As one commenter aptly put it, the chase to land a new snowfall record at MSP is akin to a football team trailing by 10 late in the fourth quarter (and there are no XFL rules). The team would appear to need a touchdown vs. a few field goals. Might a late-week storm put the record more within reach — or possibly take the prize? We shall see....
BRING IT!!!
ReplyDeleteNot looking good for those record breakers, very warm air wrapped in with a lot of front side rain to a little back side field goal or less. Though it’s a almost perfect track south of the Cities but just too warm!
ReplyDeleteSo we crawled to 80.3 inches at MSP. We are getting ROBBED of snow this winter with another quarter to half inch of RAIN starting the storm later this week per this morning's NOAA outlook. That will be like 2 inches of rain in three events this 'winter' that could have converted into snow and ...... the dreams we snow lovers have had this winter. We could have easily been the snowiest winter ever. I say let it snow, but it's hard when it rains, rains, and rains... white rain as anonymous points out. Let's see how it all plays out.
ReplyDeleteThank you @WeatherGeek for keeping us updated on our ever so slow crawl with accumulations the last few days. Let’s recap little before we move forward on what looks like another eventful and interesting tracking week. So last week at this time we were at 74.7” and currently we sit at 80.3”, so we picked up 5.6” over the two snow events, not great but hey almost 2 field goals 😉(since we’re throwing football terms around)….if you recall I said this before our events of last week ..”so let’s let it play out and see where we end up, I’m hoping we are left with 14”-18” still to get for the record after Sunday as I’m still confident we still have one big snowstorm left in the season either later in March or April….I know it’s optimistic but we’re too close to not be.” So the magic number we need to reach is 98.6”, so we are 18.4” from breaking the record and long and behold we have another storm on the horizon and this one has the potential to be that big one I was alluding to. Yes there will be a lot of model changes and accumulations going up and down but there’s no question another system is on the way it’s just what flavor will it be and all the questions that come with it like too warm or too cold, track of storm, will a dry slot set up, when does rain change to snow, etc. etc. The two things I will be watching these next few days is the phasing of the two jets, if it happens early enough we have a big storm and does the storm linger in the area or is it a quick/progressive system. So before we jump on any one model depiction and claim “mostly rain” or “too warm” let’s let the storm do its thing and percolate a little. And just to throw this out there this mornings 06Z GFS has returned with more “eye candy” and very little rain with a 2ft dump of snow on the Twin Cities so if that happens you know what that means…….
ReplyDeleteLet’s break a damn record!!!
Thank you for that detailed play-by-play, Bigdaddy! Here's hoping for lots of flakes later this week. Also, Bill, I forgot to say, 'Thanks for the new thread for this week.'
DeleteI referred to the Top 10 that WeatherGeek posted in the prior thread a lot last week so I'm bringing it over to this one too. Hopefully we get something out of this week's storm. Thanks WeatherGeek for the research!
ReplyDelete1) 1983-84: 98.6 inches; 2) 1981-82: 95 inches; 3) 1950-51: 88.9; 4) 2010-11: 86.6; 5) 1916-17: 84.9; 6) 1991-92: 84.1; 7) 1961-62: 81.3; 8) 1951-52: 79; 9)1966-67: 78.4; 10) 2017-18: 78.3.
You are welcome, SWMpls Girl. Let it snow!
DeleteAll 12Z models for this afternoon are out and all still show a snowstorm affecting our area Thursday into Friday, some notable changes are abit less on qpf(moisture) and a more progressive system which maybe the reason for less moisture and in turn less inches, but all models still show anywhere from a 6-12” snowfall on average. We wait and see what updates occur later but I wouldn’t be surprised to see winter storm watches posted in our CWA some time tomorrow if this trend continues.
ReplyDeleteLETS BREAK A DAMN RECORD!
Here is an interesting article. The TC metro isn’t the only place in MN chasing snow records. Two Harbors has more than 50 inches on the ground!
ReplyDeletehttps://bringmethenews.com/.amp/minnesota-weather/duluth-hammered-with-heavy-snow-some-critical-of-citys-plow-response
It’s nice to see a positive winter story for a change. This is Minnesota (not Atlanta!)! Embrace winter!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.kare11.com/amp/article/news/local/some-minnesotans-are-embracing-the-8th-snowiest-winter/89-f4f6d89f-5ea6-4254-b0d6-3509cb734541
18Z NAM gives absolutely 0” of snow Thursday/Friday, how about those damn records!
ReplyDeleteKSTP WEATHER PAGE:
ReplyDeleteAnother round of snow is likely by the end of the week. It starts as light rain on Thursday. After sunset, it will change over to snow, with snow continuing into Friday. Like we saw last week, it is tough to get wet snow to accumulate during the day. Since this snow would be coming overnight, we stand a better chance to see it stick right away. The timing of rain changing to snow and the speed of the system will determine how much snow we get. We will hone in on forecast snow totals by the middle of the week, but chances are the shovels and snow blowers are coming out again.
That is one caveat I forgot earlier in my initial post….timing of the snowfall….if a majority of it falls on Thursday night we will have a greater accumulation and of course Friday because it will be much colder and hopefully all the “white rainer’s” will stay away this go around.
Speaking of KSTP (and since it's been a while since I lived there), have they been less aggressive in forecasts since Dave Dahl retired? (This is Bill)
DeleteNovak just posted (around 7:40 p.m.): "next storm system is locked and loaded for later this week." He has the metro in a 'moderate'/ anticipate problems band for late Thursday into Friday. "Snow and wind will wreak havoc." Now, we are close to the 'mix' precip band on his map........ hoping it stays snow. And he says, 'EXCEPT for Wed/Th, Arctic air will dominate the next 7 days." So yes to what y'all are saying above with respect to timing. Can't wait to see this system play out.
ReplyDeleteLatest model snow predictions for the metro for Thursday/Friday:
ReplyDeleteEuro: 2 inches
GFS: 5 inches
NAM: 0 inches
The latest Euro and NAM runs are taking the storm far south and east of MN. We will see if this trend continues.
Aw shucks. Thanks for the update, Joe. Also, for anyone with strib access, they have a feature story on the front page of my online edition today about CoCoRaHS.
ReplyDeleteOkay, snow lovers. Novak just posted THIS on his FB page (around 8 a.m.): "The inner-core urban heat island is doing wonders this AM. Currently, it is 0°F in Lakeville, yet 13°F @ MSP Int'l." And so my question is: 'Is this proof of why snow totals may be lacking at times at MSP airport?' And again: 'Is this proof that perhaps the official snow totals should be at NWS Chanhassen?' because of less 'heat island' effect? I was also going to be totally goofy and say that maybe airplanes blow away half the snow totals at MSP (just joking).... but it is food for thought. That is some temperature spread.
ReplyDeleteNovak’s exact words just a few minutes ago:
ReplyDeleteNext Storm system is locked & loaded for later this week. We will likely need to upgrade much our region into a high risk category as SNOW & WIND wreak havoc on the area by Thursday evening.
Good news!!
ReplyDeleteThe short term weather models that had been showing pretty much nothing for the Twin Cities has the storm tracking closer and is now spitting out some accumulations
12Z NAM: 3-5”
12Z RDPS: 3-5”
Let’s hope the trend continues because we(repeat after me)….
HAVE A DAMN RECORD TO BREAK!
I repeated it over and over and have been telling everyone I know that we are going for it. Someone moaning about beautiful snow in Ohio: I just said she should ship it to MN. We need it for our crawl up the records ladder........
DeleteYou beat me to it, Bigdaddy! Latest (12z) for the metro: GFS (8 inches, previous run was 5 inches); NAM (3 inches, previous run was 0 inches). The models now show the storm tracking through northern Missouri to east central Iowa and then northeast into Wisconsin.
ReplyDeleteYes, yes I did beat you to it! I believe your using the 10:1 ratio on that GFS, I believe the more accurate read would be the Kuchera method because yes initially we will be warmer(above freezing) but Thursday night we get much colder, 20’s, and stay there Friday, so the ratio should be raising. The Kuchera on the 12Z GFS is for 12”, the 12Z GDPS(Canadian) has 9”. What this all means to me is we still have a healthy snowstorm on the table and like I said yesterday winter storm watches will probably be going up!
DeleteMy apologies. I didn't capture the entire event via the GFS. The GFS is showing 11 inches, not 8 inches.
ReplyDelete12Z EURO is in…. 6-7” straight across the core metro(this is 10:1 ratio, don’t have access to Kuchera for Euro)so chances are accumulation is a bit higher.
ReplyDeleteAfter seeing all the 12Z data I will be surprised if the NWS doesn’t post watches for our area for Thursday/Friday.
This is clearly fantasy talk at this point
ReplyDeleteWell, Novak has 4-8+ inches for the metro on his most recent map as the storm shifts a bit like those above have said, so it's not PURE fantasy to hope for top five and more at this point. Plus, even if it warms up the week after, one never knows what happens in April. It's not May til it's May. Let it snow.
DeleteMy WxUnderground point forecast today has gone with the trends....started at 3.8", down to 3.4', then 2.8", and just now went back up to 3.5". This is all in the past 8 hours.
ReplyDeleteI also realize that's not the most scientific indication, but I don't have access to model runs. And following what you all post on here for model runs, it's just cool to see the point forecast follow the same swings/trends that you are seeing. That's all!
DeleteOh...and I think there was one other thing important that I wanted to mention. What was that again?
Oh yeah......BRRRRRIIIIIIIING IIIIIIIIIIIIT!!!
GFS 18Z came in and it ain't playing around! Using the 10:1 ratio it paints out a nice 11.3 inches for MSP.
ReplyDeleteExactly!! I’m not sure at all why the NWS is pussyfooting around with not putting out watches for this system. Every model I’ve seen today has increased their totals or remained over the 6+” threshold.
DeleteA few examples:
-18Z GFS(Kuchera) 14-16”
-18Z NAM(Kuchera) 4-6”
-18Z RDPS(Kuchera) 5-7”
-12Z UKMET(10:1) 6-8”
-12Z EURO/CANADIAN we’re both over 6”
-Novak has 4-8+”
So yeah I’m a little dumbfounded and surprised, we are also inside 48hrs of the storm which usually triggers a watch. Can anyone tell me what I’m missing?
I never thought I would come to a weather blog and see the word pussyfooting! Good one, Bigdaddy.
DeleteLack of consistency in the models. They were burned last week with the 3-7” prediction and premature WWA that should not have been issued, or at the very least, delayed by about 12 hours. It turned into a nuisance snowfall that didn’t warrant the headlines.
ReplyDeleteI'm confident we will see consistency in tonight's model runs. I'd say 90% of the system off the coast of Cali will be inland by 0Z. Which should give models enough data to come into agreement.
DeleteThis is why weather is so fascinating to me! There are so many models with data being poured into them, and yet they are often on different pages. As a minimum, they have noticeable variations. Models are only as good as the data they collect, and the humans that programmed them. I like it when meteorologists, like Novak, use all of the information they have available to them, all of the charts and graphs available to them, and use their experience and gut to boldly make predictions. Again, I am fascinated with Weather as you are all as well.
ReplyDeleteIf we knew what was going to happen, this page would not be very fun! And neither would predicting the weather!
Bring it!!!
Good thing we have Novak, if it wasn’t for him we would have no idea a major snowstorm(defined as 6+”) is less than 40hrs from commencing was nearing if we only followed the NWS.
ReplyDeleteHis update travel impact puts the metro dead center to the “high risk area” with this commentary:
The upcoming late week storm has a ton going for it. Solid dynamics, plenty of Gulf moisture, cold Arctic air & a deepening low pressure. This should be interesting.
NWS point forecast calls for rain changing to snow 1-3” for metro, that’s it.
Too conservative!!
Novak alerts you to the possibility of large storms in the region, just like the NWS does if you take the time to read their daily discussions. They are both interpreting the same data, and likely coming to the same or very similar conclusions.
DeleteThis morning’s model runs were showing a much different storm, which is likely why the NWS held off on headlines/watches. If we can get some consistency, then expect headlines. Quite possibly this evening or tomorrow a.m. Novak also benefits by his social media agility. A one man operation can quickly change the message. A government institution with many more people, is going to be more measured to react. Don’t get me wrong, I do like Novak for the most part, but I do think the NWS deserves credit.
I’d actually love it if the NWS put out storm discussion videos, like Novak does, where they talk about how any given event might play out.
Don’t get me wrong, I enjoy and appreciate the work of the NWS and believe you me I read the discussion religiously twice a day and even the airport discussions. But in this instance they are being too conservative and waiting too long when they already had several models agreeing with at least 6” in our CWA, don’t get me wrong I’m not saying the entire CWA should be in a Watch but “some” should be up already for the possibility….let me refresh everyone’s mind what a definition of a watch is:
DeleteA winter storm watch is issued by the National Weather Service of the United States when there is a possibility of heavy snow or potential of significant ice accumulations, without meeting a specific other winter criteria. The watch is typically issued 12 to 48 hours before the storm's expected arrival in the given area. The criteria for this watch can vary from place to place, which is true with other winter weather warning and advisories.
As the event of the storm draws nearer in time and confidence in the occurrence of significant winter weather conditions and accumulation is increased, the weather watch will be upgraded to a winter storm warning or blizzard warning, depending on whether blizzard conditions will be met.
So you see if a possibility exists then a watch should be up already, in my honest opinion they are being too cute and waiting too long. And as usual a watch can easily be downgraded to an advisory or upgraded to a warning, as stated above. The local Mets usually follow the NWS lead, they have been very very quiet on this the last two days because the NWS don’t have any headlines….you see more coverage on the news and social media from all corners of the weather world if headlines are present.
I know I said a lot and this is just my two cents.
Reading the definition again I guess the only saving grace if we’re following it to a T is the issuing from 12 to 48 hours.
DeleteI think if this was happening earlier in the year we would have already had headlines. They are giving it a bit more time before they pull the trigger since it takes so much longer for snow to impact travel this time of year as we have seen with recent snowfalls. This is all complete conjecture on my part. I would love to be a fly on the wall at the NWS when they make their decisions for a forecast.
DeleteVery true; Paul Douglas says this re: "The Indelicate Art of Predicting Snowfall" : "Let's face this head-on: snowstorms in recent weeks have been um...disappointing. The rough equivalent of swiping right, only to cringe when the date shows up at your dinner table.
DeleteMeteorologists attempt to set expectations and some storms are easier to predict than others. As a rule weather models overpredict snow. We automatically discount amounts, but there is no question that as a profession, we overpredict snow. Predict 6" and wind up with 3-4"? Meh. But predict flurries and get a foot? You will be tarred and feathered in the town square." So maybe this is why the forecasts are trending as they are from NWS.
18Z Euro at 4.7 for MSP and the GFS appears to be on crack at 13". Considering we are a couple of days out, this is a pretty big difference. They seem to agree on the track for the most part. GFS has slightly more moisture but the Euro keeps it warmer a little longer.
ReplyDeleteAppears the NWS is going with the Euro for now. What a crazy winter.
GFS seems more plausible for this time of year though. Heavy thundersnow on the NW side of a low this time of year is almost a given.
DeleteI love the name 'Not Paul Douglas' for this blog; I just posted above some thoughts 'the real Paul Douglas' has about forecasting and the result when those forecasts aren't what people expect from his March 10th Strib column.
DeleteGfs is almost never more plausible. Ignore it.
ReplyDeleteIn this situation I'm more inclined to believe the GFS model. Most of the time high resolution models struggle on getting a grasp on storms when they undergo rapid intensification. There is a ton of energy wrapped up in this storm and they usually don't handle it very well until 36 hours out or less.
DeleteMany of the overnight 00Z models are out and all point towards a major snowfall(6+”):
ReplyDelete-00Z GFS 6-8”
-00Z Canadian 6-8”
-00Z NAM 6-8”
-00Z RDPS 4-6”
-HRW FV3 8-12”
We will have very impactful weather and roads, temperatures on Thursday will be falling all day, any wet roads early will begin to become snow covered with black ice underneath then throw in the very windy conditions. This has watch written all over it, and I have seen the NWS just upgrade or throw out a headline even though it’s not their normal update time and they still haven’t tonight and all I see on the models is consistency after consistency.
The winter storm watch has been hoisted for the Twin Cities metro! 1 p.m. Thursday through 7 a.m. Friday. Awesome discussion / analyses above to wake up to. Thank you everyone. It's going to be funny for me to do NOAA skywarn spotter training tonight on the cusp of another winter storm. BRING IT. Let it snow.
ReplyDeleteFun fact. 6 (2001, 2011, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2023) of the top 19 all-time snowiest Twin Cities winters have occurred since 2001.
ReplyDeletehttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQUDOtXzxA4l8wp-3TXNPX_1u_5Wp_sjo7Foa4BxBROVfqIse2n42cX-GPp7N5v7a-gR1VzwEbDlCRx/pubhtml#
Anything Earth-shattering in the 12z runs?
ReplyDelete12z runs for TC metro
ReplyDeleteNAM: 3 inches
GFS: 8 inches
Thanks Joe! So it looks like the NAM went down and the GFS is at the upper end compared to the 0z. Interesting to see there’s still model inconsistencies. Tough one to forecast, but fun to watch it play out!
DeleteYou're welcome, JAW. Unfortunately the NAM has decreased by 2 inches in each of its last 3 runs: 7 inches (00z), 5 inches (06z), 3 inches (12z). Also, the 12z Euro is now only showing 2 inches.
DeleteThe 12z Euro 2 inches is a 10:1 ratio.
ReplyDeleteI must admit that for the past day or so I haven't had a good feeling about this storm, from a snow fan's perspective. I hope I'm wrong.
ReplyDeleteI don't get the Winter Storm watch. Looks more like a nuisance.
ReplyDeleteNot Paul Douglas...the NWS read your post and dropped it down to a WWA 2 mins later!
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately it looks like my gut feeling was right. This is going to be a nuisance at best for the TC metro. I know a week ago when all of us saw the eye candy numbers the models (especially the GFS) were reflecting that the end result would likely be nothing anywhere near that, but I was secretly hoping we would get one final dumping before the end of the season. Yes, that is still possible, but keeping with someone's football analogy, we're practically at the two minute warning now. I heard someone (Novak?) say the issue for most of southern MN, including the TC metro, for this system is the snow is expected to fall during the afternoon when it is more likely to have a difficult time accumulating, just like the past couple of snowfalls here. The areas that are expecting snow during the night are still under a watch. I notice the NWS point forecast for my area in the western metro is now down to a 50% chance of snow tomorrow night. Earlier today it was 80%.
ReplyDeleteHow quickly things change. This is from the NWS at 5:20AM this morning! Notice the metro with a solid 4-6 inches prediction, and the northwest quadrant of the metro under 6-8 inches prediction. The NWS forecast today for sunny and 45 was half right. They got the temperature correct, but it's been mostly cloudy all day. Also, there are a lot of radar echoes showing up now in MN. The official forecast doesn't call for any precipitation until tomorrow morning.
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/NWSTwinCities/status/1635951386042200064/photo/2
All watch areas of Minnesota have been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory, except there are warnings posted for northeast Minnesota and the south shore of Wisconsin. This includes my fellow snow junkie friends' place in Duluth, who are always teasing me that Duluth rarely misses out on any Minnesota snowstorm. The exception being storms that barely clip far southern Minnesota. Looks like they are right again!
ReplyDeleteThe current forecast is disappointing. This system has been "on again", "off again". We need 1.1" to take over 7th place as the
ReplyDeleteall-time snowiest Twin Cities winter. We need 3.9" to take over 6th place. I feel confident we will take over 7th place before the end of the season. Maybe we will grab 6th place too! Starting next Tuesday through the following week (March 21 - April 1), the long range forecast is calling for highs each day in the 40's.
Easy up everyone snow is still in the forecast for today, all 00Z models show varying amounts… 3-4” seems like the best bet but some are 6+” so hopefully that localized heavier snow falls around the airport, like I always say when snows in the air anything is possible. I see the watch was hoisted this morning but I’ll stick with it should have been Tuesday afternoon, considering the models and data the watch was definitely warranted and so is the downgrade to an advisory considering the models and trends.
ReplyDeleteIf we’re going to throw out the football terminology Winter is 4 quarters, starts in December and ends in March, considering we are mid-March we are midway thru the 4th quarter, yes time is running short but we still have some and don’t forget overtime(April). We should climb the snow list tomorrow with whatever falls and I still say we have one more major snowstorm left in our season…climate predictions has us colder then average and above average precipitation for the rest of March so it ain’t over. In fact all models show some sort of organized system a week from today, with rain and/or snow or both and some eye candy again, so don’t throw in the towel just yet until the fat lady sings!
LETS BREAK A DAMN RECORD! 18.4 TO GO!
When Mr. Novak posts: "bust potential is high," it's sad for we who love snow. It's going to be a rollercoaster day weather-wise. "Bring it." We would have had that 18.4, Bigdaddy, without all the rain this 'winter.'
ReplyDeleteI hear you @WeatherGeek, winter rain sucks and definitely robs us of inches, including today’s weather as well starting as rain.
DeleteHang in there everyone. Winter is not over and we know that snows (whether some like it or not - and most of us do) can happen even into May. We are at March 16 with some models hinting and snow potential looking out over the next two weeks. Translation: The atmosphere is not predicted to go undergo a major shift to spring (whether we like it or not) and conditions are conducive to storm devleopment.
ReplyDeleteI am doing the "hand in there" dance for my fellow snow lovers.
Bring it!!
Latest model runs:
ReplyDeleteGFS (06z): 3 inches
Euro (00z): 3 inches (10:1 ratio)
NAM (12z): 2 inches
HRRR (13z): 2 inches
Second time now Novak mentions the word BUST on social media…he’s worried. Translation=this is a nothing burger.
DeleteI saw that too. I think 1-2 inches will be the general theme for the core metro. Hoping for more, but I don't feel confident in that.
DeleteThanks for the update, Joe. I hope it's a nothing burger for the 6 p.m. commute today. The temp has been dropping like a proverbial rock since early this morning.
DeleteSteady cold rain in Brooklyn Park. Uugghh The rain has really “rained” on our snow parade this season in our attempt to become the snowiest TC winter.
ReplyDeleteYou can say that again. :+( Bummer.
DeleteFlakes starting to fly just west of the core Metro. And the wind is REALLY picking up.
ReplyDeleteYup was just going to say west metro is transitioning to snow. Come on Mother Nature surprise us at MSP…don’t care at my house anymore…MSP needs it more!
DeleteThe Euro is showing snow for the metro next Thursday (March 23) with the storm traveling through Iowa. On the other hand, the GFS is showing rain with the storm traveling north through eastern South Dakota.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteWe can still discuss it if we wish. You should give yourself a name for your presence. I always wonder if 'anonymous' is the same 'anonymous' or wonder exactly how many 'anonymous' folks are stepping in here. Even if it's a bust, we can still talk about it. It's not done, yet, either, so why 'move on'?? Be kind. Thank you.
DeleteHey Anon @ 3:40pm - it's rude to come onto a discussion board for the sole purpose of discussing snow events and suggesting we move on WHEN IT'S ACTUALLY SNOWING. Doing this under the guise of anonymity is just cowardly. You are free to take your advice though and move on.
DeleteSo let me understand something, btw I gave myself a name(I’m the anonymous from 3:40 who’s comment erroneously got deleted), so Novak can use the word bust in his social media posts and we’re good but I use it here and people get bent out of shape, why is that word so taboo here even if it’s still snowing? I consider myself a weather enthusiast and follow this blog often so when I said it was a bust I already looked at current observations, snowfall intensity and radar and can see not much was ahead and the whole system was very progressive not allowing snow to accumulate much in one spot especially here in the metro, and as I type this the snow is already over and MSP will be lucky to have picked up 1”, so we should all like I mentioned earlier move on to the next potential if there is a another one!
DeleteIt's the way you said it, White rain. Good to know you are White rain, now. I enjoyed your white rain comments because I never thought of snow in those terms before. However, the tone of the deleted comment seemed to dismiss those of us still rooting for snow in the midst of an advisory that wasn't yet done. You were telling us to 'move on' in seemingly stern tones. And yes, Mr. Novak can use the word 'bust' but he rarely does. Some people would call the snowfall that was supposed to be 'epic' in the recent past a 'bust' when it was anything 'but'..... 'Bust' is sometimes thrown around this blog way too often. Every inch counts. I'm glad you have a name, now, and I look forward to your comments in the future. Thank you for your commentary.
DeleteWelcome, White Rain! I hope you will continue to post under that name. It was white raining on me yesterday while I was walking the dog and I thought of you. :-) The words you used in your now deleted post weren't the problem, it was *how* they were used. It came across as dismissive. Anyways, this storm is done so I now have moved on...to the next snow opportunity. Or white rain opportunity. Or as my forecast shows for next Thursday, a thunder opportunity. That's the fun in all this.
DeleteIn addition to taking over 7th place on the snowiest Twin Cities winters list today (?), I think we have a good chance next week of entering the top 10 list for most consecutive days with at least one inch of snow cover!
ReplyDeletehttps://patch.com/minnesota/minneapolis/amp/31265527/its-been-over-100-days-since-minnesotans-could-touch-grass
As of 1:30 a.m., MSP measured .1" of snow!!! Did the wind blow it sideways and away? We got more than that around my place, but so be it. Thus, we are at 80.4 inches for the season. Chanhassen got .9 and has a total of 91.6 inches. And believe it or not, Mr. Novak agreed when I posited on his FB page that perhaps the 'heat island effect' might be affecting MSP snow totals. We sure know the rain is affecting snow totals this winter. Who would have thought that could be possible? So.much.rain.
ReplyDeleteForgot to say: it was .25 of rain for Chan and .20 rain for MSP. Sorry it wasn't today's cold........ for snow, snow, snow. Have a good Friday and weekend everyone.
ReplyDeleteIt is absurd that MSP measured only .1” of snow! How is that possible? We clearly got more than that. If that .1” stands as the officially accurate measurement, then this storm was truly one of the biggest busts we have had in a very long time around here!
ReplyDeleteYeah, strange. It's that 'heat island' going on, maybe. Maybe if we can keep getting little spurts of snow as we warm up.... I'm not giving up until May on at least a top five snowiest winter, but we have had SO many rain events this season. I was trying to find them all to add up the rain, but it takes time, and I quit. I wager we have had a good 2 inches of rain with three of these events this season. If that had been snow........
DeleteAnd look at the nice cold air in place right now. Oh, if the 'rain' had fallen today............ or tomorrow even.......
DeleteBut I wouldn't think the MSP airport is a per se heat island. The heat island would be more like downtown Minneapolis with all of the buildings and concrete. If anything, the airport is fairly wide open, though I don't know specifically where at the airport they measure their snow. I wonder whether the .1 inches was an issue of the wind blowing the snow away at the airport? I agree with previous comments that this storm was a big bust. There is no doubt about that, but I also know we picked up more than .1 inches of snow. To your point, WeatherGeek, it is quite unfortunate the rain this season has all but ruined our chances at breaking the snowiest winter record. Sorry, Bigdaddy, but it will take a miracle for us to break the record now. Temps in the 40's and possibly 50's are rearing their heads starting next week. I absolutely love snow, but I must agree with the notion that we are at the two minute warning in the fourth quarter. Does Mom Nature have a two minute drill to pull out of her hat?
DeleteFor what it's worth, the last 6 runs of the Euro have called for several inches of snow next Thursday in the metro. The GFS, which is usually calling for tons of snow, is showing 1 inch. The official NWS forecast is for mostly rain. We'll see how it all plays out in the end.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteI had to delete a comment just cuz my punctuation was going to confuse people: "Thanks for the update Joe and thanks for the analysis, Tim. All those 'freezing rain' mentions in next week's NOAA outlook for my zip code do not make me happy. Let it snow, please. Sometimes I'm pessimistic, so it seems worse than a two-minute warning right now, but I'll use the analogy to keep the football /uh, the snow moving down the field.
DeleteNWS bumped snowfall this afternoon/tonight from 30% to 80%. Totals being ~0.5" each, but hey!
ReplyDeleteOh, cool! Thanks for that bit of info. Now we are at 80.6 MSP. Chan didn't budge. Thanks again, darrikinchamplin, for that update/bump. Seventh place snowiest winter= 81.3. Oh, we are so close.
DeleteAnd now...... 80.8 inches MSP with .2 of an inch of snow as of 1:42 a.m.
ReplyDeleteBring on the warmer temperatures! Bring on the sun! Bring on the greening grasses! Bring on Thunderstorms! Thanks for everything winter of 2022-2023, you did an amazing job!
ReplyDeleteFully grown adult trying to bait out a response that's just sad.
DeleteNot true at all. Sounds like someone is trying to read something there that isn’t there. Tomorrow is the first day of spring. Some of us want it to show up! Grow up and quit assuming.
DeleteOh, yeah. NWS update: .4 of snow today at MSP, so up to 81.2 inches. / seventh place is 81.3? I think we can beat that. Sixth place is 84.1 inches. What do you all think?
ReplyDeleteI am cautiously optimistic about getting more accumulating snow this season. The NWS has steadily lowered high temperatures for this upcoming week, and introduced more “snow” wording. Let’s continue breaking some snow records! Let it Snow!! Let it Snow!!
ReplyDeleteIf you read the NWS forecast discussion, you will see that whoever was writing it must be watching the NCAA tourney and said “ain’t got no time for that”! Shortest discussion I have ever seen.
ReplyDeleteTotally agree! Had the same thought that it was lame and disinterested. No effort
DeleteNothing too interesting for this week, a few chances of light snow but nothing significant. The following week on the other hand looks really interesting. Very very cold air will be over us for late March standards and with an active jet stream to our south... the potential will be there for a major snowstorm. Way too far out for any specifics though.
DeleteSo we actually did break a record(not the seasonal snowfall record YET!)…..most consecutive months with double digit snowfall
ReplyDeleteNovember 22’…..13”
December 22’…19.8”
January 23’…….22.3”
February 23’……15.5”
March 23’……..10.2”(so far)
That's cool! Thanks for posting the details.
DeleteToday is Day 111 of consecutive days with at least one inch of snow cover. 114 puts us in the top 10 all-time for the TC metro.
ReplyDeleteWe will easily pass 114 and then some…probably to somewhere around first week of April, the colder/cooler basis lingers for awhile, now if we can get a snowstorm to go with that basis!
DeleteI agree. Here’s the top 10 list:
DeleteApril 10, 1965 (136 days)
April 4, 1951 (134 days)
March 28, 1982 (130 days)
March 22, 1979 (126 days)
March 24, 1986 (123 days)
March 21, 1997 (122 days)
April 4, 2001 (119 days)
March 18, 1972 (117 days)
March 21, 1956 (115 days)
March 18, 1953 (114 days)
Sorry, that’s me as “Anonymous” above
ReplyDeleteI have a mathematical correction. Today is actually Day 112 (not 111) of continuous snow cover of at least one inch, officially, in the TC metro. The streak started November 29, 2022.
ReplyDeleteWe also had at least one inch of snow cover continuously from November 14 - 23, 2022.
ReplyDeleteThe NWS the last few days had been calling for snow likely Wednesday or Wednesday night in the metro. I therefore felt very confident we would pick up the .2 inches we need to take over 7th place on the snowiest TC winter list. However, this afternoon the NWS dropped the chance of snow for the metro tomorrow/tomorrow night to 20%. The system is going farther south. Unfortunately, the extended forecast through next week does not look promising for accumulating snow for the metro.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteAs the snow slowly melts, Paul Douglas posted this on his Strib blog today: "Fox9 says March is the fifth consecutive month with 10 inches or more of snow at MSP. That's the first time this has happened since records began in 1884." I'm still hoping for some more snow one or more of the days this month and next.
ReplyDeleteTwin Cities is now tied for 10th place for consecutive days with at least one inch of snow cover! Here are positions 7- 9 on the list:
ReplyDeleteApril 4, 2001 (119 days)
March 18, 1972 (117 days)
March 21, 1956 (115 days)
Slight correction Joe, 8.4” of snow fell on 11/29 but after 6am(6am is official time snow depth measurement taken for that day), so we officially hit day #114 tomorrow at 6am.
DeleteThanks, Bigdaddy...today is 114, so we are tied for 10th place!
DeleteLooks like something may be brewing for next week Fri/Sat. Both the GFS and Euro show some substantial snow happening in the central part of MN around then.
ReplyDeleteThoughts:
ReplyDelete- I have to admit the last 3 snow systems were very underwhelming, couple that we missed another snowfall to the north last night and one to the south tonight, like many have said time is running out.
- we stand at 81.2”….98.7” is the goal…..17.5” is not out of the question considering April has delivered major snowstorms in the past, long shot yes! but not 0%.
- On the snowcover front….temperatures aren’t going to get too far out of hand, above freezing yes but still below normal which could last into first week of April, if we get more snow(especially a major one) we could threaten the top spot, as I see it now a top 5 is a good bet, everyone must remember this snow cover measurement is taken at MSP which traditionally all winter has measured less then everyone around them….so you might still have 8/10/12” in your yard…..MSP is down to 4” as of today.
-Frustrating thing is is that the temperatures and atmospheric profile has been cold enough for snow almost all month but the timing of the systems during the day hasn’t helped(except for last night’s track was north of us), moving ahead rest of this week looks quiet but the always eye catching eye candy pops up again next week, we’ll see what happens!
Further thoughts:
Delete-MSP is down to 2” now for snow cover, much less snow there then I thought and going quicker then I thought even though temps are on the cool/colder side that Sun angle is a snow killer regardless of cloud cover, we could be at 0” by tomorrow now…if not definitely over the weekend.
- The eye candy for next week is still there, but a very moving target with us get a majority of rain now.
- I do believe once we break this northwesterly/west flow and temperatures do finally get into the 50’s and 60’s with warm air ridging as opposed to troughs and cooler pool of air that that will be it for winter…there won’t be any flip flopping back and further, once we switch and flip it’s spring full steam ahead….we certainly had our chances and cooler flow for March but up until now nothing big has materialized, I’m still hoping for something but damn that two minute warning is getting near!
Hi Bigdaddy, thanks for sharing your thoughts. Here are some of my own. I couldn't believe it when I saw we are officially down to two inches of snow cover. We lost two inches yesterday? Yes, the late March sun is strong, but I watch the snow pile on my deck each day, which is in direct sunlight until late afternoon when it becomes shaded (which works out great in the summer...just in time for happy hour and avoid the searing sun!) and I have not recorded a day where it decreased by two inches. That is something that happens when we have heavy rain or temperatures well into the 40's or higher. Also, for my work I drive all around the metro. I can't think of any place that has as little as two inches of snow on the ground. Like the temperatures, the airport IMHO is not representative of the metro area. As for more accumulating snow, I'm not writing it off just yet, but the hour is growing very late. I too think once Spring weather has sprung, it's here to stay. I love winter and I love snow, but I also enjoy all of the seasons. I look forward to warm sunny spring days with a gentle breeze blowing through the open windows while I am rooting the Twins on to victory!
DeleteNext Thursday/Friday we have something brewing, but what flavor? It’s all going to come down to track…..
ReplyDeleteDoes it go west of us and draw up a ton of warm air and it’s all rain or does the storm travel south of us then northeast into the Lakes keeping us on the cold side with mostly snow or does it travel near us giving us a mix with a rain changing to snow scenario. The models have been flip flopping with all those scenarios so let’s give it some time and see what happens but if we want to climb the snow list we all know which scenario we need!
Today is day #116 of at least 1” consecutive snow cover…..amazingly MSP is still at 2”, don’t know what goes on there and how the measurements go but they dropped to 2” super fast and now stuck there for 3 days even though yesterdays 44° was the second warmest day of the month(45° x2 is the warmest), if we get to #117 we tie for 8th!
ReplyDeleteMaybe someone should ask MSP what is going on. Seems odd that the depth would not be gone given the temps. Where are you looking for the snow depth? May also be time for a new thread as things are changing what with precip in the long term and the snow days race.
ReplyDeleteGreg
DeleteWeather.gov > Twin Cities, MN > Climate
I go to the Twin Cities local NWS page….there’s a tab for “past weather” so you can go to any month in the past or look at the current month.
The snow cover days has come to an end at #116….MSP measured a trace at 1am this morning.
DeleteI know I know you still have 6+” in your yard!
For once cant the GFS be correct!
ReplyDelete12Z GFS is a snow bomb for us, and the kind of last major snowstorm I speak of for this season.
No kidding; looked at 'time and date' just now and it puts out an April Fool's 26" of snow on Saturday. Just ha ha ha oh I wish. Not going to happen, but I took a screen shot on the laptop just for a reminder all this week.
DeleteNow three hours later, the 26" is down to a 'respectable' and still April Fools total of 13.9". Ha. How I wish it were true!
DeleteGood article about the snow cover streak and the discrepancy between MSP snow measurements compared to most of the rest of the metro.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cbsnews.com/amp/minnesota/news/msps-streak-of-1-of-snow-cover-comes-to-an-end-per-nws/
Thanks for the link, Joe.
DeleteEveryone should read this mornings NWS discussion, winter isn’t over after you read that…could be two winter systems on the horizon!
ReplyDeleteDid someone say..let’s break a damn record…your damn right I did!!
Yet none of the models are showing any significant snowfall through Saturday.
DeleteYes, Bigdaddy, I posted the unimaginable snow totals timeanddate was pushing out early this morning as an April Fools on me, I'd wager. I wish it were true, but as Anonymous above says, other models must be showing nothing much because NWS/etc are very quiet. Now, Novak does have a 'watch closely!' for that late week time period, but..... ..... ...... hoping and waiting.............
DeleteTypical Anonymous just popping in and adding nothing to the conversation, I guess the latest EURO model showing over 19” for the metro over the next ten days is “none of the models are showing significant snowfall” and @WeatherGeek NWS is always conservative especially this time of year with their forecast so they wait closer to the event but did you actually read their discussion?
DeleteI went to read the discussion from early this a.m. now since you're pointing me that way, Bigdaddy; there are still a lot of things that can happen rain-wise to wreck the snow train, but I'm not giving up. I've always kind of been a pessimist in life. I would love an awesome snow event for April Fools, yes I would. Plymouth Weather Lover: please start dancing.
DeleteLike Bigdaddy isn't 'anonymous' ? Oh the irony.
DeleteI obviously don’t k ow whether we will get any additional accumulating snow this week or not. However, I do agree with Bigdaddy that the NWS is going to be extremely conservative…especially after they absolutely blew the last snowstorm forecast. I haven’t forgotten their forecast of 6-8 inches the morning of the expected start of the event that ended up as .1 inch!
ReplyDeleteAnd to tag on what I just wrote to Bigdaddy, yes, I agree with your assessment, too, Joe; warm air has messed up a lot of forecasts this winter. I'll be watching Novak on FB this week, too.
DeleteFrom Novak on FB around 3 p.m. today: "The seasonably COLD weather pattern will continue for at least the next 5 days. Meanwhile, I'm becoming more concerned about a messy storm system for Friday. Someone in southern MN/WI will likely receive some heavy wet, concrete-like SNOW."
ReplyDeleteFrom Novak on Twitter:
ReplyDeleteFriday really looks interesting as rain changes over to SNOW for many of us.
Well, that's a good sign!
DeleteMaybe by the end of this week we will get that .2 inches needed for 7th snowiest TC winter? While I understand the conditions of measuring snow at MSP (open field subjected to the sun and wind and in the middle of the urban heat island), I still shake my head when I drive around my neighborhood here inside the metro loop and see several inches of "trace" amounts of snow in every yard!
ReplyDeleteThe ECMWF puts a heavy band in southeastern Minnesota.
ReplyDeleteNovak on Twitter:
ReplyDeletePortions of southern MN & a good chunk of WI will be under the gun later Friday as a strong early spring storm system wraps-up over the region. Rain will likely change to wet SNOW for many. Here is your latest Travel Impact map.
Twin Cities is in a moderate impact
DeleteAlso Novak on Twitter:
DeleteWe have TWO big storms to monitor over the next 7 days. One later this week & the other early next week.
NWS has a ton of rain, possible thunder, then 4-8" of snow Friday night in the metro per this morning's forecast? Then 51 above on Sunday? Roller coaster! Bring it, especially the snow.
ReplyDeleteWe definitely need a new thread ........ thank you!
ReplyDeleteWhen I hear about not just ONE storm, but TWO storms, then I know it is time to do the “Break The Darn Record” Dance. It is in sight. It can be done. My dancing will ensure it is done!!
ReplyDeleteLet’s go!
Bring it!!!!
Does anyone have snowfall totals from the 03/29 06Z Euro thru the first storm? I can see the 850mb zero contour and QPF when it drops below zero, but not snow fall
ReplyDeleteClick on ECMWF at the top, choose the zone, then Winter at the left. You'll want Total Snow Accumulation. https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
DeleteThank you, been awhile since I checked COD
DeleteNew thread! (Bill)
ReplyDelete