Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
Monday, December 16, 2024
Real Snow for Thursday?
The eyes of snow lovers are focused on Thursday, when a possibly significant snow may fall. Could this be the snow that sticks around for a certain notable day?
Thanks for the new thread. Here's HOPING for some decent snow. If we can squeeze some out in the metro, hopefully it won't melt for a while, either. Novak is giving me hope over on FB. Thanks again, Bill.
Okay, to see how accurate they are: NWS is putting out a forecast as of 4:53 p.m. today, Monday, calling for up to 1.5" of snow tomorrow afternoon and night; then Wednesday night 1 to 2" and then Thursday 2-4". That's for the MSP area/my west of Mpls zip code. My dad would say, 'I'll believe it when I see it,' but it sounds awesome to me. What do the rest of you see with your computer models?
@WeatherGeek…unfortunately the NWS missed with today’s snow forecast. They are calling for 3-5 inches for Thursday. Hoping they don’t miss that one too. That’s our last chance for a White Christmas this year.
Yeah, today so far is a bummer, Schnee Meister, not that there was much of a chance of more than 'nuisance' snow. Novak just put out a FB post that shows mostly 3-5" for the metro starting midnight Th/through Th..... good to hear from you and hope PWL is dancing to bring us some snow and also hoping Novak's numbers become reality.
This storm has lots of potential. The jet streak is in place. Some moisture coming in from the south. Cold air in place. Love it. Bring it.
The only fly in the ointment is that some models are pushing this a little bit north. The 00 NAM has the heavy band just north of us. The HRRR has it close to Duluth. I trust Novak. He sees it over the cities.
Hey Tim, I was just reading the same thing from the NWS morning discussion. They are still uncertain about how much snow will fall in the TC. They are even talking about the dry slot possibly coming through the TC. Confidence is quite high central MN will be the winners with possibly the TC as a whole receiving little snow at all. I sure hope Novak’s forecast is right.
Thanks for the (sad) updates Tim and Joe. I hope we don't get a dry slot or that it all nudges north, either. Hoping for snow in the metro................
This is why I refrain from getting too excited anymore when several inches of snow are predicted for the TC several days in advance. Often, not always, something goes awry and we receive less, sometimes a lot less, than what had been predicted for several days. I know the NWS has had a pretty bad track record the past couple of years accurately predicting snow for the metro even a day or two before the event. Keeping my fingers crossed the snow won't take a last minute detour and leave the metro high and dry. It's our last chance for a white Christmas. Well, we will know one way or the other tomorrow.
Within the past hour Novak released a comment on his Facebook page regarding tomorrow's snow. He's holding firm with 3-6 inches for most of the metro, possibly a little higher for the northern metro.
You are right, Joe! The totals keep increasing for some parts of the metro...... but gone are the days/years when forecasters got grades and lots of people weighed in w/computer models, etc. here on the blog. Maybe people are afraid to jinx it. The weather changes are so noticeable and winters are so different now........ my grandkid's west metro school district is 'watching' and the teacher sent an email saying it "might" be an elearning day tomorrow..... but it's all 'quiet' everywhere in anticipation: again, 'Will it hold together?' I sure hope so. BRING IT as PWL says and let is SNOW as Schnee Meister says.
I love it when Mr Novak says, "My thoughts have not changed and I'm sticking to my guns." If we get 5-7" in the metro when all the totals are in tonight, it's a good start. Let it now snow the rest of this season. And not melt, yet.
I agree! Novak rules! This is why I hitch my wagon to his forecasts. He's thorough, knowledgeable and experienced...unlike many of the tv meteorologists and some NWS meteorologists. The NWS scare of a dry slot yesterday morning was in stark contrast to Novak's position of "sticking to his guns".
I don't like the rumblings of a huge "heat wave" occurring, per NWS, starting later next week with temperatures 20 degrees above average. Can't we just have and enjoy winter in Minnesota for a change??
Yeah, snows seemed to be 'around us'.. but both Chan and NWS posted 5 inch totals so not too shabby. What is shabby is seeing 'rain' in next week's forecast. I sure hope that changes. Until the next decent snowfall.................
Nice performing clipper. Nice job again, Novak! Let's get that horrible "R" word out of the forecast for late next week and keep the warmup to a minimum. Happy Holidays, Everyone! Let it Snow! Let it Snow! Let it Snow!
Thanks for the new thread. Here's HOPING for some decent snow. If we can squeeze some out in the metro, hopefully it won't melt for a while, either. Novak is giving me hope over on FB. Thanks again, Bill.
ReplyDeleteOkay, to see how accurate they are: NWS is putting out a forecast as of 4:53 p.m. today, Monday, calling for up to 1.5" of snow tomorrow afternoon and night; then Wednesday night 1 to 2" and then Thursday 2-4". That's for the MSP area/my west of Mpls zip code. My dad would say, 'I'll believe it when I see it,' but it sounds awesome to me. What do the rest of you see with your computer models?
ReplyDelete@WeatherGeek…unfortunately the NWS missed with today’s snow forecast. They are calling for 3-5 inches for Thursday. Hoping they don’t miss that one too. That’s our last chance for a White Christmas this year.
ReplyDeleteYeah, today so far is a bummer, Schnee Meister, not that there was much of a chance of more than 'nuisance' snow. Novak just put out a FB post that shows mostly 3-5" for the metro starting midnight Th/through Th..... good to hear from you and hope PWL is dancing to bring us some snow and also hoping Novak's numbers become reality.
DeleteThis storm has lots of potential. The jet streak is in place. Some moisture coming in from the south. Cold air in place. Love it. Bring it.
ReplyDeleteThe only fly in the ointment is that some models are pushing this a little bit north. The 00 NAM has the heavy band just north of us. The HRRR has it close to Duluth. I trust Novak. He sees it over the cities.
So…….Bring it. Dancing. Bring it. Dancing.
Let’s hear from others. Bring that!!
Oh boy, are the Twin Cities about to get shafted? Appears now any real accumulations tomorrow (3 inches plus) will occur north of the TC?
ReplyDeleteHey Tim, I was just reading the same thing from the NWS morning discussion. They are still uncertain about how much snow will fall in the TC. They are even talking about the dry slot possibly coming through the TC. Confidence is quite high central MN will be the winners with possibly the TC as a whole receiving little snow at all. I sure hope Novak’s forecast is right.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the (sad) updates Tim and Joe. I hope we don't get a dry slot or that it all nudges north, either. Hoping for snow in the metro................
DeleteThis is why I refrain from getting too excited anymore when several inches of snow are predicted for the TC several days in advance. Often, not always, something goes awry and we receive less, sometimes a lot less, than what had been predicted for several days. I know the NWS has had a pretty bad track record the past couple of years accurately predicting snow for the metro even a day or two before the event. Keeping my fingers crossed the snow won't take a last minute detour and leave the metro high and dry. It's our last chance for a white Christmas. Well, we will know one way or the other tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteEven if it does snow the 8-14 day forecast will likely take care of a lot of any snow we do have.
DeleteWithin the past hour Novak released a comment on his Facebook page regarding tomorrow's snow. He's holding firm with 3-6 inches for most of the metro, possibly a little higher for the northern metro.
ReplyDeleteWinter Storm Warning for the Twin Cities just now - 5"-7" as guidance is showing the heaviest snow band shifting south. Hope this validates!
ReplyDeleteLet’s go! My dancing is working! Bring it. Let’s have this thing overachieve. Doing the overachiever dance!!!
ReplyDeleteBring it!
Oh YEAH: Winter Storm Warning yaaaaaaas!!!!
ReplyDeleteSweet!! Let it SNOW!! Let it SNOW!!
ReplyDeleteIt seems pretty quiet on here, as compared to usual, giving this is the eve of a pending decent snowfall for the metro.
ReplyDeleteYou are right, Joe! The totals keep increasing for some parts of the metro...... but gone are the days/years when forecasters got grades and lots of people weighed in w/computer models, etc. here on the blog. Maybe people are afraid to jinx it. The weather changes are so noticeable and winters are so different now........ my grandkid's west metro school district is 'watching' and the teacher sent an email saying it "might" be an elearning day tomorrow..... but it's all 'quiet' everywhere in anticipation: again, 'Will it hold together?' I sure hope so. BRING IT as PWL says and let is SNOW as Schnee Meister says.
DeleteBring it!!!!
ReplyDeleteI love it when Mr Novak says, "My thoughts have not changed and I'm sticking to my guns." If we get 5-7" in the metro when all the totals are in tonight, it's a good start. Let it now snow the rest of this season. And not melt, yet.
ReplyDeleteI agree! Novak rules! This is why I hitch my wagon to his forecasts. He's thorough, knowledgeable and experienced...unlike many of the tv meteorologists and some NWS meteorologists. The NWS scare of a dry slot yesterday morning was in stark contrast to Novak's position of "sticking to his guns".
ReplyDeleteI don't like the rumblings of a huge "heat wave" occurring, per NWS, starting later next week with temperatures 20 degrees above average. Can't we just have and enjoy winter in Minnesota for a change??
I agree with you 100%, Tim.
DeleteAll the talk about heavier snow amounts north of 94 it sure appears the heavier amounts are mostly south of 94?
ReplyDeleteThe snow has definitely stayed just south of the metro all afternoon. Too bad. I was hoping another inch or two would fall later today.
ReplyDeleteYeah, snows seemed to be 'around us'.. but both Chan and NWS posted 5 inch totals so not too shabby. What is shabby is seeing 'rain' in next week's forecast. I sure hope that changes. Until the next decent snowfall.................
ReplyDeleteWell it’s nice to see everyone again! Let’s hope for a winter to remember
ReplyDelete6.6 final number at Chan and 5.5 at MSP airport for snow totals from the clipper. Nice.
ReplyDeleteNice performing clipper. Nice job again, Novak! Let's get that horrible "R" word out of the forecast for late next week and keep the warmup to a minimum. Happy Holidays, Everyone! Let it Snow! Let it Snow! Let it Snow!
ReplyDeleteMerry Christmas, Weather Fanatic Friends!!
ReplyDelete