Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
Friday, December 23, 2022
More Snow Before Warmth?
Before the bitter siege ends, there may be one more shot at measurable snow on Christmas night before the weather pattern warms and perhaps yields ... wait for it ... liquid.
I hope everybody had/is having a great holiday! Some of us took all this week off from work! The models and local NWS are hinting at a possible sizeable snowstorm for southern MN, including the Twin Cities, for next week?
@shnee meister - it does look like something brewing.. From NWS:
The next main chance for precipitation comes early next week. This looks to be more of a significant synoptically driven system associated with a long wave trough. Model runs have consistently been tracking a surface low into the Upper Midwest. The exact track of this low does vary between models and members. The track of this low will be very important as the warm sector will be rain and the cold sector will be snow.
The model trends the past couple of days have reflected the Euro taking next week's system south of MN, which would be an all snow scenario (several inches) for southern/central MN. The GFS clearly is favoring the northern track. In fact, the GFS doesn't show any snow for the metro and points south until next Wednesday evening (January 4), and then it only shows 1 inch. I believe the Christmas storm we just had demonstrated a similar pattern between the Euro and GFS, in that the Euro favored snow; the GFS did not, but eventually the GFS came in line with the Euro? Suffice to say, I am hoping the Euro is correct for next week's storm. It will be fun to watch and track. Also, while I am welcoming the warmer weather to help clear the roads and make playing in the snow more enjoyable, I am hoping this warm up doesn't get out of hand and get too warm. So far it appears it should stay in check with highs in the 30's for several days. The closer to freezing, the better!
Dave/Schnee Meister: thanks for the updates on models/tracking predictions. I may be quiet at times, but I'm always monitoring the news on this blog. Cheers for more snow!
Will we get 1-2" of snow tomorrow night plus a half inch during the day like the National Weather Service is predicting as of 'now'???? Can't wait to see. It sure felt like March today, which seemed odd to me.
And just as I was writing that, Mr Novak posted a graphic of ice v snow slicing through the metro later in the day through early evening. He says the 'potential is there for a messy day' and especially between '5-10 p.m.' so prayers up we just get some good old snow. Stay safe everyone if it gets slick out there.
Thanks for putting up the new thread, Bill!
ReplyDeleteThis was a nice stretch of productive snow storms for these first two months of the season.
Now all I want for Christmas is no rain until March!
Merry Christmas MN Forecaster blog fans! Anyone have model access for the potential Christmas snow tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteMerry Christmas!! Novak has 1-3” with the snow centered on the Twin Cities. Models I saw today had snow to the west.
ReplyDeleteI hope everybody had/is having a great holiday! Some of us took all this week off from work! The models and local NWS are hinting at a possible sizeable snowstorm for southern MN, including the Twin Cities, for next week?
ReplyDeleteThe snow was fun last week although I could have done without the bitter cold. Enjoy the warmup this week!
ReplyDelete@shnee meister - it does look like something brewing..
ReplyDeleteFrom NWS:
The
next main chance for precipitation comes early next week. This looks
to be more of a significant synoptically driven system associated
with a long wave trough. Model runs have consistently been tracking
a surface low into the Upper Midwest. The exact track of this low
does vary between models and members. The track of this low will be
very important as the warm sector will be rain and the cold sector
will be snow.
The model trends the past couple of days have reflected the Euro taking next week's system south of MN, which would be an all snow scenario (several inches) for southern/central MN. The GFS clearly is favoring the northern track. In fact, the GFS doesn't show any snow for the metro and points south until next Wednesday evening (January 4), and then it only shows 1 inch. I believe the Christmas storm we just had demonstrated a similar pattern between the Euro and GFS, in that the Euro favored snow; the GFS did not, but eventually the GFS came in line with the Euro? Suffice to say, I am hoping the Euro is correct for next week's storm. It will be fun to watch and track. Also, while I am welcoming the warmer weather to help clear the roads and make playing in the snow more enjoyable, I am hoping this warm up doesn't get out of hand and get too warm. So far it appears it should stay in check with highs in the 30's for several days. The closer to freezing, the better!
ReplyDeleteDave/Schnee Meister: thanks for the updates on models/tracking predictions. I may be quiet at times, but I'm always monitoring the news on this blog. Cheers for more snow!
ReplyDeleteWill we get 1-2" of snow tomorrow night plus a half inch during the day like the National Weather Service is predicting as of 'now'???? Can't wait to see. It sure felt like March today, which seemed odd to me.
ReplyDeleteAnd just as I was writing that, Mr Novak posted a graphic of ice v snow slicing through the metro later in the day through early evening. He says the 'potential is there for a messy day' and especially between '5-10 p.m.' so prayers up we just get some good old snow. Stay safe everyone if it gets slick out there.
ReplyDeleteNew thread up for next week’s system
ReplyDeletehttp://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2022/12/a-storm-to-kick-off-2023-but-will-it-be.html
Thanks!
Delete