Nothing like a Viking playoff loss and a healthy shot of rain to kick off January!
Hopefully we can turn around this bad luck with a snow system that is aiming for Southern MN but may creep up to toss a few inches on the metro.
So will we get that northern shift or watch it pass below the metro?
Latest Runs (Kuchera Ratio) Snow Total at MSP Airport through Friday 00z
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ECMWF 6.8 (12Z) 8.2 (00z),
GFS 2.8 (12z), 2.8 (00z)
GDPS 6.4 (12Z), 2.3 (00Z),
NAM 5.1 (12Z)
RDPS 6.1 (12Z)
Need more analysis about the midweek storm. Trending the right way. Bring it!!
ReplyDeleteNot good PWL, 00z models coming in(GFS/NAM specifically) gets metro very little to zero.
DeleteNOAA 'currently as of 4:22 a.m.' has a possible 3-5" for the metro Wednesday night/Th morning, and I see winter storm watches south and east of us, but 'who knows?' One can dance and pray. This rainstorm has been wretched for we who love snow. What a January of contrasts. Keep those models coming and thank you in advance.
ReplyDeleteLatest Runs (Kuchera Ratio) Snow Total at MSP Airport through Friday 00z
ReplyDeleteECMWF 5.7 06Z
GDPS 6.6 00Z
GFS 5.1 06Z
HRW FV3 4.3 12Z
NAM 4.1 12Z
NAM 3km 8.5 12Z
RDPS 6.3 00Z
This feels like a trend upwards….there’s another 36ish hours until it starts and several more model runs…. I hope the storm keeps scooting north!!
DeleteLatest (ALL 12Z) Runs (Kuchera Ratio) Snow Total at MSP Airport through Friday 00z
ReplyDeleteECMWF 5.7
GDPS 5.7
GFS 7.1
HRW FV3 4.3
NAM 4.1
NAM 3km 8.5
RDPS 4.2
HRRR 6.7
Model Blend 4
Totally random note for those who are interested in winter history and these rains. From Paul Douglas's column in the local paper today:It's still disconcerting to see heavy rain falling in mid January. "Dr. Mark Seeley confirms four times more rain and icing events for the Twin Cities and far southern Minnesota since 2000. The ongoing warming is showing up in odd ways. It still snows and we still complain about cold fronts, but it doesn't stay as bitterly cold as it did most recently in the 70s.
ReplyDeleteThe 30-year average of subzero nights for an entire winter at MSP is 20. So far this winter? 6 consecutive subzero nights before Christmas. Since then MSP has been at or above zero." Let.It.SNOOOOOOWWWWWWW.
1976 - GLOBAL COOLING
Delete1989: Rising Sea Levels will Obliterate Nations if Nothing Done by 2000
2000: Children Won’t Know What Snow Is
2002: Peak Oil in 2010
2008: Al Gore Predicts Ice-Free Arctic by 2013
So Mr Gore was off by 22 years per current Google searching and it seems sea levels are rising; I won't argue about it, but the climate has definitely changed in my humble opinion. Thanks for the info, Ben. On another note, NWS now has 3-6" of white stuff for the metro, so BRING it. Dance, please, PWL.
DeleteBlah blah blah... anytime out government says we can solve it just give us more money while we fly on our private planes... should probably br skeptical... and yes this storm seems to be moving more north.
DeleteAny chance we can have comments removed that are completely devoid of accurate science?
DeleteMostly being facetious, but this nonsense permeates the comments on EVERY SINGLE POST OR ARTICLE about weather in all forms of media. It brings down the quality of the conversation everywhere it happens, as well.
There's nothing to discuss or debate. It's just trolling.
Doing the “Move North” Dance!! Bring it!!!
ReplyDeleteMe too!
DeleteNice to wake up to a WWA and 3-6" of snow forecast for tonight/tomorrow. Oh, yeah.
DeleteWish the models had come north. Two inches of snow is nothing to write home about here in the northwest burbs. Good luck to our friends in the southern burbs and farther south. We will await the next system.
ReplyDeleteAnyone with computer model access wish to post the latest totals from the models?
ReplyDeleteNWS has new graphics out and have moved the WSW into Dakota and Washington counties. Metro forecast is now 4”-6” so slight bump up.
ReplyDeleteI thought the 12Z euro run showed less snowfall for metro not more. The 18Z NAM is showing 6” near the metro. HRRR had 5”. I’m no expert just reviewing free updates at windy.com
Uhh...what happened to the snow? Maybe only 1" here in 55126
ReplyDeleteTwo inches here in Maple Grove, as expected. Possibly we can eek out another inch before it's all over? Nothing to write home about.
ReplyDelete2-4 can be 2 inches. 3-5 can be 3 inches. Will be an accurate forecast. Just not the upper end that my dance was trying to accomplish. Either way, still snowing.
ReplyDeleteBring it!
I agree, PWL. There was a point during this past week when forecasters weren't calling for any snow in the Twin Cities. It will end up being an accurate forecast. It just isn't the Twin Cities' snowstorm. I will take 2-3 inches to freshen things up. Looking forward to the next storm that targets the metro. Too bad Monday's storm was such a dud with mostly cold rain. That would have been a nice dumping of snow for the metro.
ReplyDeleteI just shoveled 3-4” in eastern Anoka county and the radar the last hour has snow further north than forecasted. I am pleasantly surprised, but yeah it’s a quick snowstorm.
ReplyDeleteI do have a bit more snow now. I read the NWS "timing" map as I was going to bed last night and expected the heaviest snow to fall between 11pm and 3am this morning so I was surprised when I looked out the window this morning. Yes, weather changes and evolves and I'm happy this one still produced!
ReplyDeleteThis is why Arctic air sucks, one it’s way too cold and two it pretty much shuts off any snow. Besides a possible 1-2” this week when the Arctic air arrives then it becomes arctic “boring” weather for the foreseeable future. Someone said earlier the 15” event at the beginning of this month will carry the month for snowfall is very true.
ReplyDeleteI love snow storms but if the Arctic air brings some sun that lasts more than 35 minutes I'll be happy.
DeleteAccording to the NWS someone COULD end up with up to 5” in the CWA by Friday 1-2” and then 1-3”….we’ll see what happens. Then brutal COLD!
ReplyDeleteWill be boring for awhile
ReplyDeleteGet used to it.
As us winter fans keep looking for snow, here are the February temp/precip outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center, issued/updated today. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/
Thanks for the links, Schnee Meister.
DeleteFantasy land GFS forecast, Day 11 calls for a healthy 8+ snowstorm on the 18z. Will it continue or disappear on the next run.
ReplyDeleteIf the long range models are to be believed, February is going to be another month with above normal temperatures, and unlike January, well below normal snowfall. We were fortunate to get the snow in early January, otherwise it would have been even warmer than it was, and quite dry. Here's hoping the models are wrong!
ReplyDeleteDon’t look now but most models are advertising a nice big rainstorm with warmer air around Valentine’s Day. Enjoy your snow now, slop fest melting is coming.
ReplyDelete@Joe, the flip side is if January had been it’s usual cold self we likely would have not gotten even half the amount of snow we got, because the cold high pressure would have shoved the storm track too far south. As for February, based upon what I have read and heard so far, I share the concerns of others that February unfortunately might not be a kind month to winter/snow fans in the southern half of Minnesota.
ReplyDeleteA lot of rain showing up for next week.
ReplyDeleteGet your blue juice now!!
Speaking of next week it continues to look uneventful in terms of snow/winter returning. First system looks warm and rain, second more meaningful system misses to the southeast.
ReplyDelete@James, you should be patient about next week, a lot of scenarios are on the table, I get it that temperatures will be marginal but a lot of snow can fall at marginal temps not just rain. Next week looks active we just need to let it play out. And perhaps a new thread for it?
DeleteLooks like after today it's nothing but 40's for several days (and some rain?) as February kicks into a higher gear of wimp mode. Is this Louisville? I remember when La Nina used to mean cold snowy winters for Minnesota. With a couple of exceptions (e.g. ten cold days in December 2022, snow in early January 2023) the last three years worth of La Nina's have not been very impressive IMHO. Climate change alive and kicking here? Despite the snow in January temperatures were still several degrees above normal for the month. Fifteen days in January recorded high temperatures in the 30's. I can't imagine how balmy this "winter" would have been if we hadn't gotten all of that snow in early January. Five of nine days so far in February have been in the 30's or 40's. The snow is turning crusty (not good for skiing) and the ice rinks are forming puddles (not good for skating). Forecasters are now predicting El Nino will return next winter, and we all know what that means. Sorry, I just find it all very frustrating. Oh well, here's hoping we don't have a chilly/sloppy March and April.
DeleteDon't look now but the Euro is predicting a snowless February for the Twin Cities. Better hope the GFS is right for once. Does anyone know the record for the least amount of February snow in the TC? Didn't someone on here predict the early January snow would carry the month? They were right. I wouldn't be surprised if it carries the rest of the winter. La Nina's becoming as lame as El Nino's? I believe it's climate change and it's going to get worse.
DeleteLooking at the GFS 300 hours out, Rochester is in line to get over 75 inches! I needed a good laugh!
DeleteI want to be accurate. Technically the EURO only goes through February 20. It is predicting no snow for the TC through February 20.
ReplyDeleteI agree with DysonGuy. I have NEVER seen the amount of snow that the 12Z GFS is showing for southeast Minnesota through Wisconsin for the timeframe of Feb. 17-25! I know it is fantasyland, but it is something I only see for the mountains in Western USA. It is unreal with a top amount of 88 inches shown for one location just to the southeast of MN. I know it won't happen, but it made me wet my pants. I am just hoping that it is signaling a noticeable pattern change and we just get something resembling a significant storm close to home or right over our heads. Unreal! Bring it!
ReplyDeleteWe might need a new thread here, the 16th and 17th shows 29 inches for southern metro
ReplyDeleteOne weather model, so I would say slow your roll plus it’s the GFS. But I agree a new thread is warranted.
DeleteActually it's 2 models cuz the Canadian is showing it to just south more, but we shall see
DeleteStill fantasy land, but this is 3 runs in a row for the GFS and now this time is shows 50" close to home - like right over us! And it is for next Thursday and Friday which is only a week away which makes something significant more plausible. I am going to live in this fantasyland for a while! Bring it!!!
ReplyDeleteWe all know the EURO is King why are we even bothering with the GFS. Shows not much of anything for the metro to get excited about snow, first round mostly rain, then second system a miss to the south.Yes the blue juice will come in handy.
ReplyDeleteDear Anonymous: I believe you, but I also see 'crazy' snow totals on the 'time and date' outlook that I often visit: 22" this coming Friday/ Saturday and then 21" President's Day and the day after. I searched their website to find out 'where' they get these predictions from, and here is a copy/paste: "Where Does the Weather Data Come From?
ReplyDeleteCustomWeather provides the weather data on timeanddate.com. They use weather stations at airports, stations run by the World Meteorological Association (WMO), and MADIS weather stations which are typically a community effort." I cannot fathom those snow totals, and I enjoy throwing them out 'today' to see what comes to fruition. And yes, I agree we should have a new thread starting for the week ahead. Let it snow.
GFS coming down to reality. Over the last 3 runs the GFS has made a distinct move south towards King Euro. Not a good sign for TC snow fans. Time will tell.
ReplyDelete