Wow! Currently the 06z EURO has 10+ for the metro area for Friday evening/night! This is getting very interesting. Bring it all! Let’s break a damn record!
I just looked at all the available computer model's from Dustball's other post by following: Click on ECMWF at the top, choose the zone, then Winter at the left. You'll want Total Snow Accumulation. https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ (Thank you!) The model's are all over the board. Yes, EURO has 10" currently - wow!
Thank you for the new thread Bill/Dave. Here we go. Let's post our current stats for this thread. MSP currently sits at 81.2 inches of snow. We currently sit in 8th place for 'snowiest winter ever' in MSP. Here are the top ten totals/carry over from the other blogs: 1) 1983-84: 98.6 inches; 2) 1981-82: 95 inches; 3) 1950-51: 88.9; 4) 2010-11: 86.6; 5) 1916-17: 84.9; 6) 1991-92: 84.1; 7) 1961-62: 81.3; 8) 1951-52: 79; 9)1966-67: 78.4; 10) 2017-18: 78.3. Let's see what our 'April Fools' storm, as I am dubbing it for myself, brings us. I don't know if we can 'break the damn record,' Bigdaddy, but let's go for it.
We need 3.8 inches to take over sole ownership of 5th place! A top 5 finish isn't too shabby, especially given the obstacles we have had to hurdle to get to where we are (multiple rain events, warm air lingering so long that it turned a 6-8 inches snow forecast into .1 inch reality, etc.). I too am still hoping to break into the number one spot. Time will tell whether we can get there....
Oh MY! This is exciting. I was wishing for a watch. I hope that this time we are not disappointed like so many times before this winter (ok, WeatherGeek, quit being a pessimist!)...... BRING IT. Let it S.N.O.W.
Some crazy happenings on the 00Z model runs late tonight…increasing numbers GFS has a whopping 15” now Canadian up to 8” now NAM…only 3” metro but get this 29” in Rochester! I’m sure it will all change tomorrow but crazy eye candy tonight!!
Gfs is showing rain at hr 48 (with 0” of snowfall accumulation) and mixed precipitation at hr 51 with a miraculous 9” on the ground 3 hours later. The gfs needs to be put out to pasture. It has been awful all season. The models are obviously struggling with this system. Hopefully we get a bit more clarity by this time tomorrow.
Any ideas on why the GFS has been so 'awful all season'? I know zip about models/what they use/how they play with data, but it would be interesting to know your thoughts. What is that model using/doing that makes it so 'off' this season? Thanks.
I love all of this! The variability and the model runs. Love it all!
I also love the NWS forecast discussion from this morning. That net deserves a raise! The time that went into the level of detail they provide is awesome!!
This is a complex system and I can’t wait to see it unfold. Where else can you get this much weather variability in just 48 hours? Not many places.
Latest NAM3k showing 7.8 for the heart of the metro with a sharp cut off to the west.
NAM has 5.8 for the core with a sharp gradient right over the metro from southwest to northeast. (More snow south east)
HRW fv3 has 2-8”in the metro. HRW wrf arw has 2-3”
Gfs is drunk again.
It’s going to be incredibly difficult to forecast an amount for the metro. It really might come down to a nowcast. Some spots might see quite a bit and some spots could see next to nothing. Should be interesting to watch it all unfold.
Novak has 'massaged' his map a bit; the north metro is no longer in the 'high/alter your travel plans' but the core metro southward and east 'is'.... and that is good cuz I want a boatload of snow to fall right on the MSP measuring station at the airport (or wherever it officially is) that tallies snow totals!!!!!! It's not going to help if the north metro gets the bullseye and the official measuring site gets zilch. BRING IT. LET IT SNOWWWWWWW. Going for the GOLD! Prayers it doesn't shift further south/east.
I am very concerned, that unless the development of this storms deepened quickly OR it slows down, the biggest snowfall might be to our east. Some models are trending this way even more than they were before.
Doing the "Stop the Eastward Development Trend" Dance!
Novak going full in on the Euro solution which based on years past is probably right. Pulling for the GFS solution but I damn well know the Euro wins...
Already happening @PWL. Novak has the heaviest in Wisconsin and the warning snows south of MSP. Only 3-5 in metro, starting the downward trend to a not much/nothing burger?
This is true, but I'll take 3-5". I do care about the record (love your name here!!) and while of course we cannot eclipse the top spot due to the large amounts of rain this winter, top five is nice. But yeah, the storm has definitely changed its path since early this morning.
I'm starting to get that all too familiar uneasy feeling again...just like last time when we officially ended up with .1" of snow, despite the forecast of 6+". Most of South Dakota is now under a blizzard warning for up to a foot of snow and 55 mph winds. The "feeling" is starting to say Wisconsin will also get a good dumping. That leaves Minnesota, including the metro, in the middle wondering what all the hoopla is about. Hope I'm wrong. It's been really frustrating trying to get that .2" of snow to take over sole possession of 7th place on the metro snowiest winters list.
I bet we stay in a Watch because the NWS don’t know what to do or which model to follow. They should just go with an advisory we all know the metro usually misses the jackpot(not always but usually).
Gfs sticking to its guns for MSP. 16” in about 9 hours, 14” of which fall in about 6 hours. 6 straight hours of 2”+ per/hr snowfall rates. Highly unlikely, but it certainly would be something to experience if it were to verify.
00z model runs are coming out…we are now less then 24hrs from the forecasted start time of the watch/snowfall….pick your model of choice and let’s go(grab your popcorn!)
First up the 00Z HRRR… 12-18” straight thru the metro from Anoka county to the north to Scott/Dakota counties to the south. LETS BREAK A DAMN RECORD!
And right on que and Warning is hoisted, figured they go that route once the HRRR came out but I’m still a little surprised their totals in the headline is still 4-6”. Keep grabbing that popcorn more models coming out shortly! LETS BREAK A DAMN RECORD!!
More models: This one is a little perplexing perhaps someone can please explain to me the difference between the NAM and the NAM 3km? -NAM: <1” -NAM 3KM: 6-10” north to south thru the metro.
Nam - almost nothing half and inch. Nam 3k 5-7” Fv3 5-8” Wrf 3-14”
NWS split the middle with their totals. Throw out the outliers and split the middle- As good of a guess as any. Could easily end up with more or less though. I’d personally give slight odds to the lower side- closer to the euro.
Euro always wins in these type of situations and ive seen it play out too many times.. 2-5 inches for the core metro. Redwing to Rochester will be ground zero on NE into Wisconsin where a solid 8-12 inches will fall.
Well either the GFS is going to be colossally wrong or spot on because for several model runs now it hasn’t wavered from its snowfall output. 00Z GFS 15.5”(12-18” metro wide)
What a crazy 'winter.' Radar looks to be calming down; the 3 a.m. light/thunder show was interesting. NOAA is still putting down some snow tonight in the metro...... but ufdah! Thanks for all the updates, snow lovers. I can't wait to see what I wake up to 24 hours from now.
Okay. I have to add that Mr. Novak's final comment on his FB post/map 8 hours ago has me smiling: "THUR 8pm: All right, here we go! Expect a ton of surprises tomorrow evening into early SAT. Some people will be upset, some will be elated as rain changes to heavy SNOW & we deal with razor sharp snow gradients across southern MN/WI...Queue the bust comments now."
And one more for comic relief for we who love snow. Someone on FB's NWS site posted a photo/screen grab of the current Rochester storm warning. And I kid you not because I took a screen shot: "The higher amounts of 6 - 89 inches are favored north of Highway 10 in north-central Wisconsin."
Some areas of Brooklyn Park/Maple Grove got an inch of rain 'last night/this morning.' Where have our March snowstorms gone? I'm looking forward to the snow potentials discussions on here later today. Thanks!
Other models are agreeing with the higher snow totals.
NAM 12Z - 7-18 inches (north metro through south metro) NAM3km 12Z - 10-18 inches through heart of metro RAP 14Z (most recent - just came out) - 12-13 inches right through heart of metro
GFS 12Z is loading now. EURO 12Z is come out later.
Don’t be surprised if the Blizzard Warning is expanded into the metro later. That’s some serious snow coming in a short period of time, visibilities will be pretty bad!
No lie! Oh gosh oh gosh, for those who are on FB, go look at Mr. Novak's page. Within the past half hour he 'massaged' the totals. He has most of the metro in an 8-12" band now. Last night he was mentioning the 'bust' word and now it is all changing. Dance, PWL.
Wow oh Wow! All short term models are zeroing in on the metro for a large snowfall. Going with 8-13, and that could very well be on the conservative side!
Wow, talk about a clash of seasons here in the heart of the USA! Check out the NWS national map! Tornado Watch up to the MN border. Blizzard Warnings in western MN. https://www.weather.gov/
12Z EURO: 8-16” from south to north metro! A lot of people are going to be caught off guard tonight, because the NWS has been too conservative with their snowfall and messaging in my opinion as well as a lot of local Mets…Novak is at least following the trend with his changes. Going to be a crazy night! BRING THE DAMN RECORD!
Exactly. Reminds me of a storm when I was in college. In that instance, watches and warnings were cancelled. And it was POURING snow. I kept muttering, 'Yeah, we don't even have an advisory,' and it kept snowing and snowing and snowing. I couldn't even get on NOAA's local site for hours today. Novak RULES. This monster storm is definitely interesting, plus like Joe says, a total 'clash of seasons' in IA, MN and WI. Bring it and hoping everyone stays safe. Thanks again everyone for the computer updates. Much appreciated.
One person posted on Novak's site that they are worried people will try to drive in these conditions outside of the metro tonight.... dangerous indeed. Novak pleaded, 'Don't do it.'
Within 4 counties in northern Iowa and southern MN, you go from a tornado watch, to winter storm warning to blizzard warning. Amazing. Weather Channel met this morning said some in Iowa will experience a tornado today and wake up to snow cover tomorrow morning.
As the evening progresses, colder air will wrap in and precipitation will transition to widespread heavy snow. As the cyclone rapidly becomes negatively tilted, intense bands of snow will form across eastern/southern MN and WI later this evening. HREF probs for 1 inch/hr rates are near 100 percent and are even greater than 50 percent for 2+ inches/hr. Thus, there could well be 2 to 3 inch per hour rates at times and snow will pile up very quickly. The shield of snow will be slow moving as the system wraps up to the southeast and several hours of intense snow are likely. Because of these factors, total snowfall amounts have lower confidence than usual, but chances for exceeding 8 inches are increasing markedly. The ceiling could be high as the new snow probabilities illustrate (10-12+ inches), but this is dependent on intense snow rates for at least a few hours. Time is the limiting factor as the snow shield will sink southeast overnight and end before dawn. An intense, but relatively short system will lead to severe impacts tonight.
*make the most intense stuff fall over MSP International **BRING THE DAMN RECORD
Radiosonde is being released at MPX, it will take about 45 minutes for data to be available to the public, will be interesting to see how how deep and how low the warm tounge is.
It’s pretty obvious on radar the core metro including MSP will miss out on the heaviest snows. Pretty decent(heavy)snow for Scott and Dakota counties into the Red Wing area will be the big winners and if I’m not mistaken several models zoned in that precise location.
5.3” at 1am at MSP with several more inches since then and still snowing, I would easily bet by the next update, 7am, we will easily be in the top 3 for seasonal snowfall! LETS BREAK A DAMN RECORD! BRING THE DARN RECORD!
41 car accidents at 4:20 a.m. in the metro; people outside chopping whatever froze last night; one grandkid/great grands with no power in the north metro; what an epic April Fool's and way to slide out of one wild winter season. We won't break that #1 spot, but we will definitely climb up some notches. I hope it poured snow wherever the official tally is kept. What a monster storm.
So yes, Bigdaddy, we are 86.5" at MSP. Also: we had a RECORD 1.41 inches of liquid; oh, if it were all snow. Can you imagine? 86.6 is fourth place and 88.9 is third place. If it snowed much after midnight, let's see where we end up. Prayers up to all the households with no power and prayers for all the people having difficulties on the roads. Cheers, bloggers and fellow snow lovers.
Ugh...what happened to the 50 degrees they'd been predicting all week for tomorrow...and that I've been looking forward to all week... There go my outdoor plans... MM ;-(
Yay. In my mind I will always remember that we had SO much rain this winter in what, four separate events by now, that we would have easily broken the all time snow mark if not for rain, rain, rain. Top three is awesome. Thanks for all the updates/data. What a wild couple of days, snow lovers.
WeatherGeek, during each of those four rain events temperatures at the surface were cold enough for snow, but there was an unfortunate warm tongue aloft over us. Very frustrating! Despite the obstacles, we have made it to third place all-time!
I was just cruising around here in 55126 and there are a lot of big branches and even whole trees down in many of the neighborhoods/across the streets. Then, where the main roads were plowed, there are 3’-5’ snow bank berms where residents can’t get out of their neighborhoods from their side streets. I’d say we got 10”-12” inches here - quite impressive
What a beautiful April Saturday! LOL 10.5 inches of fresh whiteness here on the Plymouth/Maple Grove border. I am excited we took over third place all-time! Just think about that; it’s pretty awesome considering the records go back to the 1880’s! Now let’s see what Mom Nature has in store for mid next week! As always, the storm track will be key.
I love the snow but am fed up with shoveling or snow blowing it. So having some fun I a long side with my AI friend came up with a possible constitutional amendment to cover such cases. :-)
Article XXVIII: Seasonal Snow Removal Exemption
Section 1: Definitions and Scope
1.1. For the purposes of this Article, "snow" shall be defined as frozen precipitation composed of ice crystals that fall from the atmosphere and accumulate on the ground, and may include any other forms of frozen precipitation.
1.2. This Article shall apply to any natural or legal person, hereinafter referred to as "the Exempted Party," who has duly enacted this Article into their personal or corporate constitution, bylaws, or other relevant legal documents.
1.3. The Exempted Party shall be deemed to have the right to refuse snow removal responsibilities within the specified date range, as defined in Section 2.
Section 2: Snow Removal Exemption
2.1. From April 1 to October 31 of each calendar year, the Exempted Party shall not be legally or morally obligated to remove or otherwise manage the accumulation of snow on their property, public sidewalks adjacent to their property, or any other area where they might be held responsible for snow removal.
2.2. The Exempted Party shall be granted full immunity from any fines, penalties, or other legal consequences that may arise from their refusal to remove snow, as stipulated in this Article, within the specified date range.
2.3. This exemption shall not be revoked or altered due to any unforeseen circumstances or natural disasters, including but not limited to unusually heavy snowfall or extended periods of freezing temperatures.
Section 3: Public Safety and Responsibility
3.1. While the Exempted Party shall not be required to remove snow as per Section 2 during the specified date range, they are encouraged to consider the safety and wellbeing of their fellow citizens and to make reasonable efforts to ensure that their refusal to remove snow does not pose a significant risk to public safety
As I sit here in Charlotte, beyond envious of all of you in the Twin Cities, etc., we are enduring crazy winds from the same storm system, but it's 77 degrees. Charlotte just finished its first snow-less Winter in recorded history; not even a Trace. That actually makes a lot of sense to me, considering the storm track all winter long placed us firmly in the warm sector of the storm systems. And...we are currently having the warmest start to the year on record. My garden loves it, but I haven't seen any snow at all in over a year. :-( (The Christmas 2022 blizzard and arctic outbreak kept me from traveling back to MN for the holidays).
Congratulations, snow lovers...and good luck the rest of the way. 9 inches in April? Easy peasy!
I wish it were so easy. It's raining again this morning, and a lot of rain is predicted Tuesday and Wednesday, sadly. Rain, rain, rain. I wonder how much rain we have had this winter that could have converted to snow. I am pretty sure it's over two inches, literally!!! Thanks for checking in with us here in MN. A first snow-less winter must be something else; at least you can tell lots of stories about MN!! :+)
Okay, gurus: what do your models show for Tuesday/Wednesday? I feel like it is our 'last chance' to try and get some SNOW around here. Are most of the models just saying rain, rain and more rain with the sleet and a minimal amount of snow, or are they spitting out better chances for snow? Thank you in advance!!
Not Paul Douglas here (damn Google on iOS). This looks so similar to Friday it is spooky. The severe weather threat is scary for the mid section of the country. Watch Ryan Hall on YouTube during severe weather, it is fantastic. We are far enough out that this thing could move farther south (cooling) but that gets harder every day as Spring is fighting Winter. Will be a close call but seriously more concerned about the severe weather again. Friday was nuts for tornados as close as WI and IA.
Thanks for that update. NOAA isn't predicting much snow accumulation; the 'other Paul Douglas' said on his strib blog today that if the temp had been another five or so degrees colder when most of that rain fell, we would have had massive amounts of snow. Thanks again. Guess we have to wait and see as always. I have friends who still do not have their power back from yesterday's nighttime thrashing.
Here is my question to anyone but more specifically to WeatherGeek. I think this winter is the “wettest“ one on record. This would be combining any types of moisture that has falling from the sky. Can someone confirm that?
WeatherGeek, you have said several times about rain, rain, rain, and if that would’ve been snow….. Here’s my curiosity: we get rain every winter. I’m guessing we may have gotten more rain this winter than some other winters due to the incredible amount of moisture that we have had this winter. Do you have access to statistics about how much rain we’ve gotten over the past winters over the past 10 years? I bet proportionately, we are not that off. We always get some rain storms.
Thank you, Dustball, for the link. I'm going to go read it right now. I understand the question, PWL. Think about this winter. We have had some big rain events, even two that have now broken records. I can't remember exact days, but we would get over .75 inches of rain which to me was bizarre considering where I am/what time of year it is/was. One was this past storm; like the real Paul Douglas said on his blog today, a few degrees would have given us two feet of snow v. 8-12 inches. Another time we got something like .8 inches of rain; this week we get another half inch or so. And there was the storm where the airport got about an inch of snow amidst lots of rain. So that is why I keep saying it. If these big rain events this winter had been snow, we would have easily pushed over the #1 spot on snowiest winters ever, and you'd be dancing so hard you would drop from exhaustion!!!! :+) So I kind of feel like 'we was robbed' as the saying goes. We got robbed out of what could have been the most awesome snowiest winter ever. I know some winters can be 'warm' but I also know the climate is much warmer than in my childhood. There are people who won't believe me right now as they try to navigate the slop on the streets, but winter is different. Top three is great; but I know we could have been higher. I'm going to go read the link Dustball kindly provided right now. Thanks for the question, PWL. Thanks again for the link, Dustball.
OH DUSTBALL, YES, THERE IT IS: PWL: "Interestingly, in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota, we had three significant rainfall events, totaling nearly 1.50 inches of liquid rain from mid January through late February. If it had been just a few degrees colder, we’d have seen at least 15 to 20 inches of additional snowfall, clinching the number one spot." AND THIS DOES NOT EVEN INCLUDE THE RECORD RAINFALL THE AIRPORT HAD FRIDAY!!!!! Thank you again for this awesome article. Plymouth Weather Lover: this explains my rain, rain, rain laments this winter.
If you go here- https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=mpx Select "Accumulation graphs" for the Product, a date range for 11/1/2022 to 4/1/2023, and Precipitation as the variable- it'll give you a pretty good idea of precip totals for this winter and how it stacks up to the 1880-1881 all time record.
Unfortunately this week is not looking promising for the TC metro to get another big snow. It’s looking like a NW MN/ND blizzard. Is this our last chance for the season?
And Sven S wrote that article that Dustball gave us a link for on March 1. How much pure rain did we have just in the month of March? A decent amount. The whole article is great.
Fellow Snow / Winter fans: I think this is the 'end of winter as we know it' for this season. It's been great having Bill/Dave keep the blog going, and I hope to see y'all here next season. Nothing will probably compare to this winter for a long time to come. It's been great. Sincerely, WeatherGeek.
WeatherGeek! Are you signing off?? What in the world. We have a darn record to break and we have all of April and all of May. And snow happens in both of those months. What’s going on?
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. PWL thanks for giving me a good laugh. I told you I'm a pessimist at heart. In my mind, we already broke that record with the huge rain events we had. "Back in the day" that would have been snow, taking us well over 100+ inches. But okay, then, I will stand by and see what happens.
From Mr Novak on FB: "MON 3pm: Sorry SNOW & WINTER lovers. It looks like this next monster storm will dump its SNOW & ICE in the Dakotas & northern MN tomorrow into WED. Meanwhile, a shot of rain & a DRY slot is headed for the rest of us." HUGE snow totals in the Dakotas.
I was keeping an eye on the storm to see if we needed a new thread, but alas.
5 or so years back we got a huge storm in mid-April, so perhaps we can still see something still. But if not, I do want to thank everyone for keeping this community going for another winter! And yes WeatherGeek this was indeed one we should be very happy with.
Well, Dave, if there is a chance later in April maybe a new thread to monitor any new storms. Current thread is getting a little long. Have not published much this year but really enjoyed the comments regarding this most enjoyable winter. Will keep monitoring in case anything pops up. Thanks to you,Bill ant all the commenters for the efforts to track and monitor this year.
You took the words out of my mouth, Bigdaddy. I’m sitting here enjoying the snowflakes and likely the last real day of winter. It’s April, so I’m ready for some sunny and 72°, but fall and winter are always in my heart!
Wow! Epic. I don't know how the people survived being buried, literally, in houses ... how do they 'breathe' and just.... survive? How do they not 'suffocate' trying to stay warm? Thanks for the link. I need to read up more on how they actually DID survive. I'd like some of that snow, but not all of it. Thanks again, Joe. See you next year here on minnesotaforecaster. You are a great source for finding excellent links.
Thanks, Weather Geek! I always enjoy your comments and interest in the winter weather. I want to thank Mom Nature for the great and long snow season. It was almost epic! I don’t want to sound ungrateful, but how about a little less rain, some slightly cooler temps and more snow next time, Mom! Then we can have a truly epic winter!! I also want to thank the entire MinnesotaForecaster family (Bill et al) for another great season of insights and enthusiasm for Minnesota’s winter weather. Enjoy the off-season and I look forward to the band reconvening in October! Let it Snow!! Let it Snow!!
This weather is AWESOME, but why is everyone "signing off" for the year?!?! We are this close to the record with most of April and all of May in front of us. We know that both of these months can produce snow and we only need 9 inches to break the ALL-TIME RECORD!!!!
I don't expect that we are going to get a huge blizzard between now and the end of the snow season, but a few snow events would push us to a point where we could tell our grandkids that we lived through the snowiest winter EVER!!
You might be thinking, "C'mon, PWL. Just give it up." But why would I, or anyone, do that with the amount of time we have left for possible snow AND how close we are.
I am not signing off. I will enjoy this incredible week of weather AND hope to still break the record while we are still in the possible snow season.
I miss the snow too, WeatherGeek. Don't get me wrong, I love a nice sunny 70 degree day with a gentle warm breeze, but personally I have had enough of these temps in the 80's. Much too hot for my blood. I moved to Minnesota from down south because I have never been a fan of hot and/or humid weather. Hmmm...I see Nome, Alaska is still in the throes of winter with highs in the single digits and lows well below zero. LOL
Not sure why most other outlets are silent about the snow potential on Sunday. The dynamics & storm track are nearly perfect for some heavy bursts of wet snow/slush across portions of southern MN/WI. Just because it has been so warm does NOT mean that we can't get snow. The snow ratio would be 5:1 to 8:1 = white concrete.
Well damn Novak you have peeked my interest! Well the NWS hasn’t really talked about it much either Thanks for commenting over here. Yeah for sure the very warm air and the fact not all models are on board and depending on snowfall times and intensity we could have the white rain scenarios play out again where it snows but not much accumulates. But we have a damn record to break so we need every inch! BRING THE DAMN RECORD!
Great to see you over here, Mr. Novak. NWS keeps talking about 'less than a half inch' and 'little or no snow accumulation.' I see on FB you've adjusted your map/posted a video. I will go study it; thanks again for visiting over here. Remember, Bigdaddy: in my mind, we DID break the record/are Number 1 this winter because I fantasize all those inches of rain we got should have/could have been snow. Cheers for an interesting weather weekend.
I have been quietly watching the last several runs of the models. Between the Euro, GFS and NAM their snow predictions for Sunday range from 3-8 inches. Euro (3"), GFS (6") and NAM (8"). Hmmm, possibly something real? The models have handled the last two systems quite accurately while at the same time the outlets, including the NWS, were either silent about snow or mentioning little to no accumulation. This could be interesting...
Thanks for the update; Novak put out a map with some high totals in western WI and southern MN..... not much here in the metro, but I'll take 'anything'..... keep the updates coming. Thank you.
And some of you had signed off for the year. So glad to see all of you back on this thread. I think a new thread is in order as a pretty unique opportunity to get close to or break the record is possibly right in front of us!
Wow! Currently the 06z EURO has 10+ for the metro area for Friday evening/night! This is getting very interesting.
ReplyDeleteBring it all!
Let’s break a damn record!
I just looked at all the available computer model's from Dustball's other post by following: Click on ECMWF at the top, choose the zone, then Winter at the left. You'll want Total Snow Accumulation. https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ (Thank you!) The model's are all over the board. Yes, EURO has 10" currently - wow!
ReplyDeleteThank you for the new thread Bill/Dave. Here we go. Let's post our current stats for this thread. MSP currently sits at 81.2 inches of snow. We currently sit in 8th place for 'snowiest winter ever' in MSP. Here are the top ten totals/carry over from the other blogs: 1) 1983-84: 98.6 inches; 2) 1981-82: 95 inches; 3) 1950-51: 88.9; 4) 2010-11: 86.6; 5) 1916-17: 84.9; 6) 1991-92: 84.1; 7) 1961-62: 81.3; 8) 1951-52: 79; 9)1966-67: 78.4; 10) 2017-18: 78.3. Let's see what our 'April Fools' storm, as I am dubbing it for myself, brings us. I don't know if we can 'break the damn record,' Bigdaddy, but let's go for it.
ReplyDeleteWe need 3.8 inches to take over sole ownership of 5th place! A top 5 finish isn't too shabby, especially given the obstacles we have had to hurdle to get to where we are (multiple rain events, warm air lingering so long that it turned a 6-8 inches snow forecast into .1 inch reality, etc.). I too am still hoping to break into the number one spot. Time will tell whether we can get there....
ReplyDeleteOpe, Winter Storm Watch just posted...PWL, you better be breaking out all of your best moves :)
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteOh MY! This is exciting. I was wishing for a watch. I hope that this time we are not disappointed like so many times before this winter (ok, WeatherGeek, quit being a pessimist!)...... BRING IT. Let it S.N.O.W.
DeleteBeat me to it @Joe!
ReplyDeleteKeep on freakin dancing PWL!
Let’s break a damn record!!
Some crazy happenings on the 00Z model runs late tonight…increasing numbers
ReplyDeleteGFS has a whopping 15” now
Canadian up to 8” now
NAM…only 3” metro but get this 29” in Rochester!
I’m sure it will all change tomorrow but crazy eye candy tonight!!
Gfs is showing rain at hr 48 (with 0” of snowfall accumulation) and mixed precipitation at hr 51 with a miraculous 9” on the ground 3 hours later. The gfs needs to be put out to pasture. It has been awful all season. The models are obviously struggling with this system. Hopefully we get a bit more clarity by this time tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteAny ideas on why the GFS has been so 'awful all season'? I know zip about models/what they use/how they play with data, but it would be interesting to know your thoughts. What is that model using/doing that makes it so 'off' this season? Thanks.
DeleteThe Euro is going crazy too. Here are the latest GFS and Euro runs: 06z GFS 18 inches for the metro.
ReplyDelete00z Euro 17 inches for southeast MN (Rochester).
I love all of this! The variability and the model runs. Love it all!
ReplyDeleteI also love the NWS forecast discussion from this morning. That net deserves a raise! The time that went into the level of detail they provide is awesome!!
This is a complex system and I can’t wait to see it unfold. Where else can you get this much weather variability in just 48 hours? Not many places.
BRING IT!!!
NAM 06z spitting out 15” for the metro.
ReplyDeleteBig change for this model as it had consistently been showing SE MN with the jackpot snow!
The 12z HRRR is showing 14 inches for the metro. Can ALL of these models be wrong?? None of the local mets, including the NWS, are biting.
ReplyDeleteYuhas predicted 6 to 10 inches overnight on Friday on this morning’s forecast. He might be biting.
ReplyDeleteBring it!!
16” on the 12z HRRR for metro area
ReplyDeleteWOW!
Latest NAM3k showing 7.8 for the heart of the metro with a sharp cut off to the west.
ReplyDeleteNAM has 5.8 for the core with a sharp gradient right over the metro from southwest to northeast. (More snow south east)
HRW fv3 has 2-8”in the metro.
HRW wrf arw has 2-3”
Gfs is drunk again.
It’s going to be incredibly difficult to forecast an amount for the metro. It really might come down to a nowcast. Some spots might see quite a bit and some spots could see next to nothing. Should be interesting to watch it all unfold.
Novak has 'massaged' his map a bit; the north metro is no longer in the 'high/alter your travel plans' but the core metro southward and east 'is'.... and that is good cuz I want a boatload of snow to fall right on the MSP measuring station at the airport (or wherever it officially is) that tallies snow totals!!!!!! It's not going to help if the north metro gets the bullseye and the official measuring site gets zilch. BRING IT. LET IT SNOWWWWWWW. Going for the GOLD! Prayers it doesn't shift further south/east.
ReplyDeleteI am very concerned, that unless the development of this storms deepened quickly OR it slows down, the biggest snowfall might be to our east. Some models are trending this way even more than they were before.
ReplyDeleteDoing the "Stop the Eastward Development Trend" Dance!
Bring it!!
Novak going full in on the Euro solution which based on years past is probably right. Pulling for the GFS solution but I damn well know the Euro wins...
ReplyDelete18z HRRR = 14 inches for the metro
ReplyDeleteAlready happening @PWL. Novak has the heaviest in Wisconsin and the warning snows south of MSP. Only 3-5 in metro, starting the downward trend to a not much/nothing burger?
ReplyDeleteThis is true, but I'll take 3-5". I do care about the record (love your name here!!) and while of course we cannot eclipse the top spot due to the large amounts of rain this winter, top five is nice. But yeah, the storm has definitely changed its path since early this morning.
DeleteTwo distinct camps have emerged: 1) Nam/Euro; 2) HRRR/GFS. Unfortunately for us metro snow fans the Euro has the best track record.
ReplyDeleteI'm starting to get that all too familiar uneasy feeling again...just like last time when we officially ended up with .1" of snow, despite the forecast of 6+". Most of South Dakota is now under a blizzard warning for up to a foot of snow and 55 mph winds. The "feeling" is starting to say Wisconsin will also get a good dumping. That leaves Minnesota, including the metro, in the middle wondering what all the hoopla is about. Hope I'm wrong. It's been really frustrating trying to get that .2" of snow to take over sole possession of 7th place on the metro snowiest winters list.
ReplyDeleteExactly. Bummer.
DeleteI bet we stay in a Watch because the NWS don’t know what to do or which model to follow. They should just go with an advisory we all know the metro usually misses the jackpot(not always but usually).
ReplyDeleteGfs sticking to its guns for MSP.
ReplyDelete16” in about 9 hours, 14” of which fall in about 6 hours. 6 straight hours of 2”+ per/hr snowfall rates. Highly unlikely, but it certainly would be something to experience if it were to verify.
00z model runs are coming out…we are now less then 24hrs from the forecasted start time of the watch/snowfall….pick your model of choice and let’s go(grab your popcorn!)
ReplyDeleteFirst up the 00Z HRRR…
12-18” straight thru the metro from Anoka county to the north to Scott/Dakota counties to the south.
LETS BREAK A DAMN RECORD!
And right on que and Warning is hoisted, figured they go that route once the HRRR came out but I’m still a little surprised their totals in the headline is still 4-6”. Keep grabbing that popcorn more models coming out shortly!
ReplyDeleteLETS BREAK A DAMN RECORD!!
More models: This one is a little perplexing perhaps someone can please explain to me the difference between the NAM and the NAM 3km?
ReplyDelete-NAM: <1”
-NAM 3KM: 6-10” north to south thru the metro.
Nam - almost nothing half and inch.
ReplyDeleteNam 3k 5-7”
Fv3 5-8”
Wrf 3-14”
NWS split the middle with their totals. Throw out the outliers and split the middle- As good of a guess as any. Could easily end up with more or less though. I’d personally give slight odds to the lower side- closer to the euro.
Euro always wins in these type of situations and ive seen it play out too many times.. 2-5 inches for the core metro. Redwing to Rochester will be ground zero on NE into Wisconsin where a solid 8-12 inches will fall.
ReplyDeleteWell either the GFS is going to be colossally wrong or spot on because for several model runs now it hasn’t wavered from its snowfall output.
ReplyDelete00Z GFS 15.5”(12-18” metro wide)
LETS BREAK A DAMN RECORD!!
Right now…thunder, lightning, moderate rain in Plymouth/Maple Grove…and it’s 33 degrees!
ReplyDeleteI'm in disbelief the Euro 0Z mostly folded to the GFS.. genuinely shocked.
ReplyDeleteWhat a crazy 'winter.' Radar looks to be calming down; the 3 a.m. light/thunder show was interesting. NOAA is still putting down some snow tonight in the metro...... but ufdah! Thanks for all the updates, snow lovers. I can't wait to see what I wake up to 24 hours from now.
ReplyDeleteOkay. I have to add that Mr. Novak's final comment on his FB post/map 8 hours ago has me smiling: "THUR 8pm: All right, here we go! Expect a ton of surprises tomorrow evening into early SAT. Some people will be upset, some will be elated as rain changes to heavy SNOW & we deal with razor sharp snow gradients across southern MN/WI...Queue the bust comments now."
ReplyDeleteAnd one more for comic relief for we who love snow. Someone on FB's NWS site posted a photo/screen grab of the current Rochester storm warning. And I kid you not because I took a screen shot: "The higher amounts of 6 - 89 inches are favored north of Highway 10 in north-central Wisconsin."
ReplyDeleteSome areas of Brooklyn Park/Maple Grove got an inch of rain 'last night/this morning.' Where have our March snowstorms gone? I'm looking forward to the snow potentials discussions on here later today. Thanks!
ReplyDelete12Z Day of snow models:
ReplyDelete-HRRR(still going big) 12-16” west metro straight on thru the core/MSP.
Hope you still have your popcorn!
LETS BREAK A DAMN RECORD!
Yes!
DeleteOther models are agreeing with the higher snow totals.
ReplyDeleteNAM 12Z - 7-18 inches (north metro through south metro)
NAM3km 12Z - 10-18 inches through heart of metro
RAP 14Z (most recent - just came out) - 12-13 inches right through heart of metro
GFS 12Z is loading now.
EURO 12Z is come out later.
This is getting VERY INTERESTING!
BRING IT!!!
Yes indeed, interesting!
Delete@PWL for today let’s combine our lines….
BRING THE DAMN RECORD!!
12z GFS is showing 13 inches for the metro core.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the update/thanks everyone for the updates.
DeleteYes! The wait is tough. Bring it, puleeeeeeez Old Man Winter!!
ReplyDeleteDon’t be surprised if the Blizzard Warning is expanded into the metro later.
ReplyDeleteThat’s some serious snow coming in a short period of time, visibilities will be pretty bad!
No lie! Oh gosh oh gosh, for those who are on FB, go look at Mr. Novak's page. Within the past half hour he 'massaged' the totals. He has most of the metro in an 8-12" band now. Last night he was mentioning the 'bust' word and now it is all changing. Dance, PWL.
DeleteWow oh Wow! All short term models are zeroing in on the metro for a large snowfall. Going with 8-13, and that could very well be on the conservative side!
ReplyDeleteWow, talk about a clash of seasons here in the heart of the USA! Check out the NWS national map! Tornado Watch up to the MN border. Blizzard Warnings in western MN. https://www.weather.gov/
ReplyDelete12Z EURO: 8-16” from south to north metro!
ReplyDeleteA lot of people are going to be caught off guard tonight, because the NWS has been too conservative with their snowfall and messaging in my opinion as well as a lot of local Mets…Novak is at least following the trend with his changes. Going to be a crazy night!
BRING THE DAMN RECORD!
Exactly. Reminds me of a storm when I was in college. In that instance, watches and warnings were cancelled. And it was POURING snow. I kept muttering, 'Yeah, we don't even have an advisory,' and it kept snowing and snowing and snowing. I couldn't even get on NOAA's local site for hours today. Novak RULES. This monster storm is definitely interesting, plus like Joe says, a total 'clash of seasons' in IA, MN and WI. Bring it and hoping everyone stays safe. Thanks again everyone for the computer updates. Much appreciated.
DeleteNovak put up a video on FB for those on FB.
ReplyDeleteHrrr cuts back on the totals this run. Puts us in the 8-11” range.
ReplyDeleteBlizzard warning expanded to the twin cities!
ReplyDeleteOne person posted on Novak's site that they are worried people will try to drive in these conditions outside of the metro tonight.... dangerous indeed. Novak pleaded, 'Don't do it.'
DeleteBLIZZARD WARNING!
ReplyDeleteAs I alluded to a couple of hours ago!
BRING THE DAMN RECORD!
BLIZZARD WARNING!!!
ReplyDeleteHERE WE GO!!!
BRING THE DARN RECORD!!
Nam 3k cuts the core metro totals in half 6-8”
ReplyDeleteAw, don't "rain" on our snow parade.
DeleteWithin 4 counties in northern Iowa and southern MN, you go from a tornado watch, to winter storm warning to blizzard warning. Amazing. Weather Channel met this morning said some in Iowa will experience a tornado today and wake up to snow cover tomorrow morning.
ReplyDeleteHail, lightning, thunder, torrential downpours. Waiting for snow in St Louis Park!!
ReplyDeleteShort and sweet and to the point:
ReplyDeleteAs the evening progresses, colder air will wrap in and precipitation
will transition to widespread heavy snow. As the cyclone rapidly
becomes negatively tilted, intense bands of snow will form across
eastern/southern MN and WI later this evening. HREF probs for 1
inch/hr rates are near 100 percent and are even greater than 50
percent for 2+ inches/hr. Thus, there could well be 2 to 3 inch per
hour rates at times and snow will pile up very quickly. The shield
of snow will be slow moving as the system wraps up to the southeast
and several hours of intense snow are likely. Because of these
factors, total snowfall amounts have lower confidence than usual,
but chances for exceeding 8 inches are increasing markedly. The
ceiling could be high as the new snow probabilities illustrate
(10-12+ inches), but this is dependent on intense snow rates for at
least a few hours. Time is the limiting factor as the snow shield
will sink southeast overnight and end before dawn. An intense, but
relatively short system will lead to severe impacts tonight.
*make the most intense stuff fall over MSP International
**BRING THE DAMN RECORD
Thanks for the update, Bigdaddy, and I agree re: where we want the snow to fall so it gets measured properly in all its glory!
ReplyDeleteTemperatures starting to drop….down to 33° in GV and sleet mixing in currently
ReplyDeleteRadiosonde is being released at MPX, it will take about 45 minutes for data to be available to the public, will be interesting to see how how deep and how low the warm tounge is.
ReplyDeleteMy guess is not very long starting to sleet like crazy here in Woodbury. Can't imagine a switch over to snow will be take too much longer.
DeleteThis is amazing! Rain, sleet, hail, thunder, lightning, and accumulating snow all at once! This is weather heaven.
ReplyDeleteBRING THE DARN RECORD!!
Steady fat flakes have been falling in Plymouth since about 7:25 PM. Lots of thunder, lightning and hail earlier, followed by steady sleet.
ReplyDeleteBuckle up!! HERE IT COMES!!!
ReplyDeleteBRING THE DARN RECORD!!!!
Huge snowflakes coming down in Woodbury atm, ground is almost completely covered already.
ReplyDeleteBRING THE DAMN(DARN) RECORD!!!
ReplyDeleteThree inches in Plymouth so far, but how much at the MSP official measurement site?
ReplyDeleteIt’s pretty obvious on radar the core metro including MSP will miss out on the heaviest snows.
ReplyDeletePretty decent(heavy)snow for Scott and Dakota counties into the Red Wing area will be the big winners and if I’m not mistaken several models zoned in that precise location.
Right now it’s like a donut around the metro. But it looks like it might fill in. Let’s do this!
ReplyDelete5.3” at 1am at MSP with several more inches since then and still snowing, I would easily bet by the next update, 7am, we will easily be in the top 3 for seasonal snowfall!
ReplyDeleteLETS BREAK A DAMN RECORD!
BRING THE DARN RECORD!
41 car accidents at 4:20 a.m. in the metro; people outside chopping whatever froze last night; one grandkid/great grands with no power in the north metro; what an epic April Fool's and way to slide out of one wild winter season. We won't break that #1 spot, but we will definitely climb up some notches. I hope it poured snow wherever the official tally is kept. What a monster storm.
ReplyDeleteSo yes, Bigdaddy, we are 86.5" at MSP. Also: we had a RECORD 1.41 inches of liquid; oh, if it were all snow. Can you imagine? 86.6 is fourth place and 88.9 is third place. If it snowed much after midnight, let's see where we end up. Prayers up to all the households with no power and prayers for all the people having difficulties on the roads. Cheers, bloggers and fellow snow lovers.
ReplyDeleteUgh...what happened to the 50 degrees they'd been predicting all week for tomorrow...and that I've been looking forward to all week... There go my outdoor plans... MM ;-(
ReplyDeleteJust heard on WCCO that we are now in the top 5 for snowiest winter.
ReplyDeleteVia Twitter just now, NWS says the final total at MSP is 8.5 inches.
ReplyDelete8.5” storm total at MSP…. not too shabby, that clearly moves us up to 3rd overall with 89.7”.
Delete3rd!!!!
Yay. In my mind I will always remember that we had SO much rain this winter in what, four separate events by now, that we would have easily broken the all time snow mark if not for rain, rain, rain. Top three is awesome. Thanks for all the updates/data. What a wild couple of days, snow lovers.
DeleteWeatherGeek, during each of those four rain events temperatures at the surface were cold enough for snow, but there was an unfortunate warm tongue aloft over us. Very frustrating! Despite the obstacles, we have made it to third place all-time!
DeleteI was just cruising around here in 55126 and there are a lot of big branches and even whole trees down in many of the neighborhoods/across the streets. Then, where the main roads were plowed, there are 3’-5’ snow bank berms where residents can’t get out of their neighborhoods from their side streets. I’d say we got 10”-12” inches here - quite impressive
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteWhat a beautiful April Saturday! LOL 10.5 inches of fresh whiteness here on the Plymouth/Maple Grove border. I am excited we took over third place all-time! Just think about that; it’s pretty awesome considering the records go back to the 1880’s! Now let’s see what Mom Nature has in store for mid next week! As always, the storm track will be key.
ReplyDeleteI love the snow but am fed up with shoveling or snow blowing it. So having some fun I a long side with my AI friend came up with a possible constitutional amendment to cover such cases. :-)
ReplyDeleteArticle XXVIII: Seasonal Snow Removal Exemption
Section 1: Definitions and Scope
1.1. For the purposes of this Article, "snow" shall be defined as frozen precipitation composed of ice crystals that fall from the atmosphere and accumulate on the ground, and may include any other forms of frozen precipitation.
1.2. This Article shall apply to any natural or legal person, hereinafter referred to as "the Exempted Party," who has duly enacted this Article into their personal or corporate constitution, bylaws, or other relevant legal documents.
1.3. The Exempted Party shall be deemed to have the right to refuse snow removal responsibilities within the specified date range, as defined in Section 2.
Section 2: Snow Removal Exemption
2.1. From April 1 to October 31 of each calendar year, the Exempted Party shall not be legally or morally obligated to remove or otherwise manage the accumulation of snow on their property, public sidewalks adjacent to their property, or any other area where they might be held responsible for snow removal.
2.2. The Exempted Party shall be granted full immunity from any fines, penalties, or other legal consequences that may arise from their refusal to remove snow, as stipulated in this Article, within the specified date range.
2.3. This exemption shall not be revoked or altered due to any unforeseen circumstances or natural disasters, including but not limited to unusually heavy snowfall or extended periods of freezing temperatures.
Section 3: Public Safety and Responsibility
3.1. While the Exempted Party shall not be required to remove snow as per Section 2 during the specified date range, they are encouraged to consider the safety and wellbeing of their fellow citizens and to make reasonable efforts to ensure that their refusal to remove snow does not pose a significant risk to public safety
This is a hoot! Thanks for sharing it.
DeleteLol @DysonGuy!!
ReplyDeleteNow, let’s break that darn record!! 9 inches and we will have it outright!
Let’s GOOOO!!!
Bring it!!!
As I sit here in Charlotte, beyond envious of all of you in the Twin Cities, etc., we are enduring crazy winds from the same storm system, but it's 77 degrees. Charlotte just finished its first snow-less Winter in recorded history; not even a Trace. That actually makes a lot of sense to me, considering the storm track all winter long placed us firmly in the warm sector of the storm systems. And...we are currently having the warmest start to the year on record. My garden loves it, but I haven't seen any snow at all in over a year. :-( (The Christmas 2022 blizzard and arctic outbreak kept me from traveling back to MN for the holidays).
ReplyDeleteCongratulations, snow lovers...and good luck the rest of the way. 9 inches in April? Easy peasy!
I wish it were so easy. It's raining again this morning, and a lot of rain is predicted Tuesday and Wednesday, sadly. Rain, rain, rain. I wonder how much rain we have had this winter that could have converted to snow. I am pretty sure it's over two inches, literally!!! Thanks for checking in with us here in MN. A first snow-less winter must be something else; at least you can tell lots of stories about MN!! :+)
DeleteOkay, gurus: what do your models show for Tuesday/Wednesday? I feel like it is our 'last chance' to try and get some SNOW around here. Are most of the models just saying rain, rain and more rain with the sleet and a minimal amount of snow, or are they spitting out better chances for snow? Thank you in advance!!
ReplyDeleteNot Paul Douglas here (damn Google on iOS). This looks so similar to Friday it is spooky. The severe weather threat is scary for the mid section of the country. Watch Ryan Hall on YouTube during severe weather, it is fantastic. We are far enough out that this thing could move farther south (cooling) but that gets harder every day as Spring is fighting Winter. Will be a close call but seriously more concerned about the severe weather again. Friday was nuts for tornados as close as WI and IA.
ReplyDeleteThanks for that update. NOAA isn't predicting much snow accumulation; the 'other Paul Douglas' said on his strib blog today that if the temp had been another five or so degrees colder when most of that rain fell, we would have had massive amounts of snow. Thanks again. Guess we have to wait and see as always. I have friends who still do not have their power back from yesterday's nighttime thrashing.
DeleteHere is my question to anyone but more specifically to WeatherGeek. I think this winter is the “wettest“ one on record. This would be combining any types of moisture that has falling from the sky. Can someone confirm that?
ReplyDeleteWeatherGeek, you have said several times about rain, rain, rain, and if that would’ve been snow….. Here’s my curiosity: we get rain every winter. I’m guessing we may have gotten more rain this winter than some other winters due to the incredible amount of moisture that we have had this winter. Do you have access to statistics about how much rain we’ve gotten over the past winters over the past 10 years? I bet proportionately, we are not that off. We always get some rain storms.
Bring it!
https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-weather/minnesota-winter-2022-23-report-card-wettest-on-record-and-mild
DeleteThank you, Dustball, for the link. I'm going to go read it right now. I understand the question, PWL. Think about this winter. We have had some big rain events, even two that have now broken records. I can't remember exact days, but we would get over .75 inches of rain which to me was bizarre considering where I am/what time of year it is/was. One was this past storm; like the real Paul Douglas said on his blog today, a few degrees would have given us two feet of snow v. 8-12 inches. Another time we got something like .8 inches of rain; this week we get another half inch or so. And there was the storm where the airport got about an inch of snow amidst lots of rain. So that is why I keep saying it. If these big rain events this winter had been snow, we would have easily pushed over the #1 spot on snowiest winters ever, and you'd be dancing so hard you would drop from exhaustion!!!! :+) So I kind of feel like 'we was robbed' as the saying goes. We got robbed out of what could have been the most awesome snowiest winter ever. I know some winters can be 'warm' but I also know the climate is much warmer than in my childhood. There are people who won't believe me right now as they try to navigate the slop on the streets, but winter is different. Top three is great; but I know we could have been higher. I'm going to go read the link Dustball kindly provided right now. Thanks for the question, PWL. Thanks again for the link, Dustball.
DeleteOH DUSTBALL, YES, THERE IT IS: PWL: "Interestingly, in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota, we had three significant rainfall events, totaling nearly 1.50 inches of liquid rain from mid January through late February. If it had been just a few degrees colder, we’d have seen at least 15 to 20 inches of additional snowfall, clinching the number one spot." AND THIS DOES NOT EVEN INCLUDE THE RECORD RAINFALL THE AIRPORT HAD FRIDAY!!!!! Thank you again for this awesome article. Plymouth Weather Lover: this explains my rain, rain, rain laments this winter.
DeleteIf you go here- https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=mpx Select "Accumulation graphs" for the Product, a date range for 11/1/2022 to 4/1/2023, and Precipitation as the variable- it'll give you a pretty good idea of precip totals for this winter and how it stacks up to the 1880-1881 all time record.
DeleteUnfortunately this week is not looking promising for the TC metro to get another big snow. It’s looking like a NW MN/ND blizzard. Is this our last chance for the season?
ReplyDeleteI think it is, Joe. I'm pretty sure you are right. But hey, Old Man Winter, prove me wrong. I.Love.Snow.
DeleteAnd Sven S wrote that article that Dustball gave us a link for on March 1. How much pure rain did we have just in the month of March? A decent amount. The whole article is great.
ReplyDeleteFellow Snow / Winter fans: I think this is the 'end of winter as we know it' for this season. It's been great having Bill/Dave keep the blog going, and I hope to see y'all here next season. Nothing will probably compare to this winter for a long time to come. It's been great. Sincerely, WeatherGeek.
ReplyDeleteWeatherGeek! Are you signing off?? What in the world. We have a darn record to break and we have all of April and all of May. And snow happens in both of those months. What’s going on?
ReplyDeleteHa ha ha ha ha ha ha. PWL thanks for giving me a good laugh. I told you I'm a pessimist at heart. In my mind, we already broke that record with the huge rain events we had. "Back in the day" that would have been snow, taking us well over 100+ inches. But okay, then, I will stand by and see what happens.
DeleteFrom Mr Novak on FB: "MON 3pm: Sorry SNOW & WINTER lovers. It looks like this next monster storm will dump its SNOW & ICE in the Dakotas & northern MN tomorrow into WED. Meanwhile, a shot of rain & a DRY slot is headed for the rest of us." HUGE snow totals in the Dakotas.
ReplyDeleteI was keeping an eye on the storm to see if we needed a new thread, but alas.
ReplyDelete5 or so years back we got a huge storm in mid-April, so perhaps we can still see something still. But if not, I do want to thank everyone for keeping this community going for another winter! And yes WeatherGeek this was indeed one we should be very happy with.
Well, Dave, if there is a chance later in April maybe a new thread to monitor any new storms. Current thread is getting a little long. Have not published much this year but really enjoyed the comments regarding this most enjoyable winter. Will keep monitoring in case anything pops up.
DeleteThanks to you,Bill ant all the commenters for the efforts to track and monitor this year.
Sitting here watching the flurries fly by with the high wind gusts.......... it's beautiful, really...............
ReplyDeleteYes beautiful and most likely the last flakes of this winter season! What a wild ride it was!
DeleteYou took the words out of my mouth, Bigdaddy. I’m sitting here enjoying the snowflakes and likely the last real day of winter. It’s April, so I’m ready for some sunny and 72°, but fall and winter are always in my heart!
DeleteWhy are we all losing hope? I love the warm weather coming as well, but the record is still in reach.
ReplyDeleteIf no one else has hope, I will monitor the models and bring you all back on the hope train when I see something.
C‘mom now. Here we go. I am here for you.
Bring it!!!
Fellow snow lovers, do you want to see some awesome amounts of snow? Check this out:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/32-mind-boggling-pictures-of-what-over-700-inches-of-snow-looks-like-in-california/ar-AA19vVDc?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=fde9c096c12148b1b517cf46562fa99c&ei=66
Wow! Epic. I don't know how the people survived being buried, literally, in houses ... how do they 'breathe' and just.... survive? How do they not 'suffocate' trying to stay warm? Thanks for the link. I need to read up more on how they actually DID survive. I'd like some of that snow, but not all of it. Thanks again, Joe. See you next year here on minnesotaforecaster. You are a great source for finding excellent links.
DeleteThanks, Weather Geek! I always enjoy your comments and interest in the winter weather. I want to thank Mom Nature for the great and long snow season. It was almost epic! I don’t want to sound ungrateful, but how about a little less rain, some slightly cooler temps and more snow next time, Mom! Then we can have a truly epic winter!! I also want to thank the entire MinnesotaForecaster family (Bill et al) for another great season of insights and enthusiasm for Minnesota’s winter weather. Enjoy the off-season and I look forward to the band reconvening in October! Let it Snow!! Let it Snow!!
ReplyDeleteThis weather is AWESOME, but why is everyone "signing off" for the year?!?! We are this close to the record with most of April and all of May in front of us. We know that both of these months can produce snow and we only need 9 inches to break the ALL-TIME RECORD!!!!
ReplyDeleteI don't expect that we are going to get a huge blizzard between now and the end of the snow season, but a few snow events would push us to a point where we could tell our grandkids that we lived through the snowiest winter EVER!!
You might be thinking, "C'mon, PWL. Just give it up." But why would I, or anyone, do that with the amount of time we have left for possible snow AND how close we are.
I am not signing off. I will enjoy this incredible week of weather AND hope to still break the record while we are still in the possible snow season.
C'mon, friends. Let's do this.
Bring it!!!
I just have to say: 87/new record hottest since this date 1931 when the normal high should be 55/minimum 36..... I miss the snow already.
ReplyDeleteWe may be getting some on Sunday.
DeleteMore white rain will arrive very late Saturday into Sunday. Possibly enough to make it into the 90” club.
DeleteI miss the snow too, WeatherGeek. Don't get me wrong, I love a nice sunny 70 degree day with a gentle warm breeze, but personally I have had enough of these temps in the 80's. Much too hot for my blood. I moved to Minnesota from down south because I have never been a fan of hot and/or humid weather. Hmmm...I see Nome, Alaska is still in the throes of winter with highs in the single digits and lows well below zero. LOL
ReplyDeleteNot sure why most other outlets are silent about the snow potential on Sunday. The dynamics & storm track are nearly perfect for some heavy bursts of wet snow/slush across portions of southern MN/WI. Just because it has been so warm does NOT mean that we can't get snow. The snow ratio would be 5:1 to 8:1 = white concrete.
ReplyDeleteWell damn Novak you have peeked my interest! Well the NWS hasn’t really talked about it much either Thanks for commenting over here. Yeah for sure the very warm air and the fact not all models are on board and depending on snowfall times and intensity we could have the white rain scenarios play out again where it snows but not much accumulates. But we have a damn record to break so we need every inch!
DeleteBRING THE DAMN RECORD!
*perhaps a new thread
Great to see you over here, Mr. Novak. NWS keeps talking about 'less than a half inch' and 'little or no snow accumulation.' I see on FB you've adjusted your map/posted a video. I will go study it; thanks again for visiting over here. Remember, Bigdaddy: in my mind, we DID break the record/are Number 1 this winter because I fantasize all those inches of rain we got should have/could have been snow. Cheers for an interesting weather weekend.
DeleteI have been quietly watching the last several runs of the models. Between the Euro, GFS and NAM their snow predictions for Sunday range from 3-8 inches. Euro (3"), GFS (6") and NAM (8"). Hmmm, possibly something real? The models have handled the last two systems quite accurately while at the same time the outlets, including the NWS, were either silent about snow or mentioning little to no accumulation. This could be interesting...
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update; Novak put out a map with some high totals in western WI and southern MN..... not much here in the metro, but I'll take 'anything'..... keep the updates coming. Thank you.
DeleteAnd some of you had signed off for the year. So glad to see all of you back on this thread. I think a new thread is in order as a pretty unique opportunity to get close to or break the record is possibly right in front of us!
ReplyDeleteBRING THE DARN RECORD!!!
I’m back too. Ok, I admit I didn’t really see this coming. Let’s do this thing!! SNOW!!
ReplyDeleteNew thread for ya kids! (Bill)
ReplyDeleteThanks!
Delete