NWS has the southern metro and much of southern Minnesota in the area for accumulating snow Thursday night into Friday.
Looking ahead, the long range forecast discussion talks of a system from Monday to Wednesday with a lot of uncertainty.
From NWS:
at this point it looks like
mainly snow to start later on Monday, with a transition to mixed
precipitation during the day on Tuesday from south to north. Tuesday
night as the column cools it looks like the forecast area will
transition back to snow and remain mainly snow on Wednesday. How much
snow could we potentially get? That will depend on the track of the
cyclone.
Here we go!!! On and off snow here and there leading up to the whopper next week. I know it sounds like a Burger King menu item, but I will be doing the Whopper Dance starting NOW!! Bring it!
ReplyDeleteReally need next week's system to continue shifting southward if we want an all snow scenario in southern MN. The NWS stated this morning the models overnight shifted the system slightly southward, but not far enough to keep southern MN out of the mixed precip. The NWS is talking about a large amount of moisture (one inch or more). We would really miss out on a ton of snow if it is a mix scenario. Dance PWL...Dance!!
ReplyDeleteEven the Weather Channel spent several minutes this morning talking about next week’s storm. They said it will affect nearly the entire country and somewhere in the northern planes could experience possibly three days of blizzard/near blizzard conditions. Hoping, too, it trends slight. Bring it!
ReplyDeleteGoing to be forecaster hell next week based on these temperatures at the 850mb range. Most of the column is below freezing with a somewhat shallow warm layer around the 850mb range. I could easily see heavier precipitation switching rain over to snow in the metro off and on throughout the prolonged storm. But we are still a decent way out so things will surely change.
ReplyDeleteNovak has been very quiet on here about next week's system. Perhaps it's just too early to address the system?
ReplyDeleteYou are right, Joe. Novak has been putting us 'on notice' on FB, but true, he hasn't drawn any maps or put out numbers, yet, probably because of both track and warmth. But it's going to be a doozie for somebody!! He even has a possibility of thunderstorms in the metro if my eyes were correct in making out the small print on the week ahead chart.
ReplyDeleteNWS says total liquid precip could be over an inch with this system, nearly matching the total moisture amount for an average month of December.
ReplyDeleteAccording to the LaCrosse NWS, model tracks for next week’s system are all over the place. I then read the Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion which seems to have settled on a cold rain (scenario for the metro (northern storm track). What makes them so confident?
ReplyDeleteI just read the Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion and at the end it mentioned after this coming week’s large storm (yes, cold rain for MSP?), a NW flow will develop so cold and dry. Booo
ReplyDelete@ Big Snow Fan...I hear you. I'm getting that all too familiar "I live 200 miles too far south" feeling. Northern MN and the Dakotas (aka the usual suspects) are looking primed for a big snow. A wind driven cold rain in October is one thing, but to have that in December is nothing short of depressing for snow fans. Fingers crossed the system goes farther south than currently expected.
ReplyDeleteYeah, this sucks to put it mildly. Winter Storm Watch is now up for Tuesday, but it's far, far away from this part of the state. Looking at my weather calendar, average temps, especially at night, should be cold for snow, but they are not. A one-inch December rain with a bit of snow/slush mixed in? It's going to be a sloppy week. Let's see how it goes, but not getting my hopes up.
ReplyDeleteDRY SLOTTING!! Remember these two words because It will be quite unfortunate to have a large storm nearby dumping copious amounts of snow but it won’t be here. There will be an initial wave of moisture that will be a mixed bag to rain then more mixed bag to snow. In between it will be a massive DRY SLOT with heavy snow falling not here in the metro. There will be cosmetic snowfall in its aftermath in the 1-3” range perhaps 4” in spots, far cry to the 1-2’ to the west and north.
ReplyDeleteStill time for things to change, but as others here have said, this doesn’t look like a snowstorm for the metro. I just hope the rain doesn’t wash away our snow for Christmas. I would rather have nothing but the dry slot, as opposed to rain…Grrrr
ReplyDeleteJust read this afternoon’s NWS forecast discussion. Not good at all for snow lovers in the Twin Cities and points south. Looks like the storm is going to track through southwest MN. So much for it taking a more southern track. It’s actually taking a more northern track! NWS says an extended period (?) of cold, dry weather to follow the storm. After having cold and snow the past few weeks, I have to wonder whether a White Christmas for southern MN is now in jeopardy? SMH
ReplyDeleteTonight’s 00z EURO model drops a new wrinkle regarding next week’s big storm….it lingers the snowfall into Friday with over 10” when all set and done with. Definitely something to keep an eye on with model trends tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteWe who love snow hope you are right, bigdaddy. NWS is still giving the Twin Cities just 1.5 inches of snow/sleet and the rest is rain with this morning's forecast. Thanks for the update, and hoping your updates continue to push more snow and less rain.
Delete@bigdaddy, do you have a link to share for the Euro? Thanks!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022121106&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
ReplyDeleteHope that helps/works
Thank you!
DeleteIf your a snow lover and you want a White Christmas then you need to root for PHASE 2(read below) to happen….otherwise the rain/mix and relatively warm(above freezing) temperatures will eat away most of snow you currently have depending where you live in the metro.
ReplyDeleteThursday through Saturday has seen some significant changes in the
models in the last 24 hours with the low now much slower in getting
out of the Great Lakes. The ECMWF and GFS in particular keep our
area entrenched in a moist cyclonic flow with light QPF Thursday
through Friday, with it possibly lingering into Saturday as well.
This is phase 2 of the precipitation with this system and this looks
to be a prolonged period of snow shower type activity. It will be
getting progressively colder during this period, with profiles
gradually becoming more supportive of higher snow ratios. A large
chunk of EPS/GEFS members show 3-6 inches of snow slowly piling up
during this period.
I still wouldn't completely count out on some accumulating snow on Tuesday-Wednesday for MSP. Dynamic cooling will play a role but the question is will it be enough to over come the warm air 4000-6000ft above us. NAM3k and HRRR will be critical to watch starting tomorrow night into Tuesday morning.
ReplyDeleteI am truly tired from the Whopper Dance so I have switched to the "Give us an appetizer in Phase 1 Dance" and then will move to the "Phase 2) Dance. Bring it!!!
ReplyDeleteI hear you. NWS had a fascinating little chart on their FB page of all the Christmas days since 1950 and how many had snow, etc. 'Twas interesting. I'd like to see a chart, too, of 'average temps' since then. According to my trusty weather calendar, the average high for Wed is 29 and the average low 16. Those temps would give us a ton of snow, but we stay in the 30's this time it appears. Don't wear yourself out, PWL. We need you for the entire winter season! :+)
DeleteNovak just wrote at around 10:40 a.m. today/Monday (on his FB site): "Keep in mind that the upcoming Winter Storm this week will feature mostly RAIN over southern MN/WI tomorrow. Then, we get dry-slotted on WED. So, no real opportunities for significant snow until THUR into FRI." I know there is mention of dry slot in one or more posts above, too. :+(
DeleteNWS has posted a Winter Weather Advisory for the TC metro, effective 12PM Tuesday to 12PM Wednesday…” Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 3 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.” I then just watched WCCO and Chris Shaffer said it will be nothing but rain for the metro the next two days “with maybe a wet snowflake mixed in here and there”. My gut tells me Shaffer is right, but the NWS must have a fairly objective reason for issuing the WWA?
ReplyDelete00Z models coming in snowier for the metro….
ReplyDeleteGFS over 10”
NAM over 7”
Sweeeeeeeeeeeet!!! What other details are people seeing in terms of the weather today and snow Thursday/Friday? Bring it!
ReplyDeleteWCCO at noon today predicted 5.3” of snow by Friday for MSP
ReplyDeleteIt appears the metro and areas south are going to struggle to get a white Christmas this year, while central and northern MN will have plenty of snow. Hmmm, sounds a lot like last winter. I am watching Kare 11 and they are saying maybe an inch or two for the metro by the time this system moves out on Friday. I never felt confident Phase 2 was going to bring much in the way of accumulating snow. Here's hoping we can squeeze out enough to cover the ground for Christmas. Over the past couple of hours the rain has been washing the snow away in my front yard (central metro) to the point where a lot of grass is appearing just below the thin layer of snow.
ReplyDeleteHang in there fellow snow lovers! WCCO is calling for 5.5 inches of snow through Friday morning. Kare has a reputation for being really conservative when it comes to temperatures and snow amounts. We will just have to wait and see what happens. Dance, PWL, dance!
ReplyDeleteI came back hoping the anonymous people would be gone but nope still here trolling. The previous comment has no backing to it as model runs are putting a good amount of snow into next week.
ReplyDeleteExcuse you, Ben!! I am no troll! The forecaster on Kare 11 expressly said 1-2 inches. Whether that turns out to be accurate is another story. Because I choose to not use a name on here does not mean I am a troll! I suggest you do some homework so you know what you're talking about in the future. Here, I will help you get started. Definition of Internet Trolling: An internet troll, or online bully, deliberately tries to offend, cause trouble or directly attack people by posting derogatory comments on social media (Facebook posts, blogs, YouTube video comments, etc.). So, no, Ben, I am not a troll!
DeleteIt helps if you use a name so people can follow the discussion. You can pick any name you would like just select Name/URL, only name field is needed.
DeleteI didn't take this particular Anonymous replies as a troll. There was too much substance in it to be a troll.
DeleteI am keeping an eye on the comments and did not take issue with anything posted. It also would appear the poster chose a name, Lynn, for their future replies. Hope the site can stay an enjoyable place for discussion.
DeleteNWS now has snow overnight tonight for metro and 3”-6” for the metro by Friday. I spent the day in Iowa and rain is finally ending.
ReplyDeleteThank you for your polite comment, Jason. I chose a name. I hope the weather service is right and we get several inches of snow later this week.
DeleteNWS last weather story caption:
Delete“The signal for accumulating snow has increased along with decreasing ice totals. A slushy Wednesday morning commute is possible tomorrow.”
I just LOVE this storm - there is a little bit of everything. While I would love all snow, this storm is fascinating to me - rain, sleet, freezing rain, snow, drizzle, wind, freezing drizzle, warm temps them plummeting to cold temps on the other side. It even has some "wrap around" snow that is actually starting to act more and more like a second system in terms of how we are watching it. It becomes closed off and stalling. All of this is truly amazing and so interesting to me. Bring it!!
ReplyDeleteI have been quiet about this storm, but it's been fabulous to follow the models. Looks like this storm will buck the trends of the last couple of years, north metro gets more snow than the south. Irregardless those of you wishing for major snows in the metro be aware for what you wish for. Those that get major snow cover could see high Temps in the - teens as we get to around Dec 20th or so, lows around - 30.
ReplyDeleteTell me why the metro isn’t under at least a winter storm watch at the moment? One could make an argument that we should be under a warning at this time. All 00Z models that have come in none of them are under 6”(warning threshold) at this time.
ReplyDeleteUKMET 7+
NAM 10+
HRRR 12
GFS 11+
CANADIAN 11+
waiting on EURO….
You got the watch, bigdaddy! Finally issued this morning. Any new totals you can push out for us here on the blog? Thanks.
DeleteI'm with PWL that it's been a 'lovable' storm week in some ways. It has given us never-ending 'all types' of precip. with lots more to come through Friday late. We get to experience March all the way through January in five days. Yesterday I was a bit worried because it seemed a dry slot was sitting right over me in St Louis Park, but now it's looking more like winter out there. Not sure, bigdaddy, about a WSW. I found a neat little PDF that of course I can't put on here, but it outlines various criteria for watches and warnings. "Complicated" to be sure. Enjoy the snow, fellow snow lovers, and be safe out there as it turns to ice and temps plummet later this week.
ReplyDeleteOh, here is a link from National Weather Service and one can click on different watches/warnings and see the criteria: https://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined
ReplyDeleteI was with PWL and WeatherGeek on enjoying the storm until I went out to shovel. It's dirty and heavy. Can't wait to get a fresh coating of snow!
ReplyDeleteWARING ISSUED FOR TWIN CITIES
ReplyDeleteTIME TO DANCE
Those with access to the models, what are they putting out for amounts at this point?
ReplyDeleteGood question @Big Snow Fan. I am curious what the models are showing also. Hennepin County is on the western edge of the winter storm watch. WCCO just showed a graphic predicting 4.3 inches for Minneapolis, which is lower than the 5.5 inches they showed last night. They also mentioned central and northern MN should get 7-8 additional inches in Phase 2. Starting to feel like the Twin Cities is being slowly pushed to the fringes for Phase 2?
ReplyDeleteAnonymous above at 9:08 a.m.: what part of the state are you in with the warning? I see a Winter Storm Watch for the metro, so you must be elsewhere. "Let it snoooooow!"
ReplyDeleteJust checked FB and you may be right, Schnee Meister. Novak put out a snow totals graphic at around 10 a.m. today, and it shows south metro 2-4" and north metro 4-7" and northeast/Duluth another 7-12" plus enhanced lake-effect snow possibilities up there. Here's hoping it shifts back 'our way.'
ReplyDeleteOkay, I'll be quiet after this, but NWS is only putting out 1-2 inches now in St Louis Park from this incoming system. That is sad for any snow lovers. I hope he rest of you get all the snow you hope/wish for.
ReplyDeleteI'm breaking the promise made a scant two hours ago. Now we have a winter storm WARNING including my area and back to 4-7 inches. This reminds me of a 'storm' when I was in grad school: the NWS cancelled all watches/warnings, and it snowed, and snowed, and snowed, and I kept walking around my campus muttering to myself, 'Yeah, this is just an inch of snow,' as inches upon inches fell from the sky. Tomorrow is going to be one very interesting day. If anyone has computer run totals to push out, "bring it." The dancing is paying off, PWL!
ReplyDeleteWeather Geek, we always welcome your posts, especially when they bring good news for snow lovers! I just happened to have checked for an updated forecast a few minutes ago and saw the metro upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning! Here's hoping we get a nice dumping tomorrow before the arctic opens up on us next week! Let it snow! Let it snow!
ReplyDeleteI'm excited about tomorrow/Friday's snow but I see some chatter about another storm early next week? Woohoo!
ReplyDeleteI will be sure to start a new thread for next week after Friday shakes out
DeleteUh oh….looking at the radar, and is that another dry slot forming in WI and moving towards the Metro/eastern MN?
ReplyDeleteHere’s to hoping that fills in! #teamGoSnow
regardless of the eventual totals, it is currently a very pretty snowy morning in Minneapolis.
ReplyDeleteI see the dry slot too, moving in that odd southwest direction. Hope it stays at bay or closes up.
Agreed. It is so beautiful out, especially the white-covered trees. Stay safe everyone.
Delete4.9 inches yesterday MSP/7 for the month; and 7.1 Chanhassen/11.6 for the month so far. Not bad. We are in the 'plus' column for precip, for once. The trees sure are beautiful again today, but I see the wind is picking up in anticipation of next week's cold and precip systems. This was an amazing multi-day precip event, wasn't it fellow snow lovers? Have a safe weekend.
ReplyDeleteI agree, Weather Geek…very beautiful this morning. Exciting weeklong system. Wish it had been all snow for the metro! We picked up a solid 6-7 inches in Maple Grove/Plymouth. Some of it compacted and melted yesterday due to the 34-35 degree temperatures. Glad we finally have gone below freezing for the first time in the last five days. It seemed like it was perpetuately around 33-35 degrees day and night. Everyone, please be safe on the roads and get ready for the incoming arctic invasion! Hopefully more snow next week?!?!
ReplyDeleteWithout any obvious storm on the horizon, I am going to likely put up the next thread tomorrow or Monday.
ReplyDeleteJust posted by Novak(12/17):
ReplyDeleteConcerns continue to grow for a Major Winter Storm on WED/THUR. Have a plan B if you are traveling in MN/WI later next week.
Looking at the telleconections I would agree. The ensemble mean of the ECMWF, GEM, and GFS are in good agreement on how this storm sets up, until early next week when in my opinion the GFS is to fast in breaking down the eastern ridge. I believe that the ECMWF and UKMET have a pretty good handle on this with the storm cutting up earlier. Will be fun to watch.
DeleteAnon at 9:14 was me
Delete