Thanks to everyone who joined the discussion leading up to the last storm. It’s been a fun winter of overachieving systems and I have enjoyed reading your commentary.
It looks like nothing is on tap over the next week or so, but I wanted to have a new thread up for anyone to discuss any potential upcoming systems.
I will start a new thread once we see a storm worth discussing!
Thanks for the new thread. Lo and behold: will get get to add another two inches of snow to our totals come the morning of January 11? It's not a big storm, but every inch counts. Dance, PWL.
ReplyDeleteWhat two inches do you speak of?where?
DeleteI have it in NOAA screen shots for my city. They were pushing it out in forecasts late yesterday afternoon. Notice I asked 'will we'..... I never said 'we will get'...... sometimes there are forecasts for snow and nothing comes of it. This was one of those occasions. The ice was ugly, though. Reminded me of 1981 or '82 when a slight icing brought Metro Transit to a halt, then, too. A bus was right outside my apartment, stuck on a slight incline, unable to move forward on its route. People were falling all over the parking lot as they tried to go to their cars. But yes, the two inches in last night's screen shot from NOAA did not come to be. Too warm, ice, continued bad air quality.... it's not feeling or acting like January.
DeleteThe last several model runs have reflected a good-sized snowstorm (6+ inches) for January 19. The Euro (and GDPS) reflects the storm hitting central/southern Iowa. The GFS (and CMCE ensembles) reflects the storm hitting central/southern MN, with the CMCE ensembles leaning towards the Twin Cities and points south. Let the battle of the models begin!
ReplyDeleteYes! Thank you for the info, Schnee Meister.Novak hints at it today with a post on FB: "We've got a relatively Quiet & Mild weekend on the way. Then, all eyes turn towards next week as a much more active weather pattern takes hold. Next Thursday already looks more than interesting. Here is your extended outlook."
DeleteThank you, Schnee Meister! We’ve gotten so used to non-stop action this season I’m ready for more. I know not everyone is but bring it! Keep us posted
Delete12z ECMWF pushes storm to south central and south eastern Wisconsin. If behaves like last storm where euro was more accurate then I think MSP will miss the brunt.
ReplyDeleteMost of next week is beign, can’t jump on models that early like discussed above and comments like from Novak about being more than interesting. Monday looks too warm with mostly rain with perhaps a period of snow at the end, Wed/Thurs is a miss and following Sundayish/Mon is a miss to the south as well. That 15” earlier this month will carry the month to be above average but not much too speak of in the “new” department.
DeleteYeah, it's sad to wake up this morning and see 'a quarter to half inch of rain' predicted for Monday. Oh, that it could be snow. Too warm. Too weird. Thanks for the updates on the models and your analysis, folks.
DeleteI agree the models from the other day held promise for snow fans in southern Minnesota, but they now no longer hold that promise. However, models a week or so out are not always incorrect. The storm just before Christmas is a great example. More than a week out the models nailed that storm.
DeleteI wouldn’t count out some activity later this coming week. Some models show some decent snowfall. The Euro shows snowfall for us as well. Maybe not the heart of the storm that is mostly to the south right now, but when there is some moisture shields starting to show more north, then that makes me smile.
ReplyDeleteBring it!
I wouldn’t sleep on Monday night….we definitely transition to snow after sunset question remains how much intensity in that snowfall, a few models are spitting out 2-4” over the metro….I know it’s not much but it’s not zero either!
ReplyDeleteExcerpt from NWS discussion this morning. I agree…and how very disappointing!
ReplyDelete“The main feature of interest though early this morning is the strong upper trough digging south in California. This is the feature that will move out in the central Plains tonight, with a surface low
spinning up in southeast Colorado this afternoon, that by the end of the day on Monday, will be a little north of the Quad Cities. This isn`t far from the mean track of a "Colorado Low" that often can bring the Twin Cities better than 6" of snow, but this isn`t your typical January Colorado low. The difference is the complete lack of cold air with this system (see highs today in the mid/upper 30s). So instead of a decent snowstorm, this looks to be a predominately rain event, with the exception of the far northwest edge of the precip shield across western/central MN. As a retired long time forecaster here would have said of this storm, it’ a "waste of a good winter storm."
I keep zoom.earth pinned in my browser, so I look at the US satellite loop every morning. What a shock to see such a beautiful looking storm in prime position for a good snowfall in Minnesota. I wondered why I'd seen and heard nothing about it. Now I know why. Sad and weird.
DeleteIt’s mid-January in Minnesota. We have a classic storm track for a snowstorm. It’s going to be a cold rain instead. How pathetic!
ReplyDeleteWhy did Mr Novak write this today? "Active weather pattern will unfold this coming week with mostly RAIN tomorrow followed by a potential Winter Storm later WED into early THUR. Here is your extended outlook." What is happening mid/late week, weather gurus? What do you see in your models? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteEuro and Nam have shifted north and are now signaling a snowstorm for the Twin Cities for Wednesday. I hope the trend continues. In the meantime hopefully this horrible January rain doesn’t decimate our snowpack today by too much.
ReplyDeleteSorry, I am the anonymous that just posted about the Euro and Nam shifting north.
ReplyDeleteGFS looks to have jogged north another 75 miles since yesterday’s runs….trending in the right direction for those of us in the metro looking for another storm to track!
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