Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
Monday, December 16, 2024
Real Snow for Thursday?
The eyes of snow lovers are focused on Thursday, when a possibly significant snow may fall. Could this be the snow that sticks around for a certain notable day?
Thanks for the new thread. Here's HOPING for some decent snow. If we can squeeze some out in the metro, hopefully it won't melt for a while, either. Novak is giving me hope over on FB. Thanks again, Bill.
Okay, to see how accurate they are: NWS is putting out a forecast as of 4:53 p.m. today, Monday, calling for up to 1.5" of snow tomorrow afternoon and night; then Wednesday night 1 to 2" and then Thursday 2-4". That's for the MSP area/my west of Mpls zip code. My dad would say, 'I'll believe it when I see it,' but it sounds awesome to me. What do the rest of you see with your computer models?
@WeatherGeek…unfortunately the NWS missed with today’s snow forecast. They are calling for 3-5 inches for Thursday. Hoping they don’t miss that one too. That’s our last chance for a White Christmas this year.
Yeah, today so far is a bummer, Schnee Meister, not that there was much of a chance of more than 'nuisance' snow. Novak just put out a FB post that shows mostly 3-5" for the metro starting midnight Th/through Th..... good to hear from you and hope PWL is dancing to bring us some snow and also hoping Novak's numbers become reality.
This storm has lots of potential. The jet streak is in place. Some moisture coming in from the south. Cold air in place. Love it. Bring it.
The only fly in the ointment is that some models are pushing this a little bit north. The 00 NAM has the heavy band just north of us. The HRRR has it close to Duluth. I trust Novak. He sees it over the cities.
Hey Tim, I was just reading the same thing from the NWS morning discussion. They are still uncertain about how much snow will fall in the TC. They are even talking about the dry slot possibly coming through the TC. Confidence is quite high central MN will be the winners with possibly the TC as a whole receiving little snow at all. I sure hope Novak’s forecast is right.
Thanks for the (sad) updates Tim and Joe. I hope we don't get a dry slot or that it all nudges north, either. Hoping for snow in the metro................
This is why I refrain from getting too excited anymore when several inches of snow are predicted for the TC several days in advance. Often, not always, something goes awry and we receive less, sometimes a lot less, than what had been predicted for several days. I know the NWS has had a pretty bad track record the past couple of years accurately predicting snow for the metro even a day or two before the event. Keeping my fingers crossed the snow won't take a last minute detour and leave the metro high and dry. It's our last chance for a white Christmas. Well, we will know one way or the other tomorrow.
Within the past hour Novak released a comment on his Facebook page regarding tomorrow's snow. He's holding firm with 3-6 inches for most of the metro, possibly a little higher for the northern metro.
You are right, Joe! The totals keep increasing for some parts of the metro...... but gone are the days/years when forecasters got grades and lots of people weighed in w/computer models, etc. here on the blog. Maybe people are afraid to jinx it. The weather changes are so noticeable and winters are so different now........ my grandkid's west metro school district is 'watching' and the teacher sent an email saying it "might" be an elearning day tomorrow..... but it's all 'quiet' everywhere in anticipation: again, 'Will it hold together?' I sure hope so. BRING IT as PWL says and let is SNOW as Schnee Meister says.
I love it when Mr Novak says, "My thoughts have not changed and I'm sticking to my guns." If we get 5-7" in the metro when all the totals are in tonight, it's a good start. Let it now snow the rest of this season. And not melt, yet.
I agree! Novak rules! This is why I hitch my wagon to his forecasts. He's thorough, knowledgeable and experienced...unlike many of the tv meteorologists and some NWS meteorologists. The NWS scare of a dry slot yesterday morning was in stark contrast to Novak's position of "sticking to his guns".
I don't like the rumblings of a huge "heat wave" occurring, per NWS, starting later next week with temperatures 20 degrees above average. Can't we just have and enjoy winter in Minnesota for a change??
Yeah, snows seemed to be 'around us'.. but both Chan and NWS posted 5 inch totals so not too shabby. What is shabby is seeing 'rain' in next week's forecast. I sure hope that changes. Until the next decent snowfall.................
Nice performing clipper. Nice job again, Novak! Let's get that horrible "R" word out of the forecast for late next week and keep the warmup to a minimum. Happy Holidays, Everyone! Let it Snow! Let it Snow! Let it Snow!
How dismal to get all this rain. And yes, PWL, hope you are all having a safe and happy holiday season. When this weather turns more 'normal' again, will we get some nice snow? Here's hoping..........
Wow, a rainy, foggy late December day at 40 degrees. Good-bye what little snowpack we had. Yet another winter to drop into the crapper? Time will tell…
Hi All! Welcome to what we all hope will be an exciting season on this site. Sadly though (once again) things aren’t looking too promising here at the end of December already. We might be able to salvage some ice fishing out of this season. It’s looking relatively cold for the first 2, possibly 3?, weeks of January. As for snow, at this time it’s not looking good. Sure hope that changes. Despite the forecasts all year long that La Niña was going to form, it hasn’t. The cold and snowy forecasts based on La Niña are now out the window.
I was thinking the same thing, PWL. I have been watching that snow donut on the models the past several days. I am not seeing any hope for snow for the metro for at least the first half of January. What a waste of good cold air.
So quiet on here this season. I have been looking ahead searching for snow. No snow in sight through at least the third week of January. Does anyone know the record for the most snowless January in the Twin Cities?
As DJ Kayser says at the Strib P Douglas column today: "Raise your hand if you're tired of seeing no snow on the ground. Only 8.1 inches of snow has fallen at MSP airport this winter....."
I believe almost all of that 8.1 inches fell during one snowfall. The predictions of El Nina and above average snowfall so far have fallen flat on its face.
as a winter enthusiast and avid snowboarder. these snowless winters are a real bummer! I greatly appreciate the hard working snowmaking teams at the resorts.
I hear you and agree. A relative has a ski/snowboard school that travels MN, and last year/this year have been challenging. Thank goodness for snowmaking, most definitely..... last year it was too warm one weekend to even make snow, and the trips had to be cancelled. Here's hoping this cold can stay a while. And snow!
Looks like up north will be the winners with this clipper (3-5 inches). An inch or so for the metro, then highs in the mid to upper 30’s Thursday and Friday before another (snowless? Arctic front) the end of next week. Will our meager snow cover once again be erased like what happened at Christmas? Models are showing only up to two inches for the metro through the end of January. So far this month MSP has recorded only .8 inches. MSP in January 2005 recorded only 2.8 inches, which I believe is the lowest January snow total recorded?
Thanks for the info. The STRIB had an interesting article/'machine' a day or two ago where a person can put in the year they were born and then see what the climate was like that year compared to now. Lots of changes, most definitely. Let's see what we get today/tonight. I will put the link, but I don't know if a paywall will stop folks from trying it out. https://www.startribune.com/how-does-2024s-weather-compare-with-your-childhood/601202878
From the Strib weather column today: "By DJ Kayser, filling in for Douglas:
Well, at least the ground isn’t brown anymore! As of 6 a.m. Sunday, 0.6 inches of snow had fallen through Saturday night at MSP, bringing us to a whopping 9.5 inches of snow so far this snow season.
Last winter we had only 7 inches through Jan. 12. So at least we can say we’re ahead of last winter! There have been recent years worse than this: The winter of 2004-05 only saw 4.4 inches by this point in the season, with 4.5 inches in 2006-07 and 5.3 inches in 2002-03."
So last winter, with an exception or two, was hot and dry. This winter so far is cold and dry. No sign of snow through the first of February. Perhaps it’s the cynic in me, but I will not be surprised that when we finally start getting moisture around the metro again we will also get warm temperatures so it will rain. Another busted winter snow-wise? I hope the super snowy winter two years ago wasn’t a curse going forward for us snow fans.
It looks like we are going to emerge from the deep freeze. That’s good, but now it appears we are still going to be snowless at least into the second week of February. Last season’s mantra of 14.2 appears to be appropriate again…unfortunately.
Yeah, I have a FB friend who posted glorious photos of his kids making snow angels and sliding down hills and making snowmen in inches upon inches of snow in Mississippi. Unbelievable. I think Paul D. noted that we are something like 17 inches behind our average snow total for this time of year. I miss snow so much like many here on the blog.
Well, the TC has very little snowcover, as we all know. Novak is calling for at least three days in the 40’s next week. Say good-bye to our meager snowcover. This time next week it will look and feel like early November. I am hearing there is no chance of snow for the TC through at least the first half of February. Unbelievable!! 14.2 is alive and well.
That is so sad to hear, but I thank you for the update. I'm looking at photos of snow on the beaches of Pensacola yesterday. Un-be-lievable inDEED!!! Thanks again for the dismal forecast for we who love snow.
Yeah, I'm with Tim. Novak posted this on FB even though I don't see much of anything on outlooks but temps so high during the day that we could get rain. But Novak said: "The first week of FEB (1st - 7th) is going to be interesting as we have a near perfect set-up for a couple of Winter Storms. Stay tuned." I hope he is right, including for the metro area.
Multiple days in the low to mid 40’s in the TC this week. Our meager snowcover will melt away. It will look like late October here by the end of the week. Yet another pathetic winter….
Really looking forward to a warm-up. The temperatures the last few weeks have stunk. If there isn't any snow, then be warm. If it's going to snow then those temps are fine.
Timeanddate is putting out some ridiculously funny computer runs of many inches of snow in the MSP area Feb 1 and Feb 5-9...... it just makes me laugh. By morning it will all be 'gone' from those predictions. But they sure look pretty right now. Oh, how I wish. Lots and lots of snow.
I noticed that too. No surprise here! Novak and others were talking about things becoming very active and snowy by the end of January or the first of February. Now I hear that type of chatter has moved to maybe mid-February. Let’s face it, winter really starts losing its grip around the second week of March in the TC. The best we can hope for is a month of good snow, assuming it materializes at all. This winter is our second in a row to go kaput (except for the ice fishing folks this season). Will we go for a three-peat next season?
As Paul D said in today's local paper, regarding models and snow: "...I'm not holding my breath. It doesn't snow around here anymore." So, so sad. Let's start praying for next year, right?
Novak said this evening the Twin Cities will have several opportunities for wintry weather in February. I have heard that from absolutely no other source. I know last year Novak called one or two snowstorms that nobody else saw, so I hope he is on to something again. The Twin Cities is sitting at 9.8 inches of seasonal snowfall as of today. Seven of those inches fell the week before Christmas. Our January snowfall is only 1.7 inches above our July snowfall! Just pathetic!!
Thanks for the new thread. Here's HOPING for some decent snow. If we can squeeze some out in the metro, hopefully it won't melt for a while, either. Novak is giving me hope over on FB. Thanks again, Bill.
ReplyDeleteOkay, to see how accurate they are: NWS is putting out a forecast as of 4:53 p.m. today, Monday, calling for up to 1.5" of snow tomorrow afternoon and night; then Wednesday night 1 to 2" and then Thursday 2-4". That's for the MSP area/my west of Mpls zip code. My dad would say, 'I'll believe it when I see it,' but it sounds awesome to me. What do the rest of you see with your computer models?
ReplyDelete@WeatherGeek…unfortunately the NWS missed with today’s snow forecast. They are calling for 3-5 inches for Thursday. Hoping they don’t miss that one too. That’s our last chance for a White Christmas this year.
ReplyDeleteYeah, today so far is a bummer, Schnee Meister, not that there was much of a chance of more than 'nuisance' snow. Novak just put out a FB post that shows mostly 3-5" for the metro starting midnight Th/through Th..... good to hear from you and hope PWL is dancing to bring us some snow and also hoping Novak's numbers become reality.
DeleteThis storm has lots of potential. The jet streak is in place. Some moisture coming in from the south. Cold air in place. Love it. Bring it.
ReplyDeleteThe only fly in the ointment is that some models are pushing this a little bit north. The 00 NAM has the heavy band just north of us. The HRRR has it close to Duluth. I trust Novak. He sees it over the cities.
So…….Bring it. Dancing. Bring it. Dancing.
Let’s hear from others. Bring that!!
Oh boy, are the Twin Cities about to get shafted? Appears now any real accumulations tomorrow (3 inches plus) will occur north of the TC?
ReplyDeleteHey Tim, I was just reading the same thing from the NWS morning discussion. They are still uncertain about how much snow will fall in the TC. They are even talking about the dry slot possibly coming through the TC. Confidence is quite high central MN will be the winners with possibly the TC as a whole receiving little snow at all. I sure hope Novak’s forecast is right.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the (sad) updates Tim and Joe. I hope we don't get a dry slot or that it all nudges north, either. Hoping for snow in the metro................
DeleteThis is why I refrain from getting too excited anymore when several inches of snow are predicted for the TC several days in advance. Often, not always, something goes awry and we receive less, sometimes a lot less, than what had been predicted for several days. I know the NWS has had a pretty bad track record the past couple of years accurately predicting snow for the metro even a day or two before the event. Keeping my fingers crossed the snow won't take a last minute detour and leave the metro high and dry. It's our last chance for a white Christmas. Well, we will know one way or the other tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteEven if it does snow the 8-14 day forecast will likely take care of a lot of any snow we do have.
DeleteWithin the past hour Novak released a comment on his Facebook page regarding tomorrow's snow. He's holding firm with 3-6 inches for most of the metro, possibly a little higher for the northern metro.
ReplyDeleteWinter Storm Warning for the Twin Cities just now - 5"-7" as guidance is showing the heaviest snow band shifting south. Hope this validates!
ReplyDeleteLet’s go! My dancing is working! Bring it. Let’s have this thing overachieve. Doing the overachiever dance!!!
ReplyDeleteBring it!
Oh YEAH: Winter Storm Warning yaaaaaaas!!!!
ReplyDeleteSweet!! Let it SNOW!! Let it SNOW!!
ReplyDeleteIt seems pretty quiet on here, as compared to usual, giving this is the eve of a pending decent snowfall for the metro.
ReplyDeleteYou are right, Joe! The totals keep increasing for some parts of the metro...... but gone are the days/years when forecasters got grades and lots of people weighed in w/computer models, etc. here on the blog. Maybe people are afraid to jinx it. The weather changes are so noticeable and winters are so different now........ my grandkid's west metro school district is 'watching' and the teacher sent an email saying it "might" be an elearning day tomorrow..... but it's all 'quiet' everywhere in anticipation: again, 'Will it hold together?' I sure hope so. BRING IT as PWL says and let is SNOW as Schnee Meister says.
DeleteBring it!!!!
ReplyDeleteI love it when Mr Novak says, "My thoughts have not changed and I'm sticking to my guns." If we get 5-7" in the metro when all the totals are in tonight, it's a good start. Let it now snow the rest of this season. And not melt, yet.
ReplyDeleteI agree! Novak rules! This is why I hitch my wagon to his forecasts. He's thorough, knowledgeable and experienced...unlike many of the tv meteorologists and some NWS meteorologists. The NWS scare of a dry slot yesterday morning was in stark contrast to Novak's position of "sticking to his guns".
ReplyDeleteI don't like the rumblings of a huge "heat wave" occurring, per NWS, starting later next week with temperatures 20 degrees above average. Can't we just have and enjoy winter in Minnesota for a change??
I agree with you 100%, Tim.
DeleteAll the talk about heavier snow amounts north of 94 it sure appears the heavier amounts are mostly south of 94?
ReplyDeleteThe snow has definitely stayed just south of the metro all afternoon. Too bad. I was hoping another inch or two would fall later today.
ReplyDeleteYeah, snows seemed to be 'around us'.. but both Chan and NWS posted 5 inch totals so not too shabby. What is shabby is seeing 'rain' in next week's forecast. I sure hope that changes. Until the next decent snowfall.................
ReplyDeleteWell it’s nice to see everyone again! Let’s hope for a winter to remember
ReplyDelete6.6 final number at Chan and 5.5 at MSP airport for snow totals from the clipper. Nice.
ReplyDeleteNice performing clipper. Nice job again, Novak! Let's get that horrible "R" word out of the forecast for late next week and keep the warmup to a minimum. Happy Holidays, Everyone! Let it Snow! Let it Snow! Let it Snow!
ReplyDeleteMerry Christmas, Weather Fanatic Friends!!
ReplyDeleteHow dismal to get all this rain. And yes, PWL, hope you are all having a safe and happy holiday season. When this weather turns more 'normal' again, will we get some nice snow? Here's hoping..........
ReplyDeleteWow, a rainy, foggy late December day at 40 degrees. Good-bye what little snowpack we had. Yet another winter to drop into the crapper? Time will tell…
ReplyDeleteHi All! Welcome to what we all hope will be an exciting season on this site. Sadly though (once again) things aren’t looking too promising here at the end of December already. We might be able to salvage some ice fishing out of this season. It’s looking relatively cold for the first 2, possibly 3?, weeks of January. As for snow, at this time it’s not looking good. Sure hope that changes. Despite the forecasts all year long that La Niña was going to form, it hasn’t. The cold and snowy forecasts based on La Niña are now out the window.
ReplyDeleteSad. And amazing. All of the long range models literally show a donut of snowfall (all around us) for Minnesota and Wisconsin! C’mon man!
ReplyDeleteDoing the anti-donut dance!!
I was thinking the same thing, PWL. I have been watching that snow donut on the models the past several days. I am not seeing any hope for snow for the metro for at least the first half of January. What a waste of good cold air.
ReplyDeleteSo quiet on here this season. I have been looking ahead searching for snow. No snow in sight through at least the third week of January. Does anyone know the record for the most snowless January in the Twin Cities?
ReplyDeleteWasn’t January 2024 the least snowiest for the TC?
ReplyDeleteAs DJ Kayser says at the Strib P Douglas column today: "Raise your hand if you're tired of seeing no snow on the ground. Only 8.1 inches of snow has fallen at MSP airport this winter....."
ReplyDeleteI believe almost all of that 8.1 inches fell during one snowfall. The predictions of El Nina and above average snowfall so far have fallen flat on its face.
ReplyDeleteas a winter enthusiast and avid snowboarder. these snowless winters are a real bummer! I greatly appreciate the hard working snowmaking teams at the resorts.
ReplyDeleteI hear you and agree. A relative has a ski/snowboard school that travels MN, and last year/this year have been challenging. Thank goodness for snowmaking, most definitely..... last year it was too warm one weekend to even make snow, and the trips had to be cancelled. Here's hoping this cold can stay a while. And snow!
DeleteAs an alpine ski coach, I second the hard work of the snow making crews at the local hills. But ready for the REAL stuff!
ReplyDeleteAn inch of snow tomorrow for the Twin Cities? Another 2-4+ inches Sunday (per Novak)? Here’s hoping it finally gets (and stays) white around here!
ReplyDeleteHere's hoping................
DeleteLooks like up north will be the winners with this clipper (3-5 inches). An inch or so for the metro, then highs in the mid to upper 30’s Thursday and Friday before another (snowless? Arctic front) the end of next week. Will our meager snow cover once again be erased like what happened at Christmas? Models are showing only up to two inches for the metro through the end of January. So far this month MSP has recorded only .8 inches. MSP in January 2005 recorded only 2.8 inches, which I believe is the lowest January snow total recorded?
ReplyDeleteThanks for the info. The STRIB had an interesting article/'machine' a day or two ago where a person can put in the year they were born and then see what the climate was like that year compared to now. Lots of changes, most definitely. Let's see what we get today/tonight. I will put the link, but I don't know if a paywall will stop folks from trying it out. https://www.startribune.com/how-does-2024s-weather-compare-with-your-childhood/601202878
DeleteFrom the Strib weather column today: "By DJ Kayser, filling in for Douglas:
ReplyDeleteWell, at least the ground isn’t brown anymore! As of 6 a.m. Sunday, 0.6 inches of snow had fallen through Saturday night at MSP, bringing us to a whopping 9.5 inches of snow so far this snow season.
Last winter we had only 7 inches through Jan. 12. So at least we can say we’re ahead of last winter! There have been recent years worse than this: The winter of 2004-05 only saw 4.4 inches by this point in the season, with 4.5 inches in 2006-07 and 5.3 inches in 2002-03."
So last winter, with an exception or two, was hot and dry. This winter so far is cold and dry. No sign of snow through the first of February. Perhaps it’s the cynic in me, but I will not be surprised that when we finally start getting moisture around the metro again we will also get warm temperatures so it will rain. Another busted winter snow-wise? I hope the super snowy winter two years ago wasn’t a curse going forward for us snow fans.
ReplyDeleteWow. Per NWS, New Orleans may end up with a snowier January than MSP. One more wow.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like we are going to emerge from the deep freeze. That’s good, but now it appears we are still going to be snowless at least into the second week of February. Last season’s mantra of 14.2 appears to be appropriate again…unfortunately.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I have a FB friend who posted glorious photos of his kids making snow angels and sliding down hills and making snowmen in inches upon inches of snow in Mississippi. Unbelievable. I think Paul D. noted that we are something like 17 inches behind our average snow total for this time of year. I miss snow so much like many here on the blog.
DeleteWell, the TC has very little snowcover, as we all know. Novak is calling for at least three days in the 40’s next week. Say good-bye to our meager snowcover. This time next week it will look and feel like early November. I am hearing there is no chance of snow for the TC through at least the first half of February. Unbelievable!! 14.2 is alive and well.
ReplyDeleteThat is so sad to hear, but I thank you for the update. I'm looking at photos of snow on the beaches of Pensacola yesterday. Un-be-lievable inDEED!!! Thanks again for the dismal forecast for we who love snow.
DeleteSnow drought update: As of this morning the Twin Cities are a foot and a half below average.
ReplyDeleteKare 11 said this morning no snow in sight for TC in the foreseeable future through next weekend. 14.2!!
ReplyDeleteSuddenly something might be simmering for the TC for late next weekend/early the following week? Here’s hoping. Stay tuned…
ReplyDeleteYeah, I'm with Tim. Novak posted this on FB even though I don't see much of anything on outlooks but temps so high during the day that we could get rain. But Novak said: "The first week of FEB (1st - 7th) is going to be interesting as we have a near perfect set-up for a couple of Winter Storms. Stay tuned." I hope he is right, including for the metro area.
ReplyDeleteMultiple days in the low to mid 40’s in the TC this week. Our meager snowcover will melt away. It will look like late October here by the end of the week. Yet another pathetic winter….
ReplyDeleteReally looking forward to a warm-up. The temperatures the last few weeks have stunk. If there isn't any snow, then be warm. If it's going to snow then those temps are fine.
ReplyDeleteTimeanddate is putting out some ridiculously funny computer runs of many inches of snow in the MSP area Feb 1 and Feb 5-9...... it just makes me laugh. By morning it will all be 'gone' from those predictions. But they sure look pretty right now. Oh, how I wish. Lots and lots of snow.
ReplyDeleteThe models did look interesting for the first few weeks of February a few days ago, now not so much.
ReplyDeleteI noticed that too. No surprise here! Novak and others were talking about things becoming very active and snowy by the end of January or the first of February. Now I hear that type of chatter has moved to maybe mid-February. Let’s face it, winter really starts losing its grip around the second week of March in the TC. The best we can hope for is a month of good snow, assuming it materializes at all. This winter is our second in a row to go kaput (except for the ice fishing folks this season). Will we go for a three-peat next season?
DeleteAs Paul D said in today's local paper, regarding models and snow: "...I'm not holding my breath. It doesn't snow around here anymore." So, so sad. Let's start praying for next year, right?
ReplyDeleteHang in there, WeatherGeek! It is still January and we have some good snowstorms ahead of us. We got this. Bring it!!
ReplyDeleteNovak said this evening the Twin Cities will have several opportunities for wintry weather in February. I have heard that from absolutely no other source. I know last year Novak called one or two snowstorms that nobody else saw, so I hope he is on to something again. The Twin Cities is sitting at 9.8 inches of seasonal snowfall as of today. Seven of those inches fell the week before Christmas. Our January snowfall is only 1.7 inches above our July snowfall! Just pathetic!!
ReplyDelete