Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
Sunday, November 24, 2019
A Thanksgiving Week of Snow?
The eyes and ears of Minnesota's weather enthusiasts have perked up. It appears that a busy week is in the offing. The first Winter Storm Watch of the season is up for Tuesday night. How do you see this week's storminess playing out?
Looking at the various models, this appears to be our first official storm. I didn't watch the Novak live video tonight, only thing I am wondering about is cold air. Moisture amounts look strong with the NAM, GFS, and EURO so far. If anything they are increasing.
Oh thank god Bill is back and not a moment too soon! Welcome back Bill, sure wasn’t looking forward to scrolling thru 270+ comments on your last thread.
This sure will be an interesting week weather wise...with so much going on....two snowstorms sandwiched in between a major traveling holiday throw in a major shopping day with Black Friday and top it off with the biggest outdoor Gophers football game to date...I’m thankful for not going anywhere this week and sitting back and enjoying it all. What am also thankful for was Mother Nature giving me one last nice fall weekend of weather so that procrastinators like me was able to clean up all my leaves before winter settled in....14 bags later!
Looking at the models as they come in tonight, they seem to be in good agreement on the large scale features as the system starts to eject out of the rockies. They all have a very strong Ridge setting up over the eastern US as the low ejects out. The western edge of the eastern Ridge is very close to us as the storm starts to lift out. Some models have the storm flattening the Ridge just a bit to fast causing the higher snowfalls to the south and east of the metro. Normally at this far out I would discounting the NAM'S northern bias solution. However at this time I like how it handles the strong Ridge and allows the low to cut up faster than the rest of the models. So going with 3-5" for the NW metro 6 to 8" for the heart of the metro and 3-5" to the SE. Metro.
So happy to see the blog up and going or this next snow season and for what could be our most precipitation-filled year 'ever' since records began. I missed Novak's video, too.... but he has posted a map that somewhat resembles your discussion, randyinchamplin.....4" northern metro all the way through 4-6" heart/up to 8" south metro.... Plymouth Weather Lover is dancing per a post at the end of last April's blog. As he says, 'Bring it,' though what a way to muck up everyone's holiday traveling. Be safe, people, be safe. Oh, and once we get through this first punch, it looks like Friday, Saturday and Sunday could be filled with more white stuff.
Packers lost, fall yard work is finally done, Xmas lights are on the roof, MN Forecaster blog is alive with two potential winter storms sandwiching the best holiday of the year, life is good!
All models look to be in decent to good agreement at this point, but what I find interesting is as we get closer to the storm is the totals continue to increase. I wouldn't be that surprised if places around the Red Wing area pickup a foot of the white stuff. That all depends on banding/thundersnow though.
It's interesting you mention that. I often look at 'time and date' and their 14-day outlook which changes w/computer runs, and they were cranking out 13 inches in the metro on a run last week. I decided the whole world would laugh at me if I posted THAT anywhere for public consumption because it seemed so premature, but it would be something else if someone around the metro area gets that type of snow depth.
Thanks, Bill for getting another thread going! I've been following this group since the dome busting storm in 2010 and would have missed all the comments from the 'regulars' here. Cheers to another season of tracking snow!
NWS is now showing 5-10 on the point forecast for core metro. Looks like they expect is to slow down and continue for a while Wednesday. NAM shows a solid foot and GFS a little over 5”. Euro was closer to the NAM. Really curious how this plays out and if the temps flip below freezing as expected.
Looking at Paul Huttner's Updraft blog, he's showing the HRRR model, which shows the low tracking from Des Moines to LaCrosse.
We've always been told that is the ideal track for heaving snow in the Twin Cities, and I honestly can't remember when the last one was that actually did that.
Hoping not re: losing the usual posters. The weather is pretty quiet, too.... the anticipation is killing me. Lots of school districts are already on late start or cancelled for tomorrow, and Belinda Jensen at KARE 11 just said the snow will be falling at 2 " / hour tonight at times. Looking forward to more people stopping by the blog with their ideas, comments, analysis, etc.
I am waiting. For your comments, thoughts, predications, etc. LOVE this site and need more comment, thoughts, predictions. Did I mention comments, thoughts, predictions?? Bring it!
Keep dancing. Belinda J just said the latest run lowers the totals a tad in the metro.... dance, dance, DANCE. When the U of M has already cancelled classes, it is quite amazing.
A lot of that is timing. They don’t want the weight of thousands of inexperienced travelers trying to get home after classes tomorrow. I’m sure almost all schools in the area that aren’t already closed for the holiday tomorrow will do so.
Belinda on KARE is definitely reducing metro snow totals. She just lowered Crystal to 5 inches. Mr. Novak, what say you? Bill, I am so happy The Minnesota Forecaster is still alive and well!!
Agreed. Update from noaa right before 8 p.m. and they are not backing off their 9-15 inch spread across the metro. I can't wait to look out the window in the darkness of morning to see what's out there around 5 a.m.
HRRR stands for High Resolution Rapid Refresh. It is a model that runs every hour and goes out to 18 hours on each run and then 36 hours at the 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z times. It's main use is for trying to show trends really close to an event. It is notoriously a loose cannon, so trusting it (at least for myself) is a bit iffy. Every once in a while it does score a coupe, but that is to be expected. You can go to Pivotal Weather to find it and many of the other models. That is how I learned a good deal!
I will be shocked if the MSP metro sees widespread 10"+ totals. I'm sticking with the 5"-9" idea from a few days ago. Storm is simply moving too fast. However, there will be some impressive bursts thru the overnight.
Lots of traveling the next several days and I see interesting weather from Friday through Sunday. I need to hear more. Could it be all snow or is it going to be just slop?
Some forecasters are talking sloppy rain Saturday which will make a mess of the snow/turn to ice at night..... so it could be slop. I think we just have to wait and see, but there is lots of all types of precip in the forecast through Sunday. We are sure to break the all-time total season precip record this year. As you say, 'Bring It!'
This weekend's storm is far from being set in stone. GFS vs Euro has the freezing line @ 850mb hundreds of miles apart from each other still! Euro has the freezing line right at MSP while GFS has it near Winnipeg.. Going to be honest I haven't seen such a difference in models this close to the storm. But the good news in the Ensembles are much more in line with Euro thankfully. I think the GFS model is over amplifying the jet stream and the low by a bit.
Since I have moved here or perhaps ever.... I can’t remember a time when one storm finished and hours later another Winter Storm Watch was posted for another incoming system! Good times....Happy White Thanksgiving Eve everyone!! AND Row the boat!
Looking at the totals, NWS did a decent job with the last storm. 9.2” at MSP and 12” at Prior Lake. Dare I say they even beat Novak by a hair. Novak did a nice job of catching that storm early.
On the WSW this early. My guess is the holidays and travel may be part of that. QPF is high with all of the models and it appears to come down to temps. Freezing rain or sleet would be a bad as snow for travel.
Talk about extremes....the storm arrives in earnest tomorrow and the lastest one model(GFS) gives MSP an 1”.....on the other hand another model(GEM)gives MSP 15”. This is why meteorologists get gray hair. Again the storm arrives tomorrow!
Whomever said no storm because of the NAM look again, latest run came in colder and snowier for MSP land. 6-10” for all the metro! Today will be the day the models latch unto a consistent outcome for this storm, the NAM throws the first stone and says colder and snowier let’s see what the other global models have to say here in short while.
'CCO's Mike Lynch was talking this morning about thunderstorms tomorrow!!!!!!! And snow and sleet and ....... I love reading the predictions and analyses here..........It's going to be a wild weekend to be sure in the weather department. Gopher game will be one to remember because of the weather, I think.
12Z models are populating and if you want an all out blizzard/snowstorm then you need to pull for the GEM(to be totally honest it’s been the most consistent model for days) it paints currently 12-18” thru the heart of the metro. 12Z GFS finally is giving us more snow but strictly on the backside of the system when rain changes to snow about 2-4”. Interesting to say the least let’s see what the EURO will say, I speculate if it shows a good hit of snow for the metro you will hear a lot more chirping and buzzing from people because currently most forecasts are playing the wait and see game included our very own Dr. Novak who hasn’t said much here or social media except to say confidence is low, I bet if EURO comes in snowier he will post. Stay tuned go prep your turkey and comeback.
Hoping to see this south tick trend to continue. I feel it is safe to disregard the GFS at this point. That poor model always seems to be off its rocker and only corrects basically at onset of the storm. GEM (Canadian) is a monster (as was mentioned). Over the past few runs the NAM has been increasing amounts a bit due to a reduction in thermal issues, a result of it trending south a bit. As of right now the Euro shows a split right through the metro with the 6 inch snow line. Regardless of what happens there shouldn't be an issue with moisture. Have a great Thanksgiving everyone!
Bring it! This is fun! Really fun. Going right up to the event itself means everything is on the table-not just the turkey and mashed potatoes!! More discussion needed. Bring it!!!
GFS is slowly but surely bringing that low further south. Will be interesting to see if the Canadian model wins out. I usually don't pay much attention to it but I am very impressed with how consistent it has been.
Latest NAM model has shifted even further south now showing nearly all snow for MSP. I'm starting to think the GDPS model is onto something.. Will be looking forward to what the GFS and Euro model show with tonights run.
GFS missed the last storm badly. NAM and Euro were pretty solid and the NAM is sure slowly sliding south. Curious to see the runs midday Friday. Big question - will we see another video?
My husband can’t even make a plan to get to work in the morning with these forecasts! One place says nothing until Friday night, but all snow so look out! Another says freezing drizzle tonight (terrible commute potential) and then rain plus some spitting snow. What a crazy system...and dangerous with all the people traveling and clueless about what to expect.
The 00z model suite updates for MSP: -GDPS(GEM)....12-15” -NAM....6-10” -GFS.....3-6” -EURO(12z)....7-9” Take note the GDPS has pretty much shown this greater snow output for days now to include MSP(most consistent of all the models). Also the GFS has trended south a good deal today whereas it was giving MSP virtually nothing for days now shows up to 6”. The NAM has waffled a lot the last two days but today’s runs has included MSP in the heavier snow band and has increased MSP snow totals on each run to currently about 10”. We wait to see the 00z EURO but the EURO has been pretty much in step with the NAM the last few model runs. What does this all mean? To me not an expert just a novice weather geek but it looks like a much more snowier outcome then what was advertised just 24 hours ago. We shall wait and see what tomorrow brings...
The 00z Euro is south and is a crush job. Showing a lollipop just north of the cities now as opposed to further north in previous runs. Not sure what Kuchera totals are, but 10:1 is showing 9.5 for MSP with higher north, lesser south (only a couple inch difference).
Correct sir! 00z came in further south and increased snowfall now 8-12” metro wide. I see no reason why MSP won’t be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning by morning with all these models showing warning criteria snowfall(6+).
NWS is still not on board for a big snowstorm for the metro. They remain concerned about Saturday rain in the metro. St. Cloud is now under a warning for 8-12 inches.
I just read the NWS forecast discussion from this morning. The tone of the discussion is the NWS seems fairly confident it will rain in the metro Saturday. Bummer! Becker (34 miles north of Maple Grove) appears to be the closest city to the metro under a warning.
Smells like a storm that could have been good, but tracked too far north. Now we just get stuck with a mixed bag of dangerous winter elements instead of plain snow.
Right, the NAM is not bullish on snow for the metro, except some token light snow at the beginning and ending of the event. That sucks! Location, location.
A member on another board brought up that the main feature that is causing chaos is how far north the warm surge in the upper levels is able to push. NWS seems to think north of the cities, but I assume these can be rather difficult to forecast, especially around a metro area like this. I wonder what Dr. Novak's gut feeling is?
Dr. Novak is already on record yesterday saying “rain, some ice” for this storm on social media. So he’s not thinking it will be much of a big deal for the cities.
@Stormgeek, I agree that forecasting the razor's edge thermals must be a real challenge. It's too bad that for us snow fans the metro is on the demarcation line (which appears to be the case more often than not). The latest NAM is showing rain for most of the day tomorrow in the metro. I hope that doesn't occur. What is the name of the other weather board you mentioned? Thanks!
4-12 inches metro warning all the way til Sunday noon.... 'wowzers'...depending on gradient/snow and rain lines/temp.... complicated at best. PWL is doing a great job, and it's still November!!!!!
I don’t mind the snow...I just hope it is warm enough tomorrow afternoon to keep roads relatively drivable so family can make it to our home for the Gopher game.
Novak's map is UP on FB. Tight, TIGHT gradient. Can't wait to see how it all plays out. Well, I can wait, but Mother Nature and Old Man Winter are not waiting to dump this monster of a storm..........
DysonGuy I just checked to make sure I didn't share an 'old' map on FB, and it's dated for this weekend. I wonder why you do not see it. It's in there with his maps. He had one with the regular 'moderate/high/low' the other day, but now today he posted his snow totals. I wonder why you don't see it. Hmmmm. I can't copy/paste/save without his permission, I would wager, and a link won't help for those not on FB. :+(
Yup. I've been chirping about that for a spell.... having a 'Thanksgiving weekend' series of events reminiscent of '91's storm. Novak seems to favor more rain in the metro area with lower snow totals, though....... so the proverbial 'time will tell' is on tap for us all.
GFS shows 16 inches for MSP, GDPS shows 12 inches, Euro 12z showed about 10, still waiting on 0Z run. Nam shows about 10 inches, RGEM shows 10 inches, WRF-ARW, WRF-ARW2, WRF-NMM all show above 10 inches of snow.
Given how difficult the end of last winter was (I personally had to fight off basement flooding for a couple of weeks even though I've never had even a drop of water after nearly 20 years in my place) and how unbelievably wet it was all spring, summer, and fall, I'm pretty much over these record-breaking moisture events.
It feels like the word moderation has left the building when it comes to Minnesota weather nowadays. I hope it's not a sign of things to come, both in the short term, and in the long term.
I hope all of these model runs end up being wrong and the gradient spares the folks in the southern metro.
Get ready for significant periods of SLEET today, especially from the core MSP metro on south. This will produce a sharp SNOW gradient across the metro with the highest totals on the far north side. The majority of the snow in the metro should fall later this evening & overnight. Still leaning towards a 4"-8" snowfall across the metro when all is said & done. I just can't imagine a block-buster with all the mix expected today.
Sorry MSP snowlovers no blockbuster storm totals this weekend for us, even though the 06Z GFS is in exact step with the current 00Z EURO showing 12"+ from MSP on north. NWS has slashed all their numbers pretty much in half now giving the core 4-7" due to the hi-res models and their depiction of more mixing and less snow. Isnt it disappointing when we are ALWAYS told we need model consensus to have high confidence in our snow forecasts, we had/have that right now with the major models of GEM/GFS/EURO all giving MSP 12+" and yet the forecast goes the other way. Do all yourselves a favor dont model hug the rest of the winter season because even when the models we look at most often give us excitement and the storm were looking for, somehow it still doesnt happen. Prediction: next big storm after this will miss MSP just south due to too much dry air.
I feel your pain. Because the models are only one tool of many used by professionals in making their forecast. Many of us weather enthusiasts mostly just focus on the models and a few of their parameters,which in times like this, isn't enough to know the truth.
I respectfully disagree. You don't use long range models on the day of event. You go with the hi-res models as they incorporate and extrapolate radar trends as well as having a better depiction of the atmosphere. This is what also what happens during expected severe weather situation. And hi-res models are actually nailing this storm today. Dry level air above 700mb on top of molst low-levels creating enough instability to give us this bouts of convective heavy sleet.
Agreed - my primary point was -> "Many" of us weather enthusiasts mostly just focus on the models and a "few" of their parameters. IN other words I know I haven't taken the time to know how to best utilize all the models and all the parameters each uses.
Oh so close, oh perhaps too warm. For those of us fondly remembering the great Halloween Blizzard of 1991, look at weather history posted on the Paul Douglas blog re: November 30, 1991: "1991: A storm dumps 14 inches of snow in the Twin Cities in about 12 hours."
I'm definitely not a meteorologist. Can someone explain why there is a winter storm warning posted for the metro? It seems to me that if anything is posted it should be a winter weather advisory, if even that? Thanks!
I still love this storm! Predicting 4-8 with some models showing 8-10. NWS has 4-8 for Plymouth point forecast. I hope no one's undies are in a bundle. If mine are, it is only from dancing and dancing! If this can change over quicker than later, we could get 8-10 out of this thing! That would be awesome with 8+ from the storm on Tuesday night and then this storm just several days later. Bring that!!!
Nothing to love PWL! 2” overnight to scattered sleet/rain all day those far, the radar is weak and very scattered. Unless it gets its act together and more organized precip forms AND goes to snow this has been a disappointment. As of late last night we were told more snow things changed overnight and thus far the warning is a dud
Anyone else feeling like this storm has been a bit disappointing? I see lots of dry air and those bands of snow have been anything but heavy. I think a lot of people up north are going to be disappointed with the snow totals by the end of this.
Worried about you PWL, you need to pace yourself :)
I can’t buy into the HRR or GFS. My money is with the NAM and Euro. I don’t call this a bust, it was just too warm which was always the risk in the metro. Too early to call it for north central MN.
Temperatures wasn't even the issue, dry air was. I mean even if it was cold enough for snow earlier today it most likely would have only added up to an inch or two.
Not even that. In these kind of set-ups, dry air in the dendritic growth zone would have prevented ice nucleation in the clouds even if the whole column was cold enough for snow. Freezing drizzle was the likely result in any case.
Well.. Now that the storm is winding down I think we should take about how bad of a job the models did on the southern end of the storm. The models did not handle the storm very well @ and near MSP. Too much dry air was in place to get anything going after the initial wave of snow. I will say though that the northern side of the storm was handled very well and was spot on.
If you look at the map that Novak released Friday afternoon he pretty much nailed it. Very tight gradients on the southern side and the models had waffled for the southern side. If anyone can come within 50 miles on these storms I am very impressed. Just drove on 35W in south Minneapolis, glaze ice. This storm had plenty of impact. Nice job Novak.
I agree Novak did a very good job on the forecasting. But i'm talking about how the models didn't handle the southern end of the storm as well as I have seen in the past. Regardless a storm that big was bound to throw a curve ball sooner or later.
So what’s on the horizon? Winter weather junkies like me are always peering into the future. One thing is for sure that after Sunday(12/8) we turn much much colder and there are hints of a clipper-train effecting our region, both NWS and KSTP blogs were hinting at that today in their discussions. We shall see, but I bet if you haven’t hung your Christmas lights yet this is the last best week for it!
I'm with bigdaddy: looks like snow IS on the horizon, plus a good shot of bitter cold and then ANOTHER shot of snow mid-week next week??? Mike Lynch on 'CCO said 3-6" of fluffy stuff Sunday night/Monday rush hour morning........Time for a new thread, hopefully, once we get to the weekend?
Well, this is fun! The snow event in here on Sunday night into Monday is getting stronger. The latest NWS discussion indicates the possibility of 4-8 inches! Bring that! Whenever the NWS states that “snow could be heavy at times” in their forecast wording, you know you have potential for more than a few inches. Bring it!!!!
Hoping Bill starts a new thread. Novak has now posted an impact map on FB, and the Twin Cities is on the north side of a 'moderate/anticipate problems' circle. "Bring it" indeed!
Bill lives!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteLooking at the various models, this appears to be our first official storm. I didn't watch the Novak live video tonight, only thing I am wondering about is cold air. Moisture amounts look strong with the NAM, GFS, and EURO so far. If anything they are increasing.
Oh thank god Bill is back and not a moment too soon!
ReplyDeleteWelcome back Bill, sure wasn’t looking forward to scrolling thru 270+ comments on your last thread.
This sure will be an interesting week weather wise...with so much going on....two snowstorms sandwiched in between a major traveling holiday throw in a major shopping day with Black Friday and top it off with the biggest outdoor Gophers football game to date...I’m thankful for not going anywhere this week and sitting back and enjoying it all. What am also thankful for was Mother Nature giving me one last nice fall weekend of weather so that procrastinators like me was able to clean up all my leaves before winter settled in....14 bags later!
Looking at the models as they come in tonight, they seem to be in good agreement on the large scale features as the system starts to eject out of the rockies. They all have a very strong Ridge setting up over the eastern US as the low ejects out. The western edge of the eastern Ridge is very close to us as the storm starts to lift out. Some models have the storm flattening the Ridge just a bit to fast causing the higher snowfalls to the south and east of the metro. Normally at this far out I would discounting the NAM'S northern bias solution. However at this time I like how it handles the strong Ridge and allows the low to cut up faster than the rest of the models. So going with 3-5" for the NW metro 6 to 8" for the heart of the metro and 3-5" to the SE.
ReplyDeleteMetro.
So happy to see the blog up and going or this next snow season and for what could be our most precipitation-filled year 'ever' since records began. I missed Novak's video, too.... but he has posted a map that somewhat resembles your discussion, randyinchamplin.....4" northern metro all the way through 4-6" heart/up to 8" south metro.... Plymouth Weather Lover is dancing per a post at the end of last April's blog. As he says, 'Bring it,' though what a way to muck up everyone's holiday traveling. Be safe, people, be safe. Oh, and once we get through this first punch, it looks like Friday, Saturday and Sunday could be filled with more white stuff.
ReplyDeleteoops: *FOR this next snow season, not 'or'......
DeleteDancing for a foot. A cool foot! Bring it!!
ReplyDeletePackers lost, fall yard work is finally done, Xmas lights are on the roof, MN Forecaster blog is alive with two potential winter storms sandwiching the best holiday of the year, life is good!
ReplyDeleteYou forgot the Gophers! If your a fan of them. Will be fun watching that game in a storm.
DeleteAll models look to be in decent to good agreement at this point, but what I find interesting is as we get closer to the storm is the totals continue to increase. I wouldn't be that surprised if places around the Red Wing area pickup a foot of the white stuff. That all depends on banding/thundersnow though.
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting you mention that. I often look at 'time and date' and their 14-day outlook which changes w/computer runs, and they were cranking out 13 inches in the metro on a run last week. I decided the whole world would laugh at me if I posted THAT anywhere for public consumption because it seemed so premature, but it would be something else if someone around the metro area gets that type of snow depth.
DeleteAh well I mean from a couple days compared to now the totals have been increasing.
Deleteago*
DeleteThanks, Bill for getting another thread going! I've been following this group since the dome busting storm in 2010 and would have missed all the comments from the 'regulars' here. Cheers to another season of tracking snow!
ReplyDeleteWow, since 2010. I'm impressed!
DeleteNWS is now showing 5-10 on the point forecast for core metro. Looks like they expect is to slow down and continue for a while Wednesday. NAM shows a solid foot and GFS a little over 5”. Euro was closer to the NAM. Really curious how this plays out and if the temps flip below freezing as expected.
ReplyDeleteAnd here we go. The first video of the winter. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czopYtH7ivQ&feature=youtu.be
ReplyDeleteNice video guys. I wasn’t even aware of the weekend storm. We may lose PWL early this year!
ReplyDeleteGeezs the nws increasing the totals for the t.c. saying 9-12 now. Let's go
ReplyDeleteThe dance for a "cool foot" of snow has been ongoing and being perfected. Getting tired and it is working!!! Bring it!!
ReplyDeleteLooking at Paul Huttner's Updraft blog, he's showing the HRRR model, which shows the low tracking from Des Moines to LaCrosse.
ReplyDeleteWe've always been told that is the ideal track for heaving snow in the Twin Cities, and I honestly can't remember when the last one was that actually did that.
This could be fun.
Been pretty quiet here, did we lose a bunch of the usual posters?
ReplyDeleteHoping not re: losing the usual posters. The weather is pretty quiet, too.... the anticipation is killing me. Lots of school districts are already on late start or cancelled for tomorrow, and Belinda Jensen at KARE 11 just said the snow will be falling at 2 " / hour tonight at times. Looking forward to more people stopping by the blog with their ideas, comments, analysis, etc.
DeleteI am waiting. For your comments, thoughts, predications, etc. LOVE this site and need more comment, thoughts, predictions. Did I mention comments, thoughts, predictions?? Bring it!
ReplyDeleteKeep dancing. Belinda J just said the latest run lowers the totals a tad in the metro.... dance, dance, DANCE. When the U of M has already cancelled classes, it is quite amazing.
DeleteA lot of that is timing. They don’t want the weight of thousands of inexperienced travelers trying to get home after classes tomorrow. I’m sure almost all schools in the area that aren’t already closed for the holiday tomorrow will do so.
DeleteBelinda on KARE is definitely reducing metro snow totals. She just lowered Crystal to 5 inches. Mr. Novak, what say you? Bill, I am so happy The Minnesota Forecaster is still alive and well!!
ReplyDeleteThat seems rather absurd. NWS might be overdoing it a bit, but 5 inches seems quite low.
DeleteAgreed. Update from noaa right before 8 p.m. and they are not backing off their 9-15 inch spread across the metro. I can't wait to look out the window in the darkness of morning to see what's out there around 5 a.m.
DeletePut me down for 7.6” total by noon tomorrow at MSP. I’m still wondering about temps being a tad too warm.
ReplyDeleteNote I am an amateur and most likely will be wrong!
Novak says he's going to be live on FB at 8 p.m. to discuss this storm.......
ReplyDeleteHRRR going 6-7 area wide if I am reading correctly.
ReplyDeleteWhat is the HRRR? Learning as I go. 7:53 p.m. noaa update totals are now down to '5-11 inches' through the morning.
DeleteHRRR stands for High Resolution Rapid Refresh. It is a model that runs every hour and goes out to 18 hours on each run and then 36 hours at the 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z times. It's main use is for trying to show trends really close to an event. It is notoriously a loose cannon, so trusting it (at least for myself) is a bit iffy. Every once in a while it does score a coupe, but that is to be expected. You can go to Pivotal Weather to find it and many of the other models. That is how I learned a good deal!
DeleteThank you, Stormgeek. I appreciate the explanation/lesson.
DeleteFinally snowing in SW Minneapolis!
ReplyDeleteI will be shocked if the MSP metro sees widespread 10"+ totals. I'm sticking with the 5"-9" idea from a few days ago. Storm is simply moving too fast. However, there will be some impressive bursts thru the overnight.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update! Much appreciated.
DeleteAwesome storm! Just awesome!
ReplyDeleteLots of traveling the next several days and I see interesting weather from Friday through Sunday. I need to hear more. Could it be all snow or is it going to be just slop?
Some forecasters are talking sloppy rain Saturday which will make a mess of the snow/turn to ice at night..... so it could be slop. I think we just have to wait and see, but there is lots of all types of precip in the forecast through Sunday. We are sure to break the all-time total season precip record this year. As you say, 'Bring It!'
DeleteThis weekend's storm is far from being set in stone. GFS vs Euro has the freezing line @ 850mb hundreds of miles apart from each other still! Euro has the freezing line right at MSP while GFS has it near Winnipeg.. Going to be honest I haven't seen such a difference in models this close to the storm. But the good news in the Ensembles are much more in line with Euro thankfully. I think the GFS model is over amplifying the jet stream and the low by a bit.
ReplyDeleteWinter storm watch just issued for Friday.
ReplyDeleteSince I have moved here or perhaps ever.... I can’t remember a time when one storm finished and hours later another Winter Storm Watch was posted for another incoming system! Good times....Happy White Thanksgiving Eve everyone!! AND Row the boat!
ReplyDeleteI wonder if part of that is because they seem to be earlier in issuing watches these days.
DeleteNot sure about that WSW issued by the NWS. A bit surprising especially given high bust potential & amount of uncertainty.
ReplyDeleteReminds me of 1991....... amazing to have another WSW issued so soon. "Bring It"
ReplyDeleteLatest 18Z NAM gives MSP only 2-3” of snow this weekend hardly back to back snowstorms in my opinion!
ReplyDeleteYup, MSP was wayyyyy too early to pull the trigger it looks like. Things sliding north.
DeleteLooking at the totals, NWS did a decent job with the last storm. 9.2” at MSP and 12” at Prior Lake. Dare I say they even beat Novak by a hair. Novak did a nice job of catching that storm early.
ReplyDeleteOn the WSW this early. My guess is the holidays and travel may be part of that. QPF is high with all of the models and it appears to come down to temps. Freezing rain or sleet would be a bad as snow for travel.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone
Talk about extremes....the storm arrives in earnest tomorrow and the lastest one model(GFS) gives MSP an 1”.....on the other hand another model(GEM)gives MSP 15”. This is why meteorologists get gray hair. Again the storm arrives tomorrow!
ReplyDeleteWhomever said no storm because of the NAM look again, latest run came in colder and snowier for MSP land. 6-10” for all the metro!
ReplyDeleteToday will be the day the models latch unto a consistent outcome for this storm, the NAM throws the first stone and says colder and snowier let’s see what the other global models have to say here in short while.
'CCO's Mike Lynch was talking this morning about thunderstorms tomorrow!!!!!!! And snow and sleet and ....... I love reading the predictions and analyses here..........It's going to be a wild weekend to be sure in the weather department. Gopher game will be one to remember because of the weather, I think.
ReplyDelete12Z models are populating and if you want an all out blizzard/snowstorm then you need to pull for the GEM(to be totally honest it’s been the most consistent model for days) it paints currently 12-18” thru the heart of the metro.
ReplyDelete12Z GFS finally is giving us more snow but strictly on the backside of the system when rain changes to snow about 2-4”. Interesting to say the least let’s see what the EURO will say, I speculate if it shows a good hit of snow for the metro you will hear a lot more chirping and buzzing from people because currently most forecasts are playing the wait and see game included our very own Dr. Novak who hasn’t said much here or social media except to say confidence is low, I bet if EURO comes in snowier he will post. Stay tuned go prep your turkey and comeback.
Hoping to see this south tick trend to continue. I feel it is safe to disregard the GFS at this point. That poor model always seems to be off its rocker and only corrects basically at onset of the storm. GEM (Canadian) is a monster (as was mentioned). Over the past few runs the NAM has been increasing amounts a bit due to a reduction in thermal issues, a result of it trending south a bit. As of right now the Euro shows a split right through the metro with the 6 inch snow line. Regardless of what happens there shouldn't be an issue with moisture. Have a great Thanksgiving everyone!
ReplyDeleteBring it! This is fun! Really fun. Going right up to the event itself means everything is on the table-not just the turkey and mashed potatoes!! More discussion needed. Bring it!!!
ReplyDeleteGFS is slowly but surely bringing that low further south. Will be interesting to see if the Canadian model wins out. I usually don't pay much attention to it but I am very impressed with how consistent it has been.
ReplyDeleteLatest NAM model has shifted even further south now showing nearly all snow for MSP. I'm starting to think the GDPS model is onto something.. Will be looking forward to what the GFS and Euro model show with tonights run.
ReplyDeleteWeather.com has flipped to mostly all snow event for Hennipen county, 10-18” Friday night into Sunday. I know it’s a phone app but just saying.....
ReplyDeleteSaw that as well. Kinda strange.
DeleteGFS missed the last storm badly. NAM and Euro were pretty solid and the NAM is sure slowly sliding south. Curious to see the runs midday Friday. Big question - will we see another video?
ReplyDeleteIf I can coordinate a time with Dr. Novak, we shall.
DeleteMan the GDPS is dropping 13 inches in the metro...
ReplyDeleteMy husband can’t even make a plan to get to work in the morning with these forecasts! One place says nothing until Friday night, but all snow so look out! Another says freezing drizzle tonight (terrible commute potential) and then rain plus some spitting snow. What a crazy system...and dangerous with all the people traveling and clueless about what to expect.
ReplyDeleteYeah, this system is a forecasters worst nightmare. Thermal issues, a very strange track, GFS being useless, and a huge travel weekend...
DeleteThe 00z model suite updates for MSP:
ReplyDelete-GDPS(GEM)....12-15”
-NAM....6-10”
-GFS.....3-6”
-EURO(12z)....7-9”
Take note the GDPS has pretty much shown this greater snow output for days now to include MSP(most consistent of all the models). Also the GFS has trended south a good deal today whereas it was giving MSP virtually nothing for days now shows up to 6”. The NAM has waffled a lot the last two days but today’s runs has included MSP in the heavier snow band and has increased MSP snow totals on each run to currently about 10”. We wait to see the 00z EURO but the EURO has been pretty much in step with the NAM the last few model runs.
What does this all mean? To me not an expert just a novice weather geek but it looks like a much more snowier outcome then what was advertised just 24 hours ago. We shall wait and see what tomorrow brings...
The 00z Euro is south and is a crush job. Showing a lollipop just north of the cities now as opposed to further north in previous runs. Not sure what Kuchera totals are, but 10:1 is showing 9.5 for MSP with higher north, lesser south (only a couple inch difference).
DeleteCorrect sir! 00z came in further south and increased snowfall now 8-12” metro wide. I see no reason why MSP won’t be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning by morning with all these models showing warning criteria snowfall(6+).
DeleteNWS is still not on board for a big snowstorm for the metro. They remain concerned about Saturday rain in the metro. St. Cloud is now under a warning for 8-12 inches.
ReplyDeleteI agree. Despite what the latest models are showing, the NWS is calling for a rainy day in the metro tomorrow (Saturday). I hope they are wrong!
ReplyDeleteI just read the NWS forecast discussion from this morning. The tone of the discussion is the NWS seems fairly confident it will rain in the metro Saturday. Bummer! Becker (34 miles north of Maple Grove) appears to be the closest city to the metro under a warning.
ReplyDeleteSmells like a storm that could have been good, but tracked too far north. Now we just get stuck with a mixed bag of dangerous winter elements instead of plain snow.
ReplyDeleteNAM north.
ReplyDeleteRight, the NAM is not bullish on snow for the metro, except some token light snow at the beginning and ending of the event. That sucks! Location, location.
ReplyDeleteA member on another board brought up that the main feature that is causing chaos is how far north the warm surge in the upper levels is able to push. NWS seems to think north of the cities, but I assume these can be rather difficult to forecast, especially around a metro area like this. I wonder what Dr. Novak's gut feeling is?
ReplyDeleteDr. Novak is already on record yesterday saying “rain, some ice” for this storm on social media.
DeleteSo he’s not thinking it will be much of a big deal for the cities.
Ah, interesting. Models are still all over the place. Will have to see what transpires come go time. Looking like a now-cast.
DeleteIs it me or did the gfs just push it further south...showing 8.5 in t.c.
ReplyDeleteFrom my amateur position, having the GFS on your side is more a curse than anything else. ��
Delete@Stormgeek, I agree that forecasting the razor's edge thermals must be a real challenge. It's too bad that for us snow fans the metro is on the demarcation line (which appears to be the case more often than not). The latest NAM is showing rain for most of the day tomorrow in the metro. I hope that doesn't occur. What is the name of the other weather board you mentioned? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteIt is called theweatherforums. There is a section that covers the whole center part of the country.
DeleteThe NWS is predicting a low of 34 degrees tomorrow night in Crystal. Not a good sign for anyone who wants snow.
ReplyDeleteWinter Storm Warning in metro. Upgrade from Watch. Here we go! Bring it!!!
ReplyDeleteEuro moved further south again! I can't believe i'm saying this but the Canadian model is beating them all.
ReplyDeleteKeep the snow dance coming, PWL & the whole MinnesotaForecaster gang!!
ReplyDeleteNovak? Novak? Need Novak.
ReplyDeleteNAM has made another major shift to the south! Pretty much all snow for MSP now.
ReplyDelete4-12 inches metro warning all the way til Sunday noon.... 'wowzers'...depending on gradient/snow and rain lines/temp.... complicated at best. PWL is doing a great job, and it's still November!!!!!
ReplyDeleteI don’t mind the snow...I just hope it is warm enough tomorrow afternoon to keep roads relatively drivable so family can make it to our home for the Gopher game.
ReplyDeletePrayers for a great game and yes, prayers also for your family during their travels.
DeletePrayers for a Gopher win with tons of snow falling on their heads at the same time
DeleteNovak's map is UP on FB. Tight, TIGHT gradient. Can't wait to see how it all plays out. Well, I can wait, but Mother Nature and Old Man Winter are not waiting to dump this monster of a storm..........
ReplyDeleteOdd, I don't see anything since Nov 27.
DeleteDysonGuy I just checked to make sure I didn't share an 'old' map on FB, and it's dated for this weekend. I wonder why you do not see it. It's in there with his maps. He had one with the regular 'moderate/high/low' the other day, but now today he posted his snow totals. I wonder why you don't see it. Hmmmm. I can't copy/paste/save without his permission, I would wager, and a link won't help for those not on FB. :+(
DeleteVery odd. I've checked all day after this post on both my desktop and mobile facebook instances and all the same. Last Post by novak was Novak Weather
DeleteNovember 27 at 6:15 AM ·
Post your SNOW totals here! As of 6am, about 5.5" in sw Rochester. Lots of compaction/melting.
I have noticed the last month that I've not been seeing his latest stuff until days have past. Facebook must be having issues.
I recall with the halloween blizzard they thought the day before it was going to be mostly rain and we know how all that turned out.
ReplyDeleteYup. I've been chirping about that for a spell.... having a 'Thanksgiving weekend' series of events reminiscent of '91's storm. Novak seems to favor more rain in the metro area with lower snow totals, though....... so the proverbial 'time will tell' is on tap for us all.
DeleteGFS is going crazy on totals in the metro.. 16 INCHES!
ReplyDeleteHoly macaroni look at the totals that are being pushed out...I might have to say novak got this one wrong..
ReplyDeleteI want to hear more. What are the totals being pushed out?? About to wet my pants. Bring it!!!
ReplyDeleteSo weird.
DeleteGFS shows 16 inches for MSP, GDPS shows 12 inches, Euro 12z showed about 10, still waiting on 0Z run. Nam shows about 10 inches, RGEM shows 10 inches, WRF-ARW, WRF-ARW2, WRF-NMM all show above 10 inches of snow.
ReplyDeleteYES!!! Dancing, dancing, dancing! Bring it!!!
ReplyDeleteGiven how difficult the end of last winter was (I personally had to fight off basement flooding for a couple of weeks even though I've never had even a drop of water after nearly 20 years in my place) and how unbelievably wet it was all spring, summer, and fall, I'm pretty much over these record-breaking moisture events.
ReplyDeleteIt feels like the word moderation has left the building when it comes to Minnesota weather nowadays. I hope it's not a sign of things to come, both in the short term, and in the long term.
I hope all of these model runs end up being wrong and the gradient spares the folks in the southern metro.
00z EURO goes full beast mode! 12”+ from MSP on north! Enjoy the snow! Enjoy the Gophers!
ReplyDeleteGet ready for significant periods of SLEET today, especially from the core MSP metro on south. This will produce a sharp SNOW gradient across the metro with the highest totals on the far north side. The majority of the snow in the metro should fall later this evening & overnight. Still leaning towards a 4"-8" snowfall across the metro when all is said & done. I just can't imagine a block-buster with all the mix expected today.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update, Mr. Novak. It is much appreciated.
DeleteSorry MSP snowlovers no blockbuster storm totals this weekend for us, even though the 06Z GFS is in exact step with the current 00Z EURO showing 12"+ from MSP on north. NWS has slashed all their numbers pretty much in half now giving the core 4-7" due to the hi-res models and their depiction of more mixing and less snow. Isnt it disappointing when we are ALWAYS told we need model consensus to have high confidence in our snow forecasts, we had/have that right now with the major models of GEM/GFS/EURO all giving MSP 12+" and yet the forecast goes the other way. Do all yourselves a favor dont model hug the rest of the winter season because even when the models we look at most often give us excitement and the storm were looking for, somehow it still doesnt happen. Prediction: next big storm after this will miss MSP just south due to too much dry air.
ReplyDeleteThanks for your analysis.
DeleteYes Sam very good point, it sucks. Why bother tracking all these models for days and then what they predict at game time doesn’t happen.
DeleteI feel your pain. Because the models are only one tool of many used by professionals in making their forecast. Many of us weather enthusiasts mostly just focus on the models and a few of their parameters,which in times like this, isn't enough to know the truth.
DeleteI respectfully disagree. You don't use long range models on the day of event. You go with the hi-res models as they incorporate and extrapolate radar trends as well as having a better depiction of the atmosphere.
DeleteThis is what also what happens during expected severe weather situation.
And hi-res models are actually nailing this storm today.
Dry level air above 700mb on top of molst low-levels creating enough instability to give us this bouts of convective heavy sleet.
Agreed - my primary point was -> "Many" of us weather enthusiasts mostly just focus on the models and a "few" of their parameters. IN other words I know I haven't taken the time to know how to best utilize all the models and all the parameters each uses.
DeleteOh so close, oh perhaps too warm. For those of us fondly remembering the great Halloween Blizzard of 1991, look at weather history posted on the Paul Douglas blog re: November 30, 1991: "1991: A storm dumps 14 inches of snow in the Twin Cities in about 12 hours."
ReplyDeleteI'm definitely not a meteorologist. Can someone explain why there is a winter storm warning posted for the metro? It seems to me that if anything is posted it should be a winter weather advisory, if even that? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteWe are in a winter storm warning for the impending snow tonight at MSP which will be in the range of 4-7 inches.
DeleteI still love this storm! Predicting 4-8 with some models showing 8-10. NWS has 4-8 for Plymouth point forecast. I hope no one's undies are in a bundle. If mine are, it is only from dancing and dancing! If this can change over quicker than later, we could get 8-10 out of this thing! That would be awesome with 8+ from the storm on Tuesday night and then this storm just several days later. Bring that!!!
ReplyDeleteNothing to love PWL! 2” overnight to scattered sleet/rain all day those far, the radar is weak and very scattered. Unless it gets its act together and more organized precip forms AND goes to snow this has been a disappointment. As of late last night we were told more snow things changed overnight and thus far the warning is a dud
DeleteRadar trends show the metro staying out of the dry slot. :)
DeleteRadar trends are weak and not snow!
DeleteAnyone else feeling like this storm has been a bit disappointing? I see lots of dry air and those bands of snow have been anything but heavy. I think a lot of people up north are going to be disappointed with the snow totals by the end of this.
ReplyDeleteDisappointment continues..MSP downgraded to an Advisory 2-5” additional snow possible, what a bummer after how it looked last night!
ReplyDeleteDisappointment kinda like the gophers
ReplyDeleteSeveral of the high res models show between 7-10 inches through tomorrow. Never give up!! Bring it!!!
ReplyDeleteWorried about you PWL, you need to pace yourself :)
ReplyDeleteI can’t buy into the HRR or GFS. My money is with the NAM and Euro. I don’t call this a bust, it was just too warm which was always the risk in the metro. Too early to call it for north central MN.
Temperatures wasn't even the issue, dry air was. I mean even if it was cold enough for snow earlier today it most likely would have only added up to an inch or two.
DeleteNot even that. In these kind of set-ups, dry air in the dendritic growth zone would have prevented ice nucleation in the clouds even if the whole column was cold enough for snow. Freezing drizzle was the likely result in any case.
DeleteWell.. Now that the storm is winding down I think we should take about how bad of a job the models did on the southern end of the storm. The models did not handle the storm very well @ and near MSP. Too much dry air was in place to get anything going after the initial wave of snow. I will say though that the northern side of the storm was handled very well and was spot on.
ReplyDeleteNovak won’t agree with you. Hopefully he chimes in
DeleteIf you look at the map that Novak released Friday afternoon he pretty much nailed it. Very tight gradients on the southern side and the models had waffled for the southern side. If anyone can come within 50 miles on these storms I am very impressed. Just drove on 35W in south Minneapolis, glaze ice. This storm had plenty of impact. Nice job Novak.
DeleteI agree Novak did a very good job on the forecasting. But i'm talking about how the models didn't handle the southern end of the storm as well as I have seen in the past. Regardless a storm that big was bound to throw a curve ball sooner or later.
DeleteSo what’s on the horizon? Winter weather junkies like me are always peering into the future. One thing is for sure that after Sunday(12/8) we turn much much colder and there are hints of a clipper-train effecting our region, both NWS and KSTP blogs were hinting at that today in their discussions. We shall see, but I bet if you haven’t hung your Christmas lights yet this is the last best week for it!
ReplyDeleteMonday's storm is far from a block buster setup but a healthy 2-6 inches of fluffy snow look likely across the metro.
ReplyDeleteI'm with bigdaddy: looks like snow IS on the horizon, plus a good shot of bitter cold and then ANOTHER shot of snow mid-week next week??? Mike Lynch on 'CCO said 3-6" of fluffy stuff Sunday night/Monday rush hour morning........Time for a new thread, hopefully, once we get to the weekend?
ReplyDeleteWell, this is fun! The snow event in here on Sunday night into Monday is getting stronger. The latest NWS discussion indicates the possibility of 4-8 inches! Bring that! Whenever the NWS states that “snow could be heavy at times” in their forecast wording, you know you have potential for more than a few inches. Bring it!!!!
ReplyDeleteHoping Bill starts a new thread. Novak has now posted an impact map on FB, and the Twin Cities is on the north side of a 'moderate/anticipate problems' circle. "Bring it" indeed!
DeleteCreated a new thread for possible storm early next week.
ReplyDelete