Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
Thursday, February 21, 2019
Record Set, Is There More Icing on the Cake?
With the February snow record now shattered, Minnesota weather enthusiasts eyed the weekend for perhaps a bit more snow to add to the final record tally. Y'all shall discuss those prospects here.
Mr. Novak posted about an hour ago that blizzard potential is growing "from MSP south & east later SAT into SUN AM" ... yes, a video will be interesting.
I agree...great video, and it's going to be VERY exciting to track where that heavy axis of snow sets up. I am personally hoping for another 50 mile jog to the NW so I get to see it!
Models for the most part continue to move NW, the latest GFSV3 has heavy snow for all of the Metro now. 4-8 on the NW and 8-12 on the SE side. Will be a fun storm to watch as it unfolds over the next 48-60 hours!
It would seem that way Joel, most outlets going with 1-3” for Friday night. Add then Saturday’s numbers and then Tuesday’s and I think we will be very very close to be living thru the all time snowiest month on record at MSP. 46.9”(November 91) is the number to beat, we are at 31.7”. To me this is very attainable and to think we might do it in a month that has only 28 days as compared to others that have 30 or 31.
Took the words out of my mouth/thoughts bigdaddy. If history repeats, yup, the Halloween Blizzard revisited. Dave Dahl just predicted 6-8 inches for the metro and if the storm wobbles more towards us...... who knows. We aren't even in the watch area, 'yet'.....
The last GFS nudged it back SW a bit and the NAM continues to show dry air pumping into it. The NAM is really the outlier. The GFS and Euro moving it slightly each run makes sense, the NAM is really odd (low QPF) and I'd love to hear Novak's take on it. NWS is also throwing in some potential freezing rain.
Look forward to the video. Enjoyed the video Novak did earlier today. Bill and Tom thank you again for doing these.
Ian L is going with 'just' 2-4 inches metro...... I remember 'the olden days' when the forecasters got graded on their predictions. Now I've got to try and see how KARE and 'CCO come out with their predictions tonight, and we'll have a metro line-up of possibilities. I still put my bets on Novak's thoughts/video.
Final post from me today: Belinda (KARE) and Chris ('CCO) are not predicting, yet. They will only say 1-3 inches by Saturday morning, the break in snow action, and then the possibility for 'something big' on Sunday without totals attached until they see more models. So there we have it. I wonder if I will wake up and see the storm watch including the metro area, too. As PWL says, 'Bring it.'
you need government sites or a paid subsription site...weathermodels.com is welllll worth the money. A weather genuious created it. His name is Ryan Maue. A very avid meterologist. One of the best i have seen
Thanks Alex. Just subscribed and am learning how to use it. F5 seems to have easier to read maps but weather models has a ton more data. I see what you said about the Euro. The NAM is coming in now and remains a little odd but has increased metro totals.
I know how to read, insulting much!! Did I say he said he called it a bust? I said he mentioned bust, usually Novak is pretty even kneel he doesn’t lurch on every model run but when he mentioned bust all models had moved the snow out of all of Minnesota then when he mentioned blizzard models were bringing it back into Minnesota.
Sorry Tim didnt mean to sound that offensive. I apoligize for that haha. Most models did swing hard back nw today like the gem and Ukmet. That nam though i tell ya
Impressive amounts of snow in Arizona as the storm really starts to get its act together over the next 24-36 hours! Insane snow totals from NWS in Flagstaff, https://twitter.com/NWSFlagstaff/status/1098854375471136769
Seriously NWS!! Can they stop being so cute with their headlines and putting out winter storm watches. So they get expanded west and south and still omit the core metro. This storm with the various model solutions would definitely yield a watch for the Twin Cities at the moment, if it doesn't pan out you can change it to a advisory. I just think their being too cute with waiting and trying to be just perfect.
Looking at the 6Z GFS the low was in Northeast Iowa (Saturday Night 10Pm), the 12Z puts it back in SE Wisconsin at this same time. The newer GFS-FV3 model puts the low in SC Wisconsin.
Hmmm, where are all those people who are always complaining that the metro core never gets any snow? Oh yah, probably still shoveling snow or getting ready for the next round... ;-) This is more typical of the Minnesota winters we experienced when I was a child; only in January, not February. I grew up in the heart of Minneapolis and later as a young adult in St. Paul. Welcome to retro winter... MM ;-)
I found the wall! The weather wall that is, it resides at the border of Ramsey and Hennipen counties. I’m just going to come out and say it, the NWS is out to lunch. All this talk about snow and ice and wind and blizzard conditions which will even occur in those two counties and not a single headline not even an winter weather advisory. The storm literally begins in a few hours with 1-3” of snow overnight then glaze of ice during the daylight hours tomorrow and then the heavier snow arrives tomorrow evening through Sunday morning, blizzard warnings and winter storm warnings brush right up to core, must everyone is forecasting 4-8” for Minneapolis and yet no headlines. I’m sorry but I said it earlier and I’ll say it again the NWS is being way too cute and coy with this. Some may think headlines don’t matter, but they do people take notice and may alter their plans for the sake of safety. These are the largest populated counties let’s not try to be perfect with the forecast and consider the message around safety that a headline can give.
New NAM is out and it is now in line with the GFS with a solid 7”+ for the metro. But — NAM hi-res and Euro are still a little further east. NWS has 3 to 7 on their point forecast and not even an advisory out yet I saw that Novak dropped his metro totals to 3-6.
Gradients are very tight. Glad I don’t have to predict this.
This is a very cinfusing system /36 hours of weather. I do not envy any of the mets trying to figure this one out. I am so confused as to what is happening when and think I will just use the good old rock method. Is it white, wet, dry or covered in ice....
Yes. Winter Storm Watch now for what looks like the northern metro and blizzard warnings southern metro...... starting tonight....... a dynamic and ever-changing situation .... like the 'bomb' situation Mr. Novak spoke of.
I’m turning in my fake Meterologist membership. While the Euro and NAM are showing pretty heaving snow for the metro, the NWS is having no part of it. Love to hear Novak explain what is going on. This is a really odd storm.
You just got me up off the kitchen stool to go take a look and yup, there is snow coming down in my neck of the St. Louis Park woods. I don't think we have an inch, yet, though. I'm near 169/7.
According to this morning's forecast discussion, the NWS has not changed its thinking from the past several days regarding placement of the heavy snow band, except to perhaps push it a bit farther east than where they had it last night. It appears they posted a winter storm watch for the core metro north to St. Cloud due to anticipated strong winds blowing around the snow that is already on the ground. Last night the NWS was calling for 2-4 inches tonight here in the Plymouth/Maple Grove area, and there were no watches, warnings or advisories posted. This morning they have lowered snow totals to 1-3 inches for this area tonight, and posted a winter storm watch. I definitely understand why people are confused about what the NWS is doing. My interpretation is that the NWS is making decisions about warnings, watches, etc. for the core and points north solely based on expected wind speeds, not snowfall amounts, which apparently, if we believe the NWS, are going to be meager at best in the core metro northward.
If you read the NWS discussion they are saying the NAM, Euro and GFS all agree on the placement of the heavy snow band. Question for Novak: Why is the heavy snow band so narrow? Why isn't this a widespread 6+ inch snowfall over all of southern MN and into Wisconsin?
KARE 11 just said winter storm watch for core for high winds and heavy snow potential. NWS says winter storm watch for core for high winds, very low snow totals (1-3). Dave Dahl says expect 5-8 inches in the core, plus strong winds. I don't know who or what to believe! Why is this forecast apparently so difficult for the mets with only about 12 hours before the onset of the storm?! I guess the core's forecast is 1+ inches of snow with strong winds late tonight and tomorrow.
NWS is going (as they should) with short term high resolution models which the TV mets rarely use (except the RAP which technically is not high-resolution although it is short-term). These models are all further SE with the heavy band of snow leaving the core metro with 3-4 inches which is exactly what the NWS is forecasting.
Very strange then, because they don’t really do that with other storms at least not with the ones we have gotten thus February. Not once did I read or hear them mention their going with short term models, I guess that explains the coy and perfection they were going for on holding out on headlines for the core. My west metro forecast for tonight is 1-3” from them they are going to bust very bad on this one!
I just do not understand all this commotion. Even aside the shirt-term models the 6z GFS has about .40 of qpf for KMSP. Snow ratios given the temp profile expected are not going to exceed 12:1 and will be probably between 8:1 to 10:1 which translates into 3-4 inches of snow which is what the NWS is calling for. Not really sure where the confusion is. This is a SE MN storm, not a metro storm. End of the story.
Last few Hrrr runs have really been tightening the gradient. pretty much from mankato ne to se metro and points se jump up near .75 to inch of qpf and anywhere nw of that drops to just a couple tenths at best.
Despite Dave Dahl's forecast, it's looking like if you're in the core metro and father north this is going to be a non-event snowfall-wise. The core and north will get some gusty winds, but that shouldn't cause too much of an issue outside of open areas in Wright, Hennepin and Anoka Counties.
I agree. Total non-event for almost all of the metro. The NWS isn't even confident enough to post 100% chance of snow tonight for the western side of the inner core loop. They are predicting 80% earlier tonight and 60% later tonight. They are only predicting 1 to possibly 3 inches anyway. In contrast, Rochester has a 100% chance of 8-12 inches of snow.
Well, it is not going to be a dud. Blizzard warnings all over the place, a foot of snow as close to the metro as Rochester, and incredible winds does not equal a dud. Just LOVE this weather pattern we have been in. Bring it!!
Well I'm buying that the core metro will be lucky to get an inch. The winter weather advisory calls for an inch, possibly two in Hennepin County. Someone better let Dave Dahl know!
It’s a wait and see game now to see who’s right, Dahl or NWS. Watch radar and eat popcorn time! Radar is lighting up, snow moving due north on I35 currently,, let’s see what transpires.
Sam on Channel 5 just said tonight brings about 2.5 in Plymouth to 5.1 in Bloomington per his models. That's one tight gradient. Time will tell, though it will be difficult to measure with the wind blowing it all around, right?
As a snow and snowstorm fan it is really hard to watch a raging blizzard that is practically on my doorstep, while not a flake has fallen at my house here on the west side of the metro. I'm not expecting much to fall here either. Being on the outside looking in is not fun, especially when the storm is so close I can almost touch it. Location, location, location...
I believe Joel was talking about the rarity of a bombogensis cyclone that’s happening on our doorstep but missing the core, these storms are rare for these areas. He’s not talking about actual snowfall which we have seen many times this month.
Absolute blockbuster storm here in Red Wing. We had a huge music festival in town this weekend and hundreds are still trudging through the snow to their hotels on the sidewalks as roads are nearly impassible. I would estimate 8ish inches now at 1:00AM, with another few hours yet to go. Will see tomorrow what they plan to do with all this extra snow... the snowbanks are already crazy high as is.
MNPLOWCO will you be doing measurements this morning? If so, thank you in advance. I'm going to try and get some shoveling done before it all blows around even more.
One trained observer in Richfield reports 3.1 inches new snow; New Prague 6.5; Rochester: 11.0 new inches. https://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/ListDailyPrecipReports.aspx
State of emergency declared for ROCHESTER. 58 mph winds. State patrol and plows even getting stuck. All major highways into and out of city are closed. Mayo employees having trouble getting to work Insane
Measurements this morning were very interesting and especially through the afternoon as some of the areas with plow we're blowing clean of snow and concrete was visible and others were drifted 2 and 3 feet high. Too many variables on the same lot to make a reasonable measurement with all the wind. So today my measurements would have been meaningless. Thanks for asking though. And we did plow full routes today. Estimations of an inch and a half to 2-inch in general but those are not exact taped measurements.
I totally understand. I went with the newscasts and CoCoRaHS network measurements. I think the airport got 3.5 (who knows how THEY get an accurate measure, eh?) Thanks for all your plowing and measuring. What a busy winter for you. Let's see what Tuesday brings as we wind down this month.
Keep bringing the snow! This has been a winter fan's dream February (at least for Minnesota)! It's snowing lightly but steadily in Minnetonka right now.
We live in a constant snow globe in a metro area where it never snows (or so they have said)! This is like living the dream times two!! From pretty snow (like today) to incredible snow and wind (like this past weekend) to everything in between, it has been awesome. The pattern is so conducive for snow that snow develops out of nowhere sometimes. (Like today) Couldn't ask for a better past 4-5 weeks to be a snow lover. (Other than the metro missing the direct hit from the past weekend.)
Now....on the next snow events. Any need for a new thread? Or at least for some comments related to the upcoming snow events. Bring it! I want to hear all of it!!
After this month the dream is now a nightmare. The roads are all ice compacted down here. Schools were called off yesterday for the 9th day in the last 30! 9 DAYS! The snow is so high and every intersection presents a blind spot. All the side roads are one lane basically because there is no where to put the snow.
The Friday system has exhibited a lot of inconsistency in recent days within the guidance. The overall trend today has been stronger and snowier. GEFS plumes still show substantial spread, ranging from 0.04 to 0.45" of QPF, but there is some clustering around 0.20". EPS is wetter with about 0.30" and the 12Z ECMWF is wettest of all guidance at 0.40". Wind should be light and there will be a deep layer of lift throughout the mid levels so 15-20:1 snow ratios aren`t out of the question. Depending how the wave evolves and if it can become even more negatively tilted building on the trend today, then we may see some banding and hefty snow rates as well. Current forecast calls for between 0.20-0.25" QPF, which could be conservative but is within the median of the guidance. The aforementioned snow ratios would fluff that up into 3 to 5 inches.
Record cold air is set to arrive following the departure of that system beginning Saturday. Seeing that we are struggling to reach 10 today, I don`t see how we`re going to make it above zero Sunday and maybe Monday with the quality of the airmass. 925 mb temps are about -18C today which matches well with our upper single digits. By Sunday afternoon they drop to -25C, which should be about -3F at the surface and around 35 degrees below normal. The atmosphere remains very cold but slowly moderates Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows in the teens and maybe low 20s below zero are likely.
You could almost guarantee another round of school closings, for either snow on Friday(if the heavier solutions verify) AND/OR the cold on Monday!
Golden Valley at this time at Louisiana and 394 the collective snow depth including yesterday and what has fallen thus far is at 2.6 in on the lots. Snow is continuing to fall at a moderate rate we've gotten 1.6 in since 10 last night. Taped
Thank you. "Can't wait to go shovel"...... sigh. My little NOAA radio says 6+ inches Friday? #speechless... but it's a new month, then. Maybe Bill will start a "March Snow Madness" thread. Thanks again for the measurements, MNPLOWCO. Happy Plowing.
Yes. But it doesn't have 'inches' on it, yet, but it has the metro in the 'moderate/pay attention' area ... and he mentions 'overachieving' for the weather maker. Dave Dahl just predicted 4-6 inches through the metro including we in the western suburbs. He was too high with the past storm, but if it mirrors the potential Mr. Novak sees... and what people above are mentioning, then some decent totals appear possible. Yes, Novak posted it at 9 a.m. this morning, but again, no inches on it, yet.
Although most scoffed at my comments earlier this winter re: placement of squirrel nests and cold weather, I will continue to study them in future winters. While we started out mild and while NOAA predicted a warmer winter than normal, we have been running very below normal for quite some time now, and may even break a record low or two this coming weekend. One met on t.v. just said we are 'ridiculously' low temperature-wise. New thread for the Friday snow event?? Thank you in advance.
Well! I have been working in Minneapolis for nearly 5 years. However, this year is really bad. This morning they have lowered snow totals to 1-3 inches for this area tonight, and posted a winter storm watch. I definitely understand why people are confused about what the NWS is doing.
Can’t wait for the video, this one looks complicated and it will be moving quickly. NWS is talking about the differences in the models.
ReplyDeleteMr. Novak posted about an hour ago that blizzard potential is growing "from MSP south & east later SAT into SUN AM" ... yes, a video will be interesting.
ReplyDeleteNew Euro pushes further NW. Getting closer and more interesting.
ReplyDeleteGreat video, Mr. Novak. Thanks for the education on every storm.
ReplyDeleteI second the great video! Very informative! It's on Novak's FB page. Really hope there is shift towards MSP. May as well go for the all time record!
DeleteAnother great video! Honestly if we get a foot down here in Roch I don't know where I can put it!
ReplyDeleteI agree...great video, and it's going to be VERY exciting to track where that heavy axis of snow sets up. I am personally hoping for another 50 mile jog to the NW so I get to see it!
ReplyDeleteThank you Novak!
Models for the most part continue to move NW, the latest GFSV3 has heavy snow for all of the Metro now. 4-8 on the NW and 8-12 on the SE side. Will be a fun storm to watch as it unfolds over the next 48-60 hours!
ReplyDeleteWould snow falling Friday night be considered a separate event from the main event Saturday night/Sunday?
ReplyDeleteThat is a great question Joel... I was wondering the same thing because it looks like the gap between the two events is shrinking.
DeleteIt would seem that way Joel, most outlets going with 1-3” for Friday night. Add then Saturday’s numbers and then Tuesday’s and I think we will be very very close to be living thru the all time snowiest month on record at MSP. 46.9”(November 91) is the number to beat, we are at 31.7”. To me this is very attainable and to think we might do it in a month that has only 28 days as compared to others that have 30 or 31.
DeleteGO BIG OR GO HOME!!!!
Took the words out of my mouth/thoughts bigdaddy. If history repeats, yup, the Halloween Blizzard revisited. Dave Dahl just predicted 6-8 inches for the metro and if the storm wobbles more towards us...... who knows. We aren't even in the watch area, 'yet'.....
DeleteDave Dahl just said 6-8" and we aren't even in the storm watch!!! Holy SNOW.
ReplyDeleteDave likes to be sensational, if you ask me.
DeleteThe last GFS nudged it back SW a bit and the NAM continues to show dry air pumping into it. The NAM is really the outlier. The GFS and Euro moving it slightly each run makes sense, the NAM is really odd (low QPF) and I'd love to hear Novak's take on it. NWS is also throwing in some potential freezing rain.
ReplyDeleteLook forward to the video. Enjoyed the video Novak did earlier today. Bill and Tom thank you again for doing these.
Ian L is going with 'just' 2-4 inches metro...... I remember 'the olden days' when the forecasters got graded on their predictions. Now I've got to try and see how KARE and 'CCO come out with their predictions tonight, and we'll have a metro line-up of possibilities. I still put my bets on Novak's thoughts/video.
ReplyDeleteYep, that was the goal in the good ol' days ... before I realized how time consuming it was. :-)
DeleteFinal post from me today: Belinda (KARE) and Chris ('CCO) are not predicting, yet. They will only say 1-3 inches by Saturday morning, the break in snow action, and then the possibility for 'something big' on Sunday without totals attached until they see more models. So there we have it. I wonder if I will wake up and see the storm watch including the metro area, too. As PWL says, 'Bring it.'
ReplyDelete18z Euro made a very nice adjustment Nw. From metro south to albert lea in the core of the storm now
ReplyDeleteWhere can one see the 18Z euro as all the sites I use don't show this run?
Deleteyou need government sites or a paid subsription site...weathermodels.com is welllll worth the money. A weather genuious created it. His name is Ryan Maue. A very avid meterologist. One of the best i have seen
DeleteThanks Alex. Just subscribed and am learning how to use it. F5 seems to have easier to read maps but weather models has a ton more data. I see what you said about the Euro. The NAM is coming in now and remains a little odd but has increased metro totals.
DeleteQuick video planned with the good snow doctor at 8 bells....
ReplyDeleteCan you ask him why not even 24 hours ago he mentioned bust for this weekends storm now he is mentioning blizzard. Bust to Blizzard in 24 hours!
ReplyDeleteTim you need to learn how to read. He said the bust POTENTIAL is high. He never called it a bust....SMH. I have seen several people say it like this
ReplyDeleteI know how to read, insulting much!! Did I say he said he called it a bust? I said he mentioned bust, usually Novak is pretty even kneel he doesn’t lurch on every model run but when he mentioned bust all models had moved the snow out of all of Minnesota then when he mentioned blizzard models were bringing it back into Minnesota.
DeleteSorry Tim didnt mean to sound that offensive. I apoligize for that haha. Most models did swing hard back nw today like the gem and Ukmet. That nam though i tell ya
DeleteVideo link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1tPmFyQKZs
ReplyDeleteImpressive amounts of snow in Arizona as the storm really starts to get its act together over the next 24-36 hours! Insane snow totals from NWS in Flagstaff, https://twitter.com/NWSFlagstaff/status/1098854375471136769
ReplyDeleteSeriously NWS!! Can they stop being so cute with their headlines and putting out winter storm watches. So they get expanded west and south and still omit the core metro. This storm with the various model solutions would definitely yield a watch for the Twin Cities at the moment, if it doesn't pan out you can change it to a advisory. I just think their being too cute with waiting and trying to be just perfect.
ReplyDeleteNAM looks to be on board now, NW jog once again
ReplyDeleteDid the GFS move Northwest?
ReplyDeleteWhat does the Euro say?
GFS looks like it took a jump to the NW with the 6z run this morning.
Deletehttp://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=gfs&run=06&fhr=16&field=ptype
The heaviest snow at the 45 hour mark sets up about 40-50 miles north of where it was at the 18z run last night. Shown in the link below:
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=gfs&run=18&fhr=20&field=ptype
It will be interesting to see if the trend continues when the 12z comes out in a little while!
Looking at the 6Z GFS the low was in Northeast Iowa (Saturday Night 10Pm), the 12Z puts it back in SE Wisconsin at this same time. The newer GFS-FV3 model puts the low in SC Wisconsin.
ReplyDeleteWhy is the ukmet and gem mmmk moving back se as well as a few cam models...here we go with more uncertainty. Come on euro
ReplyDeleteThe 12Z Euro doesn't change much. Thee low from sc Kansas to SW iowa up to about GB Wisconsin
ReplyDeleteIf anything (the 12Z Euro) the heaviest snow even moves slightly south east.
ReplyDelete12z euro tamed the heaviest rates and shifted se slightly but would still put a warning where nws put watch out yesterday
ReplyDeleteTrue. Yet the 12Z GFS, GFS-FV3, GDPS, NAM runs didn't change much
DeleteHmmm, where are all those people who are always complaining that the metro core never gets any snow? Oh yah, probably still shoveling snow or getting ready for the next round... ;-)
ReplyDeleteThis is more typical of the Minnesota winters we experienced when I was a child; only in January, not February. I grew up in the heart of Minneapolis and later as a young adult in St. Paul. Welcome to retro winter... MM ;-)
Exactly. The good old days, except I don't remember the freezing rain/drizzle. I like your term: 'retro winter'.........
DeleteReally not excited about the ice/ freezing rain in the forecast for the metro.
ReplyDeleteI know there’s a sharp snow gradient, but seriously NWS...not even an Advisory for the metro?! And only one county from a Blizzard Warning?!
ReplyDelete(Please just read this as me wishing I was in a Blizzard Warning!)
Three of the main 7 counties are in the blizzard warning. MSP counties get about one BW every 20-30 years. North of there, not as much wind expected.
DeleteI am surprised, however, that no advisories are up yet, especially with the risk of minor icing.
Dave Dahl is sticking with his 6-8 inches metro. He says 4-8 in the afternoon tomorrow when NWS is saying 2-4. Call me confused.
ReplyDeleteOn Kare 11's 5pm broadcast, they had 1-3 inches of accumulation across the metro by Saturday morning.
ReplyDeleteWhat did the predict for the 'second round' Saturday late afternoon/night? Thanks for the info.
DeleteChris S 'CCO is saying 3-5 inches tomorrow pm and 1-3 inches tonight Twin Cities metro. So yeah, 4-8 just like Mr. Dahl is predicting.
ReplyDeleteI found the wall! The weather wall that is, it resides at the border of Ramsey and Hennipen counties. I’m just going to come out and say it, the NWS is out to lunch. All this talk about snow and ice and wind and blizzard conditions which will even occur in those two counties and not a single headline not even an winter weather advisory. The storm literally begins in a few hours with 1-3” of snow overnight then glaze of ice during the daylight hours tomorrow and then the heavier snow arrives tomorrow evening through Sunday morning, blizzard warnings and winter storm warnings brush right up to core, must everyone is forecasting 4-8” for Minneapolis and yet no headlines. I’m sorry but I said it earlier and I’ll say it again the NWS is being way too cute and coy with this. Some may think headlines don’t matter, but they do people take notice and may alter their plans for the sake of safety. These are the largest populated counties let’s not try to be perfect with the forecast and consider the message around safety that a headline can give.
ReplyDeleteSo tonight’s snow is a miss/bust! Don’t believe me? Look at the radar, can you spot the doughnut?
ReplyDeleteYes, I see a 'doughnut' right now.... so it won't fill in? I am here to learn, so I'm here to learn why the 'doughnut' is there.
DeleteNew NAM is out and it is now in line with the GFS with a solid 7”+ for the metro. But — NAM hi-res and Euro are still a little further east. NWS has 3 to 7 on their point forecast and not even an advisory out yet I saw that Novak dropped his metro totals to 3-6.
ReplyDeleteGradients are very tight. Glad I don’t have to predict this.
Did Novak drop the totals because of the 'doughnut' that Ed is writing about?
DeleteI would aim low for storm totals the models are accounting for tonight’s snow as well which by the looks of things is a miss!
ReplyDeleteThis is a very cinfusing system /36 hours of weather. I do not envy any of the mets trying to figure this one out. I am so confused as to what is happening when and think I will just use the good old rock method. Is it white, wet, dry or covered in ice....
ReplyDelete06Z NAM12k and NAM3k just took a significant shift NW last minute. If GFS verifies I would expect warnings going out in the eastern side of the metro.
ReplyDeleteYes. Winter Storm Watch now for what looks like the northern metro and blizzard warnings southern metro...... starting tonight....... a dynamic and ever-changing situation .... like the 'bomb' situation Mr. Novak spoke of.
DeleteNam model forgot to take its meds I’m thinking
ReplyDeleteNAM has appeared to be drunk throughout this storm. That would indicate some type of end case that it hasn’t seen - the bomb that Novak talked about?
Delete0.3 - 0.4 inches of snow (heavy dusting) in Minnetonka at 7 and 101 at this time.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the updates as always.
DeleteI’m turning in my fake Meterologist membership. While the Euro and NAM are showing pretty heaving snow for the metro, the NWS is having no part of it. Love to hear Novak explain what is going on. This is a really odd storm.
ReplyDelete0.9 inch Eden prairie at 212 and prairie center Dr. Heavy snow coming down at this time.
ReplyDeleteEasily 2" here in St.Louis Park and coming down really hard at the moment!
ReplyDeleteYou just got me up off the kitchen stool to go take a look and yup, there is snow coming down in my neck of the St. Louis Park woods. I don't think we have an inch, yet, though. I'm near 169/7.
Delete1.4 in Minnetonka at 7 and Williston Rd. Taped at this time.
ReplyDelete1.4 Hopkins Main street taped
ReplyDeleteAccording to this morning's forecast discussion, the NWS has not changed its thinking from the past several days regarding placement of the heavy snow band, except to perhaps push it a bit farther east than where they had it last night. It appears they posted a winter storm watch for the core metro north to St. Cloud due to anticipated strong winds blowing around the snow that is already on the ground. Last night the NWS was calling for 2-4 inches tonight here in the Plymouth/Maple Grove area, and there were no watches, warnings or advisories posted. This morning they have lowered snow totals to 1-3 inches for this area tonight, and posted a winter storm watch. I definitely understand why people are confused about what the NWS is doing. My interpretation is that the NWS is making decisions about warnings, watches, etc. for the core and points north solely based on expected wind speeds, not snowfall amounts, which apparently, if we believe the NWS, are going to be meager at best in the core metro northward.
ReplyDeleteIf you read the NWS discussion they are saying the NAM, Euro and GFS all agree on the placement of the heavy snow band. Question for Novak: Why is the heavy snow band so narrow? Why isn't this a widespread 6+ inch snowfall over all of southern MN and into Wisconsin?
ReplyDeleteI was wondering that myself. This appears to be a small but intense storm with a large wind field.
DeleteKARE 11 just said winter storm watch for core for high winds and heavy snow potential. NWS says winter storm watch for core for high winds, very low snow totals (1-3). Dave Dahl says expect 5-8 inches in the core, plus strong winds. I don't know who or what to believe! Why is this forecast apparently so difficult for the mets with only about 12 hours before the onset of the storm?! I guess the core's forecast is 1+ inches of snow with strong winds late tonight and tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteJonathan Yuhas on Ch5 said 4-8" for the metro overnight tonight. Something's not jiving between the NWS and the local mets.
DeleteJY also noted 65mph winds tomorrow!
NWS is going (as they should) with short term high resolution models which the TV mets rarely use (except the RAP which technically is not high-resolution although it is short-term). These models are all further SE with the heavy band of snow leaving the core metro with 3-4 inches which is exactly what the NWS is forecasting.
ReplyDeleteVery strange then, because they don’t really do that with other storms at least not with the ones we have gotten thus February. Not once did I read or hear them mention their going with short term models, I guess that explains the coy and perfection they were going for on holding out on headlines for the core. My west metro forecast for tonight is 1-3” from them they are going to bust very bad on this one!
DeleteI just do not understand all this commotion.
ReplyDeleteEven aside the shirt-term models the 6z GFS has about .40 of qpf for KMSP.
Snow ratios given the temp profile expected are not going to exceed 12:1 and will be probably between 8:1 to 10:1 which translates into 3-4 inches of snow which is what the NWS is calling for.
Not really sure where the confusion is. This is a SE MN storm, not a metro storm. End of the story.
Last few Hrrr runs have really been tightening the gradient. pretty much from mankato ne to se metro and points se jump up near .75 to inch of qpf and anywhere nw of that drops to just a couple tenths at best.
ReplyDeleteDespite Dave Dahl's forecast, it's looking like if you're in the core metro and father north this is going to be a non-event snowfall-wise. The core and north will get some gusty winds, but that shouldn't cause too much of an issue outside of open areas in Wright, Hennepin and Anoka Counties.
ReplyDeleteI agree. Total non-event for almost all of the metro. The NWS isn't even confident enough to post 100% chance of snow tonight for the western side of the inner core loop. They are predicting 80% earlier tonight and 60% later tonight. They are only predicting 1 to possibly 3 inches anyway. In contrast, Rochester has a 100% chance of 8-12 inches of snow.
ReplyDeleteMan, if only someone had said this would be a dud from like 4 days out... Oh wait.
ReplyDeleteWell, it is not going to be a dud. Blizzard warnings all over the place, a foot of snow as close to the metro as Rochester, and incredible winds does not equal a dud. Just LOVE this weather pattern we have been in. Bring it!!
ReplyDeleteNovak, you buying into the HRRR last few runs (19, 20z) ? You think Rochester really could get 15 inches?
ReplyDeleteWell I'm buying that the core metro will be lucky to get an inch. The winter weather advisory calls for an inch, possibly two in Hennepin County. Someone better let Dave Dahl know!
ReplyDeleteGet in your car. Drive south 30-50 miles. Rent a hotel room. And live through it.
DeleteIt’s a wait and see game now to see who’s right, Dahl or NWS. Watch radar and eat popcorn time! Radar is lighting up, snow moving due north on I35 currently,, let’s see what transpires.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely!
DeleteSam on Channel 5 just said tonight brings about 2.5 in Plymouth to 5.1 in Bloomington per his models. That's one tight gradient. Time will tell, though it will be difficult to measure with the wind blowing it all around, right?
ReplyDeleteNice split on radar for the metro. Just amazing. Will we (metro) get.......nothing?
ReplyDeleteAs a snow and snowstorm fan it is really hard to watch a raging blizzard that is practically on my doorstep, while not a flake has fallen at my house here on the west side of the metro. I'm not expecting much to fall here either. Being on the outside looking in is not fun, especially when the storm is so close I can almost touch it. Location, location, location...
ReplyDeleteJust went out to a local park down here and it was absolutely crazy. And the wind isn't even really blowing yet.
ReplyDeleteSuch a beautiful storm. They’re so rare and even rarer still to hit the metro core.
ReplyDeleteSo close yet so far away.
Yes, so rare. All eight of them this month that hit the metro. So rare.
DeleteRemember, it never snows in the Twin Cities anymore. Not a flake.
I believe Joel was talking about the rarity of a bombogensis cyclone that’s happening on our doorstep but missing the core, these storms are rare for these areas. He’s not talking about actual snowfall which we have seen many times this month.
DeleteThanks Ed. That is exactly what I meant.
DeleteJust look at that perfect snow shield. Agh! Sad we’re missing out.
Where do you live Joel? It’s snowing pretty good on the west side of MSP(Robbinsdale) right now.
DeleteI’m in Uptown. Snowing well here too.
DeleteWhy is it when everyone opens their mouth and complain then the snow starts to fill in?
ReplyDeleteAbsolute blockbuster storm here in Red Wing. We had a huge music festival in town this weekend and hundreds are still trudging through the snow to their hotels on the sidewalks as roads are nearly impassible. I would estimate 8ish inches now at 1:00AM, with another few hours yet to go. Will see tomorrow what they plan to do with all this extra snow... the snowbanks are already crazy high as is.
ReplyDeleteMNPLOWCO will you be doing measurements this morning? If so, thank you in advance. I'm going to try and get some shoveling done before it all blows around even more.
ReplyDeleteOne trained observer in Richfield reports 3.1 inches new snow; New Prague 6.5; Rochester: 11.0 new inches.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/ListDailyPrecipReports.aspx
State of emergency declared for ROCHESTER. 58 mph winds. State patrol and plows even getting stuck. All major highways into and out of city are closed. Mayo employees having trouble getting to work Insane
ReplyDeleteWow!
DeleteMeasurements this morning were very interesting and especially through the afternoon as some of the areas with plow we're blowing clean of snow and concrete was visible and others were drifted 2 and 3 feet high. Too many variables on the same lot to make a reasonable measurement with all the wind. So today my measurements would have been meaningless. Thanks for asking though. And we did plow full routes today. Estimations of an inch and a half to 2-inch in general but those are not exact taped measurements.
ReplyDeleteI totally understand. I went with the newscasts and CoCoRaHS network measurements. I think the airport got 3.5 (who knows how THEY get an accurate measure, eh?) Thanks for all your plowing and measuring. What a busy winter for you. Let's see what Tuesday brings as we wind down this month.
DeleteGoing for 4th snowiest month of all time today!
ReplyDeleteUnbelievable! I love it.
DeleteI'm kinda WAY OVER the cold, though.
Keep bringing the snow! This has been a winter fan's dream February (at least for Minnesota)! It's snowing lightly but steadily in Minnetonka right now.
ReplyDeleteWe live in a constant snow globe in a metro area where it never snows (or so they have said)! This is like living the dream times two!! From pretty snow (like today) to incredible snow and wind (like this past weekend) to everything in between, it has been awesome. The pattern is so conducive for snow that snow develops out of nowhere sometimes. (Like today) Couldn't ask for a better past 4-5 weeks to be a snow lover. (Other than the metro missing the direct hit from the past weekend.)
ReplyDeleteNow....on the next snow events. Any need for a new thread? Or at least for some comments related to the upcoming snow events. Bring it! I want to hear all of it!!
What I need is for people to STFU about it never snowing in the Twin Cities.
DeleteAfter this month the dream is now a nightmare. The roads are all ice compacted down here. Schools were called off yesterday for the 9th day in the last 30! 9 DAYS! The snow is so high and every intersection presents a blind spot. All the side roads are one lane basically because there is no where to put the snow.
ReplyDelete** *AND LOOK WHATS ON THE HORIZON***
ReplyDeleteThe Friday system has exhibited a lot of inconsistency in recent
days within the guidance. The overall trend today has been
stronger and snowier. GEFS plumes still show substantial spread,
ranging from 0.04 to 0.45" of QPF, but there is some clustering
around 0.20". EPS is wetter with about 0.30" and the 12Z ECMWF is
wettest of all guidance at 0.40". Wind should be light and there
will be a deep layer of lift throughout the mid levels so 15-20:1
snow ratios aren`t out of the question. Depending how the wave
evolves and if it can become even more negatively tilted building
on the trend today, then we may see some banding and hefty snow
rates as well. Current forecast calls for between 0.20-0.25" QPF,
which could be conservative but is within the median of the
guidance. The aforementioned snow ratios would fluff that up into
3 to 5 inches.
Record cold air is set to arrive following the departure of that
system beginning Saturday. Seeing that we are struggling to reach
10 today, I don`t see how we`re going to make it above zero Sunday
and maybe Monday with the quality of the airmass. 925 mb temps are
about -18C today which matches well with our upper single digits.
By Sunday afternoon they drop to -25C, which should be about -3F
at the surface and around 35 degrees below normal. The atmosphere
remains very cold but slowly moderates Monday and Tuesday. Overnight
lows in the teens and maybe low 20s below zero are likely.
You could almost guarantee another round of school closings, for either snow on Friday(if the heavier solutions verify) AND/OR the cold on Monday!
On vacation next week in warmer climes, leaving the frozen hellhole of Minnesota!
ReplyDeleteCAN'T WAIT!!! BRING IT!!!
Golden Valley at this time at Louisiana and 394 the collective snow depth including yesterday and what has fallen thus far is at 2.6 in on the lots. Snow is continuing to fall at a moderate rate we've gotten 1.6 in since 10 last night. Taped
ReplyDelete1.6 inches in Eden prairie at 212 and prairie center Dr. At this time.
ReplyDeleteTaped
ReplyDeleteThank you. "Can't wait to go shovel"...... sigh. My little NOAA radio says 6+ inches Friday? #speechless... but it's a new month, then. Maybe Bill will start a "March Snow Madness" thread. Thanks again for the measurements, MNPLOWCO. Happy Plowing.
ReplyDeleteHaven't seen anything official, but with a 'storm' total yesterday/overnight of 2.7", MSP is at 38.9" for the month.
ReplyDeleteSimply astonishing!!
Looks like it's officially 39.0" for the month. Imagine if the blizzard had hit MSP instead of RST. We'd have broken the all-time record.
DeleteWhat do you all think of Friday’s snow? Bring it.
ReplyDeleteNo.
Deleteno x 2
DeleteMay as well 'bring it' ...... we may set a low temp record a morning or two, too. Keep dancing.
DeleteLatest GFS puts down .27” of precipitation, which with a 15-20:1 ratio would be in the 4-5” range.
ReplyDeleteI’d be entertained by that!!
Flying Cloud forecast went from 2-4" to 3-5" this afternoon.....so trending up at the moment.
DeleteAgreed; Mr. Novak's map (without inches, yet) on FB says there is a "potential to overachieve" which would = more than predicted, right?
DeleteI interpret that to mean it could be more than the upper end of the range.
DeleteYou see a Novak map on Facebook? I don’t see it. Posted today??
ReplyDeleteYes. But it doesn't have 'inches' on it, yet, but it has the metro in the 'moderate/pay attention' area ... and he mentions 'overachieving' for the weather maker. Dave Dahl just predicted 4-6 inches through the metro including we in the western suburbs. He was too high with the past storm, but if it mirrors the potential Mr. Novak sees... and what people above are mentioning, then some decent totals appear possible. Yes, Novak posted it at 9 a.m. this morning, but again, no inches on it, yet.
DeleteP.S. Keep dancing. Your snow dances have produced remarkable results this winter!
DeleteAlthough most scoffed at my comments earlier this winter re: placement of squirrel nests and cold weather, I will continue to study them in future winters. While we started out mild and while NOAA predicted a warmer winter than normal, we have been running very below normal for quite some time now, and may even break a record low or two this coming weekend. One met on t.v. just said we are 'ridiculously' low temperature-wise. New thread for the Friday snow event?? Thank you in advance.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteNew threat for Friday and beyond....
ReplyDeleteThank you! Can't wait to see the discussions and weather that March brings.
DeleteWell! I have been working in Minneapolis for nearly 5 years. However, this year is really bad. This morning they have lowered snow totals to 1-3 inches for this area tonight, and posted a winter storm watch. I definitely understand why people are confused about what the NWS is doing.
ReplyDelete