The Hunt for Snow

As we near December, and with temps closer to what one would expect for the season, the hunt for significant snow is on. When might that happen?

First snow of 23-24 season?

Hope everyone had a great spring and summer! 

Looks like the first flakes are in the forecast, so its time to fire up the blog again. The national weather service says we may see a flurry Saturday with other scattered chances as we fall into a cool pattern from the weekend to later next week.

Temper the expectations though as the NWS goes on to say: “bottom line, first snowfall for southern Minnesota
is looking likely, but little to no accumulation expected.”

Even if this is just a few flurries, it seemed like a good chance to let people check in after the many months away. Welcome back and hopefully we have a snowy winter ahead!

Snow After 80s?

 A shocking downturn in the summer-like warmth is coming. Will it bring any late, late-season snow?

Late Week Slop to Add to Snow Tally?

 In a winter that keeps giving, more white gold may fall from the sky late this week. Your thoughts?

Late-week storm to help MSP move up the snowfall ranks?

As one commenter aptly put it, the chase to land a new snowfall record at MSP is akin to a football team trailing by 10 late in the fourth quarter (and there are no XFL rules). The team would appear to need a touchdown vs. a few field goals. Might a late-week storm put the record more within reach — or possibly take the prize? We shall see....

Snow Record Chase Continuing Later This Week?

The bounty of the season may continue — in some abundance — later this week. Track it here.

Snow to the North

 There is a decent system setting up to the north that the NWS gives a 20% chance of impacting the metro. 

There are no watches yet anywhere near the metro but it seemed worth a thread.

Enjoy!

Snowstorm Debrief

The much-anticipated snowstorm is ending. With all the twists and turns, how do you think forecasters did? And what other thoughts do you have about the storm?

It’s a weird feeling to be a former Minnesotan/snow lover closely watching a storm take place in such a familiar place that’s 1,574 miles away (as the southwestern jetstream flies) from where I live in Albuquerque, New Mexico (where the storm created winds gusting to 63 mph, visibility down to one mile in dust and snow squalls that just make for a pretty picture).

Here are some random thoughts and observations:

• Except for actually shoveling snow and constantly dabbing at a runny nose, it’s amazing how much you can experience a snowstorm virtually — thanks to news stories, pictures from friends, traffic cameras, etc.
• As one commenter suggested, it seems to make more sense to see this storm as two separate storms given the amount of time between. If one views it that way, it seems that there was a middling storm (4”) followed by clean-up, followed by a legitimately heavy, but not blockbuster, snow.
• Taken literally, the forecasts seemed generally quite accurate — except for the “heavy at times wording.” From my review of MSP observations, there was never an official report of “heavy snow.” However, I sensed that the net impact didn’t quite measure up to the message that was communicated by the NWS.
• Reports from rural areas notwithstanding, the storm didn’t seem to be as paralyzing as one might expect for the total accumulation (again why it seems more appropriate to see this as two storms) nor truly historical.
• As one who lived through the Halloween blizzard, I was secretly hoping that this didn’t end up as a record setter. (I want to keep the glory.)
• Patience is always a virtue, but especially so when waiting to see if a snowstorm fully flowers.
• Model data should be consumed with a pound of Morton salt.

But all in all, it was a good show!

All Eyes on Next Week

Model consensus is amazingly high for large winter system that could strike midweek. Will it materialize as forecast?

Rain and Snow later this week

NWS forecasts a couple of systems moving through beginning Valentine’s day and bringing some mixture of snow and rain, with the chance for some accumulations.

Should be one to keep us guessing!

Increasing chances for snow Wednesday Evening to Thursday

Nothing like a Viking playoff loss and a healthy shot of rain to kick off January!

Hopefully we can turn around this bad luck with a snow system that is aiming for Southern MN but may creep up to toss a few inches on the metro. 

So will we get that northern shift or watch it pass below the metro?

Thread for a quiet period

Thanks to everyone who joined the discussion leading up to the last storm. It’s been a fun winter of overachieving systems and I have enjoyed reading your commentary.

It looks like nothing is on tap over the next week or so, but I wanted to have a new thread up for anyone to discuss any potential upcoming systems. 

I will start a new thread once we see a storm worth discussing!