Hope everyone has been well! It has been tough this winter and last for snow lovers, but looks like we may have a shovel-able amount Friday.
From the NWS:
Friday travel or Valentine's Day dinner plans? Perhaps this is a forecast you will not love! Confidence is increasing in accumulating snow for communities along and east of I-35 Friday evening. 2"+ accumulations are most likely in western Wisconsin. Little in the way of snow accumulation expected across western Minnesota.
Thanks for the new thread. Yup. Two tough winters in a row. At least it's colder this one for snow-making. And two inches is better than zip. Let it snow...................
ReplyDeleteYah, at least there is good ice on the lakes, too. I was up at Giant's Ridge on Tuesday, and it looks like proper winter up there - quite a bit of snow. Let's hope for an overachieving Valentine's Day snowfall tomorrow - bring it!
ReplyDeleteI will say the 12Z GFS run pushes watch type snows close to the TCW and se MN. Interesting to see how this plays out.
ReplyDeleteBring it!! Let’s go!! This is the same/opposite of last weekend. Thought a lot, then it was quite tricky. This time, some thought very little and tricky again.
ReplyDeleteBring it!!
NWS forecast discussion this afternoon. Speaking about the Twin Cities, I know what I want to happen, but I also have a feeling of what will likely happen.
ReplyDelete“Possible scenarios. We`ll start with the boom. That comes down to that WAA band going gangbusters by the early afternoon. This is the forcing that will have the potential to produce 1+ inch per hour
snow rates and could easily lay down 3-5" of snow in the course of 4- 6 hours. This would then be followed up by the prolonged light fgen snow Friday night that would likely bring an additional 1-2" of snow. This is what the 13.12 GFS went with. The most likely locations to cash in like this on both forcing sources are out there by Ladysmith and Eau Claire, but it could happen as far west as the Twin Cities. Now for the bust scenario and that is that the WAA forcing doesn`t have enough residence time to saturate the
atmosphere and is already east of the MPX area before it gets going. If that happens, then all we are left with is the prolonged light fgen forced snow Friday night, with snow totals generally in the 1-
3" range. The 13.18 HRRR is probably the best example of this bust scenario.
Headline decision. Given the spread, this wasn`t an easy task, but we went with a Winter Weather Advisory for all of our WI counties with the exception of Polk county. This coincides with areas where we currently have 3-6" of snow in the forecast. In addition, this is where our probabilistic snowfall guidance has probabilities of
exceeding 4" of snow at or above 50%. Given the timing of the snowfall with respect to the Friday evening rush, we strongly considered taking the advisory back across the Twin Cities, but with
the potential for the Twin Cities to get missed by the WAA forcing, which would result in little snow and impact to the evening commute, we kept the Twin Cities headline free for now. Depending on how much moisture lingers on the cold front going into Saturday morning, we may also need to issue a Winter Weather Advisory across the south central MN as well, though we have time to make that decision.
Thanks for the detailed update. I didn't even remember that last year on Valentine's Day MSP got a RECORD 6.9" at the airport. It was such a 'slim snow' winter, I don't even remember it! I'm with you in 'wishing' but obviously seeing from the discussion you posted that.... meh. My local forecast still has a spread of 2-4" and no advisories posted at all, not even for the frigid air that follows.... yet. Thanks again, Tim.
DeleteIt’s mid-February and officially the TC is sitting at 14.1 inches of snow for the season. I am hoping for tomorrow’s system, but it looks like we will only get crumbs again. The big ones are now just missing us to the east. I was reading some weather articles from last October that were warning Minnesota of above average snowfall. Haha…It’s been the exact opposite!
ReplyDeleteWell, we have our WWA. The spread is 2-6 for my zip code. I'm looking forward to it.
ReplyDeleteI just read the NWS post on Twitter about the moisture needing to overcome 19,000 feet of very dry air around the Twin Cities for it to start snowing. I'm seeing totals range from 4-6 (Novak) to 1-3 and now even some saying 1" for the Twin Cities. Those with access to computer models, what are the latest runs showing?
ReplyDeleteYeah, I saw the same discussion on FB. It's 'funny' watching the reactions/comments. Bummer. That's a lot of dry air.
DeleteIn the Winter Weather section, NWS forecast range for TC is 2-5”. Makes sense with recent detailed guidance. However, they also list Albert Lea at 1-9” which is not helpful at all. I’m going to assume the probabilistic forecast is a model and no person reviewed this in detail before posting. Hoping for snow and more concerned for the bitter cold next week.
ReplyDeleteNovak just (around 10 a.m.) posted an update on FB and it reads (and I'm going to go study it more, but reads) "Tricky forecast. It looks like our latest SNOW system will come at us in TWO pieces: One this PM & the other Sunday AM. In general, many of us should receive a healthy 3.0" to 5.0"+ snowfall by noon Sunday."
ReplyDeleteIndeed! That's a nice green blob on the radar parked over us. Let it snow!
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately the “storm factory” Novak excitedly talked about early this month that promised to bring lots of snow to southern MN this month has turned out to be pretty much a dud. Huge warmup coming next week.
ReplyDeleteYeah. Totally depressing. I know we can get snow in March/April, but this is looking a lot like last year.
DeleteTim & WeatherGeek, I feel your pain. Last year through the end of February we had 13.3 inches of snow for the season. This year through the end of February we will only have 15.3 inches of snow for the season. It appears we might have a cold first half of March before it starts really warming up. There is no guarantee any storms will make their way here even if it does turn cold again. This season has shown that it doesn’t snow here (TC and south) when it’s cold and it doesn’t snow when it warms up. I am feeling the winter a couple years ago with the record snows was a curse. It’s been nothing but bone dry here during the winter ever since.
ReplyDeleteToday in the strib Todd Nelson notes: "March is typically our fourth-snowiest month, averaging around 8 inches in the metro." Okay. Eight is better than nil, but 8 is SO FEW. :+( Let's see if we get even that. Maybe you're right, Schnee Meister, and we got a curse that record year. Even that year it rained a couple of times, ruining the 'all time' record attempts, ha ha. Onward. I'll enjoy 'spring' and pray winter snow makes a comeback sometime in March/April.
ReplyDeleteThat’s interesting. Over the last handful of years I have heard March is our snowiest month, then I heard January is our snowiest month. So which is it? Not that it really matters. No month is snowy anymore.
ReplyDeleteI agree, Tony. I remember when I'd hear that 'March is our snowiest month' but with all the changes if one believes in climate change, it's not true anymore. And yeah, sadly the past two years for sure, 'no month is snowy anymore' is right. Like I say, one can also measure snowy winters by the number of threads each year on this blog. But yeah, that is what Mr. Nelson posted on PD's weather column in his stead today.
DeleteI am laughing as Mr. Novak just posted his weekend / early week forecasts on FB and called this 'False Spring.' Oh, don't we who love snow wish.
ReplyDeleteI agree this warmup will be a false spring temperature-wise. However, it appears the cold will be accompanied by dry conditions. I know…I know…surprise, surprise. Here’s hoping something goes awry and it accidentally goes snow.
ReplyDeleteI meant to say I hope it accidentally does (not goes) snow.
ReplyDeleteDig this notation in PD's column today (DJ Kayser filling in): "So far this winter we've had 46 days with a snow depth over 0" (at MSP). Over the past 30 years, we average 86 such days over an entire winter." Wow! Food for thought.
ReplyDeleteIt now looks like the return of the cooler weather won’t be this next weekend after all. A slight cooldown this weekend will be followed by more temps in the 45-50 degree range again by next Monday. In my northwest burbs neighborhood the ground is 99% brown again. Not holding out much hope for anything different through the rest of this season. Will the TC even reach 20 inches of snow for this season? I think even last season’s year without a winter ekeed out around 30 inches (thanks to March)? I sure hope we don’t 3-peat next season.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. For a few hours today, 'Time and Date' was showing 16 inches for March 5, and I posted it on FB for one big fat laugh. Now it's down to about an inch; watch it totally disappear by next week. I hope we hit 20" but that is sure a low number. We need 3.9" if I'm looking at the numbers correctly.... We have all March and even part of April.... one can hope. I'm with you re next season. 3-peat would be pretty bad.
DeleteNovak just posted (over on FB) a 'moderate chance' of some winter weather action around MSP late Tuesday into Wednesday this coming week. The 'bullseye' of higher probability is just east of us (of course).....
ReplyDeleteHere. We. Go!!!!
ReplyDeleteBring it. This storm will have all the ingredients needed for a classic March storm. Will be a blast to see how this unfolds.
Bring it!!!!!
Indeed. I don't even want a new thread. I want NOTHING to jinx this. Dance!
DeletePD Column in the Strib today: "Forty years ago, March was the snowiest month of the year. Now that honor goes to December, with an average of 11.4 inches, followed by January (11), February (9.5) and March (8.2). So much for tournament snowstorms." Those still seem like such paltry sums to me. I'm stunned. If we just had those averages, we would still be in the hole, wouldn't we?
ReplyDeleteNovak's FB map just posted 9 minutes ago puts Eau Claire/Rochester in the 'bullseye'......
ReplyDeleteSouth/east are the 'winners' with a winter storm watch. I'm ready to 'stick a fork in' this winter for where I am in the metro. Two years in a row. Hoping for something better next season!!!! Onward my fellow snow lovers.
ReplyDeleteYou read my mind, Weather Geek. Here in the Maple Grove area (as well as most everywhere else from the metro on south) the ground is as brown as if was late October. That has been the case for 95% of this second consecutive disaster of a winter (snow-wise). There is no indication the metro will even hit 20 inches of snow for the season (currently at 16 inches, 12 of which fell on two days - week before Christmas and Valentine’s). Believe it or not we got slightly more snow during last year’s non-winter! I’m not saying there won’t be a couple cold days here and there and possibly a little snow before the end of April, but for all intents and purposes this pathetic excuse for a winter (again, focusing on the lack of snow. The cold has been present this season for the most part) is over. Wisconsin and Minnesota south and east of the metro enjoy your snow this week. Here’s praying real winter arrives later this year….I’m just not putting my money on it.
ReplyDeleteI hear you, Tim. It's really, really sad. And I couldn't believe that we might not even get 20" of snow in an entire winter... but you are right. I'm in St. Louis Park........ I miss snow.
DeleteWhat cracks me up is all of the predictions of a snowier winter than average! What?!? They couldn’t have been more wrong if they tried! Just goes to show Mom Nature rules and there is so much more to be learned about climate, weather factors, etc. To all of the outlets that predicted a snowier winter than average (here’s looking at you National Weather Service, though you’re not alone) here is your F- grade!
ReplyDeleteI agree, Tony. However, I think it’s very generous to only give an “F minus” grade, despite that being the bottom of the barrel!
ReplyDeleteEveryone just needs to hold their horses. People have written off this storm already and the snow is a full 12 hours away (and the posts were from earlier than that).
ReplyDeleteI see a noticeable shift in some of the models. While the focus is on SE MN, the amounts for the Twin Cities have gone up. I think the power of this storm is creating a larger area of some heavier snow and you can see this in the most recent NAM, NAM3k, HRRR, and even the latest run of the GFS.
This could get fun!!!!
Doing the Hold Your Horses Dance!!!
Bring it!!!
Latest 00Z Euro model has 8” for MSP and surrounding core and HRRR short term model puts down almost 7”….this storm could be the biggest of the winter for MSP and not even a watch or weather headline for it….I suspect MSP will be in a watch or possibly just go straight to a warning for their morning update….the wind and the falling snow warrants it even if we don’t hit 6” but I think this storm will surprise a few people because that dreaded dry air won’t be a factor this time and if we transition to snow sooner then we get more accumulation. Tuesday night/Wednesday will be interesting and fun to watch I’m glad I don’t have to be on the roads.
Delete@Bigdaddy I totally agree there will be surprises. The hot off the press 06Z HRRR and NAM models respectively put down 12” and 10” for MSP. It looks like more moisture to work with this storm, all you nah sayers just 24 hours ago may eat crow this storm is going to be a doozy.
DeleteWarning for the metro just posted.
ReplyDeleteGood call Bigdaddy, Hennipen county(including MSP) is under a warning, I guess those models made them go straight to a warning!
ReplyDeleteHOLY MOLEY! WINTER STORM WARNING? What the heck did I just wake up to??? Woo hooooooooo.
ReplyDeleteP.S. And what I love is I can go to FB and find plenty of great info from Mr. Novak; NOAA hasn't even posted a more succinct forecast and the warning for the metro area, yet.
ReplyDelete