Thanks for the new thread; looks like I'm missing Novak on FB and snow total predictions are all over the place around here. Everything from a mushy couple of inches to 9-11 inches! It's a slow mover, that's for sure. And warm. I was worried about flash freezing like that storm in December, but Mr Novak says that shouldn't happen in the metro this time around. Hopefully the gurus will weigh in as more computer predictions spit out numbers/ potential snow totals.
Wow, I sure hope he changed that forecast. Taking a quick at the charts from the various models, the H85 temps drop below 0° around 10am Thursday and stay there throughout the duration based on 3hr intervals from the NAM. In addition to that the forecast soundings at 3hr intervals show the entire column below freezing as well. There appears to be a Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ) depth of arounmd 3800 to 4700ft deep throughout as well. While not that impressive as far as depth it's still there, the winds will be very strong and they will act to tear the dendrites apart, so precip type appears to remain all snow after the transition Thursday morning.
Looks like Ian comes out a winner on this one, at least so far! Only 2.0 inches at the airport as of midnight, it's Friday morning, and less than an inch left in their predictions snow-wise. The warmth must have done a number on snow fall totals.
Long duration event with snowfall ratios to start at less than 10:1 transitioning to around 13 or 14:1 when we get on the back side of this thing, it's looking around 4-6" total if measurements are taken at 6 hour intervals to properly account for compaction. Probably around 6-9" south of the metro. Therefore I expect a upgrade from the Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory in the metro and Winter Storm Warning to the south. A Blizzard warning may be needed south and west of the metro for a 4-6 hour period on Friday. w
Warnings/advisories are now in place. Immediate metro looks like advisory; south metro is a winter storm warning. And blizzard warnings immediately west/southwest of the metro. Gonna be a doozie for a lot of folks as this plays out. And for all blogsters south/east/in WI, I'm thinking about your warnings, too! Bring it.
Snowing moderately to heavy in Golden Valley, all surfaces covered already.
Should be an interesting storm, am a bit concerned with the lack of cold air....the duration of this storm will have surface temps near freezing the entire time....at least the roads should be wet and slushy as opposed to icy since it will be a wetter snow.
I agree @bigdaddy, it's a little disappointing that in the heart of January we are struggling to have cold enough air for a snowstorm. This is a very March-like storm. Fortunately, we are getting all snow. Just imagine how much snow we would be expecting from this storm if we had typical January temperatures. Let it Snow!! Let it Snow!!
I saw an interesting comment by the NWS about why we are in an advisory and not a warning...and it has to do with the duration. Since it’s 6+“ spread out over 36 hours, the snow rate didn’t meet warning criteria. They did say if the winds pick up, that could bump us back into a warning.
Either way it’s going to be a beautiful couple days!
I wish it was ten degrees colder. The snow has partially melted off the metal cone protecting my bird feeder, and the trees in my yard are turning wet from the snow partially melting. Tomorrow is supposed to be in the mid-30's again? As someone else said, this is a March storm, not a January storm. Don't these storms usually drag down cold air from Canada?
As of midnight, MSP airport only recorded 2.0 inches and Chanhassen a tiny bit more than 2.0. For me that's disappointing. And looking out the window here in St Louis Park, it doesn't look like much fell overnight snow-wise. It sure is warm out there-33 at 4:30 a.m. Today's forecast in my neck of the woods calls for a mix of snow/rain 'less than a half inch' of more snow per noaa. I'm not calling 'bust' but 'disappointment'....... and yeah, for me, Ian L at KMSP called it the best, and maybe because of how warm it is and how much of it came down as warm liquid v cold flakes?
So now noaa has swung the pendulum back and instead of 'less than half an inch' today it's 1-2 inches today prior to 2 p.m. It's definitely snowing sideways out there in St Louis Park.
In the north metro, we definitely got more than expected Thursday and then less last night. I have maybe two inches of slush so how much snow was that? Needed some more cold air that we didn't get. Novak's map was for 36 hours, so 4+ concrete snow I got fits. It does feel like the storm underperformed since models put out more but its snowing again now.
Another remainder of the accuracy of the Paul Douglas' rule for snow amount forecasting: take all model averages at 10/1 and Kuchera ratios and discount it by 50%. 8 out of 10 times you will be pretty spot on.
I heard Paul on 'CCO today and he was like, 'This is a la niña winter?' It was like, 'Go figure,' because it isn't acting like one. I remember fall seasonal outlooks from NOAA/the climate prediction center showed a nice cold winter; they have moderated over time to 'equal chance'....
Models got the temps wrong by only 1-2 degrees but oh can that make a difference. Instead of it being 31-32 degrees it was hovering around 33-34 and just that slight change made our 6 inches of snow compact into 2-3 inches of slush.. Yuck!
I beg to disagree. This storm never really got together for the MSP area. As a matter of fact I am still waiting for the 'high' winds that should have materialized and have not yet; a clear sign the storm just never got as strong as expected. The liquid equivalent yesterday at MSP was 0.27'. even with 2-3 degree colder you are never going to get 6+ inches. The convergence zone set up further south-east and the deformation zone never really got organized.
I am echoing so many others' comments on here. I had a bad feeling early yesterday that it was going to stay too warm for a big snow. Unfortunately, that is what occurred. Here in the Plymouth/Maple Grove area we picked up about 3-4 inches total, beginning yesterday morning. It's nothing but slush (like mid to late March!). Now that the storm is moving out it will turn much colder and that slush will become hard as a rock. I don't often agree with Paul Douglas, but I do in regard to being bewildered that this is a La Nina winter. I, and I'm sure many others as well, have been asking since early December...where is our cold, snowy La Nina winter???? I'm going to put out an all points bulletin. We're still searching for it....
One interesting note that I have seen Paul Douglas mention before and that he mentions again in today's Strib: "With the pandemic, fewer jets are flying. Aircraft provide upper air data used to power the models we use. Fewer data points to fuel the simulations we rely on is problematic."
My thoughts on this “storm” that just passed and the rest of January(storm is in quotes because if you live in Atlanta that would have been a storm, Minneapolis just another day(or two):
I don’t like using the word bust when it comes to snow(fall), any snow is welcome and appreciated by real snowlovers, just the mere mention of snow gets us excited, am I wrong my fellow snow enthusiasts? Anyhow @Weathergeek said it best, it’s not a bust but a disappointment especially when weather models that I posted above were updating with large numbers, everyone of them the minimum was 6” and we didn’t come close here in the core so I’ll just leave it at that that is was a disappointment.
Now looking ahead like I always do and seeing “what’s next” like I know the most of you do too....in my opinion I see good news for snowlovers after we get by the brief thaw of Wednesday/Thursday....the pattern changes to decidedly colder, not Arctic but colder...somewhere between average to below average(keep in mind average is 23° this time of year), so the flow will be out of the Northwest which opens the door for potential “Alberta clippers” as well as several storms coming onshore of the Pacific Northwest which can spurn “Colorado Lows”....so I’m going to go out on abit of a limb here and say the TC metro will see 3 snow events(defined as 2” or greater) of varying intensities between now and the end of January! Let’s see what happens either I’m correct or I eat crow....I am no weather expert or have a degree in meteorology, I just have followed weather a long time and this is just what I see in the upcoming pattern is all.
I think it is hilarious how many people feel like the storm was a bust. It was not. Do you realize that portions of so. MN (a mere 30 miles from the MSP metro) received 6"-8" of white concrete? If it were a few degrees colder, that would've been 10"-12" of snow!
Sure, it was a bust for portions of the MSP metro, especially if you were expecting the totals that the NWS had predicted, but this storm was in now way a bust.
Also, keep in mind that many weather outlets were hardly expecting a flake over much of southern MN leading right up to the storm. I would call that an over-achieving scenario much more than a bust.
Now, let's turn our attention to this coming weekend. This is setting up to be a beautiful and 'classic' over-running significant SNOW for a good chunk of the Upper Midwest. Been awhile since we've had COLD Arctic air to work with. I say it is about time!
Thanks for coming over to the blog and for your posts, Mr Novak. I do have a question. What do you think of Paul Douglas's notes/commentary about how with less air traffic there is less data to feed into forecasting models and therefore a greater chance of 'misses' with some forecasting? Thanks in advance for your input.
well, data is definitely an issue in general with weather forecasting. Simply put, we don't have nearly enough data points on earth & in our atmosphere to reasonably say that we can be "accurate" with model forecasting. In theory, weather could be a perfect or near perfect science. However, until we have a ton more (and I mean a lot) more data points, we won't ever come close to being perfect. AND, when you take points away (ie - less jets in the sky), that can only hurt our forecasting.
Game on for this coming weekend: (from the 1/18 AM AFD)
For the end of the week into the weekend, a longwave ridge aloft looks to move across the area Friday night into Saturday, allowing for a small warming trend to commence going into the weekend (highs climbing from the teens to the mid 20s by Sunday). However, on the heels of the ridge will be the development of a potent southern stream low pressure system moving onshore over southern California and transitioning into the Deep South over the weekend into early next week. The longwave trough associated with this system looks to sharpen deeply as it crosses the Rockies and pivot a bit, helping drag the system further north into the central CONUS. There is much more model agreement in bringing this system farther north and closer to MN/WI than in previous runs. In addition, temperature profiles (along with NBM surface temperature forecasts) indicate the system will come mostly, if not entirely, with a p-type of snow. While it is still much too early to determine any snowfall specifics, the timing of the system would bring the best chances for snowfall across the region Saturday night into Sunday. After collab with surrounding offices, have adjusted PoPs higher than NBM, into the 40s and 50s due to higher confidence on the system impacting the Upper Midwest. There is still plenty that can change, especially with this system being 6 days out, but enough signals are there in the operational models to increase PoPs over NBM guidance.
Everything beyond this statement is 100% guessing.
This frontal passage will bring an end to our brief warm up and send us down into below normal temperatures for the later part of the week. There will be a chance for some light snow showers or flurries as this front moves through, but there does not look to be enough dynamical support for anything significant.
I'll hang my hat on this much to be true attm......
Nothing else can be forecasted from long term speculations..... man
I have been following this page since close to the beginning, and I can say this is not true.
I would say most of the contributing weather enthusiasts enjoy tracking blockbusters and discussing their development. So there is a sense of disappointment when a big storm fizzles out or dives south on us.
Most of the “going after” on this site is anonymous trolls taking jabs at the enthusiasts’ enthusiasm with baseless weather predictions and the enthusiasts calling them out for being anonymous and baseless.
I like to think of the anonymous trolls as being Dave Dahl just messing with us and laughing.
You guys are a hoot sometimes! :+) It is snowing at a good clip here in St Louis Park right now. Onward to the next thread and the weekend potential for some snow to shovel and plow and play in.
Thanks for the new thread; looks like I'm missing Novak on FB and snow total predictions are all over the place around here. Everything from a mushy couple of inches to 9-11 inches! It's a slow mover, that's for sure. And warm. I was worried about flash freezing like that storm in December, but Mr Novak says that shouldn't happen in the metro this time around. Hopefully the gurus will weigh in as more computer predictions spit out numbers/ potential snow totals.
ReplyDeleteIan on fox9 is still kinda down playing this storm...saying rain is going to be mixing in with this storm throughout the duration.
ReplyDeleteWow, I sure hope he changed that forecast. Taking a quick at the charts from the various models, the H85 temps drop below 0° around 10am Thursday and stay there throughout the duration based on 3hr intervals from the NAM. In addition to that the forecast soundings at 3hr intervals show the entire column below freezing as well. There appears to be a Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ) depth of arounmd 3800 to 4700ft deep throughout as well. While not that impressive as far as depth it's still there, the winds will be very strong and they will act to tear the dendrites apart, so precip type appears to remain all snow after the transition Thursday morning.
DeleteLooks like Ian comes out a winner on this one, at least so far! Only 2.0 inches at the airport as of midnight, it's Friday morning, and less than an inch left in their predictions snow-wise. The warmth must have done a number on snow fall totals.
DeleteLong duration event with snowfall ratios to start at less than 10:1 transitioning to around 13 or 14:1 when we get on the back side of this thing, it's looking around 4-6" total if measurements are taken at 6 hour intervals to properly account for compaction. Probably around 6-9" south of the metro. Therefore I expect a upgrade from the Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory in the metro and Winter Storm Warning to the south. A Blizzard warning may be needed south and west of the metro for a 4-6 hour period on Friday.
ReplyDeletew
ReplyDeleteSince the system is here now.Its looking like less than hyped to me.
Saturation is less for one-thing
Warnings/advisories are now in place. Immediate metro looks like advisory; south metro is a winter storm warning. And blizzard warnings immediately west/southwest of the metro. Gonna be a doozie for a lot of folks as this plays out. And for all blogsters south/east/in WI, I'm thinking about your warnings, too! Bring it.
ReplyDeleteSnowing moderately to heavy in Golden Valley, all surfaces covered already.
ReplyDeleteShould be an interesting storm, am a bit concerned with the lack of cold air....the duration of this storm will have surface temps near freezing the entire time....at least the roads should be wet and slushy as opposed to icy since it will be a wetter snow.
As of 9AM(latest model predictions) for core Twin Cities metro at 10:1 ratio:
ReplyDelete-12Z NAM....8-10”
-00Z ECMWF...6-8”
-00Z Canadian...6-8”
-00Z UKMET....6-8”
06Z GFS....8-10”
06Z HRRR....12-14”
00Z HRW-WRF....8-10”
It’s hard pressed Twin Cities doesn’t move to a warning!
I agree @bigdaddy, it's a little disappointing that in the heart of January we are struggling to have cold enough air for a snowstorm. This is a very March-like storm. Fortunately, we are getting all snow. Just imagine how much snow we would be expecting from this storm if we had typical January temperatures. Let it Snow!! Let it Snow!!
ReplyDeleteI saw an interesting comment by the NWS about why we are in an advisory and not a warning...and it has to do with the duration. Since it’s 6+“ spread out over 36 hours, the snow rate didn’t meet warning criteria. They did say if the winds pick up, that could bump us back into a warning.
ReplyDeleteEither way it’s going to be a beautiful couple days!
Thought the radar looked like we were going to get dry-slotted, but now it appears to be back-developing and filling in again.
ReplyDeleteI wish it was ten degrees colder. The snow has partially melted off the metal cone protecting my bird feeder, and the trees in my yard are turning wet from the snow partially melting. Tomorrow is supposed to be in the mid-30's again? As someone else said, this is a March storm, not a January storm. Don't these storms usually drag down cold air from Canada?
ReplyDeleteAs Bill asked in the intro to this thread - What's gonna happen?
ReplyDeleteThis is an touchy one to forecast so throw our your numbers!
I say for official MSP - 6.5 inches.
I'll go with 6 inches officially at MSP.
ReplyDeleteBust.
ReplyDeleteOh boy the toxic "Anonymous" troll is back. Wonderful.
DeleteI'm kinda with anonymous here i think its going to be a bust and Ian on channel 9 will be correct.
ReplyDeleteI mean it’s hard to call it a bust when the storm isn’t even close to being over...
ReplyDeleteNWS just sent out a tweet saying the heavier snow developed more east and that their revising their forecast. BUST it is...
ReplyDeleteIt’s snowing steadily now with heavy bands marching in. The NWS could just be revising their forecast to increase totals east of the Metro.
DeleteI still don't see how another 3-6 inches is a "bust". At best I would say the storm is under performing but it is far from a bust.
DeleteAs of midnight, MSP airport only recorded 2.0 inches and Chanhassen a tiny bit more than 2.0. For me that's disappointing. And looking out the window here in St Louis Park, it doesn't look like much fell overnight snow-wise. It sure is warm out there-33 at 4:30 a.m. Today's forecast in my neck of the woods calls for a mix of snow/rain 'less than a half inch' of more snow per noaa. I'm not calling 'bust' but 'disappointment'....... and yeah, for me, Ian L at KMSP called it the best, and maybe because of how warm it is and how much of it came down as warm liquid v cold flakes?
ReplyDeleteIt depends on why Ian L was forecasting so little. I'm guessing it was sheer dumb luck that he will end up being correct.
DeleteMaybe two inches in south minneapolis. Maybe. 34 degrees and getting warmer.
ReplyDeleteSo now noaa has swung the pendulum back and instead of 'less than half an inch' today it's 1-2 inches today prior to 2 p.m. It's definitely snowing sideways out there in St Louis Park.
ReplyDeleteIn the north metro, we definitely got more than expected Thursday and then less last night. I have maybe two inches of slush so how much snow was that? Needed some more cold air that we didn't get. Novak's map was for 36 hours, so 4+ concrete snow I got fits. It does feel like the storm underperformed since models put out more but its snowing again now.
ReplyDeleteAnother remainder of the accuracy of the Paul Douglas' rule for snow amount forecasting: take all model averages at 10/1 and Kuchera ratios and discount it by 50%.
ReplyDelete8 out of 10 times you will be pretty spot on.
I heard Paul on 'CCO today and he was like, 'This is a la niña winter?' It was like, 'Go figure,' because it isn't acting like one. I remember fall seasonal outlooks from NOAA/the climate prediction center showed a nice cold winter; they have moderated over time to 'equal chance'....
Delete3" or so seems pretty common for the SW suburbs. It is crazy that the temps are this warm in mid-January. Lots of slush.
ReplyDeleteModels got the temps wrong by only 1-2 degrees but oh can that make a difference. Instead of it being 31-32 degrees it was hovering around 33-34 and just that slight change made our 6 inches of snow compact into 2-3 inches of slush.. Yuck!
ReplyDeleteExactly what Paul Douglas noted on 'CCO this morning. It's just too warm for a big snowmaker, he said. Yuck, indeed, agreed!
DeleteI beg to disagree.
DeleteThis storm never really got together for the MSP area. As a matter of fact I am still waiting for the 'high' winds that should have materialized and have not yet; a clear sign the storm just never got as strong as expected.
The liquid equivalent yesterday at MSP was 0.27'.
even with 2-3 degree colder you are never going to get 6+ inches.
The convergence zone set up further south-east and the deformation zone never really got organized.
Wasn't this suppose to be a multi-day event?
ReplyDeleteI am echoing so many others' comments on here. I had a bad feeling early yesterday that it was going to stay too warm for a big snow. Unfortunately, that is what occurred. Here in the Plymouth/Maple Grove area we picked up about 3-4 inches total, beginning yesterday morning. It's nothing but slush (like mid to late March!). Now that the storm is moving out it will turn much colder and that slush will become hard as a rock. I don't often agree with Paul Douglas, but I do in regard to being bewildered that this is a La Nina winter. I, and I'm sure many others as well, have been asking since early December...where is our cold, snowy La Nina winter???? I'm going to put out an all points bulletin. We're still searching for it....
ReplyDeleteJust wait until April.
DeleteI didnt see enough precip to make 6"
ReplyDeleteWhat's the average liquid ratio
10/1?
One interesting note that I have seen Paul Douglas mention before and that he mentions again in today's Strib: "With the pandemic, fewer jets are flying. Aircraft provide upper air data used to power the models we use. Fewer data points to fuel the simulations we rely on is problematic."
ReplyDeleteMy thoughts on this “storm” that just passed and the rest of January(storm is in quotes because if you live in Atlanta that would have been a storm, Minneapolis just another day(or two):
ReplyDeleteI don’t like using the word bust when it comes to snow(fall), any snow is welcome and appreciated by real snowlovers, just the mere mention of snow gets us excited, am I wrong my fellow snow enthusiasts? Anyhow @Weathergeek said it best, it’s not a bust but a disappointment especially when weather models that I posted above were updating with large numbers, everyone of them the minimum was 6” and we didn’t come close here in the core so I’ll just leave it at that that is was a disappointment.
Now looking ahead like I always do and seeing “what’s next” like I know the most of you do too....in my opinion I see good news for snowlovers after we get by the brief thaw of Wednesday/Thursday....the pattern changes to decidedly colder, not Arctic but colder...somewhere between average to below average(keep in mind average is 23° this time of year), so the flow will be out of the Northwest which opens the door for potential “Alberta clippers” as well as several storms coming onshore of the Pacific Northwest which can spurn “Colorado Lows”....so I’m going to go out on abit of a limb here and say the TC metro will see 3 snow events(defined as 2” or greater) of varying intensities between now and the end of January! Let’s see what happens either I’m correct or I eat crow....I am no weather expert or have a degree in meteorology, I just have followed weather a long time and this is just what I see in the upcoming pattern is all.
I think it is hilarious how many people feel like the storm was a bust. It was not. Do you realize that portions of so. MN (a mere 30 miles from the MSP metro) received 6"-8" of white concrete? If it were a few degrees colder, that would've been 10"-12" of snow!
ReplyDeleteSure, it was a bust for portions of the MSP metro, especially if you were expecting the totals that the NWS had predicted, but this storm was in now way a bust.
Also, keep in mind that many weather outlets were hardly expecting a flake over much of southern MN leading right up to the storm. I would call that an over-achieving scenario much more than a bust.
Now, let's turn our attention to this coming weekend. This is setting up to be a beautiful and 'classic' over-running significant SNOW for a good chunk of the Upper Midwest. Been awhile since we've had COLD Arctic air to work with. I say it is about time!
ReplyDeleteThanks for coming over to the blog and for your posts, Mr Novak. I do have a question. What do you think of Paul Douglas's notes/commentary about how with less air traffic there is less data to feed into forecasting models and therefore a greater chance of 'misses' with some forecasting? Thanks in advance for your input.
Deletewell, data is definitely an issue in general with weather forecasting. Simply put, we don't have nearly enough data points on earth & in our atmosphere to reasonably say that we can be "accurate" with model forecasting. In theory, weather could be a perfect or near perfect science. However, until we have a ton more (and I mean a lot) more data points, we won't ever come close to being perfect. AND, when you take points away (ie - less jets in the sky), that can only hurt our forecasting.
DeleteThanks for your thoughts, Mr Novak. Much appreciated. Here's hoping for some substantial snow this weekend!
DeleteGame on for this coming weekend: (from the 1/18 AM AFD)
ReplyDeleteFor the end of the week into the weekend, a longwave ridge aloft
looks to move across the area Friday night into Saturday, allowing
for a small warming trend to commence going into the weekend (highs
climbing from the teens to the mid 20s by Sunday). However, on the
heels of the ridge will be the development of a potent southern
stream low pressure system moving onshore over southern California
and transitioning into the Deep South over the weekend into early
next week. The longwave trough associated with this system looks to
sharpen deeply as it crosses the Rockies and pivot a bit, helping
drag the system further north into the central CONUS. There is much
more model agreement in bringing this system farther north and closer
to MN/WI than in previous runs. In addition, temperature profiles
(along with NBM surface temperature forecasts) indicate the system
will come mostly, if not entirely, with a p-type of snow. While it is
still much too early to determine any snowfall specifics, the timing
of the system would bring the best chances for snowfall across the
region Saturday night into Sunday. After collab with surrounding
offices, have adjusted PoPs higher than NBM, into the 40s and 50s due
to higher confidence on the system impacting the Upper Midwest.
There is still plenty that can change, especially with this system
being 6 days out, but enough signals are there in the operational
models to increase PoPs over NBM guidance.
Just cold air forecasted imo
ReplyDeleteI love that your name is unknown and you dont state any facts or reason why you think its cold air forecasted...cmon man dont be a troll
DeleteEverything beyond this statement is 100% guessing.
ReplyDeleteThis frontal passage will bring an
end to our brief warm up and send us down into below normal
temperatures for the later part of the week. There will be a chance
for some light snow showers or flurries as this front moves through,
but there does not look to be enough dynamical support for anything
significant.
I'll hang my hat on this much to be true attm......
Nothing else can be forecasted from long term speculations..... man
This page is well known for going after, cancel, people who believe each storm that pops up will be a blockbuster.
DeleteNo clue what this means.
DeleteI have been following this page since close to the beginning, and I can say this is not true.
DeleteI would say most of the contributing weather enthusiasts enjoy tracking blockbusters and discussing their development. So there is a sense of disappointment when a big storm fizzles out or dives south on us.
Most of the “going after” on this site is anonymous trolls taking jabs at the enthusiasts’ enthusiasm with baseless weather predictions and the enthusiasts calling them out for being anonymous and baseless.
I like to think of the anonymous trolls as being Dave Dahl just messing with us and laughing.
30% chance measurable snow Saturday....
ReplyDelete110% of the jest stream forecasted well south of mn
ReplyDeleteYou guys are a hoot sometimes! :+) It is snowing at a good clip here in St Louis Park right now. Onward to the next thread and the weekend potential for some snow to shovel and plow and play in.
ReplyDelete