Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
Sunday, December 20, 2020
In the Throes of Winter - Where is it?
It seems that some legitimate cold is in the forecast but is "interesting weather" (read: snowstorms) anywhere in sight? And what will the new year hold?
Last minute White Christmas save for the greater Minneapolis area?, well if you believe tonight’s 00Z model runs it looks like it. Every model except for the GFS(funny because till this morning GFS was most bullish/outliner on snow for us)has 2-4” for Wednesday then a deep freeze thru Christmas, so whatever falls will stick around for the holiday. I for one hope it happens, the landscape is boring and Minnesota needs its winter back!
Winter Storm Watches going up! Not for the metro, not yet anyway, but for western and central MN for blizzard conditions, not necessarily for the amount of snow(which currently is in the 1-4" range). Could easily see the those conditions and headlines over to the east on Wednesday and with it being a heavily traveled day I can see the need for more watches...then advisories and/or warnings. We"ll see how this all shakes out over the next two days. But I take we possibly have saved our white christmas.
Believe it or not the EURO is going haywire for the storm, the 06Z drops over a foot for all the metro....not sure I believe it but I’ll be happy with half of that. Paul Douglas hyping the EURO as well. Man we’re overdue, let’s see how it plays out!
Between the 00z and 12z of the GFS, the snow band has shifted more in line with the Euro. It is still a bit northwest with the 6 inch line being in the vicinity of the Anoka and Wright counties. Curious to see what the Euro has to say. Should have a much better handle now as the storm has pulled on shore.
I knew that my dancing would pay off - and it starting to show! I hope this is a big surprise snowstorm and dumps a foot or so. (By surprise I mean to most mets who have just called for an inch or two and haven't added the caveat that the snow totals could go much higher. Novak and a only a few have actually called that out based on the assessment of the dynamics of this thing.)
Keep dancing; as of right now, NOAA has 3-5" for the metro. Wouldn't that be awesome? That's better than a 'coating' that the wind can blow around and away.
It looks like the GFS still has the storm much farther north than the Euro. However, it also appears the GFS is coming more in line with the Euro? Duluth is already forecasting heavy snow with possibly 6+ inches. That also could be due to anticipated lake enhanced snow. The southeast section of MN, including the metro, are the only part of the state not under an advisory or watch. The NWS must still be leaning away from the Euro and towards the GFS, otherwise the metro would be under a watch now too. According to Novak last night, the Euro has the storm moving through eastern Iowa and the GFS has the storm moving through central MN. Here's rooting for the Euro to win!
From the NWS early evening AFD.... If and when confidence increases more with where this band will set up, snowfall totals will need to be increased by another few inches in those locations. If not for running out of time with this update, probably could justify the 00Z guidance enough evidence to increase further right now. The current forecast has the highest totals of 5 to 9 inches forecast from Mankato to the Twin Cities and north along I-35.
Hey all. Sorry I haven't commented in quite some time. Needless to say, it has been busy the last few days & the last 6+ weeks have been snoozers.
Anyway, my only comment tonight is that no weather forecasters should've been surprised by this potential winter storm. Guidance has been showing a massive/impressive trough for several days now. It is a shame that some downplayed this storm up to the last second. IMO, that just shouldn't happen. Granted, this storm could still BUST, but I believe it is better to error on the side of caution rather than simply telling the public nothing is going to happen.
Well, bravo to you who know how to do this forecasting and have your studies/knowledge/credentials about weather. I asked Bill to please put up this new thread, and talk about good timing based on your chatter days ago. NWS now has a winter storm warning for the metro all the way until 6 a.m. tomorrow morning! 6-12 inches for the metro. Amazingly cool timing. "White Christmas"indeed. Because it's going to be a holiday storm, it kind of reminds me of the Halloween Blizzard's first day. Stay safe everyone.
It might not be off the table to see an isolated 15", but above that seems a bit hopeful. It will all depend on how this thing pivots. What does seem like a pretty good probability at this time is at least somewhere between 7"-10" pretty much metrowide
Yes the GFSV16z is from the Total Accumulated Snowfall (Kuchera) parameter. I would say its quite the outlier. Nonetheless for MSP all the other models point to a foot or more based on Kuchera snowfall.
Big fat flakes in west metro(Golden Valley)....rain to snow already. Almost an inch on the ground and the roads are snow covered as well. The roads will be horrible today with each passing hour as the temps get colder and colder.
I’m a bit surprised no blizzard warning for the core metro....there will be blizzard conditions here to but maybe we don’t hit every criteria there is. No matter it’s going to be a hasty day on the roads. But a beautiful White Christmas!
This is an awesome summary, Dyson Guy! Thanks for taking the time to put this together. While I know that we all have access to many of these models, to have it all in one place is awesome.
What is just as awesome is the way the snow is falling - unreal!! I think Plymouth gets 13.5 inches. Bring it!!
This is incredible...a Christmas Miracle, especially given our non-existent winter in December up to this point! All kudos to Novak! He is the only met that I heard predict a big storm. Everyone else, including the NWS, was saying maybe a dusting, possible outside chance of an inch. Dyson Guy, thanks for compiling the latest computer snowfall predictions. I agree that it's very helpful and convenient to have all of that information consolidated into one quick reference point. Here in the Maple Grove/Plymouth area it is a whiteout. The winds are howling, the snow is falling rapidly and the temps are nosediving. Everyone be safe, enjoy the storm and Happy Holidays!
Storm Warning is gone for the metro; now it's a blizzard warning and still predicting 7-13 inches of snow by tomorrow morning. I can't believe it was 47 this morning and going down to -4 tonight. And the winds.... hoping the power grids can stay 'on' and working. I echo all that Schnee Meister says above, especially the everyone be safe, enjoy the storm, and Happy Holidays.
Well, that escalated quickly. Novak and Randy Hill were the only two I spotted putting out the potential for blizzard conditions early on this storm. Let's see what happens but it went from steady rain to couple inches and whiteout in an hour or so.
This is amazing. I went back to read about the Armistice Day Blizzard because Paul Douglas brought it up on local radio this morning....... and they didn't have all the forecasting going on that we have now. It started out a nice balmy day like today. Looking out the window now, I can't believe it nor can I imagine if people were trying to duck hunt or if they had gone out in their regular work shoes with no boots, etc. This blizzard is not something we routinely see. One grandkid has already had her power flicker and internet out in the northern metro.
Its kinda crazy the GFS is going crazy for the 10 day period showing 30 inches in the metro. If this would happen it would remind me of 2 years ago. We didn't really see anything until mid December and then when it started it didn't stop.
Just got home from beating golf balls at X Golf here in Champlin, not surprised to see a rare Blizzard Warning for the core metro....it's nasty out there.
From the 3pm AFD "Main change to this forecast was to push the snowfall forecast toward what we saw from the 12z HREF and HopWRF, with 9" to 12" forecast in the heaviest band from Mankato up through the Twin Cities toward Hinckley. Most models show a band of 1-1.2" of QPF falling along something between a Mankato to Minneapolis line or a Waseca to New Richmond line. Pushing that of QPF into the snow category supports seeing 12"+ of snow, assuming someone can figure out how to measure this wind whipped mess."
I wonder if I should message Bill on FB and ask for a new thread for next week's potential snow dump. What do you all think? If any of you are on FB, you can message him, too, at his MN Forecaster site.
Bill i keep asking novak about you and weather videos and he said he just hasn't been able to hook up with you. If this storm keeps looking big, it would be nice to see you 2 together.
Last minute White Christmas save for the greater Minneapolis area?, well if you believe tonight’s 00Z model runs it looks like it. Every model except for the GFS(funny because till this morning GFS was most bullish/outliner on snow for us)has 2-4” for Wednesday then a deep freeze thru Christmas, so whatever falls will stick around for the holiday. I for one hope it happens, the landscape is boring and Minnesota needs its winter back!
ReplyDeleteThe 12Z ECMWF really cranks it up for SE MN.
ReplyDeletelooks like a white Christmas is coming, Novak on board!
ReplyDeleteAny indication as to what time the snow starts in the metro area?
ReplyDeleteThe stars (and the Christmas star) are aligning. Just in time. It is a Christmas miracle!!! Bring it!
ReplyDeleteI wish that axis of heavy snow would come down out of Canada.
ReplyDeleteWinter Storm Watches going up! Not for the metro, not yet anyway, but for western and central MN for blizzard conditions, not necessarily for the amount of snow(which currently is in the 1-4" range). Could easily see the those conditions and headlines over to the east on Wednesday and with it being a heavily traveled day I can see the need for more watches...then advisories and/or warnings. We"ll see how this all shakes out over the next two days. But I take we possibly have saved our white christmas.
ReplyDeleteBelieve it or not the EURO is going haywire for the storm, the 06Z drops over a foot for all the metro....not sure I believe it but I’ll be happy with half of that. Paul Douglas hyping the EURO as well. Man we’re overdue, let’s see how it plays out!
ReplyDeleteBetween the 00z and 12z of the GFS, the snow band has shifted more in line with the Euro. It is still a bit northwest with the 6 inch line being in the vicinity of the Anoka and Wright counties. Curious to see what the Euro has to say. Should have a much better handle now as the storm has pulled on shore.
ReplyDeleteI knew that my dancing would pay off - and it starting to show! I hope this is a big surprise snowstorm and dumps a foot or so. (By surprise I mean to most mets who have just called for an inch or two and haven't added the caveat that the snow totals could go much higher. Novak and a only a few have actually called that out based on the assessment of the dynamics of this thing.)
ReplyDeleteBring it!
Keep dancing; as of right now, NOAA has 3-5" for the metro. Wouldn't that be awesome? That's better than a 'coating' that the wind can blow around and away.
DeleteIt looks like the GFS still has the storm much farther north than the Euro. However, it also appears the GFS is coming more in line with the Euro? Duluth is already forecasting heavy snow with possibly 6+ inches. That also could be due to anticipated lake enhanced snow. The southeast section of MN, including the metro, are the only part of the state not under an advisory or watch. The NWS must still be leaning away from the Euro and towards the GFS, otherwise the metro would be under a watch now too. According to Novak last night, the Euro has the storm moving through eastern Iowa and the GFS has the storm moving through central MN. Here's rooting for the Euro to win!
ReplyDeleteThere we go....the metro just got our Winter Storm Watch with 3-5” and 50mph winds. With the drifting that should mean 0”-2 feet! I will take it!!
ReplyDeleteOH BOY IS THAT NEW GFS GOLD FOR US
ReplyDeleteLatest Runs:
DeleteMSP--
ECMWF: 5
GDPS: 5
GFS: 6
GFS16: 5
NAM: 3
Blend: 4
RDPS: 4
UKMET: 3.5
GFS: 8
This just keeps getting better and better!! Wetting my pants. Need to buy those diapers - soon! Bring it!
ReplyDeleteNot this again!
DeleteGeez, that GFS jumped up!
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't put too much stake into a 6/18 run.
DeleteHow about the 00z run?
DeleteNovak just posted 6-10+ for the metro!
ReplyDeleteAlso Paul Douglas and Paul Huttner both are increasing their amounts...4-8+
This escalated quickly! But we’ve been overdue!
LET IT SNOW!!
From the NWS early evening AFD.... If and when confidence increases more with
ReplyDeletewhere this band will set up, snowfall totals will need to be
increased by another few inches in those locations. If not for
running out of time with this update, probably could justify the 00Z
guidance enough evidence to increase further right now. The current
forecast has the highest totals of 5 to 9 inches forecast from
Mankato to the Twin Cities and north along I-35.
Hey all. Sorry I haven't commented in quite some time. Needless to say, it has been busy the last few days & the last 6+ weeks have been snoozers.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, my only comment tonight is that no weather forecasters should've been surprised by this potential winter storm. Guidance has been showing a massive/impressive trough for several days now. It is a shame that some downplayed this storm up to the last second. IMO, that just shouldn't happen. Granted, this storm could still BUST, but I believe it is better to error on the side of caution rather than simply telling the public nothing is going to happen.
Especially on a heavy travel day like tomorrow. Period.
ReplyDeleteWaiting for the EURO to come in, and Tom I agree
ReplyDeleteLooks like 8-12 over the metro, confidence level 7 out of 10, how much rain falls at the outset etc. This could be way to conservative.
ReplyDeleteWell, bravo to you who know how to do this forecasting and have your studies/knowledge/credentials about weather. I asked Bill to please put up this new thread, and talk about good timing based on your chatter days ago. NWS now has a winter storm warning for the metro all the way until 6 a.m. tomorrow morning! 6-12 inches for the metro. Amazingly cool timing. "White Christmas"indeed. Because it's going to be a holiday storm, it kind of reminds me of the Halloween Blizzard's first day. Stay safe everyone.
ReplyDeleteCan't believe how quiet it is in here with this system approaching...come on
ReplyDeleteLatest Runs MSP -
ReplyDeleteECMWF 0z - 13.3
GDPS 0z - 13.2
Gfs 6z - 14.2
gfsv16 6z - 0.9
Nam 12Z - 13.4
RDPS 12Z - 12.0
Out of curiosity, is the “gfsv16 6z - 0.9” accounting for precipitation or snow specifically?
ReplyDeleteGetting hyped up for this storm! I’ll be sitting in front of the window and watching it like a big TV today!
Stay safe out there everyone....
Someone on MPR Twitter predicting 15”-20” in metro...
ReplyDeleteAnyone know if this is realistic/legit?
https://twitter.com/mprweather/status/1341590701923033089?s=21
It might not be off the table to see an isolated 15", but above that seems a bit hopeful. It will all depend on how this thing pivots. What does seem like a pretty good probability at this time is at least somewhere between 7"-10" pretty much metrowide
DeleteNot sure why my last post was from anonymous. :-/
ReplyDeleteYes the GFSV16z is from the Total Accumulated Snowfall (Kuchera) parameter. I would say its quite the outlier. Nonetheless for MSP all the other models point to a foot or more based on Kuchera snowfall.
Big fat flakes in west metro(Golden Valley)....rain to snow already. Almost an inch on the ground and the roads are snow covered as well. The roads will be horrible today with each passing hour as the temps get colder and colder.
ReplyDeleteI’m a bit surprised no blizzard warning for the core metro....there will be blizzard conditions here to but maybe we don’t hit every criteria there is. No matter it’s going to be a hasty day on the roads.
But a beautiful White Christmas!
Latest Runs MSP -
ReplyDeleteECMWF 0z - 13.3 , 12Z 16.5
GDPS 0z - 13.2, 12Z 11.4
Gfs 6z - 14.2, 12Z 15.3
gfsv16 6z - 0.9, no update
hrrr 12z - 14.7
hrw arw 12z - 12.8
hrw fv3 12z - 10.2
hrw nnmb 12z - 12.0
hrw nssl 12z - 13.5
Nam 12Z - 13.4,
Nam 3k 12z - 10.8
RDPS 12Z - 12.0
This is an awesome summary, Dyson Guy! Thanks for taking the time to put this together. While I know that we all have access to many of these models, to have it all in one place is awesome.
ReplyDeleteWhat is just as awesome is the way the snow is falling - unreal!! I think Plymouth gets 13.5 inches. Bring it!!
This is incredible...a Christmas Miracle, especially given our non-existent winter in December up to this point! All kudos to Novak! He is the only met that I heard predict a big storm. Everyone else, including the NWS, was saying maybe a dusting, possible outside chance of an inch. Dyson Guy, thanks for compiling the latest computer snowfall predictions. I agree that it's very helpful and convenient to have all of that information consolidated into one quick reference point. Here in the Maple Grove/Plymouth area it is a whiteout. The winds are howling, the snow is falling rapidly and the temps are nosediving. Everyone be safe, enjoy the storm and Happy Holidays!
ReplyDeleteStorm Warning is gone for the metro; now it's a blizzard warning and still predicting 7-13 inches of snow by tomorrow morning. I can't believe it was 47 this morning and going down to -4 tonight. And the winds.... hoping the power grids can stay 'on' and working. I echo all that Schnee Meister says above, especially the everyone be safe, enjoy the storm, and Happy Holidays.
ReplyDeleteWell, that escalated quickly. Novak and Randy Hill were the only two I spotted putting out the potential for blizzard conditions early on this storm. Let's see what happens but it went from steady rain to couple inches and whiteout in an hour or so.
ReplyDeleteThis is amazing. I went back to read about the Armistice Day Blizzard because Paul Douglas brought it up on local radio this morning....... and they didn't have all the forecasting going on that we have now. It started out a nice balmy day like today. Looking out the window now, I can't believe it nor can I imagine if people were trying to duck hunt or if they had gone out in their regular work shoes with no boots, etc. This blizzard is not something we routinely see. One grandkid has already had her power flicker and internet out in the northern metro.
ReplyDeleteIts kinda crazy the GFS is going crazy for the 10 day period showing 30 inches in the metro. If this would happen it would remind me of 2 years ago. We didn't really see anything until mid December and then when it started it didn't stop.
ReplyDeleteDon't look now but the Euro and the Gem are on board for another major system somewhere near home around the end of the year.
DeleteI know. I keep thinking it will 'go away'...... that would be amazing!
DeleteJust got home from beating golf balls at X Golf here in Champlin, not surprised to see a rare Blizzard Warning for the core metro....it's nasty out there.
ReplyDeleteFrom the 3pm AFD "Main change to this forecast was to push the snowfall forecast
ReplyDeletetoward what we saw from the 12z HREF and HopWRF, with 9" to 12"
forecast in the heaviest band from Mankato up through the Twin
Cities toward Hinckley. Most models show a band of 1-1.2" of QPF
falling along something between a Mankato to Minneapolis line or a
Waseca to New Richmond line. Pushing that of QPF into the snow
category supports seeing 12"+ of snow, assuming someone can figure
out how to measure this wind whipped mess."
No kidding. I've often wondered how the folks measure with these winds.
Deleteamazing...."
ReplyDelete1 SW Brooklyn Center [Hennepin Co, MN] ASOS reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M66 MPH at 3:53 PM CST -- ASOS STATION KMIC CRYSTAL AP."
Well, MSP recorded a record-breaker 8.7 inches of white stuff. Not bad for it starting off first as rain.........
ReplyDeleteNot a blockbuster in terms of the amount of snow, but the wind was epic!
ReplyDeleteWho has a bead on what’s next? Sunday? Wednesday?
Merry Christmas
Tuesday Wednesday already showing 7-14 on my weather app...let's have some fun..
ReplyDeleteI wonder if I should message Bill on FB and ask for a new thread for next week's potential snow dump. What do you all think? If any of you are on FB, you can message him, too, at his MN Forecaster site.
ReplyDeleteYea, let's wait a day or two. You know how to reach me!
DeleteYup! The chatter is out there, though, for mid-week. "Can't wait" ........
DeleteBill i keep asking novak about you and weather videos and he said he just hasn't been able to hook up with you. If this storm keeps looking big, it would be nice to see you 2 together.
DeleteHe does a number of videos on Facebook
DeleteI think it's also a question of technology... When he does them on Facebook I don't think it can be a 2-way video. I do miss doing them.
Deletenah lets wait till like Sunday to see if this thing actually plays out.. still a week out
ReplyDeletesounds good...........
DeleteMerry Christmas to all my fellow snow enthusiasts. More on the way to track....Sunday clipper...Tuesday Colorado low. More inches coming!
ReplyDeleteIt will be a very white New Years as well!
Merry Christmas everyone!! The snow was the best Christmas present EVER! And more to come is just the snow on top of the snow globe!
ReplyDeleteBring it!
New post for possible storm action this upcoming week.
ReplyDeleteThumbs up; WCCO is talking about a 'whopper' on Wednesday. Joy. Thanks for the new post.
Delete