I need to revise my comment: 1) Oh happy day. Everyone will be glad you/the blog are back for this winter season. 2) If I am to believe the location of squirrel nests over noaa predictions of a 'mild winter' I would say the squirrels have it. Their nests are super high, most of them, and it is really, really cold out (below normal). 3) I'm no good at predicting inches of snow, so I will leave that to the others who grace this blog. Here is to a fun winter, banter, videos, and all. Thank you for your blog!
Well welcome back Bill and all other snowlovers! Nice and pretty 1-2” around the metro this morning. Good thing I just work miles from home and I take back roads home...no cursing at the traffic.
This below average stretch of weather (5-6 weeks now?) will surely lead to a long stretch that's above average, right? I love snow, but the below average temps wear me out.
well im guessing the euro is putting down stupid number or something from the way im reading his message?? a little more in depth i guess would be helpful.
You can't say 'as always' after last year's Friday the 13th weekend snow event. However, I agree that this forecast was a bust. In St. Louis Park there is just a dusting. One official report on CoCoRaHS shows a half inch in Lakeville, and just .1 in Richfield.
My SLP forecast was 1 to 3 inches, so to me a dusting is way off, but I won't argue. I don't sit here and call everything a bust, but per Novak's updated maps and the NWS forecast, I was expecting way more than a dusting and made a fool of myself warning my kids/grandkids to get ready for it in the metro areas where we live. I even saw Bloomington w/a total of 2-4 inches predicted at one point, and they also had a dusting. But bring it. I love snow and wish it HAD snowed where I live. "Maybe next time."
**UPDATE** From 11/12 post: BORING continues after Thanksgiving as well, spotty rain scattered snow showers all Mother Nature can dish up for us, but points south could see heath snowfalls. For you snowlovers take November as a harbinger of things to come this winter you will be very disappointed in the snow department. November has seen plenty of cold days to support snow but vet little snow to speak of, some warmer spells mixed in here and there....that will be your winter in a nutshell here in MSP land, get use to weeks like this for the next few months. Cold with no snow then warmer then rain/liquid with “some” snow on backside then cold again! Enjoy!
So, even though travelers shouldn’t have trouble getting to their destinations prior to Thanksgiving, getting home might be a different story. A fairly strong wave in the jet stream is expected to slide into the West on Thanksgiving Day, which will help force mild air in our direction, but it’ll also start to increase the moisture available for the Upper Midwest on Friday. Scattered rain showers should move into Minnesota during the day on Friday, with cold enough air mixing in by Friday night to create a wintry mix around here. That should continue into Saturday, with a chance for measurable snow moving in by Sunday afternoon and evening. If you are going to be traveling over the Holiday, please check the latest forecast as we go through the week Translation: Flurries with a candy coating after it rains then snow south of MSP.
I don't consider the snow system last week a bust; just a slight miss for the metro. Of course, that is where most of the public lives, so it really looks like a bust.
Quite frankly, model guidance (especially the NAM) performed pretty well with that storm. Much of the southern 1/3 of MN received a 2"-4"+ of snow. The Euro showed nothing for southern MN & I consider that a flawed guidance.
Regarding the system after Thanksgiving. It has been been modeled in some of the guidance for the last few days, some models have shown it than lost it all together, while some have not shown it at all. Now most of the guidance is starting to show it, but the solutions are hundreds of miles apart. With the North American Oscillation (NAO) progged to go strongly negative it doesn't seem likely that any low pressure system that forms on the lee side of the Rockies will escape out to sea in the Mid Atlantic. Therefore its likely to cut up into the Upper Mississippi Valley or the Central Great Lakes area. Time will tell as they say. But finally something to follow.
Another very big storm looks like it will mostly miss us on Sunday, but it will be close enough for most of us to see some small accumulations of an inch or less by Sunday night. -Ken Barlow 11/20
No drama this week, just flurries today and light rain Friday PM; maybe ending as a light mix Saturday. A big storm early next week slides south/east of Minnesota. -Paul Douglas 11/20
@Joel of course we do, their the experts who follow this stuff and get paid big bucks to inform us. Also mark down NWS calling for late weekend storm “to follow a southern solution”, so that makes Paul and Ken and NWS. Enjoy the boring! I might add it’s going to be a challenge to get a White Christmas, I might as well start that conversation since it will be the next topic of debate.
Follow along Joel, you got your anonymous mixed up, I’m the boring anonymous. Btw, Ken/Paul/NWS and co. all still saying south with the Sunday system. Boring continues.......
Saturday looks quiet weather-wise, but far southern Minnesota could see some snow on Sunday.
It looks like Iowa, far southern Wisconsin and parts of northern Illinois will see the heaviest snow Sunday and Sunday night, but check later forecasts for updates.
At this point I’d say that the Twin Cities metro area could see some snow showers on Sunday. -Paul Huttner MPR blogpost 11/20
Past this weekend, there remains a strong signal of a powerful jet aiming toward the west coast. With a large storm system expected to form in the Gulf of Alaska, the on-slot of Pacific storm systems look reasonable through the extended period. For the Upper Midwest, our weather will likely be controlled by the strength of the negatively supported NAO. Although teleconnections support a more positive PNA next week, the combination of the two interaction leads to a colder pattern. A positive PNA acts to shift Canadian air masses south over the central U.S. This +PNA in conjunction with a negative NAO also supports a semi-persistent Great Lakes/Hudson Bay upper low. This pattern also support a more drier scenario vs. a wetter due to the drier Canadian air masses. Translation: COLD AND BORING, pretty much sums up November, can anyone say El Niño!
This has nothing to do with El niño... It is all the teleconnections tanking and blocking causing Canadian HP to block this pattern south of climatology.
Really!?!? That is exactly the setup of El Niño where the subtropical jet is stronger which drives systems west to east rather then cutting up into the Great Lakes, a typical El Niño tends to be dry here with much higher precipitation in the central and southern states, that’s what your seeing this November. Will it change?, who knows but if your a snow lover it’s going to be drips and drabs of snow and boring long periods.
Pulled from this evening’s AFD at NWS: Looking ahead into the following weekend, southerly flow will bring widespread rain across the region as another system develops over the central CONUS.
This is for the following weekend, we’re into December by then, what’s this? rain now, cold enough for snow after today then cold air exhausted more rain! Hey at least it’s not boring!
My first post this winter snow season. Happy to be back and bringin it!!! I am very excited about snow chances later this coming week. Cold weather in place, southwest flow developing. Just give me that buckling jet stream and I will bring you a bring it!! Let’s go!!
@Plymouth, it’s rain dude your bringing the rain, or at best a mix. Too warm. Please go read the AFD from NWS. No need for any unnecessary excitement. Sad snow season continues, either it’s too cold and snow to the south OR too warm with rain. Going to be a disappointing snow season, doesn’t it seem it’s trending that way already?
I think you may be right. I usually disagree with him but this year Paul Huttner may be right that consistent snow cover will be difficult to achieve. I see this winter as a few days in mid 20s (dry of course) followed by ice or mix storms in the mid 30s. A couple of clippers here and there dropping an inch, rapidly melting within a couple of days. Maybe one serious snowstorm (6+) mid january, followed by 2-3 days below zero and then back to mid30s for february and march. El Nino adding up to the general trend of warming winters is a death penalty for the Twin Cities winter (which by the way is inmy opinion the biggest scam in the history of meteorology.)
While wet snow shuts down Chicago today, a cold north wind blows across Minnesota. The first half of this week will feel more like January, with a coating of flakes late Thursday. By the time real moisture returns next weekend the atmosphere should be mild enough for a rainy mix. What a waste of cold air. So far winter is "all hat and no cattle". -Paul Douglas 11/25
Couldn’t of said it better then myself, what a waste of cold air, what a lousy November!
I've seen a lot of people list 2002-03 as an analog year. That year we didn't see a decent storm until Groundhog Day, and then March was a blow torch. Hope for the same this year!
Surprise surprise NOT, nobody should be surprised by this: The pattern becomes more active across the country again for late week into the weekend. There is considerable spread with the evolution of the pattern, but one trend of late has been to suppress a larger cyclone well to the south of the area again Saturday and Sunday. Given the split flow pattern and a strong, zonal subtropical jet across the southern U.S., this isn`t a surprising development. It still bears watching, but unless the subtropical jet buckles northward some in the eastern U.S., it is unlikely to bring much of an impact here.
The very tame,very little snow of November continues on, boring is an understatement, at least you have your flurries today and tomorrow and maybe an whole inch on Thursday. I’m issuing an BCW(Brown Christmas Watch) today, in effect for the entire metro area for the next 29 days, expiring 12/25 at 6am!
Hey guys and gals. Don't be down to much on this weekends system yet. I'm looking at the teleconnections and it seems as the Arctic Oscillation will quickly go from strongly negative to very near neutral. Meaning that cold air intrusion may not drive this system as far south as the last major storm. I'm not ruling out a major hit for the southern metro yet.
If you go by what the ECMWF has been advertising the last few days then southern Minnesota should be paying attention I would think. Does anyone know how it performed with the last storm?
Don't mind the anonymous trolls. Anyway, the Euro was probably the "best" out of the global models on the last system, if I recall correctly. This setup is quite complex and models seem to be struggling a bit. Definitely something to keep an eye on though, especially south of the metro!
Yup don’t listen to the anonymous trolls because we don’t know how about the expert trolls(this from Dave Dahl): The good news from this type of pattern is the milder temperatures that develop in between the rounds of precipitation. We should see our highs climb back above freezing later this week, which means any snow that does fall shouldn't last very long. By the weekend, another wave in the jet stream is expected to slide across the center of the country, which should put Minnesota on the north side of precipitation that falls. Even though it might start out as a wintry mix on Friday with temps in the 30s, it should change over to mainly snow by Saturday night and Sunday. It probably won’t be a lot of snow, but it’ll more than likely become a nuisance again as we head through the weekend.
Will you look at that, he uses the same wording I did, NUISANCE! Carry on....
I find it difficult to understand why some people think that people live exclusively in the Twin Cities and that anyone outside of that is irrelevant. Silly thought really. To answer your question, the Euro has been pretty solid so far this season. Latest runs showing Rochester area and a bit north and south having some good snow. Will have to wait and see if it holds!
This is going to be another scary system to 4cast with BUST potential high due to the sharp snow total gradient on the north side of the snow band. This gradient should set-up somewhere near or on the MSP metro. Here we go again.
The latest GFS model is now in line with the Euro model. Looks like the system won't be moving as fast and will move further north west. Good news for snow lovers in the MSP area! :D
Ok so we got 2” instead of the 1” I said a few days ago, be happy if you got the 2” because this next system on Saturday promises a metro bust, maybe another 1”, that EURO dropping further and further south, GFS takes the cake on this one they were consistently south for awhile. What does this all mean in the big picture, like I said awhile back “drips and drabs” of snow, overall boring. I’m sure some of you already noticed the extended dryness (aka boring)weather and of course dry cold after this weekend.
Virtually all models....CMC/NAM/GFS give the metro core 2-5”, the lone outliner right now is EURO which gives 1”, pretty crazy when the EURO just yesterday was the model that showed the most for MSP. Oh well that’s weather I suppose, I can see a low-end advisory for the core on this one, but nothing more, this is no April blizzard but any stretch of the imagination.
So the American models are both upping the ante for MSP land....the latest runs 06z GFS: 4-6 12z NAM: 6-8 Let’s see if these higher trends continue could be warning level snows in the core!
The closer we are getting to the storm the slower the system seems to be moving, and its also staying at a stronger intensity for quite a bit longer. I'm starting to think this storm may overachieve and surprise quite a few people by the end of it.
NOAA has posted a WWA advisory for the TC Metro starting at noon Saturday plus south/east and into western WI; winter storm warning SW MN. As PWL says: bring it!
Tom & Bill, can we expect a video after the 00z runs come down? I'd like to hear about the dynamics of the incoming storm. I'd also be interested in hearing a little about stacked lows and or negative tilt if you do decide on a video. Let it snow!
Novak noted earlier today that there was a high bust potential. This looks like another sharp gradient over the metro with almost nothing far north and 5 or 6” far south. Just a 50 mile change in the track could really mess up forecasts.
It's now snowing basically 'sideways' here in St. Louis Park... how about where you are, PWL? This wind is going to create some interesting formations on roofs and on the ground. That's the only chatter I've got at this point.
The radar was just showing a band of moderate snow moving into the southern burbs. The NWS said that this would be a full blown blizzard if the arctic air wasn't cut off from the system. I still hope we all get a few inches to add to what we picked up the other night. It's looking and feeling Christmas-y!
So got a question, we have this initial band of moderate to heavy snow coming in that drops a few inches, is that it? Radar returns has just spotty precipitation beyond the band all the way down to Des Moines, how is it we going to reach the 6-10” forecasted down by I-90?
I dont know how long this current band is supposed to last, but it started with a vengeance in Waconia around 2:30 and visibility is currently well under 1/2 mile. If this continues for awhile, we are severely under-advised without a Winter Storm Warning. If we get this band and then it’s over, we will end up with a nice couple of inches at least.
Per KARE11 Bloomington has already picked up a cool 3". But yeah, it's supposed to 'lighten up' now though another few inches could fall overnight. That was quite a snow burst this afternoon!
It will, give it a week. Early next week temps climb above freezing and near 40 by 12/12and if there’s precipitation it will be in the form of liquid. Won’t take much to get rid of these 4-5” in our yards. Two drip and drabs systems followed by 10 days of cold and dry. NWS said it best beign weather ahead. Brown Christmas is still on the table even though it’s white out now.
I think the worst part of this storm forecast-wise was when people were still calling for a "good 3 inches" to come over night even in the metro core (whenever that first band moved through). Not far from the airport, we got maybe a quarter inch after that first band of 2.5 inches or so came through.
For those like me who are interested in and/or who scoffed at my early, early post about 'where the squirrels build their nests'..... November was running below normal, and here is a little quote from kstp this morning: "Over the next several days, temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees below average, Yuhas said." So far, the squirrels are doing better at predicting temperatures than the noaa seasonal outlooks that had us at a warm fall/move into winter!!!!! P.S. It is pretty out there with the new snow.
@WeatherGeek, that’s great and all but who really cares about all this cold and below average temperatures if it isn’t going to be accompanied by decent snows. The current Oct/Nov/Dec snowfall is below average and we will be adding to that the next 10 days or so with each passing dry day!
You got that right, down right boring for this snowlover. Our snow deficit is -5.5 and counting this season with each dry and miserably boring day that passes
Paul Douglas had this to say on his blog last night:
The pattern isn't ripe for heavy snow anytime soon, although models are hinting at a more formidable potential for flakes 2 days before Christmas.
Maybe something way way out there! But wouldn’t it be par for the course after all these dry days and relative ease on the roads that Mother Nature will find a way to muck it up for holiday traveling, like they say Mother Nature will do what Mother Nature wants to do!
Will be touch and go on white Christmas this year, seeing a lot of thawing temps next 10 days and I’m already seeing blades of grass and open spots here and there, if it doesn’t snow next two weeks I give it a 50/50 shot of white or brown Christmas.
From Ken Barlow this morning: I don’t see any Arctic air invasions aiming toward Minnesota for the next 7-10 days. I also do not see any signs of any major snowstorms. That’s not to say we won’t see little bouts of snow once in a while, but no blockbuster storms are out there lurking and ready to pounce! The warmer air looks like it may actually stick around into Christmas Day and perhaps beyond.
Now we have an air quality alert until 6 p.m. Thursday in the metro. Is that usual in the 'winter'??? What a strange fall/transition into winter we are having.
��BROWN CHRISTMAS WARNING �� now in effect for the next 10 days for the metro area!
Huge patches of grass now showing up around the metro with at least 5 days of thawing weather in the week and nothing significant snow wise on the horizon.
NWS: Looking at the larger scale from the GEFS, we really are not seeing any signs of the large scale pattern possibly becoming more favorable for seeing more significant systems here until after Christmas, when the GEFS shows mean troughing setting up to our southwest. Till then, it`s a pretty benign weather pattern for us.
Translation: NWS officially calling for a brown Christmas!
Could it be, can we actually get a snowstorm this winter?, I have this to offer from our friends at the NWS this morning: Beyond this weekend, several storm systems will affect the west coast. Once these storms move across the Rockies and into the Plains, a potential storm system could affect a large area of the Upper Midwest. Timing and overall track will need to be watched. Let me add my two cents...I sure hope we get nailed with this, because with the kids off from school it’s hours and hours of free outside entertainment
Darkest week of the year and we've got highs in the upper 30s and mid 40s. Love it! Guy at the park had to stop flooding the ice rink. Also love it! Keep it coming!
I told the peeps at work today that a major storm system could impact us right after Christmas. They asked how confident, I said a 50/50 chance it would effect us, but it impossible at this point to tell if we would be on the cold side or warm side. It now looks as if the chance of effecting us is 6 out of 10. It appears that if it affects us here in the metro we would be on the cold side. At this time I don't feel comfortable with any more than a 6 in 10 chance because the trend is to have major winter storms pass us to the SE this year. I would not want to buck this trend until more evidence is in, so will continue with the 40% chance of it sliding south and east of the metro.
Bill, maybe we need a new thread for the .10" forecasted overnight tonight in the Metro?! :)
Actually there's "new thread potential" with the storm Randy's talking about. NWS phrased it as "The biggest weather story in some time could materialize just beyond the current forecast period."
Sorry to burst your bubble, but a new thread for a rainstorm? Jonathan Yuhas forecast for next week, notice cold arctic air lacking, above freezing temperatures, what you have is another metro non-snowstorm thus continuing with the non-winter theme El Niño theme.
WEDNESDAY……...36 / 34 Cloudy and windy with snow developing in the afternoon then freezing rain in the evening changing to all rain – thunder possible. Chance for snow, freezing rain and rain is 80%.
Sorry El nino, one meteorologist's forecast for 7 days out in a Minnesota winter does not burst my bubble. If he ends up being correct, mega-kudos to him.
In the meantime, I'm getting geared up to watch model runs, trends, discussions, and forecasts shift for the next 7 days and hope I get a piece of the action (snow). It's been a long time since we've had a storm to track in our neighborhood, so let's just enjoy the bubble while it lasts.
Like Tom mentioned in the video and like Jonathan Yuhas continues to forecast simply to warm for a snowstorm in the metro, go west and north if you want the white gold! Rain and thunder is likely bet here with minimal front and backside snows. El Niño winters aren’t they a bitch!
Bad news for metro snowlovers...BIG SNOWS JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST....Minneapolis metro area and points south atmosphere will be just too warm so mixing with rain and sleet will take away a big chuck of accumulation. High temperature on Thursday will be above freezing but places like St. Cloud and north of there could easily be 12+". Sorry MSP!
Don't worry WeatherGeek there is absolutely NOTHING backing this. It is too early to make such a rash statement especially when all trends point towards snow in and around MSP at this juncture.
IDK. I've gotta watch the video on FB, and Novak just posted a map that has the metro area in the 'anticipate problems' swath on his FB page. I'm holding out for snow, PWL.
Too early to make any kind of call on this. Until it hits land, we all know how much can change. But the speculation should be fun. Bill how about a new thread for this one?
For what it's worth this early in the game, all of today's 12z models I reviewed (GFS, FV3-GFS, CMC, GDPS, etc.)seem to be bullish on double digit snowfall totals for the metro. As a snow/winter lover, I hope they are right, but the storm is several days away and as we all know...anything can happen.
I agree with Not Paul Douglas that maybe a new thread for 'what's coming next' would be nice, plus the video that is on FB because if I recall, not everyone who visits and comments here is on FB. Thanks for the update, Schnee Meister.
What did the 0Z Euro show for MSP? I can’t seem to find the Euro model most of the time. I would love if it was shared out. Give me the pure gold numbers! Bring it!!!
Guys can we temper the hype and excitement somewhat, this is not a pure snow event, temps will be above freezing for a lot of the event, rain will be a factor, the NWS has included it in their point forecasts as well as their discussions, and I continue to point towards Jonathan Yuhas’s forecast over at KSTP(he is a meteorologist with experience and knows how to read and interpret weather models better then any of us). Big snows north and west of the metro as is the case most of the time, we will be left with slop. El Niño winters usually bring slop storms!
Aw, we can get excited if we wish to. Th/Fri I see just one period where NWS is predicting above freezing temps---otherwise Wed night, Th night and all day Friday look to be in the 20s--maybe cold enough for snow? Anyway, time will tell. And we can dance and get excited if we want. :+) If it ends up on the warm end like you say, so be it. I'll have to check out Yuhas and all the others who compete with him.
funny thing is that anon and el nino and tim jager are all the same person just different names...what ever happened to the new thread is bill not doing these anymore??
NWS point forecast now calling for rain/snow mix for most of event for the metro. The Euro is showing the low moving northeast through southern MN. The GFS is showing the low moving northeast through Iowa. I'm rooting for the GFS!!!
Storm hits the coast late Monday and then things will start to fall in place. I see Novak has a new video out tonight. GFS has warmer air over the metro and Euro has colder air as of now, so Euro is still predicting 16” of snow for the metro. Looks so far like the classic 100 miles either way, boom or bust. Will be fun starting tomorrow night when the models get it over land. Where is Bill?
GFS and NAM going with less snow more rain. Simply too warm no arctic air. You wanted me to reference models there you go, but it was mentioned 2 days ago big snows NORTH and WEST, still believe it.
There is still a very wierd disconnect with the euro gfs and gem. Gfs actually has a much further se track and is actually pretty dang strong. Yet it has a very weak precip field on its nw side and like 4-6 inch snows at best nw of us. euro tracks nearly overhead and has better snow shield then gfs and slighly better profiles. Just defies the laws there
It does look warmer side metro area now per NWS latest forecasts and all of you who called it warm. Yuck. I prefer snow to rain on snow or snow on top of rain. With the cold air pouring in afterwards.... please let it snow. The ice will be nasty. You all have a safe/happy holiday, too. At least Mother Nature and Old Man Winter will let people around here in MN get from Point A to Point B on Christmas Eve and day. ... or so it appears.
P.S. Maybe Bill/Novak are migrating this whole blog idea over to FB? Novak has made two videos, now, that haven't been shared here on this blog. Novak's FB page is always very active; the MinnesotaForecaster one is pretty quiet. Cheers as the holiday approaches for those who celebrate it..............
Victory for Jonathan Yuhas! Way too go JY! NWS going with RAIN on Thursday for metro, my comment on Dec 21 still stands, even with the ridicule afterwards
The 06z NAM gives the metro an(wait for it), a whole inch of snow. Snow haters rejoice! Snow lovers there’s always next year(good thing next year is only a week away so you won’t have to wait too long)
Unfortunately, in regard to the pending storm it's looking like the Grinch who stole the white day after Christmas. It appears the metro will be a mix mess instead of a white wonderland many of us are hoping for. Let's not lose the faith! Keep dancing PWL et al!!
The 12z NAM ups the ante to a(wait for it) whole 3 inches. What drama! What you think metro can we manage that in late December, 3” can be back breaking.
Yep, it's going to be cold enough for snow UNTIL the moisture arrives. Then it's going to warm up so it can rain and wash away what little snow we have. And then...wait for it...it's going to get nice and cold, but of course there will be no moisture around for snow. It's a very mid-Atlantic type scenario. If this is going to be our wimpy winter, please fast forward to spring!!
Novak was so much more optimistic during last night's video that the metro would get the snow. He was speaking a lot about the location of the jet streaks. I wake up this morning and there is nothing but talk about rain!! Beyond disappointing!! What is the Euro showing?
The Euro is showing the center of the storm tracking through southern MN, a bad track if we want snow in the metro. The GFS and FV3-GFS are also showing the storm tracking through southern MN. The tracks are too far north for snow in southern MN. Grrrr!
Sorry PWL If you mean south yes storm is traveling into southern MN which means more mix and rain, meaning much less snow, sorry I know you like the snow, so do I.
The 21z GFS is out. The news for snowlovers in the metro continues to get even worse. Rising temperatures Thursday night with a mix changing to rain and then rain and close to 40 degrees on Thursday. The only reference to snow for the metro is a wimpy 40% chance of a little snow on Friday from any moisture that happens to be left over. Talk about a Christmas gut punch!
Let's see, how many more model runs before the storm gets here? At this rate we will end up having torrential tropical downpours with temperatures in the 80's and high dew points. Welcome to another lame southern MN winter!
I say its still too early too know if the metro will see mostly rain though. Due to the metro being right over where the rain/snow line is means just a small shift south. (even 10 miles) Could make the difference. So for snow lovers keep your hopes up!
Storm is just starting to hit the west coast. Way too early to make a call on the track, could easily move 100 miles or more either way. Morning models should be the first real read on it. Remember we have had them move before. What is interesting is how close to Minneapolis the gradients have been lately. Will it be another heavy snow north, nothing south?
There will be other issues at play especially in areas with decent snow cover yet. Especially down around mankato owatonna Albert Lea where I live. Combine snow cover with 1-2 inches of rain and frozen ground. Then a flash freeze
You know what I find funny is all those posters who say “ the storm is still in the Pacific “ or “it’s still off shore” and my favorite “wait till it comes on shore so we get a better sampling of data”, as if that data is going to give what snowlovers want. So let’s appease these posters, someone already posted the NAM’s pathetic numbers well the 0z GFS ain’t much better with only 1-2” for the metro.
Watches are up and they do not include the metro, minimal front and backside snows with a lot of rain in between...let me see where did I hear that before, oh yeah the one that was correct from the beginning, another victory for Jonathan Yuhas
I know. I was going to ask if this was Mr. Yuhas in disguise or a relative or ?? Fascinating. Well, let's all go up to Alex and party in the snowstorm. Winters have definitely changed since my childhood.
I know the storm has yet to move through and things can change, but assuming things pan out as currently predicted, this last week or so has been such a crazy ride. I wondered when the storm was being hyped 8 (!!!) days out, is it because the weather pattern has been so docile? Are meteorologists bored? Or is it because the storm supposed to hit during a holiday week? I guess I understand that. But still. Eight days of posting model data? Eight days of speculation? I saw maps with 20+ inches for the metro being posted at that time. And even if it had a "buyer beware" sticker attached to it, you know people are going to still think, "Well, even if we get half of that!" It's such an experiment in human sociology, social media, and the current state of hype, click bait, and snow-mongering weather terrorism. Anyway, we'll see what happens here. I hope for you snow lovers something drastically changes. But in the meantime, I will just say: chalk one up for the conservative weather forecasters who interpret the data and stay calm. They've earned my trust even more throughout this whole fiasco.
Are my eyes deceiving me or are the models coming further south with the higher snow totals both the 12Z GFS-FV3 and Canadian models bring 6-10” of snow to the core metro. Less rain and more snow? more southernly storm track? or just more snow after the changeover back to snow? Just interesting is all.
18Z NAM went a tick higher in totals, 12Z was 1-3” core metro wide now show 3-5” core metro wide. Can we get Novak or a more experienced weather enthusiast to explain further? storm track changing? or just more moisture? I like the higher numbers though!
PWL there have been two videos on FaceBook that aren't posted here. :+( Are you a FB user? It seems we may have to toggle back and forth to keep an eye on Novak's weather page on FB and then the postings here. Let's see how this monster storm plays out. Reminds me of last April and what 'could be' if not for the warmth that is apparently going to squash the party here in the metro.
My looking good for the metro. Amazing amount of moisture in this thing. We may get around an inch of RAIN especially south metro. Nasty part will be when it flips to snow, could end up with washboard roads and/or freezing rain. Bizarre. Wish I had access to the Euro to see if it is tying out with the NAM and GFS.
Again the Fv3 brings almost all that accumulation on the FRONT side of the storm. Warms up fast and turns to a ton of rain in middle of event and ends with lighter snow. Effectively melting pretty much anything that falls at the start. Kinda a bummer I know
The euro has been on the se side of things. If euro was right the warnings would extend into metro. Insaw the 18z euro pushed back nw more so will see what 00z does
@DysonGuy he is correct it does exist. And the latest EURO brings 6+ snows to about half of Hennipen county. This will be interesting few days to say the least. For instance how far north will the rain/snow line go when does it change to rain tonight and when does it change to snow Thursday night and how much snow do we get when it changes back? A lot to keep track of.
I learn something new everyday! Yes sounds like it was announced early October. Thanks! I guess the sites I use most often pivotalweather.com and windy.com don't show these runs as of yet.
yeah its weathermodels.com. Its 10 dollars per month but its pretty much unmatched in great grahics and every model you can think of and individual ensambles. And yes even the 6z/18z euro. Well worth it to me
Anybody read this take from Dave Dahl this afternoon:
A major winter storm is already moving into the southwestern part of the state. The exact track of the storm is still in question, but it’s becoming more and more likely that a large part of central Minnesota will receive significant snowfall from this afternoon through late Thursday night. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the areas already getting snow, as well as the areas most likely to have difficult driving conditions through Thursday. Winter Weather Advisories cover much of the rest of the state. The surface part of the storm is taking shape well to our southwest in northern and central Texas. Since the storm dropped a little farther south than expected, the cold air aloft has also dropped a little farther south. This is now making the heaviest band of snow set up a little farther south as well. Changes in the track of the storm are still not only possible, but probably likely. If you have travel plans over the next 3 days, please check the latest forecasts before you head out.
Obviously as a snow lover I’m hoping he’s correct, but I haven’t heard anyone else say the storm is tracking further south...also notice the absence of any snowfall predictions...this should be interesting, like Novak says every winter storm has surprises, maybe this one will be in favor of more metro snow. Time will tell!
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ReplyDeleteI need to revise my comment: 1) Oh happy day. Everyone will be glad you/the blog are back for this winter season. 2) If I am to believe the location of squirrel nests over noaa predictions of a 'mild winter' I would say the squirrels have it. Their nests are super high, most of them, and it is really, really cold out (below normal). 3) I'm no good at predicting inches of snow, so I will leave that to the others who grace this blog. Here is to a fun winter, banter, videos, and all. Thank you for your blog!
ReplyDeleteIs this like when the ground hog pops his head out? Does waking up the blog in early November mean a nastier Winter? We shall see.
ReplyDeleteWell welcome back Bill and all other snowlovers! Nice and pretty 1-2” around the metro this morning. Good thing I just work miles from home and I take back roads home...no cursing at the traffic.
ReplyDeletewelcome back William! glad to see the blog back in action.
ReplyDeleteThis below average stretch of weather (5-6 weeks now?) will surely lead to a long stretch that's above average, right? I love snow, but the below average temps wear me out.
ReplyDeleteB O R I N G! Sums it up in the weather department thru at least Thanksgiving.
ReplyDeleteFine by me! Less worries when traveling.
DeleteThe Euro is either going to be a hero or a zero on late Friday's snow system. Quite frankly, I have no idea why it has the current 12z solution.
ReplyDeleteWhat is it currently saying?
DeleteNWS is predicting 1-3" in the metro Friday night. As of tonight that's what they're saying. Saw Novak's maps on FB.
Deletewell im guessing the euro is putting down stupid number or something from the way im reading his message?? a little more in depth i guess would be helpful.
DeleteLame snow event as always in the metro. Another miss to the south of course. Novak should have followed the Euro as always.
ReplyDeleteYou can't say 'as always' after last year's Friday the 13th weekend snow event. However, I agree that this forecast was a bust. In St. Louis Park there is just a dusting. One official report on CoCoRaHS shows a half inch in Lakeville, and just .1 in Richfield.
ReplyDeleteOnce again on this site, anything less than three feet of snow is a bust.
ReplyDeleteThis storm was not a bust. We got exactly what was forecast:
https://publicradio1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/updraft/files/2018/11/11-16-hrrr-768x447.png
My SLP forecast was 1 to 3 inches, so to me a dusting is way off, but I won't argue. I don't sit here and call everything a bust, but per Novak's updated maps and the NWS forecast, I was expecting way more than a dusting and made a fool of myself warning my kids/grandkids to get ready for it in the metro areas where we live. I even saw Bloomington w/a total of 2-4 inches predicted at one point, and they also had a dusting. But bring it. I love snow and wish it HAD snowed where I live. "Maybe next time."
DeleteEven Mr. Novak used the 'b' bust word on his FB post today for the metro area snow 'totals' after the forecasts.
Delete**UPDATE** From 11/12 post:
ReplyDeleteBORING continues after Thanksgiving as well, spotty rain scattered snow showers all Mother Nature can dish up for us, but points south could see heath snowfalls.
For you snowlovers take November as a harbinger of things to come this winter you will be very disappointed in the snow department. November has seen plenty of cold days to support snow but vet little snow to speak of, some warmer spells mixed in here and there....that will be your winter in a nutshell here in MSP land, get use to weeks like this for the next few months. Cold with no snow then warmer then rain/liquid with “some” snow on backside then cold again! Enjoy!
From Dave Dahl this evening:
ReplyDeleteSo, even though travelers shouldn’t have trouble getting to their destinations prior to Thanksgiving, getting home might be a different story. A fairly strong wave in the jet stream is expected to slide into the West on Thanksgiving Day, which will help force mild air in our direction, but it’ll also start to increase the moisture available for the Upper Midwest on Friday. Scattered rain showers should move into Minnesota during the day on Friday, with cold enough air mixing in by Friday night to create a wintry mix around here. That should continue into Saturday, with a chance for measurable snow moving in by Sunday afternoon and evening. If you are going to be traveling over the Holiday, please check the latest forecast as we go through the week
Translation:
Flurries with a candy coating after it rains then snow south of MSP.
I don't consider the snow system last week a bust; just a slight miss for the metro. Of course, that is where most of the public lives, so it really looks like a bust.
ReplyDeleteQuite frankly, model guidance (especially the NAM) performed pretty well with that storm. Much of the southern 1/3 of MN received a 2"-4"+ of snow. The Euro showed nothing for southern MN & I consider that a flawed guidance.
Regarding the system after Thanksgiving. It has been been modeled in some of the guidance for the last few days, some models have shown it than lost it all together, while some have not shown it at all. Now most of the guidance is starting to show it, but the solutions are hundreds of miles apart. With the North American Oscillation (NAO) progged to go strongly negative it doesn't seem likely that any low pressure system that forms on the lee side of the Rockies will escape out to sea in the Mid Atlantic. Therefore its likely to cut up into the Upper Mississippi Valley or the Central Great Lakes area. Time will tell as they say. But finally something to follow.
ReplyDeleteBefore we get excited for later this weekend:
ReplyDeleteAnother very big storm looks like it will mostly miss us on Sunday, but it will be close enough for most of us to see some small accumulations of an inch or less by Sunday night. -Ken Barlow 11/20
Yet another experienced MN meteorologist says:
ReplyDeleteNo drama this week, just flurries today and light rain Friday PM; maybe ending as a light mix Saturday. A big storm early next week slides south/east of Minnesota.
-Paul Douglas 11/20
Seems silly, and rather irresponsible, to make that kind of call this far out. We will see.
ReplyDeleteSo basically Ken Barlow and Paul Douglas confirmed my “boring” forecast from last week and yesterday. Good on them!
ReplyDeleteSo now we trust the forecasters to get it right this far out? Very confusing.
Delete@Joel of course we do, their the experts who follow this stuff and get paid big bucks to inform us. Also mark down NWS calling for late weekend storm “to follow a southern solution”, so that makes Paul and Ken and NWS. Enjoy the boring! I might add it’s going to be a challenge to get a White Christmas, I might as well start that conversation since it will be the next topic of debate.
DeleteFirst you said it's silly to make that kind of call, now you're saying they're right. Make up your mind.
DeleteFollow along Joel, you got your anonymous mixed up, I’m the boring anonymous. Btw, Ken/Paul/NWS and co. all still saying south with the Sunday system. Boring continues.......
DeleteAnother forecast perspective for late weekend:
ReplyDeleteSaturday looks quiet weather-wise, but far southern Minnesota could see some snow on Sunday.
It looks like Iowa, far southern Wisconsin and parts of northern Illinois will see the heaviest snow Sunday and Sunday night, but check later forecasts for updates.
At this point I’d say that the Twin Cities metro area could see some snow showers on Sunday.
-Paul Huttner MPR blogpost 11/20
Pulled from this afternoon’s AFD at NWS:
ReplyDeletePast this weekend, there remains a strong signal of a powerful jet
aiming toward the west coast. With a large storm system expected
to form in the Gulf of Alaska, the on-slot of Pacific storm
systems look reasonable through the extended period. For the Upper
Midwest, our weather will likely be controlled by the strength of
the negatively supported NAO. Although teleconnections support a
more positive PNA next week, the combination of the two
interaction leads to a colder pattern. A positive PNA acts to
shift Canadian air masses south over the central U.S. This +PNA in
conjunction with a negative NAO also supports a semi-persistent
Great Lakes/Hudson Bay upper low. This pattern also support a more
drier scenario vs. a wetter due to the drier Canadian air masses.
Translation:
COLD AND BORING, pretty much sums up November, can anyone say El Niño!
This has nothing to do with El niño... It is all the teleconnections tanking and blocking causing Canadian HP to block this pattern south of climatology.
DeleteReally!?!? That is exactly the setup of El Niño where the subtropical jet is stronger which drives systems west to east rather then cutting up into the Great Lakes, a typical El Niño tends to be dry here with much higher precipitation in the central and southern states, that’s what your seeing this November. Will it change?, who knows but if your a snow lover it’s going to be drips and drabs of snow and boring long periods.
DeleteThe anonymous' going at it. That is a new one. hahaha
DeletePulled from this evening’s AFD at NWS:
ReplyDeleteLooking ahead into the following weekend, southerly flow will bring
widespread rain across the region as another system develops over
the central CONUS.
This is for the following weekend, we’re into December by then, what’s this? rain now, cold enough for snow after today then cold air exhausted more rain! Hey at least it’s not boring!
My first post this winter snow season. Happy to be back and bringin it!!! I am very excited about snow chances later this coming week. Cold weather in place, southwest flow developing. Just give me that buckling jet stream and I will bring you a bring it!! Let’s go!!
ReplyDelete@Plymouth, it’s rain dude your bringing the rain, or at best a mix. Too warm. Please go read the AFD from NWS. No need for any unnecessary excitement. Sad snow season continues, either it’s too cold and snow to the south OR too warm with rain. Going to be a disappointing snow season, doesn’t it seem it’s trending that way already?
DeleteI think you may be right.
DeleteI usually disagree with him but this year Paul Huttner may be right that consistent snow cover will be difficult to achieve.
I see this winter as a few days in mid 20s (dry of course) followed by ice or mix storms in the mid 30s. A couple of clippers here and there dropping an inch, rapidly melting within a couple of days.
Maybe one serious snowstorm (6+) mid january, followed by 2-3 days below zero and then back to mid30s for february and march.
El Nino adding up to the general trend of warming winters is a death penalty for the Twin Cities winter (which by the way is inmy opinion the biggest scam in the history of meteorology.)
This morning Paul Douglas blog:
ReplyDeleteWhile wet snow shuts down Chicago today, a cold north wind blows across Minnesota. The first half of this week will feel more like January, with a coating of flakes late Thursday. By the time real moisture returns next weekend the atmosphere should be mild enough for a rainy mix. What a waste of cold air. So far winter is "all hat and no cattle".
-Paul Douglas 11/25
Couldn’t of said it better then myself, what a waste of cold air, what a lousy November!
I've seen a lot of people list 2002-03 as an analog year. That year we didn't see a decent storm until Groundhog Day, and then March was a blow torch. Hope for the same this year!
ReplyDeleteI’m seeing 40’s by weeks end again. Rain. Ba-humbug!
ReplyDeleteYES!!
DeleteHighs in the 40's out of the forecast here! Looks like Saturday only hits 37 now. Liking the trends!
DeleteSurprise surprise NOT, nobody should be surprised by this:
ReplyDeleteThe pattern becomes more active across the country again for late
week into the weekend. There is considerable spread with the
evolution of the pattern, but one trend of late has been to
suppress a larger cyclone well to the south of the area again
Saturday and Sunday. Given the split flow pattern and a strong,
zonal subtropical jet across the southern U.S., this isn`t a
surprising development. It still bears watching, but unless the
subtropical jet buckles northward some in the eastern U.S., it is
unlikely to bring much of an impact here.
The very tame,very little snow of November continues on, boring is an understatement, at least you have your flurries today and tomorrow and maybe an whole inch on Thursday.
I’m issuing an BCW(Brown Christmas Watch) today, in effect for the entire metro area for the next 29 days, expiring 12/25 at 6am!
Hey guys and gals. Don't be down to much on this weekends system
ReplyDeleteyet. I'm looking at the teleconnections and it seems as the Arctic Oscillation will quickly go from strongly negative to very near neutral. Meaning that cold air intrusion may not drive this system as far south as the last major storm. I'm not ruling out a major hit for the southern metro yet.
If you go by what the ECMWF has been advertising the last few days then southern Minnesota should be paying attention I would think. Does anyone know how it performed with the last storm?
ReplyDeleteIt will miss the metro, nothing but a nuisance for us!
DeleteWe don't all live in the metro.
DeleteDon't mind the anonymous trolls. Anyway, the Euro was probably the "best" out of the global models on the last system, if I recall correctly. This setup is quite complex and models seem to be struggling a bit. Definitely something to keep an eye on though, especially south of the metro!
DeleteYup don’t listen to the anonymous trolls because we don’t know how about the expert trolls(this from Dave Dahl):
DeleteThe good news from this type of pattern is the milder temperatures that develop in between the rounds of precipitation. We should see our highs climb back above freezing later this week, which means any snow that does fall shouldn't last very long. By the weekend, another wave in the jet stream is expected to slide across the center of the country, which should put Minnesota on the north side of precipitation that falls. Even though it might start out as a wintry mix on Friday with temps in the 30s, it should change over to mainly snow by Saturday night and Sunday. It probably won’t be a lot of snow, but it’ll more than likely become a nuisance again as we head through the weekend.
Will you look at that, he uses the same wording I did, NUISANCE! Carry on....
Dave Dahl is a meteorologist and uses his name.
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DeleteI find it difficult to understand why some people think that people live exclusively in the Twin Cities and that anyone outside of that is irrelevant. Silly thought really. To answer your question, the Euro has been pretty solid so far this season. Latest runs showing Rochester area and a bit north and south having some good snow. Will have to wait and see if it holds!
DeleteThis is going to be another scary system to 4cast with BUST potential high due to the sharp snow total gradient on the north side of the snow band. This gradient should set-up somewhere near or on the MSP metro. Here we go again.
ReplyDeleteThis system is similar in nature to the storm that hit IA/IL last weekend. It has the potential to over perform for some.
ReplyDeleteThe latest GFS model is now in line with the Euro model. Looks like the system won't be moving as fast and will move further north west. Good news for snow lovers in the MSP area! :D
ReplyDeleteBut the 06z NAM says exactly 0" for MSP!!
DeleteThough the 12z NAM leans toward 3-5" for MSP!!
DeleteNWS better tighten up that snow gradient over MSP.
ReplyDeleteBTW, the 'unknown' post above was mine.
ReplyDeleteWould someone please share the link to view the models? I used to have it but lost the link....
ReplyDeleteI've always used this one to view GFS.... http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMSP
DeleteAnd I use Coolwx.com to view maps.
Pivotal Weather is my go to for everything except the Euro because alot of that is behind a pay wall and can't be accessed through Pivotal.
DeleteOk so we got 2” instead of the 1” I said a few days ago, be happy if you got the 2” because this next system on Saturday promises a metro bust, maybe another 1”, that EURO dropping further and further south, GFS takes the cake on this one they were consistently south for awhile. What does this all mean in the big picture, like I said awhile back “drips and drabs” of snow, overall boring. I’m sure some of you already noticed the extended dryness (aka boring)weather and of course dry cold after this weekend.
ReplyDeleteNAM giving some interesting numbers. GFS is actually way north of where it was 48 hours ago. I think Rochester and southern MSP do good on this.
DeleteVirtually all models....CMC/NAM/GFS give the metro core 2-5”, the lone outliner right now is EURO which gives 1”, pretty crazy when the EURO just yesterday was the model that showed the most for MSP. Oh well that’s weather I suppose, I can see a low-end advisory for the core on this one, but nothing more, this is no April blizzard but any stretch of the imagination.
ReplyDelete00z NAM says 3-4” for the core!
ReplyDeleteSo the American models are both upping the ante for MSP land....the latest runs
ReplyDelete06z GFS: 4-6
12z NAM: 6-8
Let’s see if these higher trends continue could be warning level snows in the core!
What is up with the NAM? Some very high totals around the Midwest. GFS seems to be slowly moving the snows north.
ReplyDeleteMight there be a video coming from Novak? there is life outside the core of the metro.
ReplyDeleteOk then. Let's bring this thing!!!
ReplyDeleteThe closer we are getting to the storm the slower the system seems to be moving, and its also staying at a stronger intensity for quite a bit longer. I'm starting to think this storm may overachieve and surprise quite a few people by the end of it.
ReplyDeleteNOAA has posted a WWA advisory for the TC Metro starting at noon Saturday plus south/east and into western WI; winter storm warning SW MN. As PWL says: bring it!
ReplyDeleteTom & Bill, can we expect a video after the 00z runs come down? I'd like to hear about the dynamics of the incoming storm. I'd also be interested in hearing a little about stacked lows and or negative tilt if you do decide on a video. Let it snow!
ReplyDeleteWOW!! I see you 00z NAM, metro snowlovers will be happy!
ReplyDeleteNovak noted earlier today that there was a high bust potential. This looks like another sharp gradient over the metro with almost nothing far north and 5 or 6” far south. Just a 50 mile change in the track could really mess up forecasts.
ReplyDeleteWow! No chatter at all!! Cmon. This is a decent size storm and it is not certain who will get what. I would love to hear some thoughts!! Bring them!!
ReplyDeleteIt's now snowing basically 'sideways' here in St. Louis Park... how about where you are, PWL? This wind is going to create some interesting formations on roofs and on the ground. That's the only chatter I've got at this point.
DeleteThe point forecast for Minneapolis is now showing 4-7 inches
ReplyDeleteThe radar was just showing a band of moderate snow moving into the southern burbs. The NWS said that this would be a full blown blizzard if the arctic air wasn't cut off from the system. I still hope we all get a few inches to add to what we picked up the other night. It's looking and feeling Christmas-y!
ReplyDeleteSo got a question, we have this initial band of moderate to heavy snow coming in that drops a few inches, is that it? Radar returns has just spotty precipitation beyond the band all the way down to Des Moines, how is it we going to reach the 6-10” forecasted down by I-90?
ReplyDeleteHere it comes! Snowing hard in Plymouth! Bring it!!!
ReplyDeleteHey guys, sorry I’m late to the party but as they say better late then never! Snowing hard in Golden Valley as well! Bring it X 2.
ReplyDeleteI dont know how long this current band is supposed to last, but it started with a vengeance in Waconia around 2:30 and visibility is currently well under 1/2 mile. If this continues for awhile, we are severely under-advised without a Winter Storm Warning. If we get this band and then it’s over, we will end up with a nice couple of inches at least.
ReplyDeleteSnowing hard in Plymouth!!!
ReplyDeleteHere’s some chatter, that’s it? It hit like a ton of bricks for an hour now it’s barely flurrying. Dare I say the b-word.
ReplyDeletePer KARE11 Bloomington has already picked up a cool 3". But yeah, it's supposed to 'lighten up' now though another few inches could fall overnight. That was quite a snow burst this afternoon!
ReplyDeleteAbout 3 inches in South Mpls, max. Already compacted and melted some. Warm outside.
ReplyDeleteWelp....so much for over-performing
ReplyDeleteNice to see that whatever did fall isn't leaving anytime soon!
ReplyDeleteIt will, give it a week. Early next week temps climb above freezing and near 40 by 12/12and if there’s precipitation it will be in the form of liquid. Won’t take much to get rid of these 4-5” in our yards. Two drip and drabs systems followed by 10 days of cold and dry. NWS said it best beign weather ahead. Brown Christmas is still on the table even though it’s white out now.
DeleteI think the worst part of this storm forecast-wise was when people were still calling for a "good 3 inches" to come over night even in the metro core (whenever that first band moved through). Not far from the airport, we got maybe a quarter inch after that first band of 2.5 inches or so came through.
ReplyDeleteFor those like me who are interested in and/or who scoffed at my early, early post about 'where the squirrels build their nests'..... November was running below normal, and here is a little quote from kstp this morning: "Over the next several days, temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees below average, Yuhas said." So far, the squirrels are doing better at predicting temperatures than the noaa seasonal outlooks that had us at a warm fall/move into winter!!!!! P.S. It is pretty out there with the new snow.
ReplyDelete@WeatherGeek, that’s great and all but who really cares about all this cold and below average temperatures if it isn’t going to be accompanied by decent snows. The current Oct/Nov/Dec snowfall is below average and we will be adding to that the next 10 days or so with each passing dry day!
DeleteThaw next week= bye-bye snow!
ReplyDeleteYep, CPC predicting above-normal temps in the 6-14 day forecast, so 9-17 December.
ReplyDeleteLet's see if that verifies. Let's hope so!!
NOAA gave itself a good grade for last weekend's snow event. https://www.weather.gov/mpx/1Dec2018grade
ReplyDeleteBone dry and nothing on the horizon
ReplyDeleteLooks like the warmup won't make it past freezing!
ReplyDeleteTry again! Both Jonathan Yuhas and Paul Douglas are forecasting mid to upper 30’s next weekend. Solid few days of thaw means melting snow.
DeleteLooks like the boring is getting more boring if that’s possible.
ReplyDeleteYou got that right, down right boring for this snowlover. Our snow deficit is -5.5 and counting this season with each dry and miserably boring day that passes
DeletePaul Douglas had this to say on his blog last night:
ReplyDeleteThe pattern isn't ripe for heavy snow anytime soon, although models are hinting at a more formidable potential for flakes 2 days before Christmas.
Maybe something way way out there! But wouldn’t it be par for the course after all these dry days and relative ease on the roads that Mother Nature will find a way to muck it up for holiday traveling, like they say Mother Nature will do what Mother Nature wants to do!
Will be touch and go on white Christmas this year, seeing a lot of thawing temps next 10 days and I’m already seeing blades of grass and open spots here and there, if it doesn’t snow next two weeks I give it a 50/50 shot of white or brown Christmas.
ReplyDeleteI like when other states' snowstorms make our news page headlines, because it's so boring here. Bring the boring! Bring it!
ReplyDeleteFrom Ken Barlow this morning:
ReplyDeleteI don’t see any Arctic air invasions aiming toward Minnesota for the next 7-10 days. I also do not see any signs of any major snowstorms. That’s not to say we won’t see little bouts of snow once in a while, but no blockbuster storms are out there lurking and ready to pounce!
The warmer air looks like it may actually stick around into Christmas Day and perhaps beyond.
Translation: Boring and El Niño-ish
GOOD. I'm traveling over Christmas and I don't need snow mucking it up.
DeleteNow we have an air quality alert until 6 p.m. Thursday in the metro. Is that usual in the 'winter'??? What a strange fall/transition into winter we are having.
ReplyDeleteNot strange, just El Niño at play!
DeleteThanks.
DeleteWhat a crappy start to winter and now a brown Christmas to boot...pretty dismal out there....won’t look or feeling like Christmas this year!
ReplyDelete80% chance of above normal temps for 18-22 Dec. C'mon El Nino!!
ReplyDelete��BROWN CHRISTMAS WARNING ��
ReplyDeletenow in effect for the next 10 days for the metro area!
Huge patches of grass now showing up around the metro with at least 5 days of thawing weather in the week and nothing significant snow wise on the horizon.
“I’m dreaming of a brown Christmas” sounds so much better, doesn’t it? Embrace the thaw, embrace El Niño, consider it Santa’s gift this year!
ReplyDeleteNWS:
ReplyDeleteLooking at the larger scale from the GEFS, we
really are not seeing any signs of the large scale pattern
possibly becoming more favorable for seeing more significant
systems here until after Christmas, when the GEFS shows mean
troughing setting up to our southwest. Till then, it`s a pretty
benign weather pattern for us.
Translation: NWS officially calling for a brown Christmas!
Could it be, can we actually get a snowstorm this winter?, I have this to offer from our friends at the NWS this morning:
ReplyDeleteBeyond
this weekend, several storm systems will affect the west coast. Once
these storms move across the Rockies and into the Plains, a
potential storm system could affect a large area of the Upper
Midwest. Timing and overall track will need to be watched.
Let me add my two cents...I sure hope we get nailed with this, because with the kids off from school it’s hours and hours of free outside entertainment
Darkest week of the year and we've got highs in the upper 30s and mid 40s. Love it! Guy at the park had to stop flooding the ice rink. Also love it! Keep it coming!
ReplyDeleteI told the peeps at work today that a major storm system could impact us right after Christmas. They asked how confident, I said a 50/50 chance it would effect us, but it impossible at this point to tell if we would be on the cold side or warm side. It now looks as if the chance of effecting us is 6 out of 10. It appears that if it affects us here in the metro we would be on the cold side. At this time I don't feel comfortable with any more than a 6 in 10 chance because the trend is to have major winter storms pass us to the SE this year. I would not want to buck this trend until more evidence is in, so will continue with the 40% chance of it sliding south and east of the metro.
ReplyDeleteBill, maybe we need a new thread for the .10" forecasted overnight tonight in the Metro?! :)
ReplyDeleteActually there's "new thread potential" with the storm Randy's talking about. NWS phrased it as "The biggest weather story in some time could materialize just beyond the current forecast period."
I'll take it!
Sorry to burst your bubble, but a new thread for a rainstorm? Jonathan Yuhas forecast for next week, notice cold arctic air lacking, above freezing temperatures, what you have is another metro non-snowstorm thus continuing with the non-winter theme El Niño theme.
DeleteWEDNESDAY……...36 / 34 Cloudy and windy with snow developing in the afternoon then freezing rain in the evening changing to all rain – thunder possible. Chance for snow, freezing rain and rain is 80%.
Sorry El nino, one meteorologist's forecast for 7 days out in a Minnesota winter does not burst my bubble. If he ends up being correct, mega-kudos to him.
DeleteIn the meantime, I'm getting geared up to watch model runs, trends, discussions, and forecasts shift for the next 7 days and hope I get a piece of the action (snow). It's been a long time since we've had a storm to track in our neighborhood, so let's just enjoy the bubble while it lasts.
Cheers!
I agree! Let the fun begin. Euro and GFS are both on board right now. Nice to have something to track.
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ReplyDeleteNew Bill/Tom video posted! Great video guys, and thank you for the "sausage making" level of detail!
ReplyDeleteLike Tom mentioned in the video and like Jonathan Yuhas continues to forecast simply to warm for a snowstorm in the metro, go west and north if you want the white gold! Rain and thunder is likely bet here with minimal front and backside snows. El Niño winters aren’t they a bitch!
ReplyDeletePretty clear from looking at more recent models and reading the NWS forecast discussion, we are lined up for SNOW!!!! I can't wait. Bring it!!
ReplyDeleteAnd let's do another video really, really soon!! Bring that, too! Love the videos. Love them!
ReplyDeleteBad news for metro snowlovers...BIG SNOWS JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST....Minneapolis metro area and points south atmosphere will be just too warm so mixing with rain and sleet will take away a big chuck of accumulation. High temperature on Thursday will be above freezing but places like St. Cloud and north of there could easily be 12+". Sorry MSP!
ReplyDeleteHoping it changes........a tad colder......for more snow....... time will tell. Thanks for the update.
DeleteDon't worry WeatherGeek there is absolutely NOTHING backing this. It is too early to make such a rash statement especially when all trends point towards snow in and around MSP at this juncture.
DeleteSteve—What is that based on? New model runs? Your statements come from what data? Just curious.
ReplyDeleteIDK. I've gotta watch the video on FB, and Novak just posted a map that has the metro area in the 'anticipate problems' swath on his FB page. I'm holding out for snow, PWL.
DeleteToo early to make any kind of call on this. Until it hits land, we all know how much can change. But the speculation should be fun. Bill how about a new thread for this one?
ReplyDeleteFor what it's worth this early in the game, all of today's 12z models I reviewed (GFS, FV3-GFS, CMC, GDPS, etc.)seem to be bullish on double digit snowfall totals for the metro. As a snow/winter lover, I hope they are right, but the storm is several days away and as we all know...anything can happen.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Not Paul Douglas that maybe a new thread for 'what's coming next' would be nice, plus the video that is on FB because if I recall, not everyone who visits and comments here is on FB. Thanks for the update, Schnee Meister.
ReplyDelete0Z Euro model is pure gold for MSP. Metro dome buster 2.0?
ReplyDeleteI keep 'watching for a watch'......... Thanks for the update. I like that description of Metro dome buster 2.0.
DeleteWhat did the 0Z Euro show for MSP? I can’t seem to find the Euro model most of the time. I would love if it was shared out. Give me the pure gold numbers! Bring it!!!
ReplyDeleteLooks like this will be a marginal temp event. Hope it breaks below freezing!
ReplyDeleteGuys can we temper the hype and excitement somewhat, this is not a pure snow event, temps will be above freezing for a lot of the event, rain will be a factor, the NWS has included it in their point forecasts as well as their discussions, and I continue to point towards Jonathan Yuhas’s forecast over at KSTP(he is a meteorologist with experience and knows how to read and interpret weather models better then any of us). Big snows north and west of the metro as is the case most of the time, we will be left with slop. El Niño winters usually bring slop storms!
ReplyDeleteAw, we can get excited if we wish to. Th/Fri I see just one period where NWS is predicting above freezing temps---otherwise Wed night, Th night and all day Friday look to be in the 20s--maybe cold enough for snow? Anyway, time will tell. And we can dance and get excited if we want. :+) If it ends up on the warm end like you say, so be it. I'll have to check out Yuhas and all the others who compete with him.
DeleteMan all these people are like wet towels. Let's get HYPED!
Deletefunny thing is that anon and el nino and tim jager are all the same person just different names...what ever happened to the new thread is bill not doing these anymore??
ReplyDeleteNWS point forecast now calling for rain/snow mix for most of event for the metro. The Euro is showing the low moving northeast through southern MN. The GFS is showing the low moving northeast through Iowa. I'm rooting for the GFS!!!
ReplyDeleteHappy holidays everyone! Hope it brings snow and happiness.
ReplyDeleteHappy Holidays to you too, Stormgeek! Everybody, think SNOW and have a wonderful and safe holiday!
ReplyDeleteStorm hits the coast late Monday and then things will start to fall in place. I see Novak has a new video out tonight. GFS has warmer air over the metro and Euro has colder air as of now, so Euro is still predicting 16” of snow for the metro. Looks so far like the classic 100 miles either way, boom or bust. Will be fun starting tomorrow night when the models get it over land. Where is Bill?
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ReplyDeleteGFS and NAM going with less snow more rain. Simply too warm no arctic air. You wanted me to reference models there you go, but it was mentioned 2 days ago big snows NORTH and WEST, still believe it.
ReplyDeleteThere is still a very wierd disconnect with the euro gfs and gem. Gfs actually has a much further se track and is actually pretty dang strong. Yet it has a very weak precip field on its nw side and like 4-6 inch snows at best nw of us. euro tracks nearly overhead and has better snow shield then gfs and slighly better profiles. Just defies the laws there
ReplyDeleteIt does look warmer side metro area now per NWS latest forecasts and all of you who called it warm. Yuck. I prefer snow to rain on snow or snow on top of rain. With the cold air pouring in afterwards.... please let it snow. The ice will be nasty. You all have a safe/happy holiday, too. At least Mother Nature and Old Man Winter will let people around here in MN get from Point A to Point B on Christmas Eve and day. ... or so it appears.
ReplyDeleteP.S. Maybe Bill/Novak are migrating this whole blog idea over to FB? Novak has made two videos, now, that haven't been shared here on this blog. Novak's FB page is always very active; the MinnesotaForecaster one is pretty quiet. Cheers as the holiday approaches for those who celebrate it..............
ReplyDeleteVictory for Jonathan Yuhas! Way too go JY!
ReplyDeleteNWS going with RAIN on Thursday for metro, my comment on Dec 21 still stands, even with the ridicule afterwards
The 06z NAM gives the metro an(wait for it),
ReplyDeletea whole inch of snow.
Snow haters rejoice!
Snow lovers there’s always next year(good thing next year is only a week away so you won’t have to wait too long)
Unfortunately, in regard to the pending storm it's looking like the Grinch who stole the white day after Christmas. It appears the metro will be a mix mess instead of a white wonderland many of us are hoping for. Let's not lose the faith! Keep dancing PWL et al!!
ReplyDeleteThe 12z NAM ups the ante to a(wait for it)
ReplyDeletewhole 3 inches. What drama! What you think metro can we manage that in late December, 3” can be back breaking.
Still well over 48 hours out everyone! R. E. L. A. X. Dancing and prancing in Plymouth! Bring it!!!!!
ReplyDeleteWhat a crappy winter man. Well below average in the snow department and now more winter rain.
ReplyDeleteYep, it's going to be cold enough for snow UNTIL the moisture arrives. Then it's going to warm up so it can rain and wash away what little snow we have. And then...wait for it...it's going to get nice and cold, but of course there will be no moisture around for snow. It's a very mid-Atlantic type scenario. If this is going to be our wimpy winter, please fast forward to spring!!
DeleteNovak was so much more optimistic during last night's video that the metro would get the snow. He was speaking a lot about the location of the jet streaks. I wake up this morning and there is nothing but talk about rain!! Beyond disappointing!! What is the Euro showing?
ReplyDeleteThe Euro is showing the center of the storm tracking through southern MN, a bad track if we want snow in the metro. The GFS and FV3-GFS are also showing the storm tracking through southern MN. The tracks are too far north for snow in southern MN. Grrrr!
ReplyDeleteBest Christmas gift ever! Thank you Santa for the rain! I fly on Thursday.
ReplyDeleteModels shifting south???? Bring it!!!
ReplyDeleteNo their not, storm is coming to close to MSP which means more rain/slop.
DeleteSorry PWL If you mean south yes storm is traveling into southern MN which means more mix and rain, meaning much less snow, sorry I know you like the snow, so do I.
DeleteThe 21z GFS is out. The news for snowlovers in the metro continues to get even worse. Rising temperatures Thursday night with a mix changing to rain and then rain and close to 40 degrees on Thursday. The only reference to snow for the metro is a wimpy 40% chance of a little snow on Friday from any moisture that happens to be left over. Talk about a Christmas gut punch!
ReplyDeleteSorry, I meant 18z, not 21z.
ReplyDeleteLet's see, how many more model runs before the storm gets here? At this rate we will end up having torrential tropical downpours with temperatures in the 80's and high dew points. Welcome to another lame southern MN winter!
ReplyDeleteAnd Novak will come on here and declare the models performed admirably. Whatever another lame-a__ storm with rain.
DeleteI say its still too early too know if the metro will see mostly rain though. Due to the metro being right over where the rain/snow line is means just a small shift south. (even 10 miles) Could make the difference. So for snow lovers keep your hopes up!
ReplyDeleteStorm is just starting to hit the west coast. Way too early to make a call on the track, could easily move 100 miles or more either way. Morning models should be the first real read on it. Remember we have had them move before. What is interesting is how close to Minneapolis the gradients have been lately. Will it be another heavy snow north, nothing south?
ReplyDelete0Z NAM with its first real read and they spit out a grand total of .5-1”. Sad sad state of affairs
ReplyDeleteGfs has gone way nw now. Just not our storm this time
ReplyDeleteThere will be other issues at play especially in areas with decent snow cover yet. Especially down around mankato owatonna Albert Lea where I live. Combine snow cover with 1-2 inches of rain and frozen ground. Then a flash freeze
ReplyDeleteYou know what I find funny is all those posters who say “ the storm is still in the Pacific “ or “it’s still off shore” and my favorite “wait till it comes on shore so we get a better sampling of data”, as if that data is going to give what snowlovers want. So let’s appease these posters, someone already posted the NAM’s pathetic numbers well the 0z GFS ain’t much better with only 1-2” for the metro.
ReplyDeleteWatches are up and they do not include the metro, minimal front and backside snows with a lot of rain in between...let me see where did I hear that before, oh yeah the one that was correct from the beginning, another victory for Jonathan Yuhas
ReplyDeleteWow. Jonathan Yuhas seems so much more humble on TV versus when he’s posting as his alter ego on this site.
DeleteI know. I was going to ask if this was Mr. Yuhas in disguise or a relative or ?? Fascinating. Well, let's all go up to Alex and party in the snowstorm. Winters have definitely changed since my childhood.
DeleteI know the storm has yet to move through and things can change, but assuming things pan out as currently predicted, this last week or so has been such a crazy ride. I wondered when the storm was being hyped 8 (!!!) days out, is it because the weather pattern has been so docile? Are meteorologists bored? Or is it because the storm supposed to hit during a holiday week? I guess I understand that. But still. Eight days of posting model data? Eight days of speculation? I saw maps with 20+ inches for the metro being posted at that time. And even if it had a "buyer beware" sticker attached to it, you know people are going to still think, "Well, even if we get half of that!" It's such an experiment in human sociology, social media, and the current state of hype, click bait, and snow-mongering weather terrorism. Anyway, we'll see what happens here. I hope for you snow lovers something drastically changes. But in the meantime, I will just say: chalk one up for the conservative weather forecasters who interpret the data and stay calm. They've earned my trust even more throughout this whole fiasco.
ReplyDeleteeasy - huge holiday week and huge traveling week.
ReplyDeleteBring the warmth and 40 degrees! Great for driving. Great for heating bills.
ReplyDeleteAre my eyes deceiving me or are the models coming further south with the higher snow totals both the 12Z GFS-FV3 and Canadian models bring 6-10” of snow to the core metro. Less rain and more snow? more southernly storm track? or just more snow after the changeover back to snow? Just interesting is all.
ReplyDelete18Z NAM went a tick higher in totals, 12Z was 1-3” core metro wide now show 3-5” core metro wide. Can we get Novak or a more experienced weather enthusiast to explain further? storm track changing? or just more moisture? I like the higher numbers though!
DeleteMost of the snow will be on the front end and then turn go rain and be eroded away
ReplyDeleteWhatever snow does happen
ReplyDeleteNovak—What you say? I need to hear that there is still some hope for SNOW in Plymouth. Bring it. Video???
ReplyDeletePWL there have been two videos on FaceBook that aren't posted here. :+( Are you a FB user? It seems we may have to toggle back and forth to keep an eye on Novak's weather page on FB and then the postings here. Let's see how this monster storm plays out. Reminds me of last April and what 'could be' if not for the warmth that is apparently going to squash the party here in the metro.
DeleteThe 00z GFS and FV3-GFS brought heavier snow totals south to the Twin Cities, as compared to earlier runs today. I'm still holding onto to hope!
ReplyDeleteMy looking good for the metro. Amazing amount of moisture in this thing. We may get around an inch of RAIN especially south metro. Nasty part will be when it flips to snow, could end up with washboard roads and/or freezing rain. Bizarre. Wish I had access to the Euro to see if it is tying out with the NAM and GFS.
ReplyDeleteAgain the Fv3 brings almost all that accumulation on the FRONT side of the storm. Warms up fast and turns to a ton of rain in middle of event and ends with lighter snow. Effectively melting pretty much anything that falls at the start. Kinda a bummer I know
ReplyDeleteThe euro has been on the se side of things. If euro was right the warnings would extend into metro. Insaw the 18z euro pushed back nw more so will see what 00z does
ReplyDeleteThere is no 18Z Euro. That model only runs 2 times a day. 0 and 12Z.
DeleteI like being in the bullseye 7 days out.
ReplyDeleteWrong there is a 18z euro DysonGuy. Its brand new on Ryan Maue site. Its pretty neat but only goes to 90 hrs
ReplyDeleteOnly about 2 months old now. 6z/18z euro data does indeed exist
ReplyDelete@DysonGuy he is correct it does exist. And the latest EURO brings 6+ snows to about half of Hennipen county. This will be interesting few days to say the least. For instance how far north will the rain/snow line go when does it change to rain tonight and when does it change to snow Thursday night and how much snow do we get when it changes back? A lot to keep track of.
DeleteI learn something new everyday! Yes sounds like it was announced early October. Thanks! I guess the sites I use most often pivotalweather.com and windy.com don't show these runs as of yet.
ReplyDeleteyeah its weathermodels.com. Its 10 dollars per month but its pretty much unmatched in great grahics and every model you can think of and individual ensambles. And yes even the 6z/18z euro. Well worth it to me
ReplyDeleteThe Eps is there too but with precip and snow and you name it what else
ReplyDeleteAnybody read this take from Dave Dahl this afternoon:
ReplyDeleteA major winter storm is already moving into the southwestern part of the state. The exact track of the storm is still in question, but it’s becoming more and more likely that a large part of central Minnesota will receive significant snowfall from this afternoon through late Thursday night. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the areas already getting snow, as well as the areas most likely to have difficult driving conditions through Thursday. Winter Weather Advisories cover much of the rest of the state. The surface part of the storm is taking shape well to our southwest in northern and central Texas. Since the storm dropped a little farther south than expected, the cold air aloft has also dropped a little farther south. This is now making the heaviest band of snow set up a little farther south as well. Changes in the track of the storm are still not only possible, but probably likely. If you have travel plans over the next 3 days, please check the latest forecasts before you head out.
Obviously as a snow lover I’m hoping he’s correct, but I haven’t heard anyone else say the storm is tracking further south...also notice the absence of any snowfall predictions...this should be interesting, like Novak says every winter storm has surprises, maybe this one will be in favor of more metro snow. Time will tell!