE. The over night run of the GFS made similar move as the did the RPM model.
NWS called for freezing rain starting around 8pm in the Twin Cities last night. Oops. Not only was it too warm to freeze, it didn't even rain. I only know about this forecast because I saw a map they put on facebook. It showed the progression of the freezing rain. Nothing happened, at least not in the TC.
I believe the bigger story here in the metro is the warmth not this miss of a storm. A week long thaw that was capped off with a 43°(nearly twenty degrees above average) day on Saturday which has resulted in melted snow and several grass sightings throughout the metro. Winter coming to a close perhaps, early spring?with snow being pretty much nonexistent(well below average) and after a cold spell next week can spring be far behind. Bring Spring!
Great video guys! Really looking forward to seeing how this pans out. A few other things to keep in mind as we move forward.
ReplyDeleteThe temperature profile, at this point, looks great for snow growth. The colder temperatures aloft will be great for dendrite (snowflake) growth. So, even a quarter inch of liquid could put down 3-6 inches of snow.
The wind still looks to be a factor, pretty much regardless of the track. While this may not be as big of a deal for the protected areas, the open areas of southern Minnesota would be dealing with bad driving conditions with a minimal amount of snow. It looks to be light and fluffy, so easy for the wind to move it. I feel like every year we try to drive that point home. It doesn't take much snow to cause headaches.
I'm not sure how many folks look at pretty much everything out there, but I certainly try to look at everything. There are ensemble runs of the Euro and GFS that show even more solutions. Looking at how they are clustered and comparing them to the operational version of their model is definitely helpful. If people don't look at them, I would encourage it.
The 00z GFS data is just about to start rolling in, and will take a solid 30-45 minutes to get to that time frame. It is good to watch for general trends now, but the real key time to hone in on what the models are showing will be on Monday.
Great video, thanks for asking my question. I always enjoy Dr. Novak and his passion. His answer on the misses this year was good. It has been around 50 mile misses. I'm riding with the GFS on this storm and am looking forward to runs in a couple of days. I think it's a little easier to predict east coast storms since there is a little more data available if the storm crosses the US. Should be a fun weekend on the blog here.
ReplyDeleteIt should also be noted that there were 4 balloon launches a day as that system was coming across, as opposed to the 2 a day that are normally done. More information = better forecast model output.
DeleteBill and Tom. There is a new weather model site out there that is free. It actually shows the GFS thought based on the Kuchera method which is more accurate. If you chose the regional view it gives you what the GFS model thinks for selected areas in a numerical value. User be ware the GEM model on this site is still uses a 10:1 ratio, which is what I think the map represents in the title of this thread.
ReplyDeletehttp://pivotalweather.com/
I really want to take a stab as to why the Euro crashes this system into what appears to be a strong surface high. The answer lies in the 300mb charts down through 700mb, in other words the steering winds. The ridge aloft is not nearly as strong as what the surface shows. As the storm matures and takes on a negative tilt, it will pull the surface low into that surface ridge to our north. I really think that at least some of the metro will get heavy snow with strong winds. My worry based on the Euro solutions is that this system may move to fast aloft in relation to the surface low, which would mean the surface would lose it's upper level support thus cutting down on the QPF.
ReplyDeleteOf course the other problem with weaker ridgeing aloft is that the trough may not take on a negative tilt. This seems to be what the 01/28 0z run showed.
ReplyDeleteDave Dahl morning radio, storm hitting Iowa and extreme southeast Minnesota the heaviest. MSP on northern fringe of snow.
ReplyDeleteGreat video, and thanks for asking my question Bill. Much appreciated. 06z GFS held serve and seems to really tie in the northern stream, giving the MSP metro a nice swath of snow. The 0z Euro in the other hand made its biggest move yet to the SE which would shift the heavy snow away from the metro. As mentioned numerous times, the models are going to bounce around until the energy crashes into CA. We should get a little better idea on model consensus over the Pacific as the energy gets picked up by the network.
ReplyDeleteWriting is already on the wall for this one, everybody wants to take a wait and see approach and that's fine but many of you who are the experts here can see the trends. Dave Dahl saw it and mentioned as well as the NWS, Euro taking this south and east and sparing the metro of heavy snow. Sorry metro snow lovers foiled again, but you have been disappointed many times already this year so I guess your used to it. There's always March, March typically has a large snowstorm or two. But were about to end a atypical January with below average snowfall and above average temperatures so I guess I doesn't really know what March will bring. And lost in all of this "storm" chatter, hey what do you think about that six day thaw were in, pretty nice huh.
ReplyDeleteOne 'bad' model run isn't a trend. And I'm sure you're aware that the Euro is 0-for-3 this winter on big storms. So yes, let's wait and see. The 06z GFS moved the snow NW. I guess that's a trend too. But you failed to mention that.
DeleteBecause we all know the Euro is King and the GFS is good for speculation! And the Euro in fact did have the east coast snowstorm first and was consistent throughout, it failed in its qpf for southern NY but nailed Philadelphia on south.
DeleteI'm sorry but that isn't true. The Euro caved to the GFS and NAM regarding the latest east coast storm. The Euro was obviously in on it early (the general consensus a week out was amazing) but the GFS and NAM (lol) won that battle.
DeleteAnd as MNwx mentioned the Euro is 0 for 3 on Midwest storms this year and in general has not performed very well at all this winter. Many people on AmWx have said this.
Anyway, I fail to see how the writing is on the wall for this one considering the system is still hanging out near the Aleutian Islands, so again, wait until this big guy is fully sampled before you throw in the proverbial towel.
It's pretty funny how a lot of people will crucify a meteorologist for hugging one model and/or run but then the moment a single run shows a southern solution people hug it and claim "the writing is on the wall."
Throwing in the towel beyond 120 hours is just as foolish as making snowfall predictions at this point.
I asked that same question yesterday and Dr. Novak reminded me in his video that the storms were around 50 miles misses. But I agree with Neil that the GFS has been more accurate which has been surprising. I met Paul Douglas last year and he was talking about how the Euro had taken over as the most accurate model. That played out last year but I can't help but wonder if El Niño has swung things back to the GFS. This is what I love about this blog is watching and learning.
DeleteAs usual the video jinxes it.
ReplyDeleteAs soon they post the video, the storm goes south.
National Weather Service siding with the European model. Their graphic has snow skiming the southeast corner of Minnesota with nothing from the Twin Cities on north. False hope again!
ReplyDeleteOther WFOs aren't as convinced. DVN, MKX, and I think OAX too seem to believe the northern solution and are believing in the GFS phasing that northern stream in whereas the Euro does not.
DeleteInteresting to see which WFOs pick which models/runs.
I just saw on TWC that they are calling for the storm to hit Iowa and Wisconsin pretty hard, and to just skim extreme southeast MN. Right now that seems to be the way the majority of forecasts that I have seen are leaning. However, there is plenty of time for that forecast to change. If I was a betting man I would definitely not bet on a big storm for the metro. Let's face it, the metro isn't exactly a big snowstorm magnet. I will hold out hope though! We'll just have to wait and see what ultimately happens.
ReplyDeleteDon't worry the next model will bring 12-18 right over TC. And by Friday PM the low will be in Arkansas and flakes will be sparse.
DeleteGotta Love the latest 12z GFS. It shows a direct hit on southern MN, including the MSP metro on TUE. Meanwhile, it has a nice & thick dendrite growth zone from 700mb down to 850mb right over the region on TUE. Again, I beautiful set-up if it indeed comes to fruition.
ReplyDeleteIt's happening.
ReplyDeleteWhat's Happening?
DeleteNothing. Just another shitpost contributing absolutely nothing to the discussion.
DeleteThe 12z Euro has shifted NW, not SE - although as mentioned below this run is real funky. The SE shifts were yesterday's runs, now it's wobbling back NW. GFS has been very consistent. As far as I can tell the only model that shifted SE with this morning's runs was the GEM and it's a very, very slight shift.
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DeleteReally Bill, I'm done with this Neil guy. Somebody says the southeast shift is happening and matter of fact even more so today and he calls it a shitpost. How rude. Please go away Neil if you can't be respectful of others!
Delete12z Euro is starting to come in, looks like an interesting run. Pronounced NW shift, track similar to the GFS's consistent SLP tracks, but the trough is now showing as positively tilted and it's closing off the low quickly and once again showing it driving towards the high in Canada, which I'm still skeptical of and appears even further south than on previous runs (yet the track is further NW?).
ReplyDeleteAll in all, reeks of a funky run to me. Seems like the Euro has been all over the place while the GFS has been remarkably consistent for days. Not going to pay much credence to the Euro until it shows some run-to-run consistency. But hey, at least this run, although weird, has a favorable track for us here. :)
Sorry - may have jumped the gun calling it a "pronounced" NW shift. Sounds like it ejects further NW and gets to SW IA and then cuts E to Chicago and then goes NE? Hard to tell with these free Euro maps. :(
DeleteNeil, the Euro AKA King did take a NW jump no doubt. The track looks good through MO then gets a little chaotic, but it was a good step in the right direction if you're looking for snow. The path it takes will be ironed out later. But the overall runs today have been good no doubt.
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ReplyDeleteI have to agree with Randy that there is potential for this system to lose some punch after it hammers NE, IA & heads northeast into MN/WI. Here is Randy's previous quote:
ReplyDelete"This system may move to fast aloft in relation to the surface low, which would mean the surface would lose it's upper level support thus cutting down on the QPF"
Remember, these systems have to lose strength at some time since they do have a life cycle. It appears obvious that both the GFS & Euro believe this storm will reach a mature state right before it hits MN/WI.
Looks like NWS is more concerned with convection sapping the moisture return:
DeleteTHERE WILL BE GOOD
POTENTIAL OF STRONG CONVECTION OFF TO THE EAST ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. THIS MAY LIMIT MOISTURE INFLOW INTO OUR REGION
SOMEWHAT.
Bill you have deleted my comment (anonymous @ 1.01pm).
ReplyDeleteTotally unacceptable.
You are losing your head on this and really treating non-experts unfairly.
SHAME ON YOU!
I can't recall exactly what it said now....
DeleteNot just one model anymore, love how when it starts trending away people say its a "bad" run just because its not showing a major storm hitting anymore you can read between the lines of snowlovers frustrations. GFS and EURO ensembles are now trending even further southeast. Like I said the writing was and is on the wall. End of last post I had said 1-3" for metro might have to consider even lower now.
ReplyDeleteI never said a "bad" run - I said a "funky" run. If you're going to quote me, quote what I actually said.
DeleteAnd I gave reasons as to why I thought it was a funky run. The low track didn't make sense to me, and I stated that. I didn't say "The 12z Euro doesn't smack us with a foot therefore it's a bad run." I just questioned the track, same as did regarding yesterday's 12z Euro.
If you think I'm wishcasting, then I think you're bittercasting.
I do think Truth has an arrogance about him/her that rubs us the wrong way. Truth, try to think about how you come across.
Delete@Neil a little bit touchy. Who said I was talking about you. I didn't use your name, if you follow all that's being said then you will know who did. Bill arrogance really, others can say Euro had a bad run, I happen to believe it is all.
DeleteSorry - sure sounded like it was directed at me but if not then sorry.
DeleteHanging your hat on a single model that's been pretty bad this winter compared to it's normal reliable self five days out is bold, I'll give ya that I guess...
http://e.lvme.me/fzrtozl.jpg
Bold and continues to be right. So sorry your big, huge blizzard isn't hitting your backyard.
DeleteNWS is going with a southern solution that takes the significant snow south of most of the MSP metro and the low through Chicago. I know there is a lot of time left, but this seems to be where the bulk of the tracks have been so far this winter.
ReplyDeleteP.S. Bill, is there a reason you don't just make this site login only? I don't have a log-in for this forum, but I would get one if required. It puts legitimacy into users' posts while letting us all stay anonymous.
I think I may have looked at it once but it seemed cumbersome. I'm not very sophisticated about these things and want to keep it simple. What do you mean by legitimacy into users' posts?
DeleteI think I may have looked at it once but it seemed cumbersome. I'm not very sophisticated about these things and want to keep it simple. What do you mean by legitimacy into users' posts?
DeleteAB beat me to it. NWS now has all clear of snow in metro in their latest graphics. So much for that active pattern that was promised. At least those living in Mankato and Albert Lea can enjoy some snow and of course Novak will be happy in Rochester!
DeleteBill, I mean _______ is always the same person; therefore, you know exactly who's being a pain...and you can ban users who break the rules.
DeleteOne thing I've really noticed around here, and it's pretty comical, are the differences between how model output is viewed by the anons.
ReplyDeleteAt 5 days out:
We're in the bullseye? Kiss of death, it'll shift away.
But then...
We're not in the bullseye? The writing is on the wall.
lol...
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ReplyDeleteWow Bill just Wow! Is this how fairly new posters get treated? Here I was expecting an adult response from you and all you do is delete without any other recourse.
DeleteYour post had nothing to do with the weather. This is my blog and I do my best to keep it on point. I use my best judgement and gut. If you're not happy with my policy, I can't help you. This is the last time I will address non-weather stuff on this blog.
DeleteI'm seeing some rumblings that the GFS had eyes on this thing out near 384 hours? Or at least well into model fantasy land.
ReplyDeleteAnybody know how long it's had a decent handle on this? No matter how the exact track pans out, seems pretty impressive that a model was able to pick it up that far out, if true.
The first real glimpse of this system was seen on the 17th of January, with the night (00z) run of the model. It put the low pretty close to the track it has now, but obviously different looks in precip placement, strength, etc. I didn't look at every singe run since then to see if it kept it in every run.
DeleteOver two weeks out?! Whoever commented about technology last thread, how's that lol??? No matter what model wins in the end the GFS deserves a gold star.
Deletefor what @Neil, because it had a storm. Thats what models do. Put out weather porn like the top of this thread and the 24" joke for MSP you posted the other day that dont pan out. So what if its close its still wrong if it doesnt verify. They get a blue ribbon for participating.
DeleteHaha wow, you sound so salty for no reason.
DeleteYes, I personally think it's impressive the GFS had a grip on this thing TWO WEEKS out. Even if the track is a few hundred miles off from when it first showed signals back on the 17th (!!!) I'd still say that's damn impressive. I'm not sure what to tell you if you expect a solution to verify completely that far out.
I think if I'm bored today I'll see if I can write a greasemonkey script to start blacklisting people's comments. So tired to users like this.
Here's another one Bill. The smogness of this guy, what does the last paragraph of his post have to do with weather. I've been out of town for a few days and I hear of a possible storm heading this way so I come to this site to read up on what's going on and everyone's take. I see many deleted comments and surprised to see that Neils aren't with what I'm reading from him.
DeleteNeil provides plenty of solid insights.
DeleteYou didn't answer my question. What does the last paragraph in his post have to do with weather? And you are tolerating someone on this board calling someone else's post a "shitpost" ? I don't know about you but if your going to be deleting posts I find his degrading regardless if he throws in weather knowledge.
Delete@Jon - Fair enough, I probably do come across that way in reaction to anonymous posts. That's why I am just going to ignore them completely and not reply to them anymore.
DeleteLOL! I'm sorry but...
Delete"Southeast shift
January 28, 2016 at 12:26 PM
It's happening."
...is the very definition of a shitpost. Haha, I can't win, I think I'm done posting.
I agree anony, the real fun thing with this storm is how it plays out considering how early it was picked up. I'm interested in how it plays out and watching how the models perform thru next Wednesday. Obviously Sunday should tell more when it hits land.
ReplyDeleteThis is the first real storm I have followed from far out, so I am looking to see the whole evolution as well!
ReplyDeleteInteresting to see where Chicago's legendary forecaster Tom Skilling has the "possible blizzard" area marked: http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/unseasonable-weekend-warmth-across-nations-mid-section-to-allow-gulf-moisture-to-stream-north-creating-supportive-environment-for-next-weeks-intensifying-winter-sto
ReplyDeleteWow... 0z GFS just UNLOADS on IA and WI, widespread 12" with some spots over 20". Showing MSP with a respectable 8" and a lovely gradient to contend with.
ReplyDeleteCMC and GGEM both took a very southern dip on their 0z runs, but neither display the first wave which seems fishy and the member spread on the GGEM is very large. (Ukie also in this camp)
If you buy the GFS, the leading wave is looking more and more like it'll shape how the main event unfolds. Looks like this forecast is only going to get tougher.
Now we wait the Euro... :D
GFS Ensembles mean is siding with the Op and taking the low over LOT (Chicago) with a very small spread among members and a nice cluster of them tracking the low closer to MKE.
DeleteI'll keep siding with the GFS/GEFS for now over the Euro/G(E)EM/CMC due to the ensembles being consistent with the Op and also its depiction of the first wave. Whereas I am not as confident in other models due to the ensemble spread and/or inconsistency with its Op (CMC) or funky tracks that look fishy to me (Euro).
Nobody is commenting on the Sat/Sun potential event for the Twin Cities?
ReplyDeleteI feel there's a good chance it may end up more significant than the Tue/Wed storm which will have its greatest impact south and east of the area.
This is weather related I believe.
Let's see if Bill deletes even this one.
Truly fascinating how the Sunday system is likely the main show for MSP, not the huge storm we've all been tracking. The 06z GFS continues to push the main storm on Tuesday more SE, thus mostly missing us. But this is because the Sunday wave has gotten much bigger than anticipated. GFS drops around 5" on MSP on Sunday.
ReplyDeleteTHIS is another reason why weather cannot be accurately predicted a week in advance. So many moving pieces to figure out.
The GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, and JMA models all have the Tuesday system going southeast of us now. What a difference a few model runs make! Bill, with all the friendly competition in here, maybe it's time to start up the report card section of the site again?
ReplyDeleteToo much work!
DeleteSorry snowlovers weather channel has gone for 2" for Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteDave Dahl on morning radio report says Iowa will get buried....Twin Cities on the very northern fringe, a couple of inches at best!
ReplyDeleteDamn it!!!! I was really wishing we would finally get a decent storm this winter.
If Dave Dahl said that, I would fully anticipate the track moving northwest again just to spite him.
ReplyDeletesneaky little system for late saturday/sunday. no model consistency, we shall see.
ReplyDeleteNAM 12z still holds onto possible 3-6 inches in metro on Late Sat-Sun.
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ReplyDeleteI hope the storm misses us, then it gets cold so the storm track stays south for awhile, then it warms up so we get rain, then spring comes, then summer.
ReplyDeleteWell this is quite an interesting setup on Sunday-Monday... NWS Models at best showed 3 inches max and now with the 12Z out the max has been cranked all the way to almost 9 inches. Something we need to watch...
ReplyDeleteNorthwest shift of the GFS
ReplyDeleteSomething smells rotten with all the model solutions over the next 5 days. For instance:
ReplyDelete- Why isn't the Euro catching onto the SAT/SUN system & blowing it up like the American models? This is a definitely red flag.
- The Jet structure on both the GFS/ECMWF for TUE storm would favor heavy snow band over western IA & southern MN, especially near the I-90 corridor. Why is the Euro bearish on this? Moisture gets cut-off? Storm evolves past mature stage?
These issues have me concerned. I simply don't want to commit to anything right now. Is that wrong?
then you shouldn't have done any videos with Bill.
DeleteYou should lead with good examples as an expert.
if anything is up in the air no need to do a video 7 days before.
Settle down Anon...models showed more (than right now) consistency and alignment when the video was made, and Novak did a GREAT job spelling out the specific differences he saw at the time. Now that there's even more differences, forecasting becomes more difficult.
DeleteWhat I do not understand and I hope than Bill can clarify this once and for all instead of removing posts he does not like like they do in China is this:
DeleteAll the experts agree that exactly because weather forecasting is difficult and volatile you should not hype too much in advance, not commit too much in advance etc etc.
Yet, by posting a video 7 days before seems to be in clear contrast with such an attitude. Then you expose yourself to the criticism that you hype something to gain attention and then backtrack at the last minute.
Bill then sweeps any criticism by deleting the post, but in the end the issue remain.
if we all agree that forecasting is difficult then you maybe wait 2 days before an event to post a video. Because to me if you are doing that and then say 'I am not ready to commit to anything right now" you lose credibility. We all have mocked Dave Dahl for some 'bold' statements well in advance but then it seems everybody goes down the same path.
Where am I going wrong?
I'm pretty sure Dr Novak and Bill can do a video about an uneventful sunny week in the middle of June if they darn well feel like it. Did someone force you to watch? Come on. The video fully explained the potential storm using the data they had at that time. What's wrong with that? NOTHING.
DeleteMNwx nailed it. If there is model guidance 5 days away from a large winter event, you can bet your *** meteorologists are following it.
DeleteTHIS SITE IS FOR PEOPLE WHO WANT TO KNOW WHAT THOSE METEOROLOGISTS ARE SEEING.
Novak didn't commit to anything in his video.
If you don't want to hear specifics of a looming storm until 2 days before it happens, watch the news, don't read this site, and for the love of god....don't criticize the meteorologists for providing EXACTLY what others on this site want...INFORMATION.
Anon @ 1:11, and anyone else for that matter, who thought Novak's and Bill's recent video was "hype" and "commitment", that's on you. There was nothing said or shown that would tell me and many others they are "hyping" this storm.
DeleteAll they're doing is getting the word out and trying to technically explain what's going on. Novak does a very good job "writing it in crayon" for me so I can understand and I'm sure others too.
This is NOT a weather forecasting site. If you're looking for that you need to go to the National Weather Service and leave us alone.
The euro is not the best model for seeing these smaller sneakier systems. thats when i think nam and other models perform better...euro is starting to see it now this run.
Delete"Anonymous" just stop with your fighting... Do you even relies how immature you sound with what you're saying? Models seemed quite clear at the time, and besides its their choice to make a video if they want.
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Delete@MNMOXIE:
Deletecopying from the subtitle of this blog:
"Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?"
So it's not a weather forecasting blog?
If I was Bill I would take offense.
I hope we can agree that this blog isn't about hype. It's a bunch of weather geeks talking and learning about weather forecasting. It's a hobby for some and a profession for others. Watching these models before a storm is even over the US is very interesting.
DeleteYes, the subtitle might be a little outdated. But most people still know what they get here.
DeleteYa, I know...don't feed the animals but...
DeleteANON @ 2:31. Bill's original vision for this blog was to Grade local forecasters on how well they did with a particular storm hence "Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?". Again, it has nothing do to with forecasting.
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DeleteIt almost seems as if the models right now are farther apart than they were 4-5 days ago. The op and ensemble runs of all models are a jumbled mess. All models considered, everyone from the Twin Cities to Detroit is still in the game. This is why tracking weather is fun.
ReplyDeleteCan anyone answer...1) is the storm onshore yet? 2)is the size of the storm and the dynamics associated with it throwing the models into a "tizzy"? Will this system become a "nowcast" due to the difficulty forecasting this?
ReplyDeleteMNMOXIE, here's a link to the west coast water vapor satellite imagery. Entering the far left of the picture now. Will hit the coast on Sunday. Sounds like the west coast offices are sending up a special balloon launch to try to gather atmospheric conditions sooner than normal.
Deletehttp://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
With the latest GFS run, it appears there's been a NW shift. This is going to be an agonizing system to follow.
ReplyDeleteBring it!
ReplyDeleteIs access to the various models free or do you have to pay to see them? Would someone be able to post the links to the models?
ReplyDeleteI want to add that I love learning from everyone on this site and appreciate the discussions (following this site for over one year now). The anonymous posts lately have been obnoxious to need to sift through, but please keep up the great conversation - I can't get enough of good weather discussions :).
Liz great idea, but doing links through blogger is tedious at best, especially with mobile devices. I might suggest to Bill to move the site to Facebook to not only better moderate comments but to add links and pics for a enhanced learning.
DeleteLiz, 2 websites that contain many of the models are tropicaltidbits.com and Pivotalweather.com. The widely used models are included (GFS, NAM, CMC-Canadian). Access to the Euro (ECMWF) is not free, but Tropicaltidbits.com shows select data from that model. But it is very limited.
DeleteWeather.cod.edu is another great site one-stop site with great tools.
@Non, I've been thinking about moving the site to Facebook for various reasons. I wonder how many people on here don't use Facebook...
DeleteOne disadvantage is that there wouldn't be separate, distinct threads for each storm. But maybe that's not so important anyway....
DeleteBut there could be several running threads as events occur.
DeleteGood point.
DeleteSeriously thinking about moving this site to Facebook. Thoughts? I assume everyone uses Facebook?
ReplyDeleteI don't and don't believe Randyinchamplin does either from what I can remember. But its ur blog and site do as you please.
DeleteDamn, you guys are dinosaurs! :-) Maybe this would be reason to jump in?
DeletePlease don't move this to fb. I don't think it will have the personality that your blog has. Kate in Little Canada.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteThanks, Kate. Appreciate the input!
DeleteI think that would be a sign of defeat Bill.
ReplyDeleteNot everyone would want to go through facebook to read or post.
I think you should set some clear standards of usage, because I am sure you would have to admit that some of those people mostly anonym have a point when they feel that there has been some sort of arbitrary judgment in what you have allowed and what not.
So I'd suggest to keep it here but set some clear standards: what's allowed, what's not tolerated and I am sure that the blog will polish itself with time.
I have followed since the beginning ( although I mostly read rather than post) and I think that the Facebook platform would become more cumbersome.
Thanks, Gregg. Appreciate your input and knowing that you're a longtime reader.
DeleteNWS tracking away from snow in metro on Tuesday now. Went from likely wording now down to 40% snow. I guess I wasn't so far off just two days ago with not much snow affecting us, but I was ridiculed and deleted. Such is life as a female on this board.
ReplyDeleteFirst two sentences: good. Second two sentences: out of line. Can you see that?
DeleteAnd I confidently say that none of us cares about whether anyone on here is male or female.
I hear you. I was deleted because I suggested the cold-air south shift theorem: if it cold enough for snow the storm is usally suppressed to the south etc... which by the way was coined by Paul Douglas a few years ago. Which is btw exactly what is happening and will happen.
DeleteBut I guess Bill must have thought it was not weather related.
Please don't move to facebook.
DeleteIf that was the case no one would get snow. How does Alaska get snow if cold air sends storms south?
Deletealaska gets most of its big snow producers from the west, and at that latitude the westerlies are not warm enough to create precp types, although Juneau has an unusual high number of mixed precipitation events every winter considering how north it is
DeleteA few people have already tried to explain this to you already but I'll try my hand....
DeleteThe problem is in your tone. Your posts are not in the tone of "I THINK this is what will happen," you say it as "I KNOW this is what is going to happen." You say things in an arrogant, matter-of-fact fashion. It's not that hard to understand.
You nailed it AnonyMOOSE! I'm afraid for this person it IS hard to understand.
DeleteAnother somewhat long time reader here- also second/third/whatever the motion of keeping the site here..... for now at least. Perhaps if it doesn't kinda self-regulate in time fb would be a good idea.
DeleteThanks for the feedback.
DeleteWeather.com also on board with storm pretty much missing MSP. Have "less then an inch" of acculamation now.
ReplyDeleteNot saying weather.com is wrong this time but they are not very accurate ever.
DeleteExcuse me excuse me excuse me.
ReplyDeleteThe nws latest discussion mentions at the low track favors an albert lea to Eau claire line.
That to me seems in case too north , not too south. Something is missing here. I thought I heard several people mention a south shift?
Its not the storm track...they are referencing the snow track...snow will go from Albert Lea to Eau. Most snow going south of metro. At least that's how I read it.
DeleteTHE LOW TRACK STILL LOOKS TO FAVOR AN ALBERT LEA TO
DeleteEAU CLAIRE WI LINE.
I'm guessing they meant snow track/swatch and said low, but whoops. Quite confusing for sure.
18Z GEFS with a little wobble back northwest, with a handful of members showing a track through northwestern Illinois. Should be interesting to see the 0Z runs come in, sometimes ensemble shifts can be a signal of upcoming operational model shifts. We should start entering a better zone for models and the NAM now so hopefully the last day of model divergence turns back into convergence.
ReplyDeleteIt is really going to be cool to see what happens, if anything, with the models once the energy comes on shore. We can all hope it somehow shifts itself north. Obviously that early wave shown might also mess with things.
ReplyDeleteNewest NWS graphic pretty much a no show for snow in metro for Tuesday. They have snow going only for far southeast corner. Oh well look forward to a new thread on something actually occuring in these parts.
ReplyDeleteFor forecasting storms here, we rely on gathering data once the weather hits the west coast. What do forecasters on the west coast rely on for forecasting storms there?
ReplyDeleteGood question. I believe that the data into the models is sufficient for west coast systems. They are the first in line when storms come on, and systems have less upstream features that could interfere. I don't know if this is actually the case, but it is just a thought. It is certainly an interesting question though.
DeleteGood assessment of what can be expected as a forecast gradually comes into focus: https://twitter.com/Elisa_Raffa/status/693271512439062531/photo/1
ReplyDeletePretty good find there sir!....so what your saying is we still have a shot of heavy snows in the metro....
DeleteGfs has come in looking pretty darn amazing..increased strength and its nw reach...gem still has a lott of catching up to do but this run it has started to. Big euro run coming tonight
ReplyDeleteWow! The last model showed 1 inch of snow for the metro... Now 10.
DeleteWelcome to the board aldude!!!! Glad to see CW doing well.
DeleteJust sent this to an online friend of mine, expressing my frustration at this storm not being pulled north, than the GFS came in.
ReplyDelete"Looking at the charts from H3 down to H85 on the euro effective Tues morning, everything looks good for a major storm effecting SE MN just south and east of metro. A bit of a negative tilt at H3 and 5, Divergence is also a check. Vorticity and vorticity advection also look good, a bit of ridging at H5 over MN. Moisture convergence strong to very strong just south of the MN border at H7 but extending into southern MN at H5. Every thing looks so good. But alas, looking at the stream lines and wind barbs at H7 and 85, winds are out of the NW to NE over MN, effectively killing the chances that the negative tilt aloft would pull the track just far enough north to dump on RST. I don't have convergence charts at Eurowx,but my guess is that we have convergence going on at H7 thru H85.
Edit: Holy smokes at the GFS, it bit on my thoughts that things could easily be pulled northward"
Thank you for being the sane model solution ECMWF. How the hell could the GFS/NAM miss so badly on their solutions for late SAT into SUN. Totally frustrating. I'm glad I didn't sell out to their 6"-10" solution just one run ago. Unbelievable!
ReplyDeleteThanks Randy yes she is really playing well hows it been going...this thread is gonna light up cause new euro just snowballed back nw with very impressive features...gfs and euro both grew enormous this run
ReplyDeleteDoing good, yeah Euro drops 10-12 on KAEL
DeleteGame on.
ReplyDeleteNot surprisingly, both the GFS & ECMWF are pulling the band of snow a touch further NW to align with the impressive jet structure over southern MN, incl. the MSP metro. I simply don't see how southern MN/WI incl. MSP escapes a significant snow TUE & WED. Model data has been amazingly consistent for the last 3 days.
This one should be fun to watch.
I'm confused. You say that model data has been amazingly consistent but I thought the models have been steering things southeast and now back northwest? Glad we may have something to talk about.
DeleteBill, I don't want to put words into Tom's mouth, but I believe he is referring to the upper air plots. Those have been relatively consistent, the problem has been how the models have reacted in the lower levels.
DeleteThanks, Randy. That sounds right.
DeleteIt was nice to see the models make a nice adjustment for those who want snow. However, I always remain a bit skeptical until that energy gets ingested into the data network. Rapid swings in model output can certainly happen once this happens. Upper features still look fantastic, as mentioned above, but we still await the system to come ashore. I've seen systems bomb out even more once it realizes how much energy is actually there, and I've seen them fizzle due to other things going on upstream.
ReplyDeleteDuane/Randy or Novak what about the thunderstorms to the south that was suppose to sap the moisture for our snow.
DeleteWith systems like this, that item is always on the table. However this storm may very well be dynamic enough to overcome that. Models generally don't do well with picking that stuff up until the day of the storm. I got a good chuckle reading La Crosse's forecast discussion. It pretty much sums up my thoughts at this point.
DeleteI thought this paragraph from MPX's forecast discussion this morning was interesting:
ReplyDeleteITS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 30/00Z PARALLEL RUN OF THE
GFS...WHICH UTILIZES A HYBRID ENKF/4DVAR DATA ASSIMILATION SCHEME
AND WILL REPLACE THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS THIS YEAR...HAS A
STORM TRACK MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF AXIS
CLIPPING SOUTHEAST MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WESTERN WI ON
SOUTHWARD. THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IS QUITE TIGHT TO THE NORTH
WITH THE HUNDREDTH INCH LINE BARELY NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. WPC
LIKED THIS SOLUTION AS IT MATCHED PRETTY WELL WITH THEIR
EXPERIMENTAL DAY 4 WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST
A QUARTER INCH OF QPF. THE ONE COMMENT THEY HAD IS THAT THE
PARALLEL RUN MAY BE A TAD PROGRESSIVE. THE 29/00Z GFSP HAD A VERY
SIMILAR FORECAST AS WELL.
Which means what?..They believe storm not going to hit MSP?
DeleteYes, that particular model, which later this year will become the full functional GFS, had it going clear south of MSP.
DeleteFrom this morning's forecast discussion from the NWS in LaCrosse. Remember, this is for LaCrosse, not the Twin Cities.
ReplyDeleteWINTER STORM WATCHES AND/OR BLIZZARD WATCHES ARE STILL LIKELY FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT...UNLESS THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS WINTER STORM.
I'm still perplexed with the GFS/NAM solutions from yesterday. How in the world could they miss & mislead us so badly? We need to understand this moving forward.
ReplyDeleteI wonder how many forecasters & media outlets jumped on those ominous solutions & hyped snow for later today into Sunday?
Neither Weather.com nor Kare 11 pounced on it. Those forecasts stayed pretty steady for the weekend. Can't speak for other outlets.
DeleteI totally agree Novak. Was there amd gone again just like that. The gem mad a huge shift n to come very close to gfs and euro now....finally some serious tightening of consensus
ReplyDeleteNot sure why it came up as uknown name for my last post (shrugs)
ReplyDeleteWell, things are looking a lot better on the models this morning if you're looking for snow in MSP. A noticeable shift NW on the 12z GFS, and a substantial shift NW on the 12z GGEM. The GGEM seems like it's finally catching onto the trends. It had been the southern solution from the start, but the 12z run may be the beginning of a serious push in this direction.
ReplyDeleteSo in the end is it going to snow or not at MSP? and how much?
ReplyDeletecan someone provide their best estimate?
It should snow at MSP... How much isn't really worth discussing right now. Because its too far out but if you really want to know the latest snow totals that potentially could happen. I recommend you use pivotalweather.
DeleteThe cip analogs highest score out of the 12z suite appears to be the 12/23 12/24 1996 which turned out to be again a pretty nasty storm just southeast of the core metro.
ReplyDeleteI think the airport ws slightly over 6 inches on that storm.
I feel we may somewhat closer to 4 inches...
4 inches sounds kinda low... I'm thinking southeast metro could potentially get 5-8 inches. We should know a lot more with the 0z run Monday morning when the storm hits the coast.
Deletei am going to stick with 4 inches officially at the airport.
DeleteTons of NW shifts today, almost every model, although two main camps remain (GFS vs. Everybody Else). 18z GFS paints a foot for MSP and 16" for Rochester. The writing is most definitely not on the wall. Excited for the 0z runs, do they shift even more? Hold? Go back SE?
ReplyDeleteGotta love having a storm like this to track while it's in the 40s on a weekend in January. :D
Maybe time for a new video and thread since this has so many comments?
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ReplyDeleteWow, NWS has posted snow totals already. 4-6 Metro, closer to 8 for Rochester. Very tight cutoff just north of the Metro. I'm really surprised they are putting totals on this already. Bold.
ReplyDeletei think the labelling is misplaced on that chart. When I looked closely at the shading it seems the core metro is more into the 3-4 range.
DeletePreliminary right now i am sure...u gotta start somewhere sometime and tweak them up or down
ReplyDeleteNAM way south/east.
ReplyDeleteNAM is crap beyond 48 hours. 12z run had a closed off low at H5, 0z its completely gone? Just shows a weak elongated mess. Not buying it. Let's see if the GFS or Euro follow suit in any way.
DeleteDoes anyone have a good idea on timing for this storm? I'm flying out of MSP at 1pm Tuesday. Am I safe?
ReplyDeleteSnow looks to start at MSP around noon... but keep in mind this will mostly likely change.
DeleteSome early numbers rolling in for Tuesday:
ReplyDeleteWCCO....3-6"
Weather.com....4-8"
AccuWeather....2-4"
NWS....3-6"
Seems like we will get "some" snow, but the main show looks to sail south of the metro.
Nice work big daddy! One more....
DeleteWx Underground....4-8"
Wonder how KARE and KSTP weighed in. (Though we can probably predict -- tho, wait, KARE probably wouldn't give totals this far out.)
DeleteKSTP- 2-4"
DeleteAnd I'm seeing 1-3" for the NWS.
NWS said 4-6...
DeleteWell technically you can go with 1-6" from the NWS...depending on where you live in the metro...just another in an endless line of gradient storms...but yes NWS has 4-6" at the airport
ReplyDeleteJust curious...where are you seeing NWS 4-6" for MSP? I'm not doubting you, I am just not able to find it for myself. I just see 1-3" on the "detailed forecast".
ReplyDeleteI'm looking at graphical forecast on their home page and on Twitter.. under Twin Cities the 4-6" line cuts through the southern core where the airport is located...like I said earlier this again will be another tight gradient snowfall and I'm sure it will change again tomorrow.
DeleteYou have to dig for it. It's here: http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2016/01/eyeing-possible-storm-for-next-week.html#comment-form
ReplyDeleteWhat are we digging for Bill?
DeleteBad sign for all snowlovers?? A storm system is about 60 hours away and the last comment from the so called experts, Novak,Randyinchamplin,Duane was 24 hours ago. Bad omen, southeast shift back on!
ReplyDeleteI've been trying to stay quiet until the system comes ashore. I don't really want to type every single time it bumps east or west or north or south. Fluctuations, as expected, are still occurring. Don't be surprised if some areas of MN and WI are issued watches overnight, especially by the forecast office in La Crosse.
ReplyDeleteAnd they did. Blizzard for Iowa and far southern MN, Winter Storm for SE corner of MN and a bigger chunk of WI. Metro downgraded to a couple of inches. GFS seems to be the only real optimistic model left for the Metro to do better. So far the early predictions of the strength of the storm are still accurate, just appears to be around 100 miles further south.
DeleteEnjoy the storm Rochester south and east. Send pictures. Maybe we'll get a token inch in the metro. The metro will once again be the little kid with its sad face pressed against the window wishing he was on the inside having fun too. Some day perhaps.
ReplyDeleteAt least Novak and Duane will enjoy a snowstorm. Metro will enjoy another near miss coating.
ReplyDeleteI would have thought all the hot air blowing around Iowa this weekend might nubge the storm north enough to hit MSP. Come on snow!!!!
ReplyDeleteHey Bill...any way we can get a new thread. Looks like a near miss, but swifting thru almost 200 comments is pretty much. Thanks for the consideration.
ReplyDeleteNuisance is a good word for our snow on Tuesday and all winter in the metro!
ReplyDeletefirst signs by some of the shorter term models are suggesting a shift north and west led my the NCAR ensemble forecast system with many members putting heavy snow down in Central NE. The over night run of the GFS made similar move as the did the RPM model.
ReplyDeleteIsn't this what always happens? Late model shift to get our hopes up, then the storm goes as previously predicted.
ReplyDeleteNWS called for freezing rain starting around 8pm in the Twin Cities last night. Oops. Not only was it too warm to freeze, it didn't even rain. I only know about this forecast because I saw a map they put on facebook. It showed the progression of the freezing rain. Nothing happened, at least not in the TC.
ReplyDeleteThat was Friday night. Probably classic Facebook showing stuff on your timeline way out of order.
Deletehttps://www.facebook.com/NWSTwinCities/photos/a.209333942433409.59745.200752513291552/1108598835840244/
More NW shifts basically across the board this morning, namely the Euro and NAM, but the GEM did as well. GFS actually went a tad SE but not much.
ReplyDeleteIt'll be fully sampled with tonight's runs and hopefully we can start to make confident predictions.
Really liked seeing euro do what it did..gem did get stronger but lost punch quick while euro maintained..will be fun to see if euro is on to trend
ReplyDeleteI believe the bigger story here in the metro is the warmth not this miss of a storm. A week long thaw that was capped off with a 43°(nearly twenty degrees above average) day on Saturday which has resulted in melted snow and several grass sightings throughout the metro.
ReplyDeleteWinter coming to a close perhaps, early spring?with snow being pretty much nonexistent(well below average) and after a cold spell next week can spring be far behind.
Bring Spring!
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DeleteI don't know if we are going to miss the storm from the looks of it... NAM, GFS, GEM Models have all tracked further north over the past 12 hours.
DeleteANON @ 3:37...Huh??? Snowiest winters ever? Please humor us and explain why you think this
ReplyDeleteobviously i meant least snowy. Typed too fast.
ReplyDelete