Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
Thursday, February 2, 2017
Snow lovers have become increasingly disenchanted as 2016-17 becomes a winter of discontent. As we enter February, historically the lowest snow-producing winter month, there was at least something to follow for next week.
Funny, yet frustrating, how model guidance can flip-flop from one run to another. GFS now hinting @ a full blown Blizzard over much of the Upper Midwest on TUE into WED. Yesterday, it showed hardly anything. I can't wait to see some of the weather outlets jump all over this latest GFS revelation, especially after they dismissed the idea yesterday.
Truth is, for the past several days, upper level dynamics with all model guidances have looked favorable for a significant storm over our region. Still a long ways to go with this one, but it sure looks interesting.
It will either shift south or too much warm air will be pulled to give us precip type issues. As usual. Watch how the 850mb temps will start to go up as we get closer... or qpf to go down as it shifts to the south and east. Either way, it will be a disappointment.
Can we actually discuss the system instead of constantly saying how this one will bust?
Getting really annoying and a big reason why I personally rarely post here anymore. So many anon's just trying to find a way to cry bust before it happens on every single system.
Right on que, NWS brings up precip type issues as well as the storm trending north into central/northern Minnesota per the EURO and GEM model. Sorry snowlovers who residue in MSP significant snows not in the cards this winter!
all guidance shows very cold air returning for the middle of next week with a 1040mb high and h85 temps around -20C due in for Thursday. After that though, the GFS and ECMWF say our temperatures will be back off to the races as a very mild zonal flow sends us back into the land of mild Pacific airmasses.
It is wayyyyy too early to call this thing. I agree that no way the GFS totals will be right, but I also know I have a flight to Florida Tuesday so it's bound to snow!
Does anyone know where I can see more Euro details? Do you have to pay for it? I use pivotalweather and it doesn't have much for the Euro.
Saturday's snow has now disappeared from the forecast (surprise, surprise). Like so many other times this winter, for several days the NWS said "snow likely" for a given day, only to start backing off from that wording as the day got closer, and then finally removing snow from the forecast. Don't be surprised if that happens with next week's storm...or, in the alternative, a warm front comes through and gives us rain/mix (like that hasn't happened a couple of times already this winter, yeah right. Does Christmas ring a bell to anyone?).
"for several days the NWS said "snow likely" for a given day, only to start backing off from that wording as the day got closer, and then finally removing snow from the forecast"
Yes, that's how forecasting works. Guidance becomes more clear (hopefully, usually) as the event (or lackthereof) gets nearer. Would you rather them stick to "snow likely" because that's what the GFS said several days of runs ago?
I think the issue is that exactly because of what you mention (guidance gets clearer as the event approaches) it is ridiculous to me to say 'snow likely' a lot of days in advance. "likely' does the exact opposite of conveying that degree of uncertainty which is part of forecasting and that you correctly point it out. I think the problem is that uncertainty is not well conveyed to the public.
I was told once that the probabilities for storms reads like "8 of 10 times the system set up like this we had snow." So, think of how putting a golf ball works. Within the first few inches after the putt, one could say there's a high percentage probability that the ball will go in the hold. As the ball moves farther along the path the probability changes. I think the forecasters still need to say "likely" because at that moment in time with the probability information they have, it could be "likely." However, it is cruel to those of us who like snow...and get little to none (or get rain).
Guys, obviously you have not read my previous posts! It's not a track problem anymore, it's a temperature problem! Welcome to the new normal. It does not snow anymore in MSP as it used to. The dynamics to bring the storm track close enough to bring precip to the area also bring too much warm air. It's done for MSP. And then in 5-10 years it will be the same for Central and in 20 years for Northern MN. Done!
Depends what metric you consider. 17 momths in a row of above avg temperature? 50% more ice and mixed precip events since 2000? Below mean average snow cover since 2012? Just to name a few...
Look back a at the last really cold winter a few years ago I believe and see how much snow fell at my house in Brooklyn Center we had about a 80-100 inches of snow.
What is being talked about (more warmth) is critical & worth diving deep into the reasons. I'm not an alarmist, but I know when something is not right. Something is not right.
You took the words right out of my mouth. Minn-Atlantic is unfortunately the most accurate term for us around here anymore. How depressing is that? Also, as others mentioned earlier, even with a historically perfect storm track for big snows, we have precip issues...in December...in January...in February. That would be much more understandable if we were dealing with an October or April system. Depressing, very depressing!
The forecast of an 80% chance of snowy and windy conditions for the metro from a couple of days ago for early next week has followed the now predictable trend of RAIN and MILD (aka Minn-Atlantic or Minn-adelphia (Philadelphia-effect) fashion). If there is a God will he please fast forward us to May to put us snow fans out of our misery?
I just want to make a quick comment about the discussion regarding the "snow likely" NWS forecast language. I understand that systems and forecasts evolve over time, and that as we get closer to the actual event forecasts can change dramatically (current case in point, look at this morning's metro forecast for early next week as compared to just 24 hours ago). However, instead of saying "snow likely" and then gradually changing that to either no snow or to rain, why doesn't the NWS just say "snow possible"? When they say that snow is likely that naturally invokes in most people an expectation that it will snow. If they instead say that snow is possible, most people will take note that it's possible that it might snow on a certain day, and they will keep an eye on the forecast for updates, but otherwise they will move on with life and not expect snow. Granted, some people are very happy when a snow forecast does not come to fruition, but there are many people who really enjoy snow and are very disappointed when their expectations are raised and then later smashed, as has been the case this winter time and time again. Just a thought. Thanks!
It appears that the GFS and Euro are now bringing next week's storm much farther north, now across southern MN instead of across central Iowa. Time will tell whether or not the models will make a southerly shift. Given the way this winter has been going my money is solidly on any subsequent shifts being farther north and/or west.
"It appears that the GFS and Euro are now bringing next week's storm much farther north, now across southern MN instead of across central Iowa." Confused... the post a few hours ago on FB by Novak have the storm hitting mostly Northern MN / Wisconsin. Much further north would put it in Canada
Anyone know what we're sitting at for total seasonal snowfall? I'm curious to track this throughout the spring to gauge how inept it will in fact be, or if there will be a rebound. Crazy to think that this time last year we were sitting so low with snowfall, in an El Nino year, and now coming into a La Nina year, we're doing even worse for snowfall! Crazy.
What a waste of a winter, every freakin snowstorm misses MSP! Springy weather arrives next weekend and beyond a lot of 30's and 40's, dare I say a 50, could be in the next two weeks.
At least Paul Douglas's blog today in the local paper reaffirms that winters were way different in my youth. Sad. I have a relative whose livelihood partially depends on 'winter'..... and 'winter' is definitely affecting business, and more than 'just one time' or 'just occasionally'. I repeat, sad. This ice, this rain, this freezing drizzle.... not Minnesota.
Upper Level dynamics are still there, esp. on TUE. Plus, it is dangerous to simply look at model QPF this far out & consider that parameter gold. It is going to be interesting to see how model guidance handles the low level features as main storm energy comes ashore over the next 24 hrs.
The potential exists for a solid 6 to 12 hour period of forcing over the Upper Midwest from 6am to 6pm TUE. I still believe that the bulk of this forcing will be located just north of the MSP metro around DLH & Hayward, but if this area develops a bit further south, then MSP would get in on the mix. That is certainly possible.
Really? The NWS just changed the point forecast for Plymouth. Now they have things at a max of 40% chance of precipitation. And that precip is all mixed. Accumulations were taken out completely. They had 1-3 inches before. When I read Novak's last comment, I was holding out hope. Forget it. Bring Nothin'!!
We saw how far off long term models can be. Go back 5 days and the models were showing s major storm. That puts forecasters in a pickle that we talk about often in this forum. Is it better to discuss storms early and miss sometimes or wait until you are sure (which can be less than 24 hours).
As we say in the stats world "all models are wrong, some models are useful". Long term models seem good enough to show major patterns (cold vs heat waves) but I don't think they have the resolution yet to predict storms track and location with the accuracy necessary to be able to state 'snow likely' 5 days out.
What we have learned is that true Minnesota winters are a thing of the past. The Twin Cities, for example, is entrenched in its third consecutive non-winter. February is promising to be the 18th consecutive month with above average temperatures. Way to go NWS for blowing the winter forecast! Colder and snowier than normal? Ah, where might that be?! El Nino is rearing its ugly head already for next winter. Historically, this is the time when the TC should have its deepest snow cover for the season. Instead, in most places there is exactly the same amount of snow on the ground as in Miami, FL...none! Rain is in the forecast...AGAIN...for this upcoming Saturday. Etc., etc., etc. Watch out Fairbanks, AK, your population is about to explode with winter lovers in search of some hope, any hope, for something that remotely resembles winter.
I was watching the Minneapolis Super Bowl special on Kare 11 last night. They were talking about giving visitors the winter experience next February when they come to town for the game. How embarrassing is it going to be when it's 52 degrees, raining and probably green grass? So much for the ice palace they are planning on building.
@Davin your kidding right?, I hope you are, if all these missed opportunities of snow doesn't tell you something then look at how warm temps will be from Friday thru Monday (upper 30's to low 40's) LOL not exactly snow weather for MSP. But keep hoping the squirrel sometimes finds the nut, maybe one day Mother Nature will find MSP and deliver snow!
Thaw was the norm this winter. Of the 69 days of winter so far (31 in dec + 31 jan + 7 in Feb) 36 have been at 32 or above. That's 52% more than half. Considering what's coming in the forecast we will probably reach 60% or close of thaw days. I think there is enough evidence to make the final call: Winter in the Twin Cities is dead.
The worst way to predict long term trends is to pick and choose data. This list doesn't prove or disprove anything. It's just arbitrary numbers. Long term trends show winters are warmer and shorter in Minnesota!
And good riddance to it. This weather is extremely painful. I'm getting bloody noses and chapped hands. Cold cold cold drive to work. No flippin idea why someone would ever miss it.
You’ll remember the “polar vortex” winter of 2013-2014:
Just 3 years ago, and you people have no memories.
The WMI for the winter of 2013-14 in Twin Cities was 207 points, or in the high end of the “severe winter” category. This was the 9th most severe winter on record based on WMI points. The lowest WMI score was the winter of 2011-2012 with 16 points. The most severe winter is 1916-1917 with 305 WMI points.
I also feel most people on here tend to forget that Minnesota does have real winters still, just not as common. Good point to bring up the 13-14 winter! That winter was not only very cold but also was associated with a fair few Alberta clippers. Which quickly added up to nearly 3 or more feet of snow on the ground by early March! With that being said I do think the majority of winters are getting warmer but you can't rule out a cold and snowy one.
The problem is not Minnesota in general but the Twin Cities. Duluth has 14 inches of snow on the ground (50 inches more or less fell so far) so that's normal. Rochester has about 7 inches on the ground with about 32-33 inches total snowfall also about average. The Twin Cities has been caught in 'no-man's land' for a few winters now. I believe that the warming winters (only a fool would deny that) are enhancing a phenomenon which always happened in the past but that is making things much worse for Twin Cities snow lovers: the persistence of a split flow between the polar and southern jet streams. So big storms either bypass to the south (Rochester) or to the north (Duluth). When the track is right the phasing still either does not happen with the southern stream dominating and bringing too much warm air, or it happens too much to our east (we get just the cold after the moisture is out). Unless this pattern changes and phasing is reinstated early enough in a storm cycle the Twin Cities will be in a snow drought. If you look at the snow-cover map for MN you'll see a doughnut about the metro area. If it were just warmth then you'd expect south of here to be even less snowy, but has not been the case. So I believe it is the phasing of the jet streams.
Your thinking is right in line with the folks who believe global warming is a myth because it snowed in their backyards yesterday.
The lack of snow in the Twin Cities, when there's some snow outside the metro, has nothing to do with the jet stream. The jet stream is not a localized phenomenon. It affects huge swaths, not just one city.
Roads and parking lots get plowed, exposing bare pavement. There are more buildings that reflect sunlight to the ground. All this stuff absorbs and reflects heat a lot more efficiently than snow does. It acts as a heat bank and helps to melt any adjacent snow.
I like your optimism that winter will appear in late December 2017 or so. The early indications are that El Nino will return for next winter. That will make 4 consecutive non-winters here in the Twin Cities. Therefore, have a good year and a half everybody. Hopefully we'll reconvene for a REAL winter...finally...in December 2018. In the meanwhile sunny skies and 50 plus degree temperatures will be the norm, not the exception, this week through next weekend. You know, typical February weather....for Raleigh, NC!
I hope not, I hate how this site is so quiet in the summer. Granted, we've hardly had any semblance of a severe weather season the last few years, but hopefully some people stick around!
I'll be here. I love summer weather! I'd say last summer was better, with that big one we had that knocked out power for a couple days. My six-year-old daughter has begun taking an interest in weather and prediction.
I also love the delicious taste of snow-lover tears.
Don't be too optimistic. I don't think a real winter will ever happen again. Trends are clear. La Nina, El Nino don't mean anything anymore. Someone needs to come up with some new indices of teleconnections or similar. Climate patterns are shifting in a way that needs to be analyzed and possibly understood in a completely different way. NWS/NOAA predicting 'below average' temperature because of La Nina was obviously wrong and an over-simplification. It is clear that it didn't matter at all. Something else is mattering and needs to be understood. As Novak said a few weeks ago: something is not right, and I think we need to understand what it is.
I've posted this here before, Minnesota weather back in 1878.
http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/wint77_78.html
Sure, something could be changing, can't argue with that. Our detailed weather data doesn't go back very far so I'm not ready to pronounce a permanent change since I'm not sure what normal is over thousands of years.
It was just a year ago that I heard California would be in a permanent drought, now they have so much water that dams are close to bursting. Weather is a strange and fascinating beast.
Statistically it's not a trend, too short of a sample size. I approach it from a pure statistical look, 120 years or so of data isn't enough. That said, I could end up being wrong in the long run. Short term changes/trend, yes. Long term? Way too early to call.
That MSP winters are trending warmer is a fact. Just by comparing the NWS daily averages (which are 10-year moving averages of the past 30 years, updated every 10 years) 1971-2000 vs 1981-2010 they are mostly and significantly higher. That winters are trending less snowy is a bit tricky for me to say for sure: 10 years MSP average snowfall: 29/30 - 39/40 : 39.2 39/40 - 49/50 : 37.6 49/50 - 59/60 : 42.7 59/60 - 69/70 : 52.2 69/70 - 79/80 : 54.7 79/80 - 89/90 : 59.7 (but mostly due to the record setting 83-84) 89/90 - 99/00 : 52.6 99/00 - 09/10 : 47.9 09/10 - 15/16 : 52.5
As you can see the trend is mixed. The 70s and 80s were snowier than now but again it was less snowy before that. Looking at the numbers it seems (as many have mentioned a few times) that MSP is just not as snowy as people think it is, and certainly not as snowy as you'd expect given the avg temperatures.
Thanks for the numbers, definitely interesting to look at. Also it's probably worth noting that the 52.5 this decade is propped up at least some by the 2010-2011 season (domebuster, presidents day storm).
MSP definitely isn't as snowy as some seem to think. I believe I've seen before that MSP only averages one 12"+ storm every two years.
Those snowfall averages by decade mirror the temperature averages by decade.
The planet is warming, our winters are becoming more mild. But also, the winters of the 70s and 80s were harsher than average, and certainly NOT the norm.
So when people talk about winters of yore and how we're getting soft, I can only assume they're thinking of those two decades (Huttner and Douglas certainly are), and people either forget or don't know that winters used to be milder.
Also, the average for 09/10 - 15/16 is skewed because of the massive snowfall in 2010/2011.
You guys act like people bank on storms a week out and then are flabbergasted when it doesn't pan out. It's just something to watch, the naysayers are the only ones every "hyping" stuff lately around here.
I am curious as to how this unofficial El Nino compares to last season's official Super El Nino, temperature-wise. There is no doubt that February will go down as a blast furnace with temperatures I am guessing at least 7 degrees above normal for the month. December was "only" 1.5 degrees above normal, and January 2017 was 5.3 degrees above normal. Didn't the NWS predict a colder than average winter for us this season? lol Talk about earning a grade of a solid F-!! However, it seems that they never miss the mark when they predict above average temperatures.
With the string of 50's/60's predicted for at least the next week, I wouldn't be surprised if February's monthly temperatures come out close to 10 degrees above average.
Indeed. Personally I just like the idea of HAVING something to look at even if it likely won't happen. At least now there is something to do weather wise. Haha.
Current Water Vapor imagery shows a very strong omega block that has set up with deep troughs over the east and west coast and a very strong upper ridge over the middle of the country. When you get this strong of a omega block its very hard to move the pattern to the east, but it will slowly do so. While it does, it is likely that a storm will develop along the eastern edge of the leading west coast trough as it moves from west to east. It's almost impossible that the storm track will be suppressed to the south far enough that Minnesota doesn't get affected. As the storm develops it will ingest a great deal of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and could see a surface low that is sub 990mb as it approaches the upper midwest. Because of the blocking pattern, this low pressure system is likely to cut up into the western Great Lakes and travel a favorable path for winter storm warnings for Minnesota. The question remains where will the heaviest snows be and will it affect the Metro.
Well considering how the metro usually misses out on the major snowstorms this one will go either north or south and leave the metro on the low-end fringes(like the 1-3"'s), what's that saying don't buck the trends!
Which if it continues, dare I say it....a metro miss! Enjoy the record heat, screw tracking the thaw we may end up with a week long consecutive record streak, in February no less!
As usual as we get closer to it profiles will become warmer and warmer. it will be just rain for the metro. We watched this movies already. Nothing different, nothing to report. If you like snow, move somewhere where it 'really' snows.
I'm screen-shotting and saving all of these ridiculously hyping articles that are out there right now. Even the NWS of all places. It's just amazing that people never learn. The over-hyping, click-bait inducing, ratings-seeking hysteria never fails to impress.
Guess the NWS is on board.... The GFS and ECMWF have quite the snowstorm for the region for Friday and Saturday. It`s a phenomenal event with both predicting QPF values from 1 to 2 inches across our entire area. A simple 10 to 1 snow ratio tells you how much snow could fall. A trend noted with this storm is that is does not involve phasing as several other of our failed snow events did. This one is simply a wave now west of the Aleutians Islands, reaching the west coast by mid week and then pushing eastward from there. Needless to say 100 pops are already in the forecast for Friday from FB.
Funny, yet frustrating, how model guidance can flip-flop from one run to another. GFS now hinting @ a full blown Blizzard over much of the Upper Midwest on TUE into WED. Yesterday, it showed hardly anything. I can't wait to see some of the weather outlets jump all over this latest GFS revelation, especially after they dismissed the idea yesterday.
ReplyDeleteTruth is, for the past several days, upper level dynamics with all model guidances have looked favorable for a significant storm over our region. Still a long ways to go with this one, but it sure looks interesting.
Well its nice to see Euro has stayed on track the whole time. GFS not so much but I like to see they are both agreeing once again on a major blizzard!
DeleteWhat is the record snowfall event for February in the Twin Cities? Let's go for it.
ReplyDeleteIt will either shift south or too much warm air will be pulled to give us precip type issues. As usual.
ReplyDeleteWatch how the 850mb temps will start to go up as we get closer...
or qpf to go down as it shifts to the south and east.
Either way, it will be a disappointment.
My chips are all in on the 'dry slot'
DeleteCan we actually discuss the system instead of constantly saying how this one will bust?
DeleteGetting really annoying and a big reason why I personally rarely post here anymore. So many anon's just trying to find a way to cry bust before it happens on every single system.
Sorry this came off wrong, the first anon actually has discussion points, which are nice. I meant the anon replying.
DeleteRight on que, NWS brings up precip type issues as well as the storm trending north into central/northern Minnesota per the EURO and GEM model. Sorry snowlovers who residue in MSP significant snows not in the cards this winter!
ReplyDeleteAfter the "storm", NWS says VERY mild airmass zonal flow situation impending. Bring on more of the melt! Early spring! La Ninas are great!
ReplyDeleteall guidance shows very cold air
Deletereturning for the middle of next week with a 1040mb high and h85
temps around -20C due in for Thursday. After that though, the GFS
and ECMWF say our temperatures will be back off to the races as a
very mild zonal flow sends us back into the land of mild Pacific
airmasses.
It is wayyyyy too early to call this thing. I agree that no way the GFS totals will be right, but I also know I have a flight to Florida Tuesday so it's bound to snow!
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone know where I can see more Euro details? Do you have to pay for it? I use pivotalweather and it doesn't have much for the Euro.
Dave, you can try the free trail over at Eurowx.com after that it's a pay site but it's very reasonable.
ReplyDeleteThanks Randy
DeleteSaturday's snow has now disappeared from the forecast (surprise, surprise). Like so many other times this winter, for several days the NWS said "snow likely" for a given day, only to start backing off from that wording as the day got closer, and then finally removing snow from the forecast. Don't be surprised if that happens with next week's storm...or, in the alternative, a warm front comes through and gives us rain/mix (like that hasn't happened a couple of times already this winter, yeah right. Does Christmas ring a bell to anyone?).
ReplyDelete"for several days the NWS said "snow likely" for a given day, only to start backing off from that wording as the day got closer, and then finally removing snow from the forecast"
DeleteYes, that's how forecasting works. Guidance becomes more clear (hopefully, usually) as the event (or lackthereof) gets nearer. Would you rather them stick to "snow likely" because that's what the GFS said several days of runs ago?
I think the issue is that exactly because of what you mention (guidance gets clearer as the event approaches) it is ridiculous to me to say 'snow likely' a lot of days in advance.
Delete"likely' does the exact opposite of conveying that degree of uncertainty which is part of forecasting and that you correctly point it out.
I think the problem is that uncertainty is not well conveyed to the public.
I was told once that the probabilities for storms reads like "8 of 10 times the system set up like this we had snow." So, think of how putting a golf ball works. Within the first few inches after the putt, one could say there's a high percentage probability that the ball will go in the hold. As the ball moves farther along the path the probability changes. I think the forecasters still need to say "likely" because at that moment in time with the probability information they have, it could be "likely." However, it is cruel to those of us who like snow...and get little to none (or get rain).
DeleteWell put Darrik! Keep posting that as a reminder!
DeleteLooks like the low is perfectly southeast of region (euro / gfs) for a big snow storm yet the 850 temps are near / above freezing! WTH!
ReplyDeleteIndeed. Track does not come much better. We just need a bit better thermal profile and we are in a great spot!
DeleteGuys, obviously you have not read my previous posts!
DeleteIt's not a track problem anymore, it's a temperature problem!
Welcome to the new normal.
It does not snow anymore in MSP as it used to.
The dynamics to bring the storm track close enough to bring precip to the area also bring too much warm air.
It's done for MSP. And then in 5-10 years it will be the same for Central and in 20 years for Northern MN.
Done!
How far back did the "new normal" start in msp?
DeleteDepends what metric you consider.
Delete17 momths in a row of above avg temperature?
50% more ice and mixed precip events since 2000?
Below mean average snow cover since 2012?
Just to name a few...
Look back a at the last really cold winter a few years ago I believe and see how much snow fell at my house in Brooklyn Center we had about a 80-100 inches of snow.
DeleteGood stuff everyone.
ReplyDeleteWhat is being talked about (more warmth) is critical & worth diving deep into the reasons. I'm not an alarmist, but I know when something is not right. Something is not right.
But hey, it will be cold enough for all snow just after the storm passes, again, welcome to Minn-Atlantic!
ReplyDeleteYou took the words right out of my mouth. Minn-Atlantic is unfortunately the most accurate term for us around here anymore. How depressing is that? Also, as others mentioned earlier, even with a historically perfect storm track for big snows, we have precip issues...in December...in January...in February. That would be much more understandable if we were dealing with an October or April system. Depressing, very depressing!
DeleteThe forecast of an 80% chance of snowy and windy conditions for the metro from a couple of days ago for early next week has followed the now predictable trend of RAIN and MILD (aka Minn-Atlantic or Minn-adelphia (Philadelphia-effect) fashion). If there is a God will he please fast forward us to May to put us snow fans out of our misery?
ReplyDeleteI just want to make a quick comment about the discussion regarding the "snow likely" NWS forecast language. I understand that systems and forecasts evolve over time, and that as we get closer to the actual event forecasts can change dramatically (current case in point, look at this morning's metro forecast for early next week as compared to just 24 hours ago). However, instead of saying "snow likely" and then gradually changing that to either no snow or to rain, why doesn't the NWS just say "snow possible"? When they say that snow is likely that naturally invokes in most people an expectation that it will snow. If they instead say that snow is possible, most people will take note that it's possible that it might snow on a certain day, and they will keep an eye on the forecast for updates, but otherwise they will move on with life and not expect snow. Granted, some people are very happy when a snow forecast does not come to fruition, but there are many people who really enjoy snow and are very disappointed when their expectations are raised and then later smashed, as has been the case this winter time and time again. Just a thought. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteIt appears that the GFS and Euro are now bringing next week's storm much farther north, now across southern MN instead of across central Iowa. Time will tell whether or not the models will make a southerly shift. Given the way this winter has been going my money is solidly on any subsequent shifts being farther north and/or west.
ReplyDelete"It appears that the GFS and Euro are now bringing next week's storm much farther north, now across southern MN instead of across central Iowa." Confused... the post a few hours ago on FB by Novak have the storm hitting mostly Northern MN / Wisconsin. Much further north would put it in Canada
ReplyDeleteAnyone know what we're sitting at for total seasonal snowfall? I'm curious to track this throughout the spring to gauge how inept it will in fact be, or if there will be a rebound. Crazy to think that this time last year we were sitting so low with snowfall, in an El Nino year, and now coming into a La Nina year, we're doing even worse for snowfall! Crazy.
ReplyDeleteWow, according to the 12z GFS it appears that the storm is now going to completely miss the southern half of MN!
ReplyDeleteWhat a waste of a winter, every freakin snowstorm misses MSP!
ReplyDeleteSpringy weather arrives next weekend and beyond a lot of 30's and 40's, dare I say a 50, could be in the next two weeks.
I feel your pain. It's one non-winter after another around here anymore.
DeleteAt least Paul Douglas's blog today in the local paper reaffirms that winters were way different in my youth. Sad. I have a relative whose livelihood partially depends on 'winter'..... and 'winter' is definitely affecting business, and more than 'just one time' or 'just occasionally'. I repeat, sad. This ice, this rain, this freezing drizzle.... not Minnesota.
ReplyDelete"Storm" becoming non-event--->mix to 1" snow. Lame!Boring!
ReplyDeleteUpper Level dynamics are still there, esp. on TUE. Plus, it is dangerous to simply look at model QPF this far out & consider that parameter gold. It is going to be interesting to see how model guidance handles the low level features as main storm energy comes ashore over the next 24 hrs.
ReplyDeleteThe potential exists for a solid 6 to 12 hour period of forcing over the Upper Midwest from 6am to 6pm TUE. I still believe that the bulk of this forcing will be located just north of the MSP metro around DLH & Hayward, but if this area develops a bit further south, then MSP would get in on the mix. That is certainly possible.
Come on Novak, love your passion but you give too much hope for snowlovers in MSP!!
DeleteReally? The NWS just changed the point forecast for Plymouth. Now they have things at a max of 40% chance of precipitation. And that precip is all mixed. Accumulations were taken out completely. They had 1-3 inches before. When I read Novak's last comment, I was holding out hope. Forget it. Bring Nothin'!!
ReplyDeleteFinally your getting it, MSP winters suck.
Deleteguys, it does not snow anymore in MSP.
ReplyDeleteGet over it. It's sad but that's the reality.
Hilarious Dave Dahl tonight still calling for 2-4" in the metro, all the while NWS says 40% chance of mix!
ReplyDeleteBest. Winter. Ever. And a brewing El Nino for next winter? The future is bright!
ReplyDeleteActually the best winter ever was 2011/2012. 52 beautiful degrees the day after Christmas.
DeleteEl Nino you say? Bring that!!
Is it too early to start looking into how these above average temps will will affect the severe season?... Might be a fun one.
ReplyDeleteHaha!! They can barely predict the weather tomorrow let alone six months from now.
DeleteSo what have we learned this past week? When NWS says "snow likely" don't expect much of anything!
ReplyDeleteWe saw how far off long term models can be. Go back 5 days and the models were showing s major storm. That puts forecasters in a pickle that we talk about often in this forum. Is it better to discuss storms early and miss sometimes or wait until you are sure (which can be less than 24 hours).
ReplyDeleteAs we say in the stats world "all models are wrong, some models are useful".
ReplyDeleteLong term models seem good enough to show major patterns (cold vs heat waves) but I don't think they have the resolution yet to predict storms track and location with the accuracy necessary to be able to state 'snow likely' 5 days out.
What we have learned is that true Minnesota winters are a thing of the past. The Twin Cities, for example, is entrenched in its third consecutive non-winter. February is promising to be the 18th consecutive month with above average temperatures. Way to go NWS for blowing the winter forecast! Colder and snowier than normal? Ah, where might that be?! El Nino is rearing its ugly head already for next winter. Historically, this is the time when the TC should have its deepest snow cover for the season. Instead, in most places there is exactly the same amount of snow on the ground as in Miami, FL...none! Rain is in the forecast...AGAIN...for this upcoming Saturday. Etc., etc., etc. Watch out Fairbanks, AK, your population is about to explode with winter lovers in search of some hope, any hope, for something that remotely resembles winter.
ReplyDeleteI was watching the Minneapolis Super Bowl special on Kare 11 last night. They were talking about giving visitors the winter experience next February when they come to town for the game. How embarrassing is it going to be when it's 52 degrees, raining and probably green grass? So much for the ice palace they are planning on building.
I think everyone except probably dave dahl would agree with you.
DeleteI think it is obvious.
52 in Feb. That would be awesome!
ReplyDeleteSunday-Monday is our next potential chance of snow. Guess we will see how that pans out...
ReplyDeleteLOL...surely you jest! Place your bets, folks.
Delete@Davin your kidding right?, I hope you are, if all these missed opportunities of snow doesn't tell you something then look at how warm temps will be from Friday thru Monday (upper 30's to low 40's) LOL not exactly snow weather for MSP. But keep hoping the squirrel sometimes finds the nut, maybe one day Mother Nature will find MSP and deliver snow!
Deleteyou're
DeleteAttention, Everyone! You don't have to go to Fairbanks to find winter. It's in northern Maine at least for the next week.
ReplyDeleteAnother 12 day thaw on the horizon? Sure looks possible starting Friday and beyond, several 40's incoming. Early spring? Who's grilling this weekend?
ReplyDeleteThaw was the norm this winter.
ReplyDeleteOf the 69 days of winter so far (31 in dec + 31 jan + 7 in Feb) 36 have been at 32 or above. That's 52% more than half.
Considering what's coming in the forecast we will probably reach 60% or close of thaw days.
I think there is enough evidence to make the final call:
Winter in the Twin Cities is dead.
And so are my high heating bills! Thank you thaw.
DeleteWhy wasn't winter dead after the years?
Delete1. 1930-31 ....... 14.2
2. 1894-95 ....... 16.2
3. 1986-87 ....... 17.4
4. 1967-68 ....... 17.5
5. 1958-59 ....... 19.1
6. 1920-21 ....... 20.6
7. 1980-81 ....... 21.1
8. 1957-58 ....... 21.2
9. 2011-12 ....... 22.3
10.1901-02 ....... 22.4
The worst way to predict long term trends is to pick and choose data. This list doesn't prove or disprove anything. It's just arbitrary numbers. Long term trends show winters are warmer and shorter in Minnesota!
Delete4AM temprature 2 degrees and will only climb from here, winter is on its way out. Spring will unofficially start Friday. Sad winter for sure.
ReplyDeleteAnd good riddance to it. This weather is extremely painful. I'm getting bloody noses and chapped hands. Cold cold cold drive to work. No flippin idea why someone would ever miss it.
DeleteGoodbye winter, see you in hell!
You’ll remember the “polar vortex” winter of 2013-2014:
ReplyDeleteJust 3 years ago, and you people have no memories.
The WMI for the winter of 2013-14 in Twin Cities was 207 points, or in the high end of the “severe winter” category. This was the 9th most severe winter on record based on WMI points. The lowest WMI score was the winter of 2011-2012 with 16 points. The most severe winter is 1916-1917 with 305 WMI points.
I also feel most people on here tend to forget that Minnesota does have real winters still, just not as common. Good point to bring up the 13-14 winter! That winter was not only very cold but also was associated with a fair few Alberta clippers. Which quickly added up to nearly 3 or more feet of snow on the ground by early March! With that being said I do think the majority of winters are getting warmer but you can't rule out a cold and snowy one.
ReplyDeleteYeah, they also forgot the 2012/2013 winter in which we GOT SNOW IN MAY.
ReplyDeleteMost people on here only remember the last snowstorm though. If we got a foot one day, and an inch the next, they'd complain about a bust.
The problem is not Minnesota in general but the Twin Cities.
ReplyDeleteDuluth has 14 inches of snow on the ground (50 inches more or less fell so far) so that's normal.
Rochester has about 7 inches on the ground with about 32-33 inches total snowfall also about average.
The Twin Cities has been caught in 'no-man's land' for a few winters now.
I believe that the warming winters (only a fool would deny that) are enhancing a phenomenon which always happened in the past but that is making things much worse for Twin Cities snow lovers: the persistence of a split flow between the polar and southern jet streams. So big storms either bypass to the south (Rochester) or to the north (Duluth).
When the track is right the phasing still either does not happen with the southern stream dominating and bringing too much warm air, or it happens too much to our east (we get just the cold after the moisture is out).
Unless this pattern changes and phasing is reinstated early enough in a storm cycle the Twin Cities will be in a snow drought.
If you look at the snow-cover map for MN you'll see a doughnut about the metro area.
If it were just warmth then you'd expect south of here to be even less snowy, but has not been the case.
So I believe it is the phasing of the jet streams.
Beautifully said, well done. Totally agree!!
DeleteThere's a donut around the metro area because it's a city. Urban heat island. Roads and parking lots get plowed. Nothing to do with the jet stream.
DeletePoor response, what does plowing have to do with snow on the ground, so it's not on roads. Duluth and Rochester have more snow that's a fact!
DeleteYour thinking is right in line with the folks who believe global warming is a myth because it snowed in their backyards yesterday.
DeleteThe lack of snow in the Twin Cities, when there's some snow outside the metro, has nothing to do with the jet stream. The jet stream is not a localized phenomenon. It affects huge swaths, not just one city.
Roads and parking lots get plowed, exposing bare pavement. There are more buildings that reflect sunlight to the ground. All this stuff absorbs and reflects heat a lot more efficiently than snow does. It acts as a heat bank and helps to melt any adjacent snow.
Is this horrible winter over??? Bill can we get a new thread started with the prospect of another lengthy Thaw upon us and no snow in sight.
ReplyDeleteBye, bye winter!! Oh, wait a minute, it never arrived...AGAIN!! Get used to Indianapolis/Kansas City winters.
ReplyDeleteLooks like this site will be quiet for sometime now, most likely till late December or early January 2018.
ReplyDeleteHave a great summer everyone!
I like your optimism that winter will appear in late December 2017 or so. The early indications are that El Nino will return for next winter. That will make 4 consecutive non-winters here in the Twin Cities. Therefore, have a good year and a half everybody. Hopefully we'll reconvene for a REAL winter...finally...in December 2018. In the meanwhile sunny skies and 50 plus degree temperatures will be the norm, not the exception, this week through next weekend. You know, typical February weather....for Raleigh, NC!
DeleteI hope not, I hate how this site is so quiet in the summer. Granted, we've hardly had any semblance of a severe weather season the last few years, but hopefully some people stick around!
Delete@Neil
DeleteI'll be here. I love summer weather! I'd say last summer was better, with that big one we had that knocked out power for a couple days. My six-year-old daughter has begun taking an interest in weather and prediction.
I also love the delicious taste of snow-lover tears.
I also love the delicious taste severe weather lover tears!
DeleteI love Raleigh. Bring it!!!
ReplyDeleteDon't be too optimistic.
ReplyDeleteI don't think a real winter will ever happen again.
Trends are clear. La Nina, El Nino don't mean anything anymore.
Someone needs to come up with some new indices of teleconnections or similar. Climate patterns are shifting in a way that needs to be analyzed and possibly understood in a completely different way.
NWS/NOAA predicting 'below average' temperature because of La Nina was obviously wrong and an over-simplification.
It is clear that it didn't matter at all. Something else is mattering and needs to be understood.
As Novak said a few weeks ago: something is not right, and I think we need to understand what it is.
I've posted this here before, Minnesota weather back in 1878.
Deletehttp://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/wint77_78.html
Sure, something could be changing, can't argue with that. Our detailed weather data doesn't go back very far so I'm not ready to pronounce a permanent change since I'm not sure what normal is over thousands of years.
It was just a year ago that I heard California would be in a permanent drought, now they have so much water that dams are close to bursting. Weather is a strange and fascinating beast.
Dave, it's the trend. The trend. The trend matters.
DeleteStatistically it's not a trend, too short of a sample size. I approach it from a pure statistical look, 120 years or so of data isn't enough. That said, I could end up being wrong in the long run. Short term changes/trend, yes. Long term? Way too early to call.
DeleteAs an Econ professor in college once said, "In the short-term, prices will rise. In the long run, we're all dead."
DeleteI'm dusting off the golf clubs today, beginning to look like courses will start to open in FEBRUARY in MINNESOTA. Unreal...
ReplyDeleteAfter having been open until Mid-November.
DeleteThat MSP winters are trending warmer is a fact. Just by comparing the NWS daily averages (which are 10-year moving averages of the past 30 years, updated every 10 years) 1971-2000 vs 1981-2010 they are mostly and significantly higher.
ReplyDeleteThat winters are trending less snowy is a bit tricky for me to say for sure:
10 years MSP average snowfall:
29/30 - 39/40 : 39.2
39/40 - 49/50 : 37.6
49/50 - 59/60 : 42.7
59/60 - 69/70 : 52.2
69/70 - 79/80 : 54.7
79/80 - 89/90 : 59.7 (but mostly due to the record setting 83-84)
89/90 - 99/00 : 52.6
99/00 - 09/10 : 47.9
09/10 - 15/16 : 52.5
As you can see the trend is mixed. The 70s and 80s were snowier than now but again it was less snowy before that.
Looking at the numbers it seems (as many have mentioned a few times) that MSP is just not as snowy as people think it is, and certainly not as snowy as you'd expect given the avg temperatures.
Thanks for the numbers, definitely interesting to look at. Also it's probably worth noting that the 52.5 this decade is propped up at least some by the 2010-2011 season (domebuster, presidents day storm).
DeleteMSP definitely isn't as snowy as some seem to think. I believe I've seen before that MSP only averages one 12"+ storm every two years.
Those snowfall averages by decade mirror the temperature averages by decade.
ReplyDeleteThe planet is warming, our winters are becoming more mild. But also, the winters of the 70s and 80s were harsher than average, and certainly NOT the norm.
So when people talk about winters of yore and how we're getting soft, I can only assume they're thinking of those two decades (Huttner and Douglas certainly are), and people either forget or don't know that winters used to be milder.
Also, the average for 09/10 - 15/16 is skewed because of the massive snowfall in 2010/2011.
Median snowfall might be more helpful.
Breaking, Feb 22, massive snow storm. Novak, video!
ReplyDeleteLOL!! Everybody loves a comedian! Now let everybody know that you will be in town all week...and remind folks to tip their waitresses!
DeleteGive it a few days when the NWS puts out a "snow likely" forecast then you know the snow will occur somewhere else other then MSP!
DeleteGFS full on board with maor blizzard 2-23/24th. Expect Novak videos soon. Twin Cities in the bullseye.
DeleteYou guys act like people bank on storms a week out and then are flabbergasted when it doesn't pan out. It's just something to watch, the naysayers are the only ones every "hyping" stuff lately around here.
DeleteI am curious as to how this unofficial El Nino compares to last season's official Super El Nino, temperature-wise. There is no doubt that February will go down as a blast furnace with temperatures I am guessing at least 7 degrees above normal for the month. December was "only" 1.5 degrees above normal, and January 2017 was 5.3 degrees above normal. Didn't the NWS predict a colder than average winter for us this season? lol Talk about earning a grade of a solid F-!! However, it seems that they never miss the mark when they predict above average temperatures.
ReplyDeleteGiven that El Nino is a global phenomenon, it might be more instructive to look at the globe's temperatures. But we don't have El Nino right now.
DeleteStill, January 2017 was the third warmest January of all time
http://climate.nasa.gov/news/2550/january-2017-was-third-warmest-january-on-record/
With the string of 50's/60's predicted for at least the next week, I wouldn't be surprised if February's monthly temperatures come out close to 10 degrees above average.
DeleteDecember 2015: 10.5 degrees above normal; January 2016: 2.0 degrees above normal; February 2016: 4.0 degrees above normal.
ReplyDeleteIf anybody wants to have some fun looking out into fantasy land, go check out the GFS snowfall maps for next weekend. :)
ReplyDeleteIndeed. Personally I just like the idea of HAVING something to look at even if it likely won't happen. At least now there is something to do weather wise. Haha.
DeleteNeil I've been on top of this for two days, read above. Blizzard Feb 24. Calling it now. Novack, video. Let's go!
DeleteGFS has already backed off the insane amounts from yesterday.
ReplyDeleteThat is what every model ever does... That is why it is referred to as fantasyland.
DeleteThe most recent GFS run has the ridiculous amounts again for the metro...2+'
ReplyDeleteCurrent Water Vapor imagery shows a very strong omega block that has set up with deep troughs over the east and west coast and a very strong upper ridge over the middle of the country. When you get this strong of a omega block its very hard to move the pattern to the east, but it will slowly do so. While it does, it is likely that a storm will develop along the eastern edge of the leading west coast trough as it moves from west to east. It's almost impossible that the storm track will be suppressed to the south far enough that Minnesota doesn't get affected. As the storm develops it will ingest a great deal of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and could see a surface low that is sub 990mb as it approaches the upper midwest. Because of the blocking pattern, this low pressure system is likely to cut up into the western Great Lakes and travel a favorable path for winter storm warnings for Minnesota. The question remains where will the heaviest snows be and will it affect the Metro.
ReplyDeleteThank you for you great info. Bring on the snow please.
DeleteWell considering how the metro usually misses out on the major snowstorms this one will go either north or south and leave the metro on the low-end fringes(like the 1-3"'s), what's that saying don't buck the trends!
DeleteThank you for bringing educated talk to this board, Randy. It seems to be very sparse these days.
DeleteSincerely,
Frustrated blog follower
Looks like euro just bought into gfs's solution. Well here we go..
ReplyDeleteLast two GFS runs are showing a northern movement in the storm track. I'm sure there will be wild fluctuations in the track in the coming days
ReplyDeleteWhich if it continues, dare I say it....a metro miss!
DeleteEnjoy the record heat, screw tracking the thaw we may end up with a week long consecutive record streak, in February no less!
As usual as we get closer to it profiles will become warmer and warmer. it will be just rain for the metro. We watched this movies already.
DeleteNothing different, nothing to report.
If you like snow, move somewhere where it 'really' snows.
Think its up to last 4 now.
DeleteI'm screen-shotting and saving all of these ridiculously hyping articles that are out there right now. Even the NWS of all places. It's just amazing that people never learn. The over-hyping, click-bait inducing, ratings-seeking hysteria never fails to impress.
ReplyDeleteGuess the NWS is on board....
ReplyDeleteThe GFS and ECMWF have quite the
snowstorm for the region for Friday and Saturday. It`s a
phenomenal event with both predicting QPF values from 1 to 2
inches across our entire area. A simple 10 to 1 snow ratio tells
you how much snow could fall. A trend noted with this storm is
that is does not involve phasing as several other of our failed
snow events did. This one is simply a wave now west of the
Aleutians Islands, reaching the west coast by mid week and then
pushing eastward from there. Needless to say 100 pops are already
in the forecast for Friday from FB.
New thread. Be on your best behavior kids.
ReplyDelete