Thursday, January 25, 2018
Big Storm in the Rear Mirror, What's Ahead?
After the Twin Cities received its biggest snowfall in seven years in a storm that seemed to have slightly exceeded expectations, what's left to look forward to? Perhaps we focus on Super Bowl weather and the focus of the national media on the city's arctic reputation.
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Some strong signals pointing towards Arctic air around or just after the Super Bowl. I'm guessing the always fantastic "Polar Vortex" will mentioned.
ReplyDeleteAw, it isn't going to be THAT cold, but I bet you're right, CWY2190. It might seem like there are mini-polar vortexes swirling around for our visitors. The colder the better so we can 'show off' our 'bold north' survivor skills. That storm this week was fun. I'm hoping for more before spring.
ReplyDelete'Fun' is exactly the word I'd use to describe Monday's storm. We just don't get many storms like that, and even though my commute home was 5 times longer than normal, it was an exciting adventure.
DeleteSince the storm, I feel like a Minnesotan again. So weird, the identity crisis when Winter isn't Winter anymore.
I agree, Joel. It looks like the Minneapolis I remember as a kid with all the snow. I've been marveling at it and enjoying it. Today's March-like temps are giving me spring fever, but I hope we get a bunch more snow before March really comes. I totally hear you!
DeleteI don't know how old you are, but for me, I think this is because the Winters during my childhood years in the early and mid-80s were very snowy and cold, so that's what Winter is to me.
DeleteOh, to have a string of Winters like 81-85!
Born in '52~ Minneapolis. The winter of '81-'82 was 'something else.' On another page of this site someone posted a link to all the snowfall totals for the past many decades, and it was interesting to see that not 'all of them had big amounts of snow'... but it was still interesting to look for trends.
DeleteNWS has graded their forecast and gave themselves a great grade. Outside of the onset time, they feel they nailed this forecast.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.weather.gov/mpx/22Jan2018grade
I still think they're essentially grading the models. I don't think they'd forecast any differently given the same set of pre-storm model info.
DeleteFrom this afternoon's NWS discussion.....a possible Super Bowl weekend snowstorm:
ReplyDeleteAs with previous discussions, the Arctic air mass that has
retreated northward over the past week or two, will re-establish
itself by late next week, and into the following weekend.
Temperatures will likely be 10 to 20 degrees below normal which
translates into highs in the single digits and teens, and lows
below zero. Combine these temperatures with gusty winds, wind
chill values could easily drop into the teens to 20s below zero
range. In addition to the cold, the possibility of a snow storm
could occur Superbowl weekend. Both the EC/GFS develop some type
of surface boundary moving across the Plains Superbowl weekend,
the differences relate to the upper level flow which backs on the
EC vs. the GFS. This backing will allow for more energy to move
northward and develop a storm system over the Northern Plains. It
is too early to tell but something to keep an eye on for the upcoming big game.
Any thoughts on this?
Some decent reading on possible Super Bowl weather. https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2018-01-22-super-bowl-lii-minneapolis-forecast
ReplyDeleteMN DNR Daily Climate Data link. Look up January 2017 and see how quickly we lost most of our snowcover...again...in just a few days. That 47 degrees the other day did a real number on the snow (11 inches at the airport to 4 inches).
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/historical/acis_stn_data_table.html?sid=mspthr&sname=Minneapolis/St%20Paul%20Threaded%20Reoord&sdate=2010-01-01&edate=por
47 and pretty much a full sunny day will do it. I'm amazed that we have had snowcover for 54 consecutive days.
DeleteI too am surprised that we have had snowcover for 54 consecutive days. That is a testament to how cold it’s been, on average. Unfortunately, the low snow totals combined with the three January thaws have wreaked havoc on any attempt at building an appreciable snowpack. Hopefully February and at least the first half of March will bring us some good consistent snow and cold.
DeleteOnly two more weeks until the parks in Mpls stop caring for the ice rinks because the sun angle is too high.
ReplyDeleteSnowfall Potential?
ReplyDeleteThis cold weather pattern will also bring some chances for snow to the Minneapolis/St. Paul metro, although moisture will generally be limited.
Snow Chance #1: A brief period of light snowfall is possible Tuesday night.
Snow Chance #2: Next weekend, energy aloft sweeping across the Plains and upper Midwest could squeeze out some snowfall in the Twin Cities. Details on this scenario, however, remain uncertain.
Jonathan Yuhas on our 2 snow chances during Super Bowl week....looks like we may freshen things up for our out of town visitors:
ReplyDeleteWednesday may bring a challenging rush hour in the morning with a few inches of snow falling then becoming partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon with cold gusty winds. Highs Wednesday in the low 30s at noon falling into the upper teens by 6 p.m. Low temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday will be near -1 below.
Cloudy Saturday with periods of light snow in the afternoon and evening producing 1” to 3” of accumulation. Highs in the mid teens and lows near 4 degrees.
Cloudy Super Bowl Sunday morning with light snow or flurries then partly cloudy in the afternoon with cold gusty winds and highs near 8 above and lows near 8 below.
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sn10_acc&rh=2018012818&fh=192&r=conus&dpdt=
ReplyDeleteCanadian model delivering decent storm next weekend?
I need some more snow talk. Just anything. Looking ahead....what do people see? Bring it!!
ReplyDeleteLooks like we are getting a nice little coating this morning in the metro. Twelve accidents already on the freeway system and it's just 4 a.m. Can't wait for the morning rush as our visitors continue arriving. And as temps dip tonight and onward with dangerous wind chills, "bring it" before the big game along with more snow chances this weekend?
ReplyDeleteT5RX That can best be absorbed from human body if along with the nutrient comes up with an epicenter coating to prevent leakages from degrading. That reminiscent of over a liter of red wine with the largest content. http://www.strongtesterone.com/t5rx/
ReplyDeleteWhile most of you were sleeping a healthy band of snow pushed thru the metro from between 1 and 4am....it was snowing hard for awhile...I'm sure 1-3" round the area will be common when all we heard leading up to it was a dusting to 1/2"(except if you read what I sent the other day from Jonathan Yuhas... nailed it). I measured 1.5" at 5am in St. Louis Park.
ReplyDeleteAlso PWL you will be happy...keep dancing because NWS is talking about 3 more snow chances over the next 5 days....tonight,Fri/Sat and Monday.
It was a nice surprise this morning to see the forecasted dusting to 1/2 inch actually materialize into almost 2 inches of snow. It was also a nice surprise last week when the heavy snow band moved farther north and dropped several more inches than the 2-3 inches that were forecasted for those of us north of downtown Minneapolis. Fingers crossed and hopeful for more snowy surprises!
ReplyDelete20.2" of snow at MSP in January. Tied for 12th snowiest January on record.
ReplyDeleteLet's keep it going!
I read here on this blog that it never snows here, how odd a stat.
Deleteand the metro never gets hit nor will it ever!
DeleteSpeaking of snowy Januarys, most people know about the famous January of 1982, but does anyone else remember 1999 (3rd snowiest January with 33.1")? It seems every clipper that came through dropped 4-6 inches. It was crazy.
ReplyDeleteBring all of it!! These little guys add up!
ReplyDeleteChannel 5 is reporting 1-2 inches of fluffy stuff on its way this evening and another chance for 2-4 this weekend!! And the cold temps to boot. Yes, PWL it does add up. Real winter.
ReplyDeleteSnowing pretty heavily again currently in Golden Valley....haven't measured yet but it looks like a good inch just in the last hour. Keep dancing PWL!
ReplyDeleteThat may have pushed January to sole position 12th snowiest Januarys ever.
ReplyDelete.9 in Golden Valley with that evening burst(I'll call it an inch)
ReplyDeleteI can wait for the 40's to return then up and up we go!
ReplyDeleteThe latest 12Z pissant NAM is increasing in intensity ever so slightly for the Saturday system now having 2-4" right thru the metro. And we all know how well the increasing NAM performed with our last significant snow system, just saying!
ReplyDeleteThis from the 5:54pm aviation NWS update....sounds like tomorrow has the potential to be worse(or better depending if you like snow) then Saturday, interesting:
ReplyDeleteOnly concern this period is whether or not we see snow Friday
afternoon as strong warm advection develops, along with potential
for the development of MVFR cigs with this warm advection. The
degree of forcing we see in terms of isentropic lift and
frontogenesis is pretty impressive and coincides with a deep
dendritic growth zone. Result, is this could be a rather healthy 2
or 3 hour burst of snow during the afternoon/evening. Only
limiting factor is the moisture depth isn`t the greatest, that
arrives Saturday. For now, put in a 3sm -sn mention at MKT/RWF and
Twin Cities TAFs as this is where the NAM is showing the
strongest forcing going. There is potential that conditions could
be considerably worse than this if the snow materializes.
KMSP...If we see snow Friday, it will come during the main evening
push. Worst case scenario with this wave is 2" of snow in about a
3 hour period. Given timing though, that could really slow down
volume numbers for MSP as traffic for the Super Bowl starts really
ramping up. Something to keep a close eye on
Kind of fun listening to my little noaa radio this morning. The metallic voice was telling me exactly how to layer, including the type of clothing, fabric, etc. for wind chill advisories. It explained what frostbite looks like in great detail. I can tell we've got a Super Bowl crowd in town!!!!! Off I go to get ready to volunteer today downtown. Bold North/Cold North/Snow North. Bring it.
ReplyDeleteI would say New England has much worse weather than we could ever dream of here. Philadelphia has just as bad weather also. I think they can handle it. It's not like we have a majority of fans from warm weather cities.
ReplyDeletewe the skyway volunteers watched a number of people blanche yesterday when we explained that Super Bowl Live was outside and that Nicollet Mall is not an indoor mall! :+) Today should be good; tomorrow MN Chill.
DeleteWell today was a swing and a miss on the snow...let's see how we do with tomorrow's
ReplyDeleteI'm impressed with the snowy weather pattern that has evolved. 20.4" officially in JAN & now we will start the first 1/2 of FEB with plenty of snow. I won't be surprised if MSP Int'l were to end up with above average snowfall for the snow season even though we started out so slow.
ReplyDeleteBy looking at the radar, it appears that it’s snowing hard over most of the metro right now. Can anyone confirm that? am in the south metro and it’s snowing lightly. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteI would say moderate snow in Woodbury. It has heavier a half hour ago.
ReplyDeleteA nice couple inches of snow right in time for the super bowl how nice! Also not on board yet, but Friday next week is looking promising for significant snow somewhere in Minnesota.
ReplyDeleteAgain, these "little guys" add up! And, with the hope of something bigger on the horizon, this is shaping up to be quite a winter!! Bring it!!
ReplyDeleteI measured 3" just now in Golden Valley....nice little event.....also there's something peaceful about shoveling at night, I love it. Bring more of it please, it's nice to have the consistent snowcover and snow depth to do whatever winter activities you choose on the weekends. Tomorrow it's tubing with the kids!
ReplyDeleteThree inches here in Plymouth from yesterday's snowfall. I'm hoping for more this week. Meanwhile, it's a beautiful, cold and sunny February Sunday morning! Since my Vikes didn't make it to the big game, I'm looking forward to my Eagles bringing home the trophy later today! Fingers crossed! P.S. I am a transplant from the Philly area to MN. I love the Vikes and the Eagles!
ReplyDeleteI'm a transplant from NY(and I continue to wait for the Jets to figure it and make a Super Bowl, hopefully before I pass away). Anyhow I hate the Patriots so FLY EAGLES FLY!
DeleteThanks for your support, bigdaddy!!
DeleteIf your a snowlover this NWS discussion has to be the best discussion you've read in awhile with 3 opportunities for snowfall over the next 5 days:
ReplyDeleteIt looks like a cold and active long term period with a few
chances of snow.
Still plenty of questions with how far north the clipper
system will bring snow Monday. Most models have shifted north,
bringing light snow as far north as Willmar, the Twin Cities, and
Eau Claire. NAM and Canadian are perhaps too far north in
bringing an inch to those locations, but had to expand at least
mentionable PoPs northward to account for the increasing
potential. The heaviest accumulations still look to fall across
northern Iowa and southwestern MN, with maybe 2 or 3 inches as far
north as I-90 across south central MN.
It is a quick system and should be out of here by Monday night.
High pressure will take its place by early Tuesday morning with
clear skies, light winds, and fresh snowpack across much of the
area. Temperatures were lowered several degrees, and in some cases
are colder than guidance, but they may not be cold enough given
the ideal conditions for radiational cooling.
The high will shift southeast Tuesday while a potent trough
approaches for Tuesday night. A moist isothermal DGZ temperature
profile from the surface to 10kft and an arctic front pushing
through will likely generate snow showers/squalls Tuesday night
and early Wednesday morning across much of the CWA. Snow ratios
will be high, and model QPF is pretty consistent between
0.03-0.06". Could see a quick inch over the region as this wave
passes through. Introduced likely PoPs for this period.
Attention then turns to the system for late week. There remains
timing differences amongst the models and their ensembles. The
ECMWF has shifted from the fast Canadian (bringing snow in as
early as late Wednesday night) to about half way to the 00Z GFS
and seems like a good compromise (snow arriving late Thursday
afternoon and continuing into early Friday). A quick look at the
06Z GFS is considerably slower still, not bringing snow in now
until late Thursday night! Regardless of model, Thursday night
seems like the most likely period for snow so left the categorical
PoPs alone for now. Depending how the eastern Canadian trough and
west coast ridge interact and thus how the system develops, this
could be a long duration snow event capable of significant
accumulations across the Dakotas, the southern half of Minnesota,
and Wisconsin.
That sounds great! I hope it comes to fruition!!
DeleteGreat football game, the halftime show will go down as one of the best bottom 5 of all time. As for the weather system at the end of the week,best chance for winter storm criteria should be south of the metro being that the storm originates out of the nw flow.
DeleteTotally disagree Randy!. That was a very nice tribute to Prince and the selfies in the stands was a nice touch(especially to those fans who were involved, that will be a memory of a lifetime).
DeleteSnow chances for this weekend appear to be dwindling by the day. Has anybody heard differently?
ReplyDeleteNeed. Video. Soon.
ReplyDeleteI've checked with Novak and we may do a video on Friday. Btw, you're on the old thread here.
Delete