Sunday, January 20, 2019
The Cold is Here. Will Lasting Snow Follow?
For snow lovers in the Twin Cities, it's been a depressing winter. The mild air appears to be a memory now, however, and the threat of at least "several inches" of snow (per current NWS discussion) appears in the offing. Will it be enough to make the majority of this blog's readers happy? We shall see.
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Amazing how the metro core is getting missed again right now. Line of snow fell apart on approach with merely a few flurries and then the heavier stuff slides to the north of us while a batch of snow south of us comes together on the east side of the metro, leaving the core mainly missed.
ReplyDeleteYeah the radar right now is almost like a practical joke. Total "snow hole" right over the metro. I've noticed this phenomenon a lot actually in past years. The metro is definitely geographically predisposed to getting less snow than other areas around it. It's science. Don't deny it.
ReplyDeleteThat's true but only to a point.
DeleteThe radar doughnut is also sue to the fact that when you are very close to the beam you only pick up precips if it is present at all layers which is not the case today...
if you move to the lacrosse radar the doughnut is not there anymore.
All this said, it is undeniable that the metro is in the least favorable position to get snow.
I think we get a lot of evidence about it every winter.
And do not mention the april snowstorm last year.
That is evidence that winters are NOT working, instead of working.
So now a WWA is posted that includes some of the metro. That was sure some 'less than an inch' earlier today. A few flakes, maybe. Bummer. Not sure if I can believe the advisory. Time will tell.
ReplyDeleteDr. Novak has his snow map out for tomorrow, the core is in his 4-6” range. NOT HAPPENING!, no one in the core will measure 4-6”, but he did include a caveat “some will bust”. The Metro always busts, plan on it again!
ReplyDeleteInteresting the difference between the 18Z GFS and 0Z NAM 3K. NAM is suggesting almost nothing over the metro. KSTP went with 4” at 6 PM and I just saw Novak say the bust potential was high. Will be interesting to see in the morning what shows up.
ReplyDeleteAnother nothing for the metro as usual.
ReplyDeleteThanks for attempting it though.
We’ll try again next time (btw the 7+ inches the gfs is advertising for next monday will become 0.3 by then).
AHAHAHAHAH! Simply ridiculous.
BUST for the metro!!!! As usual! Glad I didn't get my hopes up. Last night the NWS predicted a 90% chance of 3-5 inches today for metro. Did I say BUST??!!!! I can't wait until this pathetic excuse for a winter is OVER!!!!
ReplyDeleteCan we add this winter to the government shutdown, seriously this winter needs to be shutdown, throw it away, send it back and fast forward to spring!
ReplyDeleteI would like to put on my Nostradamus hat and get a jump on the snow forecast for the core metro for next Sunday/Monday by simply saying BUST!!!! There, now none of us needs to get our hopes up or listen to any forecasts about it, given that we already know how it will turn out! I'm in favor of fast forwarding to spring too! At least in the spring I don't get continually disappointed!!
ReplyDeleteRemember back when everyone was using the word "promising" for today's "storm"? Now they're using that word for early next week. "Promising" doesn't mean anything. I'd give higher grades to KSTP who had 1-3 inches yesterday afternoon. That's the lowest I saw.
ReplyDeleteDon't predict rain or snow during a drought! Many places in Minnesota have plenty of snow. The Twin Cities is not one of those places. It's late January and the grass in my yard is still visible here in the western burbs. What little snow we got has ended, and the radar shows no more to come. Like several other posters, I hold out very little hope for anything beyond a dusting in the core on Sunday and Monday. The rest of Minnesota, look out, here comes more snow for you!
ReplyDeleteMaybe the NWS is sick of working for free
ReplyDeleteWho wants to take some guesses as to how Sunday/Monday's snow misses the core? Storm goes too far north, south, east or west of the metro; core gets dry slotted; arctic air is too dry and strong for the storm; the invisible giant snow shield hand over the core once again swats the storm away, etc.
ReplyDeleteSimilar to today, it will go south due to a trough moving over southern canada that will push the system south. 12z suite already showing this trend.
ReplyDeleteAnd last but not least, models are in fairly good agreement with
ReplyDeletebringing a shortwave/clipper through the region during the Sunday
night/Monday timeframe. While we still can`t pinpoint the path and
timing of this system just yet, the chance for accumulating snow
looks likely along its track.
Bank on it going from western MN to southwest MN on thru southeast MN leaving the core pretty much high and dry with the outside chance at flurries or cosmetic dustings
Unfortunately I think you're right.
DeleteThe late Sunday into Monday clipper looks like it may happen but there isn’t a ton of moisture in it. It will be so cold that getting 6”+ of powder isn’t hard.
ReplyDeleteThis morning Kare 11 was already saying that areas west and southwest of the Twin Cities look like the most likely areas to pick up accumulating snow Sunday/Monday. Surprise! Surprise...Not!
DeleteHahahahahaha, I just said that yesterday won’t even looking at any models just reading discussions. It’s like a broken record.
DeleteFor Sunday night and Monday, the GFS/ECMWF are in remarkably good
ReplyDeleteagreement on a rather strong clipper impacting the region. This
looks to have the potential to be an over achieving clipper, with a
health swath of 6-10" of snow possible somewhere over southern MN
into southern WI. The reason this has the potential to be a high end
clipper is the route it takes. It will come out of northern Alberta
Sunday morning, reaching southern/central Iowa Monday morning, where
it will make a hard left and head nearly due east toward Detroit.
This puts an inflection point over southern MN for the
precipitation, resulting in a more prolonged event. Both the
GFS/ECMWF lay down a strip of 0.5" to 0.6" of QPF with this system.
When looking at the CIPs analogs, there`s a similar system from the
end of the December of 2000 where MSP got 7.5" of snow out of a mere
0.25" of liquid, so beside the longer duration snow, given how cold
it will be, we are certainly looking at the potential for SLRs to be
near or even exceeding 20:1, which would allow snow totals to
overachieve quite a bit. The one variable that could throw a wrench
in this forecast though is the cold and dry arctic high that will be
centered just to the north of the Great Lakes that will be the
source region for our near surface air parcels, so this dry air
could limit how far east significant snow amounts make it.
And there you have it folks, you got excited reading that first part didn’t you, come on you know you did! But then you saw the bust writing on the wall and the cold arctic and the boring continues on.....
00Z GFS is funny, hilarious 6-8" thru the core. Raise your hand if you have seen this before(like half a dozen times this winter)!
ReplyDeleteWhat are the thoughts on the bitter cold coming after the storm? Looks like we won't get above zero for 3 days but I'm more worried about the low temps in the -20's. Add in some windchill and it won't be hard to hit the -35 threshold to cancel school in my district. One of my kids is already looking ahead to the days off next week...Ugh.
ReplyDeleteMy bet right now is a "cold day" on Wednesday. Possibility of "cold day" also on Tuesday or Thursday. Monday's school dependent on track of the clipper. Sounds like SW MN schools most likely to be affected by that.
DeleteShift has already started... low that was centered over Willmar on 00z was at the SD/MN border on the 6z. Now just south of Pierre on the 12z. Given it another couple of days and as usual the metro will get the wonderful 'dusting'...
ReplyDeleteahahahahahahahah!
Sunday’s storm is starting to wave bye-bye to the metro core, all models have shifted further away and totals are coming way down. You should of known that was going to happen once Dr. Novak put out his impact map and it included the Twin Cities and now it’s sliding further away.
ReplyDeleteIs it not just me then than thinks that Dr Novak 'jinxes' snowstorm in the metro core?
DeleteSeriously, I think he just puts maps out way too early; I guess he needs to drive traffic to his social media accounts and weather consulting business.
Those maps are useful though in the sense that if they have the core metro in the moderate or high impact a few days before then you know you can plan your travels with no impact at all.
Could it be that my drawing those areas around the core he is actually creating a magnetic shield that pushes then away???
It's just you. Oh, were you being sarcastic and funny at the expense of the professional meteorologist who provides his college-educated and industry- experienced storm forecasts FOR FREE? All from the comforts of an anonymous post? *slow clap*
DeleteI don't know if you've ever noticed the pattern of the maps he puts out, but he CLEARLY posts a general area of concern in advance and then tweaks it as the storm approaches. I don't know if you've ever watched his videos either where he talks CLEARLY about every red flag and bust potential out there that he sees.
I wish all the trolls on here would just understand the simple concept that "STORM FORECASTS SHIFT". It's what they do. Sometimes they shift away from your town, and sometimes they shift and hit your town. Meteorologists have the tough job of figuring out when and why those shifts occur...using math and maps.
You're on a weather blog. Show some respect for the people who contribute and dedicate their livelihoods to the craft.
First, show the same respect you advocate for others.
DeleteSecond, let's get to the core of the disagreement here
If storm forecasts shifts, what is the usefulness of putting out maps that give a general area of concern when it is more likely to shift?
It just makes no sense to give information that are most likely inaccurate 4-5 days in advance because of the high uncertainty of the science.
The trend is always the same: first the map, then the red-flags, then the 'razor-sharp gradient', then the 'dry easterly flow'.
Sorry, seen too many times.
I have no personal beef against Dr Novak and I applaud your heartfelt defense of his endeavors but sending out info that is most likely inaccurate is just useless.
Much better to put probabilities of events like the NWS does.
I know Bill is a fan, and so am I.
"Moderate" impact 4 days in advance means absolutely nothing.
A 52% chance of 4" of snow 4 days in row gives me at least an idea...
I see what you are saying JAW but just for the record and openness, I don't believe Novak has a degree in meteorology. I could be wrong but I believe that to be true.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.novakweather.com/about
DeleteNot sure the U of M has that 'specific major' in meteorology, but per his website: "Tom is a graduate of the University of Minnesota Twin Cities. He has a Bachelors of Arts degree in Geography with an emphasis in Physical Geography including Cartography, Climatology & Meteorology. Tom has been in the weather business professionally for the last 20 years and has extensive experience in weather forecasting & presentations." And I understand what Jaw is saying. Sometimes people on the blog just use it as a medium to 'get us going' on a topic behind 'anonymous' monikers, and it's a tad frustrating. I am a novice weather-obsessed person, and I have always enjoyed the discussions on this blog that explain the weather to me, plus the videos. I started following Novak on FB when he was just starting out. I think even in these past few years the climate has changed drastically. There seem to be far more 'busts' than previously. I know there have been discussions in past years of moving this totally to FB so that we could 'see' who everyone is, but I don't think that will happen. One thing that doesn't seem to bust: the cold, cold air that is coming in today through late next week. Onward fellow winter enthusiasts.
ReplyDeleteI definitely agree with the notion of the climatology. I may not have a huge sample size because I am relatively new to tracking systems. However, it seems that since that overachieving winter in 13-14 things have hit a metaphorical wall. It has been quite strange. I am definitely in the same boat enjoying the analysis and the technical discussions provided by a few in here (Novak and RandyinChamplin stand out). If you just tune out the silly stuff all is well! And yes, that cold is going to be interesting to keep an eye on moving forward. Cheers!
DeleteOn another topic, has anyone read the NWS forecast discussion from this afternoon? If not, you don't have to worry about wasting your time doing so. It's the same story line again. I seriously wonder whether it will ever really snow in the core again this season?
ReplyDeleteIt will, just boring nuisance amounts. Been harping on this since the start of December and here we are almost two months later, same ole same ole.A squirrel finds a nut sometimes, Mother Nature will find the Twin Cities one of these times before spring arrives, but as a whole this winter in a nutshell(no pun intended haha) has been nothing but BORING!
DeleteAnd yes to answer your question I read it and it’s the same boring comments, blah blah metro on the edge, blah blah it will be a sharp gradient, blah blah blah the cold dry arctic air will suppress the storm. If you heard it once you have heard it a thousand times this winter.
Wow. Kind of tired of the negativity. Cmon now. We can do better. You don’t have to like snow and all, but why so negative and critical? We have lots of weather to talk about. Cold now, snow chances this weekend, and extraordinary cold this next week. Pretty fun living in Minnesota!! Bring it!!!
ReplyDeleteNew thread set up for super cold.
ReplyDelete