Let's be realists. Let's break 90 inches because NOW the NWS has "1-3" inches for the metro this weekend. Novak once again RULES! He's way ahead of NOAA a lot of the time. Can't wait for tomorrow morning.........
And Chanhassen has 98.9...... so let's break 100" there. Again, if we had not had so much RAIN this winter, we would easily be over 100" at the airport. Thanks for the new thread, Bill.
Models are going way up! In some cases drastically, like in the case of the 12Z NAM over 15”, some other short term models like HRRR, coming in with 9+”. I can see the NWS do a huge pivot here shortly with regards to our snow situation for tomorrow morning, like increase numbers by a bunch and expand the watch area. This is getting juicy real quick! BRING THE DAMN RECORD! 9” is the magic number!!
12z guidance is coming in much more aggressive than previous runs regarding accumulating snow potential. We are continuing to monitor the situation as more guidance comes in. But as of now, counties 30- 40 miles in either direction from the I-35 corridor is the main area of concern with significantly increasing confidence of winter weather headlines being issued this afternoon.
**Well there you have it folks that’s an update to the CWA discussion from this morning, which from time to time they do if things are revolving quickly….I fully expect a Winter Storm Warning for the immediate metro for late tonight into tomorrow. BUCKLE UP AND BRING THE DAMN RECORD!!
Here we go! We knew that this winter had a chance to break the all-time record! And this very large and powerful storm could be just what we needed to get to the all time, we will always tell her grandchildren, perfect scenario.
For the last several days and it continues, I have been doing my “bring the darn record“ dance, and I think it is working!
Agreed. I notice, though, that they have a few inches possible tonight and a few more tomorrow, so a spread of 3-7 last I counted? I can't wait to see what happens.
Literally hours from the event and some very aggressive model outputs…both the GFS/EURO have over a foot and so does the 18Z NAM/NEST(some at 15”)and yet a very conservative/ nonchalant 2-4” from the NWS. Wow! Should be interesting indeed!
I want to hit that #1 record, though noticing the 18z GFS has dropped to about 4" for MSP and the latest couple hours of the HRRR and RAP are down to about 2"
Yeah, NWS posted on FB/their feed a couple of hours ago: "We were just in the upper 80s for several days, the ground is very warm, and air temperatures are going to be right around freezing if not a little warmer. That introduces a LOT of uncertainty into how much snow will eventually stick. If it snows hard enough to all stick, some spots could see over 6 inches. If the warm air wins out it could only be an inch or two."
Worse bust of the season especially when models were showing double digit amounts just hours beforehand, even the beloved European was aboard. So don’t look now but the European already has a foot of snow for MSP for this Thursday night/Fri. We would easily have the record if some of these models verified
It was a bust from a model standpoint. However, I don't know of any forecaster who bought into the double-digit #s over southern MN & the Twin Cities metro. So far, this is playing out close to anticipated with 2.0" - 5.0" immediately northwest of the core metro. Areas like Wright & Sherburne counties are all white.
A whooping .3” Not 3” .3”!! So we made the 90” club, but the record is safe and later next week looking more and more wet. If you want the record travel thru Wisconsin tonight the snowfall will just absolutely blowup there.
Well, Chan got 1.8" and it's still 'snizzling' out there, and they have 100.7 inches for the winter, so that is very awesome, indeed. It's been a beautiful day even if the totals are not what we all wanted. Between the wind and the warmth in the ground after such insane record-breaking heat, it is what it is. It's been an interesting winter. I'm grateful for the snow that we DID get.
Three inches on my deck in Plymouth, despite some settling. Still snowing lightly and steadily! My sister in Shakopee just sent me a picture. They have a light dusting, if that! She was shocked at the pictures of my yard I sent her. Location! Location! Location! This brings my unofficial measurement in Plymouth this season to around 101 inches!
Time to give it up PWL! It was a worthy run but not record-breaking worthy. If you can’t break the record with several models showing double digit numbers merely hours beforehand then there’s nothing that can help the cause. Later this week rain followed cool weekend and then spring weather kicks in(not that extreme heat) of last week. Just going to have to enjoy 90.3”(you too Bigdaddy). See you all in October again!
As we end our season, from Todd Nelson filling in for Paul Douglas today at the Strib: "According to the NWS, this is officially the snowiest season on record at its office in Chanhassen. Despite records dating back to 1995 (when the Weather Service moved to the 'burbs), it's tallied more than 100 inches this season - WOW! The official Twin Cities data comes from the MSP airport, where certified weather observers take measurements every six hours. Th storm total over the weekend was only 0.6 inches. What?! Thanks to the 'urban heat island effect,' temperatures hovered at 32-35 degrees during much of the event. Light rain and snow was reported for 20 hours with very little accumulation. Several spots west of I 494 reported 4-6 inches, while a heavier swath of 10-20+ inches were reported across center Wisconsin through Monday." So now here I am/WeatherGeek: And so there we have it. We had MULTIPLE events, sayeth I, of rain/ 'heat island' this winter. We could have easily topped 100++++++ at MSP if not for the changes I see in the climate during my lifetime. It's been a great winter, snow lovers. Hope to see you all here next season. And another thanks to Bill for starting this blog in the past and for he/Dave for keeping it going.
Thanks to everyone for the lively discussions this winter! It's always fun and nice to feel connected to other weather dorks like me. I hope everyone has a fun, safe and healthy summer.
Sven has a good article today in Bring Me The News about the potential for a Super El Nino next winter.
I think I should put one part of this article by Sven just so we have it for reference next year: "If you’re a snow lover, sorry, El Nino is not your friend. There’s a strong correlation with below normal snowfall in addition to warmer temperatures in an El Nino pattern. Summer weather is much less affected by El Nino. In Minnesota, the winter impacts are the biggest." Let's pray we do NOT get what he calls the 'super' El Niño next year. It's a very good detailed read, so thanks again for pointing it out to us.
HELLO!!!! My fellow winter weather enthusiasts….it is that time when we all slowly come back to our beloved winter weather website where we prognosticate and hymn and holler over what the models spit out. I like to drop the first hint of winter weather nugget for the 2023-24 Winter season courtesy of our friends at the NWS, from this afternoon’s CWA discussion(10/18 PM):
Temperatures return back to normal values over the weekend along with mostly dry conditions, as mainly zonal flow aloft persists over the northern tier of the CONUS. Most ensembles then show a more active pattern developing by midweek which continues through the end of October. A more organized system or two with better chances for another round of widespread precipitation looks possible over the Upper Midwest midweek through next weekend. Temperatures will be relatively warm midweek, so we would likely only be dealing with rain with any systems midweek. However, a strong & consistent signal for below- normal temperatures continues to exist for late next week through the end of the month. Any organized systems during this time could bring the first winter weather of the season to portions of the Upper Midwest.
Dave and/or Bill our first thread of the new season can’t be far behind!?!? Welcome back everyone!!
SWMplsGirl checking in for another winter with y'all. Good to see some familiar names already. I'm going all in for seeing a bit of snow fall this weekend.
BRING IT!!!
ReplyDelete……THE DAMN RECORD!
ReplyDeleteLet's be realists. Let's break 90 inches because NOW the NWS has "1-3" inches for the metro this weekend. Novak once again RULES! He's way ahead of NOAA a lot of the time. Can't wait for tomorrow morning.........
ReplyDeleteAnd Chanhassen has 98.9...... so let's break 100" there. Again, if we had not had so much RAIN this winter, we would easily be over 100" at the airport. Thanks for the new thread, Bill.
ReplyDeleteRight now western WI is the winter storm watch winner........ what are all your models printing out for the metro? Thanks in advance.
ReplyDeleteModels are going way up! In some cases drastically, like in the case of the 12Z NAM over 15”, some other short term models like HRRR, coming in with 9+”.
ReplyDeleteI can see the NWS do a huge pivot here shortly with regards to our snow situation for tomorrow morning, like increase numbers by a bunch and expand the watch area. This is getting juicy real quick!
BRING THE DAMN RECORD!
9” is the magic number!!
Novak’s first numbers are out….
ReplyDeletecuts the metro with 2-5” to the west and 5-8” to the east. Let’s see what happens when he usually “massages” it later!
12Z GFS 10+” metro wide
ReplyDelete.UPDATE...
ReplyDeleteIssued at 1108 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023
12z guidance is coming in much more aggressive than previous runs
regarding accumulating snow potential. We are continuing to monitor
the situation as more guidance comes in. But as of now, counties 30-
40 miles in either direction from the I-35 corridor is the main area
of concern with significantly increasing confidence of winter
weather headlines being issued this afternoon.
**Well there you have it folks that’s an update to the CWA discussion from this morning, which from time to time they do if things are revolving quickly….I fully expect a Winter Storm Warning for the immediate metro for late tonight into tomorrow.
BUCKLE UP AND BRING THE DAMN RECORD!!
Here we go! We knew that this winter had a chance to break the all-time record! And this very large and powerful storm could be just what we needed to get to the all time, we will always tell her grandchildren, perfect scenario.
ReplyDeleteFor the last several days and it continues, I have been doing my “bring the darn record“ dance, and I think it is working!
BRING THE DARN RECORD!!!!
Ok I’m cool with you guys breaking the record but I beg you PWL to put your shoes in storage after this weekend! I implore you. :-)
ReplyDeleteEuro went all in on a foot of snow for MSP. LETS GET IT.
ReplyDeleteWatches hoisted mainly in Wisconsin. Winter Weather Advisory for much of Minnesota.
ReplyDeleteWWA for 2-4 inches for the metro? NWS is definitely not on board with the models. This should be interesting.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. I notice, though, that they have a few inches possible tonight and a few more tomorrow, so a spread of 3-7 last I counted? I can't wait to see what happens.
DeleteLiterally hours from the event and some very aggressive model outputs…both the GFS/EURO have over a foot and so does the 18Z NAM/NEST(some at 15”)and yet a very conservative/ nonchalant 2-4” from the NWS.
ReplyDeleteWow! Should be interesting indeed!
BRING THE DAMN RECORD!
Agreed, though now NWS has a few inches possible tonight and more tomorrow. Very confusing. And they hoisted a WWA .....
DeleteThis is a “I don’t know what’s going to happen and it’s too late in the season to care about it” forecast.
ReplyDeleteThanks for all the model outputs/updates, everyone.
ReplyDeleteI want to hit that #1 record, though noticing the 18z GFS has dropped to about 4" for MSP and the latest couple hours of the HRRR and RAP are down to about 2"
ReplyDeleteYeah, NWS posted on FB/their feed a couple of hours ago: "We were just in the upper 80s for several days, the ground is very warm, and air temperatures are going to be right around freezing if not a little warmer. That introduces a LOT of uncertainty into how much snow will eventually stick. If it snows hard enough to all stick, some spots could see over 6 inches. If the warm air wins out it could only be an inch or two."
DeleteWell, we got .39 of rain at MSP through 2:43 a.m.; oh if that had been snow, right? Let's see what we can eke out today. :+(
ReplyDeleteWorse bust of the season especially when models were showing double digit amounts just hours beforehand, even the beloved European was aboard. So don’t look now but the European already has a foot of snow for MSP for this Thursday night/Fri. We would easily have the record if some of these models verified
ReplyDeleteIt was a bust from a model standpoint. However, I don't know of any forecaster who bought into the double-digit #s over southern MN & the Twin Cities metro. So far, this is playing out close to anticipated with 2.0" - 5.0" immediately northwest of the core metro. Areas like Wright & Sherburne counties are all white.
ReplyDeleteHow much is the official MSP reporting? There is a solid 2+ inches in Maple Grove.
ReplyDeleteA whooping .3” Not 3” .3”!!
DeleteSo we made the 90” club, but the record is safe and later next week looking more and more wet. If you want the record travel thru Wisconsin tonight the snowfall will just absolutely blowup there.
Well, Chan got 1.8" and it's still 'snizzling' out there, and they have 100.7 inches for the winter, so that is very awesome, indeed. It's been a beautiful day even if the totals are not what we all wanted. Between the wind and the warmth in the ground after such insane record-breaking heat, it is what it is. It's been an interesting winter. I'm grateful for the snow that we DID get.
ReplyDeleteJust keeps snowing!
ReplyDeleteBring it!!!
Three inches on my deck in Plymouth, despite some settling. Still snowing lightly and steadily! My sister in Shakopee just sent me a picture. They have a light dusting, if that! She was shocked at the pictures of my yard I sent her. Location! Location! Location! This brings my unofficial measurement in Plymouth this season to around 101 inches!
ReplyDeleteBravo!!! Very nice.
DeleteHey Novak - what are you thinking in terms of snow possibilities for the storm this coming week in the Twin Cities? Bring it!
ReplyDeleteTime to give it up PWL! It was a worthy run but not record-breaking worthy. If you can’t break the record with several models showing double digit numbers merely hours beforehand then there’s nothing that can help the cause. Later this week rain followed cool weekend and then spring weather kicks in(not that extreme heat) of last week.
DeleteJust going to have to enjoy 90.3”(you too Bigdaddy).
See you all in October again!
As we end our season, from Todd Nelson filling in for Paul Douglas today at the Strib: "According to the NWS, this is officially the snowiest season on record at its office in Chanhassen. Despite records dating back to 1995 (when the Weather Service moved to the 'burbs), it's tallied more than 100 inches this season - WOW! The official Twin Cities data comes from the MSP airport, where certified weather observers take measurements every six hours. Th storm total over the weekend was only 0.6 inches. What?! Thanks to the 'urban heat island effect,' temperatures hovered at 32-35 degrees during much of the event. Light rain and snow was reported for 20 hours with very little accumulation. Several spots west of I 494 reported 4-6 inches, while a heavier swath of 10-20+ inches were reported across center Wisconsin through Monday." So now here I am/WeatherGeek: And so there we have it. We had MULTIPLE events, sayeth I, of rain/ 'heat island' this winter. We could have easily topped 100++++++ at MSP if not for the changes I see in the climate during my lifetime. It's been a great winter, snow lovers. Hope to see you all here next season. And another thanks to Bill for starting this blog in the past and for he/Dave for keeping it going.
ReplyDeleteThanks to everyone for the lively discussions this winter! It's always fun and nice to feel connected to other weather dorks like me. I hope everyone has a fun, safe and healthy summer.
ReplyDeleteSven has a good article today in Bring Me The News about the potential for a Super El Nino next winter.
https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-weather/super-el-nino-developing-what-it-could-mean-for-minnesotas-weather
Thanks for the link. Cheers to a good summer to you, too.
DeleteI think I should put one part of this article by Sven just so we have it for reference next year: "If you’re a snow lover, sorry, El Nino is not your friend. There’s a strong correlation with below normal snowfall in addition to warmer temperatures in an El Nino pattern. Summer weather is much less affected by El Nino. In Minnesota, the winter impacts are the biggest." Let's pray we do NOT get what he calls the 'super' El Niño next year. It's a very good detailed read, so thanks again for pointing it out to us.
DeleteWho knew that on Aug 11/2023 hail counts as a 'trace' of snow at MSP airport? Now I know. Amazing.
ReplyDeleteWow crazy
DeleteHELLO!!!! My fellow winter weather enthusiasts….it is that time when we all slowly come back to our beloved winter weather website where we prognosticate and hymn and holler over what the models spit out. I like to drop the first hint of winter weather nugget for the 2023-24 Winter season courtesy of our friends at the NWS, from this afternoon’s CWA discussion(10/18 PM):
ReplyDeleteTemperatures return back to normal values over the weekend along with
mostly dry conditions, as mainly zonal flow aloft persists over the
northern tier of the CONUS. Most ensembles then show a more active
pattern developing by midweek which continues through the end of
October. A more organized system or two with better chances for
another round of widespread precipitation looks possible over the
Upper Midwest midweek through next weekend. Temperatures will be
relatively warm midweek, so we would likely only be dealing with
rain with any systems midweek. However, a strong & consistent signal
for below- normal temperatures continues to exist for late next week
through the end of the month. Any organized systems during this time
could bring the first winter weather of the season to portions of
the Upper Midwest.
Dave and/or Bill our first thread of the new season can’t be far behind!?!? Welcome back everyone!!
If all this rain had been snow....... hello, Bigdaddy. Can't wait to see some flakes this weekend.
ReplyDeleteHey all! I was going to post a “welcome back” thread on November 1 barring any sudden weather surprises.
ReplyDeleteThanks for keeping the site up and running for our upcoming winter! Much appreciated.
DeleteHi Dave! Let’s get the party started now. Chance of snow in the TC this upcoming weekend! Hi All!!
ReplyDeleteSWMplsGirl checking in for another winter with y'all. Good to see some familiar names already. I'm going all in for seeing a bit of snow fall this weekend.
ReplyDelete