A storm to kick off 2023 - but will it be rain or snow?

NWS says with 99% confidence that a storm will bring significant moisture early next week. However, there will be the classic “rain/snow” line that could spell wildly different results depending on where that axis lands. 

Will everyone north of Iowa see snow? Or will the metro receive liquid precipitation? 

Time to prognosticate!

More Snow Before Warmth?

Before the bitter siege ends, there may be one more shot at measurable snow on Christmas night before the weather pattern warms and perhaps yields ... wait for it ... liquid.

A snowy lead up to Christmas?

After another storm that beat at least my own expectations, and ensuing cold, the metro looks to be on track for a white Christmas. 

Now the question is - is more in store in the next week?

From the 12/18 AM NWS forecast discussion summarizing the current state of mid-week models:

Suffice it to say that great uncertainty remains 

on the precipitation potential from midweek on.

Full Discussion from NWS 

What are your thoughts? 

 

 

[Programming note - I will be traveling from 12/20 to 12/31. Bill has kindly agreed to keep an eye on the site and post a new thread if needed.]

Snow chances Thursday into Friday, and early next week

NWS has the southern metro and much of southern Minnesota in the area for accumulating snow Thursday night into Friday.

Looking ahead, the long range forecast discussion talks of a system from Monday to Wednesday with a lot of uncertainty.

From NWS:

at this point it looks like mainly snow to start later on Monday, with a transition to mixed precipitation during the day on Tuesday from south to north. Tuesday night as the column cools it looks like the forecast area will transition back to snow and remain mainly snow on Wednesday. How much snow could we potentially get? That will depend on the track of the cyclone.