Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Trick or Treat
The "s word" is back in the forecast, though it seems unlikely to amount to any significance. But for snow lovers who suffered through last winter, it offers hope.
Indeed! Dance, PWL. Can't wait to see how this winter turns out. It's GOTTA be better than last year snow-wise. Thanks again, Bill. We appreciate this blog so much.
Amounts are “inching” up with weather.com saying 3-5 inches! Short term models all showing multiple inches. Novak starting to talk snow on Facebook! Let’s goooooo!!
Waking up to a Winter Weather Advisory even for the metro. This is bringing back memories of 1991, yes it is. My grandkid / great grands aren't prepared for THIS today. 70's yesterday and many inches of snow today. Your dancing has certainly paid off as we start the new season, PWL. I can't wait to see what we get.
We get a lot of snow predictions several days out but how fun would it be to get snow predictions the day OF the event?? Especially as this is such a surprise?
Hmmmm. It's sure a lot of rain. I'll say 2-3" of white snow in the metro. I can't wait for the snow globe effect when it starts pouring snow after the transition from the heavy rain right now. I always lament with 'If it were colder'...... we have SO much rain in the forecast right through early next week......... 'if it were colder' PWL, we would have piles of snow. So I'll say 2-3" white stuff in the metro with more north. Novak hasn't posted yet this morning on his FB.....
Sorry, PWL was late to to your post. Was awesome to have snow back for Halloween no less though I’m not a fan of snow before cleaning the yard of leaves so I’m glad we have a few weeks of tame/mild weather so the last of the leaves come down. So how about we make a season prediction of snowfall…make a prediction for your city/backyard as well as the airport and let’s see which city delivers the most this year and who comes close to the MSP total, season will be 10/31 thru 4/30.
Happy Snow Season, Everyone! It was nice picking up 4.3 inches on Halloween. I am not a fan of this weather pattern we have had since early September. Way too warm for my liking. Here’s hoping winter returns this season with gusto!
Well I see not much interest in my prediction game but I will share mine. Golden Valley 71” MSP Airport 62” Oh by the way, the middle of next week there’s something brewing and looking interesting for us winter enthusiasts! Get out and clean up your leaves while it’s still relatively mild because I have a feeling in about 7 days Old Man Winter will be knocking on our door step!
I am reading more and more that it’s becoming unlikely La Niña develops this season. The Euro is predicting a very warm (not as severely hot as last season) winter for the entire continental U.S. and southern Canada. I pray they are wrong. What is everyone on this site hearing?
Well, 'back when I was a child' we would have woken up to a nice foot or so of snow this morning...... over an inch of liquid fell in my area. Luckily, the temps are going down after today. I don't have any guesses for snow totals, but I am hoping we get way more than last 'winter.' Let is SNOW.
Oops: Let it SNOW (v let 'is')....... ah, texting. The weather pattern looks COLD, and it looks more ACTIVE on some sites, so here's to no more warmth till spring so that we can start plowing and shoveling and doing winter activities. :+)
Hello there snowlovers I know we have been teased with some snow and dustings and that Halloween surprise but we really haven’t had anything significant to talk about, but I think that changes early next week. I’m looking at the Monday/Tuesday timeframe for a storm system but it will have warmed out ahead of over weekend to near or exceed 40° so their maybe precipitation issues…so it won’t be all snow could be a rain to snow scenario or a mixed bag event, anyhow that will all get ironed out over time but at least in my opinion there will be a storm to track, time will tell.
NWS sees the possibility as well, let’s see if it comes to fruition:
Friday through Monday...Southerly flow returns on Friday and will persist through the weekend, allowing temperatures to potentially reach the 40s by Sunday. Some long range models are hinting at a potential system developing out of the Rockies early next week, but this will likely be in flux depending on how the northwest flow aloft and our series of clippers to the north play out throughout the remainder of the week.
Good to hear/see what's up from you guys. Today I am learning about 'snow squalls' including seeing them outlined in purple on NWS maps. Hoping for snow and more snow, but so far...... I've only been wishing the past rain events could have been snow. Thanks for the updates.
Verrrrrry interesting, this 'GenCast' from 'GoogleDeepMind'...... but if it is relying solely on X number of years of data, as I say below, the warming/climate changes may throw it all off. History and averages aren't meaning much as we get warmer and warmer. But I'm no scientist, which shows in what I say, and I thank you for sharing this interesting link/read.
Today P. Douglas mentioned that climatologist Mark Seeley noted, "...December is one of our fastest warming months. We've warmed 8 degrees in the last forty years, closer to 10 up north." This reaffirms that I'm not 'hallucinating' nor remembering falsely that it was colder and thus rain like we had at Halloween (though that is Oct, of course) could be snow in my youth. At least we go back to cold this week after a very warm weekend..... but not much snow is on the horizon. Bummer.
Yes, it 'snowed' but most of it was a slush and total rain. To quote: "The 1.26 inches of precipitation measured at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was the largest reported on any Halloween in over 150 years of record.Nov 1, 2024".... had it ALL been TRUE snow like 40 years ago with 8 degrees colder temp, it would have been a significant snow total. But it was too warm, sadly.
I was wondering/musing if we could 'measure winters' by the number of threads found here, historically........ :+) Stay safe out there today, snow lovers, with the slipping and sliding in the forecast.
Don't look now, but the Thursday system is something to watch. It is not coming from the southwest which tends to bring our large systems. This one is coming from the west/northwest, but it have some nice snowmaking potential - overriding some colder air coming in early this week and will tap into some moisture from the south. Models are starting to show it as well as the most recent NWS forecast discussion. Novak had a "watch closely" tag on this system. This one could overperform. Let's go! Already dancing!!!!
The above comment was me - sent again as Plymouth Weather Lover. You get a two for one posting!!
Don't look now, but the Thursday system is something to watch. It is not coming from the southwest which tends to bring our large systems. This one is coming from the west/northwest, but it have some nice snowmaking potential - overriding some colder air coming in early this week and will tap into some moisture from the south. Models are starting to show it as well as the most recent NWS forecast discussion. Novak had a "watch closely" tag on this system. This one could overperform. Let's go! Already dancing!!!!
I could tell that was you by the 'Bring it' and 'Already dancing." And yes, I saw Novak's hints on FB at something could come our way this Thursday. "Watch closely".......Oh, let's hope!!!!!
We're back, baby (thanks, Bill!) Happy 2024-2025 snow season. Bring it!
ReplyDeleteIndeed! Dance, PWL. Can't wait to see how this winter turns out. It's GOTTA be better than last year snow-wise. Thanks again, Bill. We appreciate this blog so much.
DeleteHERE. WE. GO!!!! Bring it!
ReplyDeleteAmounts are “inching” up with weather.com saying 3-5 inches! Short term models all showing multiple inches. Novak starting to talk snow on Facebook! Let’s goooooo!!
Doing the Halloween Snow Dance!!
BRING IT!!!
Waking up to a Winter Weather Advisory even for the metro. This is bringing back memories of 1991, yes it is. My grandkid / great grands aren't prepared for THIS today. 70's yesterday and many inches of snow today. Your dancing has certainly paid off as we start the new season, PWL. I can't wait to see what we get.
ReplyDeleteWe get a lot of snow predictions several days out but how fun would it be to get snow predictions the day OF the event?? Especially as this is such a surprise?
ReplyDeleteI say 5 inches in Plymouth. 3 at the airport.
Make yours. BRING IT!!!
Hmmmm. It's sure a lot of rain. I'll say 2-3" of white snow in the metro. I can't wait for the snow globe effect when it starts pouring snow after the transition from the heavy rain right now. I always lament with 'If it were colder'...... we have SO much rain in the forecast right through early next week......... 'if it were colder' PWL, we would have piles of snow. So I'll say 2-3" white stuff in the metro with more north. Novak hasn't posted yet this morning on his FB.....
DeleteSorry, PWL was late to to your post. Was awesome to have snow back for Halloween no less though I’m not a fan of snow before cleaning the yard of leaves so I’m glad we have a few weeks of tame/mild weather so the last of the leaves come down.
ReplyDeleteSo how about we make a season prediction of snowfall…make a prediction for your city/backyard as well as the airport and let’s see which city delivers the most this year and who comes close to the MSP total, season will be 10/31 thru 4/30.
Officially only .2 at MSP on Halloween
DeleteHappy Snow Season, Everyone! It was nice picking up 4.3 inches on Halloween. I am not a fan of this weather pattern we have had since early September. Way too warm for my liking. Here’s hoping winter returns this season with gusto!
ReplyDeleteWell I see not much interest in my prediction game but I will share mine.
ReplyDeleteGolden Valley 71”
MSP Airport 62”
Oh by the way, the middle of next week there’s something brewing and looking interesting for us winter enthusiasts! Get out and clean up your leaves while it’s still relatively mild because I have a feeling in about 7 days Old Man Winter will be knocking on our door step!
Thanks for starting this prediction idea. Love it!! I missed your first post - thanks for posting again.
ReplyDeletePlymouth - 75
MSP - 84
Let’s get going now. Let’s see it happen! Let’s dance. Let’s BRING IT!!
Oh dang, you guys are predicting some pretty healthy snow totals for the season - love it! I'm hearing/watching next weeks' system, too!
ReplyDeleteI am reading more and more that it’s becoming unlikely La Niña develops this season. The Euro is predicting a very warm (not as severely hot as last season) winter for the entire continental U.S. and southern Canada. I pray they are wrong. What is everyone on this site hearing?
ReplyDeleteWell, 'back when I was a child' we would have woken up to a nice foot or so of snow this morning...... over an inch of liquid fell in my area. Luckily, the temps are going down after today. I don't have any guesses for snow totals, but I am hoping we get way more than last 'winter.' Let is SNOW.
ReplyDeleteOops: Let it SNOW (v let 'is')....... ah, texting. The weather pattern looks COLD, and it looks more ACTIVE on some sites, so here's to no more warmth till spring so that we can start plowing and shoveling and doing winter activities. :+)
DeleteHello there snowlovers I know we have been teased with some snow and dustings and that Halloween surprise but we really haven’t had anything significant to talk about, but I think that changes early next week. I’m looking at the Monday/Tuesday timeframe for a storm system but it will have warmed out ahead of over weekend to near or exceed 40° so their maybe precipitation issues…so it won’t be all snow could be a rain to snow scenario or a mixed bag event, anyhow that will all get ironed out over time but at least in my opinion there will be a storm to track, time will tell.
ReplyDeleteNWS sees the possibility as well, let’s see if it comes to fruition:
DeleteFriday through Monday...Southerly flow returns on Friday and
will persist through the weekend, allowing temperatures to
potentially reach the 40s by Sunday. Some long range models are
hinting at a potential system developing out of the Rockies
early next week, but this will likely be in flux depending on
how the northwest flow aloft and our series of clippers to the
north play out throughout the remainder of the week.
Good to hear/see what's up from you guys. Today I am learning about 'snow squalls' including seeing them outlined in purple on NWS maps. Hoping for snow and more snow, but so far...... I've only been wishing the past rain events could have been snow. Thanks for the updates.
ReplyDeleteHello everyone! Happy end of year. Saw this and thought of this group.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.technologyreview.com/2024/12/04/1107892/google-deepminds-new-ai-model-is-the-best-yet-at-weather-forecasting/
Verrrrrry interesting, this 'GenCast' from 'GoogleDeepMind'...... but if it is relying solely on X number of years of data, as I say below, the warming/climate changes may throw it all off. History and averages aren't meaning much as we get warmer and warmer. But I'm no scientist, which shows in what I say, and I thank you for sharing this interesting link/read.
DeleteFrom Nature:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9
This is just a site for shopping?!?
DeleteToday P. Douglas mentioned that climatologist Mark Seeley noted, "...December is one of our fastest warming months. We've warmed 8 degrees in the last forty years, closer to 10 up north." This reaffirms that I'm not 'hallucinating' nor remembering falsely that it was colder and thus rain like we had at Halloween (though that is Oct, of course) could be snow in my youth. At least we go back to cold this week after a very warm weekend..... but not much snow is on the horizon. Bummer.
ReplyDeleteIt snowed this Halloween!
DeleteYes, it 'snowed' but most of it was a slush and total rain. To quote: "The 1.26 inches of precipitation measured at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was the largest reported on any Halloween in over 150 years of record.Nov 1, 2024".... had it ALL been TRUE snow like 40 years ago with 8 degrees colder temp, it would have been a significant snow total. But it was too warm, sadly.
Deletethanks for keeping this going, I read it almost daily in the winter and really appreciate everyone's input.
ReplyDeleteI was wondering/musing if we could 'measure winters' by the number of threads found here, historically........ :+) Stay safe out there today, snow lovers, with the slipping and sliding in the forecast.
ReplyDeleteDon't look now, but the Thursday system is something to watch. It is not coming from the southwest which tends to bring our large systems. This one is coming from the west/northwest, but it have some nice snowmaking potential - overriding some colder air coming in early this week and will tap into some moisture from the south. Models are starting to show it as well as the most recent NWS forecast discussion. Novak had a "watch closely" tag on this system. This one could overperform. Let's go! Already dancing!!!!
ReplyDeleteBring it!
The above comment was me - sent again as Plymouth Weather Lover. You get a two for one posting!!
ReplyDeleteDon't look now, but the Thursday system is something to watch. It is not coming from the southwest which tends to bring our large systems. This one is coming from the west/northwest, but it have some nice snowmaking potential - overriding some colder air coming in early this week and will tap into some moisture from the south. Models are starting to show it as well as the most recent NWS forecast discussion. Novak had a "watch closely" tag on this system. This one could overperform. Let's go! Already dancing!!!!
Bring it!
I could tell that was you by the 'Bring it' and 'Already dancing." And yes, I saw Novak's hints on FB at something could come our way this Thursday. "Watch closely".......Oh, let's hope!!!!!
Delete