The storm this weekend really smells bad. Marginal temps from the surface all the way up to 850mb...lack of significant forcing at all levels...surface low that tracks well south of MN/WI. This has all the makings of a precipitation event that has a hard time making headlines. I'm actually much more worried about some ICE than snow. Freezing drizzle, etc.
Yucky; freezing drizzle is becoming so much more common now, unless I am hallucinating. 1) thanks for the new thread, Bill and 2) thanks for visiting 'on the regular' Mr Novak. Much appreciated. I will watch for your updates on FB.
06Z GFS ramped up the precip total for this weekend's system a bit, so it will be interesting to watch the next few runs. Max temp was 30 degrees, and it was only briefly during the longer-duration event.
We all saw 2 storms ago the difference a couple of degrees can make, so it will also be interesting to track whether the temps peak near 30, or 32, or 34 and the affects that has on totals/types of precip.
I don’t know about the rest of you but I think that’s great. I love Minnesota winters without the battery draining nose hair freezing arctic cold air. In my opinion this winter has been great minus the consistent snow cover but we have had snow cover now for over a month. It has snowed every month since October, 4 straight months and we are currently above average for snowfall with over 38” at MSP.....sure I wish every snow event was significant with over 6-8” every time and the metro sat in the bullseye each time but I believe except for the event 2 weeks ago where rain mixed in and was just too warm for all snow to accumulate each storm/precipitation since our first snowfall in October has been all snow so our temperatures have been cold enough for snow just not brutally cold. Just my two cents.
Better forcing will be south of us. Better forcing equals better intensity, so heavier snow will accumulate easier but it will also be wetter. We will have all snow this weekend just not as much since we will be on the northern fringes of the storm.
Why can't the Twin Cities ever be in the bullseye a major snowstorm the day of the event, instead of a week away? I will dance along with PWL for next week's snow event, but I am not going to get my hopes up this far out. We have all been down that road way too many times.
I dislike freezing drizzle intensely. I remember back in the late 1990s when I went to a workshop in Iowa City, and there was sand 'everywhere'... sidewalks, roads, just everywhere. I asked why, and they said, 'We have freezing drizzle/ice rain a lot.' I thought, 'I'm glad I'm up in MSP.' Well, now it seems we get that stuff a lot, too. It's in the forecast for tonight and tomorrow. I miss good old cold and snow. The climate is definitely changing. The 1-2 inches of snow possible Saturday night is beautiful, but that possibility of a .1 of an inch of ice and 'little' to no ice accumulation is all we need for a skating rink out there.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 a.m. tomorrow all the way until 6 a.m. Sunday...... the ice had disappeared from the forecast for a spell, but it's back. I hope the 1.5-2.5 inches of snow help take the edge of any slippery stuff. Stay safe everyone and enjoy the snow we get.
The system for mid-late next week is going to be fun to watch evolve. Warm air mixing in (hopefully not over the Twin Cities) and intense cold after the storm which indicates quite the powerful system. NWS discussion this afternoon talks about low temperatures right after the storm moves through of up to -30!! Yikes!
bigdaddy are you referring to today's event? It does appear something shifted overnight. "Sad" as the ice totals remain 'same' and snow very much diminished. Is that what you mean by 'not happening now'? Thanks if you can tell me more.
Don't be surprised, JAW, as I mentioned the other day...it's never good to be in the bullseye of a big storm a week away from the event. Of course things can still change, but the way this hapless winter has gone I would put Iowa and Chicago on alert...once again...for a big mid-week storm. In the meanwhile, MN will probably be left high and mostly dry...again...just like with today's system. The beat goes on. Someone once said that when a winter pattern sets in, it's very difficult to break it. That crossed my mind during the first three weeks of our hapless December. I had hoped the Christmas blizzard would break that pattern, but it didn't.
Paul Douglas has mentioned several times that a lack of airplanes flying overhead during the pandemic hurts weather forecasting because less data is flowing into computer models. So far nobody seems to be buying it around here, but today so far has been a 'nothing burger' and I literally altered some plans thinking that the ice mix was going to come as of last night. So far as of 4:50 p.m. nothing has happened where I live in the west metro. Now, I'm not complaining about a lack of ice and I hope it stays like that all the way to 6 a.m. tomorrow when the advisory is 'done' but I have egg on my face w/family regarding the icing event, the .1 of ice last night, and the .1 of ice today that 'disappeared' into a mixed precip forecast and then disappeared again into 'nothing' so far. I just feel like there has been less forecast accuracy this winter cycle. I won't post any links here about the airplane data theories though I found plenty including on NPR, but I'm glad to hear more planes flying overhead. Maybe that will be more data for forecast models. Stay safe/hoping for some s-n-o-w!
Paul Douglas is a stooge and should be discounted for his far left wing beliefs which are based on propaganda and not facts. You’ve been duped by airplanes. Good luck.
David, I don't think I've been duped by airplanes. I truly feel duped by 'off' forecasts this year especially. I used to be able to 99.9% depend on certain forecasts/forecasters/sites the past MANY years, and something is definitely 'off' the past year. It's not just PD talking about 'airplane data facts.' Good luck to you, too.
I will put one link; there are many, many of them. I've always been obsessed with weather/love weather/went to spotter trainings, so if the 'seek help' is meant for me, so be it. I only share what I've been reading and my awe at how the forecasts don't seem to be very accurate recently. https://www.airlines.iata.org/analysis/weather-forecasts-lack-data-due-to-covid-19
See above. :+( I just looked out the window and 'nothing' here in St Louis Park. I see no new snowfall at all. Too bad the upcoming cold temps aren't as 'off' ha ha ha. Those will probably be all too real. Disappointing re: snow. Take care winter lovers. Be well/stay safe as we await the next snowfalls.
I wouldn't say the storm is completely gone. Sometimes models can really struggle when there is a lot of energy in the atmosphere and in a couple cases these storms will reappear just a few days before it hits. So don't have your head down just yet!
I agree, Davin! In fact, if you look at the latest GFS, it has quite a bit of wno happening over the next two weeks. I does not show the significant snow necessarily for later this week, but it does who the energy in the atmosphere that is present currently and coming up.
I like the optimism here! It’s happened a few times already this winter where it goes from above average temps to well below in a very short timeframe, and the the models struggle with the moisture forecast...until the storm is 2-3 days away.
Hoping by tomorrow night into Tuesday we can start dialing this thing in for the snow lovers out there!
Hey all, I really like the set-up for later this week. 500mb heights are dropping & are anomalies are lowering (This is key since it suggests a strengthening storm) as they head into the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, jet structure is solid with two jet streaks that are coupled right over MN/WI (Important since this suggests intense lift).
My concerns are phasing & low level temps. However, I'm pretty confident that dynamic cooling will overcome the temp issue. So, if we can get this system to phase, then a potential Blizzard is on the way for rural MN/WI. So, phasing is the big issue to overcome & I'm relatively confident that it will occur, but definitely a close call.
Gut feeling is a 4"-8" snow accumulation in the MSP area with strong winds for all of the region. Wisconsin is in a more favorable position for phasing = higher confidence there.
Phasing is when two separate jet streams and/or jet streaks combine as one. This often happens in a 'coupled' fashion where an area is located in the right rear and left front quad of said jet streaks. In is a classic upper air signature for Winter Storms.
NOAA snow chances keep going up (2-4 inches in the metro, now) for Thursday and Novak has us in the 'moderate/anticipate problems' forecast he put out today on FB. "Bring it!"
Well well well......I see you 12Z NAM and your 6-10” metro area wide....let’s see what your other model friends spit out today. But I like your where your heading NAM!
Alright - lacing them up tighter than usual. Here we go!!
If you haven't read the most recent NWS forecast discussion, you should. It is one of the most thorough discussions I have ever seen. They call out what they don't know and what they do know. They use words that make you think - some I had to google, but that's not saying much - and explain things in ways that I really appreciated. I read their discussion every time they put one out - twice per day. But this one is really good.
I agree, PWL....that was a solid NWS discussion with good descriptions of all the variables at play (there are many). I liked hearing the similarities between their discussion and Novak’s, using a lot of the same terms like forcing and phasing.
A a snow lover, this was the sentence that I liked the most....“the GFS 02.12 shows a surface low of 995mbThursday morning strengthening to 975mb Friday morning. As this low strengthens, it will bring weather impacts across Minnesota and Wisconsin.“
A system this big that is strengthening with each model run is exciting to watch! Maybe it will be like the blizzard earlier this year where it looked like a nuisance 1-3” a couple days before and grew to a blizzard for most of the state.
This is going to be one massive storm out in Wisconsin that is for sure! Sadly we are going to miss any heavier accumulations. I have a gut feeling MSP will only get around an inch of snow and east/south metro maybe 2-3.
Unfortunately you are correct, so depressing! Wisconsin and Iowa get hit hard again and us here in the metro see a paltry inch maybe 2 and then the cold settles in and EVERYTHING gets suppressed south of us for at least 7-10+ days, thus the reason arctic air sucks. It just gets cold and boring around here.
Let's be honest. We all knew the storm was going to leave the TC metro high and dry...again. Remember, the TC was in the bullseye a week ago. That is always the kiss of death for the TC getting a big storm. The lame winter of 2020-21 slugs on.
Well we didn't 'all know' what could/will happen, but I agree that 1.5 to 3 inches will be pretty meager but better than zero. Let's see what we get tonight/tomorrow before the cold slaps us all in the face. I have been jealous watching those snow totals out east!
Not necessarily lame when the TC has nearly 40” this winter, but definitely get the frustration as it’s been a weird winter with 3 snowfalls in October and early November then record warmth followed by extended dry spell with a last minute white Christmas. It’s definitely not a “typical” winter but I wouldn’t call it lame considering like I said we’re at 40” and a good 2-3 months of snowfall still possible....we should at least break our yearly average of 54”.
I remember two years ago. Seemed to be a pretty lame winter. Then we got a major arctic blast to end January and begin February, after which it snowed nearly every other day for the next month.
I'd like to know what is the basis for a 'lame' winter definitions. As of today the TC is 3.7 inches above average (38.3 vs 34.6) with 7 inches of snow on the ground. Boston 'the king of Nor'easters" stands at 24.3. So really would like to know what the 'lame' winter advocates were expecting.
@John, winter fans enjoy consistently cold daytime temps in the teens/20's...not brutal cold, and consistent snowfall. As Big Daddy articulated, it has at least been a "weird" winter. Many people, myself included, would consider it to be in the "lame" category due to inconsistent snowfall, non-existent winter weather the first three weeks of December (average monthly temperatures 5.6 degrees above normal), not hitting zero even once in January (monthly average temperatures 6.5 degrees above normal), no consistent snowpack (7 inches on the ground on February 3rd in Minnesota is nothing to brag about), etc. This is Minnesota, not Boston (where it snows and usually melts within a few days. I know, because I used to live there). Winter fans want to enjoy the winter months, just like summmer fans want to enjoy the summer months. Imagine the widespread disappointment if the summer was cool and rainy with only occasional hot, sunny days. Averages can be very misleading. For example, I've seen two feet of snow fall in Boston from one storm and then a week later it was entirely melted away. The stats still reflect that two feet of snow fell, but it was nothing but a memory a week later. If the majority of that 38.3 inches of snow you mentioned was still on the ground, this would be an entirely different story. You can get 100 inches of snow, but if it consistently melts, that doesn't make for a fun consistent winter.
I dunno @1:30pm Anonymous. I disagree that this is a 'lame' winter. It's been different for sure with the unusual warmth and early non-sticking snow but it's been a wonderful winter for actually getting out and enjoying nature with the warmer temps (and much appreciated during covid too!).
I think most here would say they are weather fans first and foremost. I mean sure, most probably have a preference for one season over another but it's the day-to-day, month-to-month and year-to-year variety that keeps things interesting.
I think this is a great discussion, and it seems to boil down to perception and preferences (which is hard to argue).
Sure, we can talk about temp and snowfall averages, but Anon makes a good point that there's even context in those numbers that has to be considered.
Overall I sign up for every winter to be weird now. I can't remember a spring in the past 20 years where I looked back and said "Well look at that...a traditionally normal winter." Every year seems to have more extremes and in different combinations.
We don't have any control over any of it (on a day to day basis anyway...we can help curb the effects of climate change on a larger scale). So I will continue to enjoy the hell out of the weirdness and appreciate it when the weather gives us entertainment!
On a side note....it was good to see the 12z GFS grow tomorrow's storm by 30% more precip!
The next 24 hours is going to be more than interesting. I'm still fairly confident that a narrow (30 to 50 mi. wide) frontogenetic band of heavy snow will develop somewhere in southern MN/western WI. This could very well be near or in portions of the MSP metro.
Reason being, guidance continues to show a 80 to 100 knot jet streak developing over northern MN by morning. This would place portions of so. MN/WI in the right rear quad of said jet streak = 3 to 6 hour of enhanced lift.
Great conversation, Everyone! I really appreciate each others' points of view and the fact that we can all share our thoughts in a mature and respectful manner. I happen to agree with many of Anon's points, but then again I am a hardcore winter junkie! lol If it was up to me, winter would set in around Thanksgiving each year and be consistently cold and snowy until the end of March. I would then want sun and 70 degrees! Ahhh, but as we all know, it doesn't work that way, so let's just enjoy the weather as it comes. I will state that first and foremost, I just love the weather and its many facets throughout the year. Here's hoping for a snowy/cold February and March! I also want to give a shout out to Mr. Novak for his weather insights and accurate forecasting. Thanks for stopping by to share with us, Mr. Novak!
Man not to jump ahead but maybe well have some luck next week. Latest gfs is showing Iowa getting hammered next week. Maybe the point of not being in the bullseye right away will hold true...
@Ben unfortunately thats just wishing thinking then meteorology. The arctic cold will suppress any meaningful precip from getting to MSP for at least the next 7-10+ days after our brief event today(flurries/snow showers/dustings/coatings, sure but nothing meaningful) thats because the baroclinic zone will setup south of us next week or two, watch for several accumulating snow events coming out of Montana rounding thru South Dakota heading for Iowa and points east, thats where they will be measuring snow,as for us in MSP make sure you have your heavy jackets and gloves and hats and a good book because it will be damn cold and boring.Arctic air most times isnt our friend!
I think all we get next week is the ability to show our kids cool science experiments involving boiling water in arctic air. Arctic sunshine is cool too.
Don’t look now but we could be surprised in terms of snow for. the overnight and the morning....latest 18Z NAM putting down 4-5” in the heart of the metro and the latest HRRR has 3-6” from north of the core to south of the core. Could be more then the 1-2”/1-3” I have been hearing a lot over the past 24-36 hours!
The pavement was turned into a skating rink tonight west of the metro! That little line that moved through earlier left just enough of an ice glaze to ruin the nightly dog walk. Untreated roads are going to be terrible. Careful out there!
Sleet/freezing rain over to snow about 30 minutes ago, in Golden Valley. Solid glaze of ice under now the coating of snow. Its going to be a bad morning rush hour. Lets see how much snow accumulates.
It's all snow in St Louis Park now, but I heard a lot of ice pellets coming down earlier. The sound of scrapers on windows as people try to get the ice off their vehicles is non-stop and energetic.
We got 1-2 in Roseville, so spot-on with the NWS forecast, even days ago. I tend to go with their forecasts, which distills the models and avoids the hysteria.
NWS was far from spot on, maybe for Roseville they were, but they totally blew(as did others) the heavy band of snow that fell 20-30 miles NW of the metro, several 4-6" amounts where the going forecast was for an 1" or less.
Several clipper-type systems will track across the Plains to Midwest, all to the south of our forecast area. The storm track will remain suppressed to our south throughout the period with low to zero PoPs in the NBM. High temperatures will remain in the single digits through the forecast period with lows in the single digits to teens below zero each night. Wind chill advisories/headlines will likely be needed next week as winds are expected to strengthen after Sunday night. By mid-week, most deterministic guidance brings another strong surface high pressure into Montana, once again dropping surface temperatures below zero for Thursday and Friday. The one outlier solution would be the 12Z ECMWF, which tries to develop a low pressure in the central Plains and track into the Ohio River valley for Thursday/Friday. This would delay the reinforcing lobe of Arctic air until next weekend. Regardless, temperatures mid to late week continue to trend downward with the potential for another strong Arctic high pressure to slide into the northern CONUS.
This is why I’m NO fan of Arctic air, one because it gets too damn cold around here and two it gets really dull in the active weather department. Sucks for snowlovers, yet I watch my family back home get battered by snow storm after storm. Jealous!
If it’s going to be boring for awhile let’s have some fun with numbers: give me your predictions on when the next time the night time low doesn’t have a “-“negative symbol in front of it and the next day our high temp gets into double digits(above zero) and just for fun for us snowlovers the next 1” or more of snow, I’ll start.
-Feb. 17th for a above zero low -Feb. 15th for a double digit high -Feb. 20th next 1” or more
Feb 15 low above zero Feb 14 double digit high Feb 15 1"+ of snow........... and that, folks, as you will see, is why I am NOT a meteorologist! :+) But it was fun guessing.
I guess not too many people are interested in the real cold numbers, neither am I, was just something to pass the time till we actually get some more winter weather falling from the sky to talk about. I guess we’re rolling with me, Jon and WeatherGeek with the predictions....let the best weather nut win!
Time to chime in. Sorry about the delay @bigdaddy. I love what you are doing.
Feb. 16 - Above Zero Low Feb. 17 - Double Digit High Feb. 18 - 1+ inch of snow.
Pretty close to everyone else. So darn cold - the problem with the snow cover we have.
Which brings up a point to make to the "it never snows here". Well, it does snow and we are right near average. The bonus we have this year is that we have continuous snow cover for winter activities. We had the early snow in October/November and then it was very mild from mid-November until the nice storm we had around December 23. And since then, we have had a really nice solid snow cover. If we didn't have that, people would be complaining about the brown grass, bare spots, crusty snow, etc. We have a solid layer of snow cover and it isn't going anywhere. The piles on the sides of driveways and roads are significant and not shrinking. We get snow just in time when/if it does start to go down.
This is pretty cool and what makes Minnesota unique - continuous snow cover.
Feb. 16 - next double digit high temperature Feb. 16 - next above zero low temperature Feb. 11 - next 1 inch of snow. That's right, I'm going out on the limb and banking on this Thursday for a little more of the white stuff!
Wow a few more participants! Welcome aboard PWL, Schnee Meister, JAW and Mark....all solid predictions especially when the next 1” or more will fall, seems as though a lot of variation with that one. And @Mark even though your 60 is possible I for one hope it doesn’t come true, March to me is still winter regardless of the the March 1st or March 21st date....seems to be lately that April is still winter with the major snowfalls we have had the last couple of April’s. Time will tell this year, my gut feeling is spring will be delayed yet again.
@bigdaddy I agree with you. I'd like to see March (and also April if possible) as winters months myself but this winter has been all-or-nothing entrenched patterns and I have a gut feeling that once this cold gets dislodged we will move to a southerny-flow regime. I still remember the 80 degrees by St Patrick's day a few years ago....
6 p.m.: The National Weather Service Fort Worth has issued its first-ever wind chill warning, which will affect portions of North Central, northeast and South Central Texas, which will be in effect until noon Tuesday. Wind chills could reach as low as 20 degrees below zero on Monday morning and 15 to 20 below zero on Tuesday morning.
What the sad part is.... In Tx. they want to do rolling black outs. Due to the extreme cold there, people run electricity more. So the cities have options to cut off power as an option to conserve energy.
Extreme cold and they want to cut off power? Smart...no
-First double digit high was yesterday(2/16) with a high of 12 -First above zero low...streak continues but could end tonight -Still waiting on the next 1"or more of snow(yesterday was .6)
Congratulations to @JAW and @Schnee Meister for accurately predicting our first double digit high.
Update III: Sunday snow Though many areas near MSP picked up over an 1” of snow, officially MSP came in with another .6. So we press on waiting for more snow!
It looks like with the exception of a day or two here and there this winter is over. Not a noteworthy winter by any means (except the cold two week stretch in February).
Heads Up!.....sneaky little snow system late Saturday into Sunday morning. I could see 3-5” band of snow very close to home. And then a spring preview after that for 7-10 days with numerous highs in the 40’s and 50’s.
Another winter that is over before even starting. (and do not mention the 2 weeks of 'cold' in February). This is MN. The 2 weeks in Feb should be the norm, not the exception.
On 2/21, DJ Kayser wrote on the Strib weather blog: "Through Saturday we have picked up 42.0" of snow so far this snow season at MSP airport. About 66% of that snow has fallen on four separate days: October 20, November 10, December 23, and January 23." Thus, even though it's warming up, winter is probably far from over. It's only February, after all! "Bring it," as PWL always says.
I made a wild guess couple weeks ago that today would hit 50*. Even though it didn't,(43* here) I'll just guess that this is the forefront of a string of 40's soon to follow.
Okay, this is interesting as I just contemplated it. I read that the Mpls Park Board is closing all skating rinks and that Lake of the Isles closed 2/25 due to warming temps. That rink was still closed late December (I was walking the lakes daily until the big blizzard came through in late Dec). I remember people skating on what I considered very thin ice/near open water, and the warming house was not open/signs were posted about weak ice in late Dec. So the rink was only open around two months. That seems FAR less than 'in the olden days.' Wow for this year! Is that the new norm or just this year's bizarre winter?
Sadly I think your answer lies right there in your question.....the new normal IS bizarre winters going forward. Each year will just be a new and surprising flavor of bizarre.
Thanks for weighing in. We have a WWA in the metro, now, for tonight/early tomorrow. Low end a couple of inches, but I'll dream for the possibility of a quick 5" at the high end of the forecast by the time it ends tomorrow morning.
GAME ON! That sneaky system I alluded to two days ago getting sneakier. Watches and Advisories are up in our CWA for tonight into tomorrow morning...NWS has 4-6" thru the core metro(with localized higher amounts). FINALLY some snow to speak of and track! Enjoy!
No kidding! Novak has parts of the metro in the bullseye for alter the traffic plans. I'm lamenting this winter/the demise of outdoor skating rinks, and then I see the 'fifth opportunity' for a semi-significant (well, 5 inches would be) snow dump over night. PWL should dance, dance, dance. Hope it holds to its potential. :+) Thanks for the update.
The storm this weekend really smells bad. Marginal temps from the surface all the way up to 850mb...lack of significant forcing at all levels...surface low that tracks well south of MN/WI. This has all the makings of a precipitation event that has a hard time making headlines. I'm actually much more worried about some ICE than snow. Freezing drizzle, etc.
ReplyDeleteYucky; freezing drizzle is becoming so much more common now, unless I am hallucinating. 1) thanks for the new thread, Bill and 2) thanks for visiting 'on the regular' Mr Novak. Much appreciated. I will watch for your updates on FB.
ReplyDeleteThe D zone looks to be warmer than the upper and lower atmo. surroundings
ReplyDeleteJust like a soggy tomato sandwich
NWS is saying less QPF is probable accorfing to dara data points now like I thought.
ReplyDelete06Z GFS ramped up the precip total for this weekend's system a bit, so it will be interesting to watch the next few runs. Max temp was 30 degrees, and it was only briefly during the longer-duration event.
ReplyDeleteWe all saw 2 storms ago the difference a couple of degrees can make, so it will also be interesting to track whether the temps peak near 30, or 32, or 34 and the affects that has on totals/types of precip.
It's going to make it a challenge to forecast!
THE LPS IS GOING TO YO-YO QUITE A BIT
ReplyDeleteSven is on board for a blockbuster late next week.
ReplyDeleteEarly read on this weekend: Some Snow!
ReplyDelete12Z model runs.....
-UKMET...3-4”
-EURO.....2-3”
-GFS........2-3”
-Canadian....1-2”
Jackpot looks again to be Iowa/Southern Wisconsin/Northern Illinois.
If we don't go below zero tonite (I don't think we will), there will be no below-zero temps this January. First time since 2006 I believe.
ReplyDeleteI don’t know about the rest of you but I think that’s great. I love Minnesota winters without the battery draining nose hair freezing arctic cold air. In my opinion this winter has been great minus the consistent snow cover but we have had snow cover now for over a month. It has snowed every month since October, 4 straight months and we are currently above average for snowfall with over 38” at MSP.....sure I wish every snow event was significant with over 6-8” every time and the metro sat in the bullseye each time but I believe except for the event 2 weeks ago where rain mixed in and was just too warm for all snow to accumulate each storm/precipitation since our first snowfall in October has been all snow so our temperatures have been cold enough for snow just not brutally cold. Just my two cents.
DeleteColor me confused...we could have temp issues for the coming storm but areas south of us are more likely to get plowable snow?
ReplyDeleteI think I'm missing something.
Better forcing will be south of us. Better forcing equals better intensity, so heavier snow will accumulate easier but it will also be wetter. We will have all snow this weekend just not as much since we will be on the northern fringes of the storm.
DeleteI like to use this site for a quick view of the GFS and the NAM.
ReplyDeletehttp://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=gfs&run=12&fhr=99&field=ptype
In the 12z you can see we are north of the main event this weekend, but in the bullseye for the next system next week. That will be fun to track!
Keep those dancin shoes laced up tight, PWL!!
I may have to do my "But it is still a week away" dance!!
ReplyDeleteBring it!!!
Why can't the Twin Cities ever be in the bullseye a major snowstorm the day of the event, instead of a week away? I will dance along with PWL for next week's snow event, but I am not going to get my hopes up this far out. We have all been down that road way too many times.
ReplyDeleteGuess you weren't alive on 12/23 when we had the blizzard. Or last easter.
DeleteNo genius, I wasn't.
DeleteOoopps...I meant to type "in the bullseye OF a major snowstorm"
ReplyDeleteI dislike freezing drizzle intensely. I remember back in the late 1990s when I went to a workshop in Iowa City, and there was sand 'everywhere'... sidewalks, roads, just everywhere. I asked why, and they said, 'We have freezing drizzle/ice rain a lot.' I thought, 'I'm glad I'm up in MSP.' Well, now it seems we get that stuff a lot, too. It's in the forecast for tonight and tomorrow. I miss good old cold and snow. The climate is definitely changing. The 1-2 inches of snow possible Saturday night is beautiful, but that possibility of a .1 of an inch of ice and 'little' to no ice accumulation is all we need for a skating rink out there.
ReplyDeleteWinter Weather Advisory from 4 a.m. tomorrow all the way until 6 a.m. Sunday...... the ice had disappeared from the forecast for a spell, but it's back. I hope the 1.5-2.5 inches of snow help take the edge of any slippery stuff. Stay safe everyone and enjoy the snow we get.
ReplyDeleteThe system for mid-late next week is going to be fun to watch evolve. Warm air mixing in (hopefully not over the Twin Cities) and intense cold after the storm which indicates quite the powerful system. NWS discussion this afternoon talks about low temperatures right after the storm moves through of up to -30!! Yikes!
ReplyDeleteSnow - Bring it!!!
I hope the -30 is up north. :+) Brrrrr. But snow, yeah, bring it, bring it, bring it. Dance, please.
DeleteLooks like not happening now
Deletebigdaddy are you referring to today's event? It does appear something shifted overnight. "Sad" as the ice totals remain 'same' and snow very much diminished. Is that what you mean by 'not happening now'? Thanks if you can tell me more.
DeleteNo, referring to mid week/late week system that pretty much went poof for us
DeleteThe next system for Thur and Friday dove south. Wow...that was a fast shift.
ReplyDeleteDon't be surprised, JAW, as I mentioned the other day...it's never good to be in the bullseye of a big storm a week away from the event. Of course things can still change, but the way this hapless winter has gone I would put Iowa and Chicago on alert...once again...for a big mid-week storm. In the meanwhile, MN will probably be left high and mostly dry...again...just like with today's system. The beat goes on. Someone once said that when a winter pattern sets in, it's very difficult to break it. That crossed my mind during the first three weeks of our hapless December. I had hoped the Christmas blizzard would break that pattern, but it didn't.
ReplyDeleteYes, not a good sign when both the GFS and EMCWF brought that next week's storm by Chicago.
ReplyDeletePaul Douglas has mentioned several times that a lack of airplanes flying overhead during the pandemic hurts weather forecasting because less data is flowing into computer models. So far nobody seems to be buying it around here, but today so far has been a 'nothing burger' and I literally altered some plans thinking that the ice mix was going to come as of last night. So far as of 4:50 p.m. nothing has happened where I live in the west metro. Now, I'm not complaining about a lack of ice and I hope it stays like that all the way to 6 a.m. tomorrow when the advisory is 'done' but I have egg on my face w/family regarding the icing event, the .1 of ice last night, and the .1 of ice today that 'disappeared' into a mixed precip forecast and then disappeared again into 'nothing' so far. I just feel like there has been less forecast accuracy this winter cycle. I won't post any links here about the airplane data theories though I found plenty including on NPR, but I'm glad to hear more planes flying overhead. Maybe that will be more data for forecast models. Stay safe/hoping for some s-n-o-w!
ReplyDeletePaul Douglas is a stooge and should be discounted for his far left wing beliefs which are based on propaganda and not facts. You’ve been duped by airplanes. Good luck.
DeleteSeek help. My god.
DeleteCheck out Tor Bergeron.
DeleteAn awesome atmospheric scientist.
I'm sure he pioneered aviation as a very good tool for acquiring certain data points.
Also...
DeleteOccluded fronts are the bomb imo
David, I don't think I've been duped by airplanes. I truly feel duped by 'off' forecasts this year especially. I used to be able to 99.9% depend on certain forecasts/forecasters/sites the past MANY years, and something is definitely 'off' the past year. It's not just PD talking about 'airplane data facts.' Good luck to you, too.
DeleteI will put one link; there are many, many of them. I've always been obsessed with weather/love weather/went to spotter trainings, so if the 'seek help' is meant for me, so be it. I only share what I've been reading and my awe at how the forecasts don't seem to be very accurate recently.
Deletehttps://www.airlines.iata.org/analysis/weather-forecasts-lack-data-due-to-covid-19
Well now that storm for next week is just gone and completely off the map. Wtf is going on with these models.
ReplyDeleteSee above. :+( I just looked out the window and 'nothing' here in St Louis Park. I see no new snowfall at all. Too bad the upcoming cold temps aren't as 'off' ha ha ha. Those will probably be all too real. Disappointing re: snow. Take care winter lovers. Be well/stay safe as we await the next snowfalls.
DeleteI wouldn't say the storm is completely gone. Sometimes models can really struggle when there is a lot of energy in the atmosphere and in a couple cases these storms will reappear just a few days before it hits. So don't have your head down just yet!
ReplyDeleteI agree, Davin! In fact, if you look at the latest GFS, it has quite a bit of wno happening over the next two weeks. I does not show the significant snow necessarily for later this week, but it does who the energy in the atmosphere that is present currently and coming up.
ReplyDeleteBring it!
Novak, I would love to hear your take on this upcoming week (and beyond if you want to indulge me/us)!
ReplyDeleteBring it!!
I like the optimism here! It’s happened a few times already this winter where it goes from above average temps to well below in a very short timeframe, and the the models struggle with the moisture forecast...until the storm is 2-3 days away.
ReplyDeleteHoping by tomorrow night into Tuesday we can start dialing this thing in for the snow lovers out there!
Interesting Department:
ReplyDeleteTonight’s 00Z model runs of the Euro and UKMET bring life back into Thursday system:
-EURO....4-5”
-UKMET....8-9”
Hey all, I really like the set-up for later this week. 500mb heights are dropping & are anomalies are lowering (This is key since it suggests a strengthening storm) as they head into the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, jet structure is solid with two jet streaks that are coupled right over MN/WI (Important since this suggests intense lift).
ReplyDeleteMy concerns are phasing & low level temps. However, I'm pretty confident that dynamic cooling will overcome the temp issue. So, if we can get this system to phase, then a potential Blizzard is on the way for rural MN/WI. So, phasing is the big issue to overcome & I'm relatively confident that it will occur, but definitely a close call.
Gut feeling is a 4"-8" snow accumulation in the MSP area with strong winds for all of the region. Wisconsin is in a more favorable position for phasing = higher confidence there.
Can you explain what phasing is for those of us who don't understand. :-)
DeletePhasing is when two separate jet streams and/or jet streaks combine as one. This often happens in a 'coupled' fashion where an area is located in the right rear and left front quad of said jet streaks. In is a classic upper air signature for Winter Storms.
ReplyDeleteNOAA snow chances keep going up (2-4 inches in the metro, now) for Thursday and Novak has us in the 'moderate/anticipate problems' forecast he put out today on FB. "Bring it!"
ReplyDelete4-8 is nowhere near what NWS is saying. I see 1-3. Novak is usually right though.
ReplyDeleteAnd of course the TC is dead-center in the cold hole starting later this week. ugh.
Well well well......I see you 12Z NAM and your 6-10” metro area wide....let’s see what your other model friends spit out today. But I like your where your heading NAM!
ReplyDeleteThe latest runs MSP Airport point forecast. Means little but fun to look at....
ReplyDeleteECMWF 12Z - 4.7
GDPS 12Z - 3.5
GFS: 12Z - 5.5
GFSV16 06Z - 7.1
NAM 12Z - 9.5
RDPS 12Z - 5.7
Take the average amount, divide by 2 = 3 inches.
DeleteThat's a cool formula!
DeleteAlright - lacing them up tighter than usual. Here we go!!
ReplyDeleteIf you haven't read the most recent NWS forecast discussion, you should. It is one of the most thorough discussions I have ever seen. They call out what they don't know and what they do know. They use words that make you think - some I had to google, but that's not saying much - and explain things in ways that I really appreciated. I read their discussion every time they put one out - twice per day. But this one is really good.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MPX&issuedby=MPX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Bring it!
I agree, PWL....that was a solid NWS discussion with good descriptions of all the variables at play (there are many). I liked hearing the similarities between their discussion and Novak’s, using a lot of the same terms like forcing and phasing.
DeleteA a snow lover, this was the sentence that I liked the most....“the GFS 02.12 shows
a surface low of 995mbThursday morning strengthening to 975mb Friday
morning. As this low strengthens, it will bring weather impacts
across Minnesota and Wisconsin.“
A system this big that is strengthening with each model run is exciting to watch! Maybe it will be like the blizzard earlier this year where it looked like a nuisance 1-3” a couple days before and grew to a blizzard for most of the state.
Bring it!
Going to be sad without an occluded front
ReplyDeleteThis is going to be one massive storm out in Wisconsin that is for sure! Sadly we are going to miss any heavier accumulations. I have a gut feeling MSP will only get around an inch of snow and east/south metro maybe 2-3.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately you are correct, so depressing! Wisconsin and Iowa get hit hard again and us here in the metro see a paltry inch maybe 2 and then the cold settles in and EVERYTHING gets suppressed south of us for at least 7-10+ days, thus the reason arctic air sucks. It just gets cold and boring around here.
DeleteLet's be honest. We all knew the storm was going to leave the TC metro high and dry...again. Remember, the TC was in the bullseye a week ago. That is always the kiss of death for the TC getting a big storm. The lame winter of 2020-21 slugs on.
ReplyDeleteWell we didn't 'all know' what could/will happen, but I agree that 1.5 to 3 inches will be pretty meager but better than zero. Let's see what we get tonight/tomorrow before the cold slaps us all in the face. I have been jealous watching those snow totals out east!
DeleteNot necessarily lame when the TC has nearly 40” this winter, but definitely get the frustration as it’s been a weird winter with 3 snowfalls in October and early November then record warmth followed by extended dry spell with a last minute white Christmas. It’s definitely not a “typical” winter but I wouldn’t call it lame considering like I said we’re at 40” and a good 2-3 months of snowfall still possible....we should at least break our yearly average of 54”.
DeleteI remember two years ago. Seemed to be a pretty lame winter. Then we got a major arctic blast to end January and begin February, after which it snowed nearly every other day for the next month.
DeleteI'd like to know what is the basis for a 'lame' winter definitions.
ReplyDeleteAs of today the TC is 3.7 inches above average (38.3 vs 34.6) with 7 inches of snow on the ground.
Boston 'the king of Nor'easters" stands at 24.3.
So really would like to know what the 'lame' winter advocates were expecting.
@John, winter fans enjoy consistently cold daytime temps in the teens/20's...not brutal cold, and consistent snowfall. As Big Daddy articulated, it has at least been a "weird" winter. Many people, myself included, would consider it to be in the "lame" category due to inconsistent snowfall, non-existent winter weather the first three weeks of December (average monthly temperatures 5.6 degrees above normal), not hitting zero even once in January (monthly average temperatures 6.5 degrees above normal), no consistent snowpack (7 inches on the ground on February 3rd in Minnesota is nothing to brag about), etc. This is Minnesota, not Boston (where it snows and usually melts within a few days. I know, because I used to live there). Winter fans want to enjoy the winter months, just like summmer fans want to enjoy the summer months. Imagine the widespread disappointment if the summer was cool and rainy with only occasional hot, sunny days. Averages can be very misleading. For example, I've seen two feet of snow fall in Boston from one storm and then a week later it was entirely melted away. The stats still reflect that two feet of snow fell, but it was nothing but a memory a week later. If the majority of that 38.3 inches of snow you mentioned was still on the ground, this would be an entirely different story. You can get 100 inches of snow, but if it consistently melts, that doesn't make for a fun consistent winter.
ReplyDeleteI dunno @1:30pm Anonymous. I disagree that this is a 'lame' winter. It's been different for sure with the unusual warmth and early non-sticking snow but it's been a wonderful winter for actually getting out and enjoying nature with the warmer temps (and much appreciated during covid too!).
DeleteI think most here would say they are weather fans first and foremost. I mean sure, most probably have a preference for one season over another but it's the day-to-day, month-to-month and year-to-year variety that keeps things interesting.
To each their own, I guess!
I think this is a great discussion, and it seems to boil down to perception and preferences (which is hard to argue).
ReplyDeleteSure, we can talk about temp and snowfall averages, but Anon makes a good point that there's even context in those numbers that has to be considered.
Overall I sign up for every winter to be weird now. I can't remember a spring in the past 20 years where I looked back and said "Well look at that...a traditionally normal winter." Every year seems to have more extremes and in different combinations.
We don't have any control over any of it (on a day to day basis anyway...we can help curb the effects of climate change on a larger scale). So I will continue to enjoy the hell out of the weirdness and appreciate it when the weather gives us entertainment!
On a side note....it was good to see the 12z GFS grow tomorrow's storm by 30% more precip!
The next 24 hours is going to be more than interesting. I'm still fairly confident that a narrow (30 to 50 mi. wide) frontogenetic band of heavy snow will develop somewhere in southern MN/western WI. This could very well be near or in portions of the MSP metro.
ReplyDeleteReason being, guidance continues to show a 80 to 100 knot jet streak developing over northern MN by morning. This would place portions of so. MN/WI in the right rear quad of said jet streak = 3 to 6 hour of enhanced lift.
Should be fun to watch this unfold.
Great conversation, Everyone! I really appreciate each others' points of view and the fact that we can all share our thoughts in a mature and respectful manner. I happen to agree with many of Anon's points, but then again I am a hardcore winter junkie! lol If it was up to me, winter would set in around Thanksgiving each year and be consistently cold and snowy until the end of March. I would then want sun and 70 degrees! Ahhh, but as we all know, it doesn't work that way, so let's just enjoy the weather as it comes. I will state that first and foremost, I just love the weather and its many facets throughout the year. Here's hoping for a snowy/cold February and March! I also want to give a shout out to Mr. Novak for his weather insights and accurate forecasting. Thanks for stopping by to share with us, Mr. Novak!
ReplyDeleteMan not to jump ahead but maybe well have some luck next week. Latest gfs is showing Iowa getting hammered next week. Maybe the point of not being in the bullseye right away will hold true...
ReplyDeleteWe can only hope. Fingers crossed!
Delete@Ben unfortunately thats just wishing thinking then meteorology. The arctic cold will suppress any meaningful precip from getting to MSP for at least the next 7-10+ days after our brief event today(flurries/snow showers/dustings/coatings, sure but nothing meaningful) thats because the baroclinic zone will setup south of us next week or two, watch for several accumulating snow events coming out of Montana rounding thru South Dakota heading for Iowa and points east, thats where they will be measuring snow,as for us in MSP make sure you have your heavy jackets and gloves and hats and a good book because it will be damn cold and boring.Arctic air most times isnt our friend!
DeleteI think all we get next week is the ability to show our kids cool science experiments involving boiling water in arctic air. Arctic sunshine is cool too.
ReplyDeleteDon’t look now but we could be surprised in terms of snow for. the overnight and the morning....latest 18Z NAM putting down 4-5” in the heart of the metro and the latest HRRR has 3-6” from north of the core to south of the core. Could be more then the 1-2”/1-3” I have been hearing a lot over the past 24-36 hours!
ReplyDeleteMr Novak is going 'live' on FB at 9 p.m. tonight for those of you who are on FB. Thanks for the update, bigdaddy. Hope PWL is dancing.
ReplyDeleteWow GFS showing 6 inches of snow for MSP now!
ReplyDeleteThe pavement was turned into a skating rink tonight west of the metro! That little line that moved through earlier left just enough of an ice glaze to ruin the nightly dog walk. Untreated roads are going to be terrible. Careful out there!
ReplyDeleteSleet/freezing rain over to snow about 30 minutes ago, in Golden Valley. Solid glaze of ice under now the coating of snow. Its going to be a bad morning rush hour. Lets see how much snow accumulates.
ReplyDeleteStill have mix precip.
ReplyDeleteForcing is weak.
Occlusion to far south in Oklahoma.
Cyclogenesis is in Kansas.
Temps still 32.
Yuck
It's all snow in St Louis Park now, but I heard a lot of ice pellets coming down earlier. The sound of scrapers on windows as people try to get the ice off their vehicles is non-stop and energetic.
ReplyDeleteWe got 1-2 in Roseville, so spot-on with the NWS forecast, even days ago. I tend to go with their forecasts, which distills the models and avoids the hysteria.
ReplyDeleteNWS was far from spot on, maybe for Roseville they were, but they totally blew(as did others) the heavy band of snow that fell 20-30 miles NW of the metro, several 4-6" amounts where the going forecast was for an 1" or less.
Delete1.9 inches Chanhassen/ 2.1 inches MSP airport per NOAA.
ReplyDelete4 in Rochester
ReplyDeleteSeveral clipper-type systems will track across the Plains to Midwest,
ReplyDeleteall to the south of our forecast area. The storm track will remain
suppressed to our south throughout the period with low to zero PoPs
in the NBM. High temperatures will remain in the single digits
through the forecast period with lows in the single digits to teens
below zero each night. Wind chill advisories/headlines will likely be
needed next week as winds are expected to strengthen after Sunday
night. By mid-week, most deterministic guidance brings another
strong surface high pressure into Montana, once again dropping
surface temperatures below zero for Thursday and Friday. The one
outlier solution would be the 12Z ECMWF, which tries to develop a low
pressure in the central Plains and track into the Ohio River valley
for Thursday/Friday. This would delay the reinforcing lobe of Arctic
air until next weekend. Regardless, temperatures mid to late week
continue to trend downward with the potential for another strong
Arctic high pressure to slide into the northern CONUS.
This is why I’m NO fan of Arctic air, one because it gets too damn cold around here and two it gets really dull in the active weather department. Sucks for snowlovers, yet I watch my family back home get battered by snow storm after storm. Jealous!
That NWS discussion is exactly what I was referring to the other day. The baroclinic zone has setup shop. Too bad its south of us.
DeleteIf it’s going to be boring for awhile let’s have some fun with numbers: give me your predictions on when the next time the night time low doesn’t have a “-“negative symbol in front of it and the next day our high temp gets into double digits(above zero) and just for fun for us snowlovers the next 1” or more of snow, I’ll start.
ReplyDelete-Feb. 17th for a above zero low
-Feb. 15th for a double digit high
-Feb. 20th next 1” or more
Ok @bigdaddy heres my predictions:
ReplyDeleteFebruary 15th for both the above zero low and double digit high.
February 17th for the more then 1"
Feb 15 low above zero
ReplyDeleteFeb 14 double digit high
Feb 15 1"+ of snow........... and that, folks, as you will see, is why I am NOT a meteorologist! :+) But it was fun guessing.
I guess not too many people are interested in the real cold numbers, neither am I, was just something to pass the time till we actually get some more winter weather falling from the sky to talk about. I guess we’re rolling with me, Jon and WeatherGeek with the predictions....let the best weather nut win!
ReplyDeleteTime to chime in. Sorry about the delay @bigdaddy. I love what you are doing.
ReplyDeleteFeb. 16 - Above Zero Low
Feb. 17 - Double Digit High
Feb. 18 - 1+ inch of snow.
Pretty close to everyone else. So darn cold - the problem with the snow cover we have.
Which brings up a point to make to the "it never snows here". Well, it does snow and we are right near average. The bonus we have this year is that we have continuous snow cover for winter activities. We had the early snow in October/November and then it was very mild from mid-November until the nice storm we had around December 23. And since then, we have had a really nice solid snow cover. If we didn't have that, people would be complaining about the brown grass, bare spots, crusty snow, etc. We have a solid layer of snow cover and it isn't going anywhere. The piles on the sides of driveways and roads are significant and not shrinking. We get snow just in time when/if it does start to go down.
This is pretty cool and what makes Minnesota unique - continuous snow cover.
Bring it.
I'm in too!
ReplyDeleteFeb. 16 - next double digit high temperature
Feb. 16 - next above zero low temperature
Feb. 11 - next 1 inch of snow. That's right, I'm going out on the limb and banking on this Thursday for a little more of the white stuff!
22 days until meteorological spring
ReplyDeleteFeb. 17 - Above Zero Low
ReplyDeleteFeb. 16 - Double Digit High
Feb. 13 - 1+ inch of snow.
Feb 18 for both Above Zero Low and DD High
ReplyDelete1" snow or more Feb 22nd.
And I also go on a limb and predict first 60 degree by March 5th.
Wow a few more participants! Welcome aboard PWL, Schnee Meister, JAW and Mark....all solid predictions especially when the next 1” or more will fall, seems as though a lot of variation with that one.
ReplyDeleteAnd @Mark even though your 60 is possible I for one hope it doesn’t come true, March to me is still winter regardless of the the March 1st or March 21st date....seems to be lately that April is still winter with the major snowfalls we have had the last couple of April’s. Time will tell this year, my gut feeling is spring will be delayed yet again.
@bigdaddy
DeleteI agree with you. I'd like to see March (and also April if possible) as winters months myself but this winter has been all-or-nothing entrenched patterns and I have a gut feeling that once this cold gets dislodged we will move to a southerny-flow regime.
I still remember the 80 degrees by St Patrick's day a few years ago....
Feb 26...first 50��
ReplyDeleteI think I’d put my $ on Feb 26th being the first 30!
DeleteLook at these national advisories... so many impacted by adverse weather right now. https://petertooley.tinytake.com/tt/NTEwMjc0Ml8xNjAyMDcyOQ
ReplyDeleteAbout 7" of snow in my home town today possible...
ReplyDeleteDFW TX.
6 p.m.: The National Weather Service Fort Worth has issued its first-ever wind chill warning, which will affect portions of North Central, northeast and South Central Texas, which will be in effect until noon Tuesday. Wind chills could reach as low as 20 degrees below zero on Monday morning and 15 to 20 below zero on Tuesday morning.
ReplyDeleteShazzbot.
So basically Minnesota in Texas.
DeleteSad state of weather affairs when a Minnesota weather blog is tracking Texas weather for excitement.
What the sad part is....
ReplyDeleteIn Tx. they want to do rolling black outs. Due to the extreme cold there, people run electricity more.
So the cities have options to cut off power as an option to conserve energy.
Extreme cold and they want to cut off power? Smart...no
Pitchers and catchers report this week.
ReplyDeleteLight at the end of an extremely long, cold, dark tunnel!
Odds we actually see 40 on Monday?
ReplyDeleteUpdate:
ReplyDeleteCold snap eases...
-First double digit high was yesterday(2/16) with a high of 12
-First above zero low...streak continues but could end tonight
-Still waiting on the next 1"or more of snow(yesterday was .6)
Congratulations to @JAW and @Schnee Meister for accurately predicting our first double digit high.
Update II:
DeleteWe had our first above zero low on 2/18.
Congratulations to Mark for accurately predicting our first low above zero in quite some time.
Will the next inch of snow be tomorrow?
Update III:
DeleteSunday snow
Though many areas near MSP picked up over an 1” of snow, officially MSP came in with another .6.
So we press on waiting for more snow!
Talk of snow on Sunday! Let's go! Bring it!!!!!
ReplyDeleteI'm ready for something in the snow department. After all this frigid weather, bring it, indeed.
ReplyDeleteNOAA is now predicting 1-2" in the metro Sunday afternoon.
ReplyDeleteIowa gets the snow yet once more. So many storms have slid just to the south of MN this season.
ReplyDeleteIt’s a week out, but the GFS is layin down a shot of cold and snow next Sunday.
ReplyDeleteJust a little something to keep things interesting!
It looks like with the exception of a day or two here and there this winter is over. Not a noteworthy winter by any means (except the cold two week stretch in February).
ReplyDeleteHeads Up!.....sneaky little snow system late Saturday into Sunday morning. I could see 3-5” band of snow very close to home. And then a spring preview after that for 7-10 days with numerous highs in the 40’s and 50’s.
ReplyDelete"after that for 7-10 days with numerous highs in the 40’s and 50’s"
ReplyDeleteBRING IT!
Another winter that is over before even starting.
ReplyDelete(and do not mention the 2 weeks of 'cold' in February). This is MN. The 2 weeks in Feb should be the norm, not the exception.
Ah yes, we've reached the part of the season when someone on this site declares winter over.
ReplyDeleteThat cold snap we had was almost record-breaking. Any temperature below zero is by definition below average.
Have you seen the outlook for March?
DeleteOn 2/21, DJ Kayser wrote on the Strib weather blog: "Through Saturday we have picked up 42.0" of snow so far this snow season at MSP airport. About 66% of that snow has fallen on four separate days: October 20, November 10, December 23, and January 23." Thus, even though it's warming up, winter is probably far from over. It's only February, after all! "Bring it," as PWL always says.
ReplyDeleteI've seen the outlook and I'm loving it. Bring on the melt! BRING ALL OF IT!
ReplyDeleteI made a wild guess couple weeks ago that today would hit 50*.
ReplyDeleteEven though it didn't,(43* here) I'll just guess that this is the forefront of a string of 40's soon to follow.
Choo Choo!
Okay, this is interesting as I just contemplated it. I read that the Mpls Park Board is closing all skating rinks and that Lake of the Isles closed 2/25 due to warming temps. That rink was still closed late December (I was walking the lakes daily until the big blizzard came through in late Dec). I remember people skating on what I considered very thin ice/near open water, and the warming house was not open/signs were posted about weak ice in late Dec. So the rink was only open around two months. That seems FAR less than 'in the olden days.' Wow for this year! Is that the new norm or just this year's bizarre winter?
ReplyDeleteSadly I think your answer lies right there in your question.....the new normal IS bizarre winters going forward. Each year will just be a new and surprising flavor of bizarre.
DeleteThanks for weighing in. We have a WWA in the metro, now, for tonight/early tomorrow. Low end a couple of inches, but I'll dream for the possibility of a quick 5" at the high end of the forecast by the time it ends tomorrow morning.
DeleteGAME ON! That sneaky system I alluded to two days ago getting sneakier. Watches and Advisories are up in our CWA for tonight into tomorrow morning...NWS has 4-6" thru the core metro(with localized higher amounts). FINALLY some snow to speak of and track! Enjoy!
ReplyDeleteNo kidding! Novak has parts of the metro in the bullseye for alter the traffic plans. I'm lamenting this winter/the demise of outdoor skating rinks, and then I see the 'fifth opportunity' for a semi-significant (well, 5 inches would be) snow dump over night. PWL should dance, dance, dance. Hope it holds to its potential. :+) Thanks for the update.
Delete40s most of next week. Can’t wait.
DeleteOh boy.....
ReplyDeleteNew thread - at long last.
ReplyDelete