Wow, nearly half the "winter" is gone since the last post. Seems there's some talk that a late-week storm could materialize into something interesting. What are your thoughts?
Meanwhile, if you're wondering where the Minnesota snow has been, look to the far southwest. This has been the landscape for the last week in the foothills outside Albuquerque, New Mexico. We're trying to send it Minnesota's way.
YES! WINTER STORM WATCH METRO! Novak is 'on the money.' Thanks for the new thread, Bill, and lovely photo of YOUR snow! Dance, PWL.
ReplyDeleteYes, thank you, Bill! Seeing snow on cactus is crazy. Here's to MSP's first, hopefully, winter storm!
ReplyDeleteHere's the 12Z run snow totals from the MSP Airport using a variety of models. You should note there is a very sharp cut off between the south metro and north.
ReplyDeleteLatest Runs
12Z
GFS 7.8
ECMWF 6.8
GDPS 4.2
HRW FV3 9.2
ICON 9.7
NAM 11.2
NAM 13.0
RDPS 7.4
RRFSA 11.3
Thanks for the updates. I was getting nervous thinking it is 'too quiet' on here. Now we are downgraded to WWA, but still with 4-8" of blowing snow/dangerous windchills/etc in the metro. Bummer for the grandkids up in the north metro who want a bunch of white stuff, too! Thanks again for the latest runs. Keep 'em coming!
ReplyDeleteThis is going to be fun! I love it when snowstorms have a chance to really surprise us! And this one has a real chance to give us way more than anyone, other than Novak, indicated earlier in the week.
ReplyDeleteBRING IT!! Surprise us all!!!!!
The shifty dance is working.
Dancing. Dancing. Dancing.
BRING IT!!!!!
Let's go people! Bring on the predictions and prognostications!!
ReplyDeleteBRING IT!!!!
Tonight’s 00Z(midnight) weather models not looking good for a lot of snow, could be high bust potential. Most(not all) models now depicting a MSP snowfall of 1-4”.
ReplyDeletePut a fork in this one as well. Incoming bust! Mark my words, numbers coming way down.
ReplyDeleteWell, NWS/Novak still have decent totals; the storm has slowed a bit. I still have faith. Dance, PWL. I'm still hoping 4+ inches which is good for an event this winter.
ReplyDeleteExcerpts from the NWS forecast discussion this morning. I ask you, if we are being honest, can we really be surprised this is happening?
ReplyDelete“Today through Saturday night... The trend is not our friend tonight or this Winter. We`ve reduced snow amounts further and the day shift will likely need to continue that trend.”
“The gradient will likely see a rapid/steep drop off from a few inches of snow to nothing and if the trend continues the Twin Cities metro will be under the knife to trim amounts back further.”
This winter’s mantra: 14.2 remains safe!
ReplyDeleteLatest Runs 6Z (MSP - Airport)
ReplyDeleteGFS 6.1
ECMWF 4.8
GDPS 4.0
HRRR 5.0
HRW FV3 12.8
ICON 4.6
NAM 8.5
NAM3K 7.1
RAP 5.6
RDPS 4.4
RRFSA 12.3
I watched Novak’s video from last night, and saw his 9PM update on Facebook. I was left with excitement for a (finally!) nice sized snowstorm for the snow starved Twin Cities. I woke up this morning to see the NWS saying the complete opposite! Novak hasn’t updated this morning. Was this just fools gold?
ReplyDeleteTo be clear, I am not the same Bill that runs this website.
ReplyDeleteI can't believe 14.2 remains safe with at least three months to go and 6.4 at MSP 'already' (ha, I know, I know)...... we 'have to' at 'least' eke out enough between now and end of the snow season to top 14.2.... but I will also be my realistic self and respect those who keep repeating that number. Oh, let it snow!! P.S. Novak doesn't always update right away..... but he will comment when it's either happening or all said/done. PWL: dance. And thanks for the updates, Southern MN. Much appreciated.
ReplyDelete@WeatherGeek…I just want to say I always appreciate your comments and how civil/respectful you are. As for 14.2, well, it’s sad we are even having to think of that figure while we approach mid-January (our snowiest month). Our biggest snowfall this season was at Halloween!! December was a complete disaster for winter fans. While January has turned much colder, the snow, for the most part, continues to avoid us like the plague. I don’t know what is in store for the remainder of this winter, but at this point I sadly am not very optimistic.
ReplyDeleteThank you, Schnee Meister. Yes, I try to remain positive because I'm usually so pessimistic. I also try to be super respectful here and on Novak's FB page. And my brother has a winter-weather dependent business, so he is always on my mind being in need of 'winter.' I sure hope we can get something today/tonight when the hopes yesterday were so high. 14.2.... our new mantra.
Delete@Schnee Meister, November was a disaster as well. Let’s just say this snow season is a disaster which typically runs from October to April and for it to have snowed only 6” those far. Heck I can still see grass in January that’s sad!
DeleteLooks like a bust in Rochester too.
ReplyDeleteWow, I was thinking folks down in Rochester would be the ones that still picked up several inches. I guess overnight the storm must have really shifted significantly away from Minnesota. This is shaping up to be quite a bust, especially based on the forecasts from last night.
ReplyDeleteFrom Novak right now on his FB: "Here's the truth. Forecasters in MN/WI are kind of throwing darts right now because we really don't know how this large storm is going to evolve. Meanwhile, model guidance has not helped much & we heavily rely on them. So, be prepared for surprises."
ReplyDeleteNovak also just published on his FB page: "The first 1/2 of this Winter Storm is 'Busting' as I type. Is anybody surprised given how this 'El Nino' season has screwed us snow lovers? However, some of us will still get some snow this PM while the 2nd half of the storm arrives tomorrow. Here is your latest 24 hour potential snow map thru 7am tomorrow. " Now he has a 3-5" for the metro.... north metro 'nothing' from what I can see. Wow, wow, wow.
ReplyDeleteSome sun out right now in South Minneapolis. Nice day, actually.
ReplyDeleteIndeed! It's fascinating watching the radar around the metro.... snow trying so hard to arrive, and I swear the winds pushing it away back south/east..........
DeleteIt's snowing lightly here in 55126. Dusting of snow blowing around on the streets!
ReplyDeleteLet’s call it what it is, a huge BUST! Last night when I went to bed at 10PM forecasts for the core metro ranged from 4-8 inches (NWS) to 7-10 inches (Novak snow map). I woke up at 7AM this morning to a forecast that was almost polar opposite of what it was a few hours previously. How did the forecasters miss so badly in such a short period of time?
ReplyDeleteI hate using that 'bust' word (and like I say, I wish the cold would 'bust' like snow)..... Novak above from the copy/pastes I put on here says the models just aren't working and that he/others rely on models (along with what usually is Mr Novak's ability to peg the forecasts so well)...... I think the changing climate and huge el niño influence is just getting us. When I see Iowa's snow, and Wisconsin's snow, I am just salivating/wishing it were here. This 'nothingburger' was one great hope I had. So that 14.2 number....... it still stands and we will see what we get. Again: Novak assessed it as best he could in the quotes above. :+(
DeleteOh, yeah. It's finally snowing in SLP..... mostly sideways with these winds, but it's definitely snowing out there. Yay.
ReplyDelete@joe - I had the same exact experience you did with going to bed excited, waking up and being instantly disappointed. But, it's snowing right now so I'll take it!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comments. Beggars can’t be choosers. We will take what we can get. Let it snow!
ReplyDeleteLooks like the airport might get some decent snow, at least if I'm seeing the radar the right way. It's still fascinating how it just 'can't get here.' Have a good night, everyone.
ReplyDeleteA good explanation of what happened with the weather forecasting yesterday vs today. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2024/01/12/anatomy-of-a-forecast-model-bust-for-twin-cities-snow
ReplyDeleteThanks for an excellent link/explanation. I shared it with friends.
Delete@Dustball, thanks for the link. The article confirmed my suspicion that dry air robbed us. 14.2
ReplyDeleteThanks for the link, Dustball; and now MSP is up to a whopping 7.0 inches of snowfall this season, so yes, Schnee Meister, 14.2, 14.2, 14.2 most definitely. I'm going to go study that link that Dustball posted.
ReplyDeleteSo .6 inches at MSP? Well, that means the forecast was a total BUST! Everybody across the board from the NWS to Novak and all of the forecasters in between gets a grade of “F” for this one! No Exceptions!
ReplyDeleteYes. And read the link from Dustball. It's a good read. I have a friend who lives in Iowa, and I am so jealous of the snow he got at his place. 14.2............. that's the number we are aiming to stay 'under' this winter season...........
DeleteMSP is now at 7.1............... as we see if we can stay low for the whole snow season.
ReplyDeleteI just have to chime in and commit to this - There is NO CHANCE that we get less than 14.2 inches of snow this winter. NO CHANCE. Put that to bed!
ReplyDeleteBring it!
You all can thank me for the lack of snow this winter. After last year, I had enough and decided to buy a tractor with a cab and snow blower this fall. Haven't had a chance to use it yet...
ReplyDeleteOk. I'm with PWL and feel for you, Dustball! We had so much snow last winter (plus lots of rain)......this is so unbelievable, isn't it? Here's hoping.........
ReplyDeleteWeather models are predicting an inch or less of snow for the metro from now through the end of the month. January is our snowiest month. Go figure. I hope PWL is right, but it’s not looking hopeful. 14.2 continues to look tough to beat this season.
ReplyDeleteThe virtually snowless and crappy winter lingers on and actually thrives the rest of this January with no real additional snowfall and warmer temps that get to or may even exceed 40°,any snow you may have will be gone and you will be left staring at grass again. The snow drought is real, 4 months down 3 months to go!
ReplyDeleteAgreed. 30's next week and 'rain'????? Nashville gets 7.6 inches of snow Sunday/Monday? Crazy world, MSP! PWL, we may have to eat our words re: we can get past 14.2 this season. It's not looking good and as anonymous points out above, a lot of the snow season is already long gone. :+(
DeleteNovak on FB: "Here's a good rule of thumb in weather forecasting. Anytime you are near a snow gradient, BUST potential is usually high. Please keep that in mind as we head thru this 2nd half of winter."
ReplyDeleteI looked at the official weather records for this snow season, beginning with October. The greatest amount of snow the Twin Cities has officially had on the ground at any one time so far this season is 2 inches (October 31)! November recorded no measurable snow cover on any day of the month. December recorded 1 inch of snow cover on December 5 & 31. The snow cover to date for January is 1 inch, which will likely disappear during next week’s warm up. The models are predicting no more than 1 inch of snow now through the first couple days of February. Just food for thought during this abysmal “winter”.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the information, Schnee Meister. That is a real eye opener. With the exception of this past week’s temperatures, this has been one ultra wimpy winter! Despite that, every night when I turn on the news somebody is whining that it’s not Spring yet. They act like it’s been a brutal winter 8 months long. I swear some of the biggest winter wussies are from Minnesota.
ReplyDeleteOk. I have a friend who has a tulip coming up in Farmington, as does one of his friends. Not normal!
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to the warmup to clear up some of this ice and snow! Bring it!
ReplyDeleteFrom Paul Douglas in the Strib today: "New research out of Dartmouth College shows a 5-7% drop in snowpack per decade across Minnesota and the Upper Midwest , due primarily to warming climate. ... Here in MSP 2.4 inches of precipitation has fallen since Dec. 1, almost all of that from heavy rain."
ReplyDeleteModels are trying to spit out a couple inches of snow for the TC (and several inches for Wisconsin again) around January 29. We’ll see, but don’t hold your breath.
ReplyDelete“Below is an excerpt from the NWS discussion this afternoon. Just a precursor of February continuing more of the same (after our abbreviated token chilly weather this past week). This begins a stretch of well- above normal temperatures through the end of the month, along with an extended stretch of cloudy weather similar to our last
ReplyDeletewarm stretch in late December/early January. Conditions will be nearly identical for the next several days, with daytime highs in the mid to upper 30s and overnight lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. The only chance for precipitation this week comes midweek, as two weather systems impact the Midwest Tuesday through
Thursday. The first system continues to trend southeast of the area, with a slight chance of light rain or snow across
southeast Minnesota & western Wisconsin depending on the northern extend of the precip shield. meanwhile the second
system has trended a bit more to the northwest, which brings an increasing chance for light rain or snow Wednesday night into Thursday. Snow chances will be greater during the overnight hours when temperatures dip below freezing, while rain is more likely during the daytime. Looking even farther ahead the warm pattern amplifies around the end of the month, with even warmer temperatures expected to start February.”
One of my favorite (sarcasm added!) comments is the following:
“Snow chances will be greater during the overnight hours when temperatures dip below freezing, while rain is more likely during the daytime.”
What? Are we living in Atlanta?!?! It’s the coldest time of the year in MINNESOTA and we are hoping it’s cold enough at night to get snow instead of rain!!!
Sorry, but living through the warmest, snowless “winter” on record is not sitting well with me! Thanks for listening…
Sorry, the quotes above should have started as follows:
ReplyDelete“This begins a stretch of well- above normal temperatures through the end of the month, along with an extended stretch of cloudy weather similar to our last warm stretch in late December/early January. “
@Joe, I think many of us here feel/share your pain. With a 1 inch snow cover and well above normal temps starting this week, the ground will soon be bare when we should be experiencing our deepest snow cover of the year. The bare ground will enable temps to rise even higher, especially when the sun returns. Here is a link to a Bring Me The News article from yesterday. They have written off this shameful excuse for a winter.
ReplyDeletehttps://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-weather/over-already-a-look-at-minnesotas-wimpy-winter-of-2023-2024-so-far#:~:text=Despite%20last%20week's%20cold%20snap,for%20a%20record%20warm%20winter.&text=We%20surpassed%20the%20midway%20point,despite%20the%20recent%20cold%20weather.
Thanks for all the links above. I am labeling this "Winter 2023-2024: The Winter of No Snow." I think we will easily bust 14.2 with a far lower number. When I look at old photos of winters past with my grandkids, it hurts. And when I see photos of kids playing in the 35" of snow Michigan City, Ind got since Thursday....... ah...... the memories. Welcome to "March in January" this week. At this rate, my grandkid with the May spring allergies may be confronting them in Feb this year. Just unbelievable. Thanks again for the links/excerpts/camaraderie as we mourn this 'winter.'
ReplyDelete7.3 is now the official MSP NOAA snow total since July 1. We may see 50's next week. :+(
ReplyDelete60 degrees in the Twin Cities within the next 10 days is not out of the question. I have no words…
ReplyDeleteWinter 1877-1878 had its last serious contender for the “winter-less” crown during the winter of 1930-31. It looks like the winter of 2023-24 will finally take the crown. Here is an interesting article.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/1877_1878_winter.html#:~:text=Dubbed%20%22the%20Year%20without%20a,average%20temperature%20of%2026.9%20degrees.
Another sad tidbit from Paul Douglas today: "According to the local NWS, if we pick up less than 9.1 inches the rest of the season we'll have the largest season-to-season difference on record. Wow." Now, I wonder if he means 9.1 total or 9.1 on top of our current 7.3. A lot of us on here can't see us going over that 14.2. Thanks for the link above, "Not The Bill." I'm going to go study it right now.
ReplyDeleteOne Winter 1877-1878 record already dethroned.
ReplyDeleteThe average daily temperature in the Twin Cities last month (December 2023) was 34.3℉ — which was about 12 degrees above normal, per the NWS. That's warmer than the warmest December in Twin Cities weather records, which occurred in 1877 with an average temperature of 33.8 degrees.
https://www.axios.com/local/twin-cities/2024/01/03/winter-events-canceled-delayed-warm-winter-weather#
Ian Leonard said last night that the December pattern is redeveloping. He said that means high temperatures in the mid to upper 30’s this week, then 40’s (possibly 50’s) next week and the week after that. Late March has arrived in January with a vengeance.
ReplyDeleteI just went over to Lake of the Isles in Minneapolis. My jaw dropped the entire time I took photos. Skating rink surrounded and flooded with water; a Loppet display set up on the north end that will probably end up sinking as the temps continue to climb; and a sad feeling for my brother's ski school as it attempts to continue serving some 1,000 kids this 'winter.' Climate change + El Niño= something I have never seen in my lifetime. I wonder what my grandkids and great grands will see weatherwise as they grow. I know this is not always going to be the 'norm' but these 'winters' are never normal anymore. Even last year: we could have broken that all time snow record but for several heavy rains. Thanks for listening, fellow snow and winter lovers.
DeleteOh, and I forgot to say thanks Schnee Meister for the update from Ian and to Lee for the link and to all the others on here providing info/ links/ lamenting along with me. I appreciate you all.
ReplyDeleteAnd Bill..... thanks for keeping this going each year. Glad you have snowy vistas out where you live!
ReplyDeleteThanks. It's a pretty sight - out the window!
DeleteModels are showing no snow through at least February 11. Officially the Twin Cities is at 7.3 inches for the season, with about 3 inches of that having fallen on Halloween. As of now 14.2 remains in significant jeopardy of being dethroned this season.
ReplyDeleteMSP reports a temp of 50 today, so that beats the 1931 record 49. Wednesday looks to be a big record-breaker, too. All the rinks in my city are now officially closed for the season. It looks, feels, smells..... just 'is' like March out there. And it's January. I used to believe what Joe says above couldn't be true..... but this is 'the year with no winter.' 14.2, indeed. We will set a new 'low' for sure. Thanks for the models update on 1/27, Joe.
ReplyDeleteModels update: Models showing no snow for the Twin Cities through February 15. Has the Twin Cities ever had a snowless February? It would not surprise me if that happens this year.
ReplyDeleteThis “winter” is like the movie Groundhog Day. Every day feels like the end of October or the beginning of November. Except for the one week in mid-January, it has felt that way, well, since the end of October or the beginning of November. Maybe 60 degrees tomorrow somewhere close to the metro?
ReplyDeleteI am hearing murmurs that temperatures in a couple of weeks might cool off to only 10 to 15 degrees above average, instead of 25 to 30 degrees above average. Can we please just end this nightmare and fast forward to May?
ReplyDeleteWinter is over! Heck, it never even arrived! Stop fretting and just write it off and hope that winter doesn’t pull another Houdini next season.
ReplyDeleteThis site is way too quiet for my liking so I am going to chime in with a few thoughts.
ReplyDelete1. I still stick to my prediction early this winter that there is NO WAY that we break the all-time record for lowest snowfall total for a season.
The atmosphere is showing some signs of changing for the second half of February with snow often happening in March and April and sometimes an overnight burst in May. I am sticking to this.
2. The warmth we had was incredible. We will be telling out grandkids about the winter of 2023-24. Did you know that it was in the 50's on Christmas Day? And we set a whole bunch of warm records? And this was on the heels of an incredibly snowy winter the year before. MN weather - gotta love the variability within the days/weeks/seasons/years.
3. Lots to talk about so BRING IT! What do we see as shaping up as the weather gets "colder" this next week into the following weeks? Anyone seeing signs of some snow coming up? The models are trying to push some things out there, but nothing consistent across the models - but there are things. Things are better than no things!
4. BRING IT! Bring the dialogue and thoughts! Bring the conversation? This is a blog - meant or conversation no matter what. BRING IT!!
What are people seeing for Wednesday evening this week? An inch or two maybe?
ReplyDeleteRight now it’s looking like maybe a whopping inch or two down along the MN/IA border.
DeleteModels are now calling for approximately one inch of snow for the metro between now and the end of February. Batten down the hatches!
ReplyDeleteNWS has posted 1-2" Wednesday night for the metro. I admire your enthusiasm, PWL. "Bring it" yes........ even 1" is something. I sure miss snow. Two inches would be a 2024 'miracle' the way things are going.
ReplyDeleteIt’s nice (and rare) to hear talk of snow for the metro. If the metro receives any accumulating snow tomorrow, enjoy it; it won’t be around long. High temperatures well into the 40’s return next week. My prediction is after tomorrow’s minor snow event, 14.2 will remain in grave jeopardy of being toppled out of first place as the least snowiest Twin Cities winter. After tomorrow, models are not reflecting any additional snow for the Twin Cities through at least the first of March.
ReplyDeleteMy eyes cannot believe it: WWA for the metro and 2-4" tonight? Oh, please, keep it that way. PWL, keep dancing.
ReplyDeleteThis almost deserves a new thread, but I don't want to jinx anything!
ReplyDeleteNWS is saying 3"-5" in NE suburbs tonight, wow!
ReplyDeleteIt sure is beautiful to see snow.
ReplyDeleteI agree, WeatherGeek! I pray next season redeems itself!!
Delete
ReplyDeleteThis is awesome. To those of you that say that, "Even when the snow does happen around the Twin Cities, we are in the donut hole", that did not happen this time. Just make a note of that.
BRING IT! I love the banding that is happening in some areas. Surprising that the banding is happening noticeably more north than the models were indicating. It is beautiful!!
BRING IT! #recordwillstand
Storm moved north from recent forecasts and then it is pumping out snow in north metro.
DeleteWow it’s coming down hard yet again. I just shoveled 2+” in SE Anoka County and it’s all white again. Loving this.
ReplyDeleteSorry I didn't put up a new thread, this winter has made me forget about looking for snow as the days were so warm. Its great to see the snow coming down and it looks like we could end up with a few inches.
ReplyDeleteHope there is one or two left this year!
It is coming down in the west metro(GV)really hard right now! It took till February 14 for a decent event!
ReplyDeleteUnless my eyes deceive me: MSP got a RECORD 6.9 inches of snow; the new snow total for MSP since 7/1 = 14.2. RIGHT ON THE NOSE of the other 14.2 because wasn't that our magic number? Chan got 6.8. Wow! Love it.
ReplyDeletePWL was right; no way we break that low record. I just snow blew my larger snowstorm of the year. Glad I got home from WI at 3 pm yesterday and could enjoy the snow from home.
ReplyDeleteI'm happy to finally see snow! A beautiful winter wonderland this morning!
ReplyDeleteGood snowy morning, All! I am big enough to admit when I was wrong. Fortunately, the models were very wrong, and Mom Nature finally did us Twin Cities winter fans a solid! Better late than never. Nobody is more excited about the snow than I am! Whether we break the low snowfall record or not makes no matter to me at this point. While last night's snow was great, the reality is this winter has been a disaster for anyone that enjoys winter. Except for 10 or so cold days in mid-January and the snow last night, winter has not shown up this season. I gauge a winter on its quality, of which snow totals are definitely a large factor, but more so is continuous snow cover that can be enjoyed throughout the winter season, along with sufficiently cold temperatures. These are factors that have not existed this winter. I love winter and all of its beauty, and I enjoy winter sports too. I grew up in a place where it sometimes does not snow for two years. When it does snow the landscape is transformed and it is beautiful and exciting, but sadly it is very short-lived as it quickly melts away within a day or two. This winter we (outside of going to a ski area like Buck Hill) have not had the opportunity to ski, skate, tube, go for a stroll across a snow-covered landscape or on snowy afternoons, etc. I will enjoy the gorgeous snow outside of my window this morning for as long as I can. Unfortunately, keeping with the heat theme of this winter I know we will be looking at bare brown ground again very soon, as temperatures well into the 40's return next week. I feel like we live in Memphis instead of Minneapolis. I pray La Nina brings winter back in a big way next season! Enjoy the snow!
ReplyDeleteWell said; and we are currently tied with the 14.2. My lil bro has a ski/snowboard school, and it's been a very tough 'winter' for him. I fear my grandkids/great grands will never know what a real 'winter' around here is as they grow. It's a beautiful morning for we who love snow/winter. And tonight it will be 'cold' compared to the past and what's coming as we warm up again. And PWL yes, good job saying 'no way' we'd stay below the 14.2. Now that we are tied, there is hope for nudging up a bit. Gorgeous snow.............
DeleteThat was fun! I'm now enjoying the snow blowing off the trees and overhead wires. The sun is higher too so melting is already happening on shoveled surfaces. I hope we get another storm (or 8!). Keep up the dancing PWL.
ReplyDeleteSo when or who will be declaring Winter is over!
ReplyDeleteThis was officially the warmest meteorological winter (December-February) on record for the Twin Cities (average temp 2023-2024: 29.9 degrees. The previous warmest meteorological winter was 1877-1878, which posted an average temperature of 29 degrees). Also, the Twin Cities missed tying for the least-snowiest meteorological winter by .1 inches (2023-2024: 14.3 inches vs. 1877-1878: 14.2 inches). The 1877-1878 winter is known as "The Year Without A Winter". The NWS has dubbed the 2023-2024 winter as "The Lost Winter". International Falls, Rochester and St. Cloud also had their warmest meteorological winters with average temps of 21.2, 27.8 and 27.2, respectively. Duluth had its second warmest meteorological winter, posting an average temperature of 24.7 degrees. As for declaring winter over, as far as I am concerned it never even arrived. With the exception of 10 days or so in mid-January, it has been like Groundhog Day in that essentially it has continuously been early/mid-November ever since...well, last early/mid-November.
ReplyDeleteJust unbelievable (this is Bill)
DeleteGuys…. Have you seen some of the crazy snow totals some model at timeanddate is pushing out for the last week or so this month?? Do we laugh or hope?
ReplyDeleteThe last six runs of the GFS seems to be pretty consistent on bringing something to the middle of MN March 24th/25th.
DeleteThanks, Dustball. It should would be 'something else' if we get walloped. PWL would be dancing like crazy! Fingers crossed. Thanks again.
DeleteI LOVE IT when I see anything in orange or even close to orange on the models!! The orange - on several models - is consistently showing up run after run for late next weekend into early next week. Bring it!!
ReplyDeleteI am doing the "Keep it Orange" dance!! C'mon, baby. Bring it!!!!
What are you talking about? Orange and yellow on a map usually depict heavy rain/thunderstorms
DeleteAfter a long dull winter it sure looks like something may be up next weekend. The GFS has remain pretty stable and now the Euro is starting to show more snow Sunday also. They are off on totals, but the trend is sure interesting. Curious what Novak says.
ReplyDeleteHe's been quiet this past weekend, but yes, I'll be checking him on FB for sure. Keep dancing, PWL. We may have to notify Bill that we could actually use a new strand for what we hope is some decent snow.
DeleteNWS Monday morning discussion:
ReplyDeleteHere`s a summary: It appears likely that a broad area of snow
will impact the Upper Midwest on Thursday & Thursday night,
with increasing confidence for a few inches of accumulation
despite recent warmth and thawed ground. Specifics with regards
to timing, amounts, placement, intensity, and travel impacts
will come into greater detail as additional guidance becomes
available. If you`re put away your snow shovel or winter gear
it`s not too late to get it back out! You have a few days to
prepare.
Beyond Thursday, our attention turns to next weekend (and early
next week). Guidance suggests a deep trough will dig into the
western CONUs with several shortwaves embedded within the broad
longwave trough. There is a significant amount of uncertainty
with respect to the evolution of this period, but there is
remarkable consistency with the signal for potential of a few
waves of precipitation across the Midwest. The first window is
Saturday into Sunday as a shortwave lifts out of the Rockies and
into the Plains. NBM PoPs are beginning to increase for this
upcoming weekend in response to the stormy signal.
Unfortunately, P-type issues are likely given the potentially
dynamic nature of this system. What`s important is not any one
specific model run, but the consistency in the signal for a
storm. This should support a greater potential for beneficial
precipitation across the region as we end March.
Thanks for the info/updates, Jason. I messaged Bill on FB to say we appreciate him and to ask for a new thread...... with some snazzy title during 'the year with no winter' as I refer to it. Let it snow...... please, please, please.
ReplyDeleteNovak posted this early today on FB: Quote: "We have an unusually ACTIVE early Spring weather pattern ahead. Make sure you're following Novak Weather for the latest updates. The first snow maker will arrive on Thursday with several more wintry systems to follow. Spread the word & stay tuned!"
ReplyDeletePaul Douglas on Twitter says the ECMWF puts out 2-3" of liquid by next Wednesday. Fingers crossed for a big snow! (But also apologies for who are tying to get out of town for spring break, which this year includes my teen.)
ReplyDelete