After another storm that beat at least my own expectations, and ensuing cold, the metro looks to be on track for a white Christmas.
Now the question is - is more in store in the next week?
From the 12/18 AM NWS forecast discussion summarizing the current state of mid-week models:
Suffice it to say that great uncertainty remains
on the precipitation potential from midweek on.
Full Discussion from NWS
What are your thoughts?
[Programming note - I will be traveling from 12/20 to 12/31. Bill has kindly agreed to keep an eye on the site and post a new thread if needed.]
Thank you for the new thread; safe travels on the trip and thank you, Bill, for monitoring while Dave is gone. Mr. Novak posted on his FB page that blizzard-like conditions appear likely in a large area around here mid week. He added a map showing "moderate/blizzard potential" Wednesday/Thursday. He knows a lot of folks will be traveling and is trying get the word out to stay aware of latest forecasts. Let's see what happens.
ReplyDeleteAt 8:52 PM this evening Novak posted on twitter that a blizzard is likely from Duluth south through the Twin Cities and southern MN Wednesday-Friday.
ReplyDeleteIf the Euro 18Z is anything to go by we have a snow storm but I won't even be slightly confident in that track until tomorrow nights model runs.
ReplyDeleteNovak’s map has MSP smack dab in the the middle of the “high” risk for travel impact with a “blizzard likely” sub text, yet the subsequent post calls it a “potential” winter storm with “a lot still to be ironed out” with a “high bust potential”. Which is it? I generally find his posts relatively grounded, but “Likely blizzard” and “high bust potential” don’t belong in the same post.
ReplyDeleteMy guess is because of Christmas travel this week, he, and all media outlets, are trying to get people's attention well ahead of any weather that may come-
DeleteHi Davin, do you have a link for the 18z Euro? I am wondering what Novak is seeing that others apparently are not. I have not found any other outlet calling for a blizzard in Minnesota. They all are focusing on Wisconsin and points east.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.pivotalweather.com/ but you might have to be a sub to view the 6/18z models
DeleteCool website; thanks for the link.
DeleteGFS has made a big push north, looks like us weather geeks are in for good times
ReplyDeleteGFS is making it look real nice for mn and iowa... I think it will push north some more yet too, bring that bullseye closer to us.
ReplyDeleteI see winter storm watches effective Thursday-Saturday have now been posted for eastern Nebraska and the western two-thirds of Iowa, up to the Minnesota border. The Twin Cities NWS still seems uncertain about the storm's effects on Minnesota. Overnight, the Euro and GFS have come into agreement of 6-7 inches for eastern/southern Minnesota starting Wednesday. Exciting, except the timing for holiday travel could not be worse.
ReplyDeleteThanks for all the updates, folks. Much appreciated. It will definitely be an interesting holiday week. I look forward to more of your posts about what you see on models, etc. PWL: are you dancing?
ReplyDeleteOooo Laaaah Laaaah. Winter Storm Watch for long duration event in the metro. I don't remember a watch for so many days. It starts 12/21 at 6 a.m. all the way through 12/24 at 6 a.m. And there are lots of inches of snow currently in the forecast on Wed and Th. PWL: "bring it!"
ReplyDeleteBig Snow Fan
ReplyDeleteWhooo Hooo!!! Can’t wait! I’m enjoying the snow we’re getting right now, too
DeleteYes, it's a beautiful appetizer to be sure. Novak says on his FB video that he has 'never seen in his years' a potential storm like this one. I asked if it has Halloween Blizzard potential; I will have to check to see if he answers back. It will be a very tough week for travelers. But for we who love snow...... let it snow!
DeleteThat’s not what he said. He was talking about the overall week of weather and not having seen a wintery forecast like this.
DeleteOkay, Anonymous. We interpret his comments differently, even though your comment to me is echoing what I said. But again, I guess we differ in what we hear. Have a good evening, and let's see how it all unfolds this week.
DeleteAnon why would he say he's never seen a forecast like this before we're in mn we get plenty of cold and snow. He was talking about the blizzard setup.
DeleteRight, Ben. If it could hold together/be multi-day/churn out enough snow, it could remind some of us of that Halloween Blizzard in '91. That week was 'something else' and blizzard it was!! Time will tell. I'm enjoying watching the numbers people are posting from the different models they are watching.
DeleteGreat questions. You’d have to ask him. But watch the video and it’s quite clear what he said.
DeleteHis Facebook post says essentially the same thing he said in the video: "I can't recall the last time I've seen such a hard-core Wintry 7 day forecast."
DeleteI'd say it's pretty clear he's not talking about the storm specifically.
Dont look now but the latest gfs is looking pretty promising for msp area...
ReplyDeleteWhat numbers is it pushing out? Maybe in the morning post the latest?? It's good we are getting such a lengthy 'heads up.'
Delete18z GFS cranks out 12" for the Metro
DeleteAwesome. Thank you for the current number. Have a good evening.
DeleteDancing, dancing, dancing!!! This is awesome. The number of days with it snowing are so much more than without it snowing. Just rocks. Bring it!!! Might need to get some depends!!! Bring tit!!
ReplyDeleteThe last two model runs of the GFS, EURO, NAM and UKMET have really backed off on snow amounts for MN. They are all showing generally 3-4 inches. Yesterday they were showing 6-8 inches. NWS discussion this morning still said the entire MN area might receive 6 inches or more.
ReplyDeleteYikes! The Weather Channel this morning seemed to show heavier snow to the east of the metro as well with any snow ending here Wednesday evening. Sad face. Mainly winds and cold it will seem? Yuck.
ReplyDeletei dont know what these 2 above me are looking at but the GFS is still dropping 10 inches of snow 06z model. or they cant read a map...
ReplyDeleteYup I see the same. I always look at the Kuchera. If you are looking at the 10:1 it's 4.5", that's pretty misleading with how cold it's going to be.
DeleteI knew when I decided to drive home to MN from NC that winter weather could change my plans. Ugh.
ReplyDeleteI've already adjusted the Thursday leg of my drive from WV/OH/IN to TN/Southern IL/St. Louis to stay in the warm sector for the longest stretch possible. I have no idea what I'll do Friday. My destination for Friday is Waverly, IA. Hopefully, snowfall amounts are low on that stretch so that the winds don't have much to blow around.
Safe travels to you, Joel.
DeleteNovak put out a map 13 hours ago that had MSP in an area of 6-10 inches. However, if the storm nudges/wobbles/goes east.......... I guess that is why my late/great dad always told me when I got excited about storms, "I'll believe it when I see it." Maybe it will wobble back our way?
ReplyDeleteLatest Runs: (snow ratio 10-1) Total Through Saturday 00Z
ReplyDeleteECMWF
2.1 06Z
GDPS
3.5 00Z
GFS
4.4 06z
NAM
2.1 12z
Blend
4.9 12z
RDPS
3.5 12z
UKMET
2.6 00Z
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteAnother snide comment from ben @8:08AM, imagine that. If I recall, ben is the same person who recently attacked a poster as being a troll. Instead of attacking others (ben quote: "or they can't read a map..."), why don't you try educating them. Perhaps you know more about and/or are more familiar with weather models and snow ratios than are others. If one views today's GFS 06z model, for example, as ben suggests, they will see there are two snow ratio options, the 10:1 ratio and the Kuchera method, which is generally considered a more accurate, but not perfect, method to determine snowfall amounts, due to its ability to take into account temperature and mixing of warmer or colder air. The GFS 06z model today shows 10 inches for the metro (Kuchera method) and 4 inches for the metro (10:1 ratio). The GFS 06z, 12z and 18z runs yesterday reflected 16, 14, and 15 inches, respectively, for the metro (Kuchera method) and 6-7 inches (10:1 ratio). Therefore, the two posters this morning who commented that snow amounts have fallen over the past couple of GFS model runs are correct. I didn't check the other model runs as I have other work I need to be doing. Suffice it to say, I think at least most of us on here are cheering for more snow as opposed to less snow. Regardless, how about ALL of us try showing one another some kindness and respect!
ReplyDeleteAgreed.
DeleteIf someone can go on and look up the weather forecast and the models and get to the snowfall map, they then should be able to hit the question mark next to each on and see what they mean... im not a teacher...
DeleteLets please give one another the benefit of the doubt in online exchanges where tone is not always clear. That goes for everyone posting.
DeleteLets focus on the forecasts and be nice.
Agreed! Thank you, Schnee Meister
DeleteLatest Runs: (snow ratio Kuchera Ratio) Total Through Saturday 00Z
ReplyDeleteECMWF
5.2 06Z
GDPS
8.3 00Z
GFS
11.2 06z
NAM
4.6 12z
RDPS
7.9 12z
This is the source for my comment above. https://www.pivotalweather.com (click "models" to view the various models - GFS, EURO, NAM, UKMET, etc.).
ReplyDeleteThank you.
DeleteLatest Runs: (snow ratio Kuchera Ratio) Total Through Saturday 00Z
ReplyDeleteECMWF
5.6 12Z
GDPS
7.5 12Z
GFS
10.3 12Z
NAM
4.6 12z
RDPS
7.9 12z
Thanks for providing these model updates!
DeleteNWS has increased the snow totals in the local area forecast for Plymouth/Maple Grove from 4-8 inches to 6-12 inches Wednesday (4-8 inches) and Wednesday night (2-4 inches).
ReplyDeleteHave not seen any updates since 6 am or so this morning, when will the next batch be coming out?
ReplyDeleteWinter Storm Warnings and Blizzard Warnings just posted by Twin Cities NWS.
ReplyDeleteYou beat me to it, Joe! Winter Storm Warning, I've been waiting for you all day. Stay safe, all. "Monster storm." 5-8+ inches and 50 mph winds = hazardous conditions, to be sure. I look forward to following the posts here.
DeleteNovak posted his 7 day forecast after lunch today. Twin Cities 5-7+” Wed-Thurs then blizzard conditions. He also posted a travel impact map about 3 pm with high impact that covers over 3/4 of MN and points east, south, & west. I don’t have social media accounts so I can ask him any questions. I really appreciate all the work he does; especially warning us early about travel impacts.
ReplyDeleteIt’s really simple to sign up for a free social media account even if you only use it for few reasons.
DeleteAlmost every year there has been discussion of taking this blog to FB, but there are some folks that just for many reasons do not wish to be on there, and I respect that.
Delete@Anonymous - I also do not have a single social media account, and I am a software engineer in my 30s. Its not for lack of ease that some of us do not engage in social media!
DeleteNovak just (11 minutes ago, so around 7:25 p.m.) posted another snow totals map. He has the metro area in a 5-8" swath of snow and says there will be some 'ironing out of details.' I must add: it is very interesting to see a Winter Storm Warning posted for the 21st/22nd and then another Winter Storm Watch posted for the 22nd through the 24th simultaneously at the NOAA site.
ReplyDeleteOh, and I wanted to add/forgot to say: I first learned about Mr Novak and his work/predictions from THIS BLOG many years ago. That is how I discovered him. And I agree with Jason that Mr Novak does very impressive work regarding winter storms around here. Have a good evening/stay safe, snow lovers.
ReplyDeleteYes, Novak is great! One of my “todo’s” for the blog is to reach out and see if he would occasionally grace us with a comment like he used to :). I always enjoyed the videos that he and Bill did.
DeleteLooking at the latest model runs seems to lower snow totals across southern MN with the dreaded dry slot (or something like that). The other thing is this is very puffy and light snow. Really seems the bigger story will be the high winds late Thursday with the brutal cold.
ReplyDeleteWishing ya’ll a good storm and safe holiday travels! I am in the summer of the Southern Hemisphere for Christmas, so I will be watching the snow pile up in my yard via webcam pointed out my office window :)
ReplyDeleteAnyone with access to the models post what they are showing for snowfall accumulation this morning?
ReplyDeleteLatest Runs: (snow ratio Kuchera Ratio) Total Through Saturday 00Z (MSP Airport)
DeleteECMWF
8.4 06z
GDPS
9.9 00z
GFS
8.9 06z
HRV FV3 12Z
8.6
NAM
9.4 12z
NAM 3KM
7.7 12Z
RDPS
8.5 06Z
I'm cancelling my drive home to MN. This storm better not be a bust!
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting; 5-10" fluffy snow through late tonight in the metro per meteorologist Keith M on Fox 9 weather forecast just now. Thursday morning is 'intermission' he says, and then the high winds kick in Th afternoon through Friday. He said this snow would only be around 2-3 inches if it were not so cold to fluff it up. Fascinating.
DeleteStay safe, Joel F!
DeleteHere comes the start of the fun!!! Bring it!!
ReplyDeleteThey bumped up the snow totals on novak and nws
ReplyDeleteThank you, Dyson Guy! Totals do look to have been bumped up! Bring it!
ReplyDeleteNovak just released a video update on the storm. https://twitter.com/NovakWeather?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
ReplyDeleteBlizzard and Winter storm warnings updated
ReplyDeleteSnow seems to be having a difficult time really getting going. Darker echoes show up on radar only to dissipate as they reach the metro. It has actually stopped snowing here in Maple Grove. It snowed lightly and steadily from 8AM to 1PM. We picked up 1.5-2 inches.
ReplyDeleteDitto here in St Louis Park. I feel like we are in a dry slot and I see some white openings on the radar. Let's see how it goes the rest of today/tonight.
DeleteWith the storm right on the door step here's the final MSP Model snow totals post I'll make. All have been pretty consistent with minor fluctuations between runs. Stay safe everyone.
ReplyDeleteLatest Runs: (snow ratio Kuchera Ratio) Total Through Saturday 00Z
ECMWF
8.4 12z
GDPS
9.4 12z
GFS
6.7 12z
HRV FV3 12Z
8.6
NAM
9.4 12z
NAM 3KM
7.7 12Z
RDPS
9.0 12z
Thanks for the update, DysonGuy. This dry slot has gotta get moving where I am.........
DeleteYes, thank you for the model updates, DysonGuy! Let it snow!
ReplyDeleteSnow has restarted. Snowing lightly and steadily as it did all morning. Here's hoping for an increase in snow intensity so we can still pick up several inches. Stay home if you can...otherwise, be safe out there. A lot of spinouts and crashes are occurring.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the model updates, DysonGuy!
ReplyDeleteIt is snowing the hardest it has snowed all day for this event right now in Golden Valley, easily 6”….will get a final tally in the morning
ReplyDelete7.5” final tally! Easily a very very white Christmas!! Enjoy the holidays to all my fellow winter weather enthusiasts.
DeleteWell, I've been listening to plows all night/they're still at it in my busy neighborhood here in St Louis Park, and MSP airport has a record daily observation of 7.4 inches of snow from this system. Chan has 5.4 on their 'daily observation' I just checked. And there is a 50% chance of more snow plus the wind chill warnings/storm warnings in place until Saturday at 6 a.m. Quite a long-lasting system. Stay warm and safe, all of you.
ReplyDeleteUpdated totals/corrections: in 24 hrs MSP got 8.1" total. Chanhassen: 7.0.
ReplyDeleteLet’s bring on the next couple of inches!! Christmas evening and night. That would be the icing on the Christmas cake! Doing the Icing Dance. Bring it!!
ReplyDeleteI’m not expecting much for Christmas but stopping to look out the window, maybe I should. Hoping for an overachiever system again. What a fun stretch of snow we have had; makes me think I’m back in the UP.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the models are generally calling for 2-4 inches for the metro Christmas night.
ReplyDeleteThe Icing Dance is working!! NAM brings 6+ close to home!!
ReplyDeleteNew thread set up for possible X-mas night snow... (this is Bill/Anonymous)
ReplyDelete